Friday, September 13, 2002

Announcers

When you are living in a house that has DirecTV and you have the MLB Extra Innings package you don't realize how lucky you are (and how used you are to watching about 10 baseball games at a time) until you move to a college dorm and your only choices for baseball are local broadcasts (the Twins for me), ESPN and FOX.

So, the other night without DirecTV, I watched the A's/Angels game on ESPN (or maybe ESPN2, I forget) and came away from it thinking that Tony Gwynn is definitely a very good announcer.
He has a nice voice, he works well with the play-by-play man, he tells some good anecdotes/stories and he obviously has a ton of knowledge about baseball.
Plus, he seems to be a little more sabermetrically inclined than some of the other "analysts" that ESPN uses, such as Rick Sutcliffe or Mike MacFarlane, neither of whom I can stand to listen to for more than about 3 consecutive minutes.

If ESPN's #1 analyst, Joe Morgan, didn't write his (often idiotic) opinions each week on ESPN.com, I would probably like him as an announcer more than I do.
That said, I think Joe is pretty good and along with The Great Jon Miller, they make a very good team.
On the radio side at ESPN, I have really grown fond of Dan Shulman and Soup Campbell, who are very good and seem to have good chemistry.

Anyway, this was probably the 3rd or 4th game I have heard Gwynn do and I have also been reading quite a few of his ESPN.com articles and chat sessions.
And each time I hear or read him, I come away more impressed.

Here is an excerpt from one of Gwynn's recent chat sessions:

Kevin(Sacramento,CA): Thanks for taking the time Tony. I was wondering how you feel about MVP and Cy-Young canidates in both leagues?

Tony Gwynn: "I still think A-Rod is the MVP in the AL. Cy Young? Zito has been awfully good, but Pedro is the best pitcher in the AL. Zito has been good all year, though. In the NL, I think it's between Schilling and Johnson, but Oswalt has come on like gangbusters. That's a three-man race. The NL MVP is still Bonds. He's the best player by far. There are others who will contend."

Notice no mention of John Smoltz for NL MVP, as opposed to some other idiot ESPN.com writers (see Rogers, Phil).

With that statement alone, Gwynn passes my "baseball compatibility test."
Whenever I come across a new baseball writer or someone emails me and I chat with them about baseball or I talk baseball with someone in person, I always put them through my little test.
Basically I check for who the person thinks the 2002 MVP is in each league.
If there is any mention of John Smoltz or Albert Pujols or if they say that Miguel Tejada should be MVP, I immediately know that this person isn't on the same page as I am as far as baseball goes.
Not that a writer can't be good or a person can't be nice to talk baseball with while thinking Tejada or Smoltz is the MVP, he just can't be that good (to me at least).

For the record, I am pretty sure that my uncle and grandfather, with whom I talk baseball with a lot, both do not pass my "baseball compatibility test."
But that doesn't stop me from talking to them, even if they are completely clueless (just joking!)

So now that I am officially cut off from the baseball utopia that is MLB Extra Innings, I thought I would take a little time to give my opinion on some teams' local television announcers.

Before I start, I want to mention that I obviously do not watch every team an equal amount.
All things equal, I tend to watch A's or Giants or Yankees or Braves games and, of course, I never miss a Twins game.
Which is my way of saying that I might not have an extremely developed opinion on the Pittsburgh Pirates' announcing team (although from what I have heard of them, they aren't bad).

My favorite announcers (in no particular order):

Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow, San Fransisco Giants.
Kuip and Kruk, while maybe not the greatest individually, are a super announcing team.
They have nice voices, they work well together and they have good senses of humor.
Of course, it helps them attract me as a viewer when they are the ones announcing Superman's games.
I especially like the "He hits it HIGH, he hits it DEEP, OUTTA HERE!!!!!!!" home run call, which is good no matter if it is for Barry Bonds or David Bell.
Also, I like when they find some "unique" looking person in the audience and "discuss" him or her.
Overall - very good chemistry and fun to listen to (plus, having Bonds as the main attraction doesn't hurt): A.

Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, Minnesota Twins.
These are my local guys and I probably listen to them call over 100 full games each season.
There is nothing extraordinary about either of them really.
Bremer is a very simple play-by-play guy, although he does have a decent sense of humor that occasionally comes out.
Blyleven has a good sense of humor and can sometimes be pretty wacky.
Bert (who is originally from Holland and was born Rik Aalbert) sometimes has a little trouble with elements of the English language.
Nothing big, but he often does stuff like pronounce names wrong.
John Mabry (MAY-BREE) becomes John MAY-BERRY (who is actually an entirely different player) and on some Hispanic or Asian names (and strangely enough, the word "preview"), he doesn't even try.
And listening to him do the "without the express written consent on the Minnesota Twins and Major League Baseball" speech every game can be an interesting experience.
On the other hand, Blyleven loves to say Shigetoshi Hasegawa (who doesn't?) and will usually work the name into a broadcast at least once every 10 games or so, even when the Mariners (and previously the Angels) aren't even playing the Twins.
Bremer also has a weird thing with Ichiro Suzuki's name where he calls him EESH-E-ROW.
So, you're asking, why do you think these guys are good if they can't even pronounce anything?
Well, they usually pronounce everything well, but when you watch them call 1,000 innings a year, you notice some things.
And with Blyleven, it is a lot funnier than it is annoying.
Plus, they are definite Twins homers and as a Twins homer myself, I enjoy that.
On the negative side, somewhere along the line Blyleven started circling fans with his telestrator.
It was amusing for about 2 weeks, but now they are at the point where tons of people brings signs to games (even road games) and Blyleven is circling about 3 groups of people every half inning.
It's not so amusing anymore.
Overall - a solid but unspectacular duo that have a good chemistry and generally have fun in the booth: B.

Vin Scully, Los Angeles Dodgers.
Quite simply, the best.
I love to watch late night baseball and in Minnesota all the West coast games start at 9 pm, which is perfect.
And the West coast has a lot of interesting teams to pick from, with the Giants and A's being two of my favorites.
However, I find myself watching an awful lot of Dodgers' games, even though I am not really a fan of the Dodgers and even though I don't find them particularly interesting, simply because of Vin Scully.
Now, Scully is getting up there in years and he will occasionally make a mistake on a name or something like that.
But for pure announcing ability and style, it doesn't get any better than Vin Scully.
I would listen to him read the phone book.
Overall - one of the all-time greats who is still very good. For pure late night baseball enjoyment and a nice, easy, relaxing style along with an awesome voice, nothing beats Vin Scully: A.

Skip Carey, Joe Simpson, Don Sutton and Pete Van Wieren, Atlanta Braves.
As far as quality and quantity, nothing beats the Braves' announcers.
Carey and Van Wieren are both quality play-by play guys, although I like Carey (who is Harry's son and Chip's father - more on that later) more than Van Wieren.
Simpson and Sutton are very good analysts too, although Sutton can get a little repetitive at times.
They rotate in and out of the booth (switching between TV and radio), which always seems weird to me no matter what team is doing it.
Overall - Four very good announcers who generally have a very good chemistry with each other established. I enjoyed listening to them on TBS before I got DirecTV and I still enjoy them: B+.

Josh Lewin and Tom Grieve, Texas Rangers.
I try to watch ARod as much as possible, so I find myself listening to these two quite often.
Lewin is a very good play-by-play guy, although his one major weakness is his voice, which isn't very good.
Grieve is a good color guy who adds a lot to the broadcast and seems to have a good chemistry with Lewin, despite not working together for very long (Lewin used to be in Detroit).
Overall, a very solid duo who are knowledgeable and interesting: B.

Michael Kay, Ken Singleton, Bobby Murcer and Jim Kaat, New York Yankees.
For those of you wondering where Suzyn Waldman (their alternate play-by-play person and "sideline reporter") is on the cast list, well, I left her off because I think she is absolutely horrendous.
I like the rest of the Yankees' broadcasters, so I didn't want to ruin their entire grade by including Waldman.
She has a bad, annoying voice and is not the greatest play-by-play person ever.
As for the normal play-by-play guy, Michael Kay, he is pretty good.
Although a little smug and sometimes annoying, he has a good sense of humor despite sometimes trying to be too funny/witty.
He is generally very solid.
The strength of this team is the analyst duo of Ken Singleton and Jim Kaat.
My favorite Yankee broadcasts are the ones in which Singleton and Kaat are alone in the booth, without a true play-by-play person.
They both have good voices and good senses of humor, especially when they are together.
Bobby Murcer is decent, although I much prefer Kaat or Singleton.
Overall - For sheer quantity of announcers and pre-game people, they dominate. As you would expect from the Yankees, their broadcasters are some of the best in the business: B+.

Honorable mention:

Dave Niehaus, Seattle Mariners play-by-play (I am not a big fan of the rest of the Seattle crew, but I enjoy Niehaus and you gotta love his home run call, "FLY AWAY!")

Keith Hernandez, New York Mets analyst (Keith appears to be a colassal jerk, but I think he is a pretty good announcer. Plus, you gotta love the Seinfeld appearance.)

Dewayne Staats, Tampa Bay Devil Rays play-by-play (He has an absolutely horrendous, fake, radio-DJ voice, but he is actually a pretty good announcer once you get past that.)

Joe Buck, St. Louis Cardinals play-by-play (Joe has been the FOX national announcer for baseball for a few years, but I like him more on the local broadcasts, possibly because he is without Tim McCarver, who I cannot stand).

My least favorites announcers (in no particular order):

Chip Carey, Joe Carter and Dave Otto, Chicago Cubs.
Now, I would like to watch a lot of Cubs games.
Sammy Sosa is a lot of fun to watch and they are often the only game on during the day time.
However, as much as I try, I cannot stand to watch a game being announced by Chip Carey.
I like his dad (as I said before) and I liked his grandfather (although he was almost done by the time I was watching him) but I cannot stand him.
And being teamed with Joe Carter and Dave Otto doesn't help matters much either.
Both of them are horrible and full of cliches and idiocy, which, along with Chip Carey's annoying voice and overall stupidity, make for unwatchable Cubs games.
I was trying to think of a positive for the Chipster and the only thing I came up with is that I think he has a decent home run call, "The 2-1 pitch to Sosa...swung on and BELTED TO LEFT."
It's actually pretty good.
Overall - Absolutely horrible from top to bottom. The voices are bad, the opinions are bad and the cliches are worse: F.

Hawk Harrelson and Darrin Jackson, Chicago White Sox.
Geez, I feel sorry for baseball fans in Chicago.
When I was little I used to watch White Sox games on WGN all the time and I really loved Hawk and Wimpy (Tom Paciorek).
Over the years, I stopped liking them so much.
And when the Sox got rid of Paciorek and brought in Darrin Jackson that officially made them one of my least favorite teams.
As with Chip Carey, I actually like Hawk Harrelson's home run call (You can put in on the board...YYYYYEEEESSSS!!!!!", which a lot of people hate.
Other than that, there isn't much to like.
They are extremely homerish, to the point that it gets very annoying, especially as a Twins fan.
Darrin Jackson adds absolutely nothing.
Overall - Very annoying, although not horrible to listen to in very small doses. Good home run call and not much else positive (although calling Herbert Perry the Milkman was fun and saying "Norton, you're the greatest" for every good Greg Norton moment was okay): C-.

Matt Vasgergian, San Diego Padres.
To tell you the truth, I don't even know who the Pads' analyst is, but it doesn't really matter.
Their play-by-play guy, Matt Vasgergian, is absolutely horrendous.
You may remember him from his stint as the announcer of the XFL.
He was also the Brewers' announcer for a while, which is when I first learned to hate him.
Here is a quote from MattVasgerian.com (yes, there is such a thing!):

"Matt Vasgersian wears many hats, but he is best known as the witty, yet clever lead television commentator for the Milwaukee Brewers, a team he had covered since 1997 prior to joining the Padres. Broadcasts never see a dull moment with the youthful Vasgersian at the microphone. His enthusiastic and creative home run calls have become a major staple of highlight reels on all of the major sports networks."

That paragraph, which was no doubt meant as a positive, is all you need to know about how bad Matt Vasgerian is.
He tries to be witty and clever, but he isn't.
He is smug and pushy, the kind of guy you just want to punch in the face after a while.
I like home run calls a lot and think that a signature call is a real plus for an announcer, but just as I don't like "Booyah!" or "Bonds dials long distance!" on Sportscenter, I don't like Vasgergian's homer calls, which are basically just Sportscenter phrases said during a baseball game, as opposed to during baseball highlights.
Overall, perhaps the most grating announcer of them all because of his smugness and "youthfulness," which is just a code word for someone trying to be really cool, which isn't what I want from my baseball announcer: F.

Dis-honorable mention:

Daron Sutton and Bill Schroeder, Milwaukee Brewers (As with everything related to the Brewers (the team, the ballpark, the ownership) the announcing team is horrible).

Rex Hudler, Anaheim Angels analyst (Wonder Dog appears to be one of the nicest and most hyperactive men on the planet. His hyperactive and overly-enthusiastic style can become a little too much if you watch him too often. My Hudler limit is usually about once a week).

Chris Berman, ESPN (I know, I know, he isn't a local announcer, but he is so bad that I couldn't leave him out. No matter if he is doing baseball or shows like NFL Countdown, he simply will not shut up. And it isn't as if he really has anything to say either. He just sort of babbles and rambles on about stuff that doesn't even make sense half the time. It's like he gets lost in his own voice and can't remember what he was talking about, so he just repeats stuff over and over and makes up new stuff that doesn't really have a point. He can talk for 2 straight minutes, finish, and you have no idea what he was talking about because it was just mindless babble.)

Okay, there you have it, my thoughts on the baseball television announcers across the country.
If you have any thoughts or opinions of your own on this subject, feel free to send them to me at AaronGleeman@aol.com and if I like it, I'll post it on the site (yippee!)

Thursday, September 12, 2002

One year ago

I am here to talk about baseball and I generally try to be lighthearted and humorous, so I won't even try to write anything that could possibly add something new or useful to the anniversary of September 11th, 2001.
I will always remember where I was when I first heard about the attacks (about to leave for an early morning class) and I will always remember the feeling of sitting in the TV lounge in the dorm with about three times the rooms' capacity of people, all staring in disbelief at the television screen in front of us.
And that was in Minnesota, miles and miles away from the events that took place.
I can't even imagine what it was like for those who were there.
I extend my deepest sympathy and condolences to all of those who lost loved ones that day and my gratitude goes to all those who risked their own lives to try to help others.

Now, as if it really matters in comparison, a little baseball talk...

Over at David Pinto's Baseball Musings, last year's standings, as of September 11th, are posted.

We all know the basics.
Seattle was at 104-40, which is just freaking ridiculous really.
The Twins were in the middle of a complete collapse and had already fallen 6 games behind Cleveland.
The Yankees led the BoSox by 13 games.
Arizona was struggling to hold off the Giants and were only 1.5 games ahead of them and 3 ahead of the Dodgers.
The Braves only had a 3.5 game lead in their division (they are 21 games up right now).
Houston was 5 games in front of St. Louis (they eventually ended up in a 1st place tie).

And this season, a lot of things are pretty similar...

4 out of 6 division leaders as of September 11th last year are once again leading their division on September 11th this year.
The other two leaders are the Twins (who were in 2nd a year ago) and the A's (who were in 2nd too, with a 87-57 record and 17 games back of the Mariners!).
The Devil Rays still suck and if I am still writing this blog on September 11th, 2020, I will probably be able to say the same exact thing (unless the D-Rays are non-existant by then).
And the AL West is still baseball's best division.

Here are the biggest differences in winning % from last year at this time to this year:

Winning % went up:
Anaheim Angels +.111
Atlanta Braves +.092
Cincinnati Reds +.087
Montreal Expos +.063
Baltimore Orioles +.061
Boston Red Sox +.055
Pittsburgh Pirates +.053
Minnesota Twins +.051

Winning % went down:
Seattle Mariners -.139
Cleveland Indians -.125
Chicago Cubs -.124
Milwaukee Brewers -.086
San Diego Padres -.069
Houston Astros -.049
Toronto Blue Jays -.042
Philadelphia Phillies -.041

Last September 11th the Twins were actually scheduled to play the same team they played today, the Detroit Tigers.

Today the Twins scored 6 runs in the 2nd inning and went on to beat the Tigers 8-2, completing a 3 game sweep and lowering their "magic number" to 4.

Apparently me writing a two-part entry on what the Twins should do in the playoffs wasn't enough to jinx them, which is surprising.

Today's win was especially nice for the Twins because it came against a quality left-handed starting pitcher, Mark Redman (who is a former Twin and was traded for Todd Jones last year, YUCK!).

The Twins had 6 hits (including a homer and a double) off of Redman in only 1 2/3 innings.

And in the first game of the series, Monday night, the Twins did pretty well off of another (not-so-quality) left-handed starter, Mike Maroth.
They got him for 5 runs off of 8 hits (including 3 doubles and a triple) and a walk, in 6 IP.

It's only two games and Maroth and Redman aren't Zito and Mulder (or even Scully and Mulder), but at least it is something.

In other news...

I somehow forgot to mention this before, but last week I had my first official journalism class here at the U of M and while the professor was discussing the various types of media out there she basically said "Any schmuck can have a Blog."

Okay...she didn't actually say schmuck.
It was actually said in a very teacherly, professional way, but still!

And I'm not really saying she's wrong...

Tuesday, September 10, 2002

Those damn lefties (Part 2)

For those of you who didn't read yesterday's part 1 of this entry, I urge you to do so before going any further.

Okay, are you finished reading it?
Good.
It was really a great entry wasn't it?
Oh, you're so kind.

Before I get to the pitching aspect of the Twins in the playoffs, I just want to add one thing to what I originally said about the hitting...

In the playoffs the Twins would be best served to take an approach similar to the Oakland A's as far as base stealing goes.
You see, the Twins have some fast players, but for whatever reason, they are the worst team in Major League Baseball at stealing bases.
As of this moment, they have stolen 72 bases and have been caught 60 times, an absolutely horrible rate of "success."

The playoffs often consist of low scoring games and the Twins, especially against lefties, are going to have to work very hard to scrape together as many runs as possible.
And making outs and losing runners on the basepaths is not the way to go about that.

On to the pitching...
(Please keep in mind that this is what I think the Twins SHOULD do, not what I think they WILL do)

In any game starting pitching is key, but in the playoffs it becomes even more important.
The reason for this is pretty simple, you just cannot have a starting pitcher pitch a "disaster start" and expect to have any reasonable shot of winning a playoff game.

And what is a disaster start?
Well, I first heard the term last year from Jim Baker's (now of ESPN.com) daily email newsletter.
He defined a disaster start as one in which the pitcher gives up as many or more runs as innings pitched.
For example, 2 IP/6 ER or 5 IP/7 ER or 2/3 IP/11 ER.
Get it?
In the regular season teams frequently get disaster starts and sometimes they even manage to win the games.
But in the playoffs, when teams are facing the other team's top starting pitchers, you cannot afford to have a guy give up 6 runs in 5 innings.

All of which is my way of saying that the Twins decision on who will start their playoff games is extremely important.

Because of injuries, the Twins have had 7 different guys start at least 10 games this year.
One of them, Matt Kinney, got injured and sent to the minors, so that leaves 6 possibilities for a starting assignment in the playoffs:
(in order of games started):
Rick Reed
Kyle Lohse
Eric Milton
Brad Radke
Johan Santana
Joe Mays

All of them have pitched well, either this season or last season, so the decision is that much tougher.
That said, I believe starting spots 1-3 would be relatively easy choices for me to make...

Game 1: Eric Milton

Eric Milton got injured in early August and is just now coming back.
He pitched 3 innings on September 2nd against Seattle and 4 innings on Sunday against Oakland.

His totals for those two, post-injury games:
7 IP
10 H
5 ER
4 K
2 BB
2 HR

So obviously, while those numbers aren't horrible, he is not back to 100% yet.
But that is okay, he still has several weeks to round back into form and the Twins don't have to worry about him winning games down the stretch.
So, assuming Milton regains his form, he would be my choice for the starter of game 1.

A couple of main reasons for this...

1) When he is on his game, he is the most dominant starter the Twins have.
What I mean by that is, when he is at the top of his game, he has the best chance of throwing a shutout or going very deep into the game while allowing 0 or 1 run.

2) He started off slow this year, but since the all-star break he has been very good.
In his last start before he was injured Milton threw a complete game, 3 hit/11 strikeout/0 walk, shutout against the White Sox.
In his last 7 starts before the injury, including the shutout against Chicago, here are his stats:

52 Innings (7.4 IP/start)
16 Earned Runs (2.77/8 IP)
35 Hits (6.1/9 IP)
47 Strikeouts (8.1/9 IP)
7 Walks (1.2/9 IP)

And he was 5-1 (with a no-decision) during that stretch.
Those are the kind of numbers you want from your #1 starter.

3) He is left handed.
As I already talked about in part 1 of this entry, some teams (like the Twins) have trouble with a pitcher that throws with a certain hand (like left handed).
If I were another team facing the Twins and I saw their struggles against lefties, I would throw as many left handed starters at them as was reasonably possible.
So, wouldn't it figure then that the Twins should do the same thing (throw lots of lefties) at other teams?
Well, lets find out.
The Twins most likely first round opponent is Oakland.

Oakland versus righties = .268/.345/.447
Oakland versus lefties = .253/.324/.415

Not quite as big of a drop-off as the Twins have, but is still pretty significant.
Against a lefty, the A's lose about 15 points of batting average, 20 points of on-base % and 30 points of slugging %.
Which is all the more reason to start Milton is game 1.

Game 2: Rick Reed

Coming into this season, Rick Reed was the Twins #4 starter and (as I wrote an entry about earlier) many people (myself included) thought that trading for him had turned out to be a big mistake.
But this season, and particularly since the all-star break, Rick Reed has been very good.

His post break numbers:

74 Innings
2.69 ERA
69 Hits
50 Strikeouts
5 Walks
8 Wins and 2 Losses

Reed was only mediocre in the first half of the year (4.62 ERA) but since then he has dramatically cut down on the amount of home runs he allows (19 in 97 first half IP vs. 9 in 74 second half IP), while increasing his strikeouts slightly.
And he is at the point now where he basically just does not walk people.
Plus, he has some prior playoff experience with the Mets in 1999 and 2000, which might make a difference to those people who believe that sort of stuff matters.

I know I already said that throwing lefties against the A's would be a good idea (and Reed is right handed), but since the Twins only have two lefties to choose from, you need a righty anyway, so why not throw in game 2, between Milton and...

Game 3: Johan Santana

This is where my choice and Ron Gardenhire's eventual choice is most likely to differ.

Gardenhire may decide to go with a more "veteran" pitcher or simply decide not to go with such an "inexperienced" pitcher.
His choice to not start Santana may have already been shown to us, as Johan has been working out of the pen for the last couple of weeks.
In fact, he relieved Eric Milton in the two post-injury starts that I talked about before.

But Johan Santana is, if you look at it objectively and without any kind of bias, the best choice, because Santana has simply been great this year.

I wrote an entry about him last month in which I discussed, among other things, his amazing strikeout rate.

At the time of the entry, Santana was striking out 11.81/9 innings, which was a higher rate than any other starter in baseball, including Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and whomever else you want to mention.

Right now, for the season, Santana is striking out 11.32/9 innings.
So his strikeout rate has dropped a tiny bit since then, but guess what?
It is still good for 2nd in all of baseball, behind only Randy Johnson, who is striking out 11.49/9 innings.

I need to point out now, as I did then, that Johan has not pitched enough innings to qualify for the league leaders in strikeouts/9 innings.
But, he has thrown almost 100 innings so far, so this is far from a fluke.

Santana's numbers this year:

97 Innings
3.35 ERA
87 Hits
122 Strikeouts
45 Walks
7 Homers

Those are some pretty impressive numbers.
He is striking out tons of guys, he is keep the ball in the ballpark and he has kept his walk rate at an acceptable level.
And those 3 things are the key to pitching (for those of you that want a little more info on why I think that, click here).

And, as an added bonus, Santana is a lefty.

Okay, so now you know who I would start in games 1-3.
Depending on the amount of days in between games (and whether or not their is a 3 game sweep), the Twins may also need to use a 4th starting pitcher.
And that is where it gets very tricky.

Kyle Lohse has been very good this season after being pretty bad last season.
Brad Radke has been very good in past seasons, but has been injured and primarily ineffective this season.
Joe Mays was great last season, but has been injured and extremely inconsistent this season.

Assuming we play Oakland in round 1, here are a few things that I would base my decision on...

Kyle Lohse:
Lohse (who throws right handed) is extremely effective against right handed hitters, holding them to .208/.270/.350 this year.
However, he struggles big time against lefties, who hit .318/.403/.544 against him.
Those two stats are enough for me to not start Kyle Lohse in game 4 of a series against Oakland.
The Oakland left handed hitters, which includes Eric Chavez, David Justice, John Mabry, Scott Hatteberg, Terrence Long, Greg Myers and switch hitter Ray Durham, would all likely be in the lineup against Lohse, which would mean trouble for the Twins.

So Lohse is out, how about...

Joe Mays:
Joe Mays was absolutely great last season, probably one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball.
But he was horrible from the very start this season and they soon found out that he was pitching with an injury.
So he went on the DL for a while and came back in late July.
Since then he has been extremely inconsistent, mixing in great games (like his shutout against Pedro and the Red Sox) with horrible ones (like his 2 inning/6 run game against Chicago on August 21st or his 5 inning/12 hit/8 run game against the Royals on August 5th).

Coincidentally enough, Mays' last two starts have come against Oakland.

Start 1 (September 1st):
6 IP
10 H
4 ER

Start 2 (September 7th):
7.1 IP
5 H
1 ER

So, just as he has been all season, Mays has been inconsistent in his last two starts, both against the A's.

I just think Mays is too much of a "disaster start" risk.
More than any other Twins' starting pitcher, Mays has a chance to give up tons of runs in not very many innings, and as I said before, you simply cannot have that in the playoffs.

So, Mays is out, which leaves...

Brad Radke:

Radke has been the Twins best and most reliable pitcher during his 8 seasons.
He pitched over 200 innings in 6 straight seasons, before getting injured this year.
So, like Mays, Radke is a pitcher who has been effective in the past, but who has been injured this year.
Radke came back on August 3rd and has made every one of his starts since (7 total).
Also like Mays, his most recent start came against Oakland.

Last Friday:
9 IP
0 ER
6 H
5 K
1 BB

And against Oakland for the year, Radke has 2 starts totaling 15 innings, with a 1.20 ERA.
Plus, he has shown the ability, both this year and in the past, to do as well against lefties as he does against righties, which is important against those Oakland lefty bats.
So, Brad Radke is my 4th starter (if one is needed).

Now, what about the bullpen?

I'll try to be brief, because this post is getting really really long and I want to finish before the actual playoffs start...

Eddie Guardado will close, of course.
J.C. Romero will do what he has done all year, which is be the most important member of the bullpen, coming into games whenever and wherever an extremely important out needs to be had before the 9th inning.

Beyond those two however, I don't have the most confidence in the rest of the pen.

Mike Jackson has been very mediocre since the all-star break (4.97 ERA).
Latroy Hawkins is still Latroy Hawkins, which means I wouldn't have him pitching anywhere near a close playoff game, plus his post break ERA is on the wrong side of 4.00.
Tony Fiore has been very good all season long (he has a 2.64 ERA as a reliever this year), but he still scares me for whatever reason.
Maybe it is because he throws his best pitch, an ephus/palm ball, about as hard as I do.
That said, before the late innings, with men on base and a right-handed hitter at the plate, Fiore would probably be the best option and the best bet for getting the batter to pop up.

So those are the normal members of the pen, but this is the playoffs, so Joe Mays and Kyle Lohse would both be available to pitch in relief.

As I discussed before, I would like to keep Mays out of the game if at all possible.
However, if something were to happen that knocked the Twins' starter out of the game early, Mays would be my choice to come in and try to pitch deep into the game.
Unlike Lohse, Mays doesn't have an extreme platoon split that favors lefties, so he would be the safer bet to pitch multiple innings against the A's.

And finally, while Kyle Lohse does get knocked around pretty well by lefties, he is great against right handed batters.
I would put Lohse into the right handed setup role, using him against Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, Adam Piatt, Mark Ellis or Ramon Hernandez (although Piatt, Ellis and especially Hernandez would likely be pinch hit for).

How I would use the pen:
Closer: Eddie Guardado
Reliever saved for the most important non-9th inning at bats of the game (otherwise known as the RSFTMIN9IABOFG): J.C. Romero
Right handed setup: Kyle Lohse
Right handed middle-man: Tony Fiore
Right handed middle-man #2: Mike Jackson
For use in emergency situations only: Latroy Hawkins
Long relief/mop up: Joe Mays

There you have it, the complete blueprint for what the Twins should do in the playoffs.

Now, if only Ron Gardenhire was a reader of this site...

Monday, September 09, 2002

Those damn lefties

I have been putting off this entry for a while.
Mostly because I didn't want to jinx anything.
But now it seems pretty safe, so I will go ahead and chance it...

What should the Twins do in the playoffs?

This is normally an interesting question that faces every playoff team, but it is even more important for the Twins because of their "unique" situation.

During the Twins/A's game that was on ESPN2 tonight, the following stat flashed up:

Minnesota Twins' Batting Average:
Versus Righties = .285 (1st in the Majors)
Versus Lefties = .246 (23rd in the Majors)

Now normally I am the first one to point out that batting average does not mean everything.
But it does mean something, and that is what has me worried come playoff time.

The strength of the Twins offense is dominating right handed pitching and that has carried them throughout the season (they are 65-35 in games against a right handed starting pitcher).
But come playoff time, they are gonna be seeing a whole lot of (excellent) left handed pitching and they are 17-26 in games against a left handed starter.

If the Twins want to succeed in the playoffs against that left handed pitching they are going to have to change something, because continuing to play the same guys against lefties (the ones who have combined to hit .246 against them) is simply not going to get it done.
For an example of this check out the last two ball games, in which the Twins were shutout by two lefties that they are likely to see in the playoffs, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.

Which brings me back to my original question, what SHOULD the Twins do in the playoffs?

Another question might be what WILL the Twins do in the playoffs, but I am not really sure if Ron Gardenhire will play the percentages or not, as he has shown a tendency to do both this year.

So, instead of trying to guess what he will do, here is what I would do:

My 25 man playoff roster:

A.J. Pierzynski - C
Tom Prince - C
Matthew LeCroy - C/1B/DH

Doug Mientkiewicz - 1B
David Ortiz - DH/1B
Luis Rivas - 2B
Cristian Guzman - SS
Corey Koskie - 3B
Denny Hocking - 2B/SS/3B

Jacque Jones - LF
Torii Hunter - CF
Bobby Kielty - RF/LF/CF
Dustan Mohr - RF/LF
Michael Cuddyer - RF/LF/3B/1B/DH

Eric Milton - SP
Rick Reed - SP
Brad Radke - SP
Joe Mays - SP
Kyle Lohse - SP
Johan Santana - SP/RP

Tony Fiore - RP
Mike Jackson - RP
Latroy Hawkins - RP
J.C. Romero - RP
Eddie Guardado - CL

Okay, so now that we know who I would have available to play in the playoffs, where and when should they play?

My lineup versus righties:

1) Jacque Jones, LF (.327/.366/.567 vs righties)
2) Bobby Kielty, RF (.304/.425/.503)
3) Corey Koskie, 3B (.280/.384/.459)
4) David Ortiz, DH (.306/.379/.547)
5) Torii Hunter, CF (.293/.332/.534)
6) Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B (.263/.370/.391)
7) A.J. Pierzynski, C (.312/.349/.451)
8) Cristian Guzman, SS (.290/.304/.378)
9) Luis Rivas, 2B (.268/.321/.385)

Basically, the Twins hit righties pretty well!

Gardenhire seems to be completely insistent upon putting Guzman in the #2 hole.
However, his on-base % is pretty horrible and replacing Guzy (.308 OBP) with Kielty (.425 OBP) or even Mientkiewicz (.370 OBP) in the #2 spot in the lineup would mean a lot more men on base for Koskie, Ortiz and Hunter to drive in, which could be key in a low scoring playoff game.
As for the rest of the lineup, it is pretty simple.
Guzman gets dropped to 8th, putting the best speed and the worst OBPs (Guzman and Rivas) at the bottom of the lineup.

Gardenhire may end up starting Dustan Mohr in RF over Kielty as he has done most of this season.
But he really shouldn't, just as Kielty should have been getting more ABs this entire year.
Mohr is hitting .309/.342/.486 against righties, about 80 points less of on-base % than Kielty, which should be enough to end all talk of Mohr starting.
He would be a nice asset to have available in case Gardy gets brave and wants to pinch hit for Guzman or Rivas in the late innings.
The other bench guys versus righties would be Prince, Hocking, Cuddyer and LeCroy.
None of them are hitting higher than .240 against righties, so they aren't even really options.

Okay, that was the simple part, now what about against lefties...

My lineup versus lefties:

1) Denny Hocking, 2B (.379/.443/.485 against lefties)
2) Bobby Kielty, LF (.268/.395/.366)
3) Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B (.267/.377/.422)
4) Torii Hunter, CF (.306/.358/.531)
5) Matthew LeCroy, DH (.275/.318/.500)
6) Corey Koskie, 3B (.248/.358/.380)
7) Michael Cuddyer, RF (only 30 ABs versus lefties)
8) Cristian Guzman, SS (.237/.259/.371)
9) Tom Prince, C (.222/.321/.319)

And there you see the problem.
There is just not very much to work with against southpaws.

The main adjustments I made that are different from what Gardenhire often does is a) putting Jacque Jones on the bench, b) putting Dustan Mohr on the bench and c) putting Denny Hocking in the lineup.

Jacque Jones has never been able to hit lefties and this season is no different.
Jacque is hitting .211/.255/.346 against them this year, which is actually an improvement over what he did against them last season (.182/.224/.200).
The outfield is actually a place where the Twins have decent options against left handed pitching, so there should be absolutely no reason for Jacque Jones to start.
While Kielty has not been great against lefties, he has managed to get on-base at a great clip against them (.395 OBP) despite his mediocre batting average.

Like Jones, another outfielder, Dustan Mohr, simply does not hit lefties.
He is hitting an anemic .203/.288/.339 against them this season.
Yet Gardenhire continues to give him tons of ABs.
I would put Mohr on the bench and let Cuddyer take his hacks.
Cuddyer has not hit lefties very well either (.200/.226/.333) but it is in a very limited numbers of at bats, 30, compared to Mohr's 118.
Cuddyer has shown the ability to hit for average and power in the minors and should be given the opportunity against left handers, over Dustan Mohr.

And finally I would make absolutely sure Denny Hocking was in the lineup.
Believe it or not (and I don't blame you if you choose not) Denny Hocking is hitting .379/.443/.485 against left handers this season!
It is only 66 at bats, but with the lack of hitting this team has against lefties, Hocking needs to be out there.
As for who he replaces, it doesn't much matter, as both Rivas and Guzman have been horrible against lefties this year.
I took out Rivas because I think having Hocking at 2B instead of Rivas is better defensively than having Hocking at SS in place of Guzman.

The bench guys would be Jones, Mohr, Rivas, Pierzynski and Ortiz.
Jones, Ortiz, Pierzynski and even Mohr would be great pinch hitters to have on the bench if/when a right handed reliever is brought into the game.
And Rivas would be a nifty pinch runner for someone like LeCroy or Prince late in the game.

Another possible option would be to replace Prince with Pierzynski.
A.J. has improved his hitting against lefties this season, to the point where he isn't completely worthless (.247/.260/.397).
However, he still struggles against lefties and Gardenhire will almost certainly start Prince at C.

Yet another possibility would be to start Ortiz at DH and move LeCroy behind the plate.
This is also not very likely to happen, because Gardenhire is likely unwilling to sacrifice defense behind the plate by having LeCroy there instead of Prince, and I can't say that I really blame him.
Also, it doesn't help that Ortiz has suddenly forgotten how to hit lefties.
From 1999-2001 Ortiz hit .313/.376/.542 against south paws, including .423/.483/.654 against them in 2000!
But this season Ortiz has struggled like everyone else, hitting only .200/.243/.379.

So there you have it, what the Twins SHOULD be doing in the playoffs, as far as lineups are concerned.
I'll be back later with my pitching decisions...

Sunday, September 08, 2002

Splitsville

As an admitted baseball/stats geek, one of my favorite things to do is check out player "splits."
For those of you not familar with splits, it has nothing to do with gymnastics.
Splits are the various ways that a player's stats can be broken down into categories.
Some examples of splits include: road games, home games, vs. lefties, vs. righties, pre all-star, post all-star, batting leadoff, batting cleanup, wearing boxers, wearing briefs and on and on and on.

Here are some interesting players and their splits that I came across while strolling through the stats...
(For those of you that are new to the world of baseball geekdom, .300/.400/.500 represents a players batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage).

Alfonso Soriano
VS Boston = .343/.378/.671 (70 ABs)
0-0 count = .477/.484/.852 (88 ABs)
0-2 count = .211/.211/.355 (76 ABs)
Another reason for Yankees' fans to love Soriano, he kills the BoSox.

Derek Jeter
Pre All-Star = .312/.385/.456 (349 ABs)
Post All-Star = .283/.361/.365 (219 ABs)

Alex Rodriguez
VS Righties = .333/.418/.700 (403 ABs)
VS Lefties = .263/.353/.489 (137 ABs)
0-0 count = .431/.525/1.078 (51 ABs)
Runner in Scoring Position = .385/.488/.762 (130 ABs)
Runner on 2nd = .425/.521/1.225 (40 ABs)
ARod strangely having some trouble with lefties. If he ever gets a normal platoon split for a righty (better against lefties) look out!
I get the feeling that the Rangers' runners like to give signs to ARod when he's up and they are on 2nd base.

Bernie Williams
April = .236/.367/.292 (89 ABs)
May = .374/.455/.670 (115 ABs)
August = .402/.453/.564 (117 ABs)
Post All-Star = .379/.438/.534 (219 ABs)

Ichiro!
VS Righties = .318/.384/.413 (402 ABs)
VS Lefties = .368/.430/.493 (152 ABs)
Pre All-Star = .357/.430/.461 (347 ABs)
Post All-Star = .290/.338/.391 (207 ABs)
0-0 count = .413/.532/.640 (75 ABs)
Ichiro! has completely reversed his lefty/righty platoon split from last year.
Is it possible the league is finally figuring him out after about a season and a half?

Vlad Guerrero
VS Righties = .351/.410/.644 (413 ABs)
VS Lefties = .278/.424/.470 (115 ABs)
0-0 count = .343/.462/.676 (108 ABs)
0-2 count = .218/.232/.309 (55 ABs)

Lance Berkman
VS Righties = .305/.421/.635 (400 ABs)
VS Lefties = .245/.358/.392 (102 ABs)
Maybe Berkman should try hitting lefty full-time?

David Eckstein
Pre All-Star = .271/.353/.376 (303 ABs)
Post All-Star = .341/.401/.445 (220 ABs)
Bases Loaded = .353/.300/1.059 (17 ABs)

Pat Burrell
VS Righties = .276/.351/.528 (409 ABs)
VS Lefties = .327/.478/.683 (104 ABs)
Home = .267/.338/.504 (240 ABs)
Away = .304/.413/.608 (273 ABs)

Adam Dunn
VS Righties = .259/.423/.444 (313 ABs)
VS Lefties = .267/.399/.560 (150 ABs)
Pre All-Star = .300/.452/.544 (283 ABs)
Post All-Star = .200/.356/.383 (180 ABs)
The future of my Diamond-Mind keeper team has gone in the tank since the All-Star break!

Jeff Kent
VS Righties = .306/.354/.541 (412 ABs)
VS Lefties = .394/.465/.740 (127 ABs)
Pre All-Star = .320/.373/.512 (334 ABs)
Post All-Star = .337/.396/.712 (205 ABs)
Batting #3 = .366/.417/.756 (205 ABs)
Batting #4 = .303/.361/.486 (333 ABs)
I wonder if pitchers give him better pitches to hit with Superman batting behind him? That .756 Slugging % batting 3rd says they do.

Troy Glaus
VS Righties = .220/.329/.396 (359 ABs)
VS Lefties = .314/.404/.521 (140 ABs)
Home = .227/.316/.389 (247 ABs)
Away = .266/.381/.472 (252 ABs)

Bret Boone
VS Righties = .262/.322/.415 (393 ABs)
VS Lefties = .293/.368/.549 (133 ABs)
Pre All-Star = .229/.301/.390 (328 ABs)
Post All-Star = .338/.390/.545 (198 ABs)
0-0 count = .377/.402/.740 (77 ABs)
Boone's 2nd half #s this year are almost identical to his full season #s for last year (.331/.372/.578).

Chipper Jones
Pre All-Star = .307/.396/.454 (313 ABs)
Post All-Star = .335/.495/.665 (164 ABs)

Shea Hillenbrand
Home = .272/.314/.377 (265 ABs)
Away = .345/.373/.581 (284 ABs)

Luis Castillo
Pre All-Star = .341/.399/.398 (337 ABs)
Post All-Star = .245/.292/.311 (196 ABs)

Todd Helton
Home = .390/.480/.675 (231 ABs)
Away = .277/.373/.482 (253 ABs)
0-0 count = .500/.563/.861 (72 ABs)
This is why Rockies' hitters should pray that they never get traded.

Mike Lowell
Pre All-Star = .311/.374/.527 (338 ABs)
Post All-Star = .174/.278/.281 (167 ABs)
April = .385/.434/.673 (104 ABs)
August = .145/.269/.193 (83 ABs)
WOW!

Cristian Guzman
Pre All-Star = .257/.273/.341 (346 ABs)
Post All-Star = .302/.322/.439 (205 ABs)
So damn frustrating, he makes me crazy!

Omar Vizquel
Pre All-Star = .285/.370/.466 (305 ABs)
Post All-Star = .260/.288/.350 (200 ABs)
Batting #1 = .293/.426/.485 (99 ABs)
Batting #2 = .272/.316/.405 (405 ABs)

Sammy Sosa
VS Righties = .284/.383/.602 (377 ABs)
VS Lefties = .368/.524/.726 (95 ABs)
Home = .278/.401/.580 (245 ABs)
Away = .326/.429/.678 (227 ABs)

Craig Biggio
VS Righties = .272/.344/.437 (419 ABs)
VS Lefties = .222/.340/.309 (81 ABs)
Biggio struggling badly against lefties for the 3rd year in a row.

Jacque Jones
VS Righties = .326/.365/.565 (393 ABs)
VS Lefties = .202/.248/.333 (129 ABs)
Home = .262/.299/.415 (248 ABs)
Away = .325/.371/.591 (274 ABs)
I have a complaint with Gardenhire (and believe me, I have very few) here, Jones desperately needs to be platooned (and maybe he should stay on the plane when they come home to Minnesota).

Eric Chavez
VS Righties = .306/.385/.587 (366 ABs)
VS Lefties = .221/.267/.400 (140 ABs)
Chavez has yet to hit lefties in his major league career.
An Eric Chavez/Olmedo Saenz straight platoon would be great, but it is tough to bench a star player.

Juan Pierre
Home = .315/.353/.374 (257 ABs)
Away = .223/.273/.250 (264 ABs)
If my leadoff hitter hit like that, he wouldn't.

Paul Konerko
Pre All-Star = .328/.379/.571 (326 ABs)
Post All-Star = .277/.347/.418 (177 ABs)
June = .340/.409/.742 (97 ABs)
July = .215/.295/.333 (93 ABs)

Juan Uribe
April = .373/.416/.510 (102 ABs)
May = .188/.264/.241 (112 ABs)
June = .194/.206/.296 (98 ABs)
July = .188/.244/.275 (80 ABs)
August = .202/.229/.298 (104 ABs)
I chose this guy over David Eckstein as my DMB SS of the future.
Think I may have made a mistake?
How can a guy hit .373 in the first month of the season and then fail to hit above .202 in the next 4 months?!

Adrian Beltre
Pre All-Star = .238/.289/.356 (320 ABs)
Post All-Star = .326/.357/.610 (187 ABs)
Might finally be approaching the star status that people have been expecting of him.

Jim Thome
VS Righties = .324/.477/.759 (278 ABs)
VS Lefties = .212/.329/.417 (132 ABs)
Another star that should be platooned.
One of my favorite players and my DMB team's 1st baseman.

Carl Everett
Pre All-Star = .193/.239/.331 (166 ABs)
Post All-Star = .329/.412/.544 (158 ABs)
Crazy Carl, in addition to not believing in Dinosaurs, has actually played well in the 2nd half.
He can't play centerfield anymore, so he better hit if he wants to be valuable.

And finally, I saved the best for last...

Barry Bonds
VS Righties = .374/.597/.783 (235 ABs)
VS Lefties = .352/.520/.889 (108 ABs)
Home = .353/.571/.767 (150 ABs)
Away = .378/.578/.855 (193 ABs)
Pre All-Star = .345/.562/.780 (232 ABs)
Post All-Star = .414/.601/.892 (111 ABs)
August = .447/.621/.961 (76 ABs)
0-0 count = .439/.677/1.053 (57 ABs)
Runners On = .333/.600/.770 (135 ABs)
Scoring Position = .309/.634/.824 (68 ABs)

I only listed a few of his many amazing splits.
It is very difficult to find a split that Bonds does not have an OPS of at least 1.000 in.
Day, Night, Home, Away, Grass, Turf, Dome, Open, Righty, Lefty, April, May, June, July, August, September, Pre All-Star, Post All-Star, Batting 3rd, Batting 4th, None On, Runners On, Scoring Position, 1B Only, 1st and 2nd Base, Scoring Position 2 Out, Close and Late...You name the split and Barry Bonds pretty much has an OPS of over 1.000.

If anyone knows of a really good split that I missed here, feel free to email me.

For a guy that hates math, I sure love statistics!