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Saturday, October 05, 2002
When The Dome is a rockin..."But, like I said, we'll see what happens tomorrow.The Twins showed that they could hit Hudson and, when healthy, Eric Milton is their best starting pitcher, especially against a team that struggles against lefties. Youneverknow." That's what I said after yesterday's loss. And guess what? The Twins beat up on Hudson (and Lilly) for the 2nd straight time. Eric Milton showed that he is definintely healthy and shut down the A's lineup (more on that in a minute). And there will be a game 5, tomorrow in Oakland. I have been babbling for a while now about Oakland's lack of success against left-handed pitching and I have been saying that I thought the Twins should have started Johan Santana, along with Eric Milton, in this series, to take advantage of Oakland's struggles versus lefties. Before today's game, with Milton on the mound for the Twins, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at what each Oakland hitter did this season against lefties. I have looked at their team performance against lefties, but never really checked it out batter by batter. What I found had me feeling pretty confident heading into the game. Oakland, as a team, hit .247/.319/.403 against lefties. All three of those numbers ranked in the bottom half of the AL this season. Those bad team numbers against lefties are actually sort of misleading. Jeremy Giambi hit .327/.462/.462 in 52 at bats against lefties while he was still in Oakland. Carlos Pena, in his brief stint as the future 1st baseman of the A's, hit .326/.385/.609 against left-handed pitching. Against lefties this year, Giambi and Pena were the two most successful A's. They totaled about 100 at bats and they are both no longer on the team. The third best Oakland hitter against lefties this year was Olmedo Saenz, who hit .317/.366/.571 against them in 63 at bats. Saenz tore his achilles tendon in game 1, so he won't be playing for the A's anytime soon. So the 3 most successful Oakland hitters against lefties will not be making any further appearances for the A's this season. And when you take out those 3 hitters (who combined for about 12% of the A's total at bats against lefties and certainly helped their "team" totals) you aren't left with very much as far as hitting lefties goes. Eric Chavez .209/.263/.362 Terrence Long .250/.295/.378 Jermaine Dye .212/.304/.293 Scott Hatteberg .233/.333/.395 Ray Durham .255/.327/.366 (combined #s with OAK and CHW) Ramon Hernandez .257/.325/.431 David Justice .257/.328/.362 Randy Velarde .162/.311/.297 John Mabry .217/.208/.391 Greg Myers .200/.259/.240 Eric Byrnes .279/.273/.395 Adam Piatt .233/.298/.442 Those are 12 out of the 15 hitters that the A's have on their playoff roster. None of them had an on-base % over .333 against lefties and ten of them slugged under .400 against lefties. So, Oakland's playoff roster includes those 12 guys, plus Saenz, who is out for the playoffs. Which leaves 2 guys on the entire team this hit lefties well. Miguel Tejada .285/.342/.518 Mark Ellis .296/.415/.481 You give me a good lefty starting pitcher against a team that includes only 2 guys that hit lefties well at all, and I like my chances. Of course, it also helps when you score 11 runs! What a 4th inning! That was one of the most enjoyable 15 minutes of baseball watching that I have ever experienced. Passed balls, wild pitches, throwing errors, I loved it. And the Twins finally got some hits with men in scoring position. 11-2 Twins and the series is heading back to Oakland. Like I said yesterday, youneverknow. As the late, great Jack Buck said during Kirby Puckett's game 6 winning homer in the 1991 World Series, "And we'll see you...TOMORROW NIGHT!" (or at least tomorrow afternoon) A few notes... There were 55,932 people in the Metrodome for game 3, which was a new Metrodome playoff record. Somehow they managed to fit 28 extra people in there for today's game, which had a crowd of 55,960. My question is a two-parter: 1) Where did these extra 28 people sit? and 2) Why couldn't they sit there yesterday too? I am so sick of all the announcers and writers talking about how much the Metrodome roof is affecting everything. I have watched almost every single Twins game for the past 5 years, either on TV or at the Metrodome, and I think all the talk about the roof causing so many mistakes is just dumb. They make it seem like every single ball that is hit into the air automatically becomes the toughest play of all-time. Meanwhile, during the course of 81 games during the regular season, hundreds and hundreds of balls are hit into the air at the Metrodome and somehow a few of them manage to find their way into someone's glove. Everytime a bloop hit lands in between two fielders we are told that it was because "they couldn't find it" or "it got lost in the roof." I say that's a load of crap. I wouldn't mind it if they occasionally mentioned that The Dome roof made it a little harder to track fly balls, but the announcers are constantly pointing out that it is such a tremendous struggle to catch even the most routine pop up in The Dome. And could they possible point out that is gets loud in the Dome a few thousand more times? While I am picking on the announcers, I need to point out that ESPN announcer Rick Sutcliffe makes me want to stick sharp objects into my own ears. He is just absolutely dreadful. And even worse than just being horrible, he won't shut up! One of the things that I hate most about many of the current baseball announcers is that they are so deathly afraid of a few seconds of silence during a game. I tune into a baseball game to watch the game, not to hear a constant, running monologue by Rick Sutcliffe. After a while, I think I just started tuning him out. I did manage to catch a few of his more brilliant thoughts: "The Twins get to play so many games on turf...the other team might only play 3 games all year on turf, and that makes a big difference." See, I think his point was not a completely idiotic one. I believe he is trying to say that the Twins are more equipped to play well on the turf because they play more games on it. I know I am asking for trouble by actually paying attention to the details of what he says, but c'mon, the other teams might play 3 games a year on turf? Hey Rick, have you ever heard of Toronto or Tampa Bay? Just so everyone knows, the A's played 12 games (or almost 8% of their entire schedule) on turf this year. And every single team in the American League played at least a dozen games on turf this year, with most playing more than 20. Okay, so that one was picking nits (which is fun to do anyway). This one really made me laugh (and cringe)... "The playoffs are a lot different than the regular season for the home team. They don't just get tickets for their family, they have to actually arrange to get the tickets and they have to actually buy them. And you could tell that had an effect on the Twins in yesterday's game." The good news for Twins fans was that the Twins were apparently able to bounce back from having to buy tickets for the second straight day and win the game. A little later in the game, Sutcliffe said this beauty: "When Barry Zito was a high school pitcher, Zito's dad SEEKED Rick Peterson (the A's pitching coach) out." So not only does he say idiotic things all game, he can't even say them correctly! Sutcliffe wasn't alone in the booth, he was 1/3 of the team that also included Tony Gwynn and Dave O'Brien. I really have liked Tony Gwynn as an announcer this year and I think O'Brien is a decent play-by-play guy too, but I couldn't even tell you what they said today because I was so busy trying to make sense of Sutcliffe's constant rambling, bumbling crap. I am telling you, he just will not shut his trap. He has a condition that my mother refers to as "diarrhea of the mouth and constipation of the brain." Not exactly the qualities you look for in a baseball announcer. Game 5 tomorrow in Oakland. Mark Mulder will be going on short rest (3 days) while Brad Radke will be on normal rest (4 days). It probably won't make a difference, but I am hoping it will. I am not real optimistic about the Twins' chances against Mulder, especially after what they did (or didn't do) against him in game 2. On the bright side, the A's will have the severe disadvantage of having to arrange for tickets for their family and friends. Right Mr. Sutcliffe? GO TWINS!!!!!!!!!!     
Friday, October 04, 2002
Fear The MonkeyThose pesky Angels somehow managed to overcome their starting pitcher giving up 6 runs in 2 2/3 innings to beat the Yankees 9-6.A few thoughts while wondering if the Rally Monkey could kick Mystique and Aura's ass in a fight... Francisco Rodriguez can throw it a little bit. I have to confess that I don't know a whole lot about him as a player, but I have been impressed with what I have seen of him in the post-season. He throws absolute gas and he added in some awesome breaking stuff tonight. A quick look at his minor league credentials makes him look even more promising... AAA Salt Lake: 42 IP 59 K 13 BB 30 H 1 HR Allowed 2.57 ERA AA Arkansas: 41 IP 61 K 15 BB 32 H 2 HR Allowed 1.96 ERA That's called consistency folks. Total that up, do a little bit of addition, division and multiplication and you come up with about 13 strikeouts per 9 innings, to go along with only 3 homers allowed in 83 IP and a decent walk rate as an added bonus. Anyone that puts up those kind of numbers in AA/AAA and was born in the same decade that I was (the 80s baby!) is a good bet to be something special. I would say Mr. Rodriguez has a very good chance of being a very good pitcher in the major leagues. And an even better chance of being on at least one of my Diamond-Mind keeper league teams next year (unless the person reading this is actually in one of my leagues - you know who you are! - in which case I think Rodriguez stinks and has no future). It was nice to see Tim Salmon come through with a big hit. Mostly because it helped cause the Yankees to lose, but also because Salmon has been a very good player for a long time, all with one team. He has also been a very consistent player, except for last season. Salmon got his first full-time MLB gig in 1993 when he played in 142 games, won Rookie-of-the-Year and hit .283/.382/.536. Not a lot of players play at the exact same level as they did in their rookie season for their entire career, but Tim Salmon has been pretty close. Including this season, Salmon has 10 full seasons in the big leagues. In those 10 seasons... He has had an on-base % of at least .370 in 9 of them. He has had a slugging % of at least .490 in 9 of them. The only exception? Last season. Salmon had a career low OBP of .365 (which is still good) and a career low in SLG of .383 (which is not so good). But Salmon bounced back big time this year, hitting .286/.380/.503 which is an almost identical stat line to that of his rookie season and right in line with the rest of his career. Remember on tests when a question would ask, "Which one of the following is least like the others?" The answer is D) Tim Salmon, 2001. Troy Percival. My god, has anyone ever looked more like a Major League Baseball Closer than he does? The squinting, the scrunched up face, the delivery and the 98 MPH fastball. Right out of Central Casting. Here is a stat to chew on... Troy Percival versus right handed batters in 2002: .138 batting average and 0 HRs in 109 at bats. GO ANGELS!!!! (Because if the Twins can't make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, at least maybe the Yankees won't either)
Oh wellDon't you hate it when you are all pumped up for a big ballgame and, almost before you can sit down to start watching it, the other team has two homers and a 2-0 lead?Well, I do. You just can't give up back-to-back home runs to start the ballgame and give up two more before the 7th inning and expect to beat a good team in a playoff game. The Twins fought hard though. They just couldn't get the big hit with men on base that they needed, although they had plenty of opportunties. Luis Rivas struck out with the bases loaded and two outs in the 2nd inning. David Ortiz grounded out with Cristian Guzman on 2nd base and 2 outs in the 3rd inning. Rivas hit into a double play with 2 men on and 1 out in the 4th inning. They had Barry Zito on the ropes early and often, but they just couldn't get the knockout (or at least knock down) punch that they desperately needed. We'll see if they can do well tomorrow against Tim Hudson, for the 2nd straight time. The Twins will have Eric Milton on the mound and because of his injury and his subsequent struggles since coming back, you never know what he'll be able to give you. Definitely a tough loss. I really thought they had it, right around the time Corey Koskie tripled to deep left center and Torii Hunter drove him in with a single up the middle. It was 3-3 at that point. Zito had already thrown about 100 pitches and it looked like it would be a brand new ballgame, a battle of the bullpens. Of course, Rick Reed started the 6th inning by giving up his fourth homer of the day, a Jermaine Dye bullet into the right field corner. Reed was yanked and Johan Santana was brought in, but he didn't have his best stuff and ended up giving up an additional 2 runs. That was it, one minute it was tied up and it seemed like the momentum had completely shifted. The next minute, it was 6-3 Oakland and the Twins were getting shut down by Ricky Rincon. The Dome was a rockin though, that was the good news. The announced attendance was just slightly under 56,000. And boy were they loud. Their loudness was in spite of the fact that they were probably a little shellshocked (as I was) when Oakland was up 2-0 after two batters. But, like I said, we'll see what happens tomorrow. The Twins showed that they could hit Hudson and, when healthy, Eric Milton is their best starting pitcher, especially against a team that struggles against lefties. Youneverknow.
Mr. BrenlyI'm real busy today, so I don't have much time to write a big, long entry about yesterday's games.But, my feelings on the STL/AZ game can be summed up pretty quickly. The Diamondbacks lost a 2-1 ballgame in which they did not even use their best relief pitcher (Byung-Hyun Kim) or their best hitter (Erubiel Durazo). It is looking like the Cardinals will be taking the series, which would make my prediction wrong. I predicted the D-Backs in 5. But, I guess I didn't account for Randy Johnson getting knocked around in game 1 and I did not give Bob Brenly enough credit for what he can do to help the opposing team. Scott Rolen's injury might be serious, which would be a real shame. Injuries suck, especially in the playoffs. Sometimes I wish teams could just set the injuries to "OFF" like you can in video games. Oh, I almost forgot... GO TWINS!!!!!
Thursday, October 03, 2002
Mystique and Aura 1, Rally Monkey 1Now, that was a baseball game!Last night's Yankees/Angels game was a great one, exactly what post-season baseball is all about. We got dramatic home runs, "interesting" managerial decisions and a closer closing out the game (not before he made it interesting, of course). The big story of the game (aside from the Angels winning) seems to be Mike Scioscia's decision to bring Brendan Donnelly into the game in the 8th inning. With 1 out and a man on 1st and 2nd, John Vander Wal (a left handed batter) pinch hit for Juan Rivera. Scioscia took Ben Weber out of the game (Weber injured himself) and instead of bringing in his closer, Troy Percival, to get the final 5 outs of the game, he decided to bring in Brendan Donnelly. Now, even those of you with memories only slightly better than the guy from Memento should be able to recall that Donnelly is the same guy that gave up the 3-run homer to Bernie Williams the night before. While I thought Scioscia's decision to bring Donnelly, instead of Percival, into a tie game was a mistake in game 1, I did not have much of a problem with his decision last night. Scioscia obviously feels as though he would rather have Donnelly facing a left handed hitter than Percival. Here are Donnelly's splits: versus righties = .148/.236/.167 versus lefties = .242/.316/.379 If you are going to bring Donnelly into a game to face a certain handed hitter, it should be probably be a righty, not lefty. However, even though Donnelly didn't dominate lefties as much as he did righties this season, he was still a lot better against them than Percival was. Here are Percival's stats against lefties this year: .247/.366/.441 with 5 homers in 93 at bats. Basically, Troy Percival had a tough time with lefties this year. I am positive that Scioscia is well aware of the same stats I just showed to you and because of that he wanted to keep Percival away from Vander Wal (especially with 2 men on base). I actually think Scioscia made a good decision last night. The Angels reliever that had the most success against left handed batter this season was Scott Schoeneweis (.202/.268/.341). However, if Scioscia would have gone to Schoeneweis (a lefty) against Vander Wal, Joe Torre would likely have sent Shane Spencer (a righty) to the plate, thus wiping away the Angels' edge. So, instead of brining in the left-handed Schoeneweis to likely face Spencer, Scioscia went with the right-handed Donnelly, who also does well against lefties and who is right-handed. Scioscia knew that Torre would stick with Vander Wal against Donnelly. In any event, it was a very gutsy move on Scioscia's part, especially considering what Donnelly did the game before. One final note on the Yankees/Angels... Derek Jeter is just not a good fielding shortstop. He has almost no range on balls hit up the middle. In my series preview I said, "We should be seeing a lot of bouncing ground balls that get by the outstretched gloves of Derek Jeter and Alfonso Soriano." There have been at least 7-8 balls that have avoided Soriano's and particularly Jeter's gloves in this series. When a ball goes up the middle, Jeter "dives" like someone just shot him in the stomach and inevitably, the ball rolls past his glove and into the outfield. He has a great arm and decent range to his glove side, which is what keeps him from becoming a complete disaster out there. No matter what you think about his defense, the man can hit though. Although, with 2 strikes he might wanna think about hacking if the pitch is close (just joking Yankee fans, I think the 3rd strike call was a bad one). In sadder news... The Twins got their butts kicked yesterday afternoon. Joe Mays started and was bad from the start, allowing a 3-run homer to Eric Chavez in the 1st inning. Between the pitch before Chavez's homer and Chavez's homer, Joe Morgan and Jon Miller had this actual exchange: Jon Miller: "What do you think Joe, right handed hitter on deck and 1st base open..." Joe Morgan: "Nope, I think it is early in the game and Joe Mays should be looking to go right after Chavez." Mays delivers the pitch... Jon Miller: "Chavez hits a three run homer..." Mays didn't make it out of the 4th inning and was replaced by Tony Fiore, who promptly gave up a walk, a 3-run triple and a 1-run double. Not a pretty game for the Twins, who once again struggled big time against a quality left handed starter. Gardenhire did the smart thing (and 50% of what I suggested he do) replacing David Ortiz with Matthew LeCroy as the DH against Mulder, but he left Jacque Jones in there, which I think is a very bad move (and the other 50% of my suggestion). I know Jones had a big hit off of a lefty in game 1, but one hit does not wipe away an entire career of not being able to hit lefties. They are facing another tough task in game three starter Barry Zito (another lefty). Hopefully the Metrodome will provide the Twins with a little "Mystique and Aura" of their own and they will find a way to score some runs off of Zito. I still think my "Oakland in four" prediction will probably be correct. In the 3rd game of the day, the Giants made me look good by beating Atlanta 8-5. Barry Bonds (who know has a nifty little "Playoff Tracker" on the left hand side of this page) was robbed of a sure home run by Andruw Jones (think Torii Hunter in the All-Star game, but not quite as impressive). On the day he went 1-4 with a single, a walk and a run scored. So Bonds wasn't the hero, but the guy batting directly behind him was. Yep, that's right, Benito Santiago went 3-5 with a double and 2 RBIs. Russ Ortiz also pitched well. So far my prediction that "great offense will beat great pitching" is looking okay, but it is still very early. Enjoy the games today...
Wednesday, October 02, 2002
Not a bad first dayYours truly is getting some nice things said about the Playoff Preview and Predictions article that I posted on this site on Monday.Since I am never one to pass up a compliment and always one to tell other people about them... John Perricone from "Only Baseball Matters" actually posted my entire article on his site as a "guest column." I suspect that most of the people that read this site regularly also read his site regularly, but nonetheless, it was a very nice gesture. He called it a "truly spectacular playoff preview" on Monday. And then today, after the first day of games, he pointed out to everyone that I did pretty well previewing the Yankees/Angels series (at least as far as game one goes). Here is what John wrote: ".... Nostrodamus? Looking back at Aaron Gleeman's playoff previews, I found that he absolutely nailed the Yankees/Angels series. He said, among many things: ...will the Yankees struggle to score runs when the walks aren't as plentiful and they aren't getting as many opportunities to hit a 3-run home run? Last night, they were able to get that three-run home run. I think the Yankees will be able to score runs off of Anaheim's pitching staff, particularly off of Appier, Ortiz and the middle relief. 4 runs off of Weber and Donnelly. The Angels simply do not strikeout. No kidding. I mean, come on, Ekstein fouled off a pitch out. We should be seeing a lot of bouncing ground balls that get by the outstretched gloves of Derek Jeter and Alfonso Soriano. I counted three, at least. Can the Angels stop the Yankees from scoring? I think the answer to that, outside of Jarrod Washburn and Troy Percival, will be no. The answer was no, at least for one night. I see a lot of 6-4 and 7-5 games, with the Yankee middle relief (Mendoza, Weaver, Stanton, Karsay, El Duque) doing a better job than the Angels' (Weber, Donnelly, Levine, Schoeneweis, Shields). Final score, 8-5. See, I told you it was a spectacular preview. Great job, Aaron." Also, fellow Twins nut, John Bonnes over at Twinsgeek.com, called my article "an uber-comprehensive overview of all the playoff series." Thanks guys. And to all my readers that don't regularly check out those two sites (if there are any of you) I suggest you do so, they are both awesome. Okay, enough with other people complimenting me! (I would keep going, but I ran out of compliments to tell you about) And on to the baseball... That was one hell of a first day of the playoffs! First and foremost (well, second behind all the compliments I got, I guess) the Twins somehow managed to beat Oakland, in Oakland, despite trying their absolute hardest to give the game away in the first couple of innings. Except for the errors (Brad Radke needs to get the f@%! out of the way on pop ups, he just stands there!) the Twins won by doing almost the exact same things I said they would need to do to get a win (oops, now I am giving compliments to myself!). This is what I said in the preview: "The Twins are going to have to take advantage of the one area of strength that they have over Oakland, their bullpen. The A's have great starting pitching, but if the Twins can work some long at bats and get those pitch counts up, they can get into the Oakland pen and do some damage. It is a lot easier said than done obviously, as Zito, Hudson and Mulder are all complete game shutouts waiting to happen at anytime and in any game." "The Twins need to get decent pitching performances from their right handed starting pitchers, get them out of the game before they can allow any damage and then turn the game over to the three great lefties in their bullpen, Johan Santana, J.C. Romero and Eddie Guardado." Of course, I need to point out that I didn't actually think they would do those things (especially after the first two innings), but I am more than happy to have been wrong! The Twins hit Tim Hudson pretty well and then Art Howe did them a small favor and lifted Hudson in the 6th inning. And then, amazingly, the Twins lefties actually got hits off of a lefty pitcher (Ted Lilly). Radke did the best he could have done to minimize the damage and then the Twins decided to "turn the game over to the three great lefties in their bullpen, Johan Santana, J.C. Romero and Eddie Guardado." All in all, a hell of a win. If they are planning on winning all of their games like this, I might not make it much longer! Today's game will be the real test, facing A's lefty Mark Mulder. I feel good knowing a) the series is going at least 4 games (meaning at least two in The Dome) and b) the Twins know they can get to Hudson now. I already showed (or let other people show) how brilliant my preview of the Yankees/Angels series was, so I won't re-quote myself. I definitely thought Mike Scioscia made a mistake not bringing in Troy Percival to face Bernie Williams. Hindsight is obviously 20/20, but I just assumed that when he made a move to the bullpen to replace Schoeneweis, that he was going with Percival. I agreed with all of his pitching moves up to the Williams at bat. I really think it is sad that a statistic (saves) could have an impact on the way a manager manages a game. If the Angels would have been up 1 run instead of the game being tied, I have no doubt in my mind that Percival would have been brought in. You bring your best relief pitcher into the game in the most important spot you possibly can. But because it was not a "save situation" (it was a "win or loss situation" instead) the Angels' best reliever stayed in the pen and...well, you know the rest. I found myself rooting pretty heavily for the Angels as the game wore on. I don't really see how someone could not root for David Eckstein. Just as I don't see how someone not from or living in the New York area could possibly root for the Yankees. I am sick of Derek Jeter being called "The New Mr. October." The man is a very good baseball player and he plays well in the post-season, but the praise that is being heaped upon him for his "excellence in the clutch" is getting ridiculous. "The New Mr. October" hit a robust .148 in last year's World Series and .118 in last year's AL Championship Series. Like I said, he has been very good over the course of his career in the post-season, hitting .304/.372/.448 before yesterday. But guess what? Those numbers are good, but they are actually worse than his career regular season numbers! Wouldn't "The New Mr. October" have to actually play better in October than he does in every other month? Can you imagine if Barry Bonds hit .148 in the World Series and .118 in the League Championship Series? I have a feeling "The New Mr. October" wouldn't be among the things people would be calling him. Jeter is a good player who tends to be highly overrated. I undertand it though, he plays shortstop for the most successful franchise in baseball history, he apparently is good looking and he has made some very good plays on a national stage. By the way, "Mystique and Aura" did not "make an appearance" last night, Mike Scioscia did. Okay, rant over. Enjoy the baseball today folks. I watched about 10 hours of it yesterday and I am planning on doing the exact same thing today. Yes, it's true, I have no life. But I sure do love baseball.
Monday, September 30, 2002
And now the moment you've all been waiting for...Aaron Gleeman's 2002 Playoff Previews and Predictions:Arizona Diamondbacks (98-64) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) Pitching matchups: Game 1: Randy Johnson (24-5, 2.32 ERA, .743 SNPct) vs. Matt Morris (17-9, 3.42 ERA, .587 SNPct) Game 2: Curt Schilling (23-7, 3.23 ERA, .682 SNPct) vs. Chuck Finley (11-15, 4.15 ERA, .540 SNPct) Game 3: Rick Helling (10-12, 4.51 ERA, .514 SNPct) / Miguel Batista (8-9, 4.29 ERA, .481 SNPct) vs. Woody Williams (9-4, 2.53 ERA, .701 SNPct) Game 4: Johnson vs. Morris Game 5: Schilling vs. Finley Team stats (NL ranking): Runs scored: Arizona 819 (1) / St. Louis 787 (2) Runs allowed: Arizona 674 (5) / St. Louis 648 (4) Defensive efficiency: Arizona .7115 (7) / St. Louis .7208 (3) Team EqA: Arizona .265 (4) / St. Louis .267 (3) Relievers adjusted runs prevented: Arizona 4.2 (10) / St. Louis 57.9 (2) My thoughts: This is a rematch of last year's ALDS, which Arizona won 3-2. In last year's series, no team scored more than 5 runs in any of the five games and they were all decided by 3 runs or less. I expect a very similar series this year, although there are a few differences this time around. Last year, Arizona's rotation was Schilling, Johnson, Batista, Albie Lopez and Schilling again. St. Louis started Morris, Williams, Darryl Kile, Bud Smith and Morris a second time. Schilling beat Morris 1-0 and 2-1 in their two matchups. The Cards did manage to beat Randy Johnson in his only start. And St. Louis went 1-1 against the non-Schilling/Johnson starters. However, this time around, instead of two starts being made by people other than The Big Two, there will only be one. So the Cardinals are looking at 4 games against Johnson and Schilling, which means they almost have to win game 3 in order to have any shot at winning this series. As of right now, I haven't heard whether Batista or Helling will be the D-Backs game 3 starter, but in either case, the Cardinals absolutely need to win that game. On the Cardinals side, they are without Darryl Kile, who very likely would have pitched games 2 and 5. Let's just assume St. Louis wins game 3. Do they have any shot at going 2-2 against Johnson and Schilling? I really doubt it. On the offensive side of the ball (can you say that for baseball, or is that cliche only reserved for football?), Arizona is without their best hitter, left fielder Luis Gonzalez, who injured his shoulder last week and is out for the entire post-season. In addition to Gonzalez, they are also without last year's playoff hero, Craig Counsell. Any time you lose a hitter as good as Gonzalez it is going to hurt a team, but the D-Backs do have some decent options to fill in for him. Against St. Louis' right handed starters (Morris and Williams) they can shift Erubiel Durazo from 1st base to outfield and insert Mark Grace at 1st base, where he started last year. If Brenly doesn't want to have Durazo roaming the outfield, he can leave him at 1st base, put Grace on the bench and put David Dellucci in the outfield. And against Chuck Finley, they can sub Greg Colbrunn in for either Durazo or Grace. Durazo would be the much better choice to sit against Finley, as he struggled big time against lefties this year (.167/.274/.296), while Grace actually hit them very well (.325/.379/.500). However, I am not sure how comfortable Brenly would be using Colbrunn in the outfield, so we may see Colbrunn at 1st base against lefties, with someone like Felix Jose or possibly Danny Bautista (who may or may not be healthy in time to play in the 1st round) in the outfield. If I were Brenly, I would take the chance defensively with Colbrunn in the outfield and Mark Grace at 1st base against lefties. All that being said, I would expect the Arizona lineup to look something like this: SS - Tony Womack 2B - Junior Spivey 1B - Mark Grace / Greg Colbrunn RF - Erubiel Durazo / Greg Colbrunn / Felix Jose 3B - Matt Williams CF - Steve Finley LF - Quinton McCracken C - Damian Miller That's not a bad lineup top to bottom, which is why (along with a home ballpark that favors hitting) they ranked 1st in the NL in scoring runs. Adjusting the hitting performance to take into account the ballpark they played in, the D-Backs drop to 4th in the NL in EqA, which is still pretty good. They would be better off with McCracken leading off and Womack batting 8th, but I doubt Bob Brenly would ever do that. He might hit Spivey a little more in the middle of the lineup and shift McCracken to the 2nd spot though. The Diamondbacks, even without Luis Gonzalez, have some guys who do a good job getting on-base and they have enough power, with Durazo, Finley and Colbrunn (when he plays) to score some runs, and they won't need to score that many to win with Johnson and Schilling starting 80% of the games. The D-Backs ranked 1st in the NL in scoring runs but, as good as they are offensively, the Cardinals might be little bit better, especially considering Luis Gonzalez's injury. The Cardinals ranked 2nd in the NL in runs scored. But, Busch Stadium is a slight pitcher's park, while Bank One is a big hitter's park, so the Cardinals actually have a better team offensively when accounting for ballparks. They had the 3rd highest team EqA in the NL, while Arizona was 4th. I would expect the Cardinals lineup to look something like this (although, with Tony LaRussa, you can never assume anything lineup wise): 2B - Fernando Vina SS - Edgar Renteria CF - Jim Edmonds LF - Albert Pujols 3B - Scott Rolen 1B - Tino Martinez RF - J.D. Drew / Eli Marrero C - Eli Marrero / Mike Matheny But with LaRussa, like I said, who knows. You might see a lot of Miguel Cairo or something equally as mind boggling. These are two very good offensive teams, but I think Johnson and Schilling 4 times in 5 games will just be too much for the Cardinals hitters to deal with and the Diamondbacks offense should be able to score runs off of Finley and Williams. Prediction: Diamondbacks in 5. Atlanta Braves (101-59) vs. San Francisco Giants (95-66) Pitching matchups: Game 1: Tom Glavine (18-11, 2.96 ERA, .634 SNPct) vs. Russ Ortiz (14-10, 3.61 ERA, .550 SNPct) Game 2: Greg Maddux (16-6, 2.62 ERA, .683 SNPct) vs. Kirk Rueter (14-8, 3.23 ERA, .547 SNPct) Game 3: Kevin Millwood (18-8, 3.24 ERA, .612 SNPct) vs. Jason Schmidt (13-8, 3.45 ERA, .524 SNPct) Game 4: Damian Moss (12-6, 3.42 ERA, .587 SNPct) vs. Livan Hernandez (12-16, 4.38 ERA, .450 SNPct) Game 5: Glavine vs. Ortiz Team stats (NL ranking): Runs scored: Atlanta 708 (10) / San Francisco 783 (3) Runs allowed: Atlanta 565 (1) / San Francisco 616 (2) Defensive efficiency: Atlanta .7300 (2) / San Francisco .7194 (4) Team EqA: Atlanta .260 (9) / San Francisco .283 (1) Relievers adjusted runs prevented: Atlanta 91.5 (1) / San Francisco 48.2 (3) My thoughts: Somewhere along the line, Barry Bonds became my favorite baseball player. Since I was introduced to the world of Sabermetrics and I started learning that batting averages and RBIs weren't where it was at as far as looking at hitters, I became a big believer in walks, homers and on-base percentage. I suppose that, like anyone else who is a believer in walks, homers and on-base percentage, I think Barry Bonds is about as close to God as one can get in a baseball uniform. He now holds the major league record for walks in a season, home runs in a season and on-base % in a season. He might be jerk and he might not give the greatest quotes to the media, but Barry Bonds is the greatest baseball player I have ever seen play. And as the walks keep piling up and the home runs keep splashing into McCovey Cove, I become more and more of a fan of Superman (aka Barry Bonds). So I'm glad he is back in the post-season, after having possibly the greatest regular season in baseball history. Because Barry Bonds deserves a chance to do better than he has in past post-seasons. I would like nothing better than to see Barry Bonds put up a .500/.750/1.250 playoff series on someone and watch as that "not a clutch player" label comes flying off of him. If Bonds is going to have that .500/.750/1.250 series in the opening round, he is going to have to earn it. Because the Braves, as always, will be riding their starting pitching as far as it will take them. In the past, the Atlanta bullpen has been a problem, but this season the Braves' pen was the best in all of baseball, by a pretty huge margin. They can come at you with righties (Darren Holmes) and lefties (Mike Remlinger), rookies (Tim Spooneybarger) and and guys who have already retired (Chris Hammond), former Cy Young winners (John Smoltz) and former Independent Leaguers (Kerry Ligtenberg). And all of them can get the job done. The question will be, can the Atlanta offense score enough runs? Over the years, Bobby Cox has had a tendency to give too many at bats to guys who just can't hit. Along with their sometimes weak bullpens, their "automatic outs" in their lineup have hurt the Braves more than anything else in past post-seasons. And this year is no different. The Braves gave almost 300 at bats to Keith Lockhart this season, despite the fact that Keith Lockhart has shown a real tendency to not be able to hit a baseball and despite the fact they have had much better options readily available to them at second base (namely Marcus Giles and/or Mark DeRosa). They also wasted 221 at bats on Henry ".204/.267/.335" Blanco and another 210 on Wes "At least I look like a good hitter" Helms. Along with Lockhart, Helms and Blanco, the Braves are also using Vinny Castilla to dispose of a lot of their allotted 27 outs each game. Castilla has been, without a doubt, the least valuable regular in all of major league baseball this season. There are others who hit worse than Castilla (not very many, but some) but none of them play a position like third base, which is usually occupied by people who hit a lot higher than .232/.268/.348. But it is way too late to be making trades or waiver wire pickups, so the Braves are stuck with what they have. And if the past is any indication, Bobby Cox is not going to be sticking Lockhart and Castilla on the bench. Unless Gary Sheffield or one of the Jones Boys gets extremely hot during this series (which is a distinct possibility) the Braves are going to struggle to score runs. The Giants on the other hand, even against pitching as good as the Braves will throw at them, should be able to get some runs on the board. At first glance, the Giants offense looks pretty good, they are 4th in the NL in batting average, 1st in on-base % and 2nd in slugging %. When you delve a little deeper, you find that their offense is even better than it appears. The Giants play their 81 home games in the most extreme pitcher's park in all of baseball, Pac Bell Park. We all know that a .350 batting average or 50 home runs doesn't mean as much in Coors Field as it does anywhere else, so why shouldn't the opposite be true for great pitcher's parks? Need some proof? Check out the Giants' hitting splits for this season, and keep in mind that teams usually do a little bit better at home than on the road: home = .258/.338/.409 away = .273/.350/.471 So away from Pac Bell, Superman and Friends see their batting averages go up 15 points, their on-base percentages jump 22 points and their slugging percentages skyrocket up an amazing 62 points! The reason for the massive dropoff in home slugging % is mostly due to the fact that Pac Bell is an extremely tough place to hit home runs, which makes what Bonds did last season all the more impressive. When ballpark is taken into account, the Giants actually have the best hitting team in all of baseball, sitting head and shoulders above the rest of baseball with a .283 EqA. Dusty Baker also has a tendency to play some pretty horrible hitters, giving hundreds of at bats to guys like Tom Goodwin, J.T. Snow and Tsuyoshi Shinjo. The difference between Dusty's scrubs and Bobby's scrubs is that Dusty's scrubs are made to look a lot worse than they are by their home ballpark, whereas Bobby's scrubs are about as bad as they look. Goodwin, Snow and Shinjo had .252, .263 and .244 EqAs, while Lockhart, Castilla and Blanco checked in at .216, .216 and .201 respectively. In addition to the great offense, the Giants also have a pretty good bullpen of their own, ranking 3rd in the NL. The Giants weakest area is their starting pitching, which ranked 7th in the NL this year. At first glance they appear to be very good, with a 3.85 ERA this year. But, as with the offensive stats, the pitcher's performances must be taken in the context of the ballpark they pitched in, which makes them only slightly better than average. That said, the Giants starting pitching was better in the 2nd half than it was in the first half, and at its best down the stretch in September. So... Can the Braves, with their great pitching and mediocre offense beat the Giants, with their mediocre pitching and great offense? Almost every baseball cliche will tell you that great pitching beats great hitting. But guess what? My journalism teacher told me that if you have heard a cliche before, you should never use it. So I, who worship at the feet of the great Barry Bonds, will say that great hitting (especially when it includes someone with a .580 OBP and a .800 SLG in a severe pitcher's park) will beat great pitching, at least in this series. GO BARRY, GO! Prediction: Giants in 5. New York Yankees (103-58) vs. Anaheim Angels (99-63) Pitching matchups: Game 1: Roger Clemens (13-6, 4.35 ERA, .523 SNPct) vs. Jarrod Washburn (18-6, 3.15 ERA, .658 SNPct) Game 2: Andy Pettitte (13-5, 3.27 ERA, .601 SNPct) vs. Kevin Appier (14-12, 3.92 ERA, .558 SNPct) Game 3: Mike Mussina (18-10, 4.05 ERA, .536 SNPct) vs. Ramon Ortiz (15-9, 3.77 ERA, .584 SNPct) Game 4: David Wells (19-7, 3.75 ERA, .526 SNPct) vs. John Lackey (9-4, 3.66 ERA, .520 SNPct) / Washburn Game 5: Clemens vs. Washburn/Appier Team stats (AL ranking): Runs scored: New York 897 (1) / Anaheim 851 (4) Runs allowed: New York 697 (4) / Anaheim 644 (1) Defensive efficiency: New York .7079 (8) / Anaheim .7314 (1) Team EqA: New York .278 (1) / Anaheim .265 (5) Relievers adjusted runs prevented: New York 31.6 (4) / Anaheim 68.0 (1) My thoughts: The Evil Empire vs. The Rally Monkey. Walks and Homers vs. Batting Average and Doubles. $120 Million vs. $60 Million. East Coast vs. West Coast. Steinbrenner vs. Disney. Suzyn Waldman vs. Rex Hudler. 41 Playoff Appearances, 38 Pennants and 26 World Championships vs. 3 Playoff Appearances, 0 Pennants and 0 World Championships. This series should be real interesting. The Angels lead the American League in batting average and hits and were 3rd in doubles and stolen bases. On the other hand, Anaheim was only 11th in walks and 10th in homers. The Yankees lead the AL in on-base %, slugging %, walks and runs and were 2nd in homers. These are two very good offensive teams that rely on completely different offensive skills. The Angels are a bunch of doubles hitting hackers. The Yankees are a bunch of home run hitting walkers. New York has 4 hitters with more than 80 walks and 6 hitters with at least 45. Anaheim has 1 hitter with more than 80 walks and 4 hitters with at least 45. And if you read the Giants/Braves part of this entry, you know how much I like walks, homers and on-base %. I know which type of offense I would rather have in the regular season (the homer/walking kind) but I am not 100% sure which one I would rather have in the playoffs. Will the Angels struggle to score runs when the hits start drying up and they don't get anyone on base via the walk? Or will the Yankees struggle to score runs when the walks aren't as plentiful and they aren't getting as many opportunities to hit a 3-run homer. I think the Yankees will be able to score runs off of Anaheim's pitching staff, particularly off of Appier, Ortiz and the middle relief. However, the Yankees pitching and defense is their main weakness and I think the Angels are the perfect team to exploit it. You see, statistically, the Yankees have the worst defense among the eight playoff teams. Basically, they convert less balls in play into outs than the other teams. They can generally "get away" with it because their pitchers strike so many guys out. The Yankees were 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, which means they don't allow as many balls in play for their defense to deal with as most teams. But if there is one thing the Angels hitters can take advantage of, it is a team that struggles when the ball is put in play. The Angels simply do not strikeout. They whiffed only 805 times this entire season, which was far and away the lowest total in all of baseball. In fact, they were the only team with less than 920 strikeouts. So, the Yankees rely on their pitching staff's ability to limit the amount of balls put into play, thus limiting the effect their sub par defense has. But one thing the Angels do is put the ball in play. It is really an interesting contrast. A team that racks up big strikeout totals and a team that doesn't strikeout. A team that has trouble converting balls in play into outs and a team that hits the most balls in play in all of baseball. We should be seeing a lot of bouncing ground balls that get by the outstretched gloves of Derek Jeter and Alfonso Soriano. We should be seeing a lot of balls flying past Bernie Williams and bouncing into the gaps. I think the Angels will be able to score runs off of the Yankees. However, whenever you have a team that relies almost entirely upon batting average, as Anaheim does, there is always the danger of a slump. Batting averages tend to go into a lot more slumps than walks do. In that regard, the Yankees offense is a lot easier to count on in the post-season. But I think the Angels offense will be okay, especially considering the performances and injuries that some of the Yankee pitchers are having this year. The Yankee pitching is vulnerable and Anaheim is in a perfect position to take advantage, and I think they will. So the question becomes, can the Angels stop the Yankees from scoring? I think the answer to that, outside of Jarrod Washburn and Troy Percival, will be no. The Yankees offense is simply too good and too deep. They hit for power, they hit for average, they get on base, and they do it up and down the lineup. Plus, they have a deep bench that includes good pinch hitters like John VanderWal (against righties) and Shane Spencer (against lefties). As much as I would like to see the Yankees go down in round 1, I just don't think it is going to happen. I see a lot of 6-4 and 7-5 games, with the Yankee middle relief (Mendoza, Weaver, Stanton, Karsay, El Duque) doing a better job than the Angels' (Weber, Donnelly, Levine, Schoeneweis, Shields). Prediction: Yankees in 5. Oakland Athletics (103-59) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-67) Pitching matchups: Game 1: Tim Hudson (15-9, 2.98 ERA, .645 SNPct) vs. Brad Radke (9-5, 4.72 ERA, .489 SNPct) Game 2: Mark Mulder (19-7, 3.47 ERA, .618 SNPct) vs. Joe Mays (4-8, 5.38 ERA, .461 SNPct) Game 3: Barry Zito (23-5, 2.75 ERA, .683 SNPct) vs. Rick Reed (15-7, 3.78 ERA, .551 SNPct) Game 4: Hudson vs. Eric Milton (13-9, 4.84 ERA, .499 SNPct) Game 5: Mulder vs. Radke Team stats (AL ranking): Runs scored: Oakland 800 (8) / Minnesota 768 (9) Runs allowed: Oakland 654 (2) / Minnesota 712 (6) Defensive efficiency: Oakland .7193 (3) / Minnesota .7143 (6) Team EqA: Oakland .266 (4) / Minnesota .258 (8) Relievers adjusted runs prevented: Oakland 12.6 (7) / Minnesota 51.8 (2) My thoughts: I could probably write about this series forever. The Twins are my hometown team and the A's are my favorite non-Minnesota team in all of sports. But, this entry is already extremely long and I have already written in great depth about this series, so I will try to keep it reasonably short now. If you are interested in reading some of my longer, more in-depth thoughts on the A's/Twins series, check out some of my previous entries: September 23rd: My reaction to the Twins announcing their post-season pitching rotation. September 10th: My analysis of the Twins' pitching for the post-season / What I thought their pitching rotation should have been. September 9th: My analysis of the Twins' hitting for the post-season / What I thought their batting lineups should have been. August 23rd: During the A's billion game winning streak, I decide I want absolutely no part of the A's in the post-season. If you aren't interested in reading those prior entries (and why the heck aren't you?!), I will try to sum up my thoughts as quickly as possible right now... I think the A's are the worst possible opponent for the Twins to be playing in round 1 of the playoffs. There are a lot of reasons for this, but two main ones. 1) The Twins do well against right handed pitching and struggle tremendously against left handed pitching AND the A's just happen to be starting two of the best left handers in all of baseball, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder, 3 times during the 5 game series. Here are exact numbers on the Twins hitting this year: versus righties = .282/.339/.449 (ranking them 1st in batting average, 4th in slugging % and 7th in on-base % among AL teams against righties) versus lefties = .252/.318/.411 (ranking them 8th in batting average, 8th in slugging % and 9th in on-base % among AL teams against lefties) 2) The A's, much like the Twins, do way better against right handed pitching AND the Twins will be starting right handed pitchers in games 1-3 and game 5. Here are the same stats on the A's hitting: versus righties = .266/.345/.441 (9th in batting average, 7th in slugging % and 3rd in on-base %) versus lefties = .247/.320/.404 (10th in batting average, 9th in slugging %, and 8th in on-base %) So basically, the A's are taking advantage of the Twins biggest weakness, while the Twins are playing into the A's biggest strength. You put that together with the A's having homefield advantage and the Twins being only 40-40 on the road this year and you get a series that I don't think the Twins have much chance of winning. If the Twins have any chance of winning, a couple of things are going to need to happen. 1) Ron Gardenhire is going to have to be willing to sit Jacque Jones and David Ortiz, in favor of Bobby Kielty and Matthew LeCroy. But the way Gardy has been making his lineups out lately, it looks like Jones is going to be starting in left field and leading off versus lefties. And that's bad news for Twins fans because Jacque hit .213/.259/.331 against southpaws this year and .182/.224/.200 off them last season. I also heard Gardy say that he likes the idea of having Bobby Kielty around as a late inning pinch hitter. Bobby Kielty is a very good hitter (and one of my favorite players), so he would obviously be a nice guy to have available to pinch hit in a playoff game. Heck, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez would also both be nice guys to have as pinch hitters. You can't assume that you are going to be in a close game, let alone a close game with a situation for a pinch hitter in a key spot. So, why would you leave Kielty on the bench in order to use him in a situation that may not even occur, instead of using him to replace someone who hits horribly against left handed pitchers. In the playoffs, and especially in games against the caliber of starting pitching that Oakland has, you need to maximize your chances of scoring runs, which means getting your best hitters the most possible plate appearances you can get them. Which means getting Bobby Kielty and his .374 on-base % versus lefties into the lineup for 4 at bats, instead of maybe 1 at bat as a pinch hitter. 2) The Twins are going to have to take advantage of the one area of strength that they have over Oakland, their bullpen. The A's have great starting pitching, but if the Twins can work some long at bats and get those pitch counts up, they can get into the Oakland pen and do some damage. It is a lot easier said than done obviously, as Zito, Hudson and Mulder are all complete game shutouts waiting to happen at anytime and in any game. But the Oakland relief corps are vulnerable, starting with the closer, Billy Koch (6 blown saves), and working all the down through Jim Mecir (4.26 ERA) and Chad Bradford (4.86 post all-star break ERA). The Twins need to get decent pitching performances from their right handed starting pitchers, get them out of the game before they can allow any damage and then turn the game over to the three great lefties in their bullpen, Johan Santana, J.C. Romero and Eddie Guardado. And on offense, they need to find a way to get the Oakland starters out of the game earlier than the 8th or 9th inning and then take advantage of the A's (primarily right handed) middle-relief. The Minnesota Twins fan and "Homer" in me says that they can do all (or at least some) of that stuff I just mentioned. But the baseball fan and realist in me says they most likely won't be able to do any of it on a consistent enough basis to do any good. Boy do I hope I'm wrong! GO TWINS! Prediction: A's in 4. There you have it, my complete previews and predictions for all four Division Series. As always, if more than 1 of my 4 predictions turn out to be wrong, I deny having ever written any of this. If this entry somehow vanishes into cyberspace, never to be seen again, I had nothing to do with it. Sit back, relax and enjoy the baseball. Oh yeah, before I forget, GO TWINS!!!!!!!!!!!! (did I say that already?)
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |
