Friday, November 22, 2002

Mr. General Manager

Believe it or not, once in a while I get an email from one of my readers telling me what a moron I am.
Either I said something about one of their favorite players or a decision their favorite team made or whatever.

I actually like getting emails like that because I do give a lot of opinions on this website and it isn't fun if everyone agrees with everything you say.

Somewhere within almost all of the negative emails is something along the lines of the following:

"What makes you think you know so much? You're not a GM. You think you know everything?"

To which I say, "What are you, new here?!"

Of course I know everything!
Just joking (mostly).

I do think that I know a lot about baseball and I think I often have some good thoughts and opinions on things baseball related.
As for me not being a GM? Well, yes, that is certainly true.

But, you wanna know a little secret?
I want to be one extremely bad.

My dream is that someday, someone in a Major League Baseball front office reads this website and decides, "Hey, this kid could help our team."
I don't care if it is the Devil Rays or the Yankees, I will work extremely hard and I will work extraordinarily cheap!

But, that hasn't happened yet, so I am still stuck playing the role of General Manager for you guys - which can be a lot of fun too!

Any day now the free agent market is going to start heating up and big names are going to start signing big contracts.
So, I thought it would be a good idea to write a column about all those big free agents out there before they start signing.

Here are my thoughts and opinions about assorted free agents...

Jim Thome |1B/DH| Age: 32

Jim Thome is one of my 3 favorite players (along with Barry Bonds and Bobby Kielty).
That isn't really all that relevant to anything, but I just wanted to let everyone know.

As for his his playing ability?
It is pretty damn good.

Thome had the best season of his career in 2002, hitting .304/.445/.677 with 52 homers in 147 games.
He is not a very good defensive first baseman, but I would be willing to bet that none of the teams interested in signing him care too much about his defense.
They want Jim Thome because he is one of the best hitters of his generation and a pretty good Hall-of-Fame candidate.

Thome has now played 8 full-seasons in the Majors.
He has had an on-base % over .410 in each of those seasons, except for 2000 when his OBP was .398.
He has had a slugging % over .530 in all 8 of his full-seasons.

Thome is pretty good bet to hit about .280-.300 with 40-50 homers and 100+ walks and that is pretty valuable.

Aside from his sub par defense at first base, Jim Thome's other weakness is left handed pitching.

For his career (1,377 games and 4,640 at bats) here are Thome's "splits":

versus righties = .302/.437/.624

versus lefties = .248/.351/.422

That is about as big a split as you will ever see from someone as good as Jim Thome.
In 2002, Thome did show a lot of improvement against left handers, hitting .245/.358/.497.

Besides his interesting splits against lefties and righties, Thome has always had some intriguing home/road numbers...

2000-2002:

at home = .319/.450/.687

on road = .256/.388/.529

Now, Jacobs Field is a good park for hitters, but it isn't that good.
I am not sure exactly what it is, but Jim Thome is a much better hitter at home, almost freakishly so.

This is the part where I am supposed to tell you where I think he will end up signing.
But remember, I am not a GM yet, so I really have no clue and I won't insult everyone by acting like I do.

The Phillies seem to be offering Thome a whole lot more money than the Indians are, so they almost have to be the favorites.
It is tough to turn down an extra $30 million or so and I am pretty certain I couldn't do it, but for a guy who already has his millions, taking less money to stay in Cleveland might not be such a bad idea.

He is a fan favorite there and has a chance to play his entire career with one team.
He has had great success there over the years and has also shown a tendency to be a much better hitter at Jacobs Field than he is anywhere else.
The Indians are rebuilding now, but they have a ton of good prospects and young players and they should be ready to seriously compete again in a year or two, which would coincide nicely with the last half of the 4 year deal Cleveland has offered Thome.

I say if it aint broke, don't fix it - because if he puts up those road numbers (.256/.388/.529) in Philadelphia, no one is gonna be real happy with his decision, except for his agent.

Ivan Rodriguez |C| Age: 31

If Ivan Rodriguez retires today, he is a Hall-of-Famer.

Pudge came up with the Rangers as a 19 year old defensive whiz in 1991.
He won his first of 10 straight Gold Gloves in 1992 and then, in 1994, his hitting started to catch up to his defense.

Rodriguez has never been a big fan of the walk, but he does everything else well at the plate.
His .314 average this season was his 8th year in a row with an average in the .300s.
Along with the great batting averages, Rodriguez also hits for very good home run and doubles power - posting slugging percentages over .500 in each of the last 5 seasons.

While his hitting has been greatly improved from his early days with the Rangers, his durability, which was once extraordinary, has let him down.

After logging at bat totals of 639, 597, 579 and 600 and games played totals of 153, 150, 145 and 144 from 1996-1999, Rodriguez has played in only 91, 111 and 108 games over the last 3 seasons and has not managed over 450 at bats in any of them.

Catchers on the wrong side of 30 usually don't get more durable with age, especially when they have as many innings behind the plate as Rodriguez does.

I don't think Pudge can be counted on to catch 140-150 games a year anymore (and he probably never should've been).
His hitting is showing no signs of slowing down and for team that is willing to play him like a "normal catcher" (100-110 starts a season) he would be extremely valuable.

That said, catchers don't age real well and Pudge's once amazing throwing arm seems to be a little less powerful than it used to be.
He threw out 36.6% of baserunners this year, which is a very good number for a catcher (4th in the AL).
But, 36.6% was the lowest of his entire career and only the 2nd time (first since 1994) that his CS% has been lower than 44%.
For a guy that has had many years in the 54%-56% range, 36.6% is a pretty big dropoff.

If a team signs Rodriguez for more than 2-3 seasons, they are making a gigantic mistake.
His health will be the biggest issue and pretty soon his defense is going to be more of a liability than it is an asset.
I think he will be able to hit forever, but he becomes a whole lot less valuable as a DH.

Roger Clemens |SP| Age: 40

First of all, Roger Clemens is 40 years old and has had a few injury problems recently.
The injuries have not had anything to do with his arm, which is the good news.
The bad news is that they have been mostly of the "nagging" variety and those are the types of injuries that 40 year old ballplayers get.

Counting on Clemens to be the workhorse that he was throughout the 90s is a mistake.
He will most likely miss a week or two every season, at the least, with some sort of groin injury or something.

That said, Roger Clemens can still pitch.
He posted his best strike out rate since 1998 this season, which is the #1 key for him remaining successful.

Clemens' ERA was 4.35, which is not great, especially for Roger Clemens.
However, his DIPS ERA (click here to learn more) was 3.78, which suggests that Clemens got hurt by the sub par Yankee defense that was playing behind him.

I have talked about this in previous columns, but I will say it again...
The Yankees defense, particularly up the middle (Jeter, Soriano and Williams) is not very good and I think Clemens and the other pitchers were hurt a lot by that this season.

Put a better defense behind Clemens and I am confident he could post sub-4.00 ERAs for 2-3 more seasons.
The K rate is still top notch, the walks are actually getting a little better with age and he still does a pretty good job keeping the ball in the ballpark.

At 40 Clemens is most likely looking at a 1 year deal, 2 at the most, with a lot of incentives.
If I had to guess, I would say he re-signs with New York, although I wouldn't be shocked to see him pitching for Texas or Houston and winning his 300th game in his home state.
I think he would be a perfect fit for the Rangers who need starting pitching and have the offense to get Clemens a lot of wins.

Greg Maddux |SP| Age: 36 and Tom Glavine |SP| Age: 36

I grouped these two guys together because, well, that is what they have been since 1993 - together.

Maddux came over to the Braves from the Cubs as a free agent before the 1993 season.
Over the last 10 seasons, he and Glavine have been the 1-2 combo that has been most responsible for the Braves' amazing success.

Like Clemens, both Maddux and Glavine are Hall-of-Famers, with Maddux being one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball.
Also like Clemens, they are both pretty old.

Let's take a look at their last several seasons and see if either of them are slowing down in any of the 3 most important areas for pitchers - strike outs, walks and home runs allowed:

Glavine:

Strike outs per 9 innings:
2002 = 5.1
2001 = 4.8
2000 = 5.7

Glavine has never been much of a strike out pitcher, which makes his great success pretty amazing.
I see no signs of him slowing down in the strike out department.

Walks per 9 innings:
2002 = 3.1
2001 = 4.0
2000 = 2.4

Glavine's walk rate has been jumping around for a while now.
He cut almost a walk per game off his totals from a year ago, which is always good.
Glavine has always walked a fair amount of hitters and his recent rates look pretty much in line with his career.

Home runs per 9 innings:
2002 = 0.84
2001 = 0.99
2000 = 0.90

This is the one area that I see Glavine slipping just a little bit.
Earlier in his career he barely gave up any homers - 6 in 225 IP in 1992, 9 in 199 IP in 1995, 13 in 229 IP in 1998 - but in the last few seasons, he has given up a fair amount.
Nothing really drastic, but a significant increase for sure.

Okay, so Glavine's strike outs are basically the same, his walks fluctuate quite a bit, but are okay and he is giving up a few more homers than he used to.
Another important thing, his durability, has always been outstanding and continues to be so - he has pitched at least 219 innings in each of the last 7 seasons.

Maddux:

Strike outs per 9 innings:
2002 = 5.3
2001 = 6.7
2000 = 6.9

Maddux has the reputation of being a "finesse" pitcher, a guy that uses his brains and veteran "guile" to win ballgames.
I think Maddux is a really smart pitcher, but his image as a soft tosser is one that is misguided.

For most of his career, Maddux was among the league leaders in strike outs.
Now, that is partly due to the fact that he was also usually among the league leaders in innings pitched, but Maddux also had some pretty good K rates.
He has never been in the same class as Roger Clemens as a strike out pitcher, but he is also not in the same one as Tom Glavine.

Maddux's K rate usually resides around 6.7-7.0, which is why his 5.3 Ks/9 this season is a little troubling.

Maddux battled through some nagging injuries for much of the season and perhaps that had a large effect on his strike outs.
Whatever the reason for the drop in K rate, for Maddux to remain the same great pitcher he has been, he is going to need to get it back up in the 6.0s.

Walks per 9 innings:
2002 = 2.0
2001 = 1.0
2000 = 1.5

Greg Maddux hasn't walked more than 45 batters in a season since 1993, which is pretty fantastic when you consider how many innings he usually throws.
His 2.0 walks per 9 this season was his worst rate since 1992, but it is still very good.
As with the strike outs, I think the injuries may have played a role in his walking a few more batters this season.

Home runs per 9 innings:
2002 = 0.63
2001 = 0.77
2000 = 0.69

Maddux has never given up more than 20 homers in a season and his home run rate remained very good this season.

So, Maddux's strike outs went down quite a bit this season, which is troubling.
His walks went up a little bit, but remain very good and his home run rate continues to be excellent.
His durability is in some question because of the hip injury he had to deal with this year.
As with Clemens, the good news is that it was not an arm injury, but the bad news is that it was a hip injury (which, coincidently is like the stereotypical injury for old age, right?).

Glavine's rates all look pretty stable and his durability remains very good.
The only area of concern, other than his age, is the fact that he has one of the highest fly ball tendencies in baseball, which is a good thing when you have Andruw Jones behind you in center field, but might not be such a good thing if he signs with a team that doesn't have one of the best defensive center fielders of all-time on its roster.

Maddux's strike out rate dropped quite a bit in 2002, but his other rates remained very good and consistent.
His durability is not as good as it once was and he is more of an injury concern than Glavine is at this point.

I hope they both re-sign with the Braves and finish their careers there, but that seems incredibly unlikely.
I am not sure which one I would rather have for the next couple of seasons because I think they will both be good pitchers for a while.

For a team with a spacious park and/or a good outfield defense, Glavine would be my choice.
On another team, particularly one with a good infield defense, Maddux would probably be my choice.

Jeff Kent |2B| Age: 34, Edgardo Alfonzo |3B/2B| Age: 29, Ray Durham |2B| Age: 31

Welcome to our little game of "Musical Second Basemen."

The way I see, there are 4 main factors involved in decided who the best option for a team is among these 3 second basemen.

1) Cost
2) Age/Health
3) Offense
4) Defense

I would guess that their respective prices will go like this:
1) Jeff Kent
2) Edgardo Alfonzo
3) Ray Durham

As long as we are ranking them like that, let's go ahead and do the other 3 factors...

Age/Health:
1) Ray Durham
2) Edgardo Alfonzo
3) Jeff Kent

Alfonzo is actually the youngest of the 3, but he has had some fairly serious problems with his back, which is never good.
Durham is younger than Kent and has played in 150+ games in each of the last 7 seasons.
Jeff Kent is the oldest of the 3, but, aside from motorcycle accidents, he has been very durable, playing in 152, 159 and 159 games over the last 3 years.

I think Durham is head and shoulders above the other 2 as far as age/health are concerned and even though Kent is much older than Alfonzo, Edgardo's injury concerns make them a lot closer in this category.

Offense:
1) Jeff Kent
2) Edgardo Alfonzo
3) Ray Durham

Kent gets the nod here and it isn't even close.
His average EqA over the last 3 seasons is .320 and his lowest total in that span is .304.

Alfonzo's EqA in for the last 3 seasons is .297 and it includes a .260 EqA in 2001.

Durham's 3-year average EqA is .288 and that is basically the general level of performance he has shown his entire career.

Defense:
1) Ray Durham
2) Edgardo Alfonzo
3) Jeff Kent

Most people would probably have Alfonzo at #1 and Durham at #2, but I think that is going more on "reputation" and past performance than it is on current abilities.

Alfonzo has a reputation as a great defensive 2B, but a) he didn't play 2B at all this season and b) when he did play 2B, in 1999-2001, he wasn't really that great statistically.
Baseball Prospectus shows him as -7, -2 and -7 runs defensively at second base compared to the "average" 2B during those 3 seasons.
From personal observations, I think Alfonzo was a pretty good defensive 2B, but he has had back problems and an entire year away from the position, so I don't think he can be considered great anymore and maybe never should have been.

BP shows Ray Durham as +5 this season and +7 and -1 in 2001 and 2000.
As a Twins fan I watched Ray Durham play a lot while he was in the Central Division and I think he is a pretty solid defender at 2B.
Oakland used him as a DH this year, but I think that had more to do with Mark Ellis and them not knowing whether or not Durham was going to be on the team in the future than it did Durham's defense.

BP shows Jeff Kent as +12 this season and +11 and +/- 0 in 2001 and 2000.
From personal observations I find it hard to believe Kent has been +12 and +11 the past 2 years.
In his career prior to 2001, he basically hovered around being even (+/- 0).
It is possible that Kent has improved with age and experience, but I am skeptical at best.

All 3 of these guys are definitely solid defensive second basemen.
I don't think any of them are Gold Glove caliber, but they are all pretty good.

To recap our little ranking system:

Jeff Kent is: the most expensive / worst age/health / best offensive player / worst defensive player

Edgardo Alfonzo is: 2nd most expensive / 2nd in age/health / 2nd best offensive player / 2nd best defensive player

Ray Durham is: the least expensive / best age/healthy / 3rd best offensive player / best defensive player

If I were running a team (and just to remind everyone - I am not) I think I would go after Ray Durham.
He is incredibly consistant and durable, he plays good defense, is a solid offensive player and he is likely the cheapest of the 3, possibly by a wide margin.

Jeff Kent will have the most impact on a ballclub and is the best player of the 3, but he is probably going to be very expensive and he is getting up there in years, which is not a real good thing for a middle infielder.
For a contending, veteran ballclub with no major financial limitations, Kent would be a good choice.

Edgardo Alfonzo is probably more reasonably priced than Jeff Kent and he is the youngest of the 3, but back injuries worry me and I am not very confident in his defense at 2B at this point.

Give me a good ballclub with a decent sized payroll and I would rank them, all things (age, money, performance) considered:

1) Ray Durham
2) Jeff Kent
3) Edgardo Alfonzo

Just to make myself clear: I am not saying I would rather have Ray Durham than Jeff Kent. I am saying that when taking their salaries and ages into account, I would rather make a commitment to Ray Durham as my second baseman. Got it?

I await your emails...
For those of you interested, you can just copy my quote from the beginning of this column and paste it into your emails to save some time and energy.

Here it is again (for those of you too lazy to even scroll back up to the top of the page!):

"What makes you think you know so much? You're not a GM. You think you know everything?"

Feel free to leave it like it is or maybe consider adding in some specifics about a certain team or player or something I said.

Thursday, November 21, 2002

News and notes

Sorry about the lack of a column yesterday.
I had a very hectic/busy/exciting day.

I actually managed to get to bed at a somewhat normal hour, which is very rare for me.
After I got up, I went to my classes for the day.
And after the classes...I had an interview at The Minnesota Daily, which is "An Independent Student Newspaper at the University of Minnesota."

I am pretty confident that the interview went well.
I was asked who my favorite writers were and I responded, "Rob Neyer, Bill James..." and was met with a blank look of non-recognition by the Sports Editor.
Not a big deal, but I guess I won't be receiving any sabermetric special treatment!

So, depending on whether or not I was as nice and charming as I think I was today, I might be working for "The Nation's Largest, Entirely Student Run College Newspaper," which would be a pretty big deal in my life.

Of course, I will keep all of my loyal readers updated.

Back to baseball...

I got a lot of emails regarding my last entry about the Royals releasing Neifi Perez.
I really enjoy getting feedback, positive, negative and in-between, about what I write on this website.
So thanks to everyone that emailed me about Neifi, I am glad you (generally) really liked the entry.

Loyal reader "Rick S." notified me last night that we already have a winner in the "Who signs Neifi contest."
For those of you not familar with this important topic, here is what I wrote in the column:

"I guarantee a team will sign Neifi Perez this off-season, which will give us a chance to see which of the GMs belongs in the group with Allard Baird.
Let's call it the "Cam Bonifay Club For Bad GMs" or "CBCFBGMs" for short.
I am pretty confident the GM that decides he needs an appointment with the Worst Doctor In The World is not going to be mine (Terry Ryan) and I only hope, for your sake, that it isn't yours either."

Well, I was right, my GM wasn't interested in Neifi.

Amazingly enough though, a General Manager that I actually think is a pretty good one claimed Neifi Perez off waivers today.
In an effort to surround The Best Player in the History of the World with the worst possible teammates, Giants GM Brian Sabean brought Neifi Perez on board with the NL Champs.

This situation isn't exactly what I was hoping for and I don't think we have a new member of the "CBCFBGMs."
I envisioned a GM signing Neifi to a 2 or 3 year deal for a few million bucks and immediately naming him the starting shortstop.
Sabean put an end to all of that by claiming Neifi and immediately making him, at best, a back up infielder.
And really, having Neifi Perez as a cheap back up infielder isn't such a horrible idea.
He is still a decent defensive shortstop that can also play second base and having him back up a full-time, everyday shortstop like Rich Aurilia isn't going to hurt the Giants too much.
Unless Neifi is in Sabean's plans as Jeff Kent's replacement at second base...

So, our potential fun has been squashed (I think) and we don't have a new member in the CBCFBGMs club - yet.
Fear not, there will be plenty of idiotic moves yet to come this off-season.

Some other minor transactions (apparently a lot of you guys - or at least the ones that email me - really enjoy my breakdowns of the most minor of transactions)...

The Red Sox signed Julio Zuleta to a minor league contract.

And thus, The Bill James Era begins! (just joking)

Juilo Zuleta is a nice signing for a team that didn't have very good production at first base for much of last season.

Zuleta had been stuck playing for the Cubs' AAA team (Iowa Cubs) for 2 straight seasons and was actually all signed to go play in Japan this year before injuries ended that plan.
So instead of Japan, Zuleta was back to Iowa for a 3rd season in AAA.

While at AAA, he did what he normally does, which is hit:

2002 (AAA) = .293/.362/.550 with 31 homers in 444 at bats.

Zuleta doesn't draw very many walks, but he hits for a good average and hits for excellent power.

2001 (AAA) = .308/.348/.541 in 146 ABs.
2000 (AAA) = .311/.372/.579 in 392 ABs.
1999 (AA) = .295/.361/.519 in 482 ABs.

Somewhere in there Zuleta managed to play in 79 games for the Cubs.

Here are his Major League stats:

.247/.310/.466 with 9 homers and 11 doubles in 174 ABs.

174 ABs is a small sample size, but I think that is pretty close to the level Zuleta will hit for if given a semi-everyday chance in the Majors.

His Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for the last 4 years in the minors:

2002 = .262/.326/.469
2001 = .276/.304/.468
2000 = .279/.324/.496
1999 = .272/.318/.467

Those are pretty consistent numbers.

A first baseman/DH that hits .270/.320/.475 isn't going to remind anyone of Jason Giambi, but he could be a useful stopgap for a team that spent much of last season watching Tony Clark hit .207/.265/.291 as their first baseman.

Zuleta is a right handed hitter, so I suspect he has a good chance to be one half of a first base platoon with left handed hitting Brian Daubach, which would be a productive duo.

San Diego gave Damian Jackson his unconditional release.

Jackson wasn't really needed by the Tigers because they have gone and locked up about 3 or 4 mediocre infielders (Easley, Paquette, Halter, etc) to long term contracts and also have a couple of decent, young prospects that need playing time.

So, Damian Jackson is a free agent and, while he won't be getting any big time offers, he could be a nice spare part for several teams.
One of the teams that could use Damian Jackson is my very own Minnesota Twins.

As anyone who has been a reader of this website for any significant length of time knows, I am not really happy with the Twins current second baseman, Luis Rivas.
I have discussed Rivas in great length several times here and other places, so I won't bore everyone with more of that.
I will however say that Damian Jackson would make a very nice backup infielder for both Rivas and shortstop Cristian Guzman.

Here are Jackson's stats for the past few seasons:

2002 = .257/.320/.359 (245 ABs)
2001 = .241/.316/.343 (440 ABs)
2000 = .255/.345/.377 (470 ABs)
1999 = .224/.320/.356 (388 ABs)

Basically, Jackson is good for about .250/.320/.350 or so with some good defense at both middle infield positions.
He also has some good speed on the bases (101 career steals with only 26 caught stealing).

Damian Jackson is nothing special, but he hits pretty much like Luis Rivas does and his defense at second base would be a huge improvement.
I wouldn't mind seeing him as the second back up infielder (behind Denny "I am worth $1 million a year" Hocking).

Tampa Bay released Ryan Rupe.

Before I say anything about Ryan Rupe, it should be noted that I have him on one of my Diamond-Mind keeper league teams.

I think Ryan Rupe has the ability to be a good Major League starting pitcher and his chances of doing so probably just got a lot better, despite being released.
The Devil Rays might be moving in a new direction with the hiring of Lou Piniella, but I would still rather be a young pitcher in just about any other organization.

Rupe has pitched 467 ML innings and has a 5.84 ERA, but there are some signs that he could be a productive pitcher.

He has always had a pretty good strike out rate.
This year he struck out 6.7/9 innings and for his MLB career he has also struck out 6.7/9.
Rupe also has rapidly improving control.
His walks allowed per 9 innings have dropped in each of his Major League seasons, from 3.6 in 1999 to 3.1 in 2000 to 3.0 in 2001 to 2.5 this year.

Ryan Rupe's biggest problem has always been and probably will continue to be his homerific tendencies.
In his 467 Major League innings he has allowed 77 homers, which is almost in Jose Lima territory.

Ryan Rupe has been hurt by some bad Tampa Bay defense and probably some not-so-great Tampa Bay coaching.

If he can latch on to another organization I think he can become a solid back of the rotation starter, and if he ever solves his home run problems, he could be very good.

Speaking of my Diamond-Mind keeper league team...

The Minnesota Gophers advanced to the American League Championship series in the "Three Run Homer League."
After losing the first 2 games of the series, the Gophers responded by winning the next 4 to take the series 4 games to 2.

Next up for the cinderella story Gophers is a matchup with one of the 2 100+ win teams.

As always, I will keep everyone updated (whether you like it or not!).

Tuesday, November 19, 2002

The Worst Doctor in the World

I got a lot of emails saying people enjoyed my column from a few days ago about several less than earthshaking transactions.
Apparently you guys are almost as baseball obsessed as I am...which is great!

There was another highly intriguing transaction yesterday that probably won't get many headlines...

Kansas City waived shortstop Neifi Perez.
This transaction brought to mind a bit I remember hearing George Carlin do.

He basically said:

"Do you realize that somewhere in the world is the worst doctor? There is a guy who is a doctor, but he is the worst doctor. And somewhere, someone has an appointment to see him!

Neifi Perez was baseball's version of the worst doctor in the world this year.
For the past season and a half, the Royals have not only had an appointment to see him, they traded Jermaine Dye and about $5 million bucks for the appointment!

The Royals acquired Neifi from the Colorado Rockies in a 3 team trade that also involved the Oakland A's.

If you didn't know much about Kansas City General Manager Allard Baird's background as a GM, that 3-way trade would be all you needed to know to make your decision on whether or not he was a good GM.

He traded Jermaine Dye, who was slumping at the time but was coming off of back-to-back 115+ RBI seasons, for a shortstop who's hitting performance was barely adequate/
That is bad enough.
What makes it infinitely worse is the fact that those barely acceptable hitting stats were accomplished while playing in Coors Field!

Here are Neifi's stats for his time with the Rockies:

1997 = .291/.333/.444 (313 ABs)
1998 = .274/.313/.382 (647 ABs)
1999 = .280/.307/.403 (690 ABs)
2000 = .287/.314/.427 (651 ABs)
2001 = .298/.326/.445 (382 ABs)

Well, one thing you have to admit is that Neifi's power was "developing" a little bit - his slugging % went up every year since 1998.

Like I said, those numbers aren't really all that bad for a shortstop - unless he is playing half his games in the GREATEST HITTING ENVIRONMENT IN BASEBALL HISTORY!

Slugging %s in the low .400s just don't cut the mustard in Coors Field and Neifi Perez's translated stats, which take home ballpark into account, showed him to be a pretty horrendous hitter.

1997 = .251 Equivalent Average (EqA)
1998 = .228 EqA
1999 = .224 EqA
2000 = .230 EqA
2001 = .248 EqA

Just to put those stats into context...

Royce Clayton hit .251/.295/.365 this season for the White Sox and he had an EqA of .238.
Rey Ordonez hit .254/.292/.324 this season for the Mets and he had an EqA of .226.

So, basically, Allard Baird traded Jermaine Dye for a guy that, for his career up to that point, had hit similarly to how Royce Clayton and Rey Ordonez hit this season.

Like I said, not a real good trade.

Baird was no doubt intrigued by those nice, shiny, Coors inflated stats, which even included some decent "power" numbers because Perez often got 650-700 at bats.
Plus, Neifi won the NL Gold Glove in 2000!

Predictably, to almost everyone on the planet except for those in the Kansas City front office, Neifi Perez has continued to suck since the trade.

His performance with KC...

2001 = .241/.277/.302 (199 ABs)
2002 = .236/.260/.303 (554 ABs)

Now, that is some bad hitting.
But guess what?
It really isn't all the much worse than how Neifi hit in Colorado, he just has not had the benefit of Coors Field.

Remember those EqAs with the Rockies?
.251
.228
.224
.230
.248

Perez's EqAs with Royals:
.203
.194

Like I said, those are really awful, but they aren't all that different from his Colorado numbers.

Aside from his putrid hitting, Neifi Perez's fielding, which was presumably his strong suit, has fallen off a cliff as well.

Baseball Prospectus calculates how many runs better than a "replacement level player" a person is on defense in each season.

In 1998 Perez was +16 runs (meaning he was 16 runs better than a replacement SS).
In 1999 he was +14.
In 2000 he was +23 (extremely good and probably deserving of the Gold Glove he won that year).

In his half season with the Rockies in 2001 before being traded, Perez was +7, which would have been about +13 prorated to a whole season.

And since coming to KC?
Neifi Perez is +1 in about 1.5 seasons worth of fielding.

So, to recap:
His hitting always stunk, but it has gotten even stinkier since coming to Kansas City.
His fielding was actually once very good, but it has completely collapsed since coming to Kansas City.

Oh, I almost forgot one more thing!
Neifi was part of "Age Gate" and he actually aged 2 entire years in the off-season!
His "new" age actually makes a whole lot of sense in regard to his career "progression."

His 3 full seasons with Colorado (1998, 1999 and 2000) were actually his "peak" years - ages 25, 26 and 27 - instead of 23, 24 and 25 like everyone thought at the time, which makes his slight increase in power make sense.
And his awful 2002 was actually his age 29 season, which might explain his sudden drop in defensive ability.

Allard Baird must be given a little bit of slack because of the age situation.
In all fairness, he thought he was trading for a 26 year old that couldn't hit, not a 28 year old that couldn't hit.

Apparently Baird woke up this morning and smelled the suckiness, because he came to his senses and cut bait on Neifi Perez.

This shocking development actually creates a fun opportunity for all of us.
I guarantee a team will sign Neifi Perez this off-season, which will give us a chance to see which of the GMs belongs in the group with Allard Baird.
Let's call it the "Cam Bonifay Club For Bad GMs" or "CBCFBGMs" for short.

I am pretty confident the GM that decides he needs an appointment with the Worst Doctor In The World is not going to be mine (Terry Ryan) and I only hope, for your sake, that it isn't yours either.

Monday, November 18, 2002

You don't have to go home, but you've got to get the %#&@ out of Coors

I don't know that I will ever really be able to have a solid grasp of the details and monetary committments involved, but I am fairly certain that Mike Hampton is now an Atlanta Brave.

To me, this is an absolutely fascinating trade on so many levels.

It involves two teams that have given out such horrendous contracts that they are willing to make great sacrifices just to lessen the burden of them.

The Colorado Rockies gave Mike Hampton an 8 year/$121 million dollar contract prior to the 2001 season.
To rid themselves of Hampton and his massive contract, the Rockies were willing to take on several horrible, but less massive contracts.

They took on Charles Johnson, who is still owed $25 million dollars over the next 3 seasons and they took on Preston Wilson, who will be paid $27.5 million over those same 3 seasons.
In addition to those two albatrosses on the payroll, the Rockies also accepted Vic Darensbourg and his $1.1 million dollar contract for 2003 (and a $200,000 buyout for 2004).

The Florida Marlins received Mike Hampton and Juan Pierre.
Pierre is under contract for 3 more seasons at the total cost of $6.6 million dollars, which is bad, but makes him look like the bargain of the century compared to the rest of this group.
The Marlins then turned around and flipped Mike Hampton to the Braves in exchange for Tim Spooneybarger and a "Player To Be Named Later," otherwise known as the famous PTBNL.

So, it would seem fairly obvious that the Marlins got the better end of that deal, right?
They got rid of Johnson, Wilson and Darensbourg's contracts, while taking on Hampton's horrible contract, but they eventually rid themselves of that too.

Ah, but it is not so simple.
In order to get the Braves to accept Hampton and his remaining contract, the Marlins had to agree to pay a very large chunk of it.

Let's recap:

The Rockies gave Mike Hampton (and, to a lesser extent, Juan Pierre) such horrible contracts that they were willing to take on Charles Johnson, Preston Wilson and Vic Darensbourg and pay them for the remainder of their bad contracts.

The Marlins had given out such bad contracts to Charles Johnson, Preston Wilson and Vic Darensbourg that they were willing to take on Juan Pierre's contract and pay a large portion of Mike Hampton's contract - a player that will never even pitch an inning for them.

Is that what today's baseball trading has come to?
Teams so desperate to unload the idiotic decisions that they made just one or two off-seasons ago that they are willing to just swap bad contracts with other teams and even pay huge portions of contracts for players that have never and will never even be on their team?!

Apparently.

The Braves end of this deal is the only one that was a purely baseball move (remember those?).
They acquired Mike Hampton.
Let me rephrase that: They acquired Mike Hampton and a significantly lessened financial obligation, in exchange for Spooneybarger and (presumably) a minor league prospect.

So, who won this deal?
Yeah, right, as if it were that simple!

Even if I completely understood which teams were paying what portions of which players salaries (which I absolutely do not), it would still be impossible to really judge this trade because of 1 thing: Coors Field.

Never before in the history of Major League Baseball has there been a playing environment that changes the actual game being played (and thus the strategies, both in game and front office) to such a extraordinary degree.
Good pitchers have come to pitch in Colorado.
Pitchers coming off of good seasons and even multiple good seasons.
Pitchers in the primes of their careers.
And every single one of them has failed to pitch even close to as well as they did for their previous teams.

What makes Coors Field more amazing is the fact that some of those good pitchers have actually left Colorado - I should say have been allowed to leave Colorado - and have gone on to pitch as well or even better than they did prior to making Coors Field their home park.

Here are the best examples of guys I could find that had significant time pitching in Colorado and significant time pitching somewhere other than Colorado:

Darryl Kile per 9 innings pitched:
Before Colorado = 3.79 ERA - 8.5 Hits - 7.3 Ks- 4.2 BBs -0.7 HRs
With Colorado = 5.84 ERA - 10.3 Hits - 5.9 Ks - 4.4 BBs - 1.3 HRs
After Colorado = 3.54 ERA - 8.7 Hits - 7.0 Ks - 2.5 BBs - 1.1 HRs

Pedro Astacio per 9 innings pitched:
Before Colorado = 3.68 ERA - 8.6 Hits - 6.1 Ks - 2.8 BBs - 0.8 HRs
With Colorado = 5.43 ERA - 10.0 Hits - 8.1 Ks - 2.1 BBs - 1.5 HRs
After Colorado = 4.58 ERA - 9.1 Hits - 7.0 Ks - 2.7 BBs - 1.3 HRs

Jamey Wright per 9 innings pitched:
With Colorado = 5.57 ERA - 10.8 Hits - 4.0 Ks - 4.3 BBs - 1.0 HRs
After Colorado = 4.73 ERA - 9.0 Hits - 5.6 Ks - 4.8 BBs - 1.0 HRs

Curtis Leskanic per 9 innings pitched:
With Colorado = 4.92 ERA - 9.0 Hits - 7.9 Ks - 4.2 BBs - 1.0 HRs
After Colorado = 3.07 ERA - 7.4 Hits - 8.5 Ks - 5.0 BBs - 1.1 HRs

What is the basic effect on these pitchers?
Well, it is a mixed bag.

All of their ERA's were worse in Colorado, that is almost a given.

As for the other stuff...
Hits were up across the board - usually about 1.5-2.0 per 9 innings, which is a lot.
Colorado didn't seem to have a big impact on walks allowed, as most saw their BBs/9 stay about the same.
Strike outs, on the other hand, were significantly effected, except for Pedro Astacio.
Kile's Ks went down upon coming to Colorado and then went back up after leaving.
Jamey Wright saw his K rate rise about 40% after leaving the thin air and Curtis Leskanic saw a slight jump in Ks after leaving Coors.
And then there are the homers - in general homers went up, but not as much as I suspected they would.

The biggest impacts seem to come in Ks and Hits allowed, which would make sense.
The ballpark is bigger AND when you aren't striking out as many guys, more balls get hit into play and more hits start dropping.

What does all that mean for Mike Hampton?
Mike Hampton per 9 innings pitched:
Before Colorado = 3.44 ERA - 8.8 Hits - 6.1 Ks - 3.5 BBs - 0.6 HRs
With Colorado = 5.75 ERA - 10.9 Hits - 4.6 Ks - 4.1 BBs - 1.3 HRs
After Colorado = ????

My little "study" was completely unscientific, so I am doing nothing more than guessing with a little statistical background, but...
I would suspect that Hampton will see his strike outs go back up to about the same level they were before Colorado - somewhere in the 6.0-6.5 range.
That rise in Ks, along with Atlanta's more friendly dimensions, should mean his hits allowed will go back towards a more "normal" level - I would guess somewhere in the 9.0-9.5 range.
The walks will probably stay about the same and the homers will almost surely fall quite a bit.

Mike Hampton is not a good bet to be the same pitcher he was before he joined the Rockies, but the impact that pitching in Coors has, both on your pitching and your mental approach, can not be underestimated and his numbers almost have to get a lot better just because he isn't pitching there in half his games.

My prediction for Hampton in 2003?

200-210 Innings Pitched
3.75-4.25 ERA

Let's assume that he can pitch similarly to that for at least his first few years in Atlanta, is that worth Tim Spooneybarger and about $6 million bucks a year?
Well, I like Spooneybarger and I think he will be a very good reliever, but if the Braves can get 200 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA from Hampton, it is probably worth it.

On the other hand, there are easier ways to acquire a good-but-not-great starting pitcher and I think I would have chosen a different route if I were running the Braves.

Ignoring the financial aspects of this trade (the details are sketchy and the big numbers make my head hurt), what are the baseball-only ramifications?

To Atlanta:
Mike Hampton

To Florida:
Juan Pierre
Tim Spooneybarger
PTBNL

To Colorado:
Charles Johnson
Preston Wilson
Vic Darensbourg
Pablo Ozuna

I actually like what the Marlins did here.
Spooneybarger is going to be a valuable pitcher.
Juan Pierre is going to struggle to keep his slugging % above .350, but he is a good defensive center fielder.
And if the PTBNL turns out to anyone decent, it is just an added bonus.

Atlanta gets a new quality starting pitcher, although one that is not without substantial risk.

Colorado gets an old, injury prone catcher, a reasonably productive outfielder that will struggle horribly covering center field in Colorado, a lefty reliever that stinks and a former shortstop prospect that will be lucky to have a career as a utility infielder.

I hope the Rockies saved a ton of money with this deal, because the players they got are certainly not going to push them toward a championship.
The one bright side is that it will probably be a whole lot easier to try to trade Johnson and/or Wilson than it was trading Hampton.

Atlanta made a good, slightly risky decision that was made a whole lot less risky by the Marlins (and Rockies) picking up a lot of the tab on Hampton.

And the Marlins got rid of 2 bad contracts and got 1 good reliever and possibly a nice prospect - although it did cost them some money.

Like I said, this is an incredibly fascinating trade for many reasons.

Mike Hampton will now provide another data point, along with Kile and Astacio, on the analysis of good starting pitchers that pitched in Coors and left for better environments.

Like I said, there are easier, less risky ways to go about acquiring a good starting pitcher.
Instead of losing Spooneybarger, the PTBNL and paying Hampton $6 mill a season, I might have just given Tom Glavine a 3 year contract for $10 million a year and considered the little extra money worth it to keep Spooneybarger and stay away from the potential risk that Hampton might just be completely done as a good pitcher.

But, this deal likely means the end to Tom Glavine's days in Atlanta, which is a real shame.
For some reason I think it is a good thing when a player plays his entire career in one place, but after 16 seasons with the Braves, Glavine will be pitching every 5th day and adding on to his Hall-of-Fame credentials for someone else in 2003.

Baseball is a wacky game and something inside tells me I would have liked being a fan a whole lot better in the days when teams weren't paying portions of people's contracts and salaries weren't being dumped quite as often.
Although, this type of stuff can be fun too, as long as you have a good calculator.