AB     AVG     OBP     SLG      OPS    HR    2B    RBI    RUN

31    .387    .441    .741    1.183     3     2      7      5

G      IP     ERA    H    SO    BB    HR    OAVG    OOBP    OSLG

6    12.1    0.00    7    16     3     0    .159    .213    .182

LVL     AVG     OBP     SLG

AAA    .296    .388    .492

 AA    .273    .383    .473

  A    .294    .392    .480

 C    Ramon Castro

1B    Shawn Wooten

2B    Jason Grabowski

SS    Benji Gil

3B    Mike Kinkade

LF    Javier Valentin

CF    Bobby Kielty

RF    Craig Wilson

I do think a lot of [Guzman's] disappointing play over the last season and a half has been due to various injuries. At times over the past two seasons it seems as though Guzman is simply being lazy on defense; making lazy, off-target throws to first base, not bending enough on routine grounders and occasionally letting one go right through his legs and simply not showing the range he showed when he first came up in 1999. I believe Guzman is a little lackadaisical by nature, but I also think a lot of that "laziness" is actually the effects of leg and foot injuries.

When you look at his stolen base and triples totals, it becomes painfully obvious that Guzman has something wrong with him:

2000 + 2nd half of 2001 = 45/61 in stolen bases (74%) with 33 triples in 998 at bats (1 every 30 ABs).

2nd half of 2001 + 2002 = 20/35 in stolen bases (57%) with 7 triples in 769 at bats (1 every 110 ABs).

There was nothing more exciting than watching Cristian Guzman smack a line drive into the gap someplace and seeing him sprint around the bases, knowing full well he’d be sliding into third base before the play was over. Cristian Guzman has not been the same player since he came back from the all-star game in 2001.

There were some signs of life in the second-half last season. After a miserable first-half that included a .273 OBP and going 6/16 on stolen base attempts, Guzman hit .292/.315/.440 in the second-half and even managed to steal more bases than times caught (6/9). I am cautiously optimistic with Guzman, as I think most Twins fans are. I could see him putting together a .290/.320/.440 season and I am hoping to see him sprinting around second base as the relay throw comes in from right field at least 10 times this year.

#10) Rocco Baldelli
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Age: 21
Pos: CF

Bats: Right
Yo, Rocco! (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself)

When someone with as many "tools" as Rocco Baldelli puts everything together and has a season like he did in 2002, a lot of people get excited, and rightfully so.

Toolsy high school outfielders tend to have problems actually performing well, so it is big news when a guy jumps through 3 levels of a minor league system, wins Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year and hits .330 with 19 homers and 28 doubles - all at the age of 20.

Before you get too excited, keep in mind that Baldelli only drew 23 walks combined between those 3 levels and 2 of them were intentional. Plus, he didn’t draw a single walk in almost 100 plate appearances at Triple-A.

Baldelli is a line drive machine with plus speed and solid base stealing instincts that should get even better with more experience. On defense, he is a natural centerfielder with good speed, great athleticism and the ability to glide to balls in the gaps.

There is an awful lot here to get really excited about and the Devil Rays have shown a willingness to promote players very aggressively. However, the fact is that most players not named "Soriano" have a pretty difficult time being superstars while walking twice a month.

Baldelli is a step ahead of most toolsy high schoolers at this point, but the coaching he receives in the near future will play a gigantic part in whether or not he becomes a star. I’d feel better if that coaching was coming from an organization other than Tampa Bay, but he’ll have to make the most of what they have to offer him.

Rocco Baldelli’s "ceiling" is as high as anyone’s and he looks like a potential MVP candidate, but he’s going to make it very difficult on himself if he doesn’t start taking some walks. Short term, I wouldn’t expect him to hit .330 in the Majors anytime soon, which is what he’ll have to do to make himself valuable with such an atrocious walk rate.

"Use an Internet search engine to find an argumentative piece on a favorite pastime/activity, summarize and analyze it. Then, brainstorm about what you like and dislike about it. From these two resources, construct a thesis and write a two-paragraph essay."

"After reading “2003's Top 50 Prospects” by Aaron Gleeman at http://www.baseballprimer.com/articles/gleeman_2003-01-27_0.shtml it puts a bad taste in my mouth. Gleeman speaks about players from the major leagues and also the minors. This in not the problem, many players are shuffled from the majors to the minors and back, so looking at both is very important. My problem is with the formula he uses to decide who is better than who and so forth. He even states in his article that it is “an extremely inexact science."

I do not understand how you can feel confident with your decisions when you say before hand that the way to the conclusion is extremely inexact. I do not know for sure, but I feel as if there could be more than a couple players that are on the fence and who could have made the top 50 and didn’t.

Thesis: Aaron Gleeman should refine his formula so it is more of an exact science before he goes ahead and ranks players. Only then can he have a half way decent list of players that fall into the top 50 prospects of 2003."

"What would you recommend to someone who wants to learn more about baseball? Of course, they should have the SBE and your book, as well as subscribe to your ATM reports. But, outside of those, what is the best route, in your opinion? And, what should people avoid?"

"There's a lot of good material out there. I'd put subscribing to Baseball Prospectus at the top of the list. I also highly recommend Rob Neyer's columns and anything by John Sickels. There are some good baseball blogs out there, with my favorite one being Aaron's Baseball Blog. It's really hard to list specific sites since I'm going to inevitably end up also missing a bunch of other good ones. But, these are definitely among those that really stand out.

"A.J. Burnett, returned from the disabled-list and made his first start of the season yesterday, against the Mets. I didn't see any of it, but the boxscore line looks very encouraging.

He went 7 innings, striking out 4 and walking only 1. He did give up 5 hits and a homer to Jeromy Burnitz, but allowed only 2 runs and, most importantly, was taken out of the ballgame after throwing only 80 pitches. I am still not confident about his long-term success, simply because of his idiot manager and the way his arm has been abused and likely will be abused, but I will hold off on more bashing of Torborg as long as he keeps those pitch-counts reasonable. Who knows, maybe he has seen the light."

"The Florida Marlins are playing well and were helped out when staff ace A.J. Burnett returned to the starting rotation last Wednesday, but there are some internal disputes. Near the end of spring training, club president David Samson wanted manager Jeff Torborg to fire pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, but Torborg refused. Then a week into the season, when Josh Beckett, who has nine career wins, was critical of Ivan Rodriguez's pitch calling, the assault on Arnsberg continued, and got heated enough so that there was some pressure put on Torborg's job. Stay tuned."

"Hideki Matsui will prove all of the idiots that say he won't hit for power in the United States completely wrong."

"Matsui will have a tremendous season and will be one of the best outfielders in the major leagues. Some people have compared his offensive game to Brian Giles'. While I think that comparison is a decent one, I don't think he will walk as much Giles does (135 BBs last year), so I think a better comp would be Ryan Klesko.

Since coming to San Diego, Klesko has had batting averages of .283, .286 and .300, on-base percentages of .393, .384, .388 and slugging percentages of .516, .539 and .537. Those are the types of numbers I think Matsui will put up in 2003. I'll officially say .290/.390/.525, with some pretty good defense in left field."

Foppert is a converted shortstop/first baseman that is now the best starting pitching prospect in baseball.

The Giants grabbed him with their 2nd round pick in 2001 and he won the Northwest League ERA title in his first year, posting a 1.93 ERA.

San Francisco decided to take a chance with Foppert and they had him skip high-A, starting him at Double-A Shreveport in 2002. Foppert had no problems with the jump and dominated the Texas league to the tune of 10.9 Ks/9 IPs and a 2.79 ERA.

The Giants promoted him to Triple-A at mid-season, where he continued to rack up gigantic strike out totals, although he did give up 12 homers in 79 innings there.

There isn’t much not to like about Jesse Foppert. He’s 6-6 and has a perfect pitcher’s physique and throws an overpowering fastball, a great cut-fastball and a solid, developing slider. His actual performance thus far has been extraordinary. In 210 professional innings pitched Foppert has 271 strikeouts to go along with 79 walks and only 150 hits allowed. Even better, his strike out rate has not gone down as he advances to tougher levels of competition, as his 12.4 Ks/9 IPs in Triple-A would attest to.

The Giants have not been conservative with Foppert so far, so how soon he sees action with the big club is an unknown. At the latest, expect to see him make an appearance at Pac Bell (or whatever the heck they are going to call it) by mid-season.

He’s the real deal.

Today's picks:
Philadelphia (Millwood) -140 over Cincinnati (Haynes)
Los Angeles (Brown) +130 over San Francisco (Schmidt)
Milwaukee (Kinney) +335 over Arizona (Schilling)
Detroit (Cornejo) +180 over Chicago (Stewart)
Kansas City (George) +120 over Cleveland (Sabathia)
Baltimore (Johnson) +330 over Boston (Martinez)

"Jose Vidro is my favorite player in the major leagues. He's a hustling, dirty-uniform type of player who gets every last ounce of value out of his limited but obvious talent. He's a terrific hitter for doubles and average, a consistent .300-plus hitter who makes his money by roping line drives to all fields. He had a very nasty shoulder injury (broken bone) last spring, he played hurt all year, and still improved his power versus righties. He should snap back against lefties with the shoulder healed; I'm expecting 30 home runs.

He backs up plays, doesn’t give up on anything, and is reliable defensively; he'd be an above-average second baseman but he has no foot speed at all. He's a terrific bunter, great hit-and-run man, is consistent and gets on base. Best of all, he loves to play, and he runs out everything. He’s underrated because of his consistency, but to know him is to love him."