|
|
|
Friday, September 12, 2003
Tied up and gaggedI've been talking about far too much stuff that doesn't have anything to do with baseball over the last couple of days, this being "Aaron's BASEBALL Blog" and all. So, I think it's time to get back to the greatest game in the world..."Today's game is obviously huge. If Brad Radke can pitch like Johan Santana did last night, the Twins could leave Chicago with a series split and a tie for first-place. If he pitches more like Kyle Lohse and Carlos Pulido did in the first two games of the series, the Twins will leave down two games. Now, two games is certainly not insurmountable, especially with the remaining schedules, but if they can get out of Chicago tied for first, I think they are officially in the driver's seat."That's what I said yesterday, and Brad Radke went out and had a hell of a ballgame. Radke pitched a complete-game, striking out five while walking none and "scattering" nine hits. He really only made two mistakes the whole game - one to Frank Thomas in the first inning and one to Jose Valentin in the ninth. The Big Hurt has 40 homers this season and 416 in his career, so that's not such a shocker, and the dinger he served up to Valentin came with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning and the Twins leading by four runs. Other than that, he was fantastic. It was a textbook Brad Radke-start, because he did what he does best - he hit all of his spots and kept the Chicago hitters off-balance with his awesome change-up the entire afternoon. Radke obviously showed a lot of heart, shutting down one of the hottest offenses in baseball in what was probably one of the most important games he has ever pitched, and the Twins as a whole really impressed me with the way they fought back after two tough losses to open the series. The standings in the AL Central now look like this... W L GBAnd just like that, after six months and 146 games, we're right back where we started. Except now, the Minnesota Twins are in command. Here are the remaining schedules: Minnesota ChicagoIf you take out the three games Minnesota and Chicago play against each other, that means the Twins have six games left against the Indians and seven games left against the Tigers, while the White Sox have seven left against the Royals and three each against the Red Sox and the Yankees. That's a huge difference in schedule difficulty, about as big as possible. The Tigers are the worst team in baseball and one of the worst teams of all-time, and the Indians are 63-82, which is good for the 3rd-worst record in the American League. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox have two of the three best records in the American League and the Royals are 74-71. I would have been happy leaving Chicago down two games, because I think the Twins will make up that many with the remaining schedules. Leaving Chicago tied is just an added bonus and the reason why I think the Minnesota Twins will win this division. Even if the Twins drop 2/3 to the White Sox next week, there is no reason why they can't go 10-3 against Detroit and Cleveland, to finish the year with 89 wins. In order to match that, the White Sox would have to take the 2/3 from Minnesota and then go 9-4 against Kansas City, Boston and New York. Quite frankly, that just isn't going to happen. Of course, the Twins have had a lot of trouble with the Indians this year and taking at least 1/3 from the White Sox is certainly not a given either. That said, if they play at anywhere close to the level they have played at during the second-half so far, they'll be in the playoffs for the second season in a row. Some late-breaking news... I chatted with Baseball Prospectus injury guru and radio superstar Will Carroll last night and he informed me that his sources have told him Eric Milton will be the Twins' starter on Sunday against Cleveland. He'll replace Carlos Pulido in the rotation, which is certainly fine with me. I really hope the Twins aren't rushing Milton back again, because having him healthy for next season is more important than whatever he can possibly do for the rest of this year. That said, letting him get his feet wet against the Indians (one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching) is a pretty good situation for him and, according to Will's sources, he will definitely be on some sort of a pitch-count and/or innings-count. Back to yesterday's game... I was incredibly impressed with Esteban Loaiza, even though he took the loss. He gave up four runs in seven innings, but also struck out nine, walked just one and was flat-out nasty for much of the game. He didn't get a lot of help from the homeplate umpire, which was too bad (for White Sox fans, at least), because he was painting the outside corner all game. I was very skeptical of Loaiza's early-season success, but I have now watched him pitch on at least eight or nine occasions this season and I have been extremely impressed each time. He is obviously not the same pitcher he was before this year. He velocity is up, his control, which was always pretty good, has been incredible, and he is now featuring one of the nastiest cut-fastballs in baseball. Here are his current numbers: GS IP ERA W L SO BB HR OAVGThat's just awesome. Cy Young-caliber numbers in any season. They become even more amazing when you consider that, coming into this season, Loaiza had the following career-totals: IP ERA W LFor his first eight seasons as a major league pitcher, Loaiza was essentially "average." He never had an ERA below 4.00, but he was usually somewhere around 4.50-5.00. He had a career record that was four games below .500 and a career ERA that was about 5% worse than league-average - all in over 1,200 major league innings. And then, all of sudden and at 31 years old, Esteban Loaiza is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Looking at his numbers this season, it is quite obvious which areas Loaiza's improvements have come in...ALL OF THEM! Pre-2003 2003Loaiza's control was always reasonably good, so there wasn't that much room for improvement there, although he certainly improved it significantly. In addition to the 22% drop in walks, his strikeout rate is up 47%, which is absolutely amazing for a guy whose previous career-best K rate was 6.19/9 IP in 2000. In fact, check out his year-by-year strikeout rates: Year SO/9That's amazing consistency. From 1996 to 2002 - a span of seven seasons - Loaiza's K rate was between 5.17 and 6.19, and it was between 5.17 and 5.76 in six of the seven years. And then BOOM, he's up to 8.02 Ks per game. The huge increase in strikeouts is a big factor in his success this year, but I think the biggest difference in Esteban Loaiza has been his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, after years of serving up long balls in bunches. Loaiza has allowed just 15 home runs in 204.2 innings pitched this season. Prior to this year, he allowed an average of 1.16 homers per nine innings, which works out about 27 per 204.2 innings. If you shave a dozen homers off a pitcher's season, you're going to see some serious improvements in ERA, even without better strikeout and walk rates. When you take away a dozen homers and add in a huge increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks...well, you end up 19-7 with a 2.73 ERA, I guess. I checked out Loaiza's ground ball/fly ball ratio, thinking maybe that told the story of how he is suddenly so stingy with homers, but it doesn't. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.45, which is fairly ground ball dominant, but he's always been pretty much that same way. His career GB/FB ratio before this season was 1.41. I think the biggest reasons for his success is his incredible control and especially the cut-fastball that he seems to have mastered this year. The control allows him to hit "his spots" more often, which keeps the ball away from the fat part of the bat, and his cutter does the same thing, avoiding the "sweet-spot" of bats by slicing in or darting away. Just ask the Twins, who must have swung through or fouled off at least a couple dozen of Loaiza's cutters yesterday. I'd have to do a little more number-crunching to say for sure, but I think at this point, Esteban Loaiza has been the best pitcher in baseball this season - in the top 2-3 for sure. And there isn't a sane person in this entire world who would ever have guessed that before this season, which is, of course, the beautiful thing about baseball. This Week's Featured Links: Monday: ChiSox Daily Tuesday: Football Outsiders Wednesday: Kevin Millar sings "Born in the U.S.A" Thursday: The Minnesota Daily Today's picks: Cincinnati (Etherton) +220 over Chicago (Wood) Minnesota (Rogers) -100 over Cleveland (Sabathia) Texas (Drese) +165 over Oakland (Zito) Total to date: + 3,185 W/L record: 234-228 (0-1 yesterday for -110.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, September 11, 2003
See that fire on the bridge over there?Okay, so about a month ago I applied for a position at the Minnesota Daily and then interviewed for said position. After the interview, I never heard back from them. Then yesterday, I wrote about the experience on this website, saying in part:"It's now a month later and I haven't heard back from the Sports Editor at all. I tried to contact him a couple of times and never got a response. So, at this point, I think it's obvious that he either died or I didn't get the job. I am obviously more than a little disappointed that I didn't get the gig, this being the FOURTH TIME that I have applied for it in the last 2+ years and all, and it is also a little strange that the guy never even got back to me, even just to say "thanks for applying, but we chose someone else."Well, guess what? I got an email from the Minnesota Daily yesterday afternoon. Some kind of coincidence, huh? Yeah, right. Here's what it said: Dear Applicant:That's right, after all of this, they sent me a form-letter. Of course, they didn't have the decency to inform me of their decision for an entire month and I suspect if I hadn't written about the issue yesterday I would never have heard back from them at all. So, obviously someone over at the Daily reads this website, or at least read it yesterday. Yet, even after that person read what I wrote yesterday, they still didn't have the decency to call me or even send me a personalized email. It is really is quite incredible in my opinion. 1) That they would interview me and then not even get back to me...ever. 2) That someone over there reads this website on what is obviously a regular basis, and yet they still didn't hire me for what is essentially an entry-level position in the Sports Department. 3) Even when they read on this website that I am upset and confused as to how this whole situation has unfolded, they didn't give me a call or send me a quick email. They sent me a form-letter, the sort of thing they should have sent me about a month ago. I'm obviously burning some bridges by writing this, but really, who cares? I think it is quite clear that getting a job writing for the Minnesota Daily is not going to happen for me at any point, ever, regardless of what I do. Plus, they in no way treated me with any sort of respect, so why should I treat them with any? I read the Minnesota Daily everyday and I think it is a really good newspaper. That is why, ever since I came to school here in the fall of 2001, I have wanted to write for them. It is also why I tried on four separate occasions to join the staff, going on two interviews with two different Sports Editors and being told on one other occasion that I was "one of the final five candidates." And now, here I sit, having been blown off four times by my college newspaper. No one likes being blown off any time, but this particular time really pisses me off. If you aren't going to hire me, tell me so, don't leave me twisting in the wind for a month. And if you are going to just completely disrespect me by not even having the courtesy to inform me of your decision not to hire me, don't send me some bullshit form letter a month later, after I made a big stink about it on a website that someone who works there obviously reads. I don't get it, I really don't. I don't think I have ever been this confused about something in my entire life. It is almost comical really. Here I am, a student at the University of Minnesota, majoring in Journalism. I have my own website where I write a new article about sports every single day of the week, for what is now a fairly substantial audience, and I also write for other websites, with even larger audiences. I even wrote for my high school newspaper and was the Sports Editor there as well. And yet I can't even get hired at my college newspaper, not even for an internship position - FOUR TIMES! It's unbelievable. Enough with the bad news... It's a bird, it's a plane, it's...SUPER JOHAN!
Okay, so Johan Santana only pitched 6 1/3 innings against the White Sox last night, but still... IP H R BB SO HRCertainly not extraordinary, but considering Minnesota starters gave up 8 runs in 9 innings during the first two games of the Chicago series (both losses), it's pretty damn good. After Johan left in the middle of the 7th inning, Latroy Hawkins came in and did a fantastic job bridging the gap to Eddie Guardado, who, for once, got a save without even making things "interesting." After two depressing losses to the White Sox, the Twins finally got some good pitching last night and took Game Three of the series. The AL Central standings now look like this... W L GBToday's game (1 PM, WGN) is obviously huge. If Brad Radke can pitch like Johan Santana did last night, the Twins could leave Chicago with a series split and a tie for first-place. If he pitches more like Kyle Lohse and Carlos Pulido did in the first two games of the series, the Twins will leave down two games. Now, two games is certainly not insurmountable, especially with the remaining schedules, but if they can get out of Chicago tied for first, I think they are officially in the driver's seat. Link of the Day: The Minnesota Daily - "An Independent Student Newspaper of the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities" Today's picks: Pittsburgh (D'Amico) -110 over Cincinnati (Serafini) Total to date: + 3,295 W/L record: 234-227 (1-1 yesterday to break even and still above 3,000.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, September 10, 2003
A little of this, a little of thatNo one topic jumps out at me for today, so I figured I'd touch on a few things...First of all, for those of you who have emailed me wondering how I did in week one of the "Football Picks" contest that I am in, you don't have to email me to find out (although I certainly don't mind). Just head over to SethSpeaks.net, which is the site that is running the entire contest. If you go to the "Football Picks Page" you can get updates on how everyone did last week, what everyone's picks are for the current week and the official standings. I think I did "okay" for the first week. I finished 10-6, which tied me for 4th place among the 9 "experts." I was at 10-4 and looking good after Sunday afternoon's games, but then I dropped the Sunday night game and the Monday night game. I am hoping once I get a chance to see a few more teams play and also get a chance to study some team stats and all that, I will start to do a little better. As always, I will keep you updated (so you don't have to email me about it...unless you really want to, of course). Speaking of emails... Remember last month, when I wrote that entry about Twins uber-prospect Joe Mauer? It generated quite a bit of email response, and I had a back-and-forth email exchange with a loyal reader named "Mike," who is not quite as high on Joe Mauer as I am. Mike is a big fan of Toronto catching prospect Guillermo Quiroz and Yankees catching prospect Dioner Navarro. I am not quite as high on either of them (although I really like Quiroz quite a bit), and I told Mike that I thought Anaheim catching prospect Jeff Mathis was my pick for the second-best catching prospect in baseball right now, behind Mauer. Mike responded with an interesting proposal: "I suggest a friendly wager. I'll take Guillermo Quiroz and Dioner Navarro, you can have Joe Mauer and Jeff Mathis. The measuring stick will be total Runs Created for the years 2005-2008. If I win, you'll buy two top-priced tickets for me for a Blue Jay game in Toronto against the Twins in 2009 (if you come to Toronto for the game, you're welcome to join me). If you win, I'll buy two top-priced tickets for a Twins game for you in Minnesota against the Jays in 2009.First of all, I love bets like this. Actually, what am I saying, I love all bets. I think that if I ever get really rich and have a ton of expendable income, I could definitely see myself becoming addicted to gambling. It's just my personality, I am willing to bet on literally anything. And there is nothing more fun than betting on what is going to happen to a bunch of 20 year old baseball players in the years 2005-2008. I like Mauer and Mathis, he likes Quiroz and Navarro. The odds are pretty good that at least one of them will never be any good and probably 2 or 3 of them will be simply mediocre. But that's the beauty of prospects. So, I'm here to say that I accept Mike's wager. I'm also here to say that I think there is probably about a 0.000005% chance that either of us will remember that we actually made the bet by the time 2009 rolls around, but that's really beside the point, isn't it? I mean really, 2009? Do you realize I will be 26 years old in 2009?! Man, that is scary to even think about. I'm still worried that at some point in 2005 or 2006 my mom won't let me bring home my laundry for her to do once in a while, so I can't even begin to think about 2009! Staying with the emails... Over the last few weeks, I have received a tremendous amount of emails on one subject. You may remember last month I applied for a job at the Minnesota Daily and then interviewed for the job. I can't begin to tell you how many emails I have gotten from people over the last few weeks, wondering about what happened with that. It's touching really, that so many of you would care enough about that sort of thing to want to be updated on it. Anyway, let me just say that I am not trying to keep any secrets from my loyal audience, because that's not my style. I'll write about pretty much anything, as long as I think it's interesting enough for you to want to read. I haven't written about it because...well, nothing really happened. I applied for the job, I got a call to come in for an interview, I went to the interview and then...nothing. Literally nothing. It's now a month later and I haven't heard back from the Sports Editor at all. I tried to contact him a couple of times and never got a response. So, at this point, I think it's obvious that he either died or I didn't get the job. I am obviously more than a little disappointed that I didn't get the gig, this being the FOURTH TIME that I have applied for it in the last 2+ years and all, and it is also a little strange that the guy never even got back to me, even just to say "thanks for applying, but we chose someone else." To be honest, I'm not sure what the deal is. There were four positions open, including an internship - all of which I made it very clear I would love to fill. I gave some writing samples and the guy I interviewed with made sure to tell me that he frequented this blog and enjoyed reading it (which I took to be a great sign). And I don't think the interview went poorly. I could, of course, be way off-base and maybe I came across as a lunatic, but I actually think it went fairly well. So, basically, I am stumped. People keep telling me to keep applying, that "I need to be persistent" and "show that I really want the job." But that's the same thing I heard the other 3 times I applied. At some point, I think a time comes when one has to stop trying to get on their college newspaper. I'm not sure that getting turned down 4 times in a little over 2 years is that point, but it's definitely pretty damn close, and there is only so much rejection one person can take from the exact same source. I find it hard to believe that the other applicants for what was a very low-paying position covering volleyball and gymnastics and track-and-field for a college newspaper were so much more qualified than I am, so either I am a horrible interview or there is something else going on. Or maybe a whole bunch of incredibly smart and gifted journalists with tons of experience decided to apply for the sports internship at the Minnesota Daily at the same time I did, who knows. But hey, not getting that job gives me more time to devote to writing great blog entries for you all to enjoy, so that's good news, right? RIGHT?! Actually, now that you are stuck with me for a while and I am "stuck" writing about baseball and not men's water polo for $6 an hour, I wanted to bring up a couple of things I have been thinking about... 1) As many of you know, I am currently unemployed. The only real income that has come my way recently has been the various (and very generous) PayPal Donations that about two dozen of you decided to send me over the last two weeks or so. And, while the amount of those donations has been way past what my expectations were, they still aren't enough for me to tell my mom that this blog is my job and not have her reply with some pithy comment. So, what I was wondering was whether or not everyone here would be incredibly offended if I tried to get a few very small and unobtrusive advertisements on this website? I'm talking really small and subtle stuff. No flashing lights or sound effects, no pop-up ads, nothing like that. Just a couple of small text ads that could be on the left side of this page, or at the end of entries or something like that. What do you think? I am sort of against the idea myself, to be honest, but trying to transform this blog into a somewhat viable source of income seems like a worthwhile venture for me at this point. The second part of this question is, assuming you are not completely offended by the idea of a few small ads, that I have no idea how I would go about trying to get those advertisers. Recently BaseballPrimer.com and a few other websites that I frequent have signed up for a program called "Google AdSense," which basically places a few ads on your site and then pays you when people click on them. I applied to Google and was turned down, for reasons that I haven't quite figured out (sounds kind of like the Minnesota Daily thing again, huh?). It's not because I don't get enough traffic, because (and this is in no way meant to be a knock against Larry Mahnken or his site) I get more traffic than the "Replacement Level Yankees Weblog" gets and it recently was approved for Google Ads. And it's not because I was, until this week, hosted by Blogspot, because that is what Mahnken's site is hosted on. I asked Larry what he thought and he said that it's possible Google denied my application because of the PayPal Donations link I have up and/or because of the links to books on Amazon.com that I have had in the past. Apparently they don't like any competition, although I'm not sure how asking for donations from readers is the same as advertisements. Fortunately, I have a large group of loyal readers, many of whom are a lot smarter than I am, so I figure at least a few of you would have some suggestions for other ad programs that I could use or - and this would be ideal - maybe you are actually part of a business of some kind that would be interested in placing an ad on this site directly. That would be perfect, of course - I'd get a little cash, you'd get an ad placed in front of thousands of die-hard baseball fans every week, and I would feel a lot better about the situation knowing that the ad was for a place that employs a fan of this blog. And if it is a product or service that is somehow related to baseball, that would be even better. If you have any comments, suggestions, ideas, etc., please email me. 2) Another issue that I have been thinking about is the idea of using some "Guest Columns." In the 14 months that I have been doing this blog, I have posted a brand new article pretty much every single weekday, give or take a few times when I had a real excuse not to. And I have used a "guest column" just two times - once in June of 2003 and once in November of 2002. So, basically, it has been all me, all the time. And that's not a bad thing obviously. I mean, you guys apparently like to read my writing, which is why you come here every day. But, at the same time, I get emails all the time from people wondering if I would be interested in publishing something they have written. It has definitely always been something I am willing to consider. I could use a day off every once in a while and I am sure you could use a day away from me once in a while too. Plus, I guarantee there are some great ideas for articles in the heads of the people who read this blog. On the other hand, I don't want to just say "If you want to write something for this blog, email it to me," because then I will get a whole bunch of submissions and I may not like all of them. So, I was wondering if any of you had an idea for how I could integrate some guest columns into this blog, without simply getting an onslaught of submissions, which would lead to me turning lots of them down (and after the Minnesota Daily and the Google Ads, that's the last thing I want to be doing). One idea would be to have a contest. People send something in and I could get a few of my baseball blogging buddies together to judge the submissions. We could pick the top 5 and debut one each week or something? I think that would be pretty fun and wouldn't place all of the blame on me if someone's work got turned down! I really love the idea of giving someone an audience that they otherwise wouldn't get a chance to be in front of, whether that is a reader of this blog with an idea for something he has wanted to write about for a long time or a blogger who doesn't have as large an audience as I do and wants a chance to introduce himself and his writing to a couple thousand people. Anyway, it is an idea and something that I think can work, but I'm not quite sure what exactly the best way to do it is yet. Again, if you've got any suggestions, I'd love to hear them, so email me. Finally... While watching the Twins drop their second straight game to the White Sox last night, to fall behind 2 games in the division, I heard the following said by the two men who are paid money to provide insight on the television broadcast: Dick Bremer: Carl Everett is a switch-hitter, but he is batting left-handed now against a left-handed pitcher.I generally like Dick and Bert, but sometimes I wonder why people in their position are so afraid of even the most simple statistics. Maybe they have a scouting report on Everett? Maybe they know about an injury? I've never seen a scouting report in my life and the only way I would know about an injury is if I read about it on ESPN.com, but I am also fully aware of the difference between Carl Everett hitting left-handed and Carl Everett hitting right-handed. 2003 2000-2002If the Twins need a scouting report or some inside information on an injury to tell them that Carl Everett hits better left-handed than he does right-handed, they have some serious problems. Link of the Day: Kevin Millar sings "Born in the U.S.A" Without a doubt, one of the funniest things I have ever seen. Apparently, Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar recorded a video of himself lip-synching (and "dancing") to Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the U.S.A" back in 1989, when he was 18 years old. Someone dug up the video (which I am sure Millar is real happy about) and it is now Boston's version of the Rally Monkey. There are just so many funny things about the video that you simply need to watch it. Today's picks: Minnesota (Santana) -115 over Chicago (Garland) Cleveland (Sabathia) +120 over Kansas City (Anderson) Total to date: + 3,295 W/L record: 233-226 (4-1 yesterday for +370, including picking a 20 year old making his MLB debut to beat Randy Johnson. And look at that, I'm over the 3,000 mark!) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, September 09, 2003
And on the second day, Aaron talked about...Hmmm, I dunno. How about Andruw Jones?To me, Andruw Jones is one of the most interesting players in baseball. First of all, he is tremendously talented, perhaps one of the 5 or 10 most physically gifted players in the world. Second, whenever I watch him play, I get the feeling that he is straddling the line between "the game looks so easy for him" and "he is a lazy player." I'm not quite sure which category he actually falls into, but his play on the field has been so good that it probably doesn't even matter. Another reason why he is interesting is that his year-to-year performances vary wildly and are incredibly unpredictable. It's not so much that his overall offensive production changes from year-to-year, because that happens to many players, it is that the way he arrives at his season-total is different every season. Andruw Jones has been an everyday player in the major leagues for 7 seasons now. Here are his year-by-year batting averages: Year AVGHe came into the league at 19 years old and was playing everyday but hitting just .231 at age 20. Then he posted batting averages of .271 and .275 in his age 22 and 23 seasons. So, at that point, you think okay, the guy is a .270-.280 hitter. Then he busts out in 2000 and hits .303 at the age of 24. You think wow, he's taken that big step, now he's a .300 hitter. Then he hits .251 the next year and follows that up with .264 in 2002. And now, this season, he's back to .274. The only pattern I can see is similar to a guy climbing up a flight up stairs, falling all the way down, and then starting to climb back up again, which is an interesting pattern for a young baseball player's batting average, to say the least. Another part of Jones' game that fluctuates is his walk rate. Check out his non-intentional walks per 600 plate appearances each season: Year BB/600Those walk rates are all over the place. How many guys walk significantly more often at the age of 20, in their first full major league season, than they do at 21, 22, 23 and 24? Jones drew 54 non-intentional walks in just 467 plate appearances as a 20 year old in 1997 and then drew a grand-total of 32 in 631 plate appearances the next year. Then he bumped his walk rate up in 1999, only to see it drop way down again in 2000 and 2001. Last season, he posted his first walk rate that was better than the one from his rookie season, walking 79 (non-intentional) times in 659 plate appearances. And just when you thought that, at age 25, he was starting to learn some plate discipline, his walk rate this season is down about 30% from last year and back at his 2000/2001 levels. One of the only real "normal" patterns for Andruw Jones offensively has been home run power. Here are Andruw's home runs per 500 at bats for each season: Year HR/500The batting average may go up and down dramatically and the plate discipline may appear and then disappear for seasons at a time, but Andruw is pretty consistant when it comes to hitting 'em out of the park. Aside from the "off" year in 1999 (when he hit just 26 homers in 592 at bats), he is showing a fairly steady rise in home run power and he is just 4 homers away from establishing a career-high this season. Another way to look at someone's power is to check out their "Isolated Slugging Percentage." That number is simply their slugging percentage minus their batting average. So if a guy slugs .500 and bats .250, his Isolated Slugging Percentage would be .250. It's essentially separating someone's "raw power" from their ability to get base-hits. Here are Andruw's "ISO" totals: Year ISOAgain, pretty constant, and certainly much more stable and predictable than his batting averages and walk rates. From 1998 through this season, Andruw has had an ISO between .208 and .249, including 4 of the 6 seasons between .234 and .249. Another interesting and volatile aspect of Andruw Jones' hitting is that he seems to go through one extended period each season where he is absolutely lost at the plate. And typically, it occurs late in the season. Take this year for example. Andruw's batting averages in the first 4 months of the season were: .281, .307, .275 and .308. On August 1st, he was hitting .295/.365/.541. Then he hit just .190 with a .227 on-base percentage in August and currently down to .274/.338/.508 - having lost 21 points of AVG, 27 points of OBP and 33 points of SLG in just over a month. Last season was very similar. He hit .262, .276 and .278 in the first 3 months of the year and was at .275/.379/.518 heading into July. Then he hit .180 in July, dropping his season-totals all the way down to .251/.362/.483, before an incredible (.359/.405/.769) month of September brought his final numbers back up a little bit. Back in 2001, the pattern was similar, but the period of "suckiness" was more prolonged. Jones hit .290, .280 and .268 in the first 3 months and was at .282/.338/.508 on July 1st. Then he hit .200 in July and .202 in August, at which point his season-totals were down to just .248/.310/.449. He finished at .251/.312/.461 for his worst offensive season since his rookie year. Even in his best season as a hitter, 2000, when he hit .303 for the year and drove in 104 runs, Jones had a fairly long stretch where he struggled. Andruw hit .295/.394/.545 in April, .340/.456/.641 in June and .322/.365/.551 in May - at which point his season-totals were an amazing .320/.407/.580. It was looking like his official "breakout season" was coming at the age of 23 and he appeared headed for serious MVP consideration. Then Andruw hit just .262 with a .302 on-base percentage in July. Overall, he hit .312 with a .392 OBP and a .566 SLG in the first-half of the year and "only" .292/.335/.513 in the second-half. I have Andruw Jones on one of my Diamond-Mind keeper league teams now, so I have paid closer attention to him more this season than I have in the past. I have to say that how he has looked at the plate during this season's prolonged slump certainly matches the bad numbers he put up. During the last month or so, Jones seems to have lost any and all ability to control the strike zone and he has resorted to flailing away at pitches that he thinks he can hit out of the park. He's done fairly well in the power department (8 homers in August), but he has walked just 7 times while striking out 27 times since the end of July. I know Andruw has had some lingering injury problems this season, specifically a muscle-pull in his rib-cage, and that would certainly explain his new "approach" (or lack thereof) at the plate during the last month or so. Of course, it doesn't do much to explain his slumps during the previous few seasons. At just 26 years old, Andruw Jones already has over 200 career homers, 1,000 career hits and appears set to win his 6th straight NL Gold-Glove award. Yet I can't help but see what he has done thus far as somewhat disappointing. I keep waiting for him to have that incredible, breakout season, to make (with apologies to Bill Simmons) "The Leap" into superstardom. And he always seems to be on the verge of doing that, yet he never quite gets there. Of course, he's still just 26 years old and if you can call what he's done so far in his career disappointing...well, that gives you an idea of exactly how talented he is. Link of the Day: Football Outsiders - "Tackling football from outside the hashmarks" I just became aware of "Football Outsiders" and I am hooked. It is the closest thing to a Baseball Prospectus/Baseball Primer type of site for another sport. They have their own custom stats, adjusted for context and level of competition, etc., and they also have a ton of very good articles. If you are a sabermetrically inclined baseball fan (and if you are reading this right now, it's pretty likely) and you also enjoy the NFL, Football Outsiders is a must-see. Today's picks: Chicago (Zambrano) -130 over Montreal (Day) Florida (Pavano) -120 over New York (Glavine) Los Angeles (Jackson) +180 over Arizona (Jackson) Toronto (Lidle) -110 over Tampa Bay (Waechter) Chicago (Buehrle) -160 over Minnesota (Pulido) Total to date: + 2,925 W/L record: 229-225 (1-1 yesterday to break even for the day.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, September 08, 2003
Welcome to AaronGleeman.com!Well, if you are reading this, I guess that means you found your way from the old website (www.baseballblog.blogspot.com) to the new and improved home of Aaron's Baseball Blog...www.AaronGleeman.comIf nothing is different, why exactly did I switch websites? Good question, I'm glad you asked! For one thing, AaronGleeman.com is a whole lot easier to remember than www.baseballblog.blogspot.com. That may not seem like such a big deal, but a lot of the visitors to this blog definitely come here by way of word-of-mouth and the easier the address is to remember, the better. Plus, I've got to admit, it is sort of cool (albeit slightly nerdy) to say I have my own dot-com. Along with that, moving from a website hosted on Blogspot to a website hosted on a private server means a lot of the problems that have happened with the blog, particularly periods where the website is "down," will not be happening any longer. It seemed like about once a week there would be a point where the blog simply couldn't be accessed, because the Blogspot servers were experiencing trouble. Obviously that is a risk with any server and any website, but I'm hoping it is less of an issue with this new setup. As of right now, those are the two main advantages to this move, but moving to my own website also gives me a lot of flexibility in the future, if I happen to come up with any brilliant ideas for things to add. Which reminds me, if you have any suggestions for new things I could add to this site, I would love to hear them. I am always interested in tinkering with things to make coming to this blog more fun and interesting, and I am sure you guys have a lot better ideas (and a lot more ideas) than I do. If you have this blog "bookmarked" (or "favorite placed" or whatever your brower calls it), you will probably want to change the address to www.AaronGleeman.com. Also, if you are the owner of a website that has a link to this blog, I would really appreciate it if you would make the switch so that the link points here, instead of the old address. Other than that, it is business as usual. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy my thoughts on baseball... I thought about what I wanted to discuss in today's entry and I decided there was no way I could christen AaronGleeman.com with anything other than a Twins-related entry. It's been an up and down season for the Twins and at various points in the year I was ready to completely write them off. To their credit, they have turned things around at just the right time and are now heading into the stretch-run in a very good position to win the American League Central. Here is what the standings in the AL Central look like in this morning's paper: W L Win% GBI put the Twins on top because...well, it's my website and I'll do what I want. And I left the Royals (73-69 and 3 games back) out of the picture because I think that is exactly where they are right now - out of the picture. The Twins and White Sox have the two best records in the American League since the All-Star break, so the division probably isn't quite as weak as it first appears. The Twins are 32-17 in the second-half and the White Sox are 31-17. Minnesota has won 5 in a row and 13 of their last 18. Chicago has won 3 in a row and 13 of their last 18. And now, the two teams will meet, starting tonight, for a 4-game series in Chicago. Pretty exciting, huh? You may remember my entry from August 22nd ("And down the stretch they come!"), where I broke down the remaining schedules for the AL Central contenders. In case you forgot, the Twins finish with an incredibly easy stretch of games over the season's final two weeks, while the White Sox schedule is much more difficult. Because of that, I suggested that if the Twins could hang around within striking-distance through mid-September, they would be able to overtake Chicago in the final 10 games and win the division. Well, not only have the Twins been able to "hang around," they are tied with the White Sox, with 20 games left to play. The two teams will meet 7 times over the next 11 days and I think the key to Minnesota's season and their division title hopes is that they are able to lose no more than 4 of those 7 games. Obviously winning the majority of the 7 games is ideal, but even winning just 3 of the 7 puts Minnesota is a very good position heading into the final two weeks of the season. Minnesota finishes the season with 7 games against Detroit (37-105) and 2 games against Cleveland (62-82), while the White Sox end the year with 7 games against Kansas City (73-69) and 4 against the New York Yankees (85-56). If the Twins can manage to take at least 3 of these 7 upcoming meetings with the White Sox, they should be able to pick up enough games to sneak by Chicago for good at some point. Of course, anything can happen in 20 games and a large part of the Twins' season is counting on the Royals playing like they have for much of the year (so they can knock off Chicago), which isn't exactly something I am willing to bet on. In looking at the White Sox and Twins, it is interesting how their reputations and their actual performances this season are completely different. The Twins are known as a team that relies on "pitching and defense," while the White Sox are the sluggers, bashing their opponents into submission. Yet, the Twins have actually outscored Chicago 700-688 this season and the White Sox have allowed 57 fewer runs than the Twins (683-625). As much as this pains me to admit this, I truly believe the Chicago White Sox are a better team than the Twins. If these two teams were playing like they are right now and there were 60 games left in the season, I would pick the White Sox to win this division in a heartbeat. But there are only 20 games left and the remaining schedules play a huge factor, even off-setting one team being better than the other - at least in my mind. Here's the scary thing about Chicago, and the reason why I am glad we are nearing the end of the year: Chicago OffenseActually, it looks like maybe their reputation for being such a slugging team is well-deserved after all. The White Sox rank 1st in the AL in batting average, slugging percentage and runs scored in the second-half, which is the reason for their dramatic turnaround. In fact, there pitching-staff has actually been slightly worse after the All-Star break, with a 4.33 ERA, compared to 4.08 before the break. Minnesota's second-half success has been fairly split between hitting and pitching improvements. The Twins have scored about 16% more runs per game in the second-half, while allowing 15% fewer runs. The way the White Sox are hitting right now, I'm not so sure the Twins can beat them head-to-head, but I'm hoping the Royals and Yankees can give us a hand. Let the games begin! Link of the Day: ChiSox Daily - "Notes about the White Sox and Chicago Sports" Today's picks: Chicago (Colon) -150 over Minnesota (Lohse) Toronto (Escobar) +175 over New York (Mussina) Total to date: + 2,925 W/L record: 228-224 (3-1 on Friday for +260 and I can smell 3,000.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
|
E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com 
www.myspace.com/aarongleeman Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Fat-O-Meter First Time: 92.5 pounds This Time: Still fat Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Stick and Ball Guy Seth Stohs Nick Nelson Will Young Over The Baggy Howard Sinker Twinkie Town John Bonnes Phil Miller Jim Mandelaro Twins Territory Mike Decaire Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Dead Spin The Big Lead AOL Fanhouse The Hardball Times Baseball Prospectus Baseball Think Factory Baseball America U.S.S. Mariner Baseball Toaster Baseball Musings Minor League Ball Al's Ramblings 6-4-2 Bill Simmons Fire Joe Morgan Shyster Ball Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Gregg Rosenthal MLB Trade Rumors Sports By Brooks MMA Mania Five Ounces of Pain Fan Graphs Non-Sports Stuff Gorilla Mask WWTDD? Buzz Machine Alan Sepinwall Egotastic A Socialite's Life Popoholic Hollywood Rag Splash News Online Hollywood Tuna IDLYITW The Superficial TMZ.com Perez Hilton Steve Silver Tony Pierce Wicked Chops Poker Shelley Rants Away Poker Road Film Drunk Guinness and Poker Tao of Poker Site Sponsors Chicago Cubs Merchandise Purchase MLB baseball tickets, New York Yankees tickets, Boston Red Sox tickets, Chicago Cubs tickets and San Francisco Giants tickets from Neco.com.   ![[Powered by Blogger]](http://buttons.blogger.com/bloggerbutton1.gif){kind=small}
 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert |