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Friday, December 05, 2003
Sacrificing OBP JesusIn yesterday's entry I talked about the Twins trading Eric Milton and his $9 million-dollar salary for 2004 to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Twins got a couple of marginally useful players and a PTBNL, but the deal was, for all intents and purposes, a straight salary dump.Yesterday afternoon, the Montreal Expos made a very similar trade with the Yankees, "dumping" Javier Vazquez and his salary for next season (projected to be about $10 million) on New York. Like with Milton and the Twins, the Expos made the move because of their payroll limitations. The biggest difference between the two trades is obvious, which is that Javier Vazquez is simply a better pitcher than Eric Milton. Beyond that, Vazquez is a pitcher who is coming off an extremely good 2003 season, whereas Milton spent almost the entire year on the disabled-list. Those differences explain why the Twins got two roster-fillers and a PTBNL, while the Expos received one of the most promising young hitters in all of baseball, as well as another fairly valuable young hitter. Before we get to those guys, let's talk about the guy the Yankees got... JAVIER VAZQUEZNow, that's a pitcher. Vazquez has been a workhorse for Montreal over the last four years, pitching a total of 902.1 innings during that span, including 461 innings over the last two years. He has also been solidly above-average in all four seasons, including two years (2001 and 2003) when he was flat-out dominant. I included his GPA against, because I think it's an interesting way to look at pitchers that goes beyond simple run-prevention. Vazquez had incredible GPA against totals in 2001 and 2003, and simply very good ones in 2000 and 2002. The guy is young, he is good, he is durable and his style fits the Yankees pretty well. Vazquez is a high strikeout pitcher, which means he allows less balls to be put in play against him than most. That's a good skill for a pitcher on the Yankees to possess because, despite all of their moves so far this off-season, their defense is still significantly below par. In addition to getting a lot of outs without relying on the defense, Vazquez is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, which means the outs he is relying on his defense to get for him are primarily coming from outfielders. Now, Bernie Williams has lost about 20 steps in the center field over the last few years and Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield are no great shakes in the corners, but I'll take my chances asking those three to get me my outs over the Yankees' infield (which, along with the problems up the middle, now includes Jason Giambi and his bad knee at first base, at least for the time being). Vazquez's only real weakness is his propensity for giving up a fair number of homers - 24, 24, 28 and 28 over the last four seasons. Giving up a homer every nine innings or so isn't getting into Jose Lima-territory or anything, but if you are looking for a chink in Vazquez's armor, that's probably your best bet. Other than that, he looks just about perfect. Young, durable, good strikeout-rates, good walk-rates - he's the real deal. Like Jose Vidro and, to a certain extent, Vladimir Guerrero, Javier Vazquez has played in relative obscurity over the last several years in Montreal. I expect him to have an excellent season for the Yankees and, with the help of their incredible offense and the massive increase in media attention he will receive, I think it's pretty likely that Javier Vazquez is going to be a household-name a year from now. He'll be hurt by the defense, but not as much as a lot of pitchers would be, and that lineup will score him runs in bunches. He's my early darkhorse Cy Young candidate for next year in the AL. In order to get their hands on Vazquez, the Yankees had to give up quite a bit. The package they gave Montreal isn't even in the same universe as the one the Twins got for Milton and it's significantly better than what the Red Sox sent to Arizona for Curt Schilling. The centerpiece of the package is Nick Johnson, whom I believe has one of the highest offensive upsides of any player in baseball right now. NICK JOHNSONAs is the case with many "high-ceiling" players, Johnson also comes with a major question-mark. He has had way more than his fair share of injuries in his pro career. While in the minors, he missed all of the 2000 season with a wrist injury and he played in just 129 games for the Yankees in 2002 (wrist) and only 96 games last season (broken hand). If you can look past him not being on the field all that often, Johnson looks like a future superstar. After hitting just .243 in his rookie season, he boosted his average up to .284 last season. He also has a career Triple-A batting average of .304 in 248 games. He hasn't shown huge power in the minors or the majors as of yet, but he did hit 14 homers and 19 doubles in just 324 at bats last year for a .472 slugging percentage, which is damn good for a 24-year old. His GPA of .308 ranked seventh among major league first basemen and DHs last season. Johnson may never hit .330 or smack 50 homers, but he has the potential to be an offensive-machine, thanks to his absolutely incredible plate discipline. Before his wrist-injury, Johnson had a season that would make any sabermetrically-inclined baseball fan drool, posting a .528 on-base percentage in Triple-A at the tender age of 20. He walked 123 times in 132 games that season. Then, after missing all of 2000, Johnson came back in 2001 and posted a .407 OBP at Triple-A, despite hitting just .256. In his first full-season with the Yankees, Johnson walked just 48 times in 129 games and had an uncharacteristically bad strikeout/walk ratio of 98/48. Johnson bounced back in a big way in 2003, walking 70 times in 96 games, compared to just 57 strikeouts. At 24 years old, Johnson had a .422 on-base percentage in 406 plate appearances. Here is the complete list of players since 1990 who have posted an on-base percentage of at least .420 in a season with 400+ plate appearances by the age of 24: YEAR AGE OBPThat's a hell of a list. With company like that, it's no wonder Johnson's nickname (at least among guys like me) is "OBP Jesus." I think there is a very good chance that Nick Johnson will one of the top 5-10 hitters in all of baseball over the next decade or so. He has the potential to be a .300-hitter with good, developing power, and he should consistently draw 100+ walks a year. The only thing that will keep him from becoming that player is injuries. Whether or not you think breaking a hand should be more evidence that a player is "injury prone," the fact is that Johnson has missed huge chunks of time in two of the last four seasons and has had two other years in which his performance was down significantly, perhaps because of injuries. Will he be able to stay healthy? Who knows, your guess is as good as mine. I sometimes wonder if the ability to stay healthy is a skill, just like Johnson's incredible ability to draw walks and get on base. If it is a skill, Johnson and the Expos are no doubt hoping that it is one that can be learned. In addition to Johnson, the Expos also got another young hitter who has a chance to be a nice player. Juan Rivera has spent parts of the last two years with the Yankees, hitting .262/.302/.427 in 280 total plate appearances. Rivera is older than Johnson and his offensive potential isn't even in the same ballpark, but he still has a chance to be a productive corner outfielder for Montreal. Check out his minor league numbers: JUAN RIVERAHe doesn't walk much, but he has shown the ability to hit for very high batting averages and he also has some good power. I could definitely see him putting together a few .290/.340/.450 seasons in Montreal. The Expos, once again, found themselves in a very tough position. One in which they were forced to trade away one of their best players, right in the middle of his prime. To Omar Minaya's credit, he worked a deal with the Yankees that gets Montreal two legitimate young hitters who can be plugged into the everyday lineup immediately. Johnson should be their everyday first baseman until he gets too expensive to keep in a few years, and Rivera will likely take over for Vladimir Guerrero in right field. Javier Vazquez is going to be great for the Yankees, but if Nick Johnson can stay healthy (and that is a massive, Mo Vaughn-sized "if"), this deal will work out very well for the Expos, particularly considering the circumstances. For the Yankees, they may be kicking themselves a few years from now if Johnson turns into the offensive-machine he is capable of becoming. That said, even if that happens, they'll still be the Yankees, which means they'll have no problem building an offense that scores tons of runs. With reagard to Rivera, he became completely expendable with Gary Sheffield coming to the Yankees. I would guess that Johnson leaving means that the Yankees will move Bernie Williams to DH and get themselves a new center fielder, either through trade (Carlos Beltran?) or free agency (Mike Cameron, Kenny Lofton). With the improvement Sheffield should provide over the production their right fielders gave them last year, their offense won't be any worse off without Johnson. Their defense on the other hand, with Jason Giambi playing first base everyday and Mr. Clutch and Alfonso Soriano playing up the middle...well, it could get ugly when Vazquez isn't striking people out. All in all, this is a good trade for both teams. That's it for this week, thanks for stopping by. If you missed any of the entries from earlier in the week, here they are: Monday: Not So Gleeman-Length Thoughts Tuesday: Coming to America Wednesday: Quality versus quantity Thursday: Don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way out Also, there's a new website/blog that I suggest you all check out. It's written by Mark McClusky, formerly of Sports Illustrated and EA Sports and Salon and all sorts of other cool places that I would love to work for someday. He's already got a bunch of good stuff up, so go check it out... McClusky.com Tell him I sent ya... *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, December 04, 2003
Don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way outA.J. Pierzynski? Gone.Latroy Hawkins? Gone. Eric Milton? Gone. Jacque Jones? Gone (I think). A few weeks ago, in their first significant move of the off-season, the Minnesota Twins traded their starting catcher for the past three years, A.J. Pierzynski, to the San Francisco Giants. In my entry about the trade, I said the following: "I have a feeling this Pierzynski-trade is just the start of what is going to be a pretty busy off-season for the Twins.Since then, Latroy Hawkins signed a three-year deal with the Cubs Tuesday night and, yesterday, the Twins traded Eric Milton to the Phillies for Nick Punto, Carlos Silva and a Player to be Named Later. I'm also hearing strong rumors that Jacque Jones will be the next to go, possibly very soon. Such is the life of a small-market team. Milton, Hawkins, Pierzynski and Jones have played in parts of 26 total seasons in the major leagues, every single one of them for the Minnesota Twins. They are also all still right in the middle of their "prime" years and, aside from Milton, none of them are exceptionally expensive. Yet, the Twins' budget did not have room for all of them, particularly not with Terry Ryan still being interested in bringing back Eddie Guardado and/or Shannon Stewart. Strictly based on talent, these are bad moves. Eric Milton, A.J. Pierzynski, Latroy Hawkins and Jacque Jones are all good, established, veteran major league players. The players and draft picks the Twins are going to end up with in exchange for losing those four is not going to be equal value. The problem is that a team like the Twins, with a projected payroll of around $56 million next year, cannot make decisions based solely on talent. Eric Milton is a good pitcher. He has a career record of 57-51 and his career ERA, adjusted to ballpark and league, has been about 1% better than league-average. At the same time, his lowest ERA in his five full-seasons is 4.32, he missed almost the entire 2003 season with a serious knee injury and he is set to make $9 million next season. There are a lot of teams out there who are in a position where they can afford to pay $9 million for a slightly above-average pitcher with a knee problem. The Twins, for whom $9 million would take up about 16% of their projected payroll, are not one of those teams. I suspect a lot of Twins fans will be saying stuff like "that's all we got for Milton?!" over the next few days. The fact is that simply not having Milton will give the Twins $9 million to play with this off-season and that in itself has a lot of value. I suspect Terry Ryan would have been willing to unload Milton's contract for nothing, if that's what the market for him was down to. Getting a utility infielder, a decent middle-reliever and a PTBNL for him is just an added bonus. For all those who think the sky is falling because they are going to have to be without Milton next year, I would like to point out that Eric Milton pitched exactly 17 innings for the Twins in 2003. They can certainly win without him, and having that $9 million to spend elsewhere is going to help quite a bit. Part of that $9 million will likely be used to re-sign Eddie Guardado and whatever is left over may also be spent on trying to bring back Shannon Stewart, who would become the starting left fielder (assuming Jacque Jones is traded). While I don't completely agree with all the moves Terry Ryan has made this off-season (I would have re-signed Hawkins over Guardado, for example), there is no doubt that he came up with a good plan of action for an off-season in which he was faced with a ton of difficult decisions. And, in the early going at least, it appears as though he has been able to execute the plan fairly well. If/when Jones leaves, he will be "replaced" as the left fielder by Stewart. Pierzynski was traded to San Francisco in part because of the need to shed some salary to possibly re-sign Stewart and Guardado. He will be replaced by Joe Mauer. In the trade for Pierzynski, the Twins acquired Joe Nathan, who will replace Latroy Hawkins as the right-handed setup-man. Eric Milton is sent to Philly, clearing $9 million for next year, which can be used to bring back Stewart and also Guardado. In the process, Ryan picks up a decent arm for the bullpen and a young utility infielder to replace Denny Hocking, another player who was let go because of money. The only real question in regard to who the "replacements" will be is who will be asked to step into Milton's spot in the rotation. But really, Milton didn't even have a spot in the rotation last season, so in that sense he doesn't even need to be replaced. I have a feeling that at no point in the last six months or so did Terry Ryan have a rotation in his head for 2004 that included Eric Milton in it. It is early in the off-season, we don't know for a fact that Jacque Jones is history, and the Twins could certainly still be waiting to make more moves. That said, right now the roster for next season should look something like this... LINEUP:Mauer will be a drop-off from the production Pierzynski provided for the last few years, I would almost be willing to guarantee that. And the outfield defense is no longer going to be great with Torii Hunter being flanked by Stewart and Michael Cuddyer. Aside from that, there is little reason why that group can't be just as good as the group from last season. Mientkiewicz, Rivas, Guzman, Koskie and Hunter are returning. LeCroy should be the everyday DH from the start of the season, as opposed to last year, when he took over the role later in the year. If they are able to sign Stewart, he will be around for the whole year instead of just 65 games. The biggest issues (aside from them having to actually re-sign Stewart yet) are going to be Cuddyer in right field and Mauer behind the plate. They're going to take a hit offensively with Mauer. With Cuddyer, I still think he has a chance to be a very good major league hitter, with an upside that looks similar to Tim Salmon. I honestly think that he simply needs to be given a chance to play everyday for more than a few weeks at a time, which is something the Twins have not allowed him to do yet. Of course, along with the strong Jacque Jones' rumors, I have also heard some rumblings that Mientkiewicz is being shopped. If he goes, Justin Morneau would likely take over at first base. Looking at that above lineup, the one thing I wonder about is whether or not Terry Ryan could have squeezed someone like Chase Utley out of the Phillies. Who knows, maybe he has his eye on a second baseman on one of these teams he has been talking about Jacque Jones with. One can only hope. ROTATION:That's not exactly set in stone beyond the top-three. Grant Balfour may or may not be given a shot as a starter. I really hope he is given the chance, because I think he will do a very good job. J.D. Durbin is my best guess for the final spot at the moment, although I have heard that they may sign veteran knuckleballer Steve Sparks, who could step into the rotation. As much as I'd love to watch a knuckleballer all year, the thought of Steve Sparks (4.88 ERA this year, 5.52 ERA in 2002) taking the hill every fifth day just doesn't do it for me. Another option is to put Carlos Silva into Juan Rincon's "second-righty" role in the bullpen, allowing Rincon to take a shot in the starting rotation. I think Rincon has the stuff to be a starter, but I'd rather see him in the bullpen. Since Milton barely pitched last year, essentially what they are replacing in the rotation is Kenny Rogers, Rick Reed and Joe Mays. Mays and Reed were both horrible last year, so replacing them and their combined ERA of 5.67 really shouldn't be all that difficult. Replacing Rogers will be tougher, because he had a pretty nice year, going 13-8 with a 4.57 ERA in 195 innings. Then there's still the possibility that Rogers could re-sign for another year, which would do a lot to solidify the rotation. The Twins will also get a full-year in the rotation from The Official Pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog, Johan Santana, who was their best starter last year, but only made 18 starts. 12-15 more starts from Johan will do a lot of nice things for the pitching-staff. BULLPEN:That's the core of the bullpen, assuming they re-sign Guardado. Essentially all they are doing is replacing Hawkins with Nathan. It's very likely Nathan will not pitch as well as Hawkins has over the last two seasons, simply because Hawkins has been incredible. Still, Nathan will do a good job setting up Guardado. Would I have rather the Twins been able to hold onto Hawkins, Milton, Jones and Pierzynski, while also re-signing Stewart and Guardado? Of course. With $55 million though, decisions had to be made and good players had to leave. I'd say, all things considered, Terry Ryan has done a very good job. If the team they put on the field next year resembles the one I just outlined above, there is absolutely no reason why they can't win their third-straight AL Central division championship. That's say a lot about the quality of the division, but it also says a lot about Minnesota's ability to fill major holes in the team, either through trades or the farm-system, all while working under a very tight budget. Of course, almost this entire entry assumes the Twins will, at some point in the near future, re-sign both Eddie Guardado and Shannon Stewart. If, for whatever reason, that doesn't happen, you can be sure I'll be changing my tune quite a bit. Finally... Just because this whole being a fan of a small-market team with a tiny payroll thing is sort of getting to me this week, I would like to present to you what the New York Yankees' bullpen might possibly look like in 2004 (along with approximate salaries): Mariano Rivera $10.9 millionJose Contreras may find himself in the starting rotation, depending on who else the Yankees sign this off-season, but you get the idea. Those seven guys will make a total of around $36.2 million next season. The entire Twins team is scheduled to make right around $56 million. But it's not like I'm bitter or anything. Oh what it must feel like to be a Yankees fan each off-season... *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, December 03, 2003
Quality versus quantityLast Wednesday, I talked about the Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi (and a PTBNL) swap that the Marlins and Cubs made. I think it is interesting to compare that deal to the one the Brewers just made with Diamondbacks, because the player Milwaukee gave up, Richie Sexson, is amazingly similar to Derrek Lee.Both Sexson and Lee are right-handed first basemen who are currently 28 years old. They also both had their best season in 2003. PA AVG OBP SLG EqAAbout as close as you can get in batting average and on-base percentage. Sexson had a significant edge in slugging percentage, but some of that is due to the ballparks they played in. Put all of it together and adjust for home ballparks and you get Sexson with a .308 Equivalent Average and Lee with a .307 EqA. Defensively, Lee is far better, enough to probably push him over the top in the comparison for 2003, despite the fact that Sexson had about 10% more plate appearances. As if that weren't similar enough for you, here is what they have done over the last three years combined: PA AVG OBP SLG EqAI'd say that those numbers, along with the fact they are both 28, both play first base and both hit right-handed is enough to make Sexson and Lee about as similar as two players can get. If I had my choice of either and the money was the same, I would go with Lee, just because of the defense he brings to the table. But they are extremely close. What is interesting is that both of these guys were trading recently, about a week apart, yet the packages their old teams received in exchange varied significantly. For Lee, the Marlins got one player, Hee Seop Choi, and a Player to be Named Later. For Sexson, the Brewers got six players - Lyle Overbay, Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano, Chad Moeller and Jorge De La Rosa. It is your basic "quality" versus "quantity" issue, I suppose. Hee Seop Choi is a more valuable commodity than any of the six players the Brewers got, but the Brewers did get a few valuable players. In fact, all things being equal, I would almost certainly take the package the Brewers got for their 28-year old right-handed hitting first baseman than the package the Marlins got for theirs. Of course, we are talking about the Brewers, which means all things are definitely not equal. The Brewers are not going to be a good team this season. Or next season. Or the year after that. Those are just the facts. Down the line however, I think they have a chance to put a good team on the field. They have quite a few very intriguing position-player prospects who should be arriving over the next 2-3 years. Until that time comes, they aren't going to be good. Because of that, I don't understand why they are interested in trading for guys like Craig Counsell or Junior Spivey. In fact, the only one of the six guys they got who is under 25 years old is Jorge De La Rosa. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that either a) they had to take Counsell and Spivey from Arizona to even out the salaries or b) they are planning to move Counsell and/or Spivey in another trade. And really, if they had to take on salary I don't understand that either, because they could certainly have found a decent deal for Sexson that didn't involve doing that. Of the six guys they got, only De La Rosa has a chance to be a major contributor when the Brewers have a shot at being decent again. I also think Lyle Overbay has a chance to be a good player for the next 4-5 years, but he plays first base, which means he will be pushed out of the way as soon as Prince Fielder, one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, is ready for the majors. De La Rosa is a nice prospect, but he's not worth trading Richie Sexson for. All of which makes me think that some of the guys the Diamondbacks just acquired will soon be on the move again. Craig Counsell seems to have a reputation around baseball as being some sort of a good player, despite the fact that he isn't one. He's also 33, has had injury problems of late and is set to make $3.15 million next year. Why any team would want him at that price is hard to figure out. Why the Milwaukee Brewers would want him at that price is impossible to answer. Junior Spivey seems like the most easily tradable guy in the bunch. He's 28, he plays a decent second base, he has a little pop in his bat and he'll make $2.4 million next year. He'd be a nice player for a lot of teams, but he's essentially useless to the Brewers for anything other than their quest for 70 wins next year. Chad Moeller is also not a bad player and could be valuable to a lot of teams. I actually heard a rumor last week that the A's were interested in him to help replace Ramon Hernandez behind the plate, so maybe Milwaukee plans to flip him as well. Basically, there are two ways this deal can go for the Brewers. In one scenario, they trade several of the veterans they picked up for Sexson, turning them into some young players who can actually help the team in the future. In the other scenario, they hold onto guys like Spivey and Counsell and Moeller, essentially trading their best player for a bunch of mediocre, relatively expensive veterans who will do absolutely nothing for them over the next several years, aside from help them fight for fifth place in the NL Central. Normally I would say that there is no way a team that is in a "rebuilding process" would trade someone the caliber of Richie Sexson and only get one good, young player in return. We are talking about the Brewers though, which means it's entirely possibly that they see Craig Counsell as the key to the franchise's turnaround. In addition to Overbay, at best, simply holding down the fort at first base until Prince Fielder arrives, the Brewers would also be blocking a perfectly good player at second base by holding on to Spivey. After Eric Young was dealt to the Giants, Keith Ginter took over as the everyday second baseman and finished the year hitting .257/.352/.427 in 415 plate appearances. He's not great and he's already 27, but Junior Spivey is 28 and barely an upgrade if he's an upgrade at all. Plus, Ginter is going to make about 15% of what Spivey will make next season. I will try to reserve judgment on the Sexson-trade until we find out for sure what the Brewers are planning to do with all the guys they got from Arizona. If they aren't planning to do anything with them, then I think this was a horrendous trade. All they would end up getting for one of the best hitters in baseball would be a 26-year old first baseman who plays the same position as one of their best prospects, two veteran middle-infielders who have absolutely zero worth to the team, a nice backup catcher and two interesting pitchers, one of whom is already 25. When you think of it in those terms, I would rather have Hee Seop Choi and a PTBNL any day. It's not so much that I think trading Richie Sexson is a bad idea, because I don't. He was Milwaukee's best player, but he is also already 28 and by the time that next good Brewers team arrives, he'll be well on the wrong-side of 30. So, it makes sense to cash him in while his value is high, like it is now. It just seems to me that the Brewers had better options than the package of assorted mediocrity that they got from Arizona. Hawk to Chicago Here's a little of what I said about Latroy Hawkins when I previewed the free agent pitchers last month: "I think a smart team out there is going to sign Hawkins for two or three years at $3-4 million a season and get one of the best relievers in baseball out of the deal. I'm still hoping that team will be the Twins."Well, Hawkins signed a three-year deal for about $4 million a year last night. Unfortunately, it wasn't with the Twins. Hawkins signed on with the Cubs for three seasons and what is reportedly somewhere around $11 million (depending on incentives). I am sad to see Hawkins go, because he has been a very reliable and extremely dominant pitcher for the Twins over the last two years. At the same time, a team with a projected payroll of about $55 million for next year has to make some tough choices and sometimes that includes not being able to pay a setup-man $4 million a year. Credit Terry Ryan for finding a suitable replacement for Hawkins in Joe Nathan, who should provide relatively similar value for about 10% the cost. The good news for the Twins is that they no longer have to make a decision on whether or not to offer Hawkins arbitration. To me that would have been a no-brainer because, at worst, it would have meant signing him to a one-year deal for maybe $3-4 million. But the Twins seemed to be going back and forth on the issue. Now, because Chicago signed Hawkins before the deadline to offer players arbitration, the Twins will get Chicago's first-round pick in this June's draft, as well as a "sandwich" pick between the first and second-round. Meanwhile, the Cubs get themselves a hell of a pitcher and, while some teams are handing out money left and right this week, the Twins lose a very valuable player, simply because they can't afford to sign everyone they want to keep. Hopefully Nathan can do the job next year and maybe one of those draft picks will turn into someone good. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, December 02, 2003
Coming to AmericaOne of the things that fascinates me most about the current state of baseball is that there are All-Star-level players and possibly even some Hall of Fame-level players playing somewhere other than in the United States of America right now.I suspect that, had I been around sixty years ago, I would have been fascinated by the idea that so many great players were playing in the Negro Leagues. All you need to do is look at the leaderboards for this year to see what an extraordinary impact African-American players have had on Major League Baseball. At the same time, similar impacts have been made by players from other countries, such as Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, just to name a few. But still, even with all the integration and immigration that has gone on in baseball over the last half-century and even with all the great players from other countries who are starring in the American major leagues right now, there are countless others out there yet to arrive. Whether in Japan or Cuba or other countries such as China, Korea and who knows where else, I don't think it is a stretch to say that there are dozens of great players who have yet to play a single game in the American major leagues. For some reason that idea is incredibly intriguing to me. The great players who have come from places like Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela are undeniable. But even the impact from a country like Japan, from which only a limited number of players have come to America to play, is pretty remarkable. Ichiro!, Hideki Matsui, Hideo Nomo, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Tomo Ohka, Kazuhisa Ishii, Hideki Irabu, Masato Yoshii, Tsuyoshi Shinjo - it is a short but relatively impressive list. Sure, not every Japanese import is a star. But neither is every guy who comes here from the Dominican Republic. Yet, even with the few players who have come here from Japan, a large number of them (Ichiro!, Nomo, Matsui, Hasegawa and Sasaki) have already been All-Stars. That has come with just a couple of players coming here from Japan every year or so. Can you imagine what would happen if the floodgates really opened? How many new All-Stars from Japan would there be? How many new .300-hitters? How many new starting pitchers? How many new closers? I think it is incredible to imagine. And that is just with regard to Japan, one of many largely "untapped" resources for Major League Baseball. I sometimes think about how many Hall of Fame players never got a chance to play baseball in the American major leagues. 1? 3? 10? 100? I really have no idea, but I bet it's more than most people would think. Forget Hall of Famers or even All-Stars, how many simply "good" players from other countries never got a chance to play? How many fourth-outfielders and fifth-starters and backup catchers? How many setup-men and utility infielders? And today, how many dozens of good, major league-caliber baseball players are out there, playing in other countries? I suspect a lot of people would call this sort of thinking silly. And probably even some of you reading this right now think I am exaggerating the amount of great players playing in other places right now. But wouldn't you have said the same thing decades ago? Before the incredible amount of great African-American players started playing in the majors? What about before the floodgates finally started to open for Latin American countries? Fortunately, with each passing year, I think more and more great players from other countries will make the trip to the United States to test their skills against the best of the best. And that is nothing but incredibly good for Major League Baseball. This off-season, the biggest name coming to America is Kazuo Matsui, a star shortstop from Japan. "Little Matsui" will follow Ichiro! and Hideki Matsui as established, veteran, star players coming to play Major League Baseball after years of dominating in Japan. From everything I have read about him, Kaz Matsui sounds like a mix of Ichiro!'s speed and Hideki Matsui's power, all wrapped up into an outstanding defensive shortstop. As you might guess from that description, I have seen rumors that no less than a dozen teams are interested in signing him. Still, the big question with any player who has yet to play in the American minor leagues, let alone the American major leagues, is how he will adjust to the new competition. I think it is a given that a player coming from another country, whether it is Japan or somewhere else, is expected to experience a drop-off in production. It is the same thing that is expected of American minor league players when they first make it to the majors. The competition is simply better than they have ever faced before. The key is how much of a drop-off. It would be nice to be able to say with confidence that a player coming from Japan should be 85% as productive in America, but it isn't that simple. Even with the outstanding work that has been done in trying to project Japanese performance, it is still somewhat a mystery. The projections for Ichiro! were fairly accurate, whereas the projections for Hideki Matsui were significantly off-the-mark. To try to get a feel for what we might be able to expect from Kaz Matsui's rookie season in America, let's first take a look at how other Japanese hitters have faired in their first seasons here, compared to their final seasons in Japan. ICHIRO! HIDEKI MATSUI TSUYOSHI SHINJOThere are all kinds of sample-size problems with using just three players and a total of six seasons, but there are still some interesting things to be taken from this stuff. Just to make things a little easier, let's put all the numbers into one table and show the changes each player experienced in his first season in America (shown as +/- percentages)... AVG OBP SLG ISOP ISOD GPAThe six stats shown above are: - Batting average (AVG) - On-base percentage (OBP) - Slugging percentage (SLG) - Isolated Power (ISOP) - Isolated Discipline (ISOD) - Gleeman Production Average (GPA) You almost certainly know all about the first three stats (AVG, OBP, SLG). "Isolated Power" is slugging percentage minus batting average. In other words, how much "raw" power does someone have. "Isolated Discipline" is a name I made up, but the stat is the same as Isolated Power, except it measures someone's "raw" plate discipline, by taking their on-base percentage and subtracting batting average. Finally, "Gleeman Production Average" is a stat I introduced here last week. The formula is [(OBP*1.8) + SLG] / 4 and I think it is a good measure of someone's overall offensive effectiveness. Okay, so what do all those numbers show? First of all, each player saw his overall offensive production drop quite a bit. Using GPA as the judge, their offense dropped by 16.4, 29.4 and 8.2 percent, respectively. But how did their offense drop? Was it because of losses in batting averages? Homers? Walks? Well, let's take a look... The smallest drop-off among the six stats is batting average. While Ichiro!, Matsui and Shinjo all saw their averages fall, they didn't fall all that much compared to the other categories - "only" 9.6, 14.1 and 3.6 percent. The most interesting thing to me is the Isolated Power and Isolated Discipline numbers. All three players saw their power drop off a cliff, with declines of 29.6, 58.6 and 35.7 percent. This seems to agree with the general opinion, which is that Japanese ballparks are much smaller than U.S. ballparks and thus easier to hit for power in. On top of that, Ichiro! (Safeco Field) and Shinjo (Shea Stadium) played their rookie seasons in particularly tough ballparks for power-hitting. In regard to Isolated Discipline, it is the only area in which there was actually an improvement by someone upon coming to America. Tsuyoshi Shinjo saw his ISOD go up 2.4% in his first season here. Making that even more interesting is the fact that the other two guys saw their Isolated Disciplines go down by incredible amounts - 57.5% and 48.0%. Believe it or not, I have what I think is a pretty good reason for that. I think that much of both Ichiro! and Matsui's Isolated Discipline in Japan was based on pitchers and managers fearing them. I don't have the actual numbers, but I would guess that they were each intentionally walked quite a bit while in Japan. And, even when they weren't intentionally walked, they were almost certainly pitched around many times. But in the U.S. they were not feared nearly as much as rookies. Matsui was not the guy who hit 50 homers in Japan once he got to the Yankees, he was just another guy in his first MLB season. He was intentionally walked just five times last season and he walked a total of just 63 times, after walking 100+ in each of his final three seasons in Japan (while playing fewer games). Same thing goes for Ichiro!'s rookie year. He wasn't the feared .353 career hitter that he was in Japan. He was just another rookie who pitchers went after. He was intentionally walked 10 times in his first MLB season and he walked a total of just 30 times in 738 plate appearances. Okay, so that explains some of the huge ISOD drops that Matsui and Ichiro! experienced, but how does it explain the gain in ISOD that Shinjo had? Well, Shinjo was not a very good hitter in Japan, so pitchers there most likely didn't pitch around him or intentionally walk him. So, his OBP wasn't boosted by that. And then, when he got to America, pitchers continued to not pitch around him. I think the gain of 3.4% could just have easily been a loss of 3.4%, because basically he was pitched to the exact same way in both places. The question in how this all relates to Kaz Matsui is whether or not pitchers in Japan have been pitching around him, whether or not they have feared him to the same degree they feared Hideki Matsui and Ichiro!. Again, like with the other three Japanese players, I don't have intentional-walk numbers for Kaz Matsui. That said, in looking at his overall walk-totals, I would guess that he was pitched to a lot more than either Hideki Matsui or Ichiro! was. Kaz Matsui walked just 46, 53 and 55 times over the last three years, while playing 140 games per season. Pro-rated to 155 games played, that works out to an average of 55 walks per year. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsui walked an average of 126 times per 155 games during his final three seasons in Japan. Even Ichiro!, who has proven himself to be one of the most extreme free-swingers in baseball since coming to America, was walked an average of 65 times per 155 games played. Just from looking at the data from Ichiro!, Matsui and Shinjo, here are my guesses for what will happen to Kaz Matsui's numbers next year... - His batting average will fall, but because he has incredible speed, it won't fall as much as Hideki Matsui's did (14.1%). Ichiro!'s average fell 9.6% during his first year, so I'll say Kaz Matsui's drops an even 10%. - His Isolated Power will plummet, just like it did for the other three guys. I don't think it will take as big a hit as Hideki Matsui (58.6%), but I think it'll be right around Ichiro!'s drop (29.6%) and Shinjo's drop (35.7%). Let's say an even 30%. - With Isolated Discipline, there just isn't that far to drop in the first place. Matsui barely walks as it is, even less so than Ichiro! did in Japan. Let's say his ISOD drops 20%. Okay, with projections for AVG, ISOP and ISOD, we can form an actual projected stat-line for Kaz Matsui based on his 2003 Japanese League numbers (.305/.368/.549)... Year AVG OBP SLGI think that looks like a pretty decent projection. A .275/.325/.445 performance would equal a .258 GPA, which would be a 14.9% drop from his GPA in Japan last season. Ichiro!, Matsui and Shinjo had GPA drops of 16.4, 29.4 and 8.2 percent in their first MLB seasons. Of course, the .275/.325/.445 projection is subject to change, depending on which team he ends up signing with and which ballpark he ends up playing his home games in. A check of "The GPA Quick Reference Guide (2003)" shows that a .275/.325/.445 performance with a .258 GPA would have ranked Matsui 10th among MLB shortstops with 350+ plate appearances last year. Alex Rodriguez .328If you knock Berroa's totals down a bit because of his home ballpark being a great place to hit, his Rookie of the Year season is pretty much the same as Matsui's projection. For those of you who are fans of teams currently rumored to be hot after Matsui, you may be a little disappointed with that .275/.325/.445 projection. The projection is based on Matsui's 2003 season in Japan, which was very good, but also a step below his 2002 season in which he hit .332/.389/.617. If you do a similar projection (subtracting 10% in AVG, 30% in ISOP and 20% in ISOD) using his 2002 numbers, you get a new projection of .299/.345/.499, which would be good for a .280 GPA. That would have ranked him sixth among MLB shortstops last year. So, will it be .275/.325/.445, .299/.345/.499 or something totally different? Honestly, who knows? We'll just have to wait to find out. If nothing else, it will give us a new data point to look at when trying to project the next Japanese star! *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, December 01, 2003
Not So Gleeman-Length ThoughtsHe cannot tell a lieRemember last month, when Jonah Keri of Baseball Prospectus did an interview with San Diego General Manager Kevin Towers? I wrote an entry on this blog after reading the interview because I was so impressed with it. Here's a little bit of what I said at the time: "Towers' responses were incredibly thoughtful and intelligent and I was extremely impressed by the honestly and bluntness he showed. He didn't dance around questions or speak in double-talk, he answered everything directly and actually gave insight into the organization's thoughts and plans."In particular, I was impressed by Towers' response when asked about what the Padres were planning to do at catcher next season: "I'll say that we're looking at two or three guys on other clubs, two AL guys, one NL guy. All three play for three of the eight playoff clubs."Then, later in the interview, Towers said: "I'm hoping that the trade I was talking about that may bring that catcher may also open up an outfield spot to let Nady play every day."Well, the Padres and A's finally completed the deal that sent Mark Kotsay to Oakland for Ramon Hernandez and Terrence Long and I'd say Kevin Towers is looking even more honest and more forthcoming than he did originally, if that's possible. They traded for a catcher, just like he said they would. The catcher was from a playoff-team, just like he said he would be. And the trade clears an outfield spot for Xavier Nady, just like he said it would. I have never met Kevin Towers and Baseball Prospectus' interview with him is probably one of the only times I have seen him quoted in great length, but I've got say, I found his interview to be extremely interesting back in October and now that I see how his plans unfolded, I admire his honesty. Of course, whether or not being that forthcoming in an interview is a good thing or not for the GM of a baseball team is debatable, although it definitely makes for good reading. I'd also love to hear his honest and forthcoming answer to the question of just how bad a starting outfield of Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles and Xavier Nady is going to be defensively. Sheff to the Yanks It sounds as though Gary Sheffield and the Yankees have all but agreed upon a three-year deal. The immediate reaction from many people seems to be that New York is making a mistake, mostly because Sheffield does nothing to solve their defensive problems up the middle. I certainly agree that the Yankees middle-infield and middle-outfield situations are pretty bad on the defensive end. That said, Sheffield is one of the best hitters in baseball and adding his bat to the lineup is going to be a massive improvement over the production New York got from their right fielders last year (.256/.317/.465). And really, what is the difference if you are improving a team by 50 runs on offense or 50 runs on defense? It's the same 50 runs. Actually, I don't think that's completely true, but you get the general idea. And improving the team by 50 runs on defense would probably require more than just signing one player, which is all they had to do to improve the offense that much. As of late Sunday night, ESPN.com is saying that Sheffield will sign for three years and "$36 million to $38 million." Seeing those numbers reminded me of what I wrote about Sheffield when I previewed all of the free agents last month: "If I were running a team with an opening if left or right field I would love to sign [Sheffield] for something like three years and $32-35 million."Who would have guessed that the Yankees and I thought so similarly? Meanwhile, the Royals re-signed Joe Randa, Brian Anderson and Curtis Leskanic. Leskanic and Randa signed for 2004 with options for 2005 and Anderson signed for both years. The trio will make over $8 million next year and Anderson alone will make over $3 million in 2005. For a team that is about six months away from complaining about "not being able" to keep Carlos Beltran, these re-signings strike me as bad moves. I mean really, Brian Anderson for $3.25 million a year? He had a nice year last season, but it wasn't that great (3.78 ERA in 197.2 IP) and he has a career ERA of 4.58. And Joe Randa for $3.75 million? Again, he had a decent year (.291/.348/.452), but he's been thoroughly mediocre for years. When it comes to "small-market" teams, I am a big believer in not paying for mediocrity. That means not giving $3 million a year to a pitcher who isn't even a good bet to have an ERA under 4.00 and not paying $3.75 million to a league-average third baseman. I would much rather pay Carlos Beltran what he's worth and patch together cheaper alternatives to guys like Anderson, Randa and Leskanic. When you have a limited budget, you have to pick and choose what you're going to pay for. Lots of teams can sign mediocre guys for a few million a year to fill holes. The Kansas City Royals aren't one of them. How to ruin a great song I was flipping channels on Friday night when I stopped on NBC and saw the great Al Green singing "Let's stay together." Al is getting up there in age at this point, but I am a huge fan of his and it is a great song. Then, a moment later, just as I was starting to enjoy the song, Justin Timberlake enters the picture. Apparently I was watching "Justin Timberlake: Down Home in Memphis." But okay, I'm a big enough Al Green fan that I figured I could stomach a little Justin Timberlake too. So, for the next few minutes I watched in horror, as Al and Justin sang the song together. They basically just alternated, each singing a couple of lines or a few high-pitched "squeals." I have to say that if ever you have any doubt about whether or not someone is a great singer/musician/performer, put them on stage with Justin Timberlake. A 58-year old Al Green put him to shame. It sounded as if Al Green had gone to a karaoke bar and decided to do a duet with the guy who could hit the highest note in the place. When Al Green squeals and does all the weird stuff with his voice during a song, it sounds cool. When Justin Timberlake does it, it just sounds weird. And what kind of bizarro world are we living in where Al Green gets invited on stage to do a cameo appearance on Justin Timberlake's national television special?  
Quote of the Year: FOX NFL announcer Joe Buck, as Rams kicker Jeff Wilkins lined up for a short field goal in the first quarter against Minnesota yesterday afternoon: "Wilkins has been as valuable as any Ram this year."For those of you who aren't huge NFL fans, let me just tell you that it is impossible for a kicker to have been as valuable as "any" player on the team. And I don't care how many emails I get from former kickers or mothers of kickers - it is a fact. Kickers can be good. Kickers can be valuable. But kickers cannot be as valuable as any other player on the team, no matter how good the kicker and no matter how bad the team. In this case, Wilkins plays on the same team as Torry Holt, a wide receiver who is on-pace to set the all-time NFL record for receiving yards in a season. I don't really want to simply pick on Joe Buck here (although that was an incredibly ridiculous statement), but instead I want to point out what seems to be a growing trend in sports today. More and more announcers lately have taken to proclaiming more and more undeserving players the "MVPs" of teams. In basketball it will be some guy on a great team who comes off the bench and averages five points and four rebounds per game while playing good defense and "hustling." In baseball it's usually some left fielder who joins a team at mid-season and hits relatively well while the team wins lots of games. In football it is apparently a kicker who plays for a team with a great offense, thus allowing him to rack up tons of points. What is so wrong with just saying someone is good? Or that they are underrated? Or that they are very valuable? Why must people resort to such hyperbole and exaggeration? Robert Horry was not the MVP of the Lakers during their three-peat. Shannon Stewart was not the MVP of the American League, let alone the Minnesota Twins. And for the love of God, Jeff Wilkins is not as valuable as any other player on the St. Louis Rams. Happily ever after Congratulations to Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren, who got engaged to be married over Thanksgiving. Actually, congrats mostly to Tiger, because...well...  
*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |