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Friday, December 12, 2003
Out goes Pettitte, in comes BrownSoon after Andy Pettitte left the Yankees to sign a three-year deal with the Houston Astros yesterday afternoon, New York reportedly agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers that would bring Kevin Brown to New York.According to ESPN.com, the Yankees would send the Dodgers Jeff Weaver, two minor leaguers and $3 million. The deal is not official as of this writing, because Brown still has to accept the trade. As you may remember, when I did my gigantic, three-part preview of this off-season's free agents, I identified Pettitte as the guy I felt was the top starting pitcher on the market. The theory being that his strikeout rate and walk rate were both better than the rates of the two biggest names on the market, Bartolo Colon and Kevin Millwood. In addition to that, Pettitte has been hurt quite a bit by the sub par defense he has had behind him over the past several years, with the infield defense being particularly bad and particularly important to Pettitte, who is a ground ball pitcher. Here is some of what I said about Pettitte in that free agent preview: "Andy Pettitte, with his extreme ground ball tendencies and solid strikeout, walk and home run numbers, is someone who could see his numbers improve dramatically if given a chance to pitch with a good or even average defense behind him.Just as I said I'd love to do, the Astros signed Pettitte to a three-year deal worth $31.5 million. Meanwhile, Colon recently signed with Anaheim for four years and $48 million. Those numbers are similar to what I expected and I certainly still believe Pettitte will end up as a better signing than Colon. Pettitte now joins an Astros team that is likely to feature a middle infield of Adam Everett at shortstop and Jeff Kent at second base next season. While Kent has never been a great defender at second base, he is no worse than Alfonso Soriano, and the difference defensively at shortstop between Adam Everett and Derek Jeter is about as big a gap between two everyday defensive players at the same position as there can possibly be. Looking at defense as a whole and not just the middle infield, the Yankees ranked 28th in baseball at turning balls in play into outs last year, while the Astros ranked sixth. Of course, Pettitte will be moving from Yankee Stadium, which is a pitcher's ballpark, to Minute Maid Park, which is a hitter's ballpark. While that certainly won't help him any, I think it is worth pointing out that Minute Maid Park is probably not quite as friendly to offense as its "Juice Box" reputation suggests. In addition to that, Pettitte now gets to face a pitcher multiple times per game, instead of a DH, which should help make up for the switch in ballparks. In fact, the "league-average" ERA, adjusted to Minute Maid Park, was 4.41 last season. The league-average ERA, adjusted to Yankee Stadium, was 4.39. I think there is no doubt that the situation Pettitte now finds himself in - on a new team, in a new league, pitching in a new ballpark, with a new defense behind him - will give him a better chance to prevent runs than the situation he has been in for the last several years. At the same time, the trade-off is that he will no longer have the Yankees' offense scoring runs for him, although Houston has had good offenses during the past few years as well. Andy Pettitte has a career ERA of 3.94 and he has had ERAs of 4.00 or above in four of his last six seasons, plus another year when his ERA was 3.99. Despite that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pettitte pitch 200+ innings with an ERA around 3.50 in 2004. Pettitte may miss pitching in New York. He may miss Yankee Stadium. He may miss being a Yankee. He may miss getting all that incredible run-support. What he won't miss is that defense, and I think he's going to be very successful with Houston. Meanwhile, as Pettitte leaves a team with a horrible defense to join a team with a good defense, Kevin Brown does just the opposite. Last year, the Dodgers ranked fifth in all of baseball at turning balls in play into outs, doing so 72.0% of the time. Like Pettitte, Brown is an extreme ground ball pitcher. In fact, Brown had the third-most extreme ground ball ratio of any starting pitcher in baseball last year. For those of you who are curious, Pettitte ranked 14th. Because of his extreme ground ball style, Brown was particularly helped by Los Angeles' infield defense, which featured an all-field/no-hit double-play combo of Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora, as well as an elite defender at third base in Adrian Beltre. Not surprisingly, Brown allowed a hit on just 28.8% of the balls put in play against him in 2003. Now he moves to a team with a defense that allowed a hit on 30.2% of balls put in play and is particularly bad in the infield, where most of the balls put in play against Brown end up. I don't mean to sound like I am predicting a horrendous season for Kevin Brown in 2004, because I most certainly am not doing that. But the fact is that, if he accepts this deal to New York, he will join a team with a significantly worse defense than the team he was with last season. He's not going to turn into a horrible pitcher because of that switch, but he is going to suffer the same fate that Pettitte has suffered over the last few years, which involves a lot of ground balls making their way through the infield for cheap singles and, in turn, some additional runs scored against him. At the same time, Kevin Brown, when healthy, is a better pitcher than Andy Pettitte. Brown is going to be hurt a lot by New York's defense, just like any ground ball pitcher would be, but he is good enough to put up great numbers despite that. Following their World Series loss to the Marlins, there were a lot of questions about New York's starting rotation for 2004. Roger Clemens was retiring, Pettitte was a free agent, David Wells' status was up in the air. It now appears as though the Yankees pretty much have their 2004 rotation in place and I've got to say, it looks pretty damn good: Mike MussinaIn Mussina, Brown and Vazquez, the Yankees have three of the 10 best right-handed starting pitchers in all of baseball. David Wells will make a great #4 starter, just as he did last season, and they have several good options to fill the final spot in the rotation, including Jose Contreras, whom I think has a chance to be a dominant pitcher. Essentially, the replaced Clemens and Pettitte with Brown and Vazquez, and, as much as I like Pettitte, that looks like an extremely good trade-off to me. Throw in a completely rebuilt bullpen that will probably end up costing more than several entire teams in 2004, and I think the Yankees' pitching-staff looks incredibly good for next season. Their defense still stinks, although they may still do something to improve it this off-season, but their offense, as always, looks very formidably, particularly if they end up signing Gary Sheffield. Make no mistake about it, the Yankees are still the team to beat in the American League. That's it for this week, thanks for stopping by. If you missed any of the entries from earlier in the week, here they are: Monday: The 2004 Bill James Handbook Tuesday: Shannon vs. Jacque Wednesday: The New Plan Thursday: Link-O-Rama See ya Monday... *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, December 11, 2003
Link-O-RamaI bet you guys think it's easy, this whole blogging thing. You probably think I just sit down once a day and start typing, and stop when my fingers start to go numb. Let me tell you, it's tougher than it looks. Not a lot tougher, but it's tougher.The main blog-related thing I do everyday, aside from the actual writing, is scan ESPN.com, Rotoworld.com and Baseball Primer's "Clutch Hits" section, looking for news stories and articles from across the country. Then I scan all those great blogs that are listed on the left side of this page. One of the great things about being a baseball fan right now is that there are so many places where you can read stuff about baseball. You've got all the local newspaper websites from across the country, an ever-growing list of team-specific and general baseball blogs, and the always reliable sites like ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. I try to keep up-to-date on what's going on, not just with the Twins or with the biggest stories in baseball, but with the little stuff too. When Matt Stairs signs a one-year deal with the Royals for a million bucks, I just might write about it. You never know what will catch my eye and turn into a 3,000-word blog entry. Typically, when I find a story that I find interesting or one that makes me think of a possible topic for a future entry, I "bookmark" it. Then, if I'm ever struggling to find something to write about, I take a look at the stuff I've saved and I can usually find a good topic or two. Lately though, I must not be having much trouble thinking of stuff to write about. It's probably because of all the action going on this off-season and the fact that the Twins are changing almost everyday. Whatever the reason, I haven't had to use many of the potential topics I have bookmarked this month, which means they have been piling up, growing everyday. So, today I'd like to run through some of the stuff I have bookmarked and see if I can't clear some space while also touching on some interesting topics... Link: ESPN.com - The next impact import This article was from the end of November and it was all about Kazuo Matsui, who had yet to sign with the Mets. It talks about what type of player he is and includes some quotes from Robert Whiting, whom the article describes as "the widely respected author of the definitive book on Japanese baseball, 'You Gotta Have Wa.'" I really enjoyed the article and most of what Whiting had to say about Matsui. I did think one thing he said about Matsui was particularly "interesting": As for his fielding, Whiting says, "He reminds us of Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez."That's like saying someone's offense reminds us of Barry Bonds or Rey Sanchez. "His comedy reminds us of Richard Pryor or Carrot Top." "His acting reminds us of Al Pacino or Jenna Jameson." Going by what Whiting said, Mets fans can expect Matsui to either be the best defensive shortstop in the league or the worst. So at least you've got a good idea of what to expect. Link: Redbird Nation - Tony the Tiger (four-part series) Any fan of Bill James is no doubt familiar with his "Manager in a Box" feature, where he answers a series of questions about a manager to learn more about him. I have always been interested in that sort of thing, because, unlike players, it is amazingly difficult to judge a manager's performance. Sure, you've got wins and losses, but how much does that really tell you? A guy who wins 90 games a year is probably a good manager, but what if a guy wins 75 a year with a team that should only have won 65? With the Manager in a Box you don't really come closer to finding the true value of a manager, but it does make you think about what he likes to do and what he doesn't, what he does more than most managers, what types of players he likes in what types of roles, and so and so forth. Over at Redbird Nation, the best St. Louis Cardinals blog out there, they did a four-part Manager in a Box on Tony LaRussa. It's from a few weeks ago, but I remember really enjoying it. In fact, in looking at my bookmarks, I see that I bookmarked both Part One and Part Two, which means I must have really loved it. Here are the links to each part: - Tony the Tiger (Part One) - Tony the Tiger (Part Two) - Tony the Tiger (Part Three) - Tony the Tiger (Part Four) LaRussa is one of the more unique and interesting managers out there, which makes his Manager in a Box particularly good. I also think similar Manager in a Box entries would be great ideas for all those team-specific blogs out there. Heck, I might even do one for Ron Gardenhire, if another Twins fan doesn't beat me to it. Link: ESPN.com: Jason Stark - Why A-Rod turned out so "valuable" When this article was published, back in the middle of November, I actually meant to devote an entire entry to it. It was in response to Alex Rodriguez (finally) winning the AL MVP award and it basically consisted of Jayson Stark trying to define the word "valuable" so that it fit his belief of who should win the award. The thing that really bugged me an incredible amount about the article was that Stark used the word "we" about 1,000 times. A few examples pulled from the first few paragraphs of the lengthy article: - "You'd think, after watching 12 dozen MVP awards get handed out, we'd have some idea by now what that magic word "valuable" means." - "Because we can think of many words to describe A-Rod: "smooth" ... "dependable" ... "multitalented" ... even "great." But "valuable"? In some ways, sure. But in the context of this award? Sorry. We don't see it." - "We came to the conclusion that if you were trying to determine what the word "valuable" meant, you ought to ask yourself two questions..." Anyway, it goes on like that for quite a while. I'm not exactly sure why that bugged me so much, but it did. Every time I would read another "we" I just kept throwing my hands up, wondering what group of "we" Stark was including himself and his entire audience in. Certainly not the group of "we" that voted Alex Rodriguez the MVP of the American League. The logic in the article is often very confusing and I find most of it to be quite ridiculous. Of course, it is no more ridiculous than someone who thinks Shannon Stewart was the MVP of the American League, which Stark does. The reason I never wrote about Stark's article is basically that I like Jayson Stark. He's been nice to me and my blog and I generally enjoy reading what he writes over at ESPN.com. We are about as far apart on our thoughts of who the MVP of a league should be as two people can get, but that's not the end of the world. There are plenty of people who think like Jayson does and, thankfully, a lot of people who think like me. Anyway, the ship has long sailed on discussions of this year's AL MVP being interesting, but I just thought I'd link to that article, so I could explain why I didn't rip it apart at the time and also to give everyone who didn't read it a chance to do so. Believe me, if you are of a similar mind to me in regard to the MVP award, you'll be able to find plenty of "interesting" things in Stark's article without my assistance. Link: ESPN.com - Sosa's MVP goes to Pujols, not Bonds I check ESPN.com's front page about 100 times a day. On this particular day (November 19th), there was a front page headline that read: "Sosa's MVP goes to Pujols, not Bonds." I clicked on the article, expecting to find some sort of story that would justify it being on the front page. What I found was an article that began like this: SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic -- If Sammy Sosa had a vote for the NL MVP, he would've picked Albert Pujols over Barry Bonds.I don't really have anything brilliant to say about this, but I just wanted to make it known how confused I was when I saw that. First of all, why is that a front page story? What possible reason is there for that being considered top news on ESPN.com, even on the slowest sports news day of all-time? I don't even know that it's a story at all. I mean, why is it important to ask Sammy Sosa about the NL MVP? Why not Vladimir Guerrero or Gary Sheffield or Ken Griffey Jr. or Mike Piazza? My favorite Sosa line: "No player in the National League stood out more than Pujols in 2003," Sosa said.Uh, yeah. There was this one other guy who hit .341 / .529 / .749...nevermind. Link: Dick Allen's Baseball Blog - Baserunning 2003 One of my blogging buddies, Dick Allen (no, not that Dick Allen), did a little study on baserunning, where he used how often players scored when they were on base to assign them letter grades for baserunning. It's an interesting study, but that's not the reason why I am linking to it. No, the reason I am linking to it is that, in response to his study, Allen received an email from Bill James himself. How cool is that? I would just like to say that I have been writing this blog since August of 2002, which is like...hold on, my math stinks...17 months, and I have gotten a total of about five emails from well-known people or even semi-celebrity types. I know you're out there. Yes, you. You're reading this blog right now and you're a famous person. Drop me an email. It won't hurt. I promise not to mention your name and the fact that you are a reader, unless you want me to. C'mon, it'll make my day! If Curt Schilling is logging onto the Sons of Sam Horn message board at 2:30 am on Thanksgiving day, there's gotta be at least a couple of players who read this blog, right? In case you're wondering, I am hoping (praying?) that Luis Rivas doesn't own a computer. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, December 10, 2003
The New PlanWell, so much for Terry Ryan's plan.About a week ago I came to the realization that I had figured out Terry Ryan's off-season plan. He was going to shed the salaries of Eric Milton, Jacque Jones and A.J. Pierzynski, and use the remaining money to re-sign Shannon Stewart, Latroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado. He was going to go young, rebuild and compete, all at the same time. Or so I thought. Then Hawkins signed with the Cubs. But it wasn't so bad, because in dealing Pierzynski to San Francisco, Ryan had acquired Joe Nathan, who is perfectly capable of filling Hawkins' role in the bullpen. On Sunday night, Ryan re-signed Stewart for three years and $18 million and it looked as if he was on the verge of bringing Guardado back as well. Then, late Monday night, a Seattle newspaper reported that Guardado was set to sign with the Mariners. Sure enough, it was confirmed as fact yesterday afternoon. The good news is that the Twins offered Guardado arbitration, so they will receive draft picks as compensation for losing him, just as they will for losing Hawkins to Chicago. The bad news is that they are now without their two best relief pitchers, both homegrown players who had spent a combined 26 years in the organization. On a purely personal level, looking at things from a lifelong Twins fans' perspective, losing Hawkins and Guardado hurts. I watched Hawkins struggle like no other pitcher I have ever seen for years as a starter, before watching him turn into one of the best relievers in baseball. I watched Guardado find a niche as a good LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) and then establish himself as much more than that during the last few seasons. Now they are both gone and, with Jacque Jones likely leaving soon too, the 2004 Twins aren't going to look much like the one I have been living and dying with over the last several years. I've gotten used to watching Hawkins pump 95 MPH heat at batters like he was a pitching-machine turned to its highest setting. I've gotten used to hearing "Eddie! Eddie! Eddie!" from the Metrodome crowd as Guardado closes out yet another game with his typical "let's make it interesting" style. Suddenly, in the span of just a couple weeks, they're both gone. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), there isn't much time to dwell on the losses of players you have grown to love. As their departures have shown, we are right in the middle of the off-season and moves can be made at any time. I suspect the majority of Minnesota Twins fans are panicking right now, thinking about how grim a bullpen without Hawkins in the 8th and Guardado in the 9th just might be. I'll admit, the pitching-staff looks a little shaky right now, particularly in the bullpen. However, what the Twins have on their side now is money, something they have rarely had in the past. Terry Ryan cleared space in his tight budget and the players he was planning on using the newly found money on are no longer options. All of which means he is going to have to be something he has rarely been in his years as the General Manager of the Twins - a shopper in the free agent market. Good free agent relievers have been snatched up at a rapid pace this off-season. Hawkins, Guardado, Hasegawa, Worrell, Gordon, Reed, Sullivan, Quantrill, Ligtenberg, Beck - all off the market already. Fortunately, it was a pretty good year for free agent relievers and there is still a guy out there whom I think can replace Guardado's production for a fraction of the price. Who? Aw c'mon, just telling you wouldn't be any fun! Compare the following two left-handed relief pitchers over the last three seasons: IP ERA SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 GPA"Lefty #1" is Eddie Guardado, who just signed a three-year deal with Seattle that reportedly could pay him as much as $17 million to be their left-handed setup-man. "Lefty #2," the guy with the better numbers across-the-board, is, coincidentally enough, Seattle's former left-handed setup-man, Arthur Rhodes. Of course, many will be quick to point out that Rhodes has had the benefit of pitching in Safeco Field, one of the best pitcher's ballparks in baseball. With that in mind, I would like to present Arthur Rhodes' 2001-2003 home/road splits: ARTHUR RHODES (2001-2003)His ERA is actually better on the road, as is his opponent batting average. His strikeout rate is pretty much the same both places. The only things that change are that he walks more people at home and gives up about twice as many homers. Of course, "twice as many homers" sounds a lot worse than it really is. Rhodes gave up eight homers in 89.2 innings on the road since 2001, an average of 0.80 per nine innings. Over that same span, Guardado gave up an average of 1.40 homers per nine innings on the road, nearly double that. Overall, Guardado gave up 0.95 homers per nine innings from 2001-2003, about 19% more than Rhodes gave up on the road. Rhodes has dominating stuff, much more so than Guardado. He throws his fastball in the mid-90s and his slider is just disgusting. He has been a very good relief pitcher throughout his career and has had many exceptional seasons. 2003 was not one of those years. After posting ERAs of 1.72 and 2.33 with Seattle in 2001 and 2002, Rhodes' ERA rose to 4.17 last season. Beyond the ERA though, his numbers look just fine. He held opponents to .256/.316/.372, gave up just four homers in 54 innings and had a 2.67/1 strikeout/walk ratio. It was, without question, a sub par year for Rhodes. It was also a pretty good season, much better than his ERA would indicate. Arthur Rhodes was a better pitcher than Eddie Guardado in 2001 and 2002, and he was a better pitcher during the last three seasons combined. I have very little doubt in my mind that if the Twins were to sign Arthur Rhodes, he would produce very similar, if not better, numbers to Eddie Guardado next season. There is also the issue of whether or not Rhodes can handle being a "closer." Personally, I think the majority of all that closer-talk is just that - talk. Sure, there may be players better suited for a pressure situation than others, but for the most part I think a great reliever will be a great reliever, whether you use him in the sixth inning or the ninth inning. Arthur Rhodes has the numbers of a closer. He has the stuff of a closer. He has the confidence of a closer. All he needs to become a closer is a team willing to let him try it for an extended period of time. I would guess, judging from what some of the other setup-men have gone for already, Arthur Rhodes could be had for two years and somewhere around $6-7 million. That's about what Tim Worrell, Tom Gordon, Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Paul Quantrill got. In my mind, there is absolutely no way Eddie Guardado is worth $2 million per season more than Arthur Rhodes. No way. Don't try to tell me any of that junk about Guardado being a "proven closer" while Rhodes isn't. Eddie Guardado is a perfect example of why all this crap about closers is garbage. He was a guy who was a failed starter who became a good LOOGY and then, when given a shot closing out games, did well. And now, a few years after he was just another lefty in a bullpen, he is a "proven closer." Arthur Rhodes has proven himself no less able to close games than Eddie Guardado was three years ago. In fact, I'd say Rhodes' resume up to this point lends itself to believing he could close games a whole lot more than Guardado's did before he was given a shot. Eddie Guardado has been a very good pitcher for the Minnesota Twins and he will likely continue to be a very good pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. Losing him hurts and I honestly think it shakes up Terry Ryan's off-season plan quite a bit. That said, there are other options and this is far from the end of the world. I am officially endorsing Arthur Rhodes as Minnesota's replacement for Eddie Guardado. He can do Guardado's job just fine and he can do it for less money. Sign Rhodes up for 2-3 years and take the money you saved and use it somewhere else (I hear second base is a giant, gaping abyss of uselessness). I only hope Terry Ryan or someone close to him is reading this, because I honestly think signing Rhodes could be the key to their off-season. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, December 09, 2003
Shannon vs. JacqueLate Sunday night, up against the deadline to offer arbitration to their free agents, the Minnesota Twins re-signed Shannon Stewart for three years and $18 million.Bringing Stewart back for the next three seasons (at $5.5, $6.0 and $6.5 million) essentially means the end of Jacque Jones' time in Minnesota. Jones has been rumored to be on the move, possibly to San Diego or Atlanta, for the last several weeks. With Stewart now entrenched in left field for 2004-2006 and Jones' salary likely climbing close to $5 million for next season, I would be willing to bet Jones will be gone before the end of the month. The big question I've heard Twins fans asking themselves over the last few days is which guy they would rather have as the starting left fielder over the next three seasons. I have pondered that question myself, so I figured I might as well try to answer it here. Let's first take a look at what they did last season... 2003Very similar production last season, including almost identical batting averages and slugging percentages. Stewart gets the edge in GPA because he is willing to do something that Jacque Jones isn't, which is take a walk now and again. The funny thing about all that ridiculous Stewart-for-MVP talk is that Stewart's 2003 season wasn't really any different from what he has done in the past. Stewart's adjusted OPS+ last season was 113. His adjusted OPS+ totals from the previous three seasons were 119, 113 and 117. Of course, that's not to say he didn't have a good year, because he did. It is just that, because Stewart has been fairly consistent over the years (which is a good thing) his good year in 2003 was no better than many of his other years. In fact, during the last three years it goes beyond "fairly consistent": SHANNON STEWARTThat's about as close as three consecutive seasons can get. Stewart turns 30 in February, so a drop-off could be around the corner at any moment. That said, I think the Twins should feel confident that Stewart can provide them with .300/.360/.450 hitting for the next three years. Is that better offensive production than could be expected out of Jacque Jones over that same span? I think so. Jones has hit .300+ over the last two years and has topped a .450 slugging percentage numerous times, but there's a good chance he will never reach a .360 on-base percentage. His career-high is .341, set in 2002, and his career OBP is just .332. Jones is a hacker. He hits for a good batting average and he's got nice power, but he is simply going to make a lot of outs over the course of a season. Further complicating things is the fact the he can't hit lefties to save his life. JACQUE JONES vs LHPAs you can see, the .269/.310/.393 performance against lefties in 2003 was actually better than Jones has done against southpaws throughout his career. His struggles against lefties don't mean Jacque Jones isn't a good player, they just mean he is a platoon-player, or at least he should be. Unfortunately, for the most part he has not been platooned with the Twins, particularly not during the last couple years. Jones' main asset is obviously his ability to hit right-handed pitching. He hit .317/.342/.492 against righties last season. That sounds impressive and it is, compared to how he hit against lefties, but it's actually a slightly lower GPA than Shannon Stewart had last season overall. Here is how their performances against righties stack up over the last three years: vs RHP (2001-2003)So, against right-handed pitching, Jones has been a better hitter than Stewart over the last three years. The gap isn't huge, but it's still somewhat significant. The question then becomes whether or not the Twins are willing to play Jones exclusively against righties. They certainly have the outfield bats in their system to find a nice platoon-mate for him in left field, but I would guess that, if Jones were the left fielder in 2004-2006, he would be playing everyday. His ability to hit righties is only an asset if that is the only thing he is asked to do. When he is asked to also flail away against lefties it cancels out much of his good work against righties, and his overall numbers are brought down to the point that Stewart (who is a .322/.392/.475 hitter against lefties over the last three years) is clearly a superior offensive player. Then there is the issue of defense. I happen to think (and most defensive metrics would agree with me) that Jacque Jones is an incredible defensive left fielder. Of course, that's sort of like saying Jason Kendall runs well for a catcher or that Alec Baldwin acts well for a Baldwin brother. At the same time, Shannon Stewart is, at best, an average defensive left fielder. Is the gap between their defensive abilities in left field enough to make up for Stewart's offensive edge? Well, think of it this way... Equivalent Runs per 650 PA (2001-2003)Going by their numbers over the last three years, if Jones and Stewart were each stuck out in left field and asked to play everyday for an entire season (about 650 plate appearances), Stewart would create about six more runs than Jones. Is Jones more than six runs better than Stewart defensively? I think it's hard to say. My initial reaction is yes, but we are talking about left field here and it isn't like Stewart is completely lost out there. I think the gap in defense is probably somewhere around 5-10 runs per season in Jones' favor. Of course, none of this would be an issue if Ron Gardenhire and the Twins realized that they could simply platoon Jones with someone like Michael Restovich or Lew Ford in left field and get combined production from the position that was not only much better than what Jones would give them by himself, but also superior to what they're likely to get from Stewart. That never seemed to be an option however, so the question is who is better on an everyday basis in left field, playing full-time against righties and lefties. I think it's pretty damn close. Stewart is better offensively, Jones is better defensively. Combining offense and defense gives you two players who are probably about five runs different over the course of 160 games, if that. The issue then is whether you would rather have your production from left field distributed so that it's really good when right-handed pitchers are on the mound and really bad when left-handers are on the mound, or if you'd rather have a more even distribution. I honestly don't know the answer to that question, or even if it makes a huge difference either way. My gut reaction is that, all things being equal, I'd prefer someone who can contribute against righties and lefties, but that may just be because I'm tired of watching Jacque Jones look helpless when someone who throws a baseball with their left hand is on the mound. Another thing to consider here is that, if the Twins would have stuck with Jones as their left fielder, they would have received nothing for Stewart. After signing Stewart to play left field, they now have the option of trading Jones to another team, presumably getting a valuable player or two in the process. For the next three seasons, I think Shannon Stewart and Jacque Jones are a good bet to have very similar value to a team as everyday left fielders. The money they will likely make is also going to be very similar. By keeping Stewart, the Twins get a player who is as good as Jones for about the same money they would have paid Jones, and they also have the ability to trade Jones for other players. In that sense, the choice was not Shannon Stewart or Jacque Jones, but rather Shannon Stewart and whatever you could get in trade for Jacque Jones or Jacque Jones. When you look at it that way, I think it is a no-brainer. This all means that what has already been an exciting off-season for fans in Minnesota is only going to get more interesting. I would guess that the Twins have been actively shopping Jacque Jones for some time now and I wouldn't be surprised if they completed a deal for him very soon. What might they get for him? I honestly don't know, but I really hope Terry Ryan is looking to deal him for a middle infielder and/or a starting pitcher. If the rumors about Ryan being in talks with San Diego and Atlanta are true, I'll throw out some names that I wouldn't mind coming to the Twins... San Diego: Jake Peavy Brian Lawrence Adam Eaton Khalil Greene Josh Barfield Mark Loretta Ramon Vazquez Atlanta: Marcus Giles Andy Marte Adam Wainwright Macay McBride Bubba Nelson Dan Meyer If Ryan is looking for middle infielders and/or young pitching like I hope he is, San Diego and Atlanta are both very good trading partners. The Padres have a trio of good, established starters in Jake Peavy, Brian Lawrence and Adam Eaton, as well as a whole slew of intriguing middle infielders. The Braves, as they almost always do, have a ton of interesting pitching prospects in their system. My dream scenario is that Ryan is able to talk Atlanta GM John Schuerholtz into trading him Marcus Giles for Jacque Jones. Likely? Um...no. You never know though, right? I'll say this, if Ryan can make Marcus Giles a Minnesota Twin at some point this off-season, I will never stop praising him for it. In other Twins news... According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, it appears as though Eddie Guardado is a goner. Here's a quote from this article: "A pair of sources close to the Mariners said yesterday the left-handed reliever, who saved 41 games for the Twins last season, would sign with the Mariners in the next day or two.This is sad news, but it is far from the end of the world. If in fact Guardado is headed for Seattle, I'll have more on this situation tomorrow. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, December 08, 2003
The 2004 Bill James Handbook
I think the best way to describe The 2004 Bill James Handbook is to tell you what my mom thinks of it. I ordered the book online a little while ago and, for some reason, had it shipped to my mom's house, instead of my dorm room. My mom told me it arrived in the mail a few days ago and then said, "I looked at it and it's all just a bunch of numbers." Whether or not you think a baseball book that is "all just a bunch of numbers" is a good thing is a matter of personal preference, obviously. I would guess that if you're a regular reader of this blog you will love the book. It contains just about any stat you could ever want in regard to the just completed 2003 season. Year-by-year career stats for every player who played in the majors in 2003, including minor league numbers for many players. Detailed team stats and league stats. Tons of defensive stats for every player, at every position. Stats for managers, including how often they pinch-hit, what percent of the time they use platoons and how often they use relievers. Lefty/righty splits for every hitter and every pitcher. Active career batting and pitching leaders in a number of categories. Career and year-by-year Win Shares for all active players. And so much more. Of particular interest to me is the section called "2003 Leader Boards." It contains the top 10 players in each league for about 1,000 different stats, from the normal (batting average) to the obscure (steals of third base). I'd like to share with you some of the more interesting tidbits of information I found in the 2003 Leader Boards section of The 2004 Bill James Handbook, along with some of my own comments...  
Juan Pierre led all of baseball in singles, with 168. Ichiro! was second in MLB and first in the AL with 162. Pierre's 168 singles accounted for 82.3% of his hits last season. He also added 28 doubles, 7 triples and 1 homer. Barry Bonds, who was second in the NL in home runs with 45 and was the MVP of the National League, hit 65 singles. They accounted for just 48.8% of his hits. 
Jason Giambi led the AL in walks (129), strikeouts (140) and times hit by pitch (21). He was also fourth in the AL in homers with 41. Giambi played in 156 games and came to the plate 690 times last year. That means he did something other than stroll to first base, back to the dugout or around the bases in just 52.0% of those plate appearances. Not surprisingly, Giambi also led the AL in total pitches seen, with 2,913.   
Milton Bradley hit .402 against left-handed pitching, leading the AL. He also led the AL with a .500 OBP against southpaws. Manny Ramirez was second in the AL in both stats, checking in at .385 and .476. Frank Thomas led the league in slugging percentage versus lefties at .732. Barry Bonds led the NL in OBP versus lefties (.509), OBP versus righties (.537), slugging percentage versus lefties (.790), and slugging percentage versus righties (.729). 
Tampa Bay right-hander Victor Zambrano led the AL in walks allowed (106), hit batters (20) and wild pitches (15). When he wasn't walking them, hitting them or bouncing a pitch to the backstop, batters hit just .238 against Zambrano, no doubt because they were scared for their lives.   
The AL "leaders" in losses: Mike Maroth (DET) 21Those three combined to make 93 of Detroit's 162 starts, pitching a total of 550 innings. They went 21-57. Amazingly, their .269 winning percentage was better than the rest of Detroit's pitching-staff, which went 22-62 for a .262 winning percentage.  
Just five AL hitters who qualified for the batting title had an on-base percentage of at least .400. Over in the NL, 10 hitters had an OBP of at least .400, including Barry Bonds at .529. Alex Rodriguez was the only AL player with a slugging percentage of at least .600 and he was at exactly .600. In the NL, five players slugged at least .600, led by Barry Bonds at .749. Bonds' .529 OBP would have ranked 14th in the NL in slugging percentage. 
The highest on-base percentage by a leadoff hitter in the American League came from Jerry Hairston Jr., who had a .389 OBP in 201 plate appearances leading off. In the NL, Marquis Grissom, who drew a total of 20 walks all year, led in OBP by a leadoff hitter with a .412 OBP in 167 plate appearances there. As a leadoff-man, Grissom drew a walk every 13.9 plate appearances. Batting everywhere else in the lineup, he walked once every 56.4 plate appearances.  
Of the top 10 AL hitters in batting average against right-handed pitching just two of them, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, hit right-handed. The top eight guys all hit left-handed (including Bill Mueller, who is a switch-hitter). Of the top 10 AL hitters in batting average against left-handed pitching, Ichiro! is the only lefty and he hit .359 against them. 
The Official Pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog, Johan Santana, led the AL with an .800 winning percentage. Johan only threw 158.1 innings this year, narrowly missing the 162-inning cutoff for being included in all the pitching leader boards. Had he reached that mark, here is how he would have ranked among AL pitchers in various categories: Earned Run Average 4thJohan also held opponents to a .165 batting average with runners in scoring position, the best in the AL. He was fifth among all pitchers in opponent batting average versus lefties (.191) and 10th in opponent batting average against righties (.227).   
Which AL pitcher threw the most pitches per start this year? I think most people would probably guess Roy Halladay, who led the AL in innings, games started, batters faced and wins. Actually though, Halladay didn't throw all that many pitches per start, mostly because his 3.39 pitches per batter ranked second to only David Wells for fewest in the AL. In fact, Halladay, who totaled 266 innings this year and threw an average of 7.4 innings per start, isn't even among the top 10 for most pitches per start in the AL. The leader? Joel Pineiro, who threw an average of 109.2 pitches in his 32 starts for Seattle. Pineiro had a good year, going 16-11 with a 3.78 ERA in 211.2 innings, but the fact that he led the league in pitches per start is both surprising and a little disturbing. After all, Pineiro was just 24 years old. 109.2 pitches per start is getting extremely close to A.J. Burnett-territory. Burnett, also known as The Official Injured Pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog, threw an average of 109.5 pitches per start in 2002, on his way to Tommy John surgery. Pineiro threw at least 110 pitches in 17 of his 32 starts (53%) and threw 120+ in five of them (16%). Perhaps not surprisingly, Pineiro faded badly in the second-half of the year, going 5-6 with a 4.57 ERA after the all-star break, following a 11-5/3.28 first-half.  
While Joel Pineiro led the AL in pitches per start and has been in A.J. Burnett-territory as far as workload for a young pitcher is concerned, there are two right-handers in Chicago who blow Pineiro and Burnett out of the water. Mark Prior led the NL in pitches per start with 113.3 and Kerry Wood was second at 110.7. Cubs manager Dusty Baker had a reputation for working his starting pitchers very hard in San Francisco, and he certainly lived up to that in his first season with Chicago. Along with Prior and Wood ranking 1-2 in the league in pitches per start, Carlos Zambrano also ranked 7th. Prior and Zambrano were each 22 years old last season and Kerry Wood is 26, but already has a significant elbow injury under his belt. As I have said on this blog many times, I think Mark Prior will go down as one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball. So, in that respect, I can understand Dusty Baker wanting to have him on the mound to throw as many pitches as possible. And, obviously, riding Prior so hard worked out fairly well for the Cubs last year. In the long-run though, I don't see how anyone can justify letting a 22-year old pitcher in his first full-season throw 113.3 pitches per start. Prior threw at least 100 pitches in 26 of his 30 starts (87%) and threw 110+ pitches in 20 of his 30 starts (67%). Consistently going beyond the 110-pitch mark is the point at which I start to have concerns and Prior did that constantly last year. The really disturbing thing is that he threw 120+ pitches in nine of his 30 starts (30%), including nine of his final 23 (39%) of the year. Wait, it gets worse. Prior threw at least 130 pitches in a start on three occasions, plus an additional 133-pitch start in the playoffs. If you count his three post-season starts, Prior's pitch-counts in his last dozen starts look like this: 118 100 116 131 129 110 124 131 133 133 116 119 That is an average of 121.7 pitches per start over the course of about three months, which is just crazy. I am particularly appalled by the back-to-back-to-back starts in which he went 131, 133 and 133 pitches. There is some reason to believe Mark Prior is a freak of nature, a person simply built for throwing a baseball. His delivery is picture-perfect, his incredible velocity and movement seem to come with relative ease, and he has the size and strength that scouts drool over. I am, of course, hoping that Prior, being the freak that he is, can withstand whatever massive pitch-counts he is going to face as long as Dusty Baker is his manager. Baker let Prior, at 22 years old, throw 121.7 pitches per start over the last three months of this season. Prior will be a year older next season, and now Dusty knows him better and knows just how great he can be. Can you imagine how many 130-pitch games Prior is going to have next year? As baseball fans, I think we should all pray for Mark Prior's right arm. And you might want to say a little something for Wood and Zambrano too, as long as you're at it.  
Scott Hatteberg led the AL in percentage of pitches taken, doing nothing but stare at 66.9% of the pitches he saw. Erubiel Durazo was the only other Oakland hitter was in the top 10. Three Yankees (Nick Johnson, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui) ranked 4th, 6th and 7th. The Official Red Headed Switch-Hitter of Aaron's Baseball Blog, Bobby Kielty, took 61.4% of his pitches, ranking 9th in the league. In the NL, Barry Bonds led in percentage of pitches taken, with 65.9%. I'm not sure if intentional balls are counted as "pitches taken," but Bonds saw 244 of them, which would boost up that percentage quite a bit.   
Bonds led the NL with a 1.393 OPS against fastballs. Going along with the theory that curveballs don't curve as much in Colorado, Rockies Jay Payton and Todd Helton ranked 1-2 in the NL in OPS against curveballs and another Rockie, Preston Wilson, ranked fifth. Going along with the theory that if you throw him a curveball Gary Sheffield will hit it really hard, Sheffield led all non-Rockies in OPS versus curves at 1.043. Trot Nixon led the AL with a 1.184 OPS against fastballs. Minnesota's catching-duo of A.J. Pierzynski and Matthew LeCroy led the AL in OPS against changeups, at 1.111 and 1.106, respectively. Ron Gardenhire has often referred to LeCroy as "softball Matty," so maybe he's onto something.  
Greg Maddux threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes in 2003, which surprisingly was good for only second-place among NL starters. Kevin Millwood ranked first, throwing 65.3% of his pitches for strikes. Along with Millwood ranking first, Philadelphia pitchers Vincente Padilla and Brett Myers ranked 4th and 5th in the league. I'd like to hear Philadelphia pitching coach Joe Kerrigan's ideas on throwing strikes, because I think it's pretty obvious he got his pitchers to do that last year. Of course, in addition to getting them to throw strikes, Kerrigan also got them to forget all about the running-game. Kevin Millwood allowed 41 stolen bases last year and just four runners were thrown out trying to steal against him. That means they went 41/45 (91.1%) against him, which is just crazy. Overall, the Phillies allowed 112 stolen bases last year at an 82.3% clip, which is incredible, although not all that unexpected. I remember Kerrigan had his pitchers pay similar attention to the running-game while with the Red Sox. 
Speaking of Philadelphia letting teams run at will, I think their starting catcher, Mike Lieberthal, is a perfect example of why looking a catcher's "throw-out rate" is more than a little misleading. Lieberthal threw out just 18.4% of the runners who tried to steal a base against him this season. That is a really awful percentage and it would lead you to believe Lieberthal is a poor-throwing catcher. It would lead you to believe that, but nothing could be farther from the truth. Check out Lieberthal's throw-out rates prior to 2003: 1996 36.4Prior to this year, Lieberthal had a career throw-out rate of 34.0%. To put that into some context, the best rate among regular catchers in the NL this season was 38.2%, by Damian Miller. Like most things in baseball, things aren't always as black and white as they first appear. A catcher's throw-out percentage is a good example of that. 
To me, the most interesting group of stats found in The 2004 Bill James Handbook is the charting of pitches. The book includes the leaders in such things as average fastball velocity, percentage of curveballs thrown, pitches less than 80 MPH and lots more. I hadn't seen such information before and this type of stuff is really intriguing to me. For example, in the entire American League last season, only 26 pitches were thrown at least 100 miles per hour. 12 of those 26 were thrown by Bartolo Colon, who led the league. Meanwhile, over in the NL, a total of 179 pitches were thrown at least 100 MPH. Why the massive difference between the two leagues? Two words: Billy Wagner. Wagner, a lefty who claims to be 5'11" and 195 pounds, threw 159 pitches at least 100 MPH last season. All other major league pitchers threw 46, combined. More than any stat in this book (and there are a TON of them), that one blew me away the most. As a closer, Wagner threw a total of just 1,315 pitches last year. That means 12.1% of them reached triple-digits. Bartolo Colon, whose 12 100+ MPH pitches ranked second in all of baseball, reached triple-digits on 0.3% of his pitches. I can't even put into words how amazing that is to me. The book also lists the league leaders in pitches of at least 95 miles per hour. Kerry Wood led the NL with 1,138 and Colon led the AL with 636. What is missing from the book is a list of the guys who threw the highest percentage of their pitches 95+. The raw totals are interesting, but I'd be more interested in the percentages. For example, Wood's MLB-leading 1,138 pitches of 95+ last season accounted for 32.1% of his total pitches for the year. That number seems really impressive, until you do a little number crunching and find that Wagner threw 58.2% of his pitches at least 95 MPH. Honestly, with all due respect to Barry Bonds, I don't think there is a more amazing baseball player on this planet than Billy Wagner. The 2004 Bill James Handbook is a must-have for any serious baseball fan. If I could make one suggestion for next year's book, it is that they add even more stats and even more categories. Specifically, I think it would be great for them to add "trailers" for all the stats, in addition to the leaders. In other words, it's fun to know that Barry Bonds led the NL in Isolated Power or that Scott Hatteberg took the highest percentage of called pitches in the AL or that Milton Bradley led the AL with a .402 batting average against lefties or that Jay Payton led the NL in OPS versus curveballs. At the same time, I want to know who was on the other end of the spectrums too. Who had the lowest Isolated Power? Who swung at the highest percentage of pitches? Who stunk the most against left-handed pitching? Which guys can't hit curveballs? The possibilities are endless. If you haven't already, I highly suggest you get yourself a copy of The 2004 Bill James Handbook. It is reasonably priced at $19.95 and it is even cheaper at Amazon.com, where you can grab it for just $13.97. If you are interested in the book and would like to order it online, I would love it if you would use the following link to do so: If you click on the above link to the book and purchase it for $13.97, I get a 5% commission. 70 cents per book might not sound like much, but if 20 of you click on that link and buy it, I get my copy for free! *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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