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Wednesday, December 24, 2003
'Twas the night before Christmas...Here's wishing a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to one and all!Aaron's Baseball Blog will be off for the rest of this week and will then return, first thing Monday morning, for the final week of entries for 2003. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Tuesday, December 23, 2003
Redman and Method ManHere's a series of transactions you don't see everyday:Tuesday, December 16th: - Oakland trades Mike Neu and a PTBNL or cash to Florida for Mark Redman Saturday, December 20th: - Oakland declines to tender Mark Redman a contract, making him a free agent Sunday, December 21st: - Oakland "re-signs" Mark Redman for three years and $11 million For a minute there I thought Billy Beane had gone insane. Trading a perfectly decent relief pitcher and either another player or cash for a guy he went on to non-tender a couple days later. But fear not, Beane is perfectly sane. He apparently just needed a little more time to negotiate with Redman, because he worked out the three-year deal shortly after non-tendering him. First things first, Mark Redman is a nice pitcher and $11 million for three years of him is a good price. He's not great, but he has almost always been league-average or better and his strikeout rate jumped this year, so there is reason to be optimistic for improvement. MARK REDMANAt the same time, I'm not sure that this is a good deal specifically for the Oakland A's. On most teams, a solid starting pitcher for $3.7 million a year is a very nice pickup. For the A's though, there are two unique circumstances involved. 1) They have an incredible amount of young starting pitching. Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Mike Wood, John Rheinecker, Shane Komine - the list goes on and on. 2) They have a very limited budget. Putting those two things together, it would seem to me like a foolish investment to spend $3.7 million per season on a pitcher who is likely going to be nothing more than a #4 or #5 starter, particularly when you have plenty of young, cheap options throughout the organization. As with most Beane moves, I think there may be a little something extra involved here. He has never been one to feel the need to use an "established veteran" over a promising rookie. In fact, one of the main reasons for Oakland's incredible success recently is their willingness to go with the unproven players in key roles, particularly in the starting rotation. Because of that, signing someone like Redman for a relatively good amount of money while you have guys like Blanton and Duchscherer (among others) waiting in the wings seems like a very uncharacteristic move for Beane. I do have a few theories on why he would do that though. 1) One of The Big Three (Hudson, Mulder, Zito) is on the trading block. They are starting to get expensive and their trade values are very high right now. If one of them goes, Redman could step into their spot and actually save the A's some money over the next three years, all while netting them what would probably be a pretty hefty return in trade. In his ESPN.com column yesterday, Rob Neyer suggests that Barry Zito is the guy Oakland should be looking to deal. I'll let you read what Rob has to say regarding why that is the case, but I do tend to agree with him. That is, if Oakland were to deal one of The Big Three, it should probably be Zito. By the way, here is the status of The Big Three, contractually: Barry ZitoIt would seem, from that at least, like the time to trade Zito would be after this season. He's still very cheap for 2004 and then his salary nearly doubles for 2005. 2) Joe Blanton is on the trading block. The same could be said about Justin Duchscherer too, although in his case it's probably more likely Beane just doesn't trust him in the rotation full-time. Blanton he has become one of the better pitching prospects in baseball and, if he follows in the footsteps of Zito and Hudson, he could be on schedule to make his MLB debut near mid-season. With Redman now signed for three years, perhaps this is a sign that Beane isn't as high on Blanton as you would think. Maybe he doesn't trust him to become a great pitcher right away like Zito and Hudson did. Instead, he pays a small premium for Redman at the back of the rotation, instead of Blanton, and trades Blanton when his value is very high. 3) Redman is destined to be in Oakland for just one season. This idea didn't strike me until I saw the breakdown of his contract. 2004 - 2.25 millionLet's say Beane just needs a fourth/fifth starter for one year, until Blanton is ready to step into the rotation full-time. He signs Redman to a backloaded deal that will only pay him $1.75 million plus a $500,000 signing bonus in 2003. Then, after the season, he cashes Redman in by trading him to another team. Redman's 2005 and 2006 salaries are still very reasonable and attractive in a trade for most teams, particularly if he has a good season in Oakland, which is a distinct possibility with their ballpark and their defense. Right now, Oakland's 2004 starting rotation looks amazing, as Neyer discussed in his ESPN.com column yesterday. Tim Hudson Barry Zito Mark Mulder Mark Redman Rich Harden If everyone sticks around for the length of their contracts, that would also be Oakland's rotation in 2005. In 2006, everyone but Hudson would be back. I guess I just don't buy the idea that they will have that same rotation (minus Hudson in 2006) for the next three years. If Harden becomes the pitcher many think he can be, they would be paying Redman over four million per year to be their fifth starter in 2005 and 2006. That's a luxury the Oakland A's can't seem to afford. Someone from that group will be gone in 2005, I would almost guarantee it. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, December 22, 2003
Sign #1,045,275 that Terry Ryan doesn't read this blogEarlier this month, after the departures of Eddie Guardado and Latroy Hawkins from Minnesota's bullpen, I spent an entire entry making the case for Arthur Rhodes as someone the Twins should sign as their new closer.I finished that entry, in which I showed how Rhodes has actually been a better pitcher than Guardado over the last three years, by saying the following: I am officially endorsing Arthur Rhodes as Minnesota's replacement for Eddie Guardado. He can do Guardado's job just fine and he can do it for less money. Sign Rhodes up for 2-3 years and take the money you saved and use it somewhere else (I hear second base is a giant, gaping abyss of uselessness). I only hope Terry Ryan or someone close to him is reading this, because I honestly think signing Rhodes could be the key to their off-season.Well, Rhodes signed a three-year deal for $9.2 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, it was not with the Minnesota Twins. So which team followed the advice I put forth for the Twins? Which team saw the value in Rhodes that other teams apparently didn't? Which team is going to get a great relief pitcher for just over $3 million a year? The Oakland A's of course, run by everyone's favorite GM, Billy Beane. As if Beane signing Rhodes for what I feel is a good price is not enough to make me cringe, there's more to the story. In that same entry about Rhodes, I said the following: There is also the issue of whether or not Rhodes can handle being a "closer." Personally, I think the majority of all that closer-talk is just that - talk. Sure, there may be players better suited for a pressure situation than others, but for the most part I think a great reliever will be a great reliever, whether you use him in the sixth inning or the ninth inning.Despite my telling you guys not to, many of you emailed me to tell me "that junk about Guardado being a 'proven closer' while Rhodes isn't." I even got some emails from people who said not only wasn't Rhodes a "proven closer," he has actually been asked to close in the past and been against the idea. I have no idea whether or not that was true at one point or if it is still true. What I do know about Arthur Rhodes and his interest in closing games is this... From The Oakland Tribune (before he signed): Arthur Rhodes is getting closer to joining the Oakland Athletics, and if he does, he'll get his long-awaited chance to be a closer.So, from that we learn that Rhodes has been waiting a long time to be a closer and that he "wants to be the closer." From MLB.com (after he signed): Rhodes will replace Keith Foulke, who led the American League with 43 saves in 2002, and become Oakland's fourth closer in as many seasons.I couldn't have said it better myself (although I tried). We now know that Rhodes wanted to be a closer and that his price was three years and $9.2 million. I applaud Billy Beane for making the move that I was praying the Twins would make and I applaud him for, once again, realizing that a "closer" is something that can be made. He did it with Jason Isringhausen a few years ago and now he'll do it with Arthur Rhodes. At the same time, I pray that Terry Ryan still has some sort of plan for the rest of this off-season, because Minnesota's pitching-staff is looking a little thin at the moment. Meanwhile, while Rome burns and Arthur Rhodes signs for $3 million a year, the Twins did something over the weekend that damn near made me cry: MINNEAPOLIS -- The Twins were able to avoid salary arbitration with one of their starting players Friday when Luis Rivas agreed to a one-year contract, according to the Associated Press.I know players who become arbitration eligible get substantial raises simply because that's how things work. That said, I also know that teams are not forced to give them those raises, simply because that's how the system works. In what universe does Luis Rivas deserve a "substantial raise"? I ask, because it certainly isn't this universe. Someone deserves a substantial raise when a) they are a good player or b) they have improved substantially. Luis Rivas meets neither of those qualifications, of course. YEAR AVG OBP SLG GPA EqA OPS+If you can look at those numbers and see either a) a good player or b) substantial improvement, you're a better man than I am. It absolutely kills me that the Twins have lost key players this off-season and have not been able to sign attractive free agents because of their limited budget. A budget that now includes: "Luis Rivas, 1,500,000." Obviously $1.5 million isn't a ton of money, even for a team like the Twins, but it's about half of what Arthur Rhodes will make this year. Of course, if you think that's bad, just wait until next year, when Rivas is once again in line for a "substantial raise." There was a time when Luis Rivas' meager contributions only handicapped the Twins on the field. That time is gone. Now he kills them offensively, defensively and monetarily. If Rivas posts his usual .310 OBP next year and then agrees to a $3 million-dollar deal during the off-season to avoid arbitration, my head may literally explode. As a great man once said, "It's getting to be ri-god-damn-diculous." I was recently interviewed by Rich Lederer of "Rich's Baseball Beat," who has been doing a series of interviews with various internet writers all off-season. The interview with me was published over the weekend. It's a long one (Gleeman-length, even) and Rich asks a lot of interesting questions. If you're a fan of this website you'll probably enjoy it quite a bit. An example of the type of serious, hard-hitting questions and responses you'll see: RWBB: Let's say you're putting together a team and you need a left fielder. Who would it be, Ted Williams or Barry Bonds?And there's plenty more where that came from. If you haven't had your fill of Gleeman yet today, head on over and check it out... Rich's Baseball Beat: Interview with Aaron Gleeman *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Ben Revere, CF 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Angel Morales, CF 5. Shooter Hunt, SP 6. Danny Valencia, 3B 7. Anthony Swarzak, SP 8. Tyler Robertson, SP 9. Jeff Manship, SP 10. Jose Mijares, RP 11. Chris Parmelee, RF 12. Kevin Mulvey, SP 13. Carlos Gutierrez, SP 14. David Bromberg, SP 15. Deolis Guerra, SP 16. Michael McCardell, SP 17. Luke Hughes, 3B 18. Robert Delaney, RP 19. Anthony Slama, SP 20. Steven Tolleson, SS 21. Joe Benson, CF 22. Alex Burnett, SP 23. Trevor Plouffe, SS 24. Deibinson Romero, 3B 25. Brian Duensing, SP 26. Rene Tosoni, RF 27. Dustin Martin, CF 28. David Winfree, RF 29. Jason Pridie, CF 30. Philip Humber, SP 31. Jonathan Waltenbury, 1B 32. Tyler Ladendorf, SS 33. Steve Singleton, 2B 34. Oswaldo Sosa, SP 35. Bobby Lanigan, SP 36. Reggie Williams, 2B 37. Daniel Ortiz, RF 38. Danny Rams, C 39. Dan Osterbrock, SP 40. Charles Nolte, RP |