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Friday, March 12, 2004

The Big Announcement

Remember that third "big" announcement I've been hinting at for a while now? Judging from the e-mails I've received on the subject, most of you are sick of waiting to hear about it. There's only so long one's ass can stand being tickled with a feather, I suppose.

The bad news is that I'm not quite ready to spill the beans on it yet. The good news is that I will be spilling all the beans (as well as other assorted vegetables) first thing Monday morning.

Also coming first thing Monday is my Top 50 Prospects of 2004 article, which is another thing many of you have told me you haven't enjoyed waiting for.

In the meantime, I apologize for the lack of a more interesting and lengthy entry for today. It is the end of mid-term week here at the U of MN, so I've been busy. In place of that, here is some suggested weekend reading...

First and foremost, my blog entries from earlier this week:

MON: Value Over Replacement
TUE: 2-3 Months and 17 Years
WED: The Twins take over ESPN.com
THU: Joe on Joe


Also, for those of you who can't wait for Monday's release of my Top 50 Prospects for 2004, you can check out my three-part review of the players who made my list last year:

Top 50 Prospects: A Year in Review (Part One: 31-50)
Top 50 Prospects: A Year in Review (Part Two: 11-30)
Top 50 Prospects: A Year in Review (Part Three: 1-10)


And finally, for the people who are just frankly sick of reading what I have to say, here is some good stuff to check out that is written by people other than me...

- Craig Burley's series on statistical evaluations of college players over at Batter's Box (Part One: Hitters and Part Two: Pitchers). The study is both interesting and groundbreaking, which makes it a must-read.

- Everyone's favorite replacement level Yankees blogger, Larry Mahnken, on Blind Faith and Derek Jeter.

- The group of All-Baseball.com bloggers are putting together roundtable discussions on each division. So far they've covered the AL West, the NL West, and my personal favorite, the AL Central. Sadly, they didn't ask me to chime in with my thoughts on the Twins (although there is a Twins fans in the group), but I actually found myself so engaged in the discussion that I kept wanting to say something to someone. That is a pretty good sign that it's a great read.

See ya Monday...


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Thursday, March 11, 2004

Joe on Joe

One of my favorite baseball writers, Joe Sheehan, wrote a column yesterday about one of my favorite baseball players, Joe Mauer.

Sheehan showed that only 28 catchers in baseball history who were 6'4" or taller totaled 200 or more plate appearances in the major leagues. Of those 28, there isn't a single guy you would call "great."

This is an issue because Joe Mauer is a catcher and he is 6'4".

Sheehan writes:
I just don't agree that Mauer is a future star behind the plate, and it has everything to do with his height. Mauer is listed at 6'4", and people that height or taller just don't have long, successful careers at the catching position.
It's an interesting point that Sheehan makes and certainly Mauer's height is worth looking at, but I just don't think it's all that significant. If we drop the magic cutoff number one inch - from 6'4" to 6'3" - we suddenly get a much bigger and better list of players.

Here are some notable 6'3" or taller catchers, along with how many times they made an All-Star team:
                         AS

Carlton Fisk 11
Bill Freehan 11
Mike Piazza 10
Ernie Lombardi 8
Walker Cooper 8
Lance Parrish 8
Sandy Alomar Jr. 6
Terry Kennedy 4
Tom Haller 3
Heck, the catcher Mauer is replacing in Minnesota is A.J. Pierzynski, who is 6'3" (and has one All-Star appearance).

Is the difference between 6'3" and 6'4" all that meaningful? Because he's an inch taller than them, does that make it much more unlikely for Mauer to do what all-time greats like Carlton Fisk, Bill Freehan, Mike Piazza and Ernie Lombardi did?

As Brian Gunn over at Redbird Nation points out:
The simple fact is that not many players are 6'4" at any position. Do you know how many second baseman were 6'4" and had over 200 plate appearances in the majors? Three -- Andy Fox, George Kelly, and 2B/guard/GM Danny Ainge. How about shortstops? Just two. One was Cal Ripken, but still, that's a pretty small class. How about third basemen? Only 17.

In fact, there have been just 159 non-pitchers who were 6'4" or taller and had 200 PA's in the bigs. The fact that only 28 were catchers just isn't that telling. (In fact, that's more catchers than you'd expect given the total pool of tall players.)
The limited number of tall position-players in baseball history is interesting to me. I suppose the amount of men in the world 6'4" or taller is relatively small, compared to the pool of men under 6'4". That in itself certainly goes a long way towards explaining the lack of tall hitters in major league history.

Beyond that, if you're 6'4" and above, I would think it's likely you would play another sport, specifically basketball, instead of baseball. That further limits the amount of tall hitters.

Brian mentioned Cal Ripken Jr., who was 6'4" and one of the greatest shortstops in baseball history. Prior to Ripken debuting in 1981, guess how many shortstops in baseball history with 200+ plate appearances were 6'4" or taller? Zero.

Breaking down the 6'4" or taller players with 200+ plate appearances by position:
Catcher             28

First Base/DH 62
Second Base 2
Shortstop 2
Third Base 9
Left Field 22
Center Field 8
Right Field 29
Judging from those numbers, the odds are probably against anyone 6'4" or over, at any position, having a successful major league career. And, like Brian said, tall catchers are more prevalent than you would expect, given the overall numbers.

Dropping the height cutoff from 6'4" to 6'3", here is what we get:
Catcher             78

First Base/DH 132
Second Base 5
Shortstop 14
Third Base 36
Left Field 54
Center Field 32
Right Field 63
Catchers move up even further on the list, trailing only first basemen/designated hitters in players at least 6'3".

I suppose it all comes down to how important you think an inch is (please, no sexual jokes, this is a serious subject!). Perhaps this is just the Twins fan in me talking, but when you say that Joe Mauer being 6'4" makes it unlikely he'll have a great career as a catcher and I look one inch down and see Hall of Fame catchers at 6'3", I have a hard time buying it.

That's no knock against Joe Sheehan, of course. His point is still valid and he is certainly entitled to his opinion on Mauer (and his opinion is definitely one to pay attention to).

Cal Ripken Jr. was a Hall of Famer at a position no one his height had ever played before. Joe Mauer is attempting to be a 6'4" Hall of Fame catcher, but at least he's got 28 (albeit not-so-great) tall guys who braved the waters before him.


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Wednesday, March 10, 2004

The Twins take over ESPN.com

I think I've figured out a pattern over at ESPN.com. Every other year, they devote a day's worth of feature articles to the Minnesota Twins.

Back in 2002, ESPN.com ran a whole smorgasbord of Twins articles in the middle of September. I even wrote about it. The Twins were on the cover of ESPN The Magazine and there were feature articles on "The Contraction Kids," the "League of Nations Infield," A.J Pierzynski and the Metrodome.

Then they skipped 2003 altogether.

And then yesterday it was the Twins' time to shine again. ESPN.com's front page featured multiple articles about the Twins, all under a big picture of Joe Mauer. I was really surprised to see it. Of course, when I checked back a few hours later, the Twins stuff was no longer on the front page, having been replaced by ESPN.com's 1,458,935th attempt at predicting the NCAA basketball tournament bracket.

After reading through all the Twins-related stuff on ESPN.com, I thought it might be interesting to go through it all and point out some of the more interesting parts.

Let's start with Peter Gammons' feature on Joe Mauer, entitled: "The Cornerstone."

The Great Gammo's opening paragraph:
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- He is this spring's man to see. Or in this case since Joe Mauer doesn't turn 21 until April 18, the phenom. There are other rookies around Florida who have already opened eyes -- Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, Dodger masher James Loney, Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels -- but none of them have stirred the spring conversation as much as the Twins catcher.
I know some people have problems with the way Gammons writes, but I have always been a huge fan. I mean, that's just good writing.

By the way, for those of you wondering, Sizemore, Loney and Hamels all make my Top 50 Prospects list for 2004, which is going public first thing Monday morning. And that Mauer kid is on the list somewhere too.
One assistant general manager smiled and said, "Mauer goes way beyond 'very impressive.' He's a star in the making." Two days later, another club's executive said, "it's hard to believe that we have two potential Hall of Famers in Mauer and Miguel Cabrera and they aren't old enough to buy beer." Actually, Cabrera will turn 21 one day before Mauer.
Whenever I see these "one assistant general manager says" quotes that appear all the time in columns written by all sorts of people, I start to wonder about them. I mean, what if the assistant general manager quoted there is actually Wayne Krivsky, the Twins' assistant GM? And what if the "another club's executive" who talks about Mauer and then brings up Miguel Cabrera is the GM of the Marlins or something?

I wonder why exactly Gammons couldn't put names on the quotes. It's not as if what they said is shocking or secretive. Plus, he quotes plenty of front office types by name all the time.
Joe Mauer is, indeed, special. He receives the ball like a Bob Boone, with great presentation and hands so soft he looks as if he could catch an egg thrown 90 miles an hour. He has a rocket arm (throwing out more than 50 percent of runners in the minors), but more important, for a 6-foot-4, 225-pound man, he has exceptionally quick feet, especially getting himself into position to throw.
I have seen Mauer play (he used to kick my high school's butt all the time), but I am really looking forward to seeing how he handles a major league pitching-staff on a regular basis. As good as his offense in the minors has been, the thing that most people who have watched him a lot rave about more than anything is his defense.
Having lost Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins and traded Pierzynski and Eric Milton, the Twins are in a transition using their very deep farm system. They have lost some talent, and with their revenues will lose more, but one thing is clear: for the next six to 10 years, they have a foundation, and that foundation is named Joe Mauer.
Sounds like Peter is already planning Mauer's exit. Does that mean he'll be signing with the Yankees in 2015? Perhaps by then we'll have a new ballpark and a few more AL Central division titles to hang in it. I'm looking forward to the Mauer-Santana battery for the next decade or so, that's for sure.

Okay, enough with the Gammons article. It's definitely worth reading in its entirety. Now let's move to Sean McAdam's "Twins peaks, valleys" article:
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins lost their two most important relievers to free agency and were forced to deal their best left-handed starter and starting catcher.
Oh, boy. For future reference, the above quote is a good way to get me on your bad side by using just one sentence. They "were forced to deal their best left-handed starter"? Unless the news somehow made it past me, Johan Santana is still in Minnesota.

Oh, I see, McAdam is referring to Eric Milton.

Here's the problem with that: Over the last two seasons, Johan Santana made 31 starts for the Twins. He went 18-6 with a 2.97 ERA in 185 innings. In 2003 alone, Santana was 11-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 18 starts.

And Eric Milton? Well, Eric Milton pitched a grand-total of 17 innings last year. In 2002, he was 13-9 with a 4.84 ERA in 171 innings.

I understand the need to make Minnesota's story interesting to the reader, but let's not get crazy here! I'm willing to pretend I never read that if McAdam promises not to bring it up again, so let's just move on...
Finding someone to take the important innings once pitched by setup man LaTroy Hawkins and closer Eddie Guardado won't be easy. Nor will it be simple to replace Eric Milton in the rotation or A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate.
Yes, certainly those 17 innings from Milton were crucial to Minnesota's division title last season. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Let's move a little further down in the article:
But [Twins GM Terry] Ryan dismisses out of hand the suggestion that the Twins have to pick and choose when to go for [the playoffs] and when to hang back and re-stock their team in anticipation of another window.

"It doesn't have to be like that," insists Ryan.
I agree 100% with Terry Ryan on this. There is absolutely no reason that a well-run ballclub in a bad division cannot consistently challenge for the post-season year after year. It won't be easy, but it is very doable. The key is knowing when to cut an expensive veteran loose and knowing which young players to rely on. Whether or not the Twins will be able to do it is, of course, an entirely different issue.

Ryan says it much better than I could:
"We're hoping to maintain," Ryan said. "Look at Oakland -- people thought they were going to disintegrate (after losing the likes of Jason Giambi), but they haven't. They've found a way (to reach the postseason four times in succession). We need our player-development people and our scouts to come through for us."
I'm fairly confident that 2004 will be Oakland's fifth straight trip to the playoffs. They obviously haven't had much success once they get there, but they are an example of a small-market team with sustained success.

I think the Twins can certainly follow suit and they actually have an easier time than Oakland, thanks to a much weaker division.

Next let's move on to Ed McGregor's piece on Joe Mauer from ESPN The Magazine. It is, in my opinion, the best of all these Twins-related ESPN articles.

Here's how it starts:
Joe Mauer slips through the netting and into the makeshift batting cage. Wearing a blue T-shirt, a pair of shorts and black Nikes, he sets up in an imaginary batter's box, cocks his black bat and locks in. Crack. There it is, the reason for all the fuss. Crack. Again and again. Each pure and powerful lefthanded stroke produces a startling sound that ricochets off the walls like a shotgun blast.

[...]

After uncoiling the last of what Molitor has called "one of the best swings I've ever seen," Joe steps out of the cage for his older brother, Jake. An infielder and fellow Twins farmhand, Jake was selected 676 spots behind top pick Joe in the 2001 draft. Stretching nearby is middle brother Bill, a righthanded pitcher and, believe it or not, another baby Twin. They all live together in Joe's condo in Fort Myers, Fla.
That's just an awesome opening paragraph by McGregor, whom I don't think I've ever read before.

Joe's brother Jake might have a future as the next Denny Hocking in a few years if he's lucky, but it's still a nice story. I don't know a whole lot about Bill at this point, but I guess it's not out of the question that the Mauer family could provide the Twins with 12% of their team in a few years, which would be interesting.
All three Mauer boys honed their swings with a device their father built to let them practice year-round, in the yard during the summer and in the basement during the Minnesota winter. He mounted PVC pipe on a pole held at the base by a coffee can full of cement. The idea was to feed a ball into the top of the sideways V-shaped pipe, then hit it as it dropped out the bottom. When the end of the pipe was turned straight down, the hitter couldn't see the ball until the last millisecond and had to rely on pure hand-eye coordination. "I loved hitting off that thing," says Joe.
You know, the Mauer family obviously has some serious athleticism, but there's something to be said for the role environment plays in an athlete's development. For instance, I was an only child and, like the Mauer boys, lived in St. Paul. While they were hitting all day and all night under their dad's supervision, I played catch in the front yard with my mom, until I started throwing too hard and she wouldn't play any more.

If I were born into the Mauer family, even with the genetics I have now, would I have turned into a good baseball player? Who knows, it might just have made the article read a little different...

"After Joe, Jake and Bill warmed up, their brother Aaron, the blacksheep of the family, fetched Gatorade for them."

Father Jake and his cousin, Jim, now sell a professional model of the homemade contraption for $79.95, at mauersquickswing.com. Each order comes with a slick video featuring Molitor explaining how it can help players of all ages develop a compact swing. But it's Joe's picture on the front of the box.
I've seen a commercial for that product and I believe Joe Mauer has a chance to be this generation's Fred McGriff. No, I'm not talking about his hitting, I'm talking about his ability to show up on infomercials on ESPN2 at 2:30 in the morning for the next 20 years.

The quotes I've used here are just a small part of McGregor's lengthy piece and I highly recommend reading the entire article.

ESPN's "One Day Only!" coverage of the Twins also included a column by Rob Neyer and another article looking at the Twins from a fantasy baseball perspective. Unfortunately, Neyer shifts his attention from the Twins to the Red Sox about 50 words into his piece and the fantasy article makes the same mistake I complained about here last month:
2004 TWINS

Possible Rotation
1. Johan Santana, LHP
2. Brad Radke, RHP
3. Joe Mays, RHP
4. Kyle Lohse, RHP
5. Grant Balfour, RHP

[...]

Their rotation can only get better as Santana, Mays and Lohse have another year under their belt.
For anyone who missed my frustrated rant on the subject a couple weeks ago, Joe Mays had Tommy John surgery and is out for most, if not all, of the 2004 season.

This is now about the 100th place I've seen Mays included in the starting rotation, so it's become less frustrating and more a form of entertainment and a hobby for me.

That's it for today, thanks for stopping by. And remember Twins fans, in another 15-20 months, there will be a whole net set of Twins articles for you to read on ESPN.com!


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Tuesday, March 09, 2004

2-3 Months and 17 Years

It is mid-term week here at the University of Minnesota, so my entries for the next several days may be less verbose and Gleeman-Length than usual. Many of you probably see that as a positive thing, so it'll be a nice change of pace.

With that said, let's hop right in...

2-3 Months

Gary Sheffield injured in his right thumb during a game last Saturday and word is that it could keep him out for 2-3 months if he needs surgery to repair a torn ligament.

This is no doubt a big blow to the Yankees. Losing a player the caliber of Gary Sheffield would hurt any team, and with Bernie Williams out for a little while after his emergency appendectomy, they are suddenly a little short-handed in the outfield. With that said, they're going to be just fine.

Williams' injury is nothing serious and he should be back shortly after the start of the season, at which point the Yankees, minus Sheffield, can still trot the following out:
LF   Bernie Williams

CF Kenny Lofton
RF Hideki Matsui
1B Travis Lee
DH Jason Giambi
I don't know for sure that Bernie would play left field and not, say, right field, but you get the point.

New York signed Travis Lee and Kenny Lofton this off-season and went into spring training with a ton of depth among outfielders and first basemen. Luckily for them, the two players who have gone down with injuries are both outfielders, meaning they can simply plug in their depth and keep on chugging along toward 100 wins.

As long as Sheffield is back for October, the Yankees will be just fine. That's the beauty of a Mo Vaughn-sized payroll. They have the ability to not only pay Sheffield $13 million a year, they can also pay Lee and Lofton about $5.5 million to be role players and insurance policies.

Incidentally, with this Sheffield injury, I noticed Yankee fans trying to act like fans of other teams when a big injury hits them. For instance, if a star player for a "normal" team goes down with a significant injury, fans start in with all that "the sky is falling" stuff. It's just what fans do.

Meanwhile, the Yankees could lose Sheffield for the entire season and I'd still bet your life savings on them making the playoffs without much trouble. And even if they were struggling to make the playoffs, don't you think they'd just go out and trade for a great replacement for Sheffield?

It's nice of Yankee fans to play along anyway. They need something to worry about too, I guess.

UPDATE: According to ESPN.com, Sheffield:

a) has a torn ligament
b) is not having surgery
c) is planning to "play through it."

This is very interesting, because it sounds (to my admittedly untrained ear) like something that could hamper his performance all season. My statement about the Yankees easily making the playoffs without him still stands, so I think he might be better off actually having the surgery, but who knows...

17 Years

After 17 years at the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Dan Barreiro resigned from his job as a sports columnist.

As a lifelong Minnesota resident, I've had the pleasure of reading Barreiro's work many, many times. Truth be told, I enjoy him much more on his daily radio show than I do in print, but I still enjoyed his columns quite a bit. I found him to be smart, funny, unafraid to state his opinion, and an excellent writer.

I've spent plenty of time criticizing sports writers from various media outlets on this blog, but I think it's also necessary to praise someone who does consistently good work like Barreiro did for so many years.

As he explains in his farewell column, Barreiro was often criticized because of his sarcastic humor and willingness to be negative. Those are, of course, the very things I value in a writer and the very things that made me enjoy Barreiro's work.

In the 19 months or so that I've written this blog, I've come to realize that criticism is simply part of the process. If you state an opinion, you are going to be criticized for it. That's just how it works. If Barreiro's "negativity" played a part in his resignation, that's a real shame. We need more good sports writers these days, and we just lost one.

I don't have much more to say on the subject, but in case Dan happens to stumble across this blog someday, I want to thank him for providing me with enjoyable columns to read and wish him luck with whatever he chooses to do in the future. I'll be listening to the radio show and looking for his byline somewhere in print.

Of course, as soon as I heard Barreiro was quitting his column and leaving the Star-Tribune, I contacted someone I know at the paper and said something like, "If you're looking for a bright, young, up-and-coming writer to replace Barreiro, I work cheap." Sadly, I haven't heard back. I am interested to see who they do replace him with.

Finally...

The boys over at Athletics Nation are trying to start up a little campaign to make Major League Baseball's Opening Day a national holiday.

Personally, it sounds like a good idea and I'm certainly all for anything that gives me another day off from school. I'm sure a few of you wouldn't mind an excused absence from work so you could go watch the first ballgame of the year either.

So head over to Athletics Nation and check out National Pastime Day, The Movement.


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Monday, March 08, 2004

Value Over Replacement

I was doing a little writing over the weekend and found myself over at Baseball Prospectus, checking out some Value Over Replacement Position (VORP) totals for 2003.

For those of you unfamiliar with it, VORP measures a player's value in runs over a "replacement level" player at the same position. For instance, Barry Bonds led baseball in VORP last year with 114.6, meaning he was 114.6 runs better than a replacement level left fielder would have been.

The VORP leaders and "trailers" last year looked like this:
HITTERS                  VORP          PITCHERS                 VORP

Barry Bonds 114.6 Esteban Loaiza 74.7
Albert Pujols 97.3 Pedro Martinez 71.9
Alex Rodriguez 86.3 Tim Hudson 69.5
Gary Sheffield 78.9 Jason Schmidt 69.3
Javy Lopez 75.9 Roy Halladay 66.8
Bret Boone 75.8 Mark Prior 64.1
Carlos Delgado 72.2 Kevin Brown 60.2
Manny Ramirez 69.2 Livan Hernandez 57.4
Marcus Giles 64.7 Javier Vazquez 54.7
Edgar Renteria 63.3 Kerry Wood 53.7

Matt Walbeck -13.8 Jay Powell -17.4
Ryan Christenson -13.9 Nick Bierbrodt -17.7
Brad Ausmus -17.9 Glendon Rusch -18.1
Jermaine Dye -20.6 Jeremy Bonderman -18.2
Brandon Phillips -21.2 Shawn Estes -19.8
After studying the numbers from last year and realizing VORP was one of my favorite stats for judging a player's performance, I started thinking about how I could use the theory of "Value Over Replacement" in other ways.

In honor of a new season of The Sopranos debuting on HBO last night, how about Value Over Replacement Show (VORS)?

I think many of us can agree that The Sopranos is the best television show around. That said, it often goes huge stretches of time without new episodes and, even when there is a new season, it only has a limited number of episodes. For instance, this new season will be just 13 shows long.

Then you've also got the re-run factor to consider. The Sopranos provides value even when it's not new, because HBO shows re-runs constantly. Meanwhile, a show like The Simpsons is on during its regular time each week (Sunday night) and then has a minimum of two re-runs shown per day in syndication. All of this has to be considered when trying to come up with a show's VORS.

Let's take a look now at the VORS leaders and trailers for various categories...
COMEDIES                      VORS

Seinfeld 111.4
Curb Your Enthusiasm 109.6
The Simpsons 95.2
Everybody Loves Raymond 82.9
Arrested Development 79.0
Chapelle's Show 75.1
Scrubs 65.4
Friends 60.6
The King of Queens 54.7
Saturday Night Live 49.4

The George Lopez Show -14.0
Hope & Faith -17.9
The Tracy Morgan Show -18.2
Good Morning, Miami -19.7
Whoopi -21.6
Seinfeld has been off the air for a few years now, but it is still providing a ton of value, thanks to never-ending re-runs. Here in Minnesota, it is on a minimum of three times per night and sometimes as many as 5-6 times, depending on how often TBS is running it. For a Seinfeld junkie like myself, that's somewhere between 20-35 episodes every single week, which racks up huge VORS.
Seinfeld baseball comparable: a mix of Babe Ruth and Jesse Orosco.

Curb Your Enthusiasm has the best "rate" stats of any comedy, but it is only on once per week and the seasons aren't very long. HBO does show it in re-runs, but not nearly as often as they show The Sopranos or some of their other shows.
Curb Your Enthusiasm baseball comparable: Pedro Martinez.

The Simpsons is on in re-runs almost as often as Seinfeld, but it's per-episode VORS isn't nearly as high. Also, it has declined quite a bit during recent years, while still remaining good.
The Simpsons baseball comparable: Roger Clemens.

Arrested Development is off to an incredible start and scores a huge per-episode VORS. It's a very new show though, so it remains to be seen if it can keep up the same pace in the future.
Arrested Development baseball comparable: Dontrelle Willis.

Friends was once among the league leaders, but has suffered massive declines in each of the past several seasons. The constant re-runs help bring the VORS total up, but each new episode absolutely destroys the show's overall numbers.
Friends baseball comparable: Ken Griffey Jr.

Once upon a time Saturday Night Live was one of the all-time greats, but it has been dropping like a rock in the past several seasons and is basically just "hanging on" at this point. The only reason it remains on the comedy leaderboard is because it built up such a huge amount of VORS in the show's early days. SNL continues to add small amounts to its career VORS total, but brings down all of its rate stats while doing so.
Saturday Night Live baseball comparable: Rickey Henderson.

DRAMAS                        VORS

The Sopranos 112.9
NYPD Blue 90.6
E.R. 88.4
Six Feet Under 78.2
The Wire 78.0
CSI 68.6
The O.C. 61.4
Third Watch 56.2
Law & Order 50.1
Las Vegas 40.8

K Street -2.5
JAG -5.1
The Practice -6.0
7th Heaven -15.9
Judging Amy -22.7
The Sopranos laps the field when it comes to per show performance and, fortunately, it picks up plenty of VORS on re-runs too. Whereas many shows have experienced drop-offs in performance after 3-4 seasons, The Sopranos seems to be getting better with age.
The Sopranos baseball comparable: Barry Bonds.

NYPD Blue is no longer at the top of its game, but it's on re-runs often and the new episodes are still solid. Same thing goes for E.R., which isn't as good as it used to be, but is still quite good and is shown a ton in re-runs every week.
NYPD Blue baseball comparable: Jason Giambi.
E.R. baseball comparable: Jim Thome.

Six Feet Under and The Wire are near the top of list on a per-show basis, but they are barely shown in re-runs. Meanwhile, The O.C. ranks 7th among dramas in its very first season.
Six Feet Under baseball comparable: Albert Pujols.
The Wire baseball comparable: Alex Rodriguez.
The O.C. baseball comparable: Brandon Webb.

Law & Order has been around so long that it cracks the top 10 despite not picking up big VORS totals in recent seasons. Various re-runs are on a minimum of 500 times per week and there are about 12 spin-offs of the original show.
Law & Order baseball comparable: Fred McGriff.

TALK SHOWS                    VORS

Tough Crowd w/ Colin Quinn 88.7
Jon Stewart 86.5
David Letterman 82.4
Howard Stern 72.0
Craig Kilborn 41.6
Jimmy Kimmel 40.1
Bill Maher 21.7
Conan O'Brien 11.4
Jerry Springer 1.6
Carson Daly 0.0

Jay Leno -10.5
The View -22.6
Oprah -22.7
Dr. Phil -28.9
Wayne Brady -40.1
Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn is at the top of this category thanks to having five new, quality shows per week. It's usually the best talk show (depending on who the panelists are), plus it's very dependable, plays every day and has plenty of re-runs each week.
Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn baseball comparable: Cal Ripken Jr.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart comes in a close second, thanks to a very high per-show performance and constant airings throughout each day and each week on Comedy Central. The Late Show with David Letterman checks in at #3 with a very strong per-show performance but no re-run VORS.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart baseball comparable: Manny Ramirez.
The Late Show with David Letterman baseball comparable: Jeff Bagwell.

Last Call with Carson Daly checks in at exactly 0.0 VORS, despite being on every night. Daly is, of course, the very definition of a replacement level talk show host, which proves the entire VORS system is working correctly.
Last Call with Carson Daly baseball comparable: Travis Lee.

The Tonight Show with Jay Leno checks in at -10.5 VORS, which is probably surprising to most. His new show each night is nearly unwatchable and re-runs of old shows are shown in the wee hours of the morning and remain unwatchable, despite absolutely nothing else being on against them.

Leno loses approximately 0.8 VORS for each time he begins a monologue joke with the phrase "Now, this is a true story..." He is, without a doubt, the most overrated talk show host in the history of mankind. Of course, I already ranted about this subject in some length last year.
The Tonight Show with Jay Leno baseball comparable: Joe Carter.

This year's Neifi Award for "An extraordinarily horrendous performance below and within replacement level" (as opposed to "above and beyond") goes to The Wayne Brady Show, which, prior to being canceled, pushed the limits of unwatchability like nothing since the XFL.

In case you're wondering, the early favorite for next year's Neifi Award is ESPN's Dream Job, which almost made me give up watching TV altogether after just one viewing.

VORS is simply the tip of the replacement level iceberg (incidentally, the one that sunk the Titanic is the leader in Value Over Replacement Iceberg, or VORI).

You can apply this same method of determining value for movies, cars, food, women, actors, actresses, bands, songs, pets, stand-up comics, politicians - the possibilities are literally endless.

Heck, you could probably use Value Over Replacement Blog (VORB) to rank all the baseball blogs, although Larry Mahnken's "Replacement Level Yankees Weblog" would surely rank much higher than the name suggests.


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