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Friday, March 19, 2004
Weekend ReadingNot much of an entry today. Sorry. I'm not quite sure what's going to happen with this blog in the near future because of my involvement at The Hardball Times. I suspect I will keep doing entries here, but they may be a little less frequent and a little less Gleeman-Length. Time will tell, I guess.For now, I have a brand new article up over at The Hardball Times. Click on the following link and just imagine you are reading it here, and it's basically no different than what you've been doing for months now, right? 6/$66 (by Aaron Gleeman) It's a look at Eric Chavez and the new $66 million contract he just signed with the A's. Also, here are my THT articles from earlier in the week, if you're looking for some weekend reading: The Top 50 Prospects of 2004 (1-25) The Top 50 Prospects of 2004 (26-50) The Top 50 Prospects of 2004 (Notes) Beyond the stuff I've written, there are also a ton of great articles by the other THT authors, which you can check out by clicking here. And then, if you're looking for even more stuff to read in-between basketball games this weekend, you can check out my blog entries from earlier in the week. Monday: Putting an end to all the ass tickling, once and for all Tuesday: Any Questions? Wednesday: 14 Cuts Thursday: NCAA Picks Incidentally, I started yesterday a perfect 8/8 on my NCAA tourney picks, nailing the Manhattan over Florida upset along the way. Sadly, that quickly went downhill during the night games. I finished the day 13-3, which sounds good, until you realize I had Michigan State in my Elite Eight. Just a friendly reminder, kids, the Big Ten stinks this year and me attending a Big Ten school apparently can't change that. Also, I hope everyone noticed what Syracuse guard Gerry McNamara did yesterday. As I've said here before, I'm a big believer in judging a basketball player not by how many points he scores, but his efficiency scoring them. In other words, scoring 20 points per game isn't all that great if you need 20 shots to do so. Well, McNamara went nuts yesterday. He took 17 shots and scored 43 points. No, that's not a misprint. He went 9-13 on three-pointers and 12-16 from the foul line. That's just sick. Think about that the next time Allen Iverson goes 8-23 and scores 20 points. Have a good weekend! *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, March 18, 2004
NCAA PicksI made my NCAA basketball tournament picks public last year and...well, I'm actually not sure how I did, because I don't have a whole lot to compare them to. I do know that I didn't win any of the pools I was in, so I must not have done that well.I correctly predicted nine of the Sweet Sixteen teams, which seems decent enough. I nailed five of Elite Eight teams, which actually seems pretty damn good. It gets kind of ugly when we get all the way to the Final Four, because I only got one right (Texas). The Longhorns were also my pick for national champs which, sadly, didn't quite happen. But I'm back again to see if I can do a little better this time around. So here now are my picks for the 2004 NCAA basketball tourney... First Round Winners (upsets in CAPS/bold): Kentucky St. Joe's Duke StanfordIt seems like I should have taken way more than five first-round upsets, but actually only eight lower-seeded teams won in the first round last year and there were only seven in 2002. I could always get a couple more upsets by going with some #9 seeds over #8 seeds because those are usually toss-up games, but I'll stick with what I've got. Sweet Sixteen (seed): Kentucky (1)Ah, there we go, some upsets! I'm going out on a limb and saying 11th-seeded Utah will not only knock out #6 Boston College in round one, they'll take down #3 Georgia Tech (a very trendy Final Four pick) in round two. And yes, I realize that's crazy, but I guarantee there will be one double-digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen, so why not Utah? I also have #7 Michigan State taking down #2 Gonzaga and #8 Texas Tech taking down Billy Packer's favorite team, St. Joseph's. Elite Eight (seed): Kentucky (1)A few more upsets. I'm not sure I really think UNC and Duke will meet, but I'm putting it down as my prediction just because that's the game I want to see. And yeah, two Big Ten teams in the Elite Eight (yes, I go to a Big Ten school, so what?!). Final Four (seed): Kentucky (1)If that prediction holds true, there will have been an all-ACC (Duke/UNC) and all-Big East (UCONN/Syracuse) matchup in the Elite Eight, which would be interesting. As you can see, I really think Wisconsin is a sleeper in this tourney. They got ripped off by getting the #6 seed, after going 12-4 in the Big Ten regular season (tied for second) and winning the Big Ten tournament (beating Illinois and Michigan State along the way). They finished #12 in RPI and #10 in both top-25 polls. I'm not sure how the hell that makes them a #6 seed... The Badgers always play great defense and they have some good size (Wilkerson, Morley) and enough scoring (Harris, Tucker) to win games that aren't just defensive battles. Devin Harris is one of the most underrated players in the country. Final Two (seed): Kentucky (1)And the National Champs? Drumroll please... Connecticut That's right, you heard it here first! Unless of course Emeka Okafor's back flares up, in which case this blog entry will self-destruct in 5...4...3...2...1 *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
14 CutsGood practice, kids. Now it's time for the easiest part of any coach's job. The cuts. Although I wasn't able to cut everyone I wanted, I have cut a lot of you. --- Homer Simpson, "Bart Star"According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, the Twins sent the following poor souls to the minors yesterday: Adam JohnsonNo huge surprises, obviously. The big decisions involving guys like Lew Ford, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Ryan and Jose Offerman have yet to be made. Among the cuts... Jason Bartlett is a guy I like quite a bit, if only because he represents essentially the only quality middle infielder in the system and is thus my only shot at not having to watch Luis Rivas play every day for the next decade. Adam Johnson and B.J. Garbe are a couple of former first round picks who look, as of right now, like major busts. They're still young enough to turn things around, of course. I very much doubt Garbe ever will, but I'm holding out hope that Johnson can be valuable once he moves full-time to the bullpen. The guy on the above list that I wish hadn't been cut is Mike Nakamura. The Twins' bullpen isn't the strongest in the world right now and I really think Nakamura could have done a very good job as a middle reliever. He had a 2.99 ERA in 78.1 innings at Triple-A last year and had a beautiful 95/28 strikeout/walk ratio. For Nakamura's minor league career, he has a 2.99 ERA in 421.2 innings, with 439 strikeouts and 129 walks. I would be shocked if he couldn't put up a 3.50-4.00 ERA in 60-80 innings if given the chance. But now he'll head back to Triple-A for the third straight year and hope for an injury or something, I guess. I also wish they'd have given more of a shot to Rob Bowen. With Joe Mauer on the team, Bowen doesn't figure very heavily into their long-term plans, despite being a 23 catcher, but I think he'd make a great backup to Mauer during the rest of the decade. The Twins seem committed to going with veteran no-bat Henry Blanco as their backup, which isn't the worst idea in the world. Who the backup catcher is on a team with a starter who is likely to play just about every day isn't a big deal and having a good defensive veteran around Mauer can only help. That said, Blanco can't hit worth a lick (.219/.295/.353 in 1,404 career PA) and Bowen is young and hit .285/.350/.456 betwen Double-A and Triple-A last year. In fact, now that I'm talking about Minnesota's roster, I might as well tell you which 25 guys I would keep to start the season. I'll say this now, before the Twins officially screw Lew Ford out of a job. C Joe MauerNo big surprises there. This is assuming I took over the team today, of course. If I had taken over a couple months ago, Rivas would clearly be somewhere else (they already signed him for way too much, so I can't get rid of him now) and Jacque Jones would probably be gone too. C Rob BowenYou'll notice a severe lack of Jose Offerman here. The Twins need an old, defensively-challenged pinch-hitter who can't actually hit like they need another Rivas. Lew Ford is a perfect 4th-outfielder, Nick Punto is a good utility guy, Michael Cuddyer can play all the corner spots and Michael Ryan gives Gardenhire a lefty off the bench. That's actually a damn good bench and they're very young too. At least two of those guys deserve to be starting somewhere. SP Johan SantanaThe big change here is that I would go with Grant Balfour instead of Rick Helling. Helling has proven he is mediocre (5.17 ERA last year, 4.77 ERA career), whereas Balfour has been great in the minors and may actually be good if you give him a chance. RP Joe NathanSo here's the deal. If you keep Nakamura on the team, then there is a choice to make. You can either keep Jesse Crain and risk losing a fairly good pitcher on waivers, or you can keep everyone and send Crain to Triple-A to start the season. I would keep Crain around. If he pitches like he showed he's capable of in the minors, he'll be a great setup-man for Joe Nathan and the Twins need that more than anything right now. By keeping Crain (and Nakamura), that leaves only one spot open for Brad Thomas or Sean Douglass. They are both relatively young (Douglass is 25, Thomas is 26) and out of options, which means if you don't keep them, you risk losing them. If I had to pick, I'd go with Douglass. I'd keep him around for mop-up/spot-start/long-relief duties, which is always needed. It's really a coin-flip choice over Thomas, but Douglass is younger and has had more success in recent years. I wouldn't argue with either one for the last spot. Of course, the Twins will keep Helling and Offerman and Blanco, so none of this is based in reality. That said, my general rule is that I prefer unproven young guys over crappy old guys any day of the week, but maybe that's why I'm writing about what I would do if I were running things. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, March 16, 2004
Any Questions?First of all, thanks to everyone who stopped by The Hardball Times yesterday, particularly those of you who e-mailed me. I appreciate all the kind words, comments, questions and suggestions. The traffic on the first day far surpassed anything we had hoped for.Oh, and if you have no idea what I'm talking about, you missed yesterday's big announcement. There is a whole new batch of articles posted at THT, including the second part of my Top 50 Prospects of 2004 article, covering prospects #1-25. If you missed the first part (#26-50), you'll want to check that out too. The Top 50 Prospects of 2004 (Part One: 26-50) The Top 50 Prospects of 2004 (Part Two: 1-25) After you're done reading those and the other good articles at THT, I would really love it if you'd e-mail me any prospect-related questions you might have. Specifically ones regarding guys on my top 50 list, but they can be about other prospects too. I'm planning a follow-up "mailbag" article, so you've got a good shot of having your question answered (not to mention seeing your name in print!) if you drop me a good e-mail. That's it here for today. Thanks for stopping by, thanks for checking out THT, and thanks for the e-mails. If you have any questions about anything, whether it's about this blog, prospects, The Hardball Times, what the best kind of toothpaste is, etc...please don't hesitate to e-mail me. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, March 15, 2004
Putting an end to all the ass tickling, once and for allWell, it's time to reveal my little secret.For the past several months, I've been working with a group of 11 other baseball writers on a new project. Today, the project goes live. The website is called The Hardball Times and you can find it at www.HardballTimes.com. 
THT will feature tons of new content each weekday, including articles, stats, graphs, a blog, and all sorts of other interesting stuff. There will be articles by Yours Truly, as well as work from: - Alex Belth - Craig Burley - Joe Dimino - Robert Dudek - Ben Jacobs - Vinay Kumar - Larry Mahnken - Matthew Namee - Bryan Smith - Studes - Steve Treder Everyone who reads this blog probably knows just about all of those guys pretty well. It's a great group of writers and I'm really excited about the whole thing. Our plan is to provide quality baseball writing that is intelligent, interesting, entertaining and, perhaps best of all, completely free of charge. The whole idea started way back in December. I was chatting with Matthew Namee (who happens to be Bill James' research assistant) and we talked about how we'd like to start up a new website, with a good group of writers. Slowly but surely, things started to move along. Now we're a couple weeks from Opening Day, and here we are! So, that's the short version of the story. Putting together something like this has been a lot harder than I imagined, but it's been worth it. I tried to make sure, first and foremost, that The Hardball Times was a site that I would enjoy going to on an everyday basis. I think we've accomplished that. Some of you may be wondering what is going to happen to this blog. To be honest, I'm not 100% sure. What I am sure of is that the blog will remain here and I will continuing writing on it. As for what type of writing and how often, I think I'll just have to see what happens. For now, I can assure you that there will be another entry here tomorrow. If you have any questions or comments about any of this, you know where to find me. In fact, I would love it if everyone would check out the new site, kick the tires a bit, and e-mail me with some comments/questions/suggestions. Oh, I almost forgot. My long-awaited Top 50 Prospects article is up and ready for mass consumption over at THT, along with several other good articles. See ya there... www.HardballTimes.com *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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