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Friday, April 09, 2004

At least no one got hurt

Well, the good news is that the Twins (as far as I know) didn't have to put anyone on the disabled list following yesterday afternoon's loss to the unbeaten, first-place Detroit Tigers (yeah, you heard me).

This a very dangerous stretch of games for the Twins. They are the walking wounded, yet they are playing a relatively easy portion of their schedule. If they find themselves dropping these games for the rest of the month -- something that is understandable with all the injuries -- they are really going to be in trouble once they get to the tougher stretches in May.

Today's day off comes at a great time, as the bullpen is quite clearly just worn out. They need Brad Radke to step up with a big game on Saturday and they need Johan Santana to make it through Sunday's game healthy and effective.

UPDATE: On Thursday, I said:

Any of the other 29 teams can claim [Mike] Nakamura off waivers, and I expect that to happen, as his minor league numbers are extremely impressive. In fact, I'll be shocked if the Twins don't lose him (getting even more specific, I'd say there's a 50/50 chance the Blue Jays are the team that claims him).

And today, the Blue Jays did indeed claim Nakamura. I hate it when I'm right. Now, in addition to all the injuries, the Twins just lost a perfectly good relief pitcher for no good reason.

Hopefully you guys have all been heading over to The Hardball Times every day to read my stuff. In case you haven't (why not?!) here are my articles from this week:

Monday: THT Staff Predictions
Wednesday: Hardball Questions: Kevin Cattoor
Thursday: Magic Closer Dust
Friday: Taking A Walk

Today's picks:
Chicago (Garland) +200 over New York (Contreras)
Baltimore (Ponson) -140 over Tampa Bay (Hendrickson)
Oakland (Redman) -125 over Seattle (Franklin)

Total to date: $525
W/L record: 9-8 (1-1 yesterday for +60 with one "no action," thanks to Scott Erickson missing his start for the Mets.)

*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****

Thursday, April 08, 2004

When it rains, it pours

Injuries. They'll kill you every time.

In Tuesday night's game, the Twins lost Joe Mauer, Johan Santana and Torii Hunter to injuries. Hunter and Santana sound as though they will be okay (although Hunter didn't play last night and may have to go on the DL), but Mauer tore cartilage in his left knee. He will need surgery to repair it and will likely be out for about a month.

Obviously, losing Mauer really stinks. Not only is he a huge key to the Twins' season, he is a rookie who everyone has incredibly high hopes for, and he was off to an amazing start (.750/.833/.750 in six plate appearances).

When I heard Mauer was out for a month (you should have seen how many e-mails and instant messages I got yesterday afternoon!), I tried to remain calm. I told myself it wasn't such a huge deal, as long as the injury wasn't serious, because Matthew LeCroy could slide from designated hitter to catcher, and Michael Cuddyer could replace LeCroy at DH.

As I wrote yesterday afternoon over at THT Live, "A catcher/DH combo of LeCroy/Cuddyer is not much of an offensive dropoff from Mauer/LeCroy and it actually might be a little better."

Then yesterday's game started and, sure enough, Matthew LeCroy was behind the plate. The injury bug soon bit him too, as he had to leave the game with what was immediately called a "rib cage injury."

Turns out, LeCroy has a "strained oblique," which is bad enough that the Twins immediately placed him on the disabled list. So, in the span of about 24 hours, the Twins lost their starting catcher and the guy who was going to step in and replace him.

Now, they are left with Henry Blanco, a career .219/.295/.353 hitter in 1,404 plate appearances, and a 23-year-old rookie named Rob Bowen, who will hastily be called up from the minors. Suddenly, I'm not so calm about all these injuries.

We are three games into the season and the Twins are without their starting catcher and their starting DH, their best starting pitcher has a spastic forearm, and their center fielder has leg problems.

As if all that weren't enough, I'm pretty sure they are going to end up a losing Mike Nakamura, a relief pitcher I've spoken highly of several times, to waivers.

With all the innings the bullpen pitched in the first two games, the Twins felt it was so important to call Seth Greisinger up from Triple-A that they cleared a spot for him on the 40-man roster by designating Nakamura for assignment.

That means any of the other 29 teams can claim Nakamura off waivers, and I expect that to happen, as his minor league numbers are extremely impressive. In fact, I'll be shocked if the Twins don't lose him (getting even more specific, I'd say there's a 50/50 chance the Blue Jays are the team that claims him).

You know the old sports cliche people say when something bad happens to their team -- "If you'd have told me at the beginning of the year that the Twins would be 2-1 right now, I'd take it"? Well, that's BS. I'd take 0-3, some healthy players, and Mike Nakamura.

Anyone out there have the power to make that happen for me?

Today's picks:
Cincinnati (Acevedo) +160 over Chicago (Clement)
Montreal (Ohka) +150 over Florida (Willis)
Atlanta (Thomson) -160 over New York (Erickson)

Total to date: $465
W/L record: 8-7 (3-3 yesterday for +110, thanks to a nice +210 on Colby Lewis over Barry Zito.)

*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****

Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Winning Painfully

The Twins had yet another come-from-behind, extra-inning win last night, defeating the Indians 7-6 in 15 innings. Any win is a good win, but last night's game was not particularly enjoyable for a number of reasons:

1) The game was not on TV (more on this in a second).

2) Joe Mauer hurt his knee in the third inning and left the game.

3) Johan Santana hurt his left forearm and left the game after four innings.

4) Torii Hunter hurt his right hamstring in the 11th inning and left the game.

5) After using five relievers for a total of five innings in their first game, the Twins used seven relievers for 10 innings last night.

Those five things, taken together, are an example of winning the battle while losing the war, I suppose.

In particular, the combination of injuries to Santana and Mauer is really depressing. Last night's game was to be the first of about...oh, I dunno, let's say 300 games of the Joe Mauer-Johan Santana battery. The best catching prospect in the world and one of the brightest young pitchers around, teaming up for the very first time. It lasted a total of three innings.

I am most concerned about Santana. He apparently was experiencing muscle spasms in his left forearm, which sounds really scary to me. At the end of last year, Santana had problems with cramping in his legs and he spent much of last season fighting through bone chips in his elbow, which he had removed during the off-season. And now he's got a spastic forearm.

Not much to do or say, except to wait and see. The early word is that Mauer's injury and Hunter's injury are fairly minor, but knee injuries to catchers are worrisome and hamstrings can be lingering problems. Meanwhile, I'd be shocked if Santana was ready to go for his next start, but I obviously don't know enough to make that anything beyond a wild guess based on little, if anything.

With a history of leg-cramping, a surgically-repaired elbow and a forearm that is going nuts, there's no doubt that Santana is going to seem like a ticking time-bomb to myself and most Twins fans all year.

That is, of course, if we ever get to see him pitch. As I mentioned above, last night's game was not on TV. And today's game won't be either.

The Twins started a new TV channel, Victory Sports, and have yet to negotiate deals with the major cable and satellite providers locally. That means most Twins fans are without the ability to watch their team play, even if they're like me, and they have DirecTV with the MLB Extra Innings package (how ironic is it that I can watch the Tigers, Pirates or Brewers 100 times each, if I want, but I can't see my beloved Twinkies?).

There is nothing worse than listening to a 15-inning game on radio, while three of your team's star players go down with injuries and the bullpen gets completely used up. Well, I guess there's one thing worse: doing all that and then losing the game.

For the Twins fans out there who feel my pain, you'll want to head over to The Hardball Times, where there is an interview I did with Victory Sports president Kevin Cattoor posted.

Here's the link:

Hardball Questions: Kevin Cattoor

Today's picks:
Philadelphia (Wolf) -150 over Pittsburgh (Benson)
New York (Trachsel) +150 over Atlanta (Hampton)
San Francisco (Williams) +175 over Houston (Clemens)
Colorado (Jennings) +170 over Arizona (Webb)
Chicago (Loaiza) -115 over Kansas City (May)
Texas (Lewis) +210 over Oakland (Zito)

Total to date: $355
W/L record: 5-4 (1-0 yesterday for +100, hopping on the Schilling bandwagon early.)

*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****

Tuesday, April 06, 2004

0-1 1-0

I watched the first Twins game of the year last night and, unfortunately, it sounds like it might be one of the few Twins games I am able to watch for a while. The Twins' new TV channel, Victory Sports, is still in contract disputes with the major cable and satellite providers here.

As it stands now, I'll only be able to watch about 25 of the Twins' 162 games this year, despite having cable at my dorm room and DirecTV with the MLB Extra Innings at my mom's house.

So I might not be able to do this often, but here are some notes on the Twins game last night...

The Metrodome has brand new turf this year and it is getting some rave reviews from the players. I don't know how it plays or feels, but I can say without hesitation that it looks about 1,000 times better than the old stuff.

With the new turf, the thing they're playing the game on actually looks not totally unlike a baseball field, which is a new experience for the Twins. It sort of looks like real grass, there's stuff that looks like dirt, and the color is actually green, instead of the faded blue/green stuff with all the worn out spots and seams popping up that they had before.

As for the actual game, they didn't play very well for the first seven innings and were down 4-0 when C.C. Sabathia exited the game after 104 pitches of 2-hit ball. Then Cleveland went to the bullpen and suddenly the bats came alive.

Minnesota's 8th inning went like this:

- Walk
- Single
- Ground Out
- Single
- Single
- Double
- Single
- Strikeout
- Strikeout

At the end of that, the game was tied 4-4.

Brad Radke left after six shaky innings and, amazingly, five relievers combined for five scoreless innings, as the game went into the bottom of the 11th tied at four.

What happened then was a thing of beauty. Jacque Jones struck out to start the inning (more on him in a second). Then Matthew LeCroy walked, and was pinch-run for by Nick Punto. Joe Mauer hit a line drive single to right field, putting runners on the corners with one out.

Cristian Guzman came up with a chance to be the hero and, of course, struck out. Shannon Stewart stepped to the plate with two down in the inning and showed him how it's done, yanking a Chad Durbin offering into the seats in left field. Just like that, 7-4 Twins, and the ballgame is over.

If I can't watch the Twins for a while, I guess it was good to see such a great game. You know, so I can remember the good times while I track their progress on whatever internet scoreboard is doing a decent job of tracking the game that night.

Before being the hero, Shannon Stewart started the season with a single up the middle in the bottom of the first and it looked like they'd be able to get something going right away. Luis Rivas came up to the plate and promptly grounded into a double play.

And then, wouldn't you know it, Doug Mientkiewicz came up next and hit a double into the right-field corner, which would have scored Stewart from first.

As anyone who reads this blog knows, I am perhaps the world's biggest Luis Rivas basher. I cannot, for the life of me, understand batting Luis Rivas second in the lineup.

The most obvious reason is that he is one of the team's worst hitters. He doesn't hit for a high average, he doesn't get on base and he doesn't hit for power. It's just common sense that you'd bat someone like that -- a lifetime .263/.312/.377 hitter -- as far away from the top of the lineup as you possibly can.

Of course, Ron Gardenhire is probably of the school of "thought" that speedy infielders should bat #2. And, if Rivas is anything, he's a speedy infielder. At the same time, he does something that very few speedy infielders do, which is ground into an incredible amount of double plays.

I'm not just talking about the one last night. Rivas grounded into 20 double plays in 475 at bats last season and has grounded into a total of 49 DPs in 1,412 career at bats.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Rivas had 105 "double play opportunities" last season and grounded into one in 21.0% of them . That was "good" for third-worst in all of the American League, behind a couple of sluggers, Magglio Ordonez (21.2%) and Paul Konerko (28.0%).

One of the things you always hear from the Twins in talking about Shannon Stewart is how he is a great leadoff man, capable of working counts and getting on base at the top of the lineup. This is very true, as Stewart's OBPs last year (.364) and during his entire career (.368) are very good.

So you've got this good leadoff man who gets on base at a very nice clip and you fill the spot immediately after him with a horrible hitter who grounds into a ton of double plays?

It is stuff like this that makes it very frustrating to be a Twins fan sometimes. I can understand playing Luis Rivas every day. I don't agree with it, certainly, but I can at least understand it on some level. Playing him everyday and batting him near the top of the lineup, directly behind a guy who is going to be standing on first base a lot, is almost more than I can stand.

Geez, this started off as a "notes" column and ended up as a huge anti-Rivas rant. Oh well. Back to the notes...

Joe Mauer looked very good last night. He finished the night 2-3 with two walks and two singles, and all five of his plate appearances were excellent. Mauer showed incredible discipline at the plate, save for one bad swing on a low breaking ball that he struck out on.

Mauer saw 20 pitches in his first four plate appearances, laying off all but one borderline pitch. After falling behind 1-2 to Jose Jimenez in the bottom of the 9th, he smacked a single up the middle. Then in the 11th, after being patient all night, he took ball one and then ripped a single into right field.

He looked about as good as a not-quite 21-year-old rookie in his first major league game could possibly have looked. I'm about as high on Mauer as anyone, but even I was impressed and pleasantly surprised.

While Mauer looked great, Brad Radke looked pretty bad. He has always relied on his ability to throw strikes and keep hitters off balance. He was throwing strikes last night, but no one was off-balance, and the result was three solo home runs in six innings.

He was able to go six innings while not totally imploding though, which is part of the reason why the Twins were able to come back and win. I didn't think any of the five relievers looked particularly great, but they certainly got the job done. Combined: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 SO, 0 BB.

While watching C.C. Sabathia shut the Twins down for seven innings, I remembered exactly how maddening it is watching Jacque Jones flail away against left-handed pitching on a regular basis.

Jones has never hit left-handed pitching and, as a corner outfielder, he simply should not be in the lineup against them. I've heard people point out Jones' batting average against lefties last year as a sign that he's improving against them and a reason why he should be in the lineup against them.

This is one of those instances where batting average just doesn't do the job. Jones did hit .269 against lefties last year, and that's not bad, but he also had a total of six walks (and 41 strikeouts) in 154 plate appearances against southpaws, which resulted in a horrible .310 on-base percentage. He didn't have any power either, hitting just two homers and 12 doubles, for a paltry .393 slugging percentage.

And those numbers -- .269/.310/.393 -- are actually an improvement over what he's done in the past. Over the last three years combined -- which includes last year's numbers -- Jones has hit just .231/.274/.336 against lefties.

That's just not a hitter who should in the lineup when someone like Sabathia is on the mound. Especially considering the Twins have someone like Michael Cuddyer on the bench, capable of replacing Jones in right field for a game or two a week.

The AL Central teams have a ton of left-handed starting pitching this season, from Kansas City's lefty-dominated rotation, to Sabathia and Cliff Lee in Cleveland and Mark Buehrle in Chicago. If Ron Gardenhire once again chooses to stick Jones in the lineup against all those lefties the Twins are going to be at a supreme disadvantage.

Playing someone who can't hit lefties is one thing. Playing them when you've got a young, right-handed slugger sitting on the bench, desperate for playing time...well, it goes along with batting Rivas #2 on my list of stuff to complain about.

Of course, leaving Cuddyer on the bench worked out okay last night. Gardenhire (thankfully) pinch-hit for Rivas in the 8th, bringing left-handed hitting Michael Ryan to the plate. Cleveland countered by bringing in a lefty from the bullpen, so Gardenhire pulled Ryan back and sent Cuddyer up. Cuddyer hit a 2-run single up the middle to start the scoring.

One thing I was really glad to see was that Gardenhire left Cuddyer at second base for the rest of the game. I would have bet money on Nick Punto playing there after Rivas was yanked, but Gardenhire surprised me. Cuddyer almost blew an easy ground ball, but he also made an amazing cutoff throw to nail Matt Lawton at the plate.

Maybe Gardenhire won't start Cuddyer in right field in place of Jones when lefties are pitching, but now we know he'll let him play second base. That means we are just one step away from the starting lineup reading: Cuddyer, 2B.

Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

Today's picks:
Boston (Schilling) -200 over Baltimore (DuBose)

Total to date: $255
W/L record: 4-4 (3-3 yesterday for +145, including a nice +220 on the Brewers.)

*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****

Monday, April 05, 2004

The smiles are returning to the faces

"Here Comes the Sun"

Little darling, it's been a long, long lonely winter
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say, it's alright

Little darling, the smiles are returning to the faces
Little darling, it seems like years since they've been there
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say, it's alright

Little darling, mmmmmm, I see the ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear
There goes the sun
Here comes the sun
And I say, it's alright

Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun
And I say, it's alright
It's alright
It's alright

OPENING DAY IS HERE! ("It seems like years since it's been here")

Enjoy the smorgasbord of baseball games today. Barring the creation of a national holiday that involves a nude Jessica Alba spending 24 hours in a room alone with guys named Aaron who live in Minnesota and have baseball blogs, Opening Day is my favorite day of the year.

Because everyone's doing it and I might as well get in on the action too, here are my predictions for 2004:

American League East:
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox (Wild Card)
3) Toronto Blue Jays
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

American League Central:
1) Minnesota Twins
2) Kansas City Royals
3) Chicago White Sox
4) Cleveland Indians
5) Detroit Tigers

American League West:
1) Oakland A's
2) Anaheim Angels
3) Seattle Mariners
4) Texas Rangers

National League East:
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Atlanta Braves
3) Florida Marlins
4) New York Mets
5) Montreal Expos

National League Central:
1) Chicago Cubs
2) Houston Astros (Wild Card)
3) St. Louis Cardinals
4) Cincinnati Reds
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Milwaukee Brewers

National League West:
1) San Diego Padres
2) San Francisco Giants
3) Los Angeles Dodgers
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Colorado Rockies

Individual Awards:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Barry Bonds
AL CY: Johan Santana
NL CY: Randy Johnson
AL ROY: Bobby Crosby
NL ROY: Ryan Wagner
AL MOY: Ron Gardenhire
NL MOY: Bruce Bochy

American League Playoffs:
New York over Minnesota
Boston over Oakland
Boston over New York

National League Playoffs:
Philadelphia over Houston
Chicago over San Diego
Chicago over Philadelphia

World Series:
Boston over Chicago

And, for good measure, 75 random predictions for 2004:

1) Joe Mauer will have a higher on-base percentage than A.J. Pierzynski.

2) Despite moving to first base, Darin Erstad will hit no better than he has in center field.

3) Bobby Crosby's OPS will be within 10% of Miguel Tejada's.

4) Francisco Rodriguez will lead American League relievers in strikeouts.

5) Richie Sexson will lead the National League in home runs.

6) Randy Johnson will win at least 17 games and lead the NL in strikeouts.

7) John Kruk will make the ears of a baseball-watching nation bleed profusely.

8) Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling will win more games than any other pair of teammates.

9) Bill Mueller will once again hit .300.

10) Derrek Lee will be among the top 10 in the NL in home runs and RBIs.

11) Esteban Loaiza will be closer to the 2003 version than the 1995-2002 version.

12) D'Angelo Jimenez will be one the top five second basemen in the National League.

13) Ken Griffey Jr. will not stay healthy.

14) Adam Dunn will hit 40+ home runs.

15) Brandon Larson will be one of the top 10 offensive third basemen in baseball.

16) Danny Graves will lose his closer job by mid-season.

17) The media will make a big deal out of one or two players not being selected for the All-Star game and no one will care three days later.

18) Travis Hafner will be one of the top 10 offensive first basemen/designated hitters in the American League.

19) Victor Martinez will be among the top five offensive catchers in the American League.

20) Cliff Lee will be Cleveland's best starting pitcher.

21) Aaron Miles will hit .300 for the Rockies.

22) Joe Morgan will acknowledge the true author of Moneyball...Paul DePodesta.

23) Jason Kendall will be traded to a contender.

24) Hee Seop Choi will be among the top five in the NL in walks.

25) Josh Beckett will strikeout 200+ batters.

26) Armando Benitez will save 35+ games.

27) Jeff Kent will drive in 120+ runs.

28) Ichiro! will win the AL batting title.

29) Juan Gonzalez will drive in 100+ runs.

30) Carlos Beltran will finish in the top five for AL MVP and will not be traded.

31) Jeremy Affeldt will lead the Royals in wins.

32) Derek Jeter will finish among the top five AL MVP vote-getters.

33) Jeff Weaver will shave at least 30% off his 2003 ERA.

34) Eric Gagne will blow a save.

35) The Dodgers will score at least 100 more runs than they did last season.

36) Neither Cristian Guzman or Luis Rivas will post an OBP above league-average.

37) Johan Santana will lead all American League, non-Boston pitchers in strikeouts.

38) Nick Johnson will finish among the top 10 in the NL in walks and on-base percentage.

39) Tony Batista will hit more home runs than he has walks and the sum of his OBP plus his RBIs will not equal 400.

40) Mike Cameron will be one of the top five offensive center fielders in baseball and will win a Gold Glove.

41) Mike Piazza will drive in 100+ runs.

42) Jason Giambi will be one of the top 10 offensive players in baseball.

43) Hideki Matsui's OPS will rise at least 20% from 2003.

44) Derek Jeter will lead the AL in runs scored.

45) Jose Contreras will win 15+ games.

46) Arthur Rhodes will save 35+ games.

47) Bobby Kielty will have an OBP of at least .370.

48) Jermaine Dye will nearly double his OPS from 2003.

49) Erubiel Durazo will add 100 points to his slugging percentage from 2003.

50) Kaz Matsui will not win NL Rookie of the Year.

51) Pat Burrell's OPS will rise by at least 30%.

52) Eric Milton will not make 30 starts and will be out-pitched by Carlos Silva.

53) Jason Bay will be one of the three best offensive rookies in baseball.

54) The Padres will improve their win total by more than any other team in baseball.

55) Sean Burroughs will be one of the top five offensive third basemen in baseball.

56) Jake Peavy will win 15+ games.

57) So will David Wells.

58) Barry Bonds will hit more home runs than he did in 2003.

59) Reggie Sanders will drive in 100+ runs.

60) The Yankees will trade for a second baseman who has been an All-Star at least twice.

61) Alfonso Soriano will join the 40/40 Club.

62) Mark Texeira will be among the top 10 in the AL in homers.

63) Hank Blalock will be among the top five in the AL in batting average.

64) Javier Vazquez will lead the AL in wins.

65) Brandon Webb will once again be better than Dontrelle Willis.

66) Johnny Damon will cut his hair and shave.

67) Mark Prior will be the best pitcher in baseball during the second-half of the season.

68) Carl Crawford will steal more bases than the Blue Jays and A's.

69) Jeremy Bonderman will be Detroit's best pitcher.

70) Octavio Dotel will save 35+ games.

71) Geoff Jenkins will get hurt.

72) Doug Mientkiewicz will have an OBP above .400.

73) Shannon Stewart will not get a single vote for AL MVP.

74) Eric Chavez will improve significantly against left-handed pitching.

75) Alex Rodriguez will have an amazing season, and people will say he doesn't deserve the MVP because the Yankees are too talented and good.

Today's picks:
Cincinnati (Lidle) +180 over Chicago (Wood)
Milwaukee (Sheets) +220 over St. Louis (Morris)
San Francisco (Rueter) +180 over Houston (Oswalt)
San Diego (Lawrence) +105 over Los Angeles (Nomo)
Philadelphia (Millwood) -160 over Pittsburgh (Wells)
Cleveland (Sabathia) +130 over Minnesota (Radke)

Total to date: $110
W/L record: 1-1

*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****

E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com

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