AaronGleeman.com
AaronGleeman.com
Friday, May 07, 2004

Breaking News: Twins back on TV

The Minnesota Twins have reached an agreement on an eight-year contract with FOX Sports Net to televise their games, starting with tomorrow's contest against the Oakland A's.

This apparently puts an end to the very short existence of Victory Sports, the Twins' fledging TV channel that had not been able to reach deals with cable and satellite providers.

The good news is that the Twins will be on TV immediately and for the next eight years. The bad or, perhaps more accurately, strange news, is that Twins fans have seemingly missed the first month of the season for nothing.

The Twins were on FOX Sports Net last season and they are now back on FOX Sports Net this season. In the meantime, the team failed miserably with the launch of their own TV network and managed to anger a substantial portion of their fan base.

In light of this news, my interview with Victory Sports president Kevin Cattoor last month may interest some of you.

- Hardball Questions: Kevin Cattoor

Cattoor had some very harsh words for FOX Sports Net, whom the Twins are once again partners with. Here's one exchange:
THT: Do you feel FOX Sports Net has had anything to do with the problems in the negotiations with the major outlets?

Cattoor: They are owned by the same company as DirecTV. They have stalled talks with us because of that.

As to the other providers, we know that they have told many operators that the Twins will be back on FSN. They will not. FSN has made offers to us back as far as 2002. We recently rejected their last offer earlier this year. Victory is too far down the line and it's the right thing for the Twins organization to do.

FSN was the only regional network in the market. They were a monopoly and we believe they behaved like it. They didn't come to the table with a fair deal. Our previous deal put the Twins in the bottom five teams in MLB for television revenue, so we needed to establish Victory as another alternative in the market. Victory will be good for sports fans and other teams in the market because now we have competition and more sports programming will come from that, which is a win for upper Midwest sports fans.
That interview, and those emphatic statements, are from exactly one month ago.


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


No Friends, plenty of WSOP, and no Spider-Man

Those of you who have been long-time readers of the this blog, perhaps all the way back to August of 2002, no doubt know plenty about what type of guy I am. You've read my opinions on any number of non-baseball topics, you've heard my various stories of life at college, and you've been introduced to some of the people in my life.

For those of you who are new here, you may not know as much about me. It is for you that I want to show just what sort of guy I am.

Last night, the Friends series finale aired on NBC. It was an hour long and it started at 8 p.m. my time. Millions and millions of people watched. And me? I was over at ESPN, watching repeats of the 2003 World Series of Poker that I've already seen a minimum of five times. During commercials, you wanna know what I watched? No, not Friends. NBA basketball.

So that, in short, is who I am. The final episode of one of the most-watched shows in television history? Nah. Old WSOP episodes? Hell yeah!

I planned to do a long rant about the whole Spider-Man on the bases thing, but thankfully MLB pulled the plug on that trainwreck of an idea before I could complain too much about it. My prediction is that we'll be seeing that sort of thing -- ads on the field, on the uniforms, on the hats -- on a regular basis in a short time anyway. It's inevitable, and it sucks.

To me, the amazing thing is not that this whole Spider-Man plan was agreed upon. I don't put anything past Selig and Company. No, the crazy thing about it is that MLB was reportedly set to do it for somewhere between $2.5 and $3.5 million. Can you imagine Major League Baseball doing something this dumb for less than Fernando Vina is making this year? Unreal.

My favorite quote from this whole mess? Courtesy of, who else, Bud Selig: "I'm a traditionalist," Selig said. "The problem in sports marketing, particularly in baseball, is you're always walking a very sensitive line. Nobody loves tradition and history as much as I do."

New divisional alignments, the Wild Card, inter-league play, All-Star games for homefield advantage in the World Series, Opening Day on other continents, Spider-Man logos on the bases... yeah Bud, you're one helluva traditionalist.

Finally, here's a little weekend reading...

First, my articles over at The Hardball Times:

- Making The Leap
- Adam Dunn: A True (Outcomes) Hero
- News, Notes and Quotes (May 3, 2004)


When you're done with those, here's a good blog to check out:

Always Amazin'
A great New York Mets blog on NJ.com (the website for a whole bunch of New Jersey newspapers), written by Jason Mastaitis. I'm not even particularly interested in the Mets, but I make sure to check it out every day. Well written, interesting, entertaining, informative, funny -- just about everything you could ask for in a blog, especially one for a regular media outlet.

It's great to see more and more of these local media outlets hiring up the good baseball bloggers. Yours Truly remains available and eminently hirable. Heck, since my beloved Twins aren't even on TV here, I'm free to obsess and write about any of the other 29 teams in the league!

Today's picks:
Colorado (Estes) +210 over Chicago (Zambrano)
San Francisco (Rueter) +110 over Cincinnati (Lidle)
San Diego (Peavy) -100 over Florida (Pavano)
Detroit (Bonderman) +150 over Texas (Benoit)
New York (Lieber) -135 over Seattle (Franklin)

Total to date: -$515
W/L record: 34-46 (Okay, now I'm really in a funk. 1-4 yesterday for -365, as my freefall continues.)


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Thursday, May 06, 2004

The Perfect Morganism

Joe Morgan's writing and chatting on ESPN.com has been a frequent topic on this blog. Little Joe was an extraordinary baseball player and he's an acceptable enough TV announcer, but he is not at his best in print.

In the past, I've pointed out the fact that Morgan thought, for quite some time, that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball. I chronicled an incident in which Joe made a statement in a chat session, was questioned about it the very next day, and first denied making the statement and then criticized people for "putting words into his mouth." There are other things too. If you ever have a few hours to kill, do a search for "Joe Morgan" in my archives.

With all of that said, I think I have found the perfect example of what makes Joe Morgan Joe Morgan. In his weekly column on ESPN.com, Morgan writes:
OBP important, but RBI and runs trump OBP

Since the beginning of the 1990s -- early in my time as a broadcaster for ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball" -- I've tried to make fans more aware of on-base percentage on our telecasts. To my knowledge, we were the first network to use OBP as a statistic.

On-base percentage has always been an important stat, but RBI and runs scored are the truest tests of what a player does to help his team win. Once runners get on base, someone needs to drive them in.

OBP by itself does not equal success. How often does a team get four walks in an inning to drive in a run? OBP is essential, but a good OBP alone does not guarantee a win or a successful season.

The perfect example of this is the defending World Series champion Florida Marlins. Florida finished 15th last year in OBP (.333) among 30 MLB teams. But when the Marlins got runners on base, they were good at forcing the issue -- using the hit-and-run, stealing bases and exhibiting aggressive baserunning ... all of which help produce runs.
In that short passage, you essentially have Joe Morgan's bread and butter "analysis."

First of all, everything is based on Joe's beliefs in "old school" stuff, like runs and RBIs being more important than on-base percentage.

Second, Joe attempts to "play both sides" and avoid taking a strong stance, by prefacing everything he says with talk of him valuing OBP and trying to show others the value of OBP before it was popular to do so. Anyone who has seen Joe's chats, when he is asked direct questions about which team is better or who will win a given matchup, can attest to the fact that he does a lot of prefacing and not much actual opinion stating.

Third, you have a bunch of nonsense being passed off as analysis. Joe says, "How often does a team get four walks in an inning to drive in a run?", as if on-base percentage does not account for hits.

And finally, you have Joe using a specific example, without any sort of factual backing, meant to prove Joe's thesis or general point. In this case, Joe even goes so far as to say that the example he is using is "the perfect example." And what exactly is this perfect example?

Well...
The perfect example of this is the defending World Series champion Florida Marlins. Florida finished 15th last year in OBP (.333) among 30 MLB teams. But when the Marlins got runners on base, they were good at forcing the issue -- using the hit-and-run, stealing bases and exhibiting aggressive baserunning ... all of which help produce runs.
The idea being, of course, that Joe's thoughts on this issue are correct, with Florida's winning the World Series being proof of that. Joe is saying that Florida's on-base percentage was just 15th in MLB, so you wouldn't expect them to do well, but that they were able to win a championship thanks to their ability to "force the issue" by "using the hit-and-run, stealing bases and exhibiting aggressive baserunning."

There is, as usual, just one slight problem. While the Marlins ranked 15th in MLB in on-base percentage last year, and while they did all of their issue forcing and running and stealing and such, they actually ranked 17th in MLB in runs scored.

Which is to say that Joe's entire point isn't really a point at all. In other words, this is a perfect Joe Morganism.

Today's picks:
Pittsburgh (Benson) +210 over Houston (Miller)
San Francisco (Schmidt) -105 over New York (Leiter)
Boston (Martinez) -150 over Cleveland (Sabathia)
Minnesota (Radke) +145 over Seattle (Garcia)
New York (Vazquez) -160 over Oakland (Harden)

Total to date: -$150
W/L record: 33-42 (Another day, another bunch of bad bets. 1-4 yesterday for -175.)


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Wednesday, May 05, 2004

That Stunk

If there's anything more depressing than losing a game in the 16th inning, it is following the entire game on an internet play-by-play service because you can't watch the damn thing, thanks to your favorite team starting up their own TV channel and...well, you get the idea.

Actually being able to see a team strand runner after runner while watching your starting shortstop make a bonehead baserunning mistake in extra innings is one thing. Not being able to see it, and instead looking at such things as "Mientkiewicz grounded into fielder's choice to right, Guzman out at second" on your computer screen is an entirely different level of pain. And yes, you did read that right, Mientkiewicz's "fielder's choice" was to right, as in right field. Don't ask.

On top of that, my beloved Timberwolves dropped Game 1 to the Kings last night. I know I typically reserve "my beloved" for the Twins only, but once another of "my teams" advances past the first round of the playoffs, they get the title too.

Sam Cassell was, once again, absolutely amazing offensively, scoring 40 points (on 15-for-25 shooting) for the second time this postseason. The problem was that the rest of the team shot 24-for-63 (38%) and the Wolves turned the ball over a total of 18 times.

There is already a ton of talk about this being a Sam Cassell-Mike Bibby matchup. In fact, the ESPN.com game recap carries the headline, "Kings win Bibby-Cassell shootout." On the TNT post-game, Charles Barkley (whom I absolutely love) made the comment that Cassell scoring 40 points wasn't all that impressive, since he let Bibby score 33.

This, of course, is simply not the truth. I'm not sure if Charles was actually watching the second-half, but the fact is that Cassell stopped guarding Bibby and Bibby stopped guarding Cassell. In crunch-time, it was actually Fred Hoiberg trying to stop Bibby, and Doug Christie was chasing Cassell for most of the night.

I thought (and perhaps still think...I'm not sure) that the Wolves will win this series. As Bill Simmons says, when in doubt, always take the team with the best player, and that is most certainly Kevin Garnett and the Wolves.

That said, after one game I can already see what may kill the Wolves in round two. They simply have no one capable of guarding Mike Bibby. Sam Cassell is not a horrible defender, but his weaknesses defensively are magnified when he is asked to chase a small, quick guard like Bibby.

At the same time, Trenton Hassell is an extremely good defender, but he is just not capable of guarding a speedy point guard. Hoiberg is a very capable defender as long as he's guarding two-guards and small forwards, but he's not built to run after Bibby. The only guy on the roster who could even come close to matching Bibby's speed and quickness is Troy Hudson, and he's out for the year with a bad wheel.

Bibby is one of the best point guards in the NBA and, more than that, he is one of the best shooters in the NBA. Normally he is a guy who doesn't particularly look for his shot, instead just taking what comes to him. In the playoffs, however, that all changes, which is why the Wolves are in trouble. With Cassell, Hassell or Hoiberg guarding him, Bibby can manuever at will and shoot at will. He can get to the basket and he can free himself for open jumpers.

He wasn't even particularly "hot" last night either, going 10-for-21 overall and 3-for-8 on three-pointers. That's good shooting certainly, but it's not like he was on fire. Bibby shot 45% on the year, including 39% on threes. I'll be shocked if Bibby doesn't lead the Kings in scoring at least three more times this series.

The Wolves clearly need to win Game 2, because they aren't going to take more than one game in Sacramento.

I'll say this... yesterday wasn't my all-time favorite day as a Minnesota sports fan.

New article at The Hardball Times: Adam Dunn: A True (Outcomes) Hero

Today's picks:
St. Louis (Williams) +125 over Philadelphia (Millwood)
Los Angeles (Weaver) +150 over Florida (Penny)
Arizona (Daigle) +225 over Chicago (Wood)
Pittsburgh (Wells) +190 over Clemens (Houston)
Oakland (Zito) +140 over New York (Brown)

Total to date: $25
W/L record: 32-38 (My slide continues, as I go 3-4 yesterday for -65)


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Justin, Jason and Jesse

The Twins had yesterday off, so I don't have a game to talk about. Instead, I figured it would be a good time to look at what some of Minnesota's minor leaguers are doing...

First and foremost, Justin Morneau is destroying International League pitching. Morneau started last season with similar dominance, first at Double-A and then at Triple-A. The Twins called him up in mid-June, at which point he was hitting .309/.380/.622 with 19 homers in 57 total games.

So far this year, Morneau is hitting .411/.455/.778 with eight homers and nine doubles in 21 games. Now, as Twins fans probably recall, Morneau continued to hit very well initially with the Twins and then went into a sustained funk, before getting sent back to the minors.

Still, I think at this point keeping Morneau at Triple-A is fairly silly and pointless. It's quite clear that he is able to dominate minor league pitching. I think it's also pretty clear that the things Morneau struggled with in the big leagues -- namely hitting major-league breaking pitches -- is not something he can improve upon while toying with Triple-A pitching.

It's certainly a difficult situation. You've got a team that is expected to compete all season for a division title and they have quite a few quality options at first base and designated hitter. Still, you've got a guy who is basically making a mockery of Triple-A. If he's still hitting like this in a month, I think the Twins are just going to have to commit to him being their everyday DH.

Of course, if the Twins have shown anything in the past, it is that they are usually not willing to just stick someone in the lineup and let them play if they struggle (see: Cuddyer, Michael). That is, unless the guy is a middle infielder. I like Matthew LeCroy and he should be back fairly soon, and I like Lew Ford and he's killing to ball right now, but neither of them should hold Justin Morneau back.

Interestingly, Morneau isn't the only hitter tearing it up at Triple-A so far. Jason Bartlett, also known as my only hope for a Rivas-less world (it's a long nickname, I know, but it's an accurate one), is hitting .348/.422/.528 with a homer, seven doubles and three triples in 21 games. Bartlett also hit .296/.380/.425 with eight homers, 31 doubles, eight triples and 41 stolen bases in 139 games at Double-A last season.

Bartlett has played shortstop in the minors so far and he's considered a solid defender there (although he's made a ton of errors so far this season), but I am hopeful that the Twins will eventually consider sliding him over to second base. With the Twins finally seeming to sour on Rivas of late, this seems like more a real option than ever before.

Aside from the Morneau and Bartlett, the other prospect at Triple-A who is of interest to me right now is Jesse Crain. He's getting hit a little more than he did last year, when he combined to post a 1.93 ERA in 84 innings, with a 114/25 strikeout/walk ratio. He held opponents to a .160 batting average last year and he is giving up a .294 average to hitters so far this year.

I'd guess he's given up more than his fair share of bloopers and seeing-eye singles, so I'm not concerned about that. More important to me is the fact that he has 18 strikeouts in 13.2 innings, which means he has whiffed 33% of the batters he has faced. That's pretty nasty, especially combined with just three walks.

If I had to bet, I would say Crain will have the biggest impact on the Twins this season. He could very well be a big part of their bullpen by the beginning of next month. Of course, this all depends on how long they can stand letting Morneau put up huge offensive numbers in Rochester, as well as how much longer they can stomach watching Rivas, period.

I think there a lot of people who would say that bringing prospects up in the middle of the year to play big roles on pennant-contending clubs is a mistake, but I would hope that the Marlins (Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis) and Angels (Francisco Rodriguez, John Lackey) have shown that to be anything but a sure thing over the past two years.

The Twins are playing well so far, despite some major issues, but I am looking forward to reinforcements coming. First it'll be Joe Mauer, LeCroy and Rick Helling, and then maybe Crain, Morneau and Bartlett. Just in time too, because I think Henry Blanco and Jose Offerman are turning into pumpkins before our very eyes.

Today's picks:
Montreal (Vargas) -105 over Colorado (Jennings)
Arizona (Sparks) +135 over Chicago (Mitre)
Pittsburgh (Fogg) +200 over Houston (Pettitte)
Chicago (Loaiza) -110 over Baltimore (DuBose)
Minnesota (Lohse) +140 over Seattle (Moyer)
New York (Contreras) +110 over Oakland (Mulder)
Detroit (Robertson) +180 over Anaheim (Washburn)

Total to date: $90
W/L record: 29-34 (I damn near went 2-0 for +400 yesterday, but the Tigers blew a big lead to the Angels. I had to settle for 1-1 for +110.)


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****


Monday, May 03, 2004

Anyone seen the offense?

Baseball is a funny game.

For the first month of the 2004 season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best offenses in the American League and one of the worst pitching staffs. They ranked second in both runs scored and team OPS in April with 133 and .836 respectively. And their pitching, particularly the starters, was awful, with a team ERA of 5.00 that ranked ninth in the AL.

So what happens in the first two games of May? The Twins get following performances from their starting pitchers:
                    IP     H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR

Brad Radke 7 5 0 0 2 4 0
Johan Santana 7 5 1 1 2 6 0
Two starts. 14 innings. One run.

So what happens? The Twins forget how to hit, of course. They go 11-for-62 (.177) in the two games and score a grand total of one run.

The good news? Two good starts in a row for Johan.

New article at The Hardball Times: News, Notes and Quotes (May 3, 2004)

Today's picks:
Cincinnati (Wilson) +210 over Houston (Oswalt)
Detroit (Maroth) +190 over Anaheim (Colon)

Total to date: -$20
W/L record: 28-33 (0-2 on Friday for -230, with a whole slew of rainouts. In the red for the first time all year.)


*****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****