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Friday, August 20, 2004
Almost a SweepI learned many important things last night ...
W L WIN% GBGame 1: Jake Westbrook (11-5, 3.51) vs. Kyle Lohse (5-10, 5.42) Game 2: C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.91) vs. Terry Mulholland (3-6, 4.73) Game 3: Cliff Lee (10-5, 5.10) vs. Brad Radke (8-6, 3.55) From the looks of those matchups, I'd say Game 3 is the one to win. Either way, the Twins will be in first-place on Monday morning. See ya then ... New article at The Hardball Times: News, Notes and Quotes (August 20, 2004) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, August 19, 2004
Johan vs. The YankeesI've written 2,168 words on last night's Twins/Yankees game that you can read simply by clicking on the following link ...The Hardball Times: Johan vs. The Yankees  +  =  ?I doubt it, but a boy can dream, can't he? *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Beating the YankeesIt sure is fun to beat the Yankees. Not only because they're the Yankees, not only because the Twins are in a dogfight for the American League Central championship, not only because the Twins have been struggling lately, but because Minnesota came into the game 1-16 over their last 17 games against New York, dating all the way back to the 2001 season.Quite frankly, I was sick and tired of watching the Twins get their asses handed to them every time they went up against the Yankees. After watching the Twins pound out 13 hits and eight runs on the way to an 8-2 win last night, I'm pretty sure I could get used to this sort of thing. And I don't just mean the winning part. I mean the part about actually having some sort of offensive attack and the part about not being completely dominated by a team in every facet of the game. Now, in New York's defense (as if they need it), they were without both Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez, and they may come back to win the next two games by a combined score of 57-2. Still, I'm just happy the Twins won a game, which, coupled with Cleveland's 16-4 loss to Texas, means they will enter this weekend's series against the Indians with a division lead of at least 1.5 games. A few thoughts on the game ... - Justin Morneau's solo homer off Javier Vazquez in the third inning was one of the most impressive shots I've ever seen hit in the Metrodome. It came just a few feet from hitting the white curtain in the upperdeck in the right field, a mark I can remember being hit by just one person: Jim Thome. - Now, before I get all hot and bothered about Morneau, let me point out one of his major flaws right now, which is the fact that he's not drawing any walks. He received an intentional pass from Vazquez last night, his fourth intentional walk on the year. Because of that, his walk total of nine doesn't look extraordinarily bad, but he has actually drawn just five walks on his own in 160 plate appearances. That's beyond bad, especially for a guy with 11 homers in 149 at-bats and a .537 slugging percentage. You'd think he'd just sort of luck into a walk every 20 plate appearances or so simply because pitchers are a little scared of him, particularly in a lineup that doesn't have a ton of other power threats. From watching Morneau for 60-70 games now, I don't think his problem is that he's necessarily impatient, as much as he is far too willing to expand the strike zone. That's something I have no doubt he'll get way better at, and really it's tough to complain about a 23-year-old rookie who is hitting a homer every dozen at-bats. Still, when you've got as much power as he has, it's very important to make the pitcher throw you something you can clobber. - Not that I'm complaining, but the New York's lineup is a whole lot less scary when it has a bottom third of John Olerud, Miguel Cairo and Enrique Wilson, who sport slugging percentages of .371, .429 and .351, respectively. When healthy, the thing that makes a lineup like New York's so difficult to face is the fact that there aren't any easy stretches. With the Twins, opposing pitchers get to put it on cruise control when they face Luis Rivas, Henry Blanco and Cristian Guzman, but if ARod doesn't get into another fight and Giambi comes back from his various ailments, the Yankees only have one easy spot in the lineup -- second base. - Just when people were starting to turn on Corey Koskie, he goes 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBIs against Cleveland on Monday and follows it up by going 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs against New York last night. While everyone congratulates Guzman for being an awful player, the fact is that Koskie, even before his recent offensive outburst, has been far more valuable to the team than Guzman this year. Now, with his back-to-back three-hit games, Koskie is up to .246/.343/.467 on the year, which is very close to the .278/.374/.464 numbers he put up from 2001-2003. Koskie has been worth about 15-20 more runs than a replacement-level third baseman offensively this year, while Guzman has been right around the replacement level. Throw in Koskie's very good defense at third base and Guzman's very mediocre defense at shortstop and it's not even a contest. - How in the world can a team with a payroll nearing $200 million have a bullpen that includes C.J. Nitkowski, Scott Procter and Tanyon Sturtze? Although I suppose, if you go with the premise that the Yankees are going to make the playoffs regardless of their middle relief, it doesn't really matter what their bullpen consists of beyond 2-3 guys in the postseason. And, certainly, Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill setting up Mariano Rivera is more than acceptable for a team with any payroll. - Amazingly, a .269 on-base percentage and Ron Gardenhire complaining publicly about his work ethic can't keep Rivas out of the lineup. At this point, I'm resigned to the fact that Rivas would have to murder multiple members of Gardenhire's family in order for Michael Cuddyer to be given consecutive starts at second base. Among the 229 major league hitters who have at least 275 plate appearances this season, Rivas' .269 on-base percentage is the worst. New article at The Hardball Times: News, Notes and Quotes (August 18, 2004) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
The Off-Day BluesI never quite realize how obsessed with the Twins I am until there's an off-day on the schedule. I suppose it's the same way for people who are addicted to stuff like alcohol or cigarettes. They don't realize how bad off they are until the pack of smokes is empty or the bottle is dry.So, while the Twins prepared for their beating from the Yankees, I watched the Indians/Rangers game on MLB Extra Innings (Cleveland lost), played a whole bunch of poker at PartyPoker.com (I won back-to-back "Sit & Go" tourneys), and caught up on my Twins reading. A couple notes from the local papers here caught my attention ... From Friday's St. Paul Pioneer Press, in a column by Charley Walters: Cristian Guzman (.278 batting average) is playing so well that he might force the Twins to pick up his $5.25 million option for next season. Guzman is making $3.725 million this season.This brings up a subject that I touched on earlier this month, which is the misguided notion that Cristian Guzman is having a good season. I'm not sure where this seed was planted in the heads of Twins fans, but it really needs to stop. And while it is a silly thought coming from the average fan, it is really amazing when I see a comment like that from the "mainstream" media. I know I'm a lot more into the statistics of baseball than most people, but it still shocks the hell out of me when I see someone paid to write about sports use "logic" that's as faulty as that. First off, why in the world would you use batting average as your one stat to show how good a player is in the year 2004? Well, I know why Charley Walters used it, which is that a) it makes Guzman look good and b) he's probably one of those guys who thinks people who embrace stats that have become widely used in the last 30 years are just nerds. The problem, of course, is that Cristian Guzman stinks. First of all, a .278 batting average isn't even good -- the average AL shortstop is hitting .277. If you look beyond batting average, which, by itself, is bordering on meaningless, Guzman's value drops like a rock, because he doesn't do anything offensively aside from hit singles. He doesn't take walks, he doesn't hit homers, he doesn't hit doubles, he doesn't steal bases. Hell, he doesn't even hit triples anymore. For the year, Guzman is hitting .270 (his average has dipped since Walters wrote that) with a .299 on-base percentage and a .372 slugging percentage. That is beyond bad; among the 78 American League hitters who qualify for the batting title ... - Guzman's batting average ranks 53rd. - Guzman's on-base percentage ranks 75th. - Guzman's slugging percentage ranks 73rd. - Guzman's OPS ranks 76th. And not only has he been awful offensively this year, his numbers are no better than what he's done in past seasons. YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPS GPAWhy is it that Guzman is suddenly "playing so well" this year, as opposed to when he put up almost the exact same, awful numbers offensively in the previous two seasons? And why in the world would a team with a payroll in the $50-million range ever possibly consider paying someone who hits like that $5.25 million next season? Guzman currently ranks 12th among AL shortstops in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), right behind Chris Gomez, who was the Twins' utility infielder last year, and right ahead of Angel Berroa, who was doing so poorly that the Royals demoted him to the minor leagues one year after he was the AL Rookie of the Year. If Win Shares are more your thing (and they might be, since they take defense into account too) Guzman ranks 17th among AL shortstops in Win Shares Above Average (WSAA). There are all kinds of levels of insane in the world of the Minnesota Twins, from little stuff like starting Jacque Jones against lefties to bigger stuff like playing Luis Rivas at second base for 4-5 years in a row. Giving Guzman in excess of $5 million is about a 47.8 on an insanity scale of 1-10. Meanwhile, while everyone in the state of Minnesota appears to be drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to Cristian Guzman, it looks as though those with the power to make the actual decisions might be starting to come around to an idea I've had for about three years. The idea? That Luis Rivas stinks. Here's a little bit from yesterday's Sid Hartman column in the Minneapolis Star Tribune: Twins manager Ron Gardenhire on why he is not playing second baseman Luis Rivas on a regular basis:In other words, not only does Rivas stink, he doesn't work hard and he doesn't listen to the coaching staff. What a wonderful player to have had as your starting second baseman for going on four seasons and what a wonderful player to have given 1,687 at-bats to. UPDATE: I wrote the little anti-Guzman rant you just read late last night and then woke up this morning to find this on the front page of my sports section ... 
Seriously. Among the gems found in the article, written by Jim Souhan ... - A comparison to Derek Jeter, both in a graphic on the front page (which you can see on the bottom left of that picture) and within the actual article. The comparison shows that Jeter, in the midst of perhaps his worst year in the major leagues, has an 11% advantage in on-base percentage and a 19% edge in slugging percentage, along with twice as many stolen bases and a better batting average. - The introduction to the table comparing their numbers on the front page reads: "Cristian Guzman, who came to the Twins in a trade with the Yankees in 1998, has been a bargain this season." - A caption under the gigantic front page picture that reads: "Speedy shortstop Cristian Guzman has been fairly steady this season for the Twins, who have to decide whether to pick up $5.25 million on his contract for next year." - Regarding the big option on his contract for next year, Souhan writes, "Today, because Guzman has made the transition from spectacular to disappointing to steady, he might be perfectly positioned to return." - The following quote about Guzman from Twins third-base coach Al Newman: "This year I'm definitely seeing that All-Star caliber player that's been a force on offense and defense." All of which makes me wonder exactly what these people are smoking and exactly where I can get some of it. The comparison to Jeter, even in his worst year, is laughable at best. And the timing of the entire article, along with the comparison to Jeter, is so transparent it makes the entire thing silly. "Gee, the Yankees are coming to town and we got our shortstop from them ... let's compare him to their current shortstop!" I think Derek Jeter is a vastly overrated player, but he's so far beyond Guzman in terms of the value he brings to a team that it's not even funny. It's like comparing me to Bill Simmons and saying, "Well, Simmons is way better in every possible way, but Gleeman probably isn't the worst writer of all-time." Again, Guzman has been one of the least productive and least valuable players in baseball this year (and in 2002 and 2003) and he's making nearly $4 million this season, yet people are throwing around words like "bargain" and "steady" and "force on offense and defense" about him? Puh-leeze. Don't drink the Kool-Aid, people. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, August 16, 2004
Disorder in the HouseDisorder in the house --- Disorder in the House, Warren ZevonI didn't see this coming. When the Twins swept the White Sox in Chicago at the end of July and then started August by winning back-to-back series against the Red Sox and Angels, I thought they were home free. Minnesota was 61-45, 15 games above .500, and leading the American League Central by six games over Chicago. Now, just two agonizing weeks later, the Twins are desperately holding onto a slim two-game lead atop the division. But that's not even the amazing part -- it's not the White Sox that are right on their tail, it's the Cleveland Indians. I was too busy being giddy about what looked like a third straight division title win over the White Sox to even think about the Indians. I mean, the Twins had been fighting back and forth with Chicago all year, just like they did in 2002 and 2003, and they had surged ahead at a key moment, seemingly putting the White Sox out of reach, just like they did in 2002 and 2003. Then suddenly the Indians were right there -- two games back. And if not for a surprisingly excellent start by Terry Mulholland and a three-hit game from Corey Koskie yesterday, the division would be all tied up. To say the Indians snuck up on me would be an understatement. They didn't even really sneak, they were just sort of there. Like a car that pulls up next to you at a red light without ever being in your rear-view mirror. And now they're revving their engine, waiting for the light to turn green. Take a look at just how quickly things have changed in the AL Central ... STANDINGS ON AUGUST 6And here's how the AL Central race has played out for the whole year ... 
(That graph is courtesy of Mr. Baseball Graphs himself, our own Studes, who is currently featuring the Indians in his "Team Spotlight" over at THT's team pages.) Almost since the division's birth, the Indians were the bullies of the AL Central. From 1995 to 2001, they won six division titles, including five straight from 1995-1999. After the Twins won the World Series in 1991, they had what was essentially a decade of horrible teams. And when they finally got good again in 2001, taking a 56-32 record and five-game division lead into the All-Star break, it was the Indians who came back in the second-half and took the division from them. Then, during that offseason, the Indians began their rebuilding process. Over the next two years, they said goodbye to Jim Thome, Bartolo Colon, Roberto Alomar, Travis Fryman, Juan Gonzalez, Dave Burba, Kenny Lofton, Chuck Finley and Charles Nagy, among others. As the Twins proved that their 2001 season was no fluke by winning the division by 13.5 games over Chicago in 2002, I had it in my head that the Indians were out of the picture until at least 2005 or 2006. When their rebuilding process was finished, I knew they'd be scary because of all the young talent they suddenly had, but I certainly didn't think they'd be a team to worry about this soon. So when the White Sox went into their annual fade this year and Twins kept chugging right along, I started to think about playoff matchups and postseason rotations and all the other wonderful stuff that Yankees fans start thinking about each April. On August 5, with the Twins sporting a 14-5 record since the All-Star break and a six-game lead over Chicago with 56 games left to play, I wrote the following about the AL Central race: [The Twins] are getting very close to running away and hiding from the rest of the American League Central. Now, those of you who have experienced my incredible pessimism in regard to the Twins over the last two years know that I'm the last person in the world to say something like that, but I think it's true.A brilliant time for me to get optimistic, huh? The part that is really scary for Twins fans is the upcoming schedule. The Twins and Indians play 10 more times this year, which means the Twins aren't going to be able to beat up on other teams to build their lead like they have while defeating the White Sox in the past. If they're going to win the division again, the Twins are going to have to deal with Cleveland directly, including seven times in the season's final 10 games. In addition to that, the Indians are hot, winning 21 of their last 30 games, while the Twins are not, losing eight of their last 11. And, of course, the Indians just took two out of three from the Twins, walloping them by a combined score of 15-3 in the first two games. As if that weren't enough, the Twins now host a three-game series that starts Tuesday against the Yankees, a team they haven't won a regular season game against since 2001. Yes, that's right, 2001. If you count last year's postseason, the Twins are 1-16 over their last 17 games against New York. When the Twins and Indians meet again this weekend, this time in Minnesota, there's a good chance the Indians will have cut the lead to one game and perhaps even tied things up. Just as they did this time around, the Indians will miss Minnesota's ace, Johan Santana, who is 10-3 with a 1.89 ERA since the end of May and starts Wednesday against New York. I've written recently that I feel the Twins have sort of coasted the last two years, being content to simply be better than the White Sox, rather than building a more powerful team that could not only beat the weak competition in the AL Central, but perhaps have a better shot against the stronger competition in the East and West. They haven't upgraded their horrible middle-infield situation in years, Jacque Jones continues to flail away against left-handed pitching, they didn't add another quality arm to either the rotation or the bullpen, and Justin Morneau wasted away at Triple-A for nearly half the year. In the past two seasons, stuff like that hasn't hurt them in the division race, but it looks like it might now. Cleveland is for real and that's not really a surprise, except for the fact that they're a year or two early. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner needed very little time to establish themselves as elite players at their positions, Grady Sizemore has stepped in as the every centerfielder and is hitting .265/.358/.412 in 23 games, Ben Broussard is starting to hit like many thought he could, and they're getting very good production from veterans (and former Twins) Casey Blake and Matt Lawton. The pitching staff is still not very good, which is part of the reason why I didn't think they'd be a factor this year, but the offense is so good -- leading all of baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage and doubles -- that it doesn't much matter who's on the mound. The Indians are early to the AL Central party and I'm not sure if that's worse for Minnesota right now, with the Twins suddenly struggling to fight them off for a third straight division title, or in the future, when Cleveland's young players have more experience and the next wave of prospects (Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Aubrey, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, Andrew Brown) arrive. After the Indians committed to rebuilding their team, the Twins had a window of opportunity in the AL Central. They've certainly taken advantage of it, winning two straight division titles, but partly because of their actions and partly because of Cleveland's excellent rebuilding effort, the window appears to have closed up a lot sooner than expected. I would guess that this version of the Indians will be the worst they'll have for several years and that's bad news for the rest of the division, because if you think the Indians are tough now, wait until they find some pitching to go along with all the bats. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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