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Friday, September 03, 2004
Back to SchoolToday is my last day as a free man, as I head back to school tomorrow afternoon. And because I still need to finish up my packing (or start my packing, depending on how you look at it), I don't have anything Twins-related today. Instead, head on over to The Hardball Times for the second half of my article about playoff pitching staffs.Hardball Times: Playoff Pitching (National League) See ya Monday, when I'll begin writing to you from an undersized, overheated dorm room while trying to put off doing actual school work. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, September 02, 2004
Packing, Not WritingI've been informed that any and all of my spare time must now be spent packing for my move back to school this weekend, so unfortunately I don't have anything new and exciting for you to read here today. However, I do have a brand new article over at The Hardball Times and it does include a section on the Twins (for those of you into that sort of thing), so please go check it out ...The Hardball Times: Playoff Pitching (American League) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
The Big TradeThere was a time when a contending team trading for Pat Borders as they geared up for the playoffs would have been relatively big news. I was going to say it would have been "big news" without the "relatively" in front, but then I looked at Borders' numbers and realized that wasn't really true.At his best, Borders was a catcher with a little pop in his bat and very little else. In his best season, he hit .286/.319/.497 with 15 homers, 24 doubles and 18 walks in 368 plate appearances. That was 15 years ago. Borders is now 41 years old and his 16th season as a major leaguer, though just barely. Over the past six years, he has a grand total of 116 plate appearances in the major leagues, including 55 with the Seattle Mariners this season. In those 116 plate appearances -- about what an everyday player gets in a month -- Borders has hit .234 with a .254 on-base percentage and a .342 slugging percentage. His lone remaining skill -- the thing I'm sure caused the Twins to value him enough to trade for him and use a roster spot on him -- is his age and whatever other qualities you want to attach to that. He's a veteran, he's good in the clubhouse, he's good at handling a pitching staff, he's been there before, and on and on and on. I'm not particularly big on those things being of significant value, but in this case it doesn't much matter. Joe Mauer's knee is not going to allow him to catch again this season and his future behind the plate is in doubt as well. Because of that, and the fact that the Twins planned to have Mauer as their catcher for nearly every game this season, they have been left very thin at the position. They have been relying on Henry Blanco as their starter, with Rob Bowen as his backup. Blanco's defense has been fantastic and he has done a very nice job with the pitching staff, but the offensive contributions of those two have been so bad that ... well, they've been so bad that adding Borders to the mix doesn't make things any worse. The real issue here comes down to whether or not Borders is an upgrade over Bowen, and the smaller issue is whether or not upgrading your backup catcher really even matters. The problem with trying to make the comparison is that neither of them have played any sort of significant amount in the major leagues during the past several seasons. As I said, Borders has just 116 plate appearances going back as far as six seasons, while Bowen has a total of 43 plate appearances in his entire career. Those types of sample sizes are so small that literally anything could happen in them. However, I think the value from Borders is that he is probably a better defensive catcher than Bowen (44.4% stolen base percentage against over the past two years, compared to 93.3% for Bowen) and less likely to "give away" at-bats in key situations. In other words, both catchers have hit very poorly, but Bowen has looked completely lost at the plate while doing so. In 37 at-bats, he has struck out 14 times (37.8%) and has just four hits. And he was no better at Double-A, hitting .198 with a strikeout in 30.6% of his at-bats. Basically what this entire deal comes down to is the fact that the Twins were apparently not comfortable with Bowen getting about three at-bats a week during the final month of the season and perhaps another at-bat every other game in the postseason. I can't say that I blame them, but when you look at it that way, it's probably not even worth the amount of words I've already devoted it. However, I'd like to take it one step further. In order to acquire Borders and make the ever-so-slight upgrade at backup catcher, the Twins had to send the Mariners a minor league outfielder named B.J. Garbe. Why is that notable? For one reason: Garbe was the Twins' first-round draft pick back in 1999. With the fifth overall pick that year -- three picks after the Marlins took Josh Beckett, four picks before the A's took Barry Zito, and five picks before the Brewers took Ben Sheets -- the Twins selected Garbe, a toolsy high school outfielder from Washington. Five years later, they've traded Garbe for a 41-year-old catcher who figures to get about 30 at-bats for the rest of the season. And you wanna know the really sad thing? It wasn't a bad trade. Garbe has been such an awful player throughout his minor league career that I see very little chance of him becoming anything more than a role player in the majors, if that. There have, of course, been players who have performed as poorly as Garbe has early in their career and gone on to big things, such as the Twins' own Torii Hunter, but you can't hold onto every struggling former prospect in the hopes of that happening. In order to keep Garbe and not risk losing him in the next Rule 5 draft, the Twins would have had to again use up a spot on their 40-man roster on Garbe, which just doesn't make sense for a guy hitting .201 at Double-A in an organization flooded with outfielders who can actually hit. So, rather than lose a #5 overall pick who got a signing bonus of nearly $3 million for nothing, the Twins have "cashed him in" for Borders. Baseball sure is a funny game sometimes. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
The New Guy Hits, The Old Guy TalksWith 25 singles, 10 doubles and 13 home runs in 184 at-bats this season, Justin Morneau has a .549 slugging percentage. If he had enough playing time to qualify for the batting title, his slugging percentage would rank 11th in the American League.The last Twins hitter to slug that high in a season with at least 175 at-bats was Shane Mack, with a .564 slugging percentage in 303 at-bats during the strike-shortened 1994 season. In fact, since the Twins won the World Series in 1991, Mack is the only Minnesota hitter to slug higher than Morneau's current mark. Here's the Twins' all-time slugging percentage leaderboard ... YEAR SLGNot bad for a 23-year-old rookie, huh? In a related story, the man Morneau replaced at first base, Doug "The Mouth" Mientkiewicz, had some interesting words for his former team recently. Here's a quote, courtesy of the Boston Globe: "I don't think Terry [Ryan] wanted to trade me," Mientkiewicz said. "I know Terry didn't want to trade me. It wasn't Terry. Our owner [Carl Pohlad] just found out I got traded, like a week ago. He's furious. I know that for a fact."I'm not sure what's funnier here, the fact that Carl Pohlad just found out "like a week ago" that his team's first baseman was traded about a month ago, or the fact that Mientkiewicz thinks Pohlad would be "furious" about something that took him three weeks to learn about. As he is wont to do, Dougie continued: "Terry called me three or four times after a game and said, 'I can't do it.' I said, 'Then you better do something about it in there [the clubhouse], because it's not a happy situation.' The man [Gardenhire] did me wrong."I've had the opportunity to speak with some people who were close to the situation and the general feeling I got was that Mientkiewicz was simply not interested in stepping aside for Morneau. The fact that he was traded this season and had some friction with Ron Gardenhire is perhaps unfortunate, but his eventual departure was as inevitable as Mientkiewicz mouthing off about it once he got to Boston. Mientkiewicz wasn't hitting, Morneau was. Mientkiewicz is 30 years old and making millions, Morneau is 23 and making the league minimum. It doesn't take a genius to see that something had to give, particularly because Mientkiewicz himself is implying that he would not have handled being Morneau's backup very well. Also, file this one under "be careful what you wish for." When you're a 30-year-old first baseman struggling to get your slugging percentage to .400 and you've got one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball on your tail, you might not be too happy with what happens when you tell the General Manager of the team that he "better do something about it because it's not a happy situation." Terry Ryan did something about it and it is now a very happy situation. Mientkiewicz went on: "The one thing I'll always wonder is, we have a DH for a reason," said Mientkiewicz. "Yep, it [the trade] will come back and get them."I think the implication here is that Morneau stinks on defense and thus Mientkiewicz should have remained the team's first baseman. The problem with that logic is that the Twins also had to find at-bats for Shannon Stewart, Lew Ford and Jacque Jones, in addition to Morneau. Which of those guys would you bench in favor of Mientkiewicz? Incidentally, I have been pleasantly surprised with Morneau's defense. He doesn't have Mientkiewicz's range, but neither do about 20 other starting first basemen around baseball. Morneau is far from a butcher out there and I think he's excellent at scooping poor throws out of the dirt, which is perhaps the single most important skill for a first baseman to have. And, unlike Mientkiewicz, he hasn't hit like a middle infielder. As for the trade coming back to "get them," that isn't even an issue. For one thing, Mientkiewicz, even at his best, is not an elite player. For another thing, he has been far from his best the entire year, even since coming to Boston. He hit .246/.340/.363 for the Twins and is hitting .245/.273/.358 for the Red Sox. Since the team benched Mientkiewicz back in early July, they are 27-21 (.563), compared to 45-47 (.549) prior to that. Since getting rid of Mientkiewicz completely, they are 15-13 (.536). And all of those numbers without Mientkiewicz have come during what is, without question, the most difficult portion of their schedule. Here's my favorite Mientkiewicz quote (which is saying something, since the article is like four pages long): "From my perspective, I was a winner who wasn't very expensive. In the baseball scheme of things right now, I'm a very cheap alternative to what you have to pay other guys at my position. To me, I'd take 25 Bill Muellers over a five-tools guy any day of the week. He's going to win more games for me."First of all, I'm not sure who the "five-tools guy" is that Mientkiewicz is referring to here, since there's no way anyone has ever accused Justin Morneau of having more then 2-3 tools. In fact, I would say Mientkiewicz has Morneau out-tooled. Mientkiewicz is right that he is relatively cheap for a starting first baseman, but, as I said, the problem with that logic is that Morneau makes about 10% of Mientkiewicz's salary and that will be the case for at least a couple more years. Also, the problem with bringing Bill Mueller into this whole conversation is that Mueller is actually playing well. He won the AL batting title last season and is hitting .286/.365/.448 for the Red Sox this year. According to Value Over Replacement Player, Mueller has been worth 20.3 runs over a replacement-level third baseman offensively in just 84 games this season, while Mientkiewicz has been worth 0.4 runs over a replacement-level first baseman in 99 games. I don't want to come across as someone who dislikes Mientkiewicz, because he was actually a favorite of mine ever since he joined the Twins and I also appreciate a player who is willing to speak his mind. However, this comes across as nothing but sour grapes, a veteran player who is upset because he was pushed aside for a younger, better player. If Mientkiewicz had played a little better this year, perhaps the Twins would have waited to make the switch until the offseason or even midway into next year. Unfortunately he didn't, and it's very difficult to stick with a first baseman slugging .363 when you've got a guy in the minors hitting .300 with a homer every three games. I like Mientkiewicz and I wish him well in Boston, but there's no way I will ever be convinced that trading him was a bad decision. Justin Morneau is the real deal and he needed to play first base every day, and I'd say the Twins waited about as long to make the switch as they possibly could have. It's nice to have a first baseman with some power, and while there have been some plays that Morneau missed that Mientkiewicz probably would have made, the position is still first base and Morneau's homers have made me forget all about Mientkiewicz and his defense (that is until he opened up his mouth). And really, if Twins fans are going to get all hot and bothered about letting a first baseman leave, I think the first guy on the list might be David Ortiz, who finished fifth in the MVP voting with the Red Sox last season and is hitting .301/.375/.605 with 33 homers, 40 doubles and 114 RBIs for them this year. Ortiz was let go in favor of Doug Mientkiewicz. *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, August 30, 2004
Little Ground Lost and Eyeing the Finish LineIt wasn't the greatest weekend for the Twins, as they dropped two out of three to the Angels, but it was a safe weekend because they lost just one game off their lead in the American League Central standings, as Cleveland and Chicago split their four-game series.I keep re-figuring this in my head after every game because it makes me feel better about winning the division, so I might as well share it with you: If the Twins play .500 baseball for the rest of the season, the Indians would have to go 22-8 (.733) to catch them, while the White Sox would have to go 25-9 (.735). That might sound a little too possible at first, but you have to remember that the Twins, once they finish up their three-game series with the Rangers that starts tomorrow, are pretty much done with the difficult portion of their schedule. After weeks and weeks of playing all of the AL playoff contenders, they host Kansas City following the Texas series, before heading to Baltimore and Detroit. Their remaining schedule looks like this: 7 vs. ClevelandThe seven games left against Cleveland (all in the final two weeks of the season) and six left against Chicago mean the Twins aren't going to put this completely out of reach at any point, but it's going to take a major collapse down the stretch for them to avoid a third straight division title. Incidentally, I think what the Twins have been able to do over the last month or so, facing by far the toughest portion of their schedule, is very impressive. Starting on July 26, they have played 32 games, with all but three of them being against New York, Boston, Oakland, Anaheim, Texas, Cleveland and Chicago. During that stretch (which has three games against Texas remaining), they've gone 18-14. All they need to do now is find about a dozen wins left in that schedule. On a somewhat related note, the Twins have called up their top prospect, Jason Kubel, who I wrote about here last week. This might seem surprising, since rosters don't expand to 40 until September 1, but this move was made a couple days early in order for Kubel to be eligible for the playoff roster. Which, incidentally, lends a little credence to my theory that the Twins think of Kubel a lot like they thought of Joe Mauer, which is to say a little higher than they thought of guys like Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Lew Ford. All of which means I'm still holding out hope that Kubel, and not Jacque Jones, will be their Opening Day rightfielder in 2005. New article at The Hardball Times: Wrapping Up the Weekend *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |