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Friday, November 12, 2004
Unanimously JohanI feel a bit like a proud father today. In the 28 months I've been writing at my blog and the nine months I've been writing at The Hardball Times, I have penned well over a million words (Blogger says I've written 926,480 words on the blog alone, and I babble plenty at THT too). And for anyone who has been reading me for a while, it probably seems as if at least half of those words were written about Johan Santana.In August of 2002 -- the first month of the blog's existence -- I wrote the first of what has turned into countless columns about Santana. I suspect that many of you are not very familiar with Mr. Santana, but with the way he has pitched this season, that might change very quickly.At the time I wrote that, Santana was a 23-year-old former Rule 5 pick with a total of 206.2 major-league innings under his belt, and he had a career ERA of 4.96. But in his third stint with the Twins, I saw something in Santana that was special. He had a blazing fastball, but what set him apart was that he also possessed an outstanding slider and one of the filthiest changeups I had ever seen. He wasn't just striking people out, he was making them look silly at the plate. In October of 2002, after Santana went 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA down the stretch for the Twins, I wrote the following in my end-of-season assessment of the team: More than any pitcher in the Minnesota Twins organization, I believe Johan Santana has a chance to be something very special, a chance to be a dominant pitcher at the major-league level. One thing they do not have is a guy who has a chance to become a true "ace," a #1 starter, a dominant, top level starting pitcher. I think Johan Santana is that guy.When the Twins kept Santana hidden away in the bullpen for most of the 2003 season, I campaigned constantly for a move to his rightful place in the team's rotation. My blog essentially became the Johan Santana Fan Club, and when THT started up this March, I infested a second website with my Santana worship. At first people thought it was kind of cute -- I started calling him "The Official Pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog" and other bloggers would toss in a line about me loving him whenever they mentioned Santana. Then at some point my weekly (and sometimes daily) Santana chronicles became too much for some people to take. I began to get e-mails from readers who complained that I talked about him too much, and whenever a Santana-related column of mine would show up at THT, several people would strongly suggest that I keep the Santana stuff on my blog. My response, usually, was that by the middle of this season Santana was no longer a topic for Twins fans, he was a topic for baseball fans. The run he made during the final four months of the season is one of the greatest in the history of the sport. Since the start of June, Santana went 18-3 with a 1.50 ERA, including 13-0 with a 1.18 ERA after the All-Star break and a nearly unbelievable 5-0 with a 0.26 ERA in September. And all the while I couldn't stop smiling. I am not an expert on baseball talent and I would be utterly useless as a scout, but for some reason I saw something in Santana that I hadn't seen in other players. Whether it was the pitches he threw or the style he threw them or his supreme confidence on the mound, I saw a player who wasn't very well known and I knew instantly that he'd become a star. He just needed the chance. That long-awaited chance came this season, as the Twins finally put him into the rotation to begin the year and made no talks about shuttling him back and forth. It was the moment I had been waiting for. Before the start of the season, THT's writers made predictions about the 2004 standings and award winners. I predicted Santana would win the American League Cy Young and was the only person to do so. But while I had all the confidence in the world in Santana, I never in my wildest dreams could have expected a season like the one he had. Santana started off struggling, going 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA in April and May while complaining that he didn't have a good "feel" for what he was doing on the mound following offseason elbow surgery. He then took his fourth loss of the season in his first start in June, giving up four runs to the Devil Rays. Even in the loss, something clicked in Santana that day as he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before the wheels came flying off, and he finally started pitching like the guy who got me so worked up during the past two years. From then on, Santana didn't make a single bad start. Not one. He made 22 starts to finish the season and the most runs he allowed in any of them was three, which happened once. Six times he didn't allow a single earned run to score and nine times he gave up just one. He had a 33-inning scoreless streak in September, reeled off 21 straight Quality Starts, and likely would have gone for 22 in a row if he hadn't been yanked from his final start of the season after five innings to rest up for the playoffs. Had whatever clicked in Santana in June clicked in him a little sooner, he would have had one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher in baseball history, a year that perhaps could have rivaled what Pedro Martinez did in 1999 and 2000. Instead, Santana had to settle for leading the league in ERA, strikeouts and opponent's batting average, setting the Twins' all-time record for strikeouts in a season, and putting on a show in the second half that baseball fans aren't likely to forget anytime soon. And now he can add the American League Cy Young to his list of accomplishments, and he can do so knowing the voting was unanimous in his favor. VOTESI had a lot of doubt about whether or not the voters would see just how great Santana was this season, although most of that vanished for me once he got his 20th win of the year. For most people that is the magic number, and as long as Santana got to it he was safe, even if Curt Schilling was one spot ahead of him with 21 victories. There were 28 votes cast for the best pitcher in the league and 28 votes for Santana. What this means, aside from the fact that I should maybe give the people who vote for these awards just slightly more credit than I have been, is that no one who matters in the world of baseball listens to or thinks like John Kruk. That should have seemed obvious to anyone who has heard Kruk before, but I had my doubts. For the past couple months, Kruk has talked up Schilling as the best pitcher in the AL, first infecting us with his opinion on ESPN's Baseball Tonight and then, as the voting for the award came closer, popping up in newspapers too. In a St. Paul Pioneer Press article from earlier this week that appeared in papers across the country, Kruk was quoted extensively. ESPN analyst Jon Kruk said there is only one statistic that should matter in the voting.Sadly, I think it's fairly likely that a lot of the voters do, for the most part, agree with Kruk. In fact, we just saw that this is true in the National League Cy Young voting. However, thankfully in this case Santana was able to get to that magic 20th win, which was enough to pull what is apparently everyone in the free world except for Kruk into his camp. My favorite Kruk line is that, "People at ESPN are into numbers." It reminds me of a bit I heard a comedian (I can't remember who, strangely) do once. He said, "I know a lot of people who say 'I'm not really into computers.' You know, at this point saying you're 'not into computers' is like telling someone, 'I'm not really into this whole telephone thing.'" In other words, with all the wonderful information we have at our fingertips now that wasn't around even 10 years ago, anyone who bases their opinion of who the best pitcher in a league is on the number of wins they have is so beyond not worth listening to that it isn't even funny. Among other things, ESPN should be embarrassed by the fact that, as the largest form of sports media in the country, one of the three major baseball analysts they employ isn't really into the telephone. The sad thing is that Kruk will likely continue to ruin what was one of the best shows on television each time he appears on Baseball Tonight with his mindless, illogical, mindnumbing "analysis." The good news is that no one, from statheads and blog writers to the members of the mainstream media who actually decide who wins awards are paying one bit of attention to what he thinks or says. When you're still towing the party line that "the guy with the most wins is the best pitcher" and you've been surpassed in baseball enlightenment by every member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, that might be a sign that it's time to give up the fight and take a look at a few of those dreaded numbers. The other day someone asked me why I hadn't written anything about my picks for the season-ending awards and hadn't commented on Jason Bay and Bobby Crosby winning the Rookie of the Year awards or Clemens winning the NL Cy Young. I told them I really didn't care about the awards anymore, because if a group of baseball "experts" are still using wins and RBIs as their barometer for greatness, why should we care what they think? Santana was the best pitcher in the American League this season and it wasn't particularly close, yet as sad as it is, I was surprised that everyone in charge of handing out that honor actually saw that. But in a couple days, when the American League MVP is announced and Santana finishes nowhere near the top, order will be restored and I can go back to wondering why we care what 28 writers who often seem as if they haven't made an effort to learn anything new about the sport they cover in the last decade really think about who deserves awards. For now though, it feels pretty good to know that Johan Santana is the 2004 American League Cy Young winner. Today at The Hardball Times: - World Cup 2006: A Look Ahead (by Craig Burley) - Fantasy Keepers: First Basemen (by Ben Jacobs)     
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Book Stuff, Pictures and RetirementI apologize for not having something new for you to read here or at The Hardball Times yesterday. It's very rare for me to completely take the day off at both places, but I really wanted to make sure everyone got a chance to buy The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual, so I left it prominently displayed at the top of this page for a couple days.I want to thank everyone who bought the book already. In just two days, The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual is already the #17 bestseller in Lulu.com history. Now, that might say more about Lulu than it does about our book, because clearly that's not quite the New York Times bestseller list, but I think it's still pretty good for two days' worth of sales. If you haven't ponied up for the book yet, please do. For only $6.25 you can get the e-book and begin reading it immediately. The book should be available on Amazon.com soon and it will also start popping up in actual bookstores across the country in the near future. We're working on some other interesting book-related things that I'll let you know all about soon too. For now, I can't wait until my copy arrives in the mail next week, and I'd love to hear what everyone thinks once they get their hands on the copy they ordered too. I also want to thank the many bloggers who have helped us promote the book this week. We got far too many links and nice words for me to thank everyone personally here, but the overall outpouring of support was really great to see. And for those of you out there with websites who haven't yet given us a plug or two, there's still plenty of time! Every little thing counts and it definitely all adds up. A few interesting links for you to chew on before I get back on schedule and babbling about poker and the Twins again ... Today at The Hardball Times: - The Meat Market: Outfielders (by Aaron Gleeman)
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual
This is a pretty big day for myself and the rest of the guys over at The Hardball Times. Our first book, The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual, is available for purchase today. At the moment, the book is available online through Lulu.com, a popular self-publishing website. We're working on some other options for selling the book that could be available soon, but it is basically a mom and pop-type deal right now. The book is great and includes a ton of hard work from everyone involved. We've got plenty of new articles covering the 2004 season, from in-depth division reviews and a recap of the postseason to looks at the year in the minors, college baseball, the Japanese leagues, and fantasy ball. We've also included some of our very best work from the website over the past year, as well as an extraordinary amount of stats and graphs (so it's not only a good read, it can be a reference guide for years to come). We've got all the Win Shares info you could ever ask for, league and team totals for tons of categories, individual league leaders, four pages of numbers devoted to each and every team with detailed batting, pitching and fielding stats, and individual plate appearance outcomes (strikeout, walk, fly ball, ground ball, line drive) for every significant pitcher and hitter in baseball. Plus a whole bunch of other stuff too. I really do hope every person reading this right now decides to purchase a book, not only because I think you'll really enjoy it, but because of all the hard work we put into it. The cost of the book is $16.75 and you can have it shipped to you in a matter of days, or you can order an "e-book" that you can download to your computer instantly for just $6.25. I'm as proud of this book as I've been of anything I've ever worked on in my life, so please consider buying a copy. Heck, it'll make an excellent gift for the holidays that are right around the corner, so buy a few! Order The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
A Little (Government) HelpI have an assignment for one of my classes to do a profile of a member of state government in Minnesota. Since I don't really personally know of anyone who fits that bill (it has to be state, not city), I thought perhaps one of you did.If anyone reading this either knows someone in state government who would be willing to have a profile done of them or is a member of state government themselves, could you please drop me an e-mail and let me know? Any help on this would really be appreciated.
Monday, November 08, 2004
Poker NotesI usually stick to 10-person sit-and-go tournaments, but last Thursday I played a bigger tournament, with 650 total players and a $33 buy-in. After not catching any cards for a few rotations and getting blinded away, I built my stack from the 1,000 chips I started with to around 5,000, stayed there for quite a while, and then moved up to 8,000.At that point, I knocked out a couple of the low stacks at my table to move over 10,000, peaking at around 11,500 or so. With about 150 players left, I started to catch some cards, but I got absolutely killed on the river. Twice in the span of about 20 minutes, I found myself all-in after the flop with top pair/top kicker against someone with top pair/low kicker. In other words, I had them dominated with two cards left. And both times the river made us each a full house, thus negating my kicker advantage and making a split pot. Had I won both of the pots, like I should have, I would have been among the top 5-10 chip leaders heading down the stretch. Instead, I had about an average stack, and when my pocket kings didn't hold up against another medium stack's ace-ten unsuited (I'm not sure why he called my all-in re-raise), I was crippled and down to about 2,500 in chips. I stuck around long enough to finish 58th, earning myself a cool $68 (a profit of $35 for a couple hours' work). Not bad, but the first-place prize was $4,200, second place was good for $3,000, and I was a couple of really bad breaks from having a chance to get there. Very disappointing. A little later I played another $33 buy-in tourney, this time with 250 players, and finished 22nd when my pocket queens couldn't hold up against pocket eights. Another tough way to lose (and yeah, I know everyone despises "bad beat" stories). I continue to do well playing sit-and-go tournaments, and each passing week of profits goes a long way to convincing me that my play isn't a fluke. I'm certainly not a great player, but I've come a very long way from when I first started playing. The next step, I suppose, is starting to play in some live games. The problem is that I think I am far better playing no-limit tournaments, rather than the limit ring games that most live poker rooms tend to offer. Regardless, I would guess that those of you who play at the Canterbury Card Club here in Minnesota might see my ugly mug a few times over my winter break from school (although I hear there are unbelievably long waits to get a table there). Actually, I had a crazy thought while I was playing in the 650-person tournament. If I can continue to play well for the next few months, I could build up a large enough bankroll to actually fly to Las Vegas and play in one of the smaller stakes World Series of Poker events this summer. "Smaller stakes" is all relative, of course, since the lowest buy-in for a no-limit tournament is $1,000. Hell, I could get really crazy and try to play my way into the Main Event through a $1,000 satellite tournament. Like I said, it's a crazy thought. I do wonder if they'd let me wear a "The Hardball Times" t-shirt on ESPN ... Since I figure I should branch out to live games now, I suppose I should ask if any of you guys have a local game in Minnesota that has room for one more. Since a large percentage of my audience here probably plays poker and a large percentage is in Minnesota, there must be a few games out there that wouldn't mind having me. I'll bring snacks, so drop me an e-mail. Oh, and one other thing: If you are a betting man (and odds are that if you made it all the way through this entry you are), then I highly suggest you take the Colts minus the points tonight against the Vikings. I can't possibly express to you how strongly I feel about this. Just do it, and you can thank me in the morning. Today at The Hardball Times: - The Meat Market: Third Basemen (by Aaron Gleeman)
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |