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Friday, December 03, 2004
Operation: Unload BookmarksIn addition to getting behind on my e-mails (it has happened yet again, sadly), another thing I often get overloaded in is "bookmarks" -- links to stuff on various websites that I save with a plan to talk about them here or at The Hardball Times at some point. Since my bookmarks are only slightly less out of control than my in-box right now, I thought today would be a good time to unload them. You know, before they get together and revolt against me over the weekend or something.  (That would be Hutchinson on the left and Navarre on the right.)
To be honest, I'm not sure which is scarier: Those two mugshots right next to each other in a place where women and children might stumble across them or the fact that both of those guys will be starting NFL games this Sunday. (And yes, I realize I'm not exactly the greatest looking human being on the planet, but me being funny looking doesn't preclude other people from being funny looking too.) The second one is Dutch Boyd's blog, which is basically his musings on poker and other subjects, such as trying to quit smoking. Boyd is a member of "The Crew," which is a group of young poker players who are friends and who get a lot more attention from ESPN than they probably deserve. I know a lot of people find Boyd and his buddies annoying (or worse), but I have to admit that I liked watching him play during the 2003 World Series of Poker. I don't care if a guy has a big ego or is pompous or comes across as a jerk, I just like to watch people who are interesting. It's the same reason Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson are two of my favorite baseball players. With that said, I'm not exactly a big fan of Boyd as a person, at least not judging from some of the stuff I've read about his business practices. Although, I will say that you have to admire someone who can do that many amazing chip tricks at the table. (Oh, and Boyd went to college when he was 12 and was done with grad school at 18 too, if you're interested in that sort of thing.) Anyway, I just like his blog. In yesterday's entry, he talks about a poker website that is selling "I Hate the Crew" t-shirts and writes: "If they sent me one of those crew-hater t-shirts, I'd probably even wear it. Irony is stylish." If you're like me and you're constantly searching for more quality poker writing on the internet, add those two blogs to your links. Here's a little piece of the article: Blinds were $100,000/$200,000, and for four days, for up to 14 hours a day, Beal sat quietly in a white suit and bulky black headphones and grinded it out against the pros, who took him on in shifts. He finally got up and walked away from the table, saying he had to go back to Dallas for his twin daughters' camping trip -- finishing up a $10 million winner.I've read a lot about this subject and perhaps more than anything else in the world of poker, these elite players teaming up to compete against Beal for ungodly stakes is fascinating to me. There are just so many levels of intrigue involved. A guy who has so much money that he can almost literally gamble any amount he wants and not worry about losing. A group of the very best players in the world getting together to try to get some of that money from him. And how about just the actual game? I can't begin to tell you how much I'd love to watch people playing for $200,000 a bet, and the strategy involved has to almost go beyond poker in a lot of ways.    Weekend Reading: - The BTF Poker Tournament - Bye Bye Blanco (Choosing a Backup Backstop) - Worlds Colliding - NBA Notes (and Juan Castro) - Notes from the (Long) Weekend     
Thursday, December 02, 2004
The BTF Poker TournamentLast night, 19 baseball and poker nuts ponied up a $20 buy-in plus a $2 entry fee to play in the very first Baseball Think Factory Poker Tournament on Poker Stars. It was my big chance to put my money where my mouth is, as I've been talking about my improving poker play here for the last couple months. The tournament started at 8:00 my time and by 8:01 I was in last place.On the very first hand of the tournament, I was dealt pocket queens, raised it to 80 in chips (four times the big blind), and was promptly re-raised to 225. Now, obviously I had no clue what type of player I was up against, so I debated whether to call or re-raise. With 1,500 in starting chips, I figured just about any sort of re-raise under half my stack was likely to be called, so I decided that my two choices were to call or go all-in. On the off chance that he woke up to pocket aces, pocket kings or ace-king, I really didn't feel like going all-in, being called, and getting knocked out on the first hand of the entire tournament. In a normal situation, playing in a regular tournament against people I didn't know and who wouldn't be able to ridicule me for the rest of my life if I got knocked out first, I would have likely gone all-in. In this case, I decided to just call. The flop was complete rags -- I think it was something like 9-5-2 without any matching suits. I checked, planning on trapping, but then became really worried when he bet out huge. I can't remember the exact amount, but it would have pretty much pot-committed me for the rest of my chips. So there I was, with a great hand and a great flop, with a big pot and plenty of chips. And do you know what I did? I laid down the queens. I tried to find out what the other guy had, both at the time and after the tournament was over, but he wouldn't tell me. Honestly, I'm not sure what he had, which is the danger of getting into a huge pot with someone who you've literally never played a single hand with before. If he had pocket aces, pocket kings or a small pocket-pair that flopped a set (three-of-a-kind) when the rags came up, I made a great laydown. If he had anything else, I made a horrendous play and lost out on a chance to double up right off the bat. My general strategy in tournaments is to play very conservative early, try not to get involved in any coin-flip situations, hang around until the field thins a bit and the blinds go up, and then get aggressive. I'm not sure that laying down queens in that spot is being "conservative early" (as opposed to "idiotic early," for instance), but I just didn't feel comfortable risking all my chips immediately. As it turns out, the laydown worked out well, although it didn't look that way early on. For the next few rotations around the table, I couldn't get anything decent as a starting hand, and the mid-level stuff I did play never hit anything on the flop. I was being blinded away and found myself with about one-third of my original chips and the blinds rising to dangerous levels. I needed to make a stand, so I went all-in with Ac 8c. I was called and found myself a huge underdog (though I can't remember to what) and hit miracle runner-runner (two in a row) clubs to make my flush. Suddenly I was back in business, although still relatively short-stacked. A little later, I went all-in with ace-king unsuited and tripled up against pocket fives and ace-jack unsuited when an ace hit the board. I pretty much rode that huge pot to the "final table," which consisted of the last nine players. I was the low stack, yet again, and a couple guys had me out-chipped by nearly 10-to-1. I needed to make another move and found myself all-in with ace-jack unsuited against pocket fours, and had another miracle card come off on the river, this time an ace (although it should be noted that ace-jack against a pair of fours is basically a coin-flip situation). Later, in what was one of the biggest pots of the night, I grabbed 8,800 in chips when my pocket kings knocked out pocket nines. Suddenly I was one of the big stacks at the table and my focus turned to making the money, which went to the final three finishers. With four players left, I raised with ace-queen and was re-raised very heavily by the other big stack. I thought about it for a long time, and put him on a pocket pair of at least tens. That meant, if I was right, it was a coin flip situation against two of his possible hands (tens and jacks) and I was a heavy underdog to the other three (queens, kings, aces). Even if he had ace-king, which I doubted, he would be a huge favorite. The opportunity to double up is obviously huge, but I couldn't risk losing nearly my entire stack when I was so close to the money and there was another player with a very low stack. So for the second time I made a laydown that I wasn't exactly happy about, and this time the other player showed me what he had: pocket jacks. So I gave up a few chips and a coin-flip chance at doubling up. Not a horrible decision, and I was happy that my read on his hand was more or less correct. Down to three players, in the money, and getting fairly low on chips yet again, I called the big blind and was raised. I had Js 10s and was almost certain I was a fairly big underdog, but a suited connector is at least a good hand if you have to comeback to beat a high pocket-pair. I called and when my opponent turned over pocket queens I literally said goodbye to everyone (and there were a whole bunch of people "watching" and chatting while we played). For the second time in the tournament, I hit runner-runner (this time spades) to make my flush and win the pot. I road that lucky win to the final two, but was severely out-chipped once we got to heads up (one-on-one) action. I had around 5,000 and my opponent had around 20,000, making me a 4-to-1 underdog. My plan was to see as many cheap flops as I could and hope the chip leader's aggressiveness eventually got him into trouble. As any heavy chip leader should, he continuously raised me, forcing me to fold time after time. My stack was dwindling and I was absolutely getting "run over." Then the moment I was waiting/hoping for finally arrived. I was dealt pocket queens (definitely the hand of the tournament) and limped in, like I had in nearly every other hand since we got heads up. As usual, the big stack raised me a large amount. I paused for a while, making him think I was in deep thought, and then went all-in. He quickly called and turned over pocket jacks, making me about a 4-to-1 favorite. My queens held up and I doubled up, taking over the chip lead. My opponent went all-in a few hands later and I called with king-queen suited, figuring he either had a "middle ace" (an ace with a low second card) or a small pocket-pair. Turns out he had ace-eight unsuited, and he doubled up on me when three more eights hit the board, giving him four-of-a-kind. We then played back and forth for quite a while without much movement and I was down 17,291 to 11,209. I was dealt ace-deuce unsuited, a very solid hand heads up, and was immediately faced with a raise to 3,600, about a third of my stack. I felt like he probably didn't have an ace, so I re-raised him all-in, figuring there was a pretty good shot he'd lay down the hand and give me the 3,600. Instead, he called and turned over king-jack unsuited, making me a favorite. The flop went A-K-Q, giving me a pair of aces and him a pair of kings. My hand held up when the turn was a harmless five and the river was another deuce, giving me two pair (which I didn't even need). Now leading 22,418 to 6,082, I limped in with queen-four unsuited in the very next hand and the flop came Q-9-5, with two diamonds. My plan was to trap and check-raise, figuring my top pair was good. To my surprise, I didn't get the chance, as my opponent immediately went all-in for his remaining 4,807 chips. I called, hoping he didn't have a flush draw or a "bigger" queen. When he turned over five-four unsuited, giving him a pair of fives, I was relieved. The turn and river were both blanks and my pair of queens held up, giving me the victory. I was down big early, made a couple of questionable laydowns, got lucky at least twice to stay alive, and found myself playing heads up at the end, severely out-chipped. I always feel very confident heads up, regardless of chip positions, and in this case I felt like it was only a matter of time before I could pounce on a mistake and get back in the game. It was really pressure-packed, as we must have played for at least 45 straight minutes, back and forth, with people watching and commenting. It felt really good to win the tournament, even if it only had 19 players. I keep looking for evidence that my success playing poker recently is not just some fluke or a stretch of good luck, and this is another thing I can look to that says I am legitimately playing well. The $190 prize isn't bad either. You can't beat $168 profit for three hours worth of "work" when it involves eating Chinese food and watching the World Poker Tour while pressing buttons on a laptop. Of course, more than anything else, I think I'll enjoy the bragging rights, however temporary. Hopefully I'll have a chance to defend my title next week. Today at The Hardball Times: - World Cup Squads, Part 2: United States and the Netherlands (by Craig Burley)
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
Take My Money, PleaseI am playing in the Baseball Think Factory Poker Tournament tonight, and for the small cost of $22 you too can play and attempt to take my money. This is BTF's first attempt at a poker tourney, and since I'd love to play in a regular game with a bunch of baseball fans, I'm hoping some of you will sign up so there's a good turnout.Here are the details: Site: Poker Stars (www.PokerStars.com) Game: No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em ($20 buy-in + $2 entry fee) Time: 9:00 ET Tourney Name: Baseball Think Factory, Volume I Tourney Number: 3648896 Password: optionj If you're not already a Poker Stars player (and I wasn't before yesterday), you need to download the software, create a user name, and deposit some money into your account. It's really quite easy to do and you'll be done in about three minutes. Then, once you have all that set up, log in, go to "Tourney," and then select "Private." At that point you should get a list of all the private tournaments available, so find either the tournament named "Baseball Think Factory, Volume I" or the tournament numbered "3648896." When asked for a password to join, type in "optionj" and make sure all the letters are lower-case. I really hope some of you sign up, because it should be fun. As always, if you want to play in the tournament and you have a question, feel free to drop me an e-mail. Today at The Hardball Times: Workload and Durability (Part 1) (by Robert Dudek)
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Bye Bye Blanco (Choosing a Backup Backstop)Choosing a backup catcher never seems like a very important decision. The difference between a sub par backup and a great backup simply isn't that huge, and the limited playing time they get makes the gap in value even smaller. That is, of course, unless your rookie catcher who is supposed to be a stud behind the plate for the next 15 years or so goes down with a severe knee injury in the second game of his career. When that happens -- as it did with the Twins and Joe Mauer this season -- what you're suddenly left with is a very important backup catcher.The Twins signed Henry Blanco last offseason because they wanted an affordable, veteran backup who was solid defensively and could help tutor and mentor Mauer in his first big-league season. Instead, Blanco ended up making a backup's wages ($750,000) while getting a starter's playing time, appearing in 114 games and totaling 353 plate appearances. However, despite what many Twins fans mysteriously believe, Blanco did not have a good season. He was excellent defensively and his durability was valuable, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the American League, hitting a pathetic .206/.260/.368. In fact, Blanco ranked as the worst catcher in the league according to Win Shares Above Average, which takes both offense and defense into account. The Twins, being the same team that just gave Juan Castro $2 million over two years, picked up Blanco's $750,000 option for 2005 like it was a no-brainer, setting it up for him to once again enter the season as Mauer's backup. In a very surprising move, Blanco then turned around and used a playing-time clause in his contract to void the 2005 option, becoming a free agent. Now, I had no problem with the Twins picking up Blanco's option, because he was cheap enough and, for the most part, he's what you get when you go shopping for a backup catcher. However, the moment Blanco declined to accept the contract the team had just handed him for 2005, I would have cut all ties and started the search for a replacement. The Twins, who are far more loyal to a guy who hit .206 than I ever could be, reacted a little differently, offering Blanco a two-year contract worth $1.8 million. In what has to be one of the more inexplicable decisions of the young offseason, Blanco -- a .216/.288/.356 career hitter who has played for five different teams in seven seasons in the majors -- turned down the two-year deal. Terry Ryan and company finally had enough, putting an end to the ridiculousness of bidding against no one for Blanco's services by signing longime Marlins' backup Mike Redmond to that same two-year deal worth $1.8 million. I have a feeling that somewhere along the line with Blanco, Ryan had one of those moments where you just say, "You know what? I don't need this." He picked up the option for 2005 and Blanco wriggled out of it, which he had every right to do. Ryan then continued to negotiate with him and actually offered a two-year deal worth more money, and Blanco turned it down. At some point you just have to step back from the situation and realize you are going through all of this trouble for a guy who is simply not a good baseball player. A fine backup catcher? Sure. I happen to think he's wildly overrated by Twins fans at the moment, but he's certainly no worse than a number of other backups around baseball. The flip side is that he's certainly no better either. In the end, the Twins said goodbye to Blanco -- who was starting to act like Carlos Beltran with his new-found free agency -- and brought in Redmond, who is quite frankly a superior player. And all for the exact same two-year deal they tried to hand to Blanco. Redmond hits like a typical backup catcher, which means he is simultaneously a poor offensive player and reminiscent of Mike Piazza when compared to Blanco. Redmond hit .256/.315/.341 for the Marlins this year, which is about 9% better than the offense Blanco gave the Twins. Here's a look at how they compare over the past three seasons: PA AVG OBP SLG OPS GPARedmond has been 34% more likely to get a hit and 29% more likely to get on base than Blanco, and his overall offensive production has been about 19% better, which is pretty huge. If everything goes according to plan for the Twins in 2005, Mauer will play 100 games and catch around 900 innings, and Redmond will get somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 plate appearances. If he duplicates his numbers offensively from 2002-04 over those 200 trips to the plate, he will have been worth about 20 runs to the Twins, compared to the 15 Blanco would have created. On the other hand, Redmond is not the defensive player that Blanco is, or at least his throwing arm can't compete. Although Redmond has a very good reputation for handling a pitching staff and calling a game, his caught stealing numbers have been poor in recent years, especially compared to Blanco. Redmond threw out 14-of-65 (21.5%) baserunners this year, while Blanco gunned down a very impressive 49.2% (30-of-61). Here are their numbers over the past three years: SB CS CS%When you look at the three-year span, the gap isn't nearly as large. Blanco's 38.0% is still outstanding, but Redmond's 28.7% is also respectable. One other aspect of their arms that is perhaps overlooked is the fact that, in addition to having a higher caught-stealing percentage, Blanco also keeps teams from trying to run. Redmond had a stolen base attempted against him once every 8.8 innings over the past three years, while teams tried to steal against Blanco once every 11.4 innings. There are some other factors at work here (the leagues they played in, the pitchers they caught for, etc.), but that's still fairly significant however you slice it. While you can say with some certainty that Redmond should be worth about five runs more than Blanco as a hitter in 200 plate appearances, it is a lot more difficult to look at a catcher's defensive value, as the impact a catcher has beyond throwing out baserunners is nearly impossible to quantify. With that said, I think it's safe to say that Blanco could certainly be five runs (or more) better than Redmond behind the plate over the course of what would be 400-450 innings. The one simple thing you can do for a defensive comparison is project stolen base numbers out to 450 innings caught and assign typical "run values" to steals (+0.2 runs) and caught stealings (-0.35 runs). By using their combined numbers over the past three seasons, Blanco would go 15-for-40 throwing out runners and Redmond would go 15-for-51, for a difference of about two runs in Blanco's favor. Tack on the added value that Blanco brings by keeping teams from running more often and perhaps he's worth three extra runs with his arm. Three runs isn't much, although it is enough to nearly offset the offensive gains the Twins make by replacing Blanco with Redmond. If you think Blanco is also superior at calling a game, handling a staff or any number of the other "invisible" things catchers are counted on to do, then Blanco and Redmond come out with nearly identical overall values. All of which is why choosing a backup catcher often comes down to picking someone the team is comfortable with and sticking with them. Some guys -- like Redmond -- give you a little value offensively, while some guys -- like Blanco -- give you a little value defensively. When you add it all up, the thing that becomes abundantly clear is that guys like Blanco and Redmond are backup catchers for a reason and, barring injury, the impact of the decision is minimal. In the Twins' case, the "barring injury" part is a little tricky, as I have major doubts about Mauer's ability to stay healthy and behind the plate for an entire season. Minnesota's backup catcher has added importance, and the Twins decided to go with offense over defense, but most of all decided they were sick of trying to deal with a run-of-the-mill backup catcher and his agent. Considering the Twins don't have the sort of payroll room to go after a "backup" who is more capable of being a valuable player if forced into a starting role, the end result of their decision was a good one. Perhaps most importantly, swapping Blanco for Redmond is a move that, if Mauer stays healthy, won't matter one bit. Today at The Hardball Times: - Re-Imagining the Big Zone Sixties, Part 1: 1963-1965 (by Steve Treder)
Monday, November 29, 2004
Notes from the (Long) WeekendI hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. The two main things I discovered over the long weekend were that I like gin as much as I like vodka and I wasn't as repulsed by actually seeing National Treasure as I was by hearing about the plot beforehand. However, I'm perfectly willing to admit that my not hating the movie means I'm less intelligent than I think I am.Anyway, it's been a little longer than usual since last we spoke, so here are a few random notes I've been saving up ... If I were that rich, I think I would have employees "dedicated" to nearly every aspect of my life. Someone dedicated to putting my socks on, someone dedicated to brushing my teeth, someone dedicated to shampooing my hair. The possibilities are endless. Just think about how great it would be to have someone walking around in the world, handing out business cards that read: "Aaron Gleeman's personal nose-picker." Incidentally, I am a little bit behind on my e-mails because of Thanksgiving, so if you sent me something over the past week or so and haven't heard back yet, please be patient. I'll get to them soon, I promise. Robin Quivers, shock jock Howard Stern's longtime sidekick, is making a solo move toward television.I love Robin Quivers, but I can't imagine her show being anything but horrendous. Her strength is being able to play off of Stern, who is generally pretty relentless when it comes to celebrities. Left on her own to chat with famous people, I'd expect Quivers' interviews to be slightly less critical and revealing than James Lipton's. If anyone on Stern's show is screaming for a spinoff, it is definitely Beetlejuice. That I'd watch. Although, in Foxx's defense, Jennifer Lopez appeared on the show earlier this year, and she's made exactly one watchable movie in the last seven years. Her last seven films, in order: The Wedding Planner, Angel Eyes, Enough, Maid in Manhattan, Gigli, Jersey Girl, Shall We Dance. That is truly an extraordinary run of unwatchability, one that I think even the Los Angeles Clippers can get a good laugh from. There clearly needs to be some rule that says an actor has to have a certain number of good movies on their resume before they can appear on the show to have their ass kissed for an hour by Lipton. If you set the minimum at, say, five good movies, that gives Foxx an opportunity to build his resume a little more and then make an appearance, and it will also be high enough to keep Lopez from ever appearing on the show. This is a very important issue, because the last thing Al Pacino needs after wasting an hour of his life answering idiotic questions from Lipton is to hear the host say, "Join us next week, when we welcome Vin Diesel." I've spoken to potential advertisers on occasion, and one of the first things they always ask is what type of products my audience is interested in. Typically I say baseball books, memorabilia, sports clothing, fantasy games, etc. Now I guess I have a new thing to add to that list. Who knew? On one hand, The Godfather is perhaps my favorite movie and Mario Puzo's book is a masterpiece, one of the best and most compelling stories I've ever read. Naturally I'd love to read a sequel. On the other hand, there's something that just doesn't sit quite right with me about some guy picking up where Puzo left off. What made Puzo's book so great was the passion he had for the subject and the story, and I just can't see someone else being able to replicate that, particularly not without knowing and working with Puzo. With that said, I'd love to hear from anyone who has read The Godfather Returns already, because my curiosity is killing me. Just to let you know how obsessed I am with Seinfeld, consider that the holidays are coming up and my birthday falls on January 3, and I have asked my family for exactly two things: high-quality, plastic playing cards and the new Seinfeld DVD collection. That's it, that's all I could think of that I wanted. Well, that and Elisha Cuthbert, but as far as I know she's not available on Amazon. As for everyone else, I hear The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual makes an excellent gift for any occasion! Today at The Hardball Times: - Making the Most of What You've Got (by Studes)
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