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Friday, February 04, 2005
Link-O-RamaI have to admit, these link-dump columns are starting to become favorites of mine. The more I write them, the more interesting links you guys send me, which is always a good thing. Plus, if you saw the way my "favorites" folder fills up during the course of a week, you'd know just how badly I need to dump these links on you by the time Friday rolls around.TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Baltimore Ravens cornerback Corey Fuller was acquitted Saturday of all three gambling and gun charges after being accused of running high-stakes card games at his house.Now, that's a damn good lead and very intriguing. However, it can't hold a candle to what you find if you make it to the middle of the story: But prosecutor Matt Smith told jurors that Fuller presided over the card games like "a pit boss," armed and demanding the house cut, which was put in a shoe box on the game-room floor.I have long been of the opinion that there isn't enough mainstream media coverage of NFL players running casinos out of their homes, so this was a welcomed sight. That and I'm wondering if Casino Fuller has any openings in the $3/$6 hold 'em game this weekend. In the middle of the Minneapolis Star Tribune story on the game is this little tidbit: As a 10-year-old, when he was already 5-9, Eggleston was considered to be a basketball phenom. But he didn't grow any taller after that, and has mostly been out of the limelight since.The state scoring record is really nice, but geez, how depressing. Earlier this week, someone showed up here by way of a Google search for the phrase "18 years old guys dick management," which somehow produced this blog as the #1 search result. I'm not sure how my column about Tim Raines from August 20, 2002 ended up at the top of Google's heap in this case, but I guess I'll take whatever extra readers I can get. And now we find out that in addition to constantly complaining about his contract status, getting suspended for yelling at a female fan, being ticketed for a verbal altercation with a police officer, and (most importantly) consistently performing at a sub par level on the court, Sprewell missed the team flight to Milwaukee earlier this week, earning himself a seat on the bench to begin Wednesday night's blowout loss to the lowly Bucks. At this point, I have about as much chance of being on the team next year as Sprewell does. After making $14.6 million this season, one can only hope Sprewell is able to find another way to feed his family. On a related note, Minnesota's lack of success this year is being talked about as one of the most surprising stories of the season, but when you look at Kevin Garnett's supporting cast I'm not so sure that it should be. Sam Cassell has started just 33 of the team's 46 games and, when he's been healthy, appears to have lost a step himself. After that, you've got a rapidly declining Sprewell, who has gone from an ultra-athletic slasher and defensive stopper to a guy who is a defensive liability and takes nothing but jumpers all game. Wally Szczerbiak is having a very good season, but he has very little ability to create his own shot and isn't much on the defensive end either. Throw in the fact that John Thomas, Ervin Johnson, Mark Madsen, Anthony Carter, Michael Olowokandi, and Trenton Hassell have combined to start 70 games and I think you can see where I'm going with this. Those guys each have uses and can each be contributors to good NBA teams, but if all of them are playing significant minutes and getting multiple starts, the team is simply headed nowhere. After Garnett, who is the team's second-best player? Cassell, obviously, but he's already missed a bunch of time with an injury and hurt his shoulder in the first quarter of the Milwaukee game. So again, who is the team's second-best player? Sprewell? Szczerbiak? An injured Cassell? I don't care how good Garnett is -- and he's having another MVP-caliber season -- you'll be hard-pressed to find a great NBA team with a second option who is that mediocre, not to mention a cast of role players being asked to take on this many minutes. The danger in acquiring Cassell and Sprewell last year was always that they could get old in a hurry, and it looks like that's exactly what has happened. Today at The Hardball Times: - Pinch Me I'm Elmer Valo (by John Brattain)     
Thursday, February 03, 2005
State of the Twins: Middle InfieldersThough we're still a couple months away from Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins' roster is just about set for the 2005 season. They lost a few of their free agents, re-signed the most important one, took care of all their arbitration-eligible guys, and recently handed out their non-roster invites for spring training.Over the next week or so, I am going to take an early, position-by-position look at the state of the Twins heading into 2005, with the help of three player projection/forecasting systems -- Tangotiger's Marcels, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTAs, and Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS. (Hat tip to Tom Meagher over at The Fourth Outfielder for the inspiration for the idea.) I covered catchers on Monday and corner infielders on Tuesday, so today let's cover the middle infielders ... LUIS RIVAS | 2B | AGE: 25 JUAN CASTRO | SS/2B/3B | AGE: 33This is where things get ugly for the 2005 Twins. The collection of "talent" they have assembled to play second base and shortstop this year is remarkably bad. None of the six players I have listed above project as even an average offensive player at second base or shortstop, two positions where the overall offensive levels are very low. For our collective sanity, I didn't even bother to include a guy like Andy Fox, who is a non-roster invitee to spring training and projects as even worse than everyone else (as hard as that is to believe). As things stand right now, Luis Rivas is once again the starter at second base and Juan Castro, who was signed as a free agent this offseason, is the starter at shortstop. If you look at Rivas' projections, it is amazing how similar all three of them are. And they all agree that he'll stink, of course. Actually though, if you told me he was going to match his average projection of .266/.309/.411 this year, I'd take it in a second. That .720 OPS, however paltry, would be his career-high in a full season. The saddest thing is that Castro actually figures to be significantly worse than Rivas offensively, coming in with an average projection of .250/.290/.384. Like Rivas, Castro's projection is simultaneously horrible and very optimistic, as Castro is a career .226/.269/.331 hitter and has reached a .290 on-base percentage or a .384 slugging percentage just once in his entire career. If you add Rivas' average projected OPS with Castro's average projected OPS, you get 1.394. Barry Bonds' OPS was 1.422 in 2004. There are quite a few other options for the Twins in the middle infield, but none of them really stand out. Well, actually that's not quite true. In my mind, the obvious choice would have involved committing to Michael Cuddyer at second base and re-signing Corey Koskie to play third base before he left for Toronto, signing a cheap free agent like Joe Randa, or plugging the hole at third with guys like Terry Tiffee and Eric Munson. Cuddyer's bat would be a major asset at second base and his defense there would be better than his defense at third base, in my opinion. Koskie and Randa are no longer options obviously, but Cuddyer still has an outside shot at seeing significant playing time at second base (in other words, a boy can dream). Jason Bartlett is a promising prospect who appears to be the future at shortstop for the Twins. As has been the case with a lot of guys who have appeared to be the future at a given position for Minnesota in the last decade or so, the team's management has decided he needs additional seasoning in the minors. Bartlett hit .331/.415/.472 in 67 games at Triple-A last year after hitting .296/.380/.425 in 139 games at Double-A in 2003, so he has certainly conquered the high minor leagues. However, he looked awful in a very brief stint with the Twins last season and the team seems to have concerns about his defense. Imagine being a promising young shortstop prospect who has heard concerns from the organization about your defense, only to see them go out and sign Castro, the ultimate good-glove/no-hit shortstop, to a two-year deal during the offseason. It's like a young girl getting engaged to a guy with wedding plans in a year or so, the fiance complaining about her cooking, and then going out and hiring a less attractive, older female housekeeper who can do nothing but cook. Bartlett and the cooking-impaired girl probably know they shouldn't be that threatened, but there's still that woman cooking dinner in the kitchen. Personally, I would give Bartlett a chance at shortstop to see what he can do right now. He's 24 years old, he has proven he can succeed in the high minors for two straight years, he is relatively highly thought of as a prospect, and he plays a position the team is very weak at currently. Of course, there's a decent chance I'm crazy, but it's also worth remembering that I didn't give Castro a million bucks a year for the next two seasons. Oh, and really, in the grand scheme of things, who cares if she can cook? Today at The Hardball Times: - Top 50 Prospects: Year in Review (11-20) (by Aaron Gleeman)
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Trades, Marriages, and GoodbyesTaking a break from breaking down the Twins ...I don't mean those tales of my success in the league to come across as bragging, but rather it is meant to prepare you for what I am about to admit to: Two nights ago, with the midnight deadline to re-sign/cut players for the upcoming season rapidly approaching, I traded for -- get ready for this -- Jose Mesa, Bobby Higginson, Henry Blanco, and Michael Tucker in three different deals, all in the course of about two hours. Shocked the hell out of me too -- it was like I was channeling the un-dead spirit of Cam Bonifay or something. Of course, before the night was over I traded Higginson, Blanco, and Tucker, leaving me with only Mesa (who was actually quite good in 2004). And yeah, I know there's nothing worse than listening to someone talk about their fantasy teams, but I just had to tell someone. MIAMI -- Mets catcher Mike Piazza married former Playboy Playmate and "Baywatch" star Alicia Rickter in a candlelight church ceremony.  First of all, I think it's funny that in a sentence containing the phrase "Baywatch star," the word that is in quotes isn't "star." But I digress ...
I'm not exactly in a position to criticize the looks of others (not that it has stopped me before), but the picture accompanying the article (featured to the right) is either the worst one ever taken of Alicia Rickter or ... well, let's hope for Piazza's sake that she has a serious case of the two-face. In other words, if the tabloids in New York spot Piazza and Rickter eating at the back booth of some hole-in-the-wall diner on Broadway and 112th Street, you'll know exactly what's going on. (And yes, if you're wondering, all of this was simply an excuse to post a picture of an ex-Playmate and make some obscure Seinfeld reference.) When I read his final column, I was surprised by how abruptly he said goodbye to his readers. There was an "editor's note" as a sidebar to the column, which said, "This is John Sickels' final Down on the Farm column for ESPN.com" and then gave some information about where you can find John's writing in the future. And then there was this at the end of the article: Postscript: I want to personally thank everyone who has read Down on the Farm over the years. Thank you.And that was it, that was his entire goodbye. Well, it turns out John had a little bit more to say in his farewell column, but apparently the ESPN.com editors cut it out. According to John, here is what he wanted to have published as his goodbye: The end of Down on the Farm at ESPN.com is here; this is the last column. But it is not the end of everything that stands, and we have some elaborate plans for the future.There is certainly nothing strange or defamatory in that goodbye, so it seems absurdly disrespectful that ESPN.com would choose to cut what was essentially John's final words to his audience. I will continue to be a big fan of John's writing wherever he goes, and in fact I was a fan of ESPN.com's baseball coverage largely because of John's writing. Now John is gone, Rob Neyer is behind the for-pay wall of ESPN Insider, their minor-league coverage consists of reprinting material from Baseball America, Peter Gammons has written like three columns since the World Series, and the bylines of Buster Olney and Phil Rogers appear almost as often as pop-up ads. Thankfully Alan Schwarz, Jayson Stark, and Eric Neel (when they let him write something not for Page 2) are still around or I might forget the page even existed. For those of you who haven't already, go to JohnSickels.com, buy his annual book on prospects, and let him know you're looking forward to reading his work at his new home (wherever that ends up being). Today at The Hardball Times: - Top 50 Prospects: Year in Review (21-30) (by Aaron Gleeman)
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
State of the Twins: Corner InfieldersThough we're still a couple months away from Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins' roster is just about set for the 2005 season. They lost a few of their free agents, re-signed the most important one, took care of all their arbitration-eligible guys, and recently handed out their non-roster invites for spring training.Over the next week or so, I am going to take an early, position-by-position look at the state of the Twins heading into 2005, with the help of three player projection/forecasting systems -- Tangotiger's Marcels, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTAs, and Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS. (Hat tip to Tom Meagher over at The Fourth Outfielder for the inspiration for the idea.) We kicked things off with the catchers yesterday, so today let's cover the corner infielders ... JUSTIN MORNEAU | 1B | AGE: 24 MICHAEL CUDDYER | 3B/2B | AGE: 26As it stands right now, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Matthew LeCroy are locks to make the team -- Morneau and Cuddyer starting at first base and third base, and LeCroy as a part-time designated hitter, emergency catcher, and bat off the bench. Eric Munson and Terry Tiffee are presumably battling it out to see who makes the team as the primary corner-infield backup, as both have experience playing first base and third base. I've been talking Cuddyer up as someone who deserves everyday playing time for the past three years or so, and I'm hoping this is finally the year he gets a chance to show what he can do over the course of 500 at-bats. His average projection of .272/.347/.457 is right on the money with what I've been saying he could do and it would make him an above-average offensive third baseman. Of course, I'd rather see him put up those numbers at second base, where he'd be one of the better offensive players at the position, but that's not going to happen as long as Luis Rivas is still around (and making $1.625 million). I am more excited to see what Morneau can do over the course of a full season than I am with anyone on the team, save for maybe Joe Mauer. Morneau hit .271/.340/.536 in 312 plate appearances with the Twins last year and his average projection of .277/.346/.515 is nearly identical to that. It's going to very difficult for Morneau to avoid disappointing a lot of fans after the type of power he showed off in the second half of 2004, but I think that projection is reasonable. If he plays well for the whole year, he'll have no problem topping a .515 slugging percentage, but if he struggles at times (which is to be expected in his first full season), .515 should still be within reach. If you pro-rate each of Morneau's projections over the course of 550 at-bats (about a full-season's worth), Marcel has him at 28 homers, PECOTA has him at 31 homers, and ZiPS has him at 37 homers -- for an average of 32. If I were a betting man (and I am), I'd definitely take the "over" on that this season (he hit 19 homers in 280 at-bats last year). If you read my thoughts on Munson when the Twins signed him a couple weeks ago, you know I'm not particularly high on him for anything more than a part-time role. Because of that, I was surprised by how well he does in these three projections, with an average of .241/.323/.464. Considering he hit .212 last year and is a career .215 hitter in the major leagues, I have a hard time believing Munson is a good bet for a .241 batting average. With that said, if he can somehow manage to hit .241, the .323 on-base percentage (.082 Isolated Discipline) and .464 slugging percentage (.223 Isolated Power) are doable, and it would make him a very solid backup at the corner spots. Tiffee's average projection of .276/.326/.431 is fairly similar to Munson's, but with more batting average and less power. Actually, that average projection is amazingly close to what I suggested Tiffee was capable of back when the Twins first called him up from the minors in September: "If he hits .280, his lack of walks would put his on-base percentage somewhere around .320-.330. And, if his power is closer to his pre-2004 levels, his slugging percentage would check in at around .430." I still don't think Tiffee is going to be much more than a good role player for a contending team, but he'd be a fine backup at first base and third base in 2005. My guess is that Minnesota starts the season with Munson on the bench and Tiffee back at Triple-A, and then makes a decision on who takes the job for the second half based on how they perform in April and May. Both players would be above-average corner-infield backups (offensively, at least), so it's a nice dilemma to have. Today at The Hardball Times: - Drying Off the Spitty 1910s, Part 2: The Careers (by Steve Treder)
Monday, January 31, 2005
State of the Twins: CatchersThough we're still a couple months away from Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins' roster is just about set for the 2005 season. They lost a few of their free agents, re-signed the most important one, took care of all their arbitration-eligible guys, and recently handed out their non-roster invites for spring training.Over the next week or so, I am going to take an early, position-by-position look at the state of the Twins heading into 2005, with the help of three player projection/forecasting systems -- Tangotiger's Marcels, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTAs, and Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS. (Hat tip to Tom Meagher over at The Fourth Outfielder for the inspiration for the idea.) Let's lead things off with the catchers ... JOE MAUER | C | AGE: 22 MIKE REDMOND | C | AGE: 34In years past I would have included Matthew LeCroy in this group, but considering the amount of balls he threw into center field while opposing runners went 15-for-16 stealing bases against him last year, I'm guessing he's spent his last meaningful game behind the plate for the Twins. It's a shame too, because before his arm went completely limp, LeCroy was passable defensively at catcher and provided plenty of offense for the position. At worst he was always a perfect third catcher, providing Ron Gardenhire with some extra flexibility. I always wanted the team to utilize him more at catcher, but that ship appears to have sailed. Assuming LeCroy is relegated to first base and designated hitter this year, that leaves the Twins with four options at catcher. Joe Mauer will enter the season as the starter and will get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate as long as his surgically repaired knee holds up. My confidence in Mauer's ability to hit for power got a huge boost last season with his six homers and eight doubles in 107 at-bats, so his average projection of .304/.368/.456 looks cautious, but just about right. In other words, while it would have been a fine projection for Mauer heading into last season, the chances of him matching his ZiPS projection by slugging just .404 despite a .316 batting average are beyond slim at this point. Backing up Mauer -- and stepping into the starting role if he goes down with another injury -- will be longtime Marlins' backup Mike Redmond. Redmond's average projection of .267/.322/.363 looks very doable and would be a significant upgrade over the .206/.260/.368 performance the team got from Henry Blanco last year. If everything goes right for the Twins in 2005, they won't be needing Corky Miller or Rob Bowen. If Mauer stays healthy and Redmond simply needs to be his backup and take over for him behind the plate once or twice per week, Miller and Bowen will make an excellent catching combo at Double-A and Triple-A. However, if Mauer goes down again and Redmond is suddenly thrust into starting 4-5 times per week, either Miller or Bowen would be needed as his new backup. They look nearly identical according to their average projections -- .226/.307/.365 for Miller and .229/.301/.370 for Bowen. With that said, considering Bowen hit just .197 at Double-A last year and has been absolutely horrible in his two brief stints with the Twins (.108/.190/.189 in 43 plate appearances), I'd be inclined to give Miller the nod as the #3 man on the depth chart. Any way you slice it, the Twins have a lot more catching depth than they had heading into last season. Mauer, Bowen, and LeCroy are holdovers from 2004 who will fill similar roles in 2005. The team swapped Blanco for Redmond as the primary backup and Miller has been added as a minor-league reinforcement. What that means is that there won't be as much of a scramble to find out what someone like Pat Borders is up to if the team is hit with catching injuries this time around. Assuming Mauer stays healthy -- which is an assumption I am definitely not ready to make -- the Twins have one of the strongest catching situations in baseball. Today at The Hardball Times: - All About Arbitration (by Studes)
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