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Friday, June 03, 2005

How's the Hitting? (Part 2)

Yesterday I looked at how the Twins' catchers and infielders have done at the plate for the first two months of the season. Conveniently -- since yesterday afternoon's injury fest is too depressing to talk about right now -- I am going to cover the team's outfielders and designated hitters today.

CENTER FIELD    AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .266     .336     .457     .793     .265
League         .270     .325     .404     .729     .247
 
BREAKDOWN: 90% Torii Hunter, 10% Lew Ford

Torii Hunter's 5-for-5 game Wednesday night bumped his season totals all the way up from a putrid .238/.305/.398 to .258/.322/.441, which is right in line with his .266/.319/.458 career numbers. That, along with the fact that Lew Ford has hit .316/.453/.579 in about 10% of the playing time while subbing for Hunter, gives the Twins surprisingly good production in center field.

I say surprisingly good because .266/.336/.457 doesn't look all that spectacular on the surface. However, if you dig a little deeper you'll see that AL centerfielders are having a down year pretty much across-the-board. Not only have the Twins' centerfielders been about 7% better than league average, they rank third behind only Boston and Tampa Bay with a collective .794 OPS at the position.

LEFT FIELD      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .286     .344     .432     .776     .263
League         .276     .337     .426     .763     .258
 
BREAKDOWN: 90% Shannon Stewart, 10% Lew Ford

While Ford's great hitting while subbing for Hunter brings the team's center-field numbers up, his .261/.292/.432 performance while subbing for Shannon Stewart 10% of the time brings the left-field numbers down a bit. Despite that, and Stewart hitting a mediocre .289/.350/.437 as a leftfielder so far, the Twins have gotten above-average offensive production from the position.

Just like in center field, left field hitting in the AL is down this year. While the average AL leftfielder hit .281/.347/.453 last season, they are hitting just .276/.337/.426 this season, a drop of nearly 5%. Stewart seems to be heating up after a slow start, hitting .316/.373/.518 in May, so left field figures to be a pretty solid offensive strength for the season.

RIGHT FIELD     AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .267     .366     .400     .766     .265
League         .269     .349     .446     .795     .269
 
BREAKDOWN: 85% Jacque Jones, 15% Lew Ford

Despite the excitement over Jacque Jones' hot start, this is where the Twins' outfield has actually been the weakest. Jones' .222/.286/.300 May has him hitting .277/.377/.432 on the year as a rightfielder, and Ford's awful .219/.316/.250 subbing for him 15% of the time drags the collective numbers at the position down even further. Add it all up and the Twins' rightfielders have done very well getting on base -- thanks in large part to Jones' sudden discovery of "the walk" -- but have slugged a combined .400.

Jones' huge April walk total is looking more and more flukish these days, as he walked just seven times in May. I wouldn't expect him to keep up the big gap between his batting average and his on-base percentage, so he's going to have to start hitting for average and power again at some point or the Twins will fall further behind the pack offensively at the position. Ford hitting a little better when he's not in center field wouldn't hurt either.

DESIG. HITTER   AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .265     .333     .386     .719     .246
League         .255     .335     .416     .754     .255
 
BREAKDOWN: 50% Ford, 25% LeCroy, 10% Stewart, 10% Hunter, 5% Tiffee

Here's another spot where the Twins have been surprisingly weak this season. Ford has hit .292 with a .358 on-base percentage while DHing, but he's only slugging .396 with zero homers in 96 at-bats. Matthew LeCroy has provided some power in 25% of the playing time, slugging .533, but he's hitting just .267 with a .333 OBP. Overall, the Twins' designated hitters have been about 4% worse than the AL average.

While Ford isn't a bad DH, the problem is that a lot of his value comes from defense. He is a good outfielder with a strong arm, and is capable of playing all three outfield spots well. But when you stick him at DH most of the time, he has absolutely no defensive value and his otherwise solid hitting (when combined with good defense) isn't anything special. All of which makes this the spot where the Twins could make the easiest meaningful upgrade.

Either by trading Jones while sticking Ford in right field full time or simply platooning Ford and Jones, the Twins could open up DH for a right-handed power bat. It's most likely just wishful thinking, of course, but the opportunity for a relatively clean upgrade at the position coincides nicely with one of the team's biggest needs.

And for those of you who have been e-mailing on the topic recently, LeCroy is not that right-handed bat. While one of my favorite players and a very nice hitter to have on a team, LeCroy just doesn't hit right-handed pitching well enough to be in the lineup on an everyday basis. Against lefties he's great, hitting .262/.354/.476 this year and .302/.363/.518 from 2002-2004, but against righties he has hit just .260/.351/.400 this season and .257/.303/.420 over the past three.

OVERALL         AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .269     .336     .404     .740     .252
League         .263     .327     .417     .744     .251

The Twins have been almost exactly average offensively this year, and as a result rank seventh in the AL with 4.53 runs per game. While in years past they've hit for disproportionately high batting averages, the Twins rank just eighth with a .268 average this season. To offset that, they've walked more than usual, ranking fourth in the league. That's what Jones walking in April, Joe Mauer staying healthy, and not having Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas in the lineup will do for a team's walk rate. Suddenly the Twins aren't quite such hackers.

Here's a nice, neat, position-by-position breakdown using GPA:

POS       AL      MIN        +/-
C       .232     .256     +10.3%
1B      .263     .286     + 8.8%
2B      .245     .216     -11.8%
SS      .242     .244     - 0.8%
3B      .228     .248     - 8.1%
LF      .263     .258     + 1.9%
CF      .265     .247     + 7.3%
RF      .265     .269     - 1.5%
DH      .246     .255     - 3.5%

Essentially the Twins have been excellent offensively at catcher, first base, and center field, horrible at second base and third base, and treaded water everywhere else. I think there is reason to believe the production from here on out will be better at both second base (no more Rivas) and third base (Michael Cuddyer has hit a little after a horrible April), in which case the offense could take a step up between now and the end of the year.

Considering the quality of their pitching and defense, the Twins really would only need to get themselves in the upper third of the league offensively to be considered a championship-level team. I think they can do that, which is why I've been telling everyone who will listen (and some who won't) that this has the potential to be the best Twins team since at least 1991.

Find a good right-handed stick for the middle of the lineup and this offense could really take off. That is, of course, is they can avoid having their key hitters drop like flies, one after another.

Today at The Hardball Times:
- News, Notes and Quotes (June 3, 2005) (by Aaron Gleeman)
- And Let The Screwing Continue (by John Brattain)

Today's Picks (41-38, +$225):
New York (Mussina) -140 over Minnesota (Lohse)
Toronto (Halladay) -150 over Oakland (Etherton)

Saturday's Picks:
St. Louis (Marquis) -140 over Houston (Rodriguez)
Texas (Park) -160 over Kansas City (Lima)

Sunday's Picks:
Chicago (Buehrle) -130 over Cleveland (Sabathia)

Thursday, June 02, 2005

How's the Hitting? (Part 1)

I examined the Twins' defense yesterday, so today I thought it would make sense to look at how the hitters are doing after two months of the season. I'll examine the catchers and infielders now, and cover the outfielders and designated hitters tomorrow (so Torii Hunter catches a break and gets looked at after his career night).

And away we go ...

CATCHER         AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .284     .355     .384     .739     .256
League         .247     .304     .380     .684     .232
 
BREAKDOWN: 70% Joe Mauer, 25% Mike Redmond, 5% Corky Miller

While Corky Miller barely got off the bench before being sent back down to Triple-A, his 0-for-11 performance at the plate drags the Twins' collective batting average at catcher down from .302 to .284. Despite that, the Twins' catchers have been about 10% better than the American League average for the position. Joe Mauer has been fantastic, hitting .318/.387/.447 in about 70% of the playing time, and Mike Redmond's solid .340 on-base percentage makes up for the fact that he's slugging just .298.

One note before we move on to the first basemen: It is important to remember just how little offensive production catchers typically provide. The fact that AL catchers as a group are hitting .247/.304/.380 this season is exactly why the Twins were smart not to panic with Mauer's injury situation and immediately start prepping him for another position. At catcher, he's an absolute stud at the plate and gives the Twins a huge edge relative to the rest of the league.

FIRST BASE      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .287     .355     .503     .857     .286
League         .266     .339     .442     .781     .263
 
BREAKDOWN: 65% Justin Morneau, 20% Matthew LeCroy, 15% Terry Tiffee

Just like the catchers, the Twins' first basemen have been about 10% better than league average, producing a better-than-average batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. And that is despite Justin Morneau getting only 65% of the playing time because of an early stint on the disabled list. Minnesota first basemen are on pace to combine for 30 homers and 120 RBIs this year, after hitting .255 with 20 homers and 80 RBIs last season.

SECOND BASE     AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .254     .300     .322     .622     .216
League         .266     .322     .402     .724     .245
 
BREAKDOWN: 60% Nick Punto, 40% Luis Rivas

Despite finally switching from Luis Rivas to Nick Punto this year, second base continues to be a spot where the Twins are well behind the pack offensively. Punto has done his part to change that, with a .291/.330/.408 performance in 60% of the playing time that actually beats the AL average at the position, but Rivas drags the overall numbers down by stinking it up to the tune of .203/.253/.203 in 40% of the playing time.

SHORTSTOP       AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .259     .317     .397     .714     .242
League         .265     .321     .400     .721     .244
 
BREAKDOWN: 50% Jason Bartlett, 40% Juan Castro, 10% Nick Punto

Despite playing at Triple-A Rochester for the past couple weeks, Jason Bartlett has had about half the playing time at shortstop, hitting .242/.310/.374, while Juan Castro has hit .272/.306/.432 playing 40% of the time. Add in Punto's .286/.412/.357 in about 10% of the playing time, and the Twins' shortstops have been almost exactly average offensively this year.

Considering the team began the season with a rookie starter, sent him down to Triple-A when he struggled at the plate, and then replaced him with one of the worst hitters of the past 10 years, league-average is a pretty nice place to be. I expect the team's collective stats at the position to go down the longer Castro starts, but if they can stay within shouting distance of the AL average it should be considered a relative success.

Oh, and in case you're wondering, last year's shortstops (almost entirely Cristian Guzman) were about 7% worse than league-average offensively.

THIRD BASE      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS      GPA
Twins          .257     .307     .361     .668     .228
League         .259     .324     .409     .733     .248
 
BREAKDOWN: 85% Michael Cuddyer, 15% Terry Tiffee

While at first glance the Twins' combined .257/.307/.361 performance from third basemen this year looks absolutely horrible, it's not so bad when you actually compare it to the AL average. This has been a down year for third basemen across the league, so the Twins are only about 8% behind the league average. That's not good, of course, but it's not as bad as the 11% worse than average the second baseman are at.

Michael Cuddyer has had about 85% of the playing time at third base, and his .266/.330/.373 line there is actually just 2% below average. What has dragged the team's collective numbers at the position down is Terry Tiffee hitting just .158/.190/.211 in about 15% of the playing time. With all that said, when you add in some shoddy defense, third base (and by extension, Cuddyer) has been a major weakness this year.

Today at The Hardball Times:
- Some Graphs About the Padres (by Studes)

Today's Picks (41-37, +$425):
New York (Pavano) -200 over Kansas City (Jensen)

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Defense, with extra salt

There has been a lot of talk about the Twins' defense in my mailbox and on message boards of late, and the middle-infield combo of Nick Punto and Juan Castro put on quite a show last night. With that in mind, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some early season defensive statistics (which are always to be taken with C.C. Sabathia-sized grains of salt).

First, a few definitions ...

ZR = Zone Rating, the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone.

RF = Range Factor, (putouts + assists) / innings.

FLD% = Fielding Percentage, (putouts + assists) / (putouts + assists + errors).

IN/DP = Innings played at the position per double play turned.

Okay, now that we have those out of the way, here are some shortstop numbers:

SHORTSTOP             ZR      RF     FLD%     IN/DP
Jason Bartlett      .831    4.24     .960      17.2
Juan Castro         .791    5.13     .991      13.6
Cristian Guzman     .823    4.65     .983      12.7

Cristian Guzman's stats are from last season with the Twins, while Jason Bartlett's and Juan Castro's numbers are from this season. Also, Castro's numbers are only from his time at shortstop, not from second base or third base.

If the above is to be believed, Castro has had more chances than either Guzman or Bartlett (which is often due to the pitchers on the mound), while Bartlett has been the best of the three at getting to balls in his zone, but the worst of the three at committing errors and turning double plays. Those stats do make some sense in Bartlett's case.

I thought Bartlett's range was pretty great, as he got to several balls that I felt Guzman never would have come close to. At the same time, he booted more than his share of fairly routine plays and wasn't great turning two, both of which are reflected in the numbers. Of course, if you buy into all that you also have to buy into Castro fielding a lower percentage of balls in his zone than Guzman did, which is a tough sell on me.

Now let's look at some third base numbers:

THIRD BASE            ZR      RF     FLD%     IN/DP
Michael Cuddyer     .752    2.74     .921      42.3
Corey Koskie        .779    2.56     .963      71.7

Again, Corey Koskie's numbers are from last season with the Twins, while Michael Cuddyer's numbers are from this season and only from his time at third base.

These numbers are a little more straightforward. Basically, Cuddyer has had more chances at third base than Koskie did last season, but has made a lower percentage of the plays on balls in his zone and has committed more errors. All of those things match up with what my eyes tell me, although that doesn't really make the stats any more or less likely to be "true."

Let's move over to second base:

SECOND BASE           ZR      RF     FLD%     IN/DP
Nick Punto          .889    4.99     .992      16.1
Luis Rivas          .839    4.61    1.000      13.4

Punto has had more chances than Luis Rivas and he's fielded a higher percentage of the balls in his zone than Rivas. Their fielding percentages are both nearly perfect, as Punto has the lone error in 426.2 innings between them, and Rivas has turned slightly more double plays per inning. Like with Cuddyer and Koskie, those numbers -- from Punto making more plays and showing more range to Rivas still turning a great double play -- match up with what my eyes tell me.

And finally, here are the percentage of balls in play that the Twins, as a team, have converted into outs:

YEAR      DER
2001     .700
2002     .705
2003     .701
2004     .688
2005     .711

Again, if those numbers are to be believed, the Twins' defense has been pretty damn good this season. Their DER ranks fourth in the AL and is better than in any of the past four seasons. Now, a pitching staff plays a role in a team's DER (although how big a role is the subject of much debate), and Twins pitchers have allowed the third-lowest percentage of line drives in the league this year.

In my mind, the Twins are better defensively at second base and shortstop, but worse at third base. They are also likely worse at first base, but a) first base is almost impossible to judge based on basic defensive numbers, and b) Justin Morneau played about half the season there in 2004. Catcher and the three outfield spots should be pretty similar to last year, so the swap of pluses at second and short and a minus at third might just be why the DER is up a tick.

UPDATE: I couldn't find mainstream confirmation of any of the moves as of midnight, but the Twins have reportedly placed Rivas on the 15-day disabled list, optioned Terry Tiffee to Triple-A, and called up Michael Ryan and Brent Abernathy. Personally, I think sending Rivas to Triple-A would have sent a bigger, better message, unless of course he's actually hurt.

In general though, these four moves probably have as small an impact on a baseball team as four moves could possibly have. The Twins lose a little defensive versatility by swapping Tiffee for Ryan as their lefty pinch-hitter, but they are equally mediocre offensively and Tiffee had played himself out of any meaningful playing time at third base anyway. As I've written here a number of times, Abernathy is a solid backup infielder and he certainly deserves a look after hitting .328/.394/.520 at Rochester.

Today at The Hardball Times:
- Disappearing Numbers (by Aaron Gleeman)
- Business of Baseball Report (by Brian Borawski)

Today's Picks (40-35, +$530):
Atlanta (Smoltz) -150 over Washington (Armas)
Arizona (Webb) -105 over New York (Zambrano)
Toronto (Chacin) +110 over Seattle (Meche)

Monday, May 30, 2005

Twins Take 2 of 3 From Blue Jays

Yesterday's loss at the hands of Roy Halladay was frustrating to no end, but the fact is that taking two out of three games from a good Toronto team, on the road, is nothing to be disappointed about. Plus, any time Joe Mays is matched up against someone with a Cy Young award on his resume, expecting a win is silly.

Some notes on the series ...

I was very impressed with Orlando Hudson and Aaron Hill defensively. Hudson for his neverending range and hustle, and Hill for what looks like a great arm at third base. In fact, Hill's arm appears to be like Michael Cuddyer's arm, except he might actually have some idea where the tough throws are going to end up. Hudson has long been a favorite of mine, for whatever reason. He's not a great hitter and certainly has flaws, but he strikes me as someone I would really enjoy watching on a daily basis.

The lineup's collective effort against Halladay yesterday for pretty pathetic. There is no doubt that Halladay is a great pitcher, particularly when he is on top of his game like he was against the Twins, but hitters were flailing away at balls out of the strike zone early in the count all afternoon. At points it literally looked as if the Twins were trying to hurry their at-bats along in order to catch their plane out of the country.

Jacque Jones had an at-bat in the fifth inning that looked similar to what might happen if a coach agreed to let a player take a few more swings at the end of batting practice if the player promised to take them really quickly. Halladay kept tossing breaking balls down and out of the strike zone, and Jones chased them all day. Jones wasn't alone by a long shot, but that at-bat -- in which he swung at four out of five pitches he saw and struck out swinging -- wrapped up the whole afternoon.

As my favorite Blue Jays fan, Craig Burley (of Batter's Box and The Hardball Times), said to me shortly after the game, "This one was mailed in from the end of the first."

Of course, the Twins' starting pitching during the three-game series was pretty good too.

                   IP      H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR
Johan Santana     7.0      4     2      2      2      8      0
Kyle Lohse        7.0      6     1      1      0      3      0
Joe Mays          7.0     10     2      2      1      3      1

When a struggling pitcher and his pitching coach talk about making changes on the mound, it is usually nothing more than talk. In Kyle Lohse's case, there have definitely been fundamental changes in his approach. Pitching coach Rick Anderson appears to have convinced Lohse to simplify things on the mound, asking him to rely more on his fastball/sinker and slider than he has in the past. After nearly two years of struggling, Lohse has turned in three straight encouraging performances:

OPP      IP     H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR
TOR     6.0     7     2      2      2      1      0
CLE     7.1     7     2      2      2      1      0
TOR     7.0     6     1      1      0      3      0

That's not going to win any awards, but it is certainly a step in the right direction. It is increasingly clear that Lohse is transitioning from attempting to be a power pitcher to attempting to be a ground-ball pitcher, ala Carlos Silva. That is, throw strikes, keep things simple by working mostly with your fastball, and let the defense work for you.

Lohse entered this season with a career ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 0.96-to-1. Pitchers as a whole averaged about 1.25 grounders for every fly ball over the last couple years, which means Lohse's pre-2005 ground-to-fly ratio qualified him as a "fly-ball pitcher." All of which makes what he's done of late pretty intriguing. Over his last three starts, Lohse has induced 46 ground-ball outs, compared to just 17 fly-ball outs, for a ratio of 2.71-to-1. Only Brandon Webb (3.55-to-1), Derek Lowe (2.87), and Jake Westbrook (2.72) induced a higher percentage of grounders than that last season.

Lohse has never been able to rack up a lot of strikeouts, regardless of his style of pitching. And if you're not going to strike anyone out, you're going to need to get a lot of ground balls. It is the reason guys like Silva and Lowe can succeed despite batters making such good contact against them, and it is why I am suddenly hopeful about Lohse's chances of again becoming the solid middle-of-the-rotation starter he once was.

Thanks in part to Lohse's sudden transformation and in part to Mays' return from the disabled list, the Twins' starting rotation now consists of three fairly extreme ground-ball pitchers. Once upon a time the Twins -- with starters like Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Eric Milton, and Rick Reed -- had one of the most fly-ball dominant staffs in all of baseball. It is an interesting development considering the strength of the defense has long been Torii Hunter and Jones in the outfield, and the infield has seen a whole slew of changes this year.

Speaking of the new infield, I got an e-mail from someone during Saturday's game that read, simply:

Ha. I thought you claimed Castro couldn't hit?!

That of course came moments after Juan Castro homered for the second straight day. You'll find no one on earth happier about Castro homering in back-to-back games than me, but let's at least try to be rational here. Even after homering twice against Toronto, Castro is hitting .268/.302/.427 on the year. Now, if he could keep that up for the entire season, he would be a very valuable player for the Twins and a bargain at a million bucks. The problem is that he won't.

Castro's homers shouldn't be especially shocking, because he has actually shown some decent home run power in the past. In fact, take a look at how his amazing power display so far this season (that's sarcasm, people) compares to what he did over the past three years:

               AB/HR     IsoP
2002-04         43.8     .132
2005            27.3     .159

Essentially, Castro has hit one "extra" homer this year, which accounts for the rise in his home run rate and his Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average). One extra home run in 82 at-bats goes beyond small sample-sizes into the realm of not meaning anything significant at all. In other words, if Castro doesn't hit a homer this week, he'll be right back at his regular homer rate from the past three years.

What has changed to give Castro decent all-around offensive numbers for the first time in his career is the fact that he's hitting .268. He's not in danger of winning any batting titles, but that is likely not a sustainable batting average for a guy who came into this season as a career .226 hitter in 1,599 at-bats and has hit higher than .250 just once.

I'll gladly eat a healthy serving of crow if Castro keeps this up, but let's wait until he has an at-bat total that isn't in double digits first. Oh, and just to be clear, I wrote the following in my "defense" of Jason Bartlett: "If the team had kept Bartlett at Triple-A this whole time, handing the job to Juan Castro or Nick Punto out of spring training, it would have been far less troubling than what has actually taken place." Castro starting at shortstop, by itself, isn't what I have a big problem with.

The Twins are now 29-20 on the year, which is a 96-win pace. Regardless of what the White Sox do -- and they certainly seem to be coming back down to earth in a hurry finally -- 96 wins will likely make the playoffs. Here's how this year's record through 49 games compares to the past four seasons:

YEAR      W      L     WIN%
2001     33     16     .673
2002     27     22     .551
2003     29     20     .592
2004     27     22     .551
2005     29     20     .592

Interestingly, the only year in the past five in which the Twins have been on pace to win significantly more games than they ended up winning at the end of the season was in 2001, when they started 33-16, faded horribly down the stretch, and missed the playoffs. In the past four years -- which includes three trips to the postseason and, hopefully, a fourth this season -- the Twins have gotten off to very similar starts, winning either 27 or 29 games out of their first 49.

Today at The Hardball Times:
- Murphy's A's (by Aaron Gleeman)

Today's Picks (39-33, +$690):
Chicago (Buehrle) -140 over Los Angeles (Washburn)
Toronto (Lilly) -100 over Seattle (Moyer)

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