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Thursday, June 16, 2005
Who Should the Timberwolves Draft? (Guest Column)With the 2005 NBA draft quickly approaching on June 28, I asked David Crockett to pen a guest column about the Timberwolves' options. In addition to having a cool name, David is a frequent contributor at my favorite basketball blog, KnickerBlogger.net, and knows a whole hell of a lot more about most of these draft-eligible players than I do.By David Crockett Before I dive into players, let me say a few words about this outsider's perception of the Timberwolves. When thinking about Minnesota's recent history I am struck by how the Wolves seem like the good kid who gets caught the one time he hangs out with the wrong crowd; and what's worse he gets the book thrown at him. Thinking about this franchise's "what ifs" must be maddening for its fans. What if Stephon Marbury hadn't forced a trade, but instead matured on a team with a better player, and more importantly a personality he couldn't dominate? What if the team's silly and illegal courtship of Joe Smith had been more reasonably punished rather than made into an example to end all examples? Of course "wouldahs, couldahs, and shouldahs" rarely elicit much sympathy in sports. Still, it's interesting to contemplate the "ifs" from time to time. All ifs aside, the big question facing the Wolves is where do they go from here? In order to answer the question it might be wise to take a quick look at where "here" is exactly. The 2004-2005 Season: The Wolves finished on the outside of the playoffs looking in, despite a late-season push to get back into the race. Perhaps even more damning than the final standings, however, is the fact that the team ended the season in such disarray. After being the darlings of the 2003-2004 playoffs the team and the franchise took a big step backward this year, and in the process lost a lot of luster in an awful hurry. (I will spare you any rehashing of the season-long saga of untimely injuries, a fired coach, rampant selfishness, and one player's struggle to feed his family.) Kevin McHale is now trying to dig out of the hole he largely dug for himself. He's staring at a future that does not appear nearly as bright as it did a year ago. McHale is managing a coaching search that hasn't generated nearly the interest one might hope, armed with only a franchise player, a late lottery pick (#14), and a late second-round pick (#47) capable of bringing immediate help. Though it seems cliche to suggest that this is a pivotal off-season in the franchise's short history, a look at Minnesota's contract situation confirms that cliches become cliches primarily because they're frequently true. Since the Wolves have commitments to only eight players for the upcoming season, along with Sam Cassell's and Michael Olowokandi's tradable deals entering their respective final seasons, McHale & Co. at least have the luxury of being able to enter the draft truly thinking "best player available." The front office can also entertain potential trades involving the picks. As I look at what is currently on the roster, outside of Kevin Garnett the Wolves need to get a lot more athletic. What Can You Find at #14? The early indications are that this is a reasonably deep draft, though one without a bona fide "can't miss" talent. The NBA is filled with more irrational exuberance at this time of the year than Wall Street has ever been, yet there are no bust-proof players in this draft. Everyone loves Marvin Williams, but they also concede that he is pure projection at this point. We know the athleticism is there, but no one is completely certain of where he will ultimately play or his basketball IQ. Andrew Bogut is extraordinarily skilled, but he's not Tim Duncan skilled. Chris Paul could be the most complete offensive player in this draft, but his blow-by speed may be somewhat off-set by his diminutive size. He also doesn't play on the defensive end. Nonetheless, even recognizing that each player should come with "buyer beware" tattooed on his arm, talented players will be available throughout the draft. So a team with the right expectations along with quality evaluations should be able to walk away from this draft with a player it can use. Looking at the 14th overall pick over the past six drafts suggests that the odds of finding a player who can contribute aren't necessarily bad: YEAR PLAYER SCHOOL DRAFTED BY STATUSThough none of the six players taken 14th qualifies as a star, three are starters or regulars in their respective team's rotations, and the jury is still out on former Minnesota Golden Gopher Kris Humphries, the 2004 draftee. What Do the Timberwolves Need? I would list Minnesota's priorities, in order, as: 1) point guard, 2) swingman, 3) center. Point Guards You see, this profession is filled to the brim with unrealistic motherf***ers. Motherf***ers who thought their ass would age like wine. If you mean it turns to vinegar, it does. If you mean it gets better with age, it don't.Up until this year, Sam Cassell almost had me convinced that he might be the exception to Marsellus Wallace's dictum. But although Cassell has aged reasonably well, he has indeed begun to sour. He played well offensively when healthy last year, but played his lowest game total (59) since 2000. Sam-I-Am's offensive production was good (PER of 18.6 on 48.4% efg), but was basically offset by his abhorrent defense. According to 82games.com Cassell "held" opposing point guards to a PER of 17.9 on 47.9% efg, with 26% of their shots coming from close. With Cassell missing so much action, much of the burden for running the offense fell to Troy Hudson. This season was, to put it kindly, a struggle for Hudson. Always a scoring point guard, he apparently never found his rhythm. His PER of 12.1 on 46.8% efg simply confirms what must have been painfully obvious to every Wolves fan; Hudson couldn't throw it in the ocean this year. However, he was an even graver disappointment on defense. Opposing points shot 47.9% efg and compiled a PER of 18.4. Though both Cassell and Hudson are due to return for the upcoming season, it would be unwise to expect much better defense from Cassell or a gigantic bounce-back in offensive production from Hudson. The Wolves could certainly use a young point guard to groom, particularly one who is a defender and playmaker. So let's take a look at the college candidates, ignoring in this entry high schoolers and international players for whom I do not have access to stats or game recordings. Player, School: Chris Paul, Wake Forest Availability: Top 5 Comment: A primo offensive player, but not much on defense. McHale would have to trade up to get him. Player, School: Deron Williams, Illinois Availability: Top 6 Comment: My favorite point guard in this draft; strength, handle, and IQ can contribute on any team. He's reportedly now down to 200 lbs. Player, School: Raymond Felton, North Carolina Availability: Top 12 Comment: No college player is better than Felton at pushing the ball at the defense. He's a comparable, but better prospect than T.J. Ford was because of his strength and improving shot. Player, School: Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech Availability: 13 to 27 Comment: I love Jack's all-around game, particularly his on ball defense and athleticism. Player, School: Nate Robinson, Washington Availability: 31 to 38 Comment: Exceptional on-ball defender and may be the best pound-for-pound athlete in the draft. Player, School: Luther Head, Illinois Availability: 31 to 40 Comment: I have little doubt Head will make a roster and contribute his rookie season. Player, School: John Gilchrist, Maryland Availability: 35 to free agent Comment: He has everything you could ask for from a physical standpoint, but comes with limited maturity and low basketball IQ. Player, School: Aaron Miles, Kansas Availability: 35 to free agent Comment: Miles has all the intangibles, but lacks size and anything resembling a jump shot. I see Williams as a perfect fit for the Wolves. He's an excellent passer and defender. Even without eye-popping speed he can play at any tempo because he understands when to get rid of the ball, and to whom. He would provide the Wolves a player who could come in and set up KG rather than simply live off his playmaking. Of course, this would mean the Wolves would need to explore trades to move up. Jack may be a possibility at 14, though the Wolves might be able to trade down and still nab him. Jack's calling card is his defense and penetration. Should the Wolves wait to address point guard until the second round, Gilchrist has as much natural ability as any player at the position. He's also had a series of well-publicized disagreements with Maryland coach Gary Williams, who appears to have all but begged Gilchrist to go the pros. Swingmen The situation for Minnesota's swing players was a real mixed bag. Latrell Sprewell, who played over a quarter of the team's minutes at either off-ball guard or small forward, is not aging like wine. His age-34 season has left the taste of vinegar (sans collard greens) in the mouths of many in the Twin Cities. First, his efg (45%) and overall PER (12.1) were Hudson bad. Second, though still a good defender, his reputation as a shut-down defender seems a thing of the past now. Opposing shooting guards and small forwards shot 48.2% and 48.7% efg respectively against him (PERs: 15.8 and 16.7), both far above what he could produce offensively. Finally, he destroyed virtually all the good will he'd built up from the previous season with the fans. Wally Szczerbiak, on the other hand, played well offensively. He certainly shot the ball well (54% efg and 17.1 PER), which is good since he offers so little as a rebounder. Perhaps more importantly he managed to see 80 games and more than half the team's minutes at small forward. He also did a surprisingly decent job on the defensive end, holding opposing small forwards to a below average PER of 13.2. With Sprewell very unlikely to re-sign, should the Wolves look to address this position via the draft I suspect they will narrow their focus to true wing players rather than "tweeners" that play both forward positions. Player, School: Marvin Williams, North Carolina Availability: Top 4 Comment: We know the athleticism is there. What we don't know is how much game he actually has. Player, School: Danny Granger, New Mexico Availability: 10 to 20 Comment: I think he's the best "true" small forward available. He's a do-it-all type; think of Josh Howard with a more efficient offensive game. Player, School: Antoine Wright, Texas A&M Availability: 10 to 18 Comment: He's a willing defender and a potentially dynamite scorer. He has an NBA-ready body. Player, School: Kennedy Winston, Alabama Availability: 20 to 35 Comment: Winston has a great body and a great stroke, but can be lazy defensively and is turnover prone. Player, School: Francisco Garcia, Louisville Availability: 20 to 35 Comment: Very skilled and has a high basketball IQ. He'll need to find a team able to live with his athletic deficiencies. Player, School: Tiras Wade, LA-Lafayette Availability: 35 to 45 Comment: Big-time scorer with nice size from a small conference (Sunbelt). Player, School: Salim Stoudamire, Arizona Availability: 31 to 45 Comment: A shooting specialist whose defense will allow him to stay on the floor. Also, he can run the point for a few minutes a night. Of the players listed I think Granger (note his consistent rebounding and rising points per shot attempt) is the best overall fit in this draft for Minnesota when you consider which players will likely be available at #14. With several teams targeting Williams it seems unlikely that Minnesota could come up with a package enticing enough to move into the second overall spot. At 6'8" and 225 lbs Granger already has NBA athleticism and size. He can play either wing position. He's a good defender, excellent rebounder, and he can handle the ball. Centers Nearing the end of the Olowokandi experiment, the Wolves may wish to identify a young center to begin to groom. Certainly, the team hopes that Ndudi Ebi continues to progress at power forward, but he seems a long way away from contributing. Given the length of this article I won't detail how little production the team got from whoever played alongside Garnett at center this season once Mark Madsen was injured. I'll just introduce the candidates. Player, School: Andrew Bogut, Utah Availability: Top 5 Comment: He is a good -- not great -- athlete who can control a game with his skill and passing. Player, School: Chris Taft, Pittsburgh Availability: 8 to 15 Comment: The size and willingness to use it are all what you're looking for in a big PF/C, yet Taft has never dominated. People keep waiting for the light to come on. He could slide based on interviews. Player, School: Channing Frye, Arizona Availability: 8 to 15 Comment: Disclaimer: I'm an Arizona grad. Frye doesn't have superstar potential, but he also doesn't have a lot of holes in his game. He's a more athletic version of Michael Doleac, a version that blocks shots. Player, School: Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut Availability: 8 to 20 Comment: There is much to like about Villanueva. He runs the floor well. He shoots a high percentage. He rebounds and blocks shots. He is 6'11". Can he play center at all? Player, School: Randolph Morris, Kentucky Availability: 15 to 28 Comment: I know the league is starved for big players but if this kid doesn't go back to Kentucky something is dreadfully wrong with the NBA. He struggled to stay on the floor at Kentucky when he was basically the only center in the entire SEC. Player, School: Jared Homan, Iowa State Availability: 40 to free agent Comment: If you're looking for a Madsen type who ONLY rebounds and blocks shots in the second round, he's your guy. Of this group, Taft, should he slide into the teens, might be worth the risk. He's very physical, has the body to play center, and has a lot of upside. He could be the true power player the team has coveted. He'll need to be coached up though. It's not clear that the light has necessarily come on for him just yet. Frye could ably backup either center or power forward. His offense in the NBA will come primarily from running the floor and off the pick-and-pop. He's deadly out to 20 feet. Villanueva has a somewhat similar game. Today at The Hardball Times: - Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week (by Studes) - Scout's Honor: A Review (by J.C. Bradbury) Today's Picks (54-50, +$145): Pittsburgh (Perez) +200 over New York (Johnson) Saturday's Picks: Arizona (Webb) -100 over Cleveland (Elarton) St. Louis (Morris) -190 over Tampa Bay (Hendrickson) Houston (Oswalt) -140 over Kansas City (Carrasco) Sunday's Picks: St. Louis (Suppan) -160 Tampa Bay (Waechtler) Atlanta (Davies) -105 over Cincinnati (Hudson) Boston (Clement) -190 over Pittsburgh (Wells) San Diego (May) +250 over Minnesota (Santana)     
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
Quad ThreesSee, yesterday's "San Francisco (Foppert) +260 over Minnesota (Santana)" pick doesn't look so silly now, does it? Of course, silly or not unfortunately it was wrong. Actually, what the hell am I saying? Fortunately it was wrong.It was nice to see the Twins come up with a clutch hit in a close game for once, because it's been frustrating watching them come up empty in those spots over the last couple weeks. The only bad part about last night's 11-inning win is that Johan Santana got a no-decision. He was a little shaky early, but started cruising after the fourth inning and ended up with the following line for the game: IP H R ER BB SO HRI was a little surprised that Ron Gardenhire didn't let Santana come back out for the top of the ninth inning at 102 pitches, but I agree with his decision to turn things over to a rested bullpen at that point. And, as usual, the bullpen was great. Juan Rincon, Joe Nathan, and Jesse Crain combined for three scoreless innings, giving up just one hit, and Crain picked up the win when Shannon Stewart singled home Michael Cuddyer with the winning run. Crain is now 6-0, despite pitching a total of just 26 innings in 28 appearances, and two of his wins have come when Santana started. The Twins are 11-3 with Santana on the mound, but Santana is "only" 7-2. Now, I'm the last person in the world to get worked up over wins and losses, especially when the team has won 80% of his starts, but the lack of wins will inevitably hurt Santana's Cy Young candidacy. In fact, I saw a poll on ESPN.com the other day that asked, "Who will win the American League Cy Young?" The sad part was that there were five pitchers listed as choices and Santana wasn't even one of them. The idea that Santana hasn't been one of the top five pitchers in the AL this year is silly, of course, but that won't matter come voting time. I'd hate to see Santana toss 230 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 270 strikeouts, and end up third in the voting because he has a dozen no-decisions and Crain has a dozen wins. On the other hand, Santana was just 4-4 with a 4.84 ERA after 14 starts last year, so it's probably safe to say he's not exactly out of the running. Aside from Crain improving to 6-0, the most amazing stat from last night's game is that Joe Mauer stole his fourth base of the season. Despite being a catcher with the second-most-talked-about surgically repaired knee in baseball and a recent groin injury on top of it, he has more steals than Stewart and the same number as Lew Ford. To which I say ... STOP RUNNING JOE! Now, for a report on yesterday's live poker outing ... Every time I play live poker, I find myself wondering why exactly I am there, rather than just playing online. There are so many advantages to playing online that it seems silly not to, yet there is something continuously appealing to me about driving somewhere and waiting on a list for an hour to play at a slow pace with weird people. After about two hours at the table and with a few callers in front of me, I limped in with pocket threes and saw a couple callers behind me. The flop came 3-3-5, giving me my first four-of-a-kind ever at a live game. It was checked around to me and I checked, figuring the five on the board didn't really give anyone a chance to make a decent hand that I could make some money from. The turn was an eight, with no flush draws on the board. Again, not much chance for someone to think they made a decent hand, so I checked and hoped someone behind me would bet. They didn't, and the river bought an equally useless ten. I obviously had to stop checking at that point, so I bet out and watched everyone but one woman fold. She called, flipping over ace-high, and I sheepishly showed my quads. I am convinced now that I played the hand horribly, because slow-playing in a multi-way pot with an extremely loose table is silly. Doing it on both the flop and the turn is just stupid. However, I am unsure if even the one caller would have come along had I bet out at any point, because part of the reason why she called with ace-high on the river was that no one had shown any sign of strength until that point. No matter how I played it, I don't think I was going to get much more than a couple bets out of the table. That was basically the way the whole day went, as I got very few good cards and connected with even fewer flops. The rare times I did hit something, no one gave me any action. I spent the whole day floating between being about $25 up and $25 down. Then I found myself in a very interesting hand. With the button in front of me and two limpers already in the pot, I limped with pocket eights. The small blind folded, the big blind checked, and we went four-handed to the flop. It came 3-3-8, giving me a full house, eights over threes. I played it slow on the flop, simply calling a bet in front of me, and then sprang into action with a raise when the turn brought a harmless six. That narrowed the field down to me and an elderly gentleman sitting to my right who had been playing about 90% of the hands all day while complaining about his "bad luck." A seven came on the river, and we started raising and re-raising. When a pot is heads up on the river, the raises are unlimited. At some point, after re-raising him several times and being re-raised right back, I said, "Hold on, now I have to study this board." I looked at it, and couldn't fathom what he was holding. He had limped in, simply called on the flop, called on the turn, and then called a re-raise on the turn. No sign of aggression at any point, even when re-raised on a street with "big" bets. It seemed like the seven on the river -- which didn't make a flush -- must have really helped him. So, I figured he must have made a straight. Perhaps 9-10? Or maybe even 4-5? I mean, what else could he be raising and re-raising with on a 3-3-8-6-7 board? Maybe he even had pocket sevens, in which case he rivered himself into a lesser full house. Well, I found out after finally putting an end to the re-raising simply out of curiosity. Pocket threes. Those two hands are essentially yesterday's live poker experience in a nut shell. I limp in with pocket threes, flop quads, and make less than I wasted tipping dealers all day. The guy next to me limps in with pocket threes, flops quads, and makes a small fortune when the jackass to his left keeps re-raising into him with a full house. Today at The Hardball Times: - Carrying The Load (by Craig Burley) - Business of Baseball Report (by Brian Borawski) Today's Picks (54-49, +$245): Cincinnati (Harang) +175 over Boston (Arroyo)
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Gone FishingI'm heading out to Canterbury Park to play some live poker today, but I'll leave you with a few Twins-related links to check out:Today at The Hardball Times: - Game In Review: Seattle at Washington (by Studes) - Enjoy It While It Lasts (by Ben Jacobs) Today's Picks (54-46, +$575): Colorado (Francis) +160 over Cleveland (Westbrook) San Diego (Peavy) -130 over Detroit (Johnson) San Francisco (Foppert) +260 over Minnesota (Santana)
Monday, June 13, 2005
Too Much Hee SeopI'm not sure what to say about this weekend's series against the Dodgers, other than that it was a wasted opportunity. A couple different moves or better execution in a few key spots and the Twins sweep. Instead, they lost two out of three and are now 5.5 games behind the White Sox.For all the talk about having a great, deep bullpen, Terry Mulholland sure does show up in a lot of key spots. I watched Friday's game while chatting with Jon Weisman and his fine, Dodger-loving readers over at Dodger Thoughts. When Mulholland came in from the bullpen in the ninth inning, I contributed to the ongoing conversation by saying, "I think I'm going to throw up." Literally a minute after I typed that, Hee Seop Choi hit a walk-off homer. It was just one of six (yes, six) home runs Choi hit during the three-game series, including three in a row off Brad Radke yesterday afternoon. The fact that the Twins easily could have won either of the games they lost, despite Choi's power display, makes things all the more frustrating. The good news is that the Twins have Johan Santana on the mound tomorrow against the free falling Giants, and they are still three games up in the Wild Card standings and owners of the second-best record in the league. The Dodgers, through all their ups and downs, are a good team, and they got a Herculean effort from Hee Seop Choi this weekend. Losing two tough games to them under those circumstances is not the end of the world. The other good news that can be taken from the series against the Dodgers is that the Twins don't play in the National League. Not because it's a tougher league or anything like that. I just don't think I could handle a whole season of Ron Gardenhire playing what he thinks is an "NL style" while having to make decisions about pinch hitting for pitchers every game. I was very sad that local blackout rules stopped me from hearing my favorite announcer, Vin Scully, call a game involving my favorite team. But Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven were joined on the Twins' TV broadcast by the highly enjoyable Mudcat Grant. Listening to Grant was like listening to Blyleven before I grew tired of his considerable quirks. Plus, it was a lot of fun to hear and read all about the 1965 World Series for the past few days. One note before I leave you with a link to my article today at THT: Sign ups for "Twins Blogger Night" at the Metrodome have started. To read more about it, check out my entry from Friday. To sign up for the event, click here. If you don't have plans for next Tuesday, the 21st, you should definitely sign up. I'm not sure how many people will be there beyond the bloggers (and Tony Oliva), but even the small blog-related gatherings I've gone to in the past have been a lot of fun. Today at The Hardball Times: - Notes From the Weekend (by Aaron Gleeman) - Thrusting Themselves Forward (by Craig Burley) Today's Picks (54-45, +$675): St. Louis (Suppan) +140 over Toronto (Halladay)
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |