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Friday, August 19, 2005
Link-O-RamaSince Marko wasn't a true point guard, couldn't create his own shot, and had no leadership abilities whatsoever, I never understood what he brought to the table -- he's your classic Euro who looks great on paper, but when you watch him night after night, you can't stop picking his game apart. He's also one of the five or six worst decision makers I've ever seen at the end of games, the kind of guy who leaves you shaking your head as you're walking out of the arena, saying, "How could they have the last shot and not even hit the rim?" I couldn't stand him.Ouch. They're going to be at the bottom again. ... I know for a fact that Kevin Garnett is disappointed. Kevin wants some guys he can go to war with. ... If they think Marko Jaric is a replacement for me, they're out of their minds. I'm happy for him. I'm happy he got paid. But that's not an upgrade. As players, we know.At the very least watching Jaric this season will be interesting, because clearly the Wolves see something in him that the majority of people do not. They've apparently been trying to get him for quite a while now and gave up an awful lot for the right to hand him a six-year, $40-million deal. As for Cassell, he wasn't exactly able to "go to war" much last season, and he'll turn 36 years old in November. Also, most wars involve playing defense, as well as offense, and Cassell was about as interested in that last season as I am in the WNBA. Canterbury Park Holding Corp. profit fell 27.9 percent in the second quarter of 2005, as gains from poker were offset by competition from online gaming, the company reported Friday.That's a huge dropoff for a business that was reportedly booming, but it should come as no surprise to anyone who has read my numerous rants about the problems with live poker. As I wrote after coming back from the card club in June: Every time I play live poker, I find myself wondering why exactly I am there, rather than just playing online. There are so many advantages to playing online that it seems silly not to, yet there is something continuously appealing to me about driving somewhere and waiting on a list for an hour to play at a slow pace with weird people.Add in having to tip dealers and waitresses while sitting in a smoky room and perhaps the profit loss would be more accurately characterized as "only 27.9%." But let's say it was noon, everyone was out doing work on their yard, and I couldn't get away with wearing shorts that hung past my knees. Frankly, I was a little disgusted by the amount of pasty, white leg I saw Sunday morning, so I can't even imagine what someone who isn't me would have been faced with had they come out to grab their newspaper or something. I believe someone should undertake a study designed to determine the correlation between having a fat guy in a neighborhood prior to the baggy shorts era and the number of people in the neighborhood who gouge their own eyes out with plasticware. I'm guessing the correlation is similar to the one between OPS and runs scored. Today at The Hardball Times: - News, Notes and Quotes (August 19, 2005) (by Aaron Gleeman) - Thar She Bl-O's!! (by John Brattain) Today's Picks (87-78, +$790): New York (Mussina) -110 over Chicago (Garland) Saturday's Picks: Milwaukee (Sheets) -130 over Houston (Rodriguez)     
Thursday, August 18, 2005
The Johan and Fatty ShowEven having said all I've said over the last few days, sweeping the White Sox, in Chicago, sure is a lot of fun. It's just a shame that beating them down the stretch in 2005 doesn't mean nearly as much as it did in years past, because last night's game and the entire three-game series would have created some pretty good memories (and brought back some nice ones too).The Twins completed the three-game sweep last night, as Johan Santana took a no-hitter into the seventh inning despite having the following defense behind him: C Mike RedmondNow, I think more of Justin Morneau, Nick Punto, and Jason Bartlett defensively than most people probably do, but that's still a brutal group. It's particularly bad in the outfield -- with Lew Ford in center field and two mediocre defensive infielders in the corners -- and Santana is a fly-ball pitcher. Thankfully defense doesn't matter a whole lot when you strike out 10 of the 33 batters you face, although at the very least Brent Abernathy's inexperience in left field probably cost Santana an out. Of course, perhaps more amazing than Santana taking a no-hitter deep into the game with that defense behind him is the fact that the above group -- which is probably worse offensively than defensively, as hard as that is to believe -- scored him five runs against Mark Buehrle. Actually, that's not quite true, because designated hitter Matthew LeCroy isn't listed above and he launched two solo homers in the first four innings.  LeCroy has basically been playing every day since Torii Hunter went on the disabled list, starting against both righties and lefties. LeCroy can't hit right-handed pitching at any sort of consistent level, but he has enough good performances against southpaws like Buehrle that Ron Gardenhire doesn't realize it. But while Gardenhire doesn't think numbers "mean a hill of beans," the proof is in the stats: AVG OBP SLG OPSHe's Albert Pujols against lefties and Tony Womack against righties, and this isn't just a one-year thing. For his career, LeCroy has an .882 OPS against lefties and a .697 OPS against righties. The bad news is that there's no reason why Gardenhire has to play LeCroy every day against righties, except for the fact that he has no ability to understand something as simple as platooning. The worse news is that, even if Gardenhire turned into Earl Weaver overnight, he wouldn't have anyone good to platoon LeCroy with at this point anyway. When you're starting guys like Abernathy and Michael Ryan in outfield corners, you're pretty much just picking names out of a hat.  Why would I possibly bring this up after LeCroy had such a great game? Because at some point over the next few days Gardenhire will talk about how well LeCroy has done as the everyday designated hitter. Meanwhile, what he really means, without even realizing it, is that LeCroy has done an extraordinary job as the DH against lefties and a horrible job as the DH against righties. Added together it's a good performance, but it's also one of many situations where the Twins squander opportunities to improve. That's probably enough criticism for one day, especially given how much negativity I've spewed over the last couple weeks and how well the team played against the White Sox. So let's end today's entry on a happy note, with a look at Santana's line for the season after an 8.1-inning, 10-strikeout, one-run performance last night: GS IP W L ERA SO BB OAVGEveryone seems to assume that he's out of the running for the AL Cy Young this year, but here's an interesting little tidbit: After 25 starts last season, Santana was 12-6 with a 3.25 ERA. He now leads the league in strikeouts and Quality Starts, ranks second in batting average against and OPS against, third in innings pitched, fifth in wins and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and seventh in ERA. One more tidbit to chew on while you send me angry e-mails for writing off a team that is now four games out of the postseason: Santana is 5-1 with a 1.82 ERA since the All-Star break this year, which means he is now 26-2 (yes, twenty-six and two) with a 2.02 ERA in 240 innings after the All-Star break during the past three seasons.  One of my favorite writers is coming to town today. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders and ESPN.com Page 2 will be signing copies of Pro Football Prospectus at The Bookcase of Wayzata tonight. Here are the details: What? Aaron Schatz meeting fans, signing books, and kissing babies. When? Tonight at 7 p.m. Where? The Bookcase of Wayzata: 607 East Lake Street (Mapquest) Why? Buy a good book, meet two guys named Aaron who write about sports on the internet, and get out of the house. For more details, you can call the bookstore at 952-473-8341, check out the bookstore's website, or check out Football Outsider's website. If you're planning to go, look for the fat guy in the Twins hat who is arguing with people about the Vikings trading Randy Moss, and say hello. Today at The Hardball Times: - Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week (by Dave Studeman) - The Fall and Rise of Jason Giambi, Part Two (by Larry Mahnken) Today's Picks (87-77, +$890): San Francisco (Tomko) +125 over Cincinnati (Ortiz)
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
There is no weather in a domeI've been hard on the Twins lately, essentially writing off their season (or at least their postseason chances) a few weeks ago. I wrote yesterday about how sad it was that the current series against the White Sox and subsequent, otherwise exciting series down the stretch carry little actual importance. Predictably, this has led to a lot of e-mailers and commenters calling me a "fair-weather fan."That is, of course, completely ridiculous. There is a huge difference between only rooting for a team when they're playing well (which is what I consider a "fair-weather fan") and recognizing that a team has been disappointing while objectively looking at their chances. I root for the Twins to win every game, and as was the case with last night's 16-inning marathon win over the White Sox, I almost always watch every pitch. There are a lot of sports fans who never give up hope with their favorite teams, applaud every move they make, and generally just praise the hell out of anything having to do with them. I am proud to say that I'm not one of those fans. When a team I thought was capable of making the playoffs goes into a major funk, stops hitting, and falls into the middle of the AL Wild Card pack, I don't think about how amazing it will be when they win every game for the rest of the season and streak into the playoffs. I think about how the team has fallen apart, through injuries, bad decisions, and disappointing individual performances. If that makes me a "bandwagon jumper" or a "fair-weather fan," so be it. I'll take that over being called a "homer" any day of the week and twice on Sid Hartman's birthday. I root just as hard for the Twins now as I did last year, when they won their third straight division title, or in 2000, when they lost 90+ games in a season for the fourth straight year. My fandom does not change with the Twins' record. I am a Twins fan, whether Justin Morneau goes zero for his next 200 at-bats, Luis Rivas gets called back up from Triple-A to bat cleanup, Terry Mulholland becomes the new closer, or Jason Bartlett spends the next dozen years in Rochester, New York. None of that precludes the team from disappointing me and none of that stops me from saying so. Tonight's pitching matchup of Johan Santana versus Mark Buehrle is a special one, featuring arguably the two best left-handed pitchers in all of baseball. Santana and Buehrle already faced off once this year, way back on April 10. The Twins won 5-2, getting to Buehrle for four runs early as Santana held the White Sox to two runs in seven innnings while racking up 11 strikeouts. Of course, back then Juan Castro was batting second, Matthew LeCroy was playing first base and hitting cleanup, Torii Hunter was in center field, Corky Miller was behind the plate, and Luis Rivas was at second base. How about a little praise for Michael Cuddyer, who hit the game-tying homer off Dustin Hermanson last night and later made a great defensive play that potentially saved the game. I've said this before, but it's worth repeating: Since an awful April, Cuddyer has been the best hitter on the entire team, hitting .279/.361/.460 with eight homers and 15 doubles in 226 at-bats over a four-month stretch. Shannon Stewart went 3-for-8 last night to snap an 0-for-17 skid over the previous four games. He has fallen well below average offensively for a left fielder, batting just .275/.326/.391 on the year. He's not walking, stealing bases, hitting for power, seeing a lot of pitches, getting on base, or playing good defense. In fact, among the 26 major-league left fielders who have at least 300 plate appearances this season, Stewart's .717 OPS ranks 24th. On the other hand, Joe Mauer went 3-for-7 with three doubles and a walk last night, raising his season totals to .297/.372/.433. Among the 25 big-league catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Mauer ranks fourth in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and fifth in OPS. Only Ivan Rodriguez (53.7%) has thrown out a higher percentage of base stealers than Mauer's 41.3%, and he ranks as the best catcher in all of baseball according to Win Shares. Today at The Hardball Times: - Youngsters and Oldsters (by Dave Studeman) Today's Picks (87-76, +$990): Kansas City (Carrasco) +190 over Seattle (Moyer)
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
A nice, meaningless winBecause of the Twins' lackluster play over the last couple months, Twins fans will lose the chance to watch their team play in October. The excitement that comes along with playoff baseball, even in the first round, is really something special, and not being able to experience that this season is a major loss.Before that -- before we miss out on pressure-packed games against the Yankees or Red Sox -- what we've also lost is games like last night. The Twins and White Sox, in Chicago, in the middle of August. And it was a good game, too. Yet it didn't matter one bit, as Chicago's lead in the AL Central became insurmountable a long time ago and the Twins' chances in the AL Wild Card race became slim just shortly after that. In years past, last night's game would have been exciting to watch. This year, it was just a three-hour reminder of how disappointing this season has been for the Twins. It felt like the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl that was a blowout at halftime. Both teams were trying their hardest, because it was important to them, but in the end the White Sox could always just point to the standings and say, "Big deal." That's the real shame of this season. Not that the Twins will miss out on the playoffs for the first time since 2001, but that they will miss out on meaningful, exciting, pressurized games in August and September. I never had visions of the Twins winning the World Series this year and there's nothing particularly wonderful about losing in the AL Division Series again. It was the journey to get there that I was looking forward to. Instead, we can look forward to another six weeks of games like last night. In the seventh inning of last night's game, with Justin Morneau at the plate for Minnesota and Damaso Marte on the mound for Chicago, Twins television play-by-play man Dick Bremer said the following: Morneau is hitting .246 on the year. He's hit .245 against left-handers, so it's really made very little difference who was pitching against him this year.Stuff like that makes me crazy. First, it shows an illogical worship of batting average. Second, it shows that Bremer isn't able to think critically about what he watches on a daily basis. And third, it shows that Bremer isn't really all that great when it comes to observing what he sees on a daily basis. Because anyone who thinks Morneau has been as good against lefties as he has against righties this season -- or even that it's remotely close -- just isn't paying enough attention: 2005 AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoP IsoDLike many Twins hitters over the last several years, Morneau has been close to useless against left-handed pitching this season, hitting .245 (Bremer would stop right there) with a horrible .278 on-base percentage and a powerless .364 slugging percentage. Against right-handed pitching, his batting average is nearly as low (Bremer would, again, stop right there), but he has a passable .332 on-base percentage and a very good .504 slugging percentage. Being able to look past batting average to see other facets of hitting isn't some advanced sabermetric concept, it's as simple as recognizing that all hits are not created equal. Morneau walks a fair amount and hits for excellent power against right-handed pitching, with 30 walks and 14 homers in 266 plate appearances. Against southpaws, he has just three walks and two homers in 117 plate appearances. The end result, despite nearly identical batting averages, is a 194-point gap in OPS that is more or less the same as the difference between Juan Castro (.661 OPS) and Derek Jeter (.842 OPS). It's almost 2006, people. Let's start acting like it. One of my favorite writers is coming to town this week. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders and ESPN.com Page 2 will be signing copies of Pro Football Prospectus at The Bookcase of Wayzata Thursday evening. Here are the details: What? Aaron Schatz meeting fans, signing books, and kissing babies. When? Thursday, August 18 at 7 p.m. Where? The Bookcase of Wayzata: 607 East Lake Street (Mapquest) Why? Buy a good book, meet two guys named Aaron who write about sports on the internet, and get out of the house. For more details, you can call the bookstore at 952-473-8341, check out the bookstore's website, or check out Football Outsider's website. Drop me an e-mail if you plan on attending. Today at The Hardball Times: - Franchises at Birth: The Colt .45s/Astros and the Mets (Part Two) (by Steve Treder) Today's Picks (87-75, +$1,090): Kansas City (Greinke) +160 over Seattle (Pineiro)
Monday, August 15, 2005
Cassell for JaricThe Timberwolves made a big trade over the weekend, sending Sam Cassell and next year's first-round pick (lottery protected) to the Clippers for Marko Jaric and Lionel Chalmers. The Wolves are saying all sorts of great things about Jaric, whom they have apparently been after for some time now. However, while I'm generally a big fan of tall, versatile, pass-first point guards -- and I think Jaric is a nice player -- this wasn't a particularly good move.New coach Dwane Casey has been stressing the fact that he wants the offense to play up tempo more often and he wants the roster to be more versatile both offensively and defensively. That's all music to my ears and Jaric certainly fits a fast-paced, ball-handling system better than Cassell does, but if that's been the plan all along why did the team draft Rashad McCants back in June? McCants is undersized for a shooting guard, doesn't handle the ball well enough to play point guard, and is limited defensively. In other words, he's exactly the sort of player you wouldn't look to acquire if your goal was to build a team of guys like Jaric. You'd have drafted, say, Danny Granger, who is versatile enough to play 3-4 different positions on both offense and defense. In fact, while all the "Scottie Pippen light" comparisons are a little over the top, I'd say Granger would have been the perfect guy to draft for the type of team Casey has since said he envisions the Wolves having. Instead, they now have McCants and Wally Szczerbiak to team up with Jaric, two guys who are about as far from fast-paced and versatile as you can get. The Cassell-Jaric deal looks to me like two steps forward and one step back. I would have been in favor of swapping Cassell for Jaric, but adding in the first rounder defeats part of the purpose of such a deal. If you want to get younger and more athletic and you're willing to deal the team's second-best player to do so, why give up what will likely be a top-20 pick in next year's draft in the process? Kevin McHale tried to answer that question by saying the team's "young base is pretty solid," which led to the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Jeff Shelman writing the following: It's also a reflection on how much younger the Timberwolves have gotten since missing the playoffs this spring.As my fellow Timberwolves fans can attest to, we've been hearing the "this team is really young" line for about the last decade or so. It was true when Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury first arrived on the scene, and even when Szczerbiak and William Avery were added to the Marbury-less team in 1999, but to describe the current roster as young is silly. Who are the young guys? Well, McCants, Ndudi Ebi, and Eddie Griffin, basically. Bracey Wright is young, but he's unlikely to make any sort of significant impact and, if past second-round picks are any indication, may not even make the team. Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Dwayne Jones are two guys who the team acquired for essentially nothing earlier this offseason, one after he was let go by his second NBA team and the other after no one drafted him. The actual core of the team isn't particularly young at all. Garnett is 29, Szczerbiak is 28, and now Jaric is 27. Troy Hudson is 29 and Michael Olowokandi is 30 (and it pains me to include them as the "core" of this team). You can't label a team "young" based on two first-round picks and a bunch of guys who will be lucky to shuttle back and forth from the end of the bench to the disabled list all season. The Boston Celtics are young. They have Tony Allen, Marcus Banks, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, and Delonte West. The Atlanta Hawks are young, with Josh Childress, Al Harrington, Zaza Pachulia, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams. The Portland Trail Blazers, with Jarrett Jack, Darius Miles, Travis Outlaw, Zach Randolph, Sebastian Telfair, and Martell Webster, are young. Last year's Chicago Bulls were young and they were good. They had Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, and Luol Deng. And do you know how they got young and good? They used a whole bunch of first-round picks. The Timberwolves are just mediocre and remaking their roster, which leads to things like talking up Eddie Griffin as a key part of your team or mentioning Bracey Wright, period. Today at The Hardball Times: - The Next Big Thing (by Aaron Gleeman) Today's Picks (87-74, +$1,240): Boston (Arroyo) -150 over Detroit (Douglass)
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |