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Friday, December 02, 2005
Link-O-RamaBeyond wondering why anyone would buy condoms online, I don't really have anything to add here. I basically just wanted to say thank you to whoever bought them. And congratulations. For instance, how many times have you seen "Seven secrets to losing weight" or "17 ways to improve your sex life" on some cover while waiting in line at the grocery store? Have you ever wondered why there are 17 secrets and not, say, 20? Anyway, I bring this up because the single best thing I read this week was "52 Reasons ESPN/ABC/Disney Sucks." My thoughts about the decline of ESPN are well known to anyone who reads this blog regularly, and the 52 reasons covered many of them despite focusing mostly on football-related stuff. Like Kevin over at BFLOBLOG.com, this one is my favorite: 21. Ron Jaworski's backseat role. His explanation of schemes and coverages is pure, elegant analysis. So he's forced to do it at 11:30 with a concussed madman and a very cute lesbian. That's a push, we suppose.And there are 51 more where that came from! It's amusing that Mick Jagger and Keith Richards are now considered a tame halftime show and it's amazing how quickly the Super Bowl went from Kid Rock, Britney Spears, and Justin Timberlake all lipsyncing on stage at the same time to Paul McCartney alone with a guitar. But how about something in between, like some decent music for the non-AARP crowd? The Twins are pursuing a deal for Florida Marlins second baseman Luis Castillo, according to a source familiar with negotiations.See, this is why I get upset when the Star Tribune goes a couple weeks without something new from LEN3, who also reports that the Twins "are seriously considering a push for two-time AL MVP Frank Thomas." I approve, and hopefully I'll have a write-up of a new player or two here Monday morning. UPDATE: Castillo is officially a Twin. I will have several thousand words on this deal first thing Monday. In the meantime, join everyone else by tossing in your two cents in the comments section. Today at The Hardball Times: - Do Batters Try to Hit Sacrifice Flies? (by John Walsh) - The Sun is Bright; Will Bud be an Eclipse? (by John Brattain) Pick of the Day (146-124, +$2,145): Cleveland -2.5 (-110) over Seattle Saturday's Pick: Virginia Tech -14 (-110) over Florida State Sunday's Pick: Arizona -3 (-110) over San Francisco     
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Konerko Stays in ChicagoI complained earlier this week that the Twins' complete lack of urgency this offseason was concerning. It is interesting to compare that approach to what the White Sox have done, which is basically make what will undoubtedly be two of the bigger moves of the entire offseason and get them both completed by the end of November.First they added Jim Thome to the lineup as either a replacement for free agent Paul Konerko or a scary compliment to him, and then yesterday they re-signed Konerko. Unless Kenny Williams has something really big up his sleeve, the White Sox appear to be done tinkering. They've re-signed their best hitter and added someone who has the potential to be an even more dominant offensive force. For Twins fans, I think that should be a very scary thought considering how good Chicago's pitching and defense was last season. Manager Ozzie Guillen might have them bunting and running again this year, but the fact is that they'll have a 3-4-5 of Konerko, Thome, and Jermaine Dye, which should cruise past 100 homers without much problem. The Twins hit 134 homers as a team this year, and 40 of them came from free agents Jacque Jones and Matthew LeCroy. I've been critical of Williams' moves in the past, but I think he has done an excellent job this time around. He is showing what a good team can do when it has most of the pieces already in place and the luxury of some money to work with. In the Twins' case, they have most of the pieces already in place and are, as always, bargain shopping. It's a huge difference. The big criticism of re-signing Konerko will surely be that the White Sox gave him too much money ($60 million) over too many years (five). I can't really argue with that and I doubt that Konerko will be worth that much over the life of the deal, but that won't matter one bit in 2006. Neither will giving up two good pitching prospects for Thome, because neither guy was particularly close to making an impact in the majors. The only loss Chicago has sustained thus far that weakens the team for next season is Aaron Rowand, who is a very underrated player and one of the elite defenders in all of baseball. His defense in center field is outstanding and his offense, while inconsistent, can be described as "solid." That's a tough combination to replace -- the Twins basically have it in Torii Hunter -- but the White Sox are in a good position to do so with one of their better prospects, Brian Anderson, ready to step right in. The White Sox's defense will be worse without Rowand, but assuming Anderson can be an average defender the group will still be well above average. After all, they still have the infield entirely intact, with Scott Podsednik and Dye flanking Anderson in the outfield corners. And the offense, which was Chicago's weak spot in 2005, has the potential to be significantly better. In looking over Chicago's numbers this year, it is interesting to note that aside from Konerko hitting .283/.375/.534 with 40 homers, no hitter had a great season. In fact, it could easily be argued that most everyone else who got substantial playing time hit below par compared to the rest of their career. Anderson hit .290/.360/.469 at Triple-A, so he should be able to duplicate the .270/.329/.407 Chicago received from Rowand, and adding Thome at designated hitter figures to be a big improvement. Carl Everett started 107 of Chicago's 162 games at DH, and the position ranked eighth in the AL in OPS at .776. Thome's career OPS is .970, and 2005 was the first season since he was a 21-year-old rookie in 1992 that he didn't top .850 and the first season since 1994 that he didn't top .900. The ante has been upped in the AL Central, which is worrisome because the Twins appeared to be having enough trouble just keeping pace when Thome was in Philadelphia and Konerko was a free agent. This may be odd to say now, a month after the White Sox won the World Series, but it just hit home that for the first time since 2001 I don't expect the Twins to enter the season as division favorites. Today at The Hardball Times: - Ten Things I Didn't Know, Um, A While Ago (by Dave Studeman) - Business of Baseball Report (by Brian Borawski) Pick of the Day (145-124, +$2,045): Nevada +5 (-110) over Kansas
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
More RumorsThis is nothing new, but the Boston Herald is the latest to report that the Twins are in the running for Alfonso Soriano:Texas placed second baseman Alfonso Soriano on the trade market, and the Red Sox are one of many teams, including the Mets and Twins, who are interested.I think Soriano is far too expensive, both in terms of salary and players the Twins would likely have to part with in a trade for him. Part of the problem is that, like Hank Blalock, Soriano has been horrendous away from the extremely hitter-friendly ballpark in Texas during his two seasons spent with the Rangers: AB AVG OBP SLG OPS Another part of the problem is that, regardless of where he plays, Soriano has a career on-base percentage of .320 and got on base just 30.9% of the time this season. And that's ignoring the fact that 10% of his career walks have been intentional. If you take those out of equation, here's what Soriano's yearly on-base percentages and strikeout-to-walk ratios look like: YEAR PA OBP BB SO Soriano doesn't control the strike zone, he doesn't get on base, he hasn't hit away from Texas, and he's a mediocre defensive player. He also made $7.5 million in 2005, will likely make more in 2006 and beyond, and may cost the Twins several quality players in a trade. Oh, and he turns 30 in January. I say let the Mets overpay for him. It took two weeks, but the Minneapolis Star Tribune finally ran another article about the Twins. Here are a few notes of interest, from the Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com, La Velle E. Neal: The Twins are convinced that Michael Cuddyer, who committed 15 errors in 95 games at third base last season, needs to move elsewhere, preferably right field. It's why the Twins have expressed interest in free agents Bill Mueller and Nomar Garciaparra and have looked into other such third basemen as Texas' Hank Blalock and Mike Lowell, who was traded from Florida to Boston last week.Michael Cuddyer has been a massive disappointment and I can certainly see why Terry Ryan would have lost faith in him over the years. With that said, when a player has the ability to play third base, second base or a corner outfield spot, moving him to the outfield should be the last resort. Plus, it's not as if Cuddyer's bat has been a huge asset. He hit .263/.330/.422 last season, which is fine for a second baseman, but well below par for a right fielder. If the Twins don't think Cuddyer can hack it at third base, that's one thing. However, it seems like it is now a toss-up between playing him at second base or in right field, which makes very little sense to me. If you think he can hit well enough to be a quality right fielder and you think he can field well enough to be an option at second base, then he should be playing second base. Here's a little more from LEN3: Stories in New York, Boston and elsewhere suggest other teams have interest in Twins outfielder Torii Hunter. While the Twins have kicked around the idea, they prefer to keep Hunter and add players to help them win the AL Central.It would have been easy for Ryan to deny that the Twins have any interest in trading Hunter, so the fact that he made such a clear non-denial denial says to me that they are actively talking to teams about him. And as I've written here before, that's just fine with me. Between the money it would free up and the players Hunter could command in a deal, the Twins would probably be better off without him. Today at The Hardball Times: - Counting on Comebacks (by Aaron Gleeman) - Passing the Hat: Funding the Nationals' Ballpark (by Maury Brown) Pick of the Day (144-124, +$1,945): Miami -5.5 (-110) over Atlanta
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Sheldon, ZiPS, Shecky, and Wily MoAVG OBP SLG Among the players the Twins currently have under their control, here is the best lineup that can be pieced together: AVG OBP SLG IP ERA Cincinnati Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena said Saturday that he's ready to play full time with the team, or they should trade him to another club.Wily Mo Pena wouldn't be the first Reds outfielder I would go after -- I'd want Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns before him -- but he's an intriguing player. YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG On the other hand, he has 45 homers over his last 699 plate appearances and has a career slugging percentage of .477. He also doesn't turn 24 years old until January, is going to be making very little money for several more seasons, and unlike most of the Twins' better young hitters, swings the bat right-handed. Pena's "Most Similar Batters" list over at Baseball-Reference.com includes Jesse Barfield, Rocky Colavito, Pete Incaviglia, Bobby Bonds, Dave Kingman, Willie Montanez, Billy Conigliaro, Willie Horton, Harmon Killebrew, and Roger Maris. Anyone with such a wide assortment of interesting names as comparables at the age of 23 has the potential to be a very good player. From the age of 24 through the end of their careers, those 10 guys hit .261/.341/.468 with an average of 250 homers. Today at The Hardball Times: - Third Base: The Crossroads, Part Four (by Steve Treder) - What Makes a Game Exciting? (Part 2) (by Dennis Boznango) Pick of the Day (144-123, +$2,055): Dallas +1.5 (-110) over Milwaukee
Monday, November 28, 2005
Thome to ChicagoThere was some pretty big AL Central news since last we spoke, as the White Sox traded Aaron Rowand and a couple pitching prospects to the Phillies for Jim Thome. The move has been met with wildly varying opinions from Twins fans, some of whom aren't particularly worried about Chicago adding a guy who slugged .352 last year and some of whom dread having Thome in the division again.While Thome is certainly not a sure thing at this point, count me among those in the dread category. If Paul Konerko leaves Chicago via free agency, Thome can step right into the vacant cleanup spot in the White Sox's lineup. And if Konerko sticks around (it's rumored that he likes the idea of playing with Thome), Chicago suddenly has one of the best righty/lefty power combos in all of baseball. It is interesting that Chicago GM Kenny Williams would trade Rowand, a key member of a team that just won the World Series, for a 35-year-old coming off a season in which he played just 59 games. The White Sox do have a center fielder playing left field in Scott Podsednik and a center-field prospect waiting in the wings in Brian Anderson, but Rowand's outstanding defense is going to be extremely difficult to replace. Of course, if Thome stays healthy and returns to his dominant ways (he hit .274/.396/.581 with 42 homers in 2004, his fourth straight 40-homer season), the White Sox can afford to lose a little defense. If the Phillies paying a big chunk of Thome's salary allows Chicago to also bring back Konerko, the White Sox have managed the difficult feat of improving the team a month after winning the World Series. That should be a scary thought for Twins fans, especially with the Indians already set up for a nice run while also rumored to be making some noise in the free-agent market and the Twins, so far at least, completely silent. The young offseason has already featured a ton of fireworks, with Thome, Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and B.J. Ryan all changing teams, but as always the Twins appear to be waiting around for the scraps to fall from the table. In fact, the Minneapolis Star Tribune's website has a page devoted solely to Twins-related news, and the headline story is still a November 16 article that proclaims, "Twins show interest in Piazza." I don't want to say something cliched like "the Twins are standing by while Rome burns," because I don't think they need to make wholesale changes to compete in 2006. However, it would be nice if Terry Ryan did something to give a little insight into how he plans to improve the worst offense in the league. In the meantime, a couple Twins notes ... The Sox will intensify their negotiations with Johnny Damon this week, making re-signing him a top priority. Dragging talks out close to Christmas -- as agent Scott Boras did with Jason Varitek last year -- likely won't happen in this case. The Sox may go as high as a four-year, $40 million offer, but don't be surprised if the Sox eventually kick some tires on Minnesota center fielder Torii Hunter. After all, they do have some chips in [Kevin] Youkilis, in whom the Twins had some interest last season, and [Bronson] Arroyo, a bargain end-of-the-rotation starter.I'm not sure why the Twins would be going after Bronson Arroyo given their pitching depth, but if the Red Sox ever offer up Arroyo and Kevin Youkilis for Hunter, I would jump at it. Not only could Youkilis slide right in at third base and Arroyo make cutting Kyle Lohse loose even easier, the deal would free up about $8 million a year that the Twins could use to sign or trade for an impact bat. Today at The Hardball Times: - What Makes a Game Exciting? (Part 1) (by Dennis Boznango) - Is Ryan Worth It? (by David Gassko) Pick of the Day (144-122, +$2,165): Pittsburgh +8 (-110) over Indianapolis
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Ben Revere, CF 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Angel Morales, CF 5. Shooter Hunt, SP 6. Danny Valencia, 3B 7. Anthony Swarzak, SP 8. Tyler Robertson, SP 9. Jeff Manship, SP 10. Jose Mijares, RP 11. Chris Parmelee, RF 12. Kevin Mulvey, SP 13. Carlos Gutierrez, SP 14. David Bromberg, SP 15. Deolis Guerra, SP 16. Michael McCardell, SP 17. Luke Hughes, 3B 18. Robert Delaney, RP 19. Anthony Slama, SP 20. Steven Tolleson, SS 21. Joe Benson, CF 22. Alex Burnett, SP 23. Trevor Plouffe, SS 24. Deibinson Romero, 3B 25. Brian Duensing, SP 26. Rene Tosoni, RF 27. Dustin Martin, CF 28. David Winfree, RF 29. Jason Pridie, CF 30. Philip Humber, SP 31. Jonathan Waltenbury, 1B 32. Tyler Ladendorf, SS 33. Steve Singleton, 2B 34. Oswaldo Sosa, SP 35. Bobby Lanigan, SP 36. Reggie Williams, 2B 37. Daniel Ortiz, RF 38. Danny Rams, C 39. Dan Osterbrock, SP 40. Charles Nolte, RP |