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Friday, December 16, 2005
Tony F'ing BatistaAny optimism I had in regard to the Twins' offseason was ruined yesterday when the team signed Tony Batista to a one-year contract. I have been critical of many Twins trades and signings in the past, but I can't possibly stress just how awful I think signing Batista is. I almost wish I had never disagreed with anything the franchise has ever done before, just so I could save up all of my disapproval for this singular decision.The move is horrendous on a number of levels, not the least of which is that Batista is simply not a good player. He hits home runs, which is almost certainly why the Twins signed him, but he does nothing else to help a team win games. He strikes out a lot, hits into tons of double plays, has one of the worst approaches you'll ever see a professional hitter bring to the plate, and is not a good defensive player. In the coming months you're bound to hear a lot about how Batista hit 32 homers in 2004 and is a "proven RBI man" or "much-needed power threat," but all that does is show that the person doing the talking has absolutely no clue about how a lineup scores runs. And sadly, the fact that Terry Ryan chose to sign Batista and presumably hand him an everyday job in 2006 is a major sign that he doesn't have a great grasp on how to build an effective offense either. Batista will hit 30 homers if given everyday playing time, but he will make so many outs that it won't even matter. While hitting 32 homers in 2004, he posted a ghastly .272 on-base percentage and used up an extraordinary 494 outs in 650 plate appearances. There is a reason he had to find work in Japan in 2005 despite coming off a 32-homer, 110-RBI year, which is that most general managers recognize that no amount of power makes up for a .272 OBP. There is a fairly well-known stat called Runs Created Per Game that attempts to quantify exactly how many runs a hitter produced for every 27 outs he used up. For instance, in hitting .335/.418/.662 with 46 homers in 2005, Derrek Lee led MLB with 10.02 RC/G. Said another way, a lineup full of nine Derrek Lees would have scored around 10 runs per game. Joe Mauer led the Twins in RC/G this season with 5.94. The stat also works remarkably well on a team level. In fact, in evaluating the Twins' offense in 2005 it was perfect. As a team, the Twins combined for 4.24 RC/G. Now guess how many actual runs per game the team scored. That's right, 4.24. What does this have to do with Batista? Well, he spent this year playing in Japan (posting a horrible .294 OBP), but during his last two MLB seasons Batista ranked among the worst hitters in all of baseball when it came to RC/G: 2003 RC/G 2004 RC/G The goal offensively is not to hit homers, but rather to produce runs, and from 2003-2004 Batista was significantly worse at that than the Twins were collectively this year. That's probably hard to fathom if you watched the Twins struggle to score runs this season, but the fact is that the Twins got on base 32.3% of the time in 2005 while Batista got on base just 27.1% of the time from 2003-2004. That's a massive difference, and it's what makes the number of home runs Batista hits nearly meaningless. You'll also notice above that Batista is the only hitter to crack the top five (or, more accurately, the bottom five) in both seasons, and all but three of the worst RC/G belong to shortstops. Not Batista -- he's a third baseman who the Twins might play at designated hitter. Oh, and remember how poorly Cristian Guzman hit during his final season in Minnesota? Well, he was only about 0.02 runs per game worse than Batista that year (and he was far better than Batista in 2003). I actually find myself struggling for words to describe just how pathetic this move is, as if every criticism I've ever leveled against the organization in the past was simply me crying wolf. The fact that Batista will hurt the team in 2006 is almost an afterthought, because the much more damning aspect of signing him is that it exposes the organization as completely unable to recognize what leads to scoring runs. Make no mistake about it, this move is an unqualified disaster. Regardless of what happens between now and Opening Day, this offseason will have been a complete and utter failure if Batista -- perhaps the single worst everyday hitter in baseball during his last two MLB seasons despite all of his home runs and a 32-year-old who got on base at a 29.3% clip in Japan -- receives significant playing time in 2006. Someone please wake me from this nightmare. Today at The Hardball Times: - World Baseball Classic Update (by Craig Burley) - Wally Pipp: Put Me Back In Coach ... Pretty Please? (by John Brattain) - Daily Graphing: Orlando Hernandez (by David Appelman) Pick of the Day (154-130, +$2,285): Golden State -4 (-110) over Toronto Saturday's Pick: Kansas City +3 (-110) over New York Sunday's Pick: Seattle -7 (-110) over Tennessee     
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Twins NotesIf you can get over how depressing that is, it's pretty amazing that the team has won a World Series and made four trips to the postseason over that span. I also found it interesting that scouting director Mike Radcliff is quoted as saying "nobody's really put a finger on" why the Twins haven't had a 30-homer guy, but then Crasnick writes the following just a few paragraphs later: Even the team's approach to teaching hitters in the minors has come under scrutiny. [Tom] Kelly, who led the Twins to two world championships during his tenure, liked his hitters to use the inside-out, opposite-field approach and shorten up with two strikes. That approached filtered down to the instructors in the minor leagues, and it hasn't necessarily been conducive to producing sluggers.The Twins may not want to change their approach, but the finger is firmly in place on a legitimate reason (or multiple reasons) for the lack of power. Crasnick also brings up David Ortiz as an example of how the Twins don't create an ideal situation for someone capable of hitting for big power even at the big-league level and discusses how the team's drafts have been heavy on pitchers and athletic position players. "I think we're not going to accept it," Dan Lozano said. "We've got a couple of multiyear deals on the table and not a one-year deal. Why would we turn those down and accept a one-year deal?"This is the sort of thing that gets glossed over in sports, but I often think about how things would be handled in non-sports situations. Not counting income like signing bonuses and endorsements, Jones has made a little over $13 million playing baseball professionally through the age of 30. From all indications he would have liked to finish his career in Minnesota, but the Twins were not willing to pay him what has been deemed fair-market value for multiple seasons. He may very well get $15 million over three years from a team like the Royals, instead of what probably would have been something like $6 million over one year from the Twins. Of course, barring a career-ending injury he could then have negotiated another contract as a free agent next offseason, which tightens the gap between the two offers. Yet his agent seems to imply that the decision was as simple as weighing the number of years each team is willing to guarantee his salary. Now pretend that instead of playing baseball, Jones has been a long-time employee of, say, Best Buy. He has advanced up the company ladder to make $13 million by the age of 30, likes working there, has called Minnesota home for nearly his entire adult life, and would like to be a lifelong employee if possible. Unfortunately, when he goes to negotiate a raise, the company is unwilling to give him the contract he wants. He shops around a bit and finds another, similar company located somewhere else that is willing to guarantee his salary for multiple years. In that case, would it be such a no-brainer that the long-time Best Buy employee would leave the job he enjoys in the state he calls home to get more financial security when he has already earned over $13 million at his job? I'm not blaming Jones for leaving the Twins, but I think history has shown that veteran players who leave their long-time teams aren't always thrilled with their decision down the road. I wonder if Jones and his agent discussed that part of the situation, rather than just the number of years teams are offering to pay him guaranteed money for. Today at The Hardball Times: - Catching Up On Trades (Part 2) (by Aaron Gleeman) - Pitching Contracts (by Dave Studeman) Pick of the Day (154-129, +$2,395): San Antonio -2.5 (-110) over Minnesota
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Jacque Declines ArbitrationAs expected, Jacque Jones declined the Twins' arbitration offer yesterday.I don't think Terry Ryan was ever particularly interested in Jones returning to the team, but rather wanted the draft pick the Twins will now receive as compensation when he signs with another team. Plus, as a worst-case scenario, Jones agreeing to accept what would essentially have been a one-year deal at a fairly reasonable price didn't represent much of a risk. Jones was always an enigma in my eyes. He was clearly a gifted athlete and a very talented player, yet was never able to put all of his tools to great use. He was extremely inconsistent, possessed one of the least reliable outfield arms in all of baseball despite being a very good defender, displayed horrible plate discipline regardless of the situation, and never figured out a way to hold his own against left-handed pitching. Playing for the Twins and having Ron Gardenhire as his manager likely magnified Jones' already sizable flaws. His combination of outstanding athleticism and a hacktastic approach at the plate is in many ways representative of the Twins' organization as a whole, both good and bad. And Gardenhire's refusal to platoon Jones against southpaws did nothing but expose him as an incomplete player while hurting the team.  Despite racking up at least 500 plate appearances in each of the past six seasons, Jones never once drew as many as even 40 non-intentional walks in a year. Much was made of his improved patience this season, but the fact is that 12 of his career-high 51 walks came intentionally, leaving him with a measly 39 non-intentional walks in 585 plate appearances. In 3,783 career trips to the plate, Jones has struck out 737 times while drawing a total of 206 non-intentional walks. Jones finishes his Twins career as a .227/.277/.339 hitter against left-handed pitching, a subject that is a sore spot with me. It has been painfully obvious for years now that Jones has no business playing every day, yet thanks to Gardenhire's stubborn refusal to face facts and do something as simple as platoon a left-handed hitter, nearly 30% of Jones' at-bats over the past three seasons came against lefties. None of those flaws kept Jones from being a quality player, but they make him relatively easy to let go. Had he been platooned, the team would miss Jones' .294/.341/.488 career line against right-handed pitching and likely struggle to replace him with similar production. However, that was never going to be an option as long as Gardenhire is around, and replacing Jones' mediocre overall production will simply not be very difficult. After back-to-back .300 seasons in 2002 and 2003, Jones' batting average fell off a cliff over the past two years and he hit just .251/.317/.432. For all the criticism Lew Ford and Michael Cuddyer have taken for their sub par 2005 seasons, their offensive production was every bit as good as Jones'. Throw in what is hopefully a healthy Jason Kubel at some point in 2006 and right field is certainly an area for potential improvement at a fraction of what Jones has been (and will be) paid. So long, Jacque. Today at The Hardball Times: - PrOPS: 2005 and Beyond (by J.C. Bradbury) - How Much Can We Learn By Looking At "Stuff"? (by David Gassko) Pick of the Day (153-129, +$2,295): Miami -2 (-110) over Milwaukee
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Slow News DayI said, "No, the ad is for MSNBC." To which she replied, "What is BC?" That is the sort of conversation that movies and television simply don't accurately capture. Tony Cicalello, who played baseball at Cretin-Derham Hall, will become baseball coach at St. Thomas Academy, with former Raiders pitcher Billy Mauer as an assistant.By "interesting note" I mean interesting to me, because I was Little League teammates with Tony Cicalello. In fact, I'd probably rate him as the third-best player I ever played on the same team with, behind current University of Minnesota center fielder Tony Leseman and a guy named Travis Brown, who as far as I can tell has vanished from the face of the earth. Although Cicalello may not remember this (or even having me as a teammate), he and I were double-play partners at one point. He played shortstop when he wasn't pitching and I played second base when I wasn't hitting pop ups to right field. I don't really have a point to this little bit of nostalgia, but it does seem weird to see a guy like Cicalello becoming a high-school coach. I always think of high-school coaches as the gym teacher-types who wore those weird spandex biking shorts, aviator glasses, and a whistle around their neck. Not slick-talking Italian kids who once knocked me out cold with a feed from shortstop when we were practicing double plays and I wasn't paying attention. I guess I'm getting old. I told them I didn't want to do any underwear shots.Give up? I'll give you a hint ... he's the brother of the new assistant coach at St. Thomas Academy. Lohse is 27 years old, made $2.4 million in 2005 while going 9-13 with a 4.18 ERA in 178.2 innings, and is eligible for arbitration. Padilla is 28 years old, made $3.2 million in 2005 while going 9-12 with a 4.71 ERA in 147 innings, and is eligible for arbitration. And here's how their career numbers match up: IP ERA W L K/BB Today at The Hardball Times: - Franchises at Birth: The Royals and the Pilots/Brewers (Part One) (by Steve Treder) - Patience and Position (by Dan Fox) Pick of the Day (153-128, +$2,405): Miami -4 (-110) over Chicago
Monday, December 12, 2005
Romero-for-CasillaWhile trading for Alexi Casilla sounds an awful lot like trading for Luis Castillo, the Twins' second trade of the offseason was completely different than their first. The natural reaction when a trade like this one goes down is to say, "I can't believe this is all we got for [insert name of veteran player]. I don't even know who this [insert name of prospect] guy is."In this case, after weeks of fans speculating about what sort of impact hitter the Twins could acquire by trading away a package that included J.C. Romero, Terry Ryan surprised everyone by sending Romero to the Angels for a minor leaguer. However, while this isn't the sort of deal that provides fans with tons of optimism in the dead of winter, it is a perfectly reasonable move on a number of levels. Romero had little place on this team. His pitching had become less and less reliable of late and he clashed with Ron Gardenhire over his role in the bullpen. The former is a lot more important than the latter and neither thing made Romero useless, of course. Still, when a guy is making $2.2 million on a team where that counts for a big chunk of the payroll things like that begin to matter. The Twins' bullpen is very good and very deep, and their budget is very limited. I was initially under the impression that dealing Romero would essentially require dumping his salary, but after reading the many rumors circulating this offseason I became convinced that he had more value than that. Turns out, his value was somewhere in between. One thing I heard quite a bit over the weekend was surprise about Ryan only being able to get a mid-level prospect for Romero. After all, several people said, look at the huge contracts teams are handing out to relievers this offseason. While that's certainly true, if you look instead at what relievers have been fetching in trades it is a vastly different story. For instance, Damaso Marte, a lefty setup man who is comparable to Romero is many ways, was dealt last week from the White Sox to the Pirates for utility man Rob Mackowiak. Another comparable southpaw middle reliever, Ray King, was dealt from the Cardinals to the Rockies for Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles. If you look at what Marte and King brought back, I don't think the Twins receiving an intriguing 21-year-old middle-infield prospect for Romero, while also clearing his entire salary off the books, is a bad haul. As always with the Twins, the monetary aspect of a move can't be ignored. It's easy to say that the Twins simply dealt Romero for Casilla, but in reality they dealt Romero for Casilla and $2 million. The odds are against Casilla ever turning into an impact player simply because of his inexperience and distance from the majors, but Ryan has certainly plucked similar prospects out of other systems and watched them thrive. As Angels general manager Bill Stoneman told the Los Angeles Times, "The Twins have a very good history of identifying good players at lower levels and acquiring them." Can Casilla join the long list of low-level minor leaguers in other organizations who Ryan correctly identified as having potential? He has as much of a chance as Johan Santana, David Ortiz, Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse, Lew Ford, Cristian Guzman, and Jason Bartlett -- all relatively unknown prospects who Ryan brought in via trades. ALEXI CASILLA | 5'9" | 160 LBS | DOB: 7/20/1984 | BATS: SWITCH If Casilla develops well, he could step in at second base and the top of the order when Castillo's contract is up in two years. If his development stalls a bit, he could turn into a solid utility man. Either way, he's the type of player (a young middle infielder with on-base skills) the Twins haven't had nearly enough of in the organization over the past five years. Romero-for-Casilla is not a fair swap, but the Twins didn't need a $2.2 million LOOGY who was a pain in the ass and if Ryan could have traded Romero for an impact hitter he would have. Instead, the team saves a significant amount of money, gets rid of a headache whose performance was worse than his raw numbers indicate, and picks up a young middle infielder with some potential. Today at The Hardball Times: - Demystifying the MLB Constitution (Part 1) (by Maury Brown) - Are South Florida Fans at Fault? (by Keith Isley) Pick of the Day (152-128, +$2,305): Atlanta -10 (-110) over New Orleans
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