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Friday, January 06, 2006
Twins NotesJ.C. Romero being traded to Los Angeles and Mulholland officially exiting leaves the Twins without an established left-handed pitcher in the bullpen. I don't really think having a lefty reliever is absolutely necessary (the Angels in recent years being a good example), but my guess is that the Twins do. At this point it looks like the job will be between Dennys Reyes and Gabe White, who have both signed minor-league contracts with the Twins that include invites to spring training. Neither player excites me much. Reyes has pretty good raw stuff, but he's 29 years old and has never really been able to consistently throw strikes. He has a career ERA of 4.80 and posted a 5.15 ERA and 35-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio while pitching in pitcher-friendly San Diego this year. Meanwhile, White is a strike-throwing machine, but he is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher who gives up an extraordinary number of homers. I have little doubt that either guy could do a passable job as a true LOOGY, but Ron Gardenhire has shown no indication that he will use someone in that role. Romero faced a ton of right-handed hitters during his time in Minnesota, and while Mulholland surprisingly shut down lefties in 2005, he faced enough righties for it to cancel out. Not messing around with relievers who face only one batter at a time is generally a positive thing for a manager, but the problem is that if Reyes and White are used in the same way they will struggle. I like how Gardenhire runs a bullpen, but the team's apparent commitment to carrying a lefty at all costs goes against his style. A smart manager will take a good righty over a mediocre lefty just about every time, and the Twins have the correct assortment of right-handed arms in their system to make that work. Rather than mess around with guys like Reyes or White, who might be decent in defined roles but probably won't even be used that way, I'd rather they filled the back of the bullpen with guys like Willie Eyre or Boof Bonser. Restovich has hit .254/.333/.408 in 127 career games, including .281/.336/.467 against left-handed pitching. The amusing thing about him signing with Chicago is that he could hypothetically end up platooning with Jacque Jones, which is the role I kept hoping for him to take over while with the Twins. Of course, that would assume that Dusty Baker believes any more in platooning than Gardenhire did, which is pretty doubtful. Nothing will happen as far as Corey Koskie coming back to the Twins until spring training, according to a person who knows what is going on. At that time, if Toronto hasn't dealt Koskie, look for Twins owner Carl Pohlad to go out of his way to get Koskie back here if Toronto will pick up a good share of that big contract.Of course, as anyone who has read the Minneapolis Star Tribune for any length of time knows all too well, Hartman saying something makes it no more likely to come true than, say, the lottery numbers that can be found within a fortune cookie leading to millions. UPDATE: Koskie has been traded to the Brewers. I'll have more on this Monday. Probably. Today at The Hardball Times: - Daily Graphing: Ryan Franklin (by David Appelman) - Being A Hopeless Fanboy (by John Brattain) Pick of the Day (161-143, +$1,555): Houston +2 (-110) over Toronto Saturday's Pick: Washington +2.5 (-110) over Tampa Bay Sunday's Pick: Cincinnati +3 (-110) over Pittsburgh     
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Koskie's Return?It's been amusing watching the ongoing rumors surrounding Corey Koskie's potential return to the Twins. The story changes seemingly every day, and the two major newspapers here can't seem to agree on what's happening. One day someone in one paper writes that the Twins and Blue Jays are in serious talks to bring Koskie back to Minnesota, and the next day someone in the other paper writes that the Twins aren't even interested in Koskie coming back.Thankfully, Joe Christensen had a thorough, seemingly fact-based report on the rumors in yesterday's Minneapolis Star Tribune: The Toronto Blue Jays have offered to trade third baseman Corey Koskie back to the Twins while absorbing a sizeable chunk of his remaining contract, a major league official familiar with the negotiations said Tuesday. But so far, the Twins have been reluctant to make the trade.There is some other good stuff in the article, including a hint that Terry Ryan may have promised Tony Batista some sort of a playing-time guarantee, but at some point I've got to stop quoting an article and simply tell you to go read it for yourself. As for Koskie coming back to Minnesota? I'd be all for it if the price was right. Koskie is extraordinarily injury prone and will probably cease being a quality player very suddenly, but even in a dismal first year with the Blue Jays he managed to hit .265/.365/.437 against right-handed pitching. That's very solid production at third base and significantly better than Batista can ever hope to do. Koskie can only be counted on for about 100 games a year at this point and needs to be platooned against left-handed pitching. However, if used correctly he can still be a key contributor to a contender both offensively and defensively. Replacing Batista with him at this stage in the game -- when the Twins' lineup appears all but set heading into 2006 -- would be a major upgrade. The question is whether or not the Twins can expand their payroll to take on Koskie even at a reduced rate or if that would mean having to trade away Kyle Lohse to make room. Much is made of the Twins' inability to sign big-name free agents, but the worst part about being a small-market team is the struggle that comes along with something as minor as adding enough payroll to re-acquire a player like Koskie who was lost in the first place over relatively little money. The only problem I've had with the Twins' offseason has been the signing of Batista and the indication that he is in the team's plans as the everyday third baseman for 2006. If Ryan is able to pick up Koskie from Toronto for a mid-level prospect while having the Blue Jays eat a large portion of his contract, I would become extremely happy with how the winter has gone. Not only is Koskie a massive upgrade over Batista (assuming he is anything close to healthy), he would give the Twins another on-base threat while providing a little better balance to the lineup with his left-handed bat. Here's how things might look if Koskie returns: LF Shannon Stewart R The Twins were in a very difficult spot with Koskie last offseason. Their concerns about his durability proved correct and in that sense they were right for letting him go. However, their attempts to replace him at third base (first with Cuddyer and now with Batista) have been anything but successful. Now they have a chance to get Koskie back without nearly as much risk, and in doing so can add the final piece to an offense that would be significantly improved. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it'll happen. Christensen followed up his previous report today, writing that the trade talks for Koskie have been "officially pronounced dead." He also quotes Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi as saying, "I don't see a deal happening with Minnesota." Of course, knowing the way this rumor has changed so drastically on a daily basis, Koskie could be back in a Twins uniform by tomorrow. Today at The Hardball Times: - Pictures of Batted Balls (by Dave Studeman) - Business of Baseball Report (by Brian Borawski) Pick of the Day (161-142, +$1,665): Michigan State +7 (-110) over Illinois
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Did You Know?I've had it sitting on my bedroom floor for a while now, but I finally got around to cracking open The Bill James Handbook 2006 a couple days ago. As always, the book contains a whole slew of interesting tidbits, including the following stuff I stumbled across about the Twins.Santana ranked second in ERA (2.87), innings (231.2), strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.29), and shutouts (2), and also ranked among the top 10 in wins (16), winning percentage (.696), batters faced (910), complete games (3), and pitches per start (101.1). And those are just the run-of-the-mill stats. Among more obscure categories, he led the league in on-base percentage against leadoff men (.237) and opponent's BPS on changeups (.345), and ranked third with a .200 batting average against right-handed hitters and a .581 opponent's BPS on fastballs. All this and a whole lot more in The Bill James Handbook 2006. Today at The Hardball Times: - Sacrificing in 2005 Redux (by Dan Fox) - Daily Graphing: C.C. Sabathia (by David Appelman) Pick of the Day (160-142, +$1,565): Texas +7.5 (-110) over USC
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
The First Entry of 2006Many of the bloggers I read regularly have written up special entries for the new year. Some of them have a bunch of lists devoted to the year's best things and others have long pieces recapping the last 12 months of their life. I don't really have any brilliant ideas for that type of thing, but rather than spend another day linking to random stuff that amuses me or debating the latest additions to the Twins' roster, I figured today would be a good time to say something about 2005.Unlike the first three years of this blog's existence -- when the Twins took home the division title and advanced to the postseason each time -- 2005 was not a great year for the team that this blog revolves around. The Twins entered the season with high expectations and were considered by most to be the favorites for a fourth straight division title. Instead, they pitched very well, finished dead last in the league in runs scored, and won just 83 games to finish third in the AL Central. To make matters marginally worse, the rival White Sox started out 16-4, ended up 99-63 to take the division by 16 games, and then won their first World Series title since 1917. All things considered there have been plenty of worse times to be a Twins fan -- everything from 1993 to 2000, for example -- but with the expectations involved it has to at the very least be considered one of the most disappointing seasons in quite a while. Fortunately, 2005 was a much better year for the person who this blog revolves around. I finished up with college, saw the visitor totals for AG.com miraculously continue to rise, received several great writing opportunities that allow me to actually do this stuff for a living, and watched as my baby, The Hardball Times, got its second book published and widely distributed. And while this doesn't quite fit under the heading of 2005, I turned 23 years old today. In the year between 22 and 23 I have taken some major strides toward full-fledged adulthood. I'm still living at home, but for the first year in my life I woke up early each morning because of a job and made enough money to start complaining about taxes. In fact, despite not being done with school until May I'm proud to say that I probably made more money in 2005 than most of the people who were in the University of Minnesota's School of Journalism with me will make in any of the next five years. I don't mean that to sound like bragging, because if you saw my bank account you'd know it's far from something to brag about. Rather, I am simply proud that after failing miserably in numerous attempts to enter the world of newspaper journalism while at the University of Minnesota, I've found a non-traditional way to make a living doing what I love. I don't know how long it'll last or where it'll take me, but that's part of the fun and it beats the hell out of the inverted pyramid. AG.com generates some income through various ads, but the only reason this blog is entering its fifth year is that I still love doing it. The blog has certainly evolved quite a bit over time as I've been stretched thinner and thinner with other writing gigs. I used to write thousands upon thousands of words here each day about everything I could possibly think of, whereas now this blog is mostly home to slightly less lengthy thoughts on the Twins and non-sports topics. For the most part I've been able to maintain my goal of writing something new here each weekday regardless of what other stuff I'm working on, but my involvement at The Hardball Times has become far less than what I would like it to be. I think New Year's resolutions are silly, but I do hope to find a better balance between writing for fun and writing for pay in 2006. I'm not sure how to do that and I've found it very difficult to spread my writing between multiple places each day, but that's the goal. I want to thank the readers of this blog for your continued support. Without the people who have read this blog since its launch on August 1, 2002 I wouldn't have any of those other opportunities, and for that I will always be thankful. Thousands of people stop by here each day, which remains astonishing to me, and the conversations that occur in the comments section on a regular basis please me a great deal. I hope you'll all stay with me in 2006 and beyond, and I hope you'll continue to support my writing wherever it may be. Today at The Hardball Times: - .361 in '61 (by Steve Treder) - Daily Graphing: Wily Mo Pena (by David Appelman) - Ramirez and Tejada (by David Gassko) Pick of the Day (160-141, +$1,675): Penn State -10 (-110) over Florida State
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |