AaronGleeman.com
Friday, February 16, 2007

Link-O-Rama

  • The Minneapolis Star Tribune named a new editor this week, promoting deputy managing editor Nancy Barnes to the position after former editor Anders Gyllenhaal left for the Miami Herald. It remains to be seen how much influence Barnes will have on the newspaper's content, but so far at least she's on the right track, with one of her first stated goals being to "develop new ways to reach readers through the Star Tribune's website."

    Along those lines, someone at the Star Tribune tipped me off to the fact that the newspaper will soon have both of its baseball reporters blogging. The Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com, LaVelle E. Neal III, has a blog called "Twins Insider" that appears to still be in the developmental stages, while Joe Christensen's "Around the Majors" blog looks to be up and running (or at least walking briskly). Even knowing LEN3 just a little bit, I'm confident that his blog will be a must-read if he lets loose at all.

    The Star Tribune is the only newspaper I read on a daily basis and I've developed relationships with a number of its employees over the past few years, so I'd like to see it do well. I'm hopeful that Barnes agrees with me that newspapers will be better off long term the less they continue to rely on the actual paper version of their product and the more they begin to think of themselves as one of many websites competing for an online audience that doesn't need their content delivered to them.

    I often go months without reading the physical version of a newspaper, but include several newspaper websites in my weekly reading rotation, alongside dozens of sites without print versions. There are still tons of people who read what gets delivered to their doorstep each morning, but there's little doubt that the numbers are skewing more toward my usage patterns with each passing day. A large portion of the newspaper industry has taken to fighting that change, whereas the smart move is to adapt with it.


  • Meanwhile in the significantly less popular newspaper on the other side of town, columnist Charley Walters is attempting to pass off stuff like this as secret-worthy information:
    Because of shrewd investing, Twins catcher Joe Mauer, 23, was financially set for life even before signing a four-year, $33 million contract this week.
    Like much of Walters' columns, that sounds noteworthy until you think about it. Between a $5.15 million bonus in 2001, over $1 million in big-league salaries, and various endorsement deals, it's likely that Mauer earned in excess of $7 million "even before signing a four-year, $33 million contract." Walters may actually think that being "financially set for life" with $7 million before the age of 24 takes "shrewd investing," but I'd suggest that it'd only be noteworthy if Mauer was unable to do that.


  • On a semi-related note, Star Tribune blogger Michael Rand--yes, another one--pointed out how much more interesting things would have been if Mauer had dated 2006 Miss USA Tara Conner, rather than 2005 Miss USA Chelsea Cooley. There's still time, of course. He is, after all, very shrewd.


  • Controversial as it may be, I've decided to keep the Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com title vacant until someone special emerges from the rest of the pack as the clear choice, even if it means another three months with the throne empty. Keeley Hazell and Jenna Fischer remain the leading candidates, although a viable third-party choice has emerged in the (ridiculously nice) form of Marisa Miller. Rumor has it that she's a really big Rolling Stones fan and loves listening to her iPod.

    Despite that, her overall taste in music seems somewhat flawed. For one thing, she replied "I don't know a lot about him" when asked about Gnarls Barkley. "Him" is actually two guys who essentially look like complete opposites, which is a fact that Miller would know if she wasn't busy posing instead with the human hat-rack known as Kenny Chesney. Of course, needless to say I'm willing to overlook all of that, or at least look at these 47 pictures of Miller in Sports Illustrated instead.

    As a wise man once said: "Suddenly, a new contender has emerged."


  • In addition to the aforementioned tremendous photo galleries from their annual swimsuit issue, SI.com also posted an excellent interview with Baseball-Reference.com creator Sean Forman. I've had the pleasure of hanging out with Forman on several occasions--even going out for sushi with his family in Seattle last year--so I can safely say that he's an even better person than he is a website designer, which is really saying something.

    Baseball-Reference.com is without question the most essential baseball site in existence and I use it constantly. Not only can you find almost any piece of information within seconds because of how well Forman presents the immense content, it's incredibly easy to get lost for hours in the never-ending pages of interesting "stuff." If I was somehow stuck on a desert island with access to just one website, B-R.com might be my pick (assuming MapQuest wasn't going to get the job done, obviously).


  • In most weeks either of these videos would run away with Video of the Week honors, but they'll have to settle for a first-place tie this time: The Berenguer Boogie and Joe Rogan vs. Carlos Mencia. Actually, the truth is that as good as the Rogan-Mencia video is, it can't possibly compete with The Berenguer Boogie when it comes to inexplicable ridiculousness. What kind of life am I leading where something like that gets made in the 1980s and doesn't flash in front of my eyes until 2007?


  • I know absolutely nothing about playing guitar, but as a big fan of both John Mayer and Derek Trucks' wife, Susan Tedeschi, I enjoyed reading Rolling Stone's article on "The New Guitar Gods." The accompanying video is worth watching too. Of course, none of it will keep a certain segment of the population from writing Mayer off as nothing more than the "Your Body is a Wonderland" guy, although he apparently put the song's theme to good use while in Minnesota this week.


  • Nationals bloggers, I know all too well how you feel. My only advice is that if you close your eyes and pray--which, incidentally, is how Tony Batista approaches at-bats--it'll all be over soon enough. My favorite part of the whole thing--aside from Batista simply being some other team's problem this year--is MLB.com's Bill Ladson reporting that "Batista can also play shortstop and second base" in addition to third base. That's actually selling Batista short, because technically he could pitch too.


  • Most fantasy baseball sites seem to be overwhelmingly populated by twenty-something "experts" like Yours Truly, but long-time fantasy veteran Lenny Melnick also has a blog and accompanying podcast that's worth checking out.


  • One nice side effect of my ongoing Top 40 Minnesota Twins series is that after I profile someone from the 1960s or 1970s--for instance, Zoilo Versalles or Camilo Pascual--my baseball-loving uncle calls me to excitedly discuss the player in question. The discussions often veer off into random parts of Twins history, with my uncle providing the memories and me providing the facts and stats. Last week, our talk someone got into Walt Bond's one season in Minnesota.

    After discussing the tragic end to Bond's career and life--the basic story of which I wasn't aware--my uncle said, "You really should do some research on Bond and write it up on your blog." I put it on my ever-expanding to-do list, with a target date right around the time the Twins' new ballpark figures to open. Thankfully--and in what is an incredibly odd coincidence--Steve Treder of The Hardball Times wrote an excellent piece on Bond this week that's many times better than I ever could have done.


  • Sure, the Star Tribune has joined the mainstream-going-blogging frenzy, but the ongoing bloggers-going-mainstream movement also claimed another victim in True Hoop's Henry Abbott. Welcome to the club, Henry.



  • Thursday, February 15, 2007

    Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #19 Dave Goltz

    DAVID ALLAN GOLTZ | SP | 1972-1979 | CAREER STATS

    G GS IP W L ERA ERA+ WARP WS
    247 215 1638.0 96 79 3.48 112 39.2 104
    Born in Pelican Rapids and raised in Rothsay, Dave Goltz was a fifth-round pick in 1967 who became the first native Minnesotan drafted by the Twins to reach the big leagues with them. After going 38-18 with a 2.69 ERA in 460 minor-league innings, Goltz made his major-league debut on July 18, 1972, tossing 3.2 scoreless innings in relief of Ray Corbin against the Yankees. He soon moved into the starting rotation and posted a 2.67 ERA in 91 innings as a 23-year-old rookie.

    Goltz began his second season pitching out of the bullpen before sliding back into the rotation late in the year, finishing with a disappointing 5.25 ERA in 106.1 combined innings. The poor sophomore performance earned Goltz a trip back to the minors in 1974, but he was quickly called back up after going 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in four starts at Triple-A. Goltz joined the rotation full time at that point, going 10-10 with a 3.25 ERA in 174.1 innings

    In his fourth season, Goltz established himself as a durable innings eater, tossing 243 innings while going 14-14 with a 3.67 ERA. He turned in a nearly identical year in 1976, going 14-14 with a 3.36 ERA in 249.1 innings to become the only pitcher in baseball history to win double-digit games with an exactly .500 record in three straight seasons (10-10 in 1974, 14-14 in 1975, 14-14 in 1976). More statistical oddity than anything else, the streak nonetheless snapped in a big way the next season.

    Known for being a slow starter, Goltz had a 4-16 career record in March and April, compared to 109-91 in all other months. That trend was never more evident than in 1977, when he went 0-2 in five April starts before going 20-9 with a 3.30 ERA for the remainder of the year. Goltz was remarkably consistent once he got on track, winning four games in each of the first four months and three games in September, before grabbing his 20th win with a complete-game victory over the Brewers on October 2.

    Goltz completed 19 of his 39 starts in 1977, including a one-hitter against the Red Sox on August 23, logging 303 innings to rank second in the league behind only Jim Palmer's 319. Goltz tied Palmer and Dennis Leonard for the league lead with 20 wins, but finished just sixth in the Cy Young balloting thanks to his eighth-ranked ERA (3.36) and modest strikeout total (186). A 6-foot-4 right-hander armed with a heavy sinker-slider combination, Goltz relied more on inducing ground balls than missing bats.

    He managed just 887 strikeouts in 1,638 innings with the Twins, which was essentially a league-average rate, but Goltz did a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground and in the ballpark. In fact, when compared to the league-average rates, no pitcher in Twins history allowed homers less often than Goltz, who served up a total of 119, or one every 14 innings. For comparison, Camilo Pascual--a similar pitcher in terms of overall effectiveness--coughed up 123 homers in nearly 400 fewer innings.

    When Goltz tossed 303 innings in 1977--a total that has been topped just twice in Twins history--29 different pitchers served up more long balls. Goltz was even batter at suppressing homers in 1978, giving up one every 18 innings, but got off to another slow start and then fractured his ribs during an on-field scuffle with the Angels in an April 22 game that he didn't even appear in. Goltz started just once in May, but returned in early June and went 14-7 with a 2.27 ERA in 24 starts to finish the year.

    With free agency looming following the 1979 season, Goltz got the Opening Day nod for the third straight year. He beat the A's, throwing the first 8.1 of what would 250.2 innings that ranked seventh in the league. However, he allowed a league-high 282 hits on the way to a 14-13 record and 4.16 ERA, and then left the Twins by agreeing to free-agent deal with the Dodgers that was worth a then-massive $3 million over six seasons.

    Goltz uncharacteristically got off to a good start in Los Angeles, hurling back-to-back shutouts against the rival Giants in April of 1980, but then fell apart. He finished 7-11 with a 4.31 ERA overall, went 2-7 with a 4.09 ERA while being yanked from the rotation in 1981, and was released a month into the 1982 season. Goltz signed on with the Angels and pitched relatively well as a long reliever, but shut things down for good because of a torn rotator cuff after beginning the next season 0-6 with a 6.22 ERA.

    Goltz's lack of strikeouts meant he wasn't flashy, he put together just one season that was truly Cy Young-caliber, and the Twins were within five games of .500 either way in all but one of his eight years in Minnesota. All of that is why Goltz is seemingly an overlooked part of team history and why you'd win an awful lot of bar bets asking fans to name the Twins pitcher who ranks sixth all time in wins, innings, and starts behind the "Big Five" of Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Brad Radke, and Frank Viola.
    TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:

    Comp. Games 80 3rd
    Shutouts 11 5th
    Wins 96 6th
    Innings 1,638 6th
    Starts 215 6th
    Winning % .549 7th
    Strikeouts 887 8th
    ERA 3.48 10th



    Tuesday, February 13, 2007

    Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #20 Camilo Pascual

    CAMILO ALBERTO PASCUAL | SP | 1961-1966 | CAREER STATS

    G GS IP W L ERA ERA+ WARP WS
    184 179 1284.0 88 57 3.31 111 34.5 87
    Signed by Washington as an 18-year-old out of Havana, Cuba in 1952, Camilo Pascual made his major-league debut two years later. He struggled to throw strikes in his first two seasons, combining to go 6-19 with a 5.23 ERA and 142-to-131 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 248 innings primarily spent as a long reliever. Pascual moved into the Senators' rotation in 1956 and began to rack up strikeouts with his world-class curveball, but went 14-35 with a 5.01 ERA in 365 innings over the next two seasons.

    Pascual's first good season came as a 24-year-old in 1958, when he posted a 3.15 ERA and 146-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 177.1 innings, leading the league in strikeout rate and finishing second in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unfortunately, the Senators were an awful team, finishing dead last in the AL with a 61-93 record, and Pascual went just 8-12. Washington finished dead last again in 1959, but this time Pascual took it upon himself to win when he was on the mound.

    He led the league with six shutouts and 17 complete games on the way to going 17-10 with a 2.64 ERA and 185-to-69 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 238.2 innings. Pascual made his first All-Star team and ranked among the AL's top five in ERA, wins, innings, and strikeouts. He was great again in 1960, making his second All-Star team while posting a 3.03 ERA and boasting the league's top strikeout rate by a wide margin, but injuries limited Pascual to just 151.2 innings.

    Tagged with the nickname "Little Potato" after his older brother, Carlos "Big Potato" Pascual, Camilo came to Minnesota along with the rest of the Senators when the team became the Twins in 1961. He shook off prior arm problems to complete 15 of his 33 starts while tossing 252.1 innings with a 3.46 ERA and league-leading 221 strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Twins continued the Senators' tradition of horrible play, and Pascual finished with a 15-16 record despite leading the league with eight shutouts.

    With a young core of 27-and-under players that included Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison, Jim Kaat, Earl Battey, Zoilo Versalles, Rich Rollins, and Jack Kralick, the Twins emerged as a surprise force in 1962, finishing second to the Yankees with a 91-71 record. Pascual was 28 years old by then, making him an elderstatesman among the team's big contributors, but led the charge by going 20-11 with a 3.32 ERA in 257.2 innings while leading the league in strikeouts, complete games, and shutouts.

    As great as that performance was, Pascual was even better in 1963, going 21-9 with a 2.46 ERA in 248.1 innings while again leading the league in strikeouts and complete games. Thanks in large part to Pascual's second straight 20-win season--along with an MLB-best 225 homers from a lineup that had Killebrew, Allison, Battey, and Jimmie Hall each going deep 25-plus times--the Twins won 91 games for the second year in a row, this time finishing third in the AL.

    Both Pascual and the Twins declined in 1964, as the 30-year-old right-hander went 15-12 with a 3.30 ERA in 267.1 innings for a 79-83 team. The Twins came back stronger than ever in 1965, going 102-60 to capture the AL pennant, but Pascual wasn't as fortunate. After going 8-2 with a 3.06 ERA in a great first half, injuries limited Pascual to nine relatively ineffective second-half starts and he lost his matchup with Claude Osteen in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing three runs in five innings.

    A decade of buckling hitters' knees with his sweeping curveball had taken a toll on Pascual's right shoulder. He made 17 first-half starts in 1966, but posted a 5.07 ERA and then managed just 16 innings after the All-Star break. That offseason the Twins traded Pascual and once-promising second baseman Bernie Allen to the new Senators for 35-year-old reliever Ron Kline, who pitched just one season in Minnesota.

    Pascual was no longer a durable, top-of-the-rotation workhorse capable of racking up strikeouts, but he still had a little gas left in the tank for his return to Washington. He went 25-22 in 58 starts over the next two seasons, before getting off to a brutal start in 1969. Washington sent him to Cincinnati, where he gave up seven runs in seven innings before being released. Pascual bounced around after that, with a couple briefs stints as a reliever in Los Angeles and Cleveland.

    His career fittingly ended with a strikeout, as Pascual got strike three past Earl Kirkpatrick in a scoreless ninth inning on May 5, 1971. That strikeout was No. 2,167 of Pascual's 18-year career, which saw him lead the league three times and finish second twice. Pascual possessed a good fastball, particularly in his prime, but it was his curveball that accounted for most of those strikeouts. Tony Kubek, who struck out more against Pascual than any other pitcher, recalled facing his curve:
    He'd come straight over the top with it and it would just dive off the table. The spin was so tight, you couldn't identify the pitch until it was too late. It didn't flutter, it didn't hang, it just kept biting. When Pascual was right, nobody had a chance. That curve was unhittable.
    Of course, when the curveball hung, it also accounted for lots of homers. To paraphrase Cool of the Evening author Jim Thielman, Pascual was Bert Blyleven before there was a Bert Blyleven. He ranks 82nd all time with 256 homers allowed, a huge total for someone who pitched most of his career in the pitcher-friendly 1960s. Mickey Mantle once said Pascual and teammate Pedro Ramos "would laugh and rag each other about which gave up the longest home runs to me." Mantle went on:
    I hit two home runs into the tree beyond center field in old Griffith Stadium off Pascual, and Ramos is up waving a towel at Pascual while I'm rounding the bases. Later that year I hit one off the facade in Yankee Stadium off Ramos, and as I'm rounding third I see Pascual waving the towel at Ramos.
    Although Pascual is often wrongly credited with being on the mound for it, Ramos served up what's generally considered one of the longest homers in baseball history against Mantle in 1956, the aforementioned shot that nearly exited Yankee Stadium. Mantle also hit plenty of long bombs off Pascual, who he took deep 11 times in total, but viewed those homers differently: "I hit those off Camilo Pascual, one hell of a pitcher."

    Pascual's career numbers are a mixed bag, with a 174-170 record and 3.63 ERA that was just slightly better than average in a pitcher-friendly era. However, he took some beatings by debuting before he was likely ready, spent his first seven seasons pitching for a horrible Washington team, and wound down his career away from Minnesota. In other words, Pascual's Twins-only performance--which is what these rankings are all about--is far more impressive.

    Pascual arrived in Minnesota by putting together one of the greatest four-year runs in team history, winning 15, 20, 21, and 15 games while leading the league in strikeouts in the first three years and finishing second in the fourth year. In six seasons with the Twins he made three All-Star teams, won 20 games twice, posted a 3.31 ERA in 1,284 innings, and went 88-57 for a .607 winning percentage that ranked as the best in team history until Johan Santana came around. One hell of a pitcher, indeed.
    TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:

    Winning % .607 2nd
    Shutouts 18 3rd
    Comp. Games 72 4th
    Wins 88 7th
    ERA 3.31 7th
    Innings 1,284 7th
    Strikeouts 994 7th
    Starts 179 8th



    Monday, February 12, 2007

    Mauer Through 2010

    We're sadly still destined for two straight years of hearing and reading about how Johan Santana may leave Minnesota at some point, but for a while at least we've been spared from similarly premature talk about Joe Mauer's possible departure. Mauer and the Twins have agreed to a four-year contract that will keep him in Minnesota through 2010. The deal, which covers his three arbitration-eligible seasons and buys out his first year of free agency, is worth $33 million.

    Mauer's deal isn't technically a four-year extension, because it only buys out one season that the Twins didn't already control. However, delaying Mauer's free agency for even one year is obviously very important and the contract provides the Twins with cost certainty should the market continue to rise like it did this winter. Mauer's agent, Ron Shapiro, told reporters Sunday that "there's not a player who belongs with the Twins more than Joe Mauer," while Terry Ryan gave the team's point of view:
    We are pleased to have an agreement with one of Minnesota's brightest young stars. Joe has become one of the game's great young players on and off the field. He has a bright future with this organization and means a great deal to the people of Minnesota.

    This is a good day for this organization, and I feel like it's one of those deals which is going to work for both sides. You have to be comfortable with how a player's going to respond to security. I don't think there's any question how Joe's going to respond to that. That's one of the good things about this situation. He is in awful good shape and showed it last year.
    Under the terms of the deal, Mauer will receive $3.75 million in 2007, $6.25 million in 2008, $10.5 million in 2009, and $12.5 million in 2010. He had asked for (and probably would have received) $4.5 million in arbitration for 2007, and that total would likely have climbed to about $7 million in 2008 and around $10 million in 2009. That adds up to a total of $22 million, which means the Twins essentially bought his first year of free agency for something like $11 million.

    There's little doubt that a healthy Mauer would go for a lot more than that on the open market in 2010, which makes it an excellent deal for the Twins. On the other hand, given his past knee problems and the physical demands of catching, there's some doubt that a healthy Mauer would have hit the open market in 2010, which is why taking $33 million in guaranteed money is always a smart move for a 24-year-old who enjoys playing for his current team.

    As Ryan said, it's a deal that should work well for both sides, with the added bonus that breathless speculation about Mauer leaving as a free agent won't start up until at least mid-2009. Plus, locking Mauer up through 2010 is important, if only symbolically, because at some point you've got to think people will stop messing up the plan to have a new ballpark in place by then. If that ever happens and construction actually begins, Mauer will be the first player officially under contract for the new ballpark.
    Joe Mauer | Catcher | DOB: 4/83 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2001-1



    YEAR AG LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
    2001 18 RK 110 .400 .492 .491 0 8 19 10
    2002 19 A- 411 .302 .393 .392 4 28 61 42
    2003 20 A+ 233 .335 .395 .412 1 15 24 24
    AA 276 .341 .400 .453 4 22 25 25
    2004 21 MLB 107 .308 .369 .570 6 15 11 14
    2005 22 MLB 489 .294 .372 .411 9 37 61 64
    2006 23 MLB 521 .347 .429 .507 13 53 79 54

    MINOR LEAGUE TOTAL 1055 .332 .407 .426 9 76 132 107
    MAJOR LEAGUE TOTAL 1117 .321 .399 .471 28 105 151 132