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Friday, May 04, 2007
Link-O-RamaLefthander Francisco Liriano strolled into the Twins clubhouse after coming up from Fort Myers, Fla., where he is rehabbing from Tommy John elbow surgery. He will travel with the team from Tampa to Minnesota for the next homestand, just to be closer to the action for a while.There's a long way to go, of course, but he's getting there. Luis Castillo returned to the Twins lineup after missing 10 games with a strained left quadriceps muscle. To say the team missed him is an understatement.Think of how horrible their record is going to be next season after he leaves as a free agent! I had tears in my eyes when I was doing the lineup. I can even hit in this lineup.If you're curious, Guillen was a career .264/.287/.338 hitter in 7,133 plate appearances, while the White Sox are hitting a combined .221/.309/.377 this year. Incidentally, Ron Gardenhire hit .232/.277/.296 in 777 plate appearances and the Twins are batting .279/.339/.405. Elijah Dukes, Akinori Iwamura and Delmon Young combined to score 43 April runs, more than any rookie trio in the past 50 years, according to research by the Rays. Minnesota's Gary Gaetti (now the Rays' Triple-A hitting coach), Kent Hrbek and Randy Johnson scored 40 in 1982.No, not that Randy Johnson. This one. Only time will tell if I'm right, but I'll go on record as saying that I think Jarrett will be the second-best wide receiver from the draft behind only Johnson. With that said, I don't think taking Sidney Rice in the second round was a bad pick by itself, so I'll be very curious to see how Rice and Jarrett ultimately compare. Most post-draft analysis seems to assume that the Browns are the big winners simply because every writer in the country is familiar with Brady Quinn, but the Vikings did as well as anyone. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Prospect Round Up: AprilDuring the offseason, I put together a series of entries laying out my rankings of the Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007. After recapping the first month of the Twins' season yesterday in this space, I thought today would be a good time to travel through the minor-league system and check in on how some of the team's best prospects fared in April ... After suffering through with a neck injury that required a cortisone shot during spring training, No. 1 prospect Matt Garza was demoted to Triple-A in favor of Sidney Ponson and struggled with his command while getting off to a slow start in the brutal Rochester weather. He finished the month with back-to-back strong outings, ending April with a 2.84 ERA, 18-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .263 opponent's batting average in 19 innings spread over four starts. No. 3 prospect Glen Perkins began the season alongside Garza in Rochester's starting rotation, tossing six innings of one-run ball in his first outing, but was quickly summoned to the Twins' bullpen when they went to a 12-man pitching staff. In six total appearances as a reliever spread over nearly three weeks on the roster, Perkins posted a 4.32 ERA, 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .241 opponent's batting average in 8.1 innings. Despite the presence of Garza, Perkins (for a while, at least), and Scott Baker, No. 4 prospect Kevin Slowey was Rochester's best starter in April and pitched about as well as humanly possible. In his first taste of Triple-A, Slowey had a 1.05 ERA, 28-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .152 opponent's batting average in 25.2 innings spread over four starts. After a two-strikeout start to begin the season, Slowey racked up nine, nine, and eight strikeouts in his final three April outings. No. 6 prospect Alexi Casilla began the year as Rochester's starting second baseman, but played just two games there before the Twins called him up when injuries struck. Casilla spent time at shortstop and second base, showing good range defensively while going 4-for-4 stealing bases, but looked overmatched at the plate while hitting .233/.250/.256 with an 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45 plate appearances. The 22-year-old was sent back down when Jeff Cirillo returned from the disabled list. Down at low Single-A Beloit, No. 2 prospect Chris Parmelee was also overmatched at the plate, hitting just .215/.282/.400 with 27 strikeouts in 65 at-bats. Parmelee's power has been decent, with two homers and seven total extra-base hits, and the strikeouts aren't necessarily overly troubling by themselves. However, a 27-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio is definite cause for concern when it comes to a first-round pick getting his first taste of full-season ball. No. 5 prospect Anthony Swarzak got off to a horrible start at Double-A, with an 11.12 ERA and .360 opponent's batting average through two outings, and then his season got even worse when he was slapped with a 50-game suspension for violating the minor-league drug policy by using what has been described to me as a "non-steroid substance." Swarzak will return in July, but his chances of moving quickly through the high minors have likely vanished. Meanwhile, No. 7 prospect Pat Neshek's April was just slightly better. The sidearming blogger picked up right where he left off last season, posting a 2.25 ERA, 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .146 opponent's batting average in 12 innings as one half of the Twins' setup duo along with Juan Rincon. Neshek's month also included a lengthy interview on ESPN.com and he's on the verge of officially no longer being a "prospect" by crossing the 50-inning mark for his career. The pitching staff at high Single-A Fort Myers includes No. 8 prospect Eduardo Morlan, No. 9 prospect Oswaldo Sosa, and No. 10 prospect Alexander Smit. Unfortunately, only Morlan put together a strong April and he did so pitching out of the bullpen. Acting as Fort Myers' closer, Morlan posted a 0.84 ERA, 9-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .108 opponent's batting average in 10.2 innings, saving three games in seven appearances. Sosa posted a solid 22-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.1 innings and continued his heavy ground-ball tendencies by serving up just one homer, but allowed opponents to bat .341 against him while compiling a 5.59 ERA in five starts. Smit managed a similarly impressive 20 strikeouts in 23.1 innings, but walked 11 batters and allowed opponents to hit .269 with two homers on the way to a 5.40 ERA in five starts. Perhaps even more so than Slowey's fantastic start at Triple-A, No. 12 prospect Jeff Manship's first month at low Single-A sticks out as the organization's best April performance. Manship posted a 0.84 ERA, 36-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .147 opponent's batting average in 32 innings spread over five starts. Equally as impressive, he had a 4.6-to-1 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, which sticks out like a sore thumb in the Twins' fly-ball heavy system and is a tremendous indicator for future success. The Twins' second-round pick last June, No. 11 prospect Joe Benson hit just .175/.254/.206 with 20 strikeouts in 63 at-bats at Beloit. That's an incredibly discouraging first month regardless of how you spin it, but it's worth noting that Benson is a 19-year-old seeing his first full-season action. That he's on the same team and in the same league as a relatively polished, 22-year-old former college star like Manship is revealing for both players. Benson deserves patience and Manship deserves a promotion. No. 13 prospect David Winfree got off to a good start at Double-A, hitting .333/.382/.533 through eight games, but is currently sidelined with a shoulder injury. No. 15 prospect Erik Lis continued to knock around too-young competition, hitting .310/.402/.488 with two homers, 11 total extra-base hits, and a 12-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 games at high Single-A. Like Manship, he deserves a promotion and the chance to play against challenging competition. No. 18 prospect Alex Romero and No. 37 prospect J.D. Durbin are no longer in the organization. Romero was claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks when the Twins decided to keep Chris Heintz instead. With no minor-league options left, Durbin had to be placed on waivers when he was cut at the end of camp. He was claimed and waived by the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Phillies within the span of three weeks, before finally passing through waivers and reporting to Philadelphia's Triple-A team. No. 19 prospect Matt Moses continued to do absolutely nothing to justify the "third baseman of the future" label that's been stuck to him since being a first-round pick in 2003, hitting .203/.213/.339 with a horrendous 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 games at Triple-A. Similarly, supposed "center fielder of the future" and No. 29 prospect Denard Span hit just .243/.300/.338 with a 16-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 games alongside Moses in Rochester. After missing all of last season following shoulder surgery, No. 21 prospect Jay Rainville posted a 2.63 ERA, 15-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .265 opponent's batting average in 24 innings at high Single-A (which is where he was prior to the injury). No. 23 prospect Trent Oeltjen, who might be next in line for a call-up should more injuries strike the Twins, hit .318/.375/.409 with an 8-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 games at Triple-A. No. 24 prospect Yohan Pino continued to pitch extremely well despite underwhelming velocity, posting a 2.25 ERA, 15-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .217 opponent's batting average in 12 innings working primarily out of the bullpen at high Single-A. Also at Fort Myers, No. 25 prospect Kyle Waldrop showed signs of regaining his bat-missing ability by posting a 3.08 ERA, 25-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .227 opponent's batting average in 26.1 innings spread over five starts. Pitching alongside Manship at Beloit as a teenager, No. 30 prospect Alex Burnett started four games with a 3.68 ERA, 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .228 opponent's batting average in 22 innings. Showing his first signs of life since being a first-round pick in 2004, No. 31 prospect Trevor Plouffe hit .323/.391/.565 with three homers, nine total extra-base hits, and a 10-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 games as the starting shortstop at Double-A. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Month In Review: AprilIn what is probably just an odd scheduling quirk, the Twins finished April with a trip to Detroit both this season and last season. On last year's trip, the Tigers outscored them 33-1 in an embarrassing three-game sweep that dropped the Twins to fourth place and put them eight games behind the division-leading White Sox at 9-15. With 9-0, 18-1, and 6-0 losses, it was a horrible way to end a tough month. In reviewing it on May 1, 2006, here's what I wrote: The offense was predictably ineffective and the pitching was shockingly horrible, and the team often looked both overmatched and disinterested. The defense was sloppy, the starting pitchers put the team in an early hole nearly every time out, and the manager continued his annual tradition of giving at-bats to the wrong guys.Now it's May 1, 2007 and things sure have changed in a year, and not just because a rash of injuries has made it tough to complain about Ron Gardenhire "giving at-bats to the wrong guys." Rather than getting swept by the Tigers, the Twins nearly pulled off a sweep of their own heading into May, losing Sunday's game when Brandon Inge hit a walk-off homer off Jesse Crain. Even with the month-ending loss, they finished April in second place at 14-11. The offense that "produced 22 percent fewer runs than the AL average" last April was just two percent below average this April. The pitching staff that gave up "23 percent more runs than the rest of the league" last April was 11 percent better than average this year. Between a ton of injuries, several winnable games that slipped away, some sloppy defense, and even sloppier baserunning it certainly wasn't a pretty first month despite a very easy schedule, but it sure beats last season's version. The team as a whole hit .271/.330/.401 in April, which in typical Twins fashion ranked third in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging percentage. Last year's team ended the season ranked first, fifth, and eighth in those same categories. Offense is down about six percent across the league this year, which is why similar rankings produce less impressive raw numbers, but in general the Twins are hitting much like they did last season (and far better than they did last April). Joe Mauer hit .369/.465/.512 with 12 RBIs and 18 runs in 103 plate appearances while picking up right where he left off last season by leading the league in batting average. Torii Hunter hit .326/.352/.651 with 18 RBIs and 16 runs in 91 plate appearances while leading the league in doubles with 13. Mauer and Hunter were the team's clear offensive leaders in April and were each among the most valuable handful of players in the league during the first month. Justin Morneau hit .271/.358/.521 with 15 RBIs and 17 runs in 109 plate appearances, which is nearly identical production to what he did on the way to winning last season's AL MVP once you account for the league-wide drop in offense. Similarly, Michael Cuddyer hit .290/.333/.450 with 17 RBIs and 17 runs in 108 plate appearances to nearly duplicate his performance from last season's breakout campaign. Unfortunately, after Mauer, Hunter, Morneau, and Cuddyer the offense wasn't pretty. The lineup's 3-6 hitters combined to hit .311/.373/.531 in April, but if you remove them from the equation the rest of the hitters combined to bat .241/.292/.306. No other hitter slugged above .400 and only Jason Tyner produced an above-average on-base percentage. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that in 494 at-bats spread between 11 hitters, a grand total of one homer was hit by someone other than The Big Four. That's right, one homer all month (and Luis Rodriguez hit it). Part of that comes from injuries forcing Rodriguez, Josh Rabe, and Alexi Casilla into the lineup and keeping Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo out of the lineup, but Luis Castillo, Nick Punto, Jason Kubel, and Jason Bartlett were all awful at the plate as well. On the other hand, the Twins hit .290/.366/.422 against right-handed pitching, compared to just .248/.285/.377 against left-handed pitching, which is an area having White and Cirillo healthy would have helped. The pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per nine innings this April, compared to 4.2 runs per nine innings overall last season. At first glance that would indicate that the Twins' pitching has been almost exactly as effective as it was last season, but because of the aforementioned drop in league-wide offense the staff has actually been slightly worse. Interestingly, the ERA gap between the rotation and bullpen has tightened this year, which is the opposite of what I would have guessed coming out of spring training. Johan Santana went just 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA, but that actually qualifies as the second-best April of his career. He combined with Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz to go 8-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 16 starts, while Boof Bonser and Sidney Ponson combined to go 1-4 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts. The rotation as a whole turned in 12 Quality Starts in 25 games, with Ortiz shockingly going 5-for-5 and Ponson not so shockingly going 0-for-4. The bullpen was similarly divided into great performances and poor performances. Joe Nathan got off to a slow start, but finished the month with a 2.19 ERA and 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12.1 innings while converting all seven of his save chances. Setup duo Juan Rincon and Pat Neshek combined to go 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 24-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21.2 innings, while middle man Matt Guerrier posted a 2.40 ERA in 15 frames. At the other end of the spectrum, Dennys Reyes gave up more earned runs (6) in 7.2 April innings than he did all of last season (5). He combined with Crain to post a 6.62 ERA and 12-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.2 innings, with Crain losing two games when Gardenhire refused to bring in Nathan instead. The bullpen combined to allow seven homers in 75 innings (one per 10.7 innings), while the rotation served up 24 homers in 151 innings (one per 6.2 innings). After converting 68.4, 70.2, and 68.5 percent of balls in play into outs over the previous three seasons, the Twins turned 69.7 percent of balls in play into outs this April to rank seventh in the league. They committed the fewest errors in the AL with just 11, which is amazing given that Bartlett had five of his own within the first two weeks. After ranking fourth in the league by throwing out 36 percent of would-be basestealers in 2006, Mauer and Redmond gunned down a league-best 59 percent in April. The Twins finished April 23-for-26 (88.5 percent) stealing bases, with Casilla (4-for-4) and Hunter (4-for-5) leading the way. Mauer (3-for-3), Bartlett (3-for-3), Tyner (3-for-4), Castillo (2-for-2), Punto (2-for-3), Cuddyer (1-for-1), and Kubel (1-for-1) each stole at least one base and no one was thrown out more than once. On the other hand--and while I don't have any specific stats to quote--the Twins made a disturbing number of baserunning mistakes, running their way out of several innings. Finally, here's how the Twins' record this April compares to past seasons: YEAR W L WIN%For whatever it's worth, the Twins missed the playoffs the year they posted their best April winning percentage among those dozen seasons (.750 in 2001) and made the playoffs the year they posted their worst April winning percentage among those dozen seasons (.375 in 2006). Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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