AaronGleeman.com
Friday, May 25, 2007

Link-O-Rama

  • In April of 2004, I stumbled upon a new blog called "Batgirl" and had the following first impression:
    I came across this website last week. It's sort of hard to describe exactly what type of stuff you can find on the site--although the "less stats, more sass" tagline is very accurate--but I will say that the author is a female and she's a Twins fan, which is a pretty great combination for a blogger, in my opinion. Plus, she's a very witty, entertaining writer. It has quickly become one of my daily stops.
    In the three years since then I've seen literally thousands of baseball blogs come and go, but Batgirl remains "one of my daily stops" and everything I wrote then still applies. Or at least it did, because Batgirl is no more after Anne Ursu decided to hang up her keyboard this week. Along with posting one final installment of her famous Lego reenactments and sharing a picture of her new baby boy in the arms of his mom, Ursu addressed her audience as "my darlings" and bid farewell:
    The time has come to end this wonderful adventure. I had hoped to be able to keep it up with Dash, but I simply do not have time to do this blog well, and there is no point in doing it any other way.

    In the three years since Goober said, "Hey, why don't you start a Twins blog?" I've had so much fun with this, even during the time of greatest suck. It's been wonderful playing with all of you. I will miss this, very much.
    I've been blogging for nearly five years and during that time I can count on two hands the number of blogs that have consistently been well written, interesting, and unique while producing regular content over an extended period of time. Perhaps more than any other blog, Batgirl nailed all five of those qualities. In an ever-growing blogosphere that features an amazing number of quality blogs devoted to the Twins, Batgirl stood out as something that was better and different than just about everything else.


    After reading Ursu's entries, I often found myself saying, "Wow, I wish I could write something like that." There are many bloggers who would be missed if they decided to stop blogging, but few would leave as big a void in retirement as Ursu will. On a selfish level I'm incredibly sad to see her go, but with a wonderful family and successful career as a novelist to focus on, I certainly understand. Her shoes are impossible to fill, but I'm thankful that she wore them for as long as she did.


  • Count Nick Punto among the many Batgirl fans.


  • In last Friday's Link-O-Rama, I noted Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan living up to his "Shecky" nickname by beginning a column with a reference to "cell phones the size of Cornish hens." Amazingly, one of Souhan's columns this week included a reference to Geoff Jenkins having "holes in his swing the size of butterball turkeys." Cornish hens, butterball turkeys ... at the request of a long-time AG.com reader, Souhan shall now be referred to as "local poultry fetishist Shecky Souhan."


  • Bill Simmons of ESPN.com had a good take on whether or not the Timberwolves "deserved" to get lucky in this week's draft lottery:
    Nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune less than Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale, the NBA's version of Bush/Rumsfield for 8-10 years. Of course, nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune more than KG, one of the few superstars with too much pride to ever bail on a sinking ship. ... But wouldn't it be nice to see KG play the David Robinson to Oden's Tim Duncan for the next 5-6 years?
    As usual, the Timberwolves failed to move up in the lottery and will pick seventh overall, with both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant set to join teams in their division.


  • Vote or die!


  • Along with my call-in segments, NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" show has recently started featuring interviews with well-known bloggers. Monday's show featured Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog talking about Oliver Perez, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, and Endy Chavez. Cerrone wrote on his blog afterward that "the best part ... was getting to speak with Aaron Gleeman," but the people in the comments section of his blog seem to think that sitting next to co-host Tiffany Simons was just slightly better.

    On Thursday's show, we talked Brewers with Jeff Sackmann of The Hardball Times and Brew Crew Ball, with questions about J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun (who was called up from Triple-A hours after we finished taping). Shockingly, after Sackmann posted a note on his blog about appearing on the show, the comments section there was also filled with Tiffany-related talk.

    Both Cerrone and Sackmann did excellent jobs and I'm looking forward to having more bloggers on the show in the future. As usual, I also taped a solo "Gleeman Report" video for NBCSports.com this week. The latest edition focuses on the impact interleague play has in fantasy leagues, with some interesting stuff about the difference in strength between the AL and NL. Plus, if you've ever wanted to watch me on video wearing a "More Cowbell" t-shirt, this is your big chance.


  • As fate would have it, moments after reading this story I saw these photos. Unfortunately, similar situations played out much differently, no doubt because Jessica Alba is a marginally better actress than Barbie Cummings (so I've heard).


  • Speaking of Alba, Derek Jacques offers an intriguing analogy linking her to Jason Giambi.


  • It took four months, but I can now proudly say that I have over 100 pretend friends.


  • With my Rotoworld colleague Nate Stephens on vacation this week after getting married, I stepped in for him and wrote the weekly "Prospect Report." I managed to include write-ups on a handful of prospects, but mostly took the opportunity to discuss the heated battle for No. 1 bachelor status at Rotoworld, with some talk of the wild world of fantasy groupies and doing laundry thrown in.


  • Not only did mixed martial arts make the cover of Sports Illustrated, L. Jon Wertheim's entire well-written article is available online.


  • My theory on this situation? He dumped her, but then saw her wearing this outfit and immediately reconsidered.


  • While reading this story, I couldn't help but think that I'd happily let someone break my wrist for a whole lot less than $450,000. Seriously, who's with me?


  • My new neighborhood is nice and quiet, but it has a serious lack of prostitution.


  • It will never make up for losing The Sopranos, but HBO's new show, Flight of the Conchords, looks relatively promising.


  • This is not to be confused with Stick and Ball Guy's far superior "Music Clip of the Day," but this week's AG.com approved music video is Susan Tedeschi doing a live cover version of John Prine's "Angel From Montgomery":


    I've become a huge fan of Tedeschi (which I've mentioned here a few times) after initially being turned on to her work by none other than Peter Gammons. And on that note, have a good holiday weekend.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Thursday, May 24, 2007

    Twins Notes: Injuries, Theories, and Skipping

  • When the Braves released Craig Wilson last week, I immediately thought that he'd be a decent low-cost pickup for the Twins. Apparently Wilson's agent had the same idea, because Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports the following:
    The agent for Craig Wilson contacted [Terry] Ryan after Wilson was released by Atlanta, but the Twins don't appear to have interest in signing the righthanded hitter. Wilson, 30, is a career .262 hitter, but he batted .172 in 54 at-bats for the Braves this season. He also is limited defensively, and defense is a big reason the Twins have clung to Lew Ford.
    It's true that Wilson is "limited defensively," but his defense has little to do with whether he'd be a good addition. Plus, Lew Ford is every bit as "limited offensively" as Wilson is "limited defensively," and he's started eight of the past 11 games. Ford has almost zero value, while at least Wilson could provide a right-handed bat capable of some offense against left-handed pitching. Plus, with 217 career innings behind the plate, he'd give Ron Gardenhire his beloved third catcher once Joe Mauer returns.

    Setting aside a bad month in Atlanta, here are Wilson's recent numbers against lefties:
    YEAR      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
    2004 128 .259 .375 .537 .912
    2005 69 .283 .449 .415 .864
    2006 147 .278 .347 .496 .843
    Add it all up and Wilson hit .272/.378/.497 in 344 plate appearances against lefties. For comparison, Michael Cuddyer hit .297/.376/.518 against lefties last season. Wilson also did well enough against righties over that three-year span, hitting .255/.337/.458. He's a below-average fielder at first base or an outfield corner, but an .875 OPS against lefties and a .795 OPS against righties would be just fine at designated hitter, where the Twins have given multiple starts to Jason Tyner and Luis Rodriguez.


  • Speaking of Mauer's return, it sounds like he could be back as soon as this weekend. Getting Mauer back in the lineup will provide a huge, much-needed boost, but it's worth noting that Mike Redmond has hit a very Mauer-like .380/.436/.520 in 55 plate appearances with Mauer out.


  • Stuff like this really makes me wish I had some photo-shopping skills.


  • Random stat: Cuddyer drew just six walks in his first 148 plate appearances while hitting primarily fourth in the batting order. He's drawn eight walks in his last 31 plate appearances, with all of them coming as the No. 3 hitter.


  • Gardenhire has predictably decided against skipping Ramon Ortiz's spot in the rotation despite his 11.74 ERA in four starts this month and today's off day. Here's how he explained the need to keep Ortiz on his normal routine:
    He wants the ball. If you were to tell him, "Hey, we're going to skip you," that would be tough. We'd more like to see him go out there and have a good ballgame. That's what this ballclub needs.
    As usual with Gardenhire, that quote seems perfectly reasonable until you actually examine it a little bit. Gardenhire says that it "would be tough" to tell Ortiz that he's being skipped in the rotation, but he had little trouble skipping Scott Baker's turn whenever possible last year. Apparently Gardenhire felt that a 24-year-old Baker was better equipped to handle the tough news and deal with a change in routine than the 34-year-old Ortiz (although Baker's ugly ERA last year suggests otherwise).

    The good news is that Ortiz's leash is seemingly tightening rapidly (or at least as rapidly as a mediocre 34-year-old's leash can tighten with the Twins). Christensen wrote on his blog Wednesday that he thinks "Ortiz will be out of the starting rotation if he continues his May struggles on Saturday against Toronto." If true, that means the small-market Twins, whose low payroll is constantly painted as a huge disadvantage, will have paid about $5 million for 16 combined starts from Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.

    On a related note, the $9 million trio of Ortiz, Ponson, and Carlos Silva have now combined for a 5.45 ERA in 140.1 innings, with the Twins going 9-16 (.360) in their 25 starts. The Twins are 13-8 (.619) when someone other than Ortiz, Ponson, and Silva takes the mound, and the rest of the pitching staff has combined for a 3.45 ERA. But hey, it's not like someone could have possibly spent the entire offseason predicting that this exact scenario would play out.


  • Meanwhile at Rochester, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza continue to shut down Triple-A lineups after losing rotation-mate Baker to the majors. Slowey has video game-like numbers through eight starts, with a 1.76 ERA, 50-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .195 opponent's batting average in 56 innings. Garza got off to a slow start and his overall numbers aren't as spotless, but he still sports a 3.49 ERA, 46-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .255 opponent's batting average in 49 innings.


  • With Dennys Reyes likely to join Jesse Crain and Glen Perkins on the disabled list with shoulder problems, the Twins' bullpen is undergoing a dramatic change save for the still-healthy late-inning threesome of Pat Neshek and Juan Rincon setting up Joe Nathan. Julio DePaula and Carmen Cali have already been called up to replace Crain and Perkins, respectively, and the team will likely make a move today to replace Reyes.

    I gave a scouting report on DePaula here last week, although my optimism about his future didn't help him avoid getting crushed by the Rangers in his second career appearance. I don't think nearly as much of Cali, who signed a minor-league contract with the Twins after being let go by the Cardinals in November. Cali was far from dominant at Triple-A before being called up and nothing has really changed with him since he signed in December, so here's what I wrote about him back then:
    Cali has always had above-average raw stuff, but he was knocked around to the tune of a 9.45 ERA in two stints in the majors with the Cardinals and has struggled at Triple-A for two straight seasons. He pitched well after a demotion to Double-A last year, but prior to that had posted a 5.46 ERA, 64-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .300 opponent's batting average in 85.2 innings at Triple-A between 2005 and 2006.

    The good news is that Cali is still just 27 years old and held left-handed batters to .235/.297/.284 with 27 strikeouts and zero homers even while struggling overall last season, suggesting there could be a decent LOOGY hiding in the ugly numbers. Much like Reyes, Cali's ability to become a dependable major-league pitcher will depend on whether or not pitching coach Rick Anderson can mold him into something he likes.
    In Rick Anderson We Trust, but between Ortiz, Ponson, and Silva this hasn't been his strongest season for miracle working (although at least Kyle Lohse is back to stinking in Cincinnati). If the Twins want to keep two lefties in the bullpen, the top candidates to replace Reyes would seemingly be Ricky Barrett and Jason Miller. For whatever it's worth, while Reyes competed with Darrell May and Gabe White for a bullpen spot in March of 2006, I wrote that "I'd love to see the Twins give Miller a chance."


  • Jason Bartlett is scheduled to undergo an MRI for ongoing neck and shoulder pain that are keeping him out of the lineup and may go a long way toward explaining his defensive struggles this season. If there's a good part about having a utility infielder like Nick Punto as your starting third baseman, it's that he can slide over to shortstop when necessary.


  • I ranked Alex Romero as the Twins' No. 18 prospect this winter before the team waived him in order to make room on the roster for Ortiz. Romero was claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks and is currently hitting .335/.369/.449 in 43 games at Triple-A. Now, those numbers are nothing special in a hitter-friendly environment like Tucson, but given the playing time going to Tyner and Ford it's pretty obvious that the Twins could use a 23-year-old outfielder who can hit a little bit.


  • I've long been frustrated by Gardenhire's tendency to criticize young players through the media while simultaneously putting forth what often seems like an endless series of excuses for poor-playing veterans. For example, Gardenhire has had little problem taking Bartlett or Kubel to task with a bunch of reporters standing in his office, but then turns right around and says stuff like this to "explain" Ford's increased playing time:
    It's not always about him hitting doubles and triples, it's about him having good at-bats, and he's having them. I like the way he's moving defensively, and I like his energy. He can move around the bases pretty good. So we're just going to let him play out there a little bit.
    Like with the Ortiz quote, Ford "having good at-bats" sounds perfectly reasonable until you realize that he's hitting .214/.267/.286 and has a 5-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And the ability to "move around the bases pretty good" sounds like a valuable skill until you realize that there isn't a whole lot of moving around to be done when you're getting on base 27 percent of the time. Can you imagine Gardenhire saying anything close to that about Bartlett or Kubel (or Baker, if he struggles again)? Of course not.

    For years I've thought that Gardenhire treated young players unfairly and irrationally favored mediocre veterans. That may actually be true, but of late I've started to think that perhaps it has less to do with "young" or "old" and more to do with "good" or "bad." Does Gardenhire favor guys like Ford because he's a veteran or because he's simply not a very good player? Does he take young players to task because they're inexperienced or because they might actually turn into good players some day?

    Ford is an interesting test case, because Gardenhire used to rip into him plenty during the brief stretch when he was actually a valuable player. Ford's production has fallen off over the past few years and now Gardenhire is taking up for him. Another piece of evidence for my little pet theory is Garrett Jones, who has a total of one week of major-league experience and yet has Gardenhire saying nice things about him to reporters:
    We let him get his feet wet. But I'd like for him to get a soaking. I really like the instant run production he can put up there when he walks up to the plate.
    Based on Gardenhire's comments, you'd think that Jones was great during his brief stint. In reality, he went 1-for-8 with a single. I have a tough time imagining that same performance leading to similar sentiments from Gardenhire if the player in question was a legitimate prospect rather than a 26-year-old who has a career on-base percentage of .300 and is in his third season at Triple-A. My theory is that what "allows" Gardenhire to say good things about Jones is that he's mediocre.

    If Jones was good, Gardenhire would surely be telling anyone who would listen that he strikes out too much or needs to work on his defense or isn't "having good at-bats." But because Jones has all those weaknesses and isn't good, Gardenhire lets the compliments and words of encouragement fly. I used to think that Gardenhire put guys like Jones in the "young" category with Kubel, Bartlett, and Baker, but it's starting to seem like he views them as "mediocre" with Ford, Silva, Juan Castro, and Tony Batista.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Wednesday, May 23, 2007

    Game #45: The Johan & Justin Show

    One night after they bludgeoned Carlos Silva and Julio DePaula for 14 runs, Johan Santana took the mound in Texas and the Rangers had trouble simply making contact. After serving up a long solo homer to Sammy Sosa leading off the second inning, Santana got swinging strikeouts on the next five batters he faced and never looked back. He finished one short of a career-high with a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings, with Sosa's homer accounting for the lone run.

    Santana picked up at least one strikeout in each of the seven innings he worked, striking out the side in both the second and sixth frames. Amazingly, all 13 of his strikeouts were of the swinging variety, which is what can happen when Santana's second-to-none fastball-changeup combination is truly clicking. It was the 35th time in Santana's career that he's reached double-digit strikeouts, with No. 34 coming last time out against the Indians.

    Unlike that start, when Fausto Carmona tossed a complete-game shutout to slap Santana with a hard-luck loss, the Twins' lineup provided him with some run support. After Sosa put the Rangers up 1-0, Justin Morneau took the lead with a two-run homer in the fourth inning and then added a three-run bomb in the next frame to put the Twins up 5-1. With Santana exiting after setting the Rangers down 1-2-3 in the seventh inning, Torii Hunter tacked on a two-run shot in the eighth inning to make it 7-1.

    Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan combined for five more strikeouts in two innings of relief to lock down the victory, with Santana improving his record to 5-4 despite receiving more than three runs of offensive support for just the third time in 10 starts. Along with lowering his ERA to 3.05, Santana reclaimed the league lead in strikeouts with 80, overtaking Erik Bedard and C.C. Sabathia. Here's how his current numbers compare through the same point in previous seasons:
    YEAR     GS     W     L       IP      ERA     SO     BB     HR     OAVG
    2004 10 2 2 54.2 5.60 48 17 10 .301
    2005 10 5 2 68.1 3.82 83 8 8 .228
    2006 10 4 4 68.1 3.42 75 14 8 .240
    2007 10 5 4 65.0 3.05 80 18 10 .222
    Santana has traditionally been a slow starter, but this year he turned in a fine April and has been even better in May. The result is the best ERA of his career through 10 starts (although a league-wide drop in scoring has helped), but aside from carrying ugly numbers into June during his first full season in the rotation, Santana more or less found his groove by late May in both 2005 and 2006. In fact, it's remarkable how similar Santana's numbers through 10 starts have been in the past three seasons.

    He won 5, 4, and 5 games. Pitched 68.1, 68.1, and 65 innings. Posted ERAs of 3.82, 3.42, and 3.05. Racked up 83, 75, and 80 strikeouts. Served up 8, 8, and 10 homers. And allowed opponents to bat .228, .240, and .222 against him. As was the case at the end of April, not only does Santana have the rest of the league right where he wants them for another Cy Young award, he's on track for the best season of his career. Oh, and the game's other hero is playing pretty well too.

    With a pair of homers Morneau now ranks second among AL hitters with 13 long balls, behind only Alex Rodriguez (who blasted 14 in April alone). Morneau is sporting a .285/.362/.570 line through 45 games, which is actually better than the MVP-winning .321/.375/.559 line he finished last season with once the league-wide drop in scoring is accounted for. Of course, Morneau wasn't hitting nearly that well last May, so here's how his current pace stacks up with last season's performance at this stage:
    YEAR      G      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR     RBI     RUN
    2006 40 165 .243 .303 .473 9 34 19
    2007 45 196 .285 .362 .570 13 32 32
    Morneau actually had more RBIs at this point last season despite not being particularly good, but the rest of his numbers are up significantly this time around. Interestingly, through the Twins' first 45 games back in 2005, Morneau was hitting .319/.364/.588. However, he had played in just 31 of those games thanks to getting beaned in the head by Ron Villone during the season's first series and went on to post a horrific .213/.285/.388 line for the remainder of the schedule.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Monday, May 21, 2007

    Everyone, Meet Scott Baker

    With an ugly 6.37 ERA lingering as the last impression he left with the team and a slew of top-notch pitching prospects coming up through the system behind him, Scott Baker was surely aware when he took the mound in Milwaukee Saturday that it might be the beginning of his last chance to keep himself in the Twins' long-term plans. Called up from Triple-A ahead of Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, Baker confidently stepped into the rotation for Sidney Ponson and turned in an impressive effort.
     IP     H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR     PIT
    8.1 6 2 2 0 4 2 96
    He pounded the strike zone, throwing 74 percent of his offerings for strikes, handing out zero walks, and recording 25 outs on 96 pitches. Baker certainly wasn't dominant, but it was the sort of outing that shows why the Twins turned to him as Ponson's replacement, rather than go with Garza or Slowey. Of course, it was also the sort of outing that shows why trusting young pitchers like Baker was a better idea than messing around with Ponson or Ramon Ortiz in the first place.

    Judging from the comments left here and the e-mails I've received on the subject, it's clear that Baker's performance last season convinced a huge percentage of Twins fans that he'll never be a good major-league pitcher. In fact, I'm not sure that I've ever seen a fan base turn so quickly and strongly on a young player based on one bad half season. I've been relatively steadfast in my support of Baker and, while it was just one game, Saturday's start against the Brewers showed why: Baker can pitch.

    When he's going well, Baker throws strikes, changes speeds, attacks hitters with a diverse arsenal of pitches, and misses a fair number of bats in the process. However, while he was at his best Saturday against a strong lineup, Baker's faults were also on display if you looked hard enough. Both Milwaukee runs came on solo homers, with J.J. Hardy taking Baker deep two batters into the game and Bill Hall homering in the ninth inning.

    Hall's homer caused Ron Gardenhire to pull Baker two outs away from a complete game despite the fact that the Twins were still up three runs with no one on base and Baker was still four pitches short of the century mark. When Gardenhire brought Joe Nathan in to replace Baker, Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven repeatedly told the television audience that it was a save situation. It wasn't. Because Nathan didn't start the inning, the tying run would have to have been on deck for a save to be in play.

    With no one on base when Baker exited up 5-2, that wasn't the case. However, I'm not bringing up Nathan's non-save to criticize Bremer and Blyleven (although it certainly seems like something a pair of baseball announcers should know). Instead, my point is that Gardenhire yanked Baker with no real danger present. The bases were empty, his pitch count was low, and he needed to record two outs without allowing three runs to score.

    Pulling Baker on the verge of a complete game isn't a particularly big deal either way (although it's silly if a "save" was behind it in any way), but it shows that perhaps Gardenhire perceives him as a pitcher who can implode quickly. And in a way, he's right. Baker's 11 ground-ball outs were a career-high and just the second time he's reached double digits, yet he still served up two homers and two doubles, and saw several hard-hit balls find gloves among his seven fly-ball outs.

    As one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers in baseball, Baker is more susceptible than most to a big inning sidetracking an otherwise strong outing. When a ground-ball pitcher is cruising along and leading by three runs, it takes a string of hits to get him in trouble. When a fly-ball pitcher is cruising along and leading by three runs, it takes two baserunners to put a serious game-tying threat in play. None of that takes away from Baker's start, but it's important as he goes forward in the rotation.

    Baker's outing showed why he deserved another chance, but it also showed why he'll likely always be walking a relatively thin line as a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter. After Saturday's start, Baker now sports a 5.02 ERA and 99-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 145 career innings. Those are decent enough numbers through the first 26 starts of a young pitcher's career, but the homers he allows (24 so far over that span) will go a long way toward determining whether he can bring that ERA closer to 4.00.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.