AaronGleeman.com
Friday, June 15, 2007

Link-O-Rama

  • Last week's Link-O-Rama included Elisha Cuthbert "making a very strong run at becoming the first ever two-time Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com" by looking like this, but she gave back all that momentum and then some this week by looking like this. Here's the side-by-side comparison:

    It's like night and day, if "night" was incredibly fetching and "day" looked like Hillary Clinton. Apparently, "she's a two-face."


  • Ty Wigginton has been mentioned quite a bit as a potential addition to the Twins' lineup, but I'd be a lot more interested in Matt Murton. A 25-year-old right-handed hitter with over 800 plate appearances in the majors, Murton was demoted to Triple-A earlier this week because of a slow start and the Cubs' crowded outfield. He won't be arbitration eligible for several more years and has hit .294/.363/.441 in the majors after batting .309/.380/.451 in the minors.


  • Friend of AG.com Richard Matthes put together an excellent, video-aided tribute to one of the greatest men in American history, who he accurately describes as "Jesus, Moses, Abe Lincoln, and Bo Jackson combined."


  • The other day I jokingly suggested that rather than go with a young rotation next year, the Twins will "probably talk Jose Lima or Terry Mulholland out of retirement." Or at least I thought it was a joke. Now I'm starting to get a little scared:
    Minor leaguer Jose Lima, formerly of the Dodgers, Royals, Astros, Tigers, and Mets, is just tearing up the Mexican league. Playing for the Saraperos de Saltillo, he's tied for second in the league in victories, with a 9-3 record thus far, and has a 4.04 ERA. Interestingly he's still a workhorse, as he's leading the league in innings pitched, with 107.

    The amazing thing is, with the likes of Chan-Ho Park signing a minor-league deal with the Astros on Wednesday, it's only a matter of time before Lima gets another shot at the Major League level.
    No word yet on what Mulholland is up to.


  • If you haven't read it yet, make sure to check out G.R. Anderson's outstanding feature about Johan Santana in City Pages. And if you missed it earlier this week, feel free to read my significantly less outstanding feature about Jason Tyner.


  • Tim Marchman of the New York Sun wrote an excellent, even-handed article this week about the double-standard facing online baseball writers, which is a topic I've covered here constantly over the past five years. Here's an excerpt:
    If I call a team explaining that I write for The New York Sun, they'll leave a credential at the gate; if I call explaining that I write for a Web site, they'll ask me a few more questions, and some will tell me to buy a ticket.

    After a century, this setup is starting to show its age. It's predicated on the somewhat archaic notion that newspaper writers are a class apart, deserving of special treatment others don't receive, because they've been vetted by newspaper editors and thus presumably have qualifications and an audience, and can be held accountable for their coverage. If you were designing a system from scratch, I don't think you'd do it this way.
    He goes on to successfully compare Dave Cameron to Jay Mariotti, which automatically qualifies an article as a must-read in my book.


  • Somehow I can't imagine Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven giving play-by-play like this. Speaking of Blyleven, during last night's Twins-Braves game on FSN, we learned that his all-time favorite movie is Waterworld. Seriously. If you think about it, that explains an awful lot.


  • As someone who more or less completely stopped eating fast food about 18 months ago, I was amused by this "ads versus reality" comparison until realizing that I regularly eat microwave dinners and they typically look even less like their picture. Back in 2004, when I was still living in a dorm at the University of Minnesota, I shared the following "truth in advertising lesson for all you fellow college students looking for some decent, cheap, microwavable food":

    As I wrote at the time: "It looked nothing like what was pictured. In fact, it looked like someone ate what was on the box and then threw it up." Of course, I still ate it and reported afterward that "it actually tasted pretty good."


  • If you've ever wanted to read a casual account of someone winning $600,000 by playing no-limit hold 'em and pot-limit Omaha, Brian Townsend's blog is the place for you:
    Just finished a two hour 1K/2K PLO/NLH mix game. It was three handed with David Benyamine and Johnny Chan. I won about 600K. I busted them on same hand when I flopped bottom set and a flush draw and was against a flush draw and wrap of Davids and a wrap of Johnny. With this win I made 2.15 million dollars in four sessions over five days.
    There wouldn't be enough space in the internet for my blog entries if I beat Johnny Chan and David Benyamine out of $600,000 in two hours.


  • As someone hoping to retire sooner rather than later--with "sooner" being 35 or so and "later" being at most 40--this week's Minneapolis Star Tribune article about working longer and delaying retirement was a real buzz kill.


  • I was asked to keep quiet about our conversation when he first told me about it last month, but now that the cat's seemingly halfway out of the bag I can at least say that former Star Tribune publisher Joel Kramer's new project sounds very intriguing.


  • An age-old question that doubles as a blog name.


  • With Seth Stohs making the seven-hour drive to the Twin Cities, there was an impromptu bloggers-only get-together for lunch Tuesday afternoon at Joe Senser's Sports Bar & Grill in Bloomington. I was a little disappointed to learn that Seth doesn't use nearly as many exclamation points in person, but he was exactly the sort of nice, funny, talkative guy I expected to meet after years of reading his blog and conversing via e-mail.

    Howard Sinker, John Bonnes, Nick Nelson, Trevor Born, Corey Ettinger, and Joel Thingvall were also in attendance, along with a couple girlfriends, and Kevin Slowey apparently turned down an invitation. While Tuesday's get-together wasn't "open to the public" because of how hastily it was planned, the consensus seems to be that we'll try to plan a "real" get-together for later this month. The previous get-together in early April was a lot of fun, so I'll make sure to post details here once I know them.


  • With the Braves in town to play the Twins, I've been reading Mac Thomason's Braves Journal quite a bit. His entry recapping last night's come-from-behind Twins win is definitely worth checking out, in part because he concludes with something many people, including Twins fans, have said over the years: "I hate the Metrodome." Coincidentally, Thomason joined Tiffany Simons, Gregg Rosenthal, and Yours Truly on NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" show Monday.

    On Thursday's "Fantasy Fix" show, Bruce Allen of Boston Sports Media Watch joined us to talk Red Sox. Even if you're not interested in the latest on Daisuke Matsuzaka and potential Twins trade target Mike Lowell, Thursday's show is worth watching because you can see me make what I think is a pretty solid joke, only to be completely upstaged when Rosenthal plays the semen card. And yes, you read that correctly. Watch, you'll see.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Thursday, June 14, 2007

    Twins Notes: Fivesomes, Sideshow, Johan, and Milton

  • I have serious doubts about how long Ron Gardenhire will stay with Joe Mauer in the No. 2 spot--he's all too predictably already talked about wanting to get Nick Punto back there eventually--but it's certainly a huge improvement. There are still four largely unproductive spots in the lineup on most days, which keeps the Twins from having an above-average offense, but trotting out this impressive fivesome in succession will do plenty of damage:
                              AVG      OBP      SLG
    1. Luis Castillo .330 .373 .364
    2. Joe Mauer .333 .417 .458
    3. Michael Cuddyer .298 .377 .471
    4. Justin Morneau .273 .347 .547
    5. Torii Hunter .312 .355 .571
    Without actually crunching any numbers, my guess is that's among the very best front fives in baseball. The fivesome went 7-for-20 with five RBIs and five runs scored last night.


  • After tossing a 1-2-3 inning Tuesday night, Pat Neshek now has the following career numbers:
     G     W     L       IP      ERA     SO     BB     HR     OAVG
    62 7 2 68.0 1.72 90 17 8 .150
    Who would guess that a 7-2 record, 1.72 ERA, 90-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .150 opponent's batting average could possibly come from something that looks like this on the mound?

    Remember when Neshek first came up from Triple-A last season and various people made a big deal about his supposed struggles against left-handed hitters? Sideshow Pat has held left-handers to a .176/.260/.353 hitting line during his career, including a ridiculous .100/.217/.175 this season.


  • I'm on record as saying that the constant effort being made by fans and the media to compare Kevin Slowey to Brad Radke makes little sense given Slowey's lack of a world-class changeup, but their numbers through three career starts are intriguingly similar:
                W     L       IP      ERA     SO     BB     HR     OAVG
    Radke 2 1 18.0 4.50 9 4 3 .288
    Slowey 2 0 17.0 3.71 6 2 4 .297
    Radke went 11-14 with a 5.32 ERA as a rookie in 1995, which is the sort of thing that should probably be pointed out once in a while when fans seemingly panic because guys like Matt Garza aren't great immediately. Also worth noting: Scott Baker had a 2.37 ERA, 15-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .209 opponent's batting average through his first three starts back in 2005.


  • Over at his blog, Sports Illustrated's Jacob Luft wrote an entry wondering "What's Wrong With Johan Santana?" Luft brought up the fact that "even no-names ... can stake a better claim to the Cy Young than Santana" at this point in the season and then delved into what he called "a couple of disturbing stats that stand out and may not bode well for Santana's pursuit of a third Cy Young." It's an interesting read and I respect Luft's work quite a bit, but he misses the point on Santana.

    Yes, Santana hasn't been the best pitcher in the league through mid-June. Guess what? He's never been the best pitcher in the league through mid-June. And yes, Santana's current numbers don't compare favorably to his overall numbers at the end of 2004, 2005, and 2006. Guess what? His numbers at this same point in 2004, 2005, and 2006 don't even compare favorably to his overall numbers at the end of those same seasons.

    To Luft's credit, he doesn't get caught up in Santana's 6-6 record, because he's smart enough to know better. Santana's record is due largely to the Twins' inability to provide him with run support, as they've managed three runs or fewer in nine of his 13 outings. Looking solely at Santana's ability to prevent runs, which is all he can control, his performance through 13 starts is nearly identical to where he stood through 13 starts in 2005 and 2006, and far better than his numbers through 13 starts in 2004:
    YEAR     GS       IP      ERA     SO     BB     HR     OAVG
    2004 13 75.2 5.11 71 23 13 .277
    2005 13 92.1 3.31 114 11 10 .209
    2006 13 88.1 3.16 91 16 10 .231
    2007 13 86.0 3.24 96 23 13 .228
    Whatever's "wrong" with Santana right now was also "wrong" with him in 2005 and 2006.


  • Presented without comment, Santana's Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) numbers:
    YEAR     xFIP
    2004 3.28
    2005 3.35
    2006 3.42
    2007 3.49
    Sorry, Jacob.


  • Last week, G.R. Anderson asked me to help him do some research for an article he was working on about Santana for City Pages. He ended up not using most of the information I passed along and failed to give me a proper plug, referring to AG.com as simply "a respected sabermetrics website" rather than actually providing an address that people could go to. Despite (or perhaps because of) that, Anderson penned an excellent piece on Santana that's a must-read. Seriously, it's really good.

    Here's an interesting stat that I stumbled across while doing some of the research that went unused: Since finally handing him a full-time spot in the rotation in mid-2003, the Twins are 91-38 (.705) when Santana starts. In games Santana didn't start over that same span, the Twins are 258-233 (.525). With Santana on the mound, the Twins have been the equivalent of a 110-win team. Without Santana on the mound, the Twins have essentially been an 85-win team.


  • Late last month, with Ramon Ortiz coming off a four-start stretch in which he posted an 11.74 ERA, Gardenhire chose not to skip his turn in the rotation, explaining that telling Ortiz he was being skipped "would be tough." Now, with Baker coming off a four-start stretch in which he posted a 6.45 ERA, Gardenhire has no problem skipping him. Ortiz is a 34-year-old veteran of nine big-league seasons, but apparently a 25-year-old with zero full seasons under his belt can better handle being bumped.


  • Along with Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, and Danny Mota, the Twins acquired Eric Milton from the Yankees for Chuck Knoblauch in 1998. Over the next six seasons, Milton provided the Twins with 987.1 innings of 4.76 ERA pitching for the combined salary of $12.9 million. Then, with Milton coming off a major knee injury and scheduled to make $9 million in 2004, the Twins dumped his salary on the Phillies for Punto, Carlos Silva, and Bobby Korecky.

    Since leaving Minnesota, Milton has thrown 571.1 innings with a 5.45 ERA while making $34.5 million. And now his career is in jeopardy, because Milton will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery Friday. After one season with the Phillies, Milton signed a three-year, $25.5 million contract with the Reds, during which he went 16-27 with a 5.83 ERA. A pending free agent, Milton turns 32 years old in August, hasn't been good since 2001, and will likely miss at least half of next season following surgery.

    There's a chance Milton's career will end with a 5.01 ERA and Reds fans surely won't remember him favorably, but whatever happens going forward, he had a nice run for the Twins.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Wednesday, June 13, 2007

    The Jason Tyner Story

    Named the Big 12 Conference Player of the Year after hitting .385/.418/.442 with 39 steals and 71 runs scored in 64 games during his final season at Texas A&M University, Jason Tyner was selected by the Mets with the 21st overall pick in the 1998 draft. It was considered an odd pick at the time, because with a slight build, mediocre plate discipline, and almost zero power, Tyner certainly didn't fit the profile of a first-round prospect.

    Tyner was pushed very aggressively right away, reporting directly to high Single-A after signing and hitting .303/.361/.343 in 50 games. He jumped up to Double-A in 1999, batting .313/.387/.369 in 129 games, and then hit .321/.380/.349 in 84 games at Triple-A in 2000. Tyner made his major-league debut on June 5, 2000, leading off the game with a single against Mike Mussina. He remained with the Mets for the rest of the month and struggled, going just 6-for-38 (.158) following a two-hit debut.

    On June 28, the Mets traded Tyner and fellow former first-round pick Paul Wilson to the Devil Rays in exchange for Bubba Trammell and Rick White. Given his size, skill set, and college numbers, Tyner's performance during his first three pro seasons was almost exactly what the Mets should have expected. Whether or not that was actually the case, the Mets sent him packing after a rough first three weeks in the majors, almost exactly two years after using a first-round pick on him.

    Tyner finished the season by hitting .241/.281/.265 in 37 games with the Devil Rays and began the next year back at Triple-A. After hitting his usual .312/.371/.338 in 39 games there to begin the 2001 season, the Devil Rays called him back up in late May and Tyner played in 105 of the team's final 122 games. Alternating between center field and left field while primarily leading off for a team that went 62-100 in its fourth year of existence, Tyner batted .280/.311/.326 with 31 steals in 420 plate appearances.

    While far from good, that performance apparently made the Devil Rays view a 24-year-old Tyner as a long-term building block, because they scheduled "Jason Tyner Bobblehead Day" for the next season. Unfortunately, Tyner hit just .214 through the team's first 45 games and was sent back to Triple-A at the end of May, before the bobbleheads could be given away. Tyner returned to Durham and posted his usual .291/.362/.348 hitting line in 88 games, but remained in the minors for the rest of the season.

    After a poor spring, Tyner began the 2003 season back at Durham. He was called back up in mid-May and remained in the majors for about a month, hitting .290/.355/.391 in 78 plate appearances. Those numbers were by far the best of Tyner's career and essentially represented the best-case scenario based on his extensive minor-league track record. Despite that, the Devil Rays demoted him to Triple-A again in early June and then gave him sporadic playing time following a recall in mid-August.

    Now 25 years old and with parts of four big-league seasons under his belt, Tyner had gone from one of the Devil Rays' "stars" to being completely absent from their plans within the span of about 18 months and 250 at-bats. Placed on waivers shortly after the 2003 season, Tyner was claimed by the Rangers, who released him the next spring. He signed a minor-league contract with the Braves for 2004 and reported to Triple-A, but was released in late July after hitting .288/.346/.358 in 64 games.

    Tyner latched on with the Indians about a week later and finished the season strong with their Triple-A team, hitting .345 in 38 games. That performance failed to earn him a September call up to Cleveland and Tyner signed a minor-league deal with the Twins following the season. Tyner spent the 2005 season at Rochester, batting .286/.351/.334 in 133 games. Unlike with the Indians, that earned him a call-up once rosters expanded in September and Tyner hit .321/.367/.375 in 60 plate appearances.

    Satisfied by his experience with the Twins or simply tired of bouncing from one organization to another, Tyner re-signed following the season and reported back to Triple-A in 2006. He hit .329/.379/.405 in 80 games at Rochester, posting the best numbers of his career aside from that 38-game stint at Triple-A Buffalo in 2004. That earned him a trip back to Minnesota in mid-July and this time Tyner worked his way into significant playing time.

    Stepping in as the starting center fielder with Torii Hunter sidelined and then taking over for the injured Shannon Stewart as the starting left fielder once Hunter returned, Tyner batted .312/.345/.353 in 232 plate appearances. Tyner started 58 of the team's final 75 games and saw the second-most playing time of his career behind only that bobblehead-inducing 2001 season with the Devil Rays. Improbably, he also started at designated hitter in two of the three playoff games against the A's.

    Now 30 years old, Tyner headed to spring training in Fort Myers this March as part of the team's plans and left camp with a big-league roster spot for the first time since 2002. Initially slated to serve as the Twins' fourth outfielder, Tyner found himself in the starting lineup by Game 3 and started 24 of the team's first 60 games (including 10 starts at DH). After a strong start, Tyner cooled off considerably and has hit .264/.313/.321 in 116 plate appearances.

    In parts of the three seasons with the Twins, Tyner has hit .300/.339/.347 in 408 plate appearances. Take a look at how that performance compares to what he did with the Devil Rays (and Mets):
    TEAM            PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     BB%      SO%     IsoP
    Tampa Bay 844 .257 .294 .299 4.4 10.5 .042
    Minnesota 408 .300 .339 .347 4.4 7.4 .047
    While in Tampa Bay, Tyner seemingly focused on using his speed once he was on the bases, rather than actually working to get on base at a solid rate. That produced 46 steals in 844 plate appearances, but more importantly he made an out over 70 percent of the time he stepped to the plate. Whether you choose to look at it as "since being let go by the Devil Rays" or "since joining the Twins," Tyner has shifted his concentration from running while on the bases to getting on base to begin with.

    Prior to 2005, Tyner attempted a stolen base for every 4.3 times he reached base. Since then, he's attempted a stolen base for every 11.5 times he reached base. Some of that is due to age slowing him down, but it's also because the Tyner-era Devil Rays simply equated "leadoff man" with "running fast." While not running nearly as much, what Tyner has been able to do with the Twins is actually more valuable for a player with his skill set.

    Tyner's plate discipline and power have essentially remained non-existent in Minnesota, but the one significant change in his game is making far more contact. Prior to 2005, Tyner struck out in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances, but since then he's dropped that to 7.4 percent. That may not seem like much, but it's big for a player whose hits are almost all slapped through holes, blooped in front of outfielders, bunted, or chopped in places where he can beat the throw to first base.

    The idea that making better contact and putting more balls in play leads to more hits is basically true for all hitters, but for someone like Tyner it's even more important than usual. He has yet to hit a homer in 1,252 career plate appearances, which is the longest homerless drought among active players and the third-longest in all of baseball over the past 50 years. Toss in just 33 doubles and nine triples over that span and 87 percent of Tyner's hits have ended with him standing on first base.

    Because of that, it's no coincidence that since 2005 Tyner's batting average has risen 17 percent while his strikeouts have dropped 30 percent. For many hitters, cutting down on strikeouts would also mean cutting down on power, which might actually hurt their batting average and overall production. However, with Tyner the ball isn't going far anyway, so the equation is simple: If he puts more balls in play, he'll be standing safely on first base more often.

    Even with an improved approach at the plate, Tyner's complete lack of secondary skills make him one of the rare hitters who can avoid having significant value even when batting .300. Despite a .271 career batting average (including an even .300 with the Twins), Tyner's OPS is just .624. When compared to the league average, that ranks as the second-worst OPS of any outfielder with at least 1,250 plate appearances in the past 50 years:
                          PLAYER     LEAGUE      DIFF
    Peter Bergeron .612 .786 -.175
    JASON TYNER .624 .765 -.141
    Doug Dascenzo .590 .715 -.125
    David Hulse .644 .763 -.120
    Darren Lewis .645 .764 -.116
    Eric Owens .664 .780 -.116
    Brian Hunter .660 .773 -.113
    Adrian Brown .666 .779 -.113
    Chuck Carr .649 .760 -.112
    Milt Cuyler .631 .739 -.109
    What's amazing is that Tyner's .271 batting average is the highest of anyone on the above list and four of the other nine hitters batted .250 or worse (including Peter Bergeron at .226). In other words, not only is he incredibly unproductive, Tyner is the epitome of an "empty batting average." Tyner hasn't lost much speed yet and possesses just enough range defensively to be passable in center field, which makes him at best a "textbook" fifth outfielder.

    Unfortunately, he's been stretched into a much bigger role since joining the Twins. Hunter's presence in center field, the Twins' lack of offensive depth, and Ron Gardenhire's infatuation with banjo-hitting speedsters have led to Tyner starting regularly at DH and spending most of his outfield time in left field. Not only does that negate whatever limited value he potentially brings to a team, it highlights his considerable weaknesses.

    That Tyner has already started 21 times at a position other than center field says an awful lot about Gardenhire's lineup choices, Terry Ryan's roster construction, and the Twins' offense as a whole. The Mets quickly realized that using a first-round pick on Tyner was a mistake and the Devil Rays quickly realized that treating him like a long-term building block was silly, but somehow the Twins haven't figured out that one of the worst-hitting outfielders of the past half-century shouldn't be starting at DH.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Tuesday, June 12, 2007

    3,000,000

    AG.com passed 3,000,000 total visitors yesterday morning, which means that if I could have somehow found a way to charge each reader 50 cents per visit since the site launched in August of 2002, I could quit blogging and retire already. Instead, I've found a way to charge absolutely nothing and there's no end in sight. Despite that, my thanks goes out to everyone who's stopped by this site over the past five years, whether once or a thousand times.

    I've lucked into a pretty good life for myself, and none of it would have been possible without this blog and the people who read it. I started blogging because launching my writing career through a more traditional path was proving difficult, but I never imagined that this blog could actually create an entirely different path to follow. Back then, when a dozen readers who weren't related to me was a very good day for traffic, I also never imagined thousands of people coming here each day.

    Even now, after nearly five years of doing this on a daily basis, a number like 3,000,000 is truly mind-boggling. The people who read this site motivate me to keep going even when typing up a new entry seems like the last thing in the world that I'd want to do on a given day. I'm not sure how much blogging I have left in me, which is why I won't say something cliche like "here's to another 3,000,000," but I will say that the first 3,000,000 has been a fun ride. Thank you.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Monday, June 11, 2007

    The Answers (Part 2: Baseball Questions)

    Opening the floor up for questions last week led to over 100 being asked in the comments section and another three dozen or so being sent in via e-mail. Responding to all of them would be pretty tough, but I'll tackle as many as possible by breaking up the answers into two entries. Wednesday's installment covered the "random" questions about this blog, my personal life, and basically anything not directly related to the Twins. Below you'll find my responses to baseball-related questions.

    Do you think Jason Tyner should be getting more at-bats?

    I think you spelled "fewer" wrong.

    If you could pick one position that the Twins should try to upgrade before the trading deadline, what would it be?

    Relative to the rest of the league, the Twins' biggest weaknesses offensively have been third base, shortstop, left field, and designated hitter. Left field or DH are the easiest places to upgrade, because defensive considerations are minor and it's usually not overly difficult to find a decent veteran rent-a-bat at midseason. I expect Jason Kubel to perform much better than he has and view him as a long-term building block, but that still leaves one lineup spot wide open for a defensively challenged hitter.

    Like Kubel, I expect Jason Bartlett to improve in the second half and hold down shortstop for several more years. Plus, acquiring a quality shortstop at midseason would be both difficult and incredibly costly. On the other hand, Nick Punto is no one's idea of a long-term third baseman and could be replaced via trade more easily. Beyond that, the Twins have no capable third-base prospects who're close to being MLB-ready.

    Because of all that, I think third base is the place to target an upgrade, as it would provide a huge boost this season while also patching a hole that the Twins have going forward. Of course, finding a DH bat is never a bad idea and is certainly the place to upgrade if Terry Ryan wants to avoid making a significant trade. If Jason Tyner is still making regular starts at DH down the stretch, it means Ryan hasn't done his job very well.

    Everyone says that Jason Kubel has potential, but he continues to underperform. At what point do the Twins consider trading him?

    Kubel has a total of 454 career at-bats in the majors, so "continues to underperform" strikes me as a somewhat unfair label. He's 25 years old and coming back from an incredibly serious knee injury that essentially cost him two seasons in the prime of his development. Giving up on him less than 500 at-bats into his career, when the Twins lack capable bats throughout the system, would be incredibly foolish. Plus, prior to spraining his knee Saturday, Kubel was slugging .469 over the past month.

    What are your feelings on Bert Blyleven belonging in the Hall of Fame?

    I've always been very supportive of Bert Blyleven's candidacy. Not only is he the most deserving of any eligible player not yet in Cooperstown, he's a better candidate than many pitchers who're already Hall of Famers. The fact that he's still on the outside looking in is the biggest example of the long-standing tendency to misguidedly focus on a pitcher's win-loss record while ignoring his ability to simply prevent runs. That cost Johan Santana the Cy Young award in 2005 and has kept Blyleven out of the HOF.

    I've heard rumor after rumor about the Twins dealing a young arm for a young third baseman, but if I'm not mistaken the Twins are still high on Matt Moses. How far away from the majors is Moses and does he project well enough as a player to discourage the Twins from making such a trade?

    Matt Moses and Denard Span have somehow convinced fans and the media that they're big parts of the Twins' future despite not doing much of anything in the minors to suggest that's the case. Moses is hitting .231/.253/.319 with a 41-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple-A after hitting .249/.303/.386 with a 113-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Double-A last season. Toss in mediocre defense at third base and he's about as far from an MLB-ready prospect as you can get.

    In the past you've stated that Mauer should stay at catcher, but have you softened your stance at all in light of his most recent injury?

    Mauer suffered a major knee injury during his rookie season, but in three seasons since then he's been hurt exactly one time and went two entire seasons without suffering a significant injury of any kind. To me, one injury in nearly three years is not something that suggests moving the best catcher in baseball to another position is necessary. Beyond that, whether from Torii Hunter or Patrick Reusse, the recent talk of Mauer lacking toughness is absurd.

    Mark Teixeira is a first baseman who set a Rangers team record by playing in 507 straight games. On Saturday he went on the disabled list with the exact same injury that sidelined Mauer recently, a strained quadriceps muscle. Teixeira landing on the DL obviously had nothing to do with catching and I've yet to see anyone suggest that it's due to lacking toughness. Teixeira landed on the DL because injuries happen. Unless they happen to Mauer more than once every three years, he's just fine.

    What's your current assessment of Torii Hunter's performance? Do you think his defense has improved since last season? Can he maintain his current offensive production?

    Hunter has been fantastic and his defense, while not as good as it once was, is light years ahead of where it was for much of last season. His offense has already begun to come back down to earth after an amazing start, and I'd bet against him setting career-highs in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while walking twice a month. Regardless of that, he's been among the best handful of center fielders in the league and that figures to be true all season.

    Last week Ron Coomer said that Hunter was taking better at-bats because he was being more selective. "He walked three times in the White Sox series," Coomer said. Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't two of those walks intentional? Is Hunter really taking more pitches this year and having better at-bats?

    Ron Coomer bringing up two intentional walks to help support his "analysis" suggesting that Hunter has been more selective at the plate was amusing, among other things. Hunter is on pace to set career-highs in most major offensive categories, so in that sense he's clearly "having better at-bats." However, he's certainly not showing improved patience while doing so. When it comes to selectivity, here's how Hunter's current numbers compare to the rest of his career:
    YEAR     P/PA     BB%     K/BB
    1999 3.51 5.9 2.9
    2000 3.36 4.5 4.3
    2001 3.59 4.9 4.3
    2002 3.57 5.3 3.7
    2003 3.55 6.7 2.5
    2004 3.58 6.3 2.8
    2005 3.47 7.5 2.1
    2006 3.56 7.1 2.5
    2007 3.41 3.4 5.5
    I've removed intentional walks from the equation, because it's beyond silly to factor them into Hunter's plate discipline. Once that's done, Hunter is currently sporting the worst walk rate and the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio of his decade-long career, and 2000 was the only season that Hunter saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than he has so far this year. He's having a tremendous season, but suggesting that it's primarily because of increased patience is the opposite of reality.

    What do you make of the recent reports of Matt Garza's stubbornness at Triple-A?

    Seeing that Matt Garza lashed out at the organization publicly last month was disappointing, although not surprising. He blitzed through the minor-league system last year, beginning the season at Single-A and ending it in the majors. Passed up for a rotation spot coming out of spring training because the Twins went with Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, he was then left at Rochester while Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were called up to replace Ortiz and Ponson.

    Toss in some struggles at Triple-A while the Twins told him to focus on off-speed pitches and it's not difficult to see why Garza is frustrated. Of course, that doesn't make publicly criticizing the organization any smarter. To Garza's credit, he reportedly got over the frustration quickly and has since been a good citizen at Rochester. For the year, he's posted a 3.44 ERA, 66-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .238 opponent's batting average in 68 innings spread over a dozen starts.

    Do you think the Twins should pull the plug on Garza and trade him?

    Between this question and the previous one about Kubel, I'm disappointed that readers of this blog think that "pulling the plug" on young players with less than a full-season's worth of playing time in the majors is even close to a good idea. Garza is 23 years old, he's pitching well at Triple-A after putting together an amazing season between three minor-league levels last year, and he posted a 4.75 ERA in 47.1 innings with the Twins after a rough debut start. Patience, people.

    Who do you believe will be a part of the Twins' rotation in 2008?

    Assuming Francisco Liriano avoids a setback, my guess is that the rotation will be Santana, Liriano, Slowey, Garza, and Boof Bonser. Of course, knowing the Twins they'll probably talk Jose Lima or Terry Mulholland out of retirement to avoid going with such a young group.

    Compare the production of Punto and Bartlett this season to Batista and Castro last season. Is our current duo much better? Why are you so easy on them and so hard on Batista and Castro?

    I just opined that replacing Punto at third base would be the best move the Twins could make right now and last week in the comments section there was a heated argument after several people suggested that I've been far too critical of him, so I'd question the notion that I've been "so easy" on Punto. However, as a duo it's certainly true that I've been less critical of Bartlett and Punto than Juan Castro and Tony Batista despite similarly horrible production at the plate this season.

    In addition to being awful offensively, Castro and Batista were sub par defensively and had zero chance of improving based on long track records of poor play. That three-pronged combination is one that I simply couldn't handle watching on a day-to-day basis. Bartlett and Punto have been awful offensively, but their defense is a huge step up from Castro and Batista, and in Bartlett's case at least I think he has a chance to perform significantly better than he has.

    Given the Twins' huge depth of high-end pitching prospects, their lack of hitting prospects, and the anticipated return of Liriano, should they trade Santana in the next year for hitting help?

    If the Twins believe they have no chance of re-signing Santana, then they'd be smart to explore a trade that could bring them a huge amount of future value for a player who can leave via free agency after next season. If the Twins think they have a chance to re-sign Santana, then they should keep him and do whatever they can to make it happen. In reality it's likely a non-issue, because Ryan has shown that he's not keen on trading pending free agents and Santana has a no-trade clause.

    What's a realistic number for keeping Santana around?

    It depends. If Santana is looking for the maximum long-term contract he can get, then something in excess of Barry Zito's seven-year, $126 million contract with the Giants is likely. If Santana is looking to sign a huge long-term contract while doing what he can to remain in Minnesota, then something along the lines of Zito's deal is possible. It's going to be "a lot of money over a lot of years" no matter what, so it'll come down to where Santana wants to pitch.

    Is Mauer going to bat second when he comes back? Do you think that's a good idea?

    Mauer is indeed batting second since coming off the disabled list. And yes, I think it's a very good idea. So good, in fact, that I've suggested it here several times over the years, including as recently as two weeks ago.

    When Liriano returns, what do you think about the possibility of him being converted into a closer?

    Much like Mauer moving out from behind the plate, I think it's far too early to begin thinking about that.

    I didn't see Matt Tolbert on your preseason Twins prospects list and I don't think I've even heard any mention of him before. Do you know anything about this kid?

    A 16th-round pick in 2004, Matt Tolbert was a four-year starter at the University of Mississippi despite hitting just .288/.368/.394 in 229 games. He debuted at rookie-level Elizabethton, batting .308/.376/.500 in 33 games, but then hit just .266/.326/.365 in 111 games at high Single-A in 2005. He began last year at Double-A, but was demoted to Fort Myers after struggling. Tolbert hit .303/.360/.438 in 40 games there and earned a promotion back to New Britain, where he batted .258/.341/.363 in 72 games overall.

    Tolbert came into this season with a .275/.342/.395 hitting line in 256 pro games, which matched his college numbers almost exactly and made him look like little more than a possible utility player for the Twins. Instead, he's leading the Triple-A International League in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Tolbert has been limited to just 41 games at Rochester because of strained oblique muscle that sidelined him for the final two weeks of May, but he's gone 12-for-26 (.462) since returning.

    For the year, Tolbert is hitting .378/.449/.575 with three homers, 15 total extra-base hits, and an 18-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's so out of line with the rest of his track record that it's difficult not to label it a fluke, but he's not showing signs of slowing down. Beyond that, while his breakout is fueled by an unsustainably high batting average, Tolbert has also shown significantly improved power. However, it's only been 127 at-bats and he's 25 years old, so I remain highly skeptical.

    Any chance that the Twins could be in the hunt for Elijah Dukes?

    Elijah Dukes has a chance to be a very good player, but given his off-field issues he also has about as much chance of playing for the Twins as I do.

    What are your thoughts on the new stadium? Is it worth creating a small stadium with no parking lot, no retractable roof, and no serious home field advantage?

    I'm thrilled that the Twins will have a new ballpark in 2010, but I do think they'll eventually regret some of the design decisions.



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.