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Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Game #69: One-Man GangHey there Delilah - Plain White T's, "Hey there Delilah"See how easy things can be when the lineup actually scores Johan Santana some runs? Handed five runs to work with in the second inning--more offense than the Twins totaled in 10 of his 14 previous starts--Santana needed just 92 pitches to cruise through the Mets' lineup while turning in the fourth complete-game shutout of his brilliant career in a 9-0 victory. Santana's last shutout came in August of 2005, when he tossed a three-hitter in a 1-0 win over the A's. He recorded nine strikeouts that night and also had nine strikeouts when he hurled a four-hit shutout against the Diamondbacks two month earlier. Santana's first career shutout came against the Royals in July of 2004, when he racked up 13 strikeouts in a three-hitter. Last night's shutout was a totally different animal, because Santana's first and only strikeout didn't come until he completely fooled Paul Lo Duca on a perfect two-strike changeup in the ninth inning. His final pitching line was both pretty and strange:IP H R ER BB SO HR PITSantana has never failed to record a strikeout in 157 career starts and his only previous one-strikeout performance came against the Indians on April 6, 2004. Interestingly, that was Santana's very first start since being handed a full-time spot in the rotation that spring. Between his pair of one-strikeout starts, Santana took the mound 114 times and pitched 782 innings, going 61-25 (.709) with a 2.80 ERA while striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings. Over that 114-start stretch, Santana failed to record at least five strikeouts just 15 times and racked up double-digit strikeouts 32 times. So how did he manage a lone strikeout against the Mets? As Santana and Joe Mauer both said after the game, the Mets clearly approached at-bats wanting to swing very early in counts. Santana also seemed to approach them the same way, perhaps in response to the recent talk about pitch counts and Ron Gardenhire pulling him from games before he wants to leave. Either that or Santana decided that conserving pitches and working efficiently also gave him the best chance to win a pre-game bet with Bert Blyleven that allowed Santana to shave the should-be Hall of Famer's head if he tossed a shutout. Santana seemed awfully excited about winning the bet when asked about it afterward, but whatever the reason or motivation his taming of the Mets involved a lot fewer swing-and-misses and a lot more long fly balls finding gloves than we've gotten used to seeing. Lost in what Santana did on the mound is what he did at the plate. With runners on the corners and none out in the second inning, Santana took a big hack at a high fastball, fouling it straight back, and then coaxed a five-pitch walk against Jorge Sosa to load the bases in what turned out to be a five-run inning. With two runners on base and two outs in the third inning, Santana hit a high chopper up the middle and missed out on an infield hit by about a half-step when Jose Reyes made a nice play.After Jason Bartlett flied out to begin the fifth inning, Santana yanked a two-strike breaking ball from Sosa down the right-field line for a stand-up double. He came around to score the Twins' eighth run on Michael Cuddyer's infield single, before grounding out in each of his final two trips to the plate. You know things are going well when the starting pitcher gets five plate appearances, and Santana nearly went 2-for-4 with a walk and a double. After settling for a 1-for-4 night, Santana is now a .250/.276/.286 career hitter and has struck out just four times in 29 plate appearances. Compare those numbers to the .272/.310/.316 career hitting line belonging to Jason Tyner, who FSN play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer breathlessly called "a great acquisition by the Twins" in the middle innings last night despite the fact that Tyner's yet to throw a single complete-game shutout. If Rondell White never gets "healthy" and the Twins fail to acquire a veteran bat before the trading deadline, perhaps they can use Santana at DH down the stretch. Thanks in large part to Gardenhire ridiculously already giving Tyner 11 starts there--in which he's hit .244/.320/.286--the Twins have gotten a combined .249/.328/.346 hitting line from the DH spot. Who needs White or Ty Wigginton or Adam Dunn when you already have the Venezuelan Babe Ruth. Cirillo is hitting .253/.324/.352 overall after a slow start was followed by a stint on the disabled list, and looks capable of approaching the combined .291/.355/.402 hitting line he posted from 2004-2006. Punto is hitting .225/.317/.293 this season after batting .265/.330/.352 from 2004-2006, so the potential offensive upgrade would likely be worth what could be a significant dropoff defensively. However, the danger of taking Punto away from third base is that Gardenhire could use him to bench Bartlett. In fact, he's already hinting at that, telling Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that "Punto's going to play ... he can go to short, he can go everywhere." Meanwhile, after going 2-for-5 Bartlett is now hitting .270 with a .352 on-base percentage since beginning the season in a 1-for-20 slump. He's also 9-for-9 stealing bases and has shown good range defensively. And if you think any of that could possibly keep Gardenhire from handing Punto his starting job, you haven't been paying attention. The Twins, and specifically Hunter, make more outs on the bases by being overly aggressive than I'd like to see, but that was a case of smart aggression. Speed and good baseball instincts lessened the risk of being thrown out considerably and the payoff was big, with Hunter scoring the first run of the game to give Santana an early lead when he otherwise could have been stuck at second base with the bottom half of the lineup coming up. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Game #68: Mets 8, Twins 1![]() YEAR SO% K/BB OAVGRincon's strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and opponent's batting average have all steadily gotten worse on an annual basis, to the point that he's no longer pitching like a quality setup man. Rincon is just 28 years old, but high-workload relievers like him tend not to age particularly well and the above patterns are very discouraging. With Pat Neshek long since passing him as Joe Nathan's primary setup man, Rincon is the obvious choice should the Twins decide to deal a reliever for offensive help. Jim Souhan's column in the Minneapolis Star Tribune carried the headline: "Twins' biggest need is a third baseman who can hit." In a piece that was surprisingly (and pleasantly) short on lame one-liners and forced pop-culture references, Shecky wrote that "the right third baseman would improve the Twins immediately and perhaps dramatically." Normally I'd say something like "great minds think alike," but that seems like a stretch on all fronts. Kubel runs like someone who's suffered a significant knee injury and his bat has been disappointing thus far, but he's been solid defensively. He gets to more balls than his speed suggests he should, flashes a strong arm, and has come up with a handful of diving grabs in key spots. I'm hesitant to say that the diving catches suggest outstanding defense, because that can be incredibly misleading, but it seems relatively clear that Kubel has at the very least avoided being a weakness in left field. In addition to looking capable, Kubel ranks 12th among all MLB left fielders in Zone Rating at .887 (Carl Crawford leads baseball at .960, while Manny Ramirez ranks dead last at .706). Beyond that, through 324.1 innings Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Ultimate Zone Rating all show Kubel as safely above average compared to other left fielders. None of that will matter much unless he eventually starts hitting, of course, but he's slugging .457 since snapping a 0-for-13 slump on May 10. Castillo is a good player having a good year, and he's among the best second basemen in the league. Toss in a .313 batting average and an MLB-record errorless streak, and there's plenty of evidence to use in making an All-Star case without resorting to extreme statements that have no basis in reality. First of all, a player with a .699 OPS who has missed 13 of 68 games is going to have a difficult time being the MVP of any team, let alone a team with the reigning MVP on it. On a team with Justin Morneau, Santana, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Nathan, and Neshek, Coomer expects us to believe that someone with a .313/.356/.343 hitting line is the MVP? The notion that Castillo is "the best leadoff hitter in the league" is equally as implausible. In fact, among the 10 AL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Castillo ranks fifth in on-base percentage, eighth in stolen bases, and ninth in OPS, GPA, and slugging percentage. AVG OBP SLG OPS GPA SBCastillo's numbers pale in comparison to Ichiro Suzuki, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Brian Roberts, and Alex Rios. Plus, he doesn't even stand out compared to Kenny Lofton, David DeJesus, and Johnny Damon. My point here isn't to bash Castillo, because he's having a good season and has been valuable. Rather, my point is that instead of getting me to think about Castillo's good season or how valuable he's been, all Coomer did was get me to think about how silly his "analysis" was. In Coomer's defense, he once made the All-Star team in a season that saw him hit .263/.307/.424 as a first baseman, so it's perfectly understandable if his thoughts on who's deserving of a spot on the team are a little bit out of whack. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Presented Without Comment: The First 30 StartsWith Friday's loss to the Brewers, Scott Baker has now made 30 career major-league starts. Here's how his performance compares to the numbers of a handful of prominent Twins pitchers through their first 30 big-league starts: IP ERA SO9 BB9 HR9 OAVGStart No. 31 is scheduled to come Wednesday against the Mets. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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