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Friday, July 13, 2007
Link-O-RamaI'm not a big numbers guy outside of win-loss, but offensively it would probably be on-base percentage. I'm hitting in the third spot, and the middle of our order is pretty good with Cuddyer, Hunter, and Morneau behind me, so if I get on base one of them will probably drive me in. Baseball is a numbers game, and that might be the most underappreciated one.As a follow-up to that, here's how Mauer describes "a quality at-bat": Seeing a lot of pitches, fighting bad pitches off--basically, just waiting for a pitch you can handle. Whether you're a power guy, or more of a slap hitter guy, if you find a pitch you're comfortable in handling, that's a quality at-bat. If you get on base or drive a ball up the gap, you pretty much know you had a good plate appearance. But it's mostly about making sure you get your pitch.Finally, asked about whether or not he'll remain at catcher long term, here's what Mauer said: I don't know. I love catching, and hope to do it as long as I can, but if switching positions means that I can add years to my career, I'm all for that. I want to stay behind the plate as much as I can, though. I think I can be a great catcher for some time.It's a shame that Torii Hunter can't lend Mauer some of his media-driven outspokenness once in a while, because he's clearly got a lot of good stuff to say. Also from Hartman's column comes a note about Minnesota potentially being sanctioned to hold MMA-style fight cards in the future, with Brock Lesnar possibly headlining a show at some point. Of course, Hartman makes the common mistake of referring to mixed martial arts as "ultimate fighting," which is like referring to basketball as "NBA." He also describes the sport as "a combination of boxing and wrestling," which is like describing basketball as "a combination of bouncing a ball and running." For instance, earlier this week the Seattle Post-Intelligencer referenced a ProspectInsider.com report about Mariners top prospect Adam Jones potentially being called up from Triple-A, except they couldn't be bothered to actually give the website address or name the person who wrote the report. Instead, the newspaper referred to the source as merely "a website" and "the web report," as if doing that would have seemed anything but absurd had the same information come from a newspaper or magazine. Because the information comes from a website, it's somehow not worthy of the same treatment? The information is good enough to reference and discuss, but the source isn't good enough to be properly credited? At this point, with a huge percentage of newspaper audiences coming from online readers and most newspaper websites housing blogs that are written by reporters, what exactly is the point of treating websites like anonymous masses? A guide to giving blogs credit is definitely needed. Bullpen coach Jim Slaton was near rookie reliever Brandon Morrow in Seattle's dugout when the benches cleared during the top of the seventh Sunday. Morrow is a valuable property, and Slaton wanted to make sure that the kid didn't get hurt even as Morrow wanted to get in the middle of the rumble. As it turns out, however, Morrow isn't the most valuable property.Mainstream media members take note: Before referencing the above quote, I named the source and even linked to it. Crazy, I know, but for some reason attributing it to "a newspaper" or "a printed report" would have seemed kind of silly. I was a little bummed out when they didn't put me on the 40-man, but obviously, it worked out for the best. The Rule 5 draft is always a crapshoot--you never know what will happen--but I couldn't be happier here in San Diego.On a marginally related note, the Twins waived Alexander Smit from the 40-man roster yesterday and former assistant general manager Wayne Krivsky quickly claimed him for the Reds. Smit was a mess at high Single-A, posting a 5.86 ERA while walking 26 batters in 50.2 innings, but he's still just 21 years old and ranked as the Twins' No. 10 prospect heading into the season. Losing him for nothing after losing No. 18 prospect Alex Romero for nothing this winter is discouraging. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Compared to Last Season ... (Part 2: Hitters)Last week I devoted a pair of entries to examining how the Twins fared through exactly one half of the schedule, looking at the pitching staff on Tuesday and the lineup on Thursday. The entries focused on the team as a whole, but with the All-Star break leaving us without games to watch I'd like to take this opportunity to delve a little deeper into the performances of individual players. Specifically, comparing how each player's first-half performance this year compares to their season totals from last year. On Monday I covered the pitchers and today I'll tackle the hitters. Rather than focus on stuff like batting averages and RBIs, which often leave a lot to be desired, what you'll see quoted instead are more advanced metrics that attempt to break down a player's performance in a more detailed and complete manner. In other words, rather than simply saying that a hitter is batting .275 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs, these numbers will help show how they got there. Here's a quick list of the metrics I'll be using: GPA - Gross Production Average SO% - Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout BB% - Percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk IsoP - Isolated Power BIP - Batting average on balls in play LD% - Percentage of balls in play that are line drives GB% - Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls If you're interested in learning more about any of those numbers, check out The Hardball Times' stats glossary or Dave Cameron's excellent primer on "evaluating pitching talent" over at U.S.S. Mariner. With that too-long introduction out of the way, let's dive right in ... JUSTIN MORNEAU: .295 AVG, .364 OBP, .581 SLGJustin Morneau's overall production has essentially been identical to his MVP-winning 2006 season, but the way he's gotten there has been quite a bit different. Morneau's line-drive percentage has dropped 30 percent and he's hit the ball on the ground 28 percent more often, which helps explain why his batting average on balls in play has fallen from .344 to .289. It's difficult to overcome that while remaining similarly valuable, but Morneau has done it by striking out less and walking more. Oh, and his fly balls are going further. In 2006, 16.7 percent of Morneau's fly balls went for homers, but this year 23.4 percent of them have traveled over the fence. Not only is that more than double the league-average rate of 11 percent, it puts Morneau third in the league after he ranked 15th last season. He also ranks third among AL hitters in Isolated Power after ranking 14th in 2006. Morneau needed 34 homers and 130 RBIs to win the AL MVP, but he's on pace for 45 homers and 140 RBIs this year. JOE MAUER: .309 AVG, .401 OBP, .456 SLGJoe Mauer was among baseball's most patient hitters last season, but he's worked even deeper into counts this year, seeing a team-high 4.1 pitches per plate appearance. The result is a 16 percent hike in walks, but Mauer has also upped his strikeouts by 37 percent while hitting 18 percent fewer line drives. Putting the ball in play less often and not hitting the ball as hard when you do is a large part of why his batting average has dipped from .347 to .309. With that said, Mauer's .295 GPA ranks third among AL catchers, behind only Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada, and both his line-drive percentage and batting average on balls in play are among the league's top 20. He continues to rank among the league's most extreme ground-ball hitters, which explains why his power hasn't developed further. As a look at the ground-ball percentage leaderboard shows, it's simply difficult to hit for power when half of your balls in play are on the ground. TORII HUNTER: .301 AVG, .342 OBP, .558 SLGTorii Hunter is on pace for career-highs in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, homers, and RBIs, but it's tough to see where the improvement has come from statistically. Never a patient hitter, Hunter has sliced his walk rate in half, drawing a grand total of just 12 non-intentional walks in 351 plate appearances while seeing seven percent fewer pitches per trip to the plate. He's hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives, and his homer-to-fly ball ratio is unchanged. So how has he managed a seven-percent increase in both batting average on balls in play and overall production? Believe it or not, it's because he's stopped popping up. Last year, 15 percent of his balls in play were infield pop ups, which are essentially automatic outs, but this year that rate has dropped to five percent. Along with seven percent fewer strikeouts, that gives Hunter the equivalent of 17 percent "extra" balls in play to work with and many of them have turned into extra-base hits. MICHAEL CUDDYER: .274 AVG, .360 OBP, .433 SLGMichael Cuddyer has followed up his breakout 2006 season by cutting his strikeouts by 18 percent and upping his walks by 27 percent, but the rest of his game has declined. Cuddyer's line-drive rate has dropped 12 percent and he's hitting twice as many infield flies, a combination that's dropped his batting average on balls in play from .338 to .317. More importantly, his Isolated Power has dipped 28 percent, going from 21st in the league to barely above average. Last year 15.9 percent of Cuddyer's fly balls went for homers, but this year just 10.8 percent have gone over the fence. The difference in those two rates has already cost him five homers, which goes a long way towards explaining the decreased production and figures to correct itself somewhat in the second half. In what is likely a sample-size fluke, Cuddyer has slugged just .432 against left-handed pitching after knocking them around to the tune of a .518 slugging percentage last year. LUIS CASTILLO: .305 AVG, .352 OBP, .339 SLGLuis Castillo is on pace for his lowest on-base percentage and OPS since he was a 25-year-old. For a player whose game is based on speed, that might suggest he's slowing down and losing hits in the process. However, the numbers disagree. Castillo is bunting for hits more than ever and sports a .333 batting average on balls in play that's in line with his career norms. For a player who leads the league in ground-ball percentage, that's an indication that he can still get down the first-base line pretty quickly. Castillo's decreased production is actually due to a loss of walks and power, although the latter could involve not legging out as many doubles. Castillo's Isolated Power has been cut in half, but that's not overly concerning for a leadoff man who's always been among the least-powerful hitters in baseball. Castillo's job is clearly to get on base, which is why a 21 percent drop in walks is a much bigger concern. His .305 batting average looks nice, but it's incredibly empty and masks a drop in value. JASON BARTLETT: .254 AVG, .334 OBP, .321 SLGJason Bartlett has made big strides in two key areas offensively this season, upping his walk rate by 48 percent and producing 11 percent more line drives. Surprisingly, it hasn't led to an overall increase in production, in large part because Bartlett's batting average on balls in play has dropped from .361 to .293. While .361 was likely unsustainable to begin with, it's odd to see a speedy player up his already solid line-drive percentage while seeing his average on balls in play drop by 19 percent. Because of that, I'd expect Bartlett to improve his numbers in the second half as a few more bloopers and choppers begin falling in for hits. It's interesting to note that Bartlett has hit .270/.350/.343 since beginning the season in a 1-for-20 slump, which is essentially the same production that Castillo has provided, except in a different package. Also of note is that Bartlett has gone 17-for-18 (94 percent) stealing bases and is now 33-for-39 (85 percent) during his big-league career. JASON KUBEL: .250 AVG, .302 OBP, .404 SLGJason Kubel's overall production remains sub par, but various components of his performance have actually been good and much better than last season. He's striking out seven percent less, walking 27 percent more, hitting for slightly more power, and keeping the ball off the ground. Kubel's line-drive percentage ranks fifth in the entire league and is up 14 percent from last year. So far at least his batting average on balls in play doesn't match, but expect that to correct itself in the second half. It's been a tale of two seasons for Kubel, who began the year with a measly .310 slugging percentage and zero homers through his first 108 plate appearances. Since then, he's slugging .471 with seven homers in 155 plate appearances. Even with the slow start, Kubel's .154 Isolated Power is virtually tied with Cuddyer for third-best on the team. Kubel is hitting .300/.364/.425 against left-handed pitching, but Ron Gardenhire continues to regularly bench him against lefties to "protect" him. NICK PUNTO: .212 AVG, .313 OBP, .272 SLGWhen Nick Punto was hitting well last season, I wrote that he "found success because he stopped focusing on drawing walks and pretending he's a power hitter." Looking to put the ball in play rather than working deep counts was a good approach for a hitter who has no power and struggles to make contact. Unfortunately, he's back to old habits, with a 15 percent increase in strikeouts and a 38 percent jump in walks. That tradeoff works for some, but for Punto it means letting hittable pitches go by. The result is a 32 percent drop in line-drive percentage, which coincides with Punto's batting average on balls in play plummeting from .345 to .252. When you have the power to make pitchers pay for mistakes or possess the skills to make solid contact in unfavorable counts, then taking tons of pitches makes sense. When you're Punto, it just means that you've been reduced to coaxing walks in between making easy outs. It was fun while it lasted, but this third baseman has turned back into a pumpkin. MIKE REDMOND: .287 AVG, .332 OBP, .351 SLGLast season Mike Redmond swung at just about everything and seemingly always found a hole, hitting .341 thanks to a .384 batting average on balls in play that would have ranked second in the league (one spot ahead of Mauer and behind only Derek Jeter) if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That average on balls in play, which included a ridiculous .443 mark against left-handed pitching, was clearly unsustainable and the drop to .316 this year is due in part to his luck evening out. Redmond has also seen his line-drive percentage and ground-ball percentage fall significantly, which means that he's hitting far more easily catchable fly balls. His production is down across the board save for a huge increase in walk rate, but even now only Hunter draws free passes less often among the team's regulars. Redmond remains an outstanding backup catcher, but he's clearly misused as a designated hitter and last season looks like an obvious fluke when viewed in the context of his career. JEFF CIRILLO: .273 AVG, .338 OBP, .391 SLGMuch like Redmond, Jeff Cirillo's solid 2006 season in Milwaukee was based upon an unsustainably good batting average on balls in play. That number has dipped from .360 to .287 this season, taking Cirillo's overall production down along with it. Interestingly, aside from losing some of his luck, many elements of Cirillo's performance have improved. He's cut his strikeouts by 39 percent while upping both his walk rate and Isolated Power, and his line-drive percentage remains relatively close. The big difference simply comes down to a bunch of balls that went for hits last season finding gloves this time around. While it might seem difficult to believe about someone who was 36 years old last season, Cirillo has been hurt by a lack infield hits. Last year 12 percent (10-of-84) of his hits never left the infield, whereas this season that number has fallen to six percent (2-of-35). Odd as it sounds, bad wheels might be hurting Cirillo's offense a lot more than Castillo's. JASON TYNER: .268 AVG, .318 OBP, .317 SLGAfter riding a high line-drive percentage and good work on balls in play to an empty .312 batting average last year, Jason Tyner has essentially done nothing well this year. His walk rate is 40 percent worse than league average, his line-drive rate is 21 percent below league average, and Castillo and Erick Aybar are the only hitters in the league who've shown less power while batting at least 150 times. All that and he's started 14 times at designated hitter and another 15 times in an outfield corner. The amazing thing is that even when Tyner is benefiting from an usually high batting average on balls in play, like he did in 2006, his entire offensive value boils down to hitting a single three times out of every 10 at-bats. He doesn't draw walks or hit for any kind of power, so when the singles dry up he has zero worth offensively. For all his speed and supposed small-ball ability, Tyner has just six infield hits and only two AL hitters have grounded into a higher percentage of their double-play opportunities. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
It's not really a new blog entry, but ...Twins-related blogging will resume tomorrow with the second installment (and hitters portion) of my "Compared to Last Season" entry. In the meantime, consider checking out a pair of new columns that I wrote for Rotoworld/NBCSports.com: Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, July 09, 2007
Compared to Last Season ... (Part 1: Pitchers)Last week I devoted a pair of entries to examining how the Twins fared through exactly one half of the schedule, looking at the pitching staff on Tuesday and the lineup on Thursday. The entries focused on the team as a whole, but with the All-Star break leaving us without games to watch I'd like to take this opportunity to delve a little deeper into the performances of individual players. Specifically, comparing how each player's first-half performance this year compares to their season totals from last year. Today I'll tackle the pitchers and later this week I'll cover the hitters. Rather than a focus on stuff like win-loss records and ERAs, which often leave a lot to be desired, what you'll see quoted instead are more advanced metrics that attempt to break down a player's performance in a more detailed and complete manner. In other words, rather than simply saying that a pitcher is 6-3 with a 4.50 ERA, these numbers will help show how they got there. Here's a quick list of the metrics I'll be using: xFIP - Expected Fielding Independent Pitching SO% - Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout BB% - Percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk HR% - Percentage of plate appearances ending in a home run GB% - Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls BIP - Batting average on balls in play If you're interested in learning more about any of those numbers, check out The Hardball Times' stats glossary or Dave Cameron's excellent primer on "evaluating pitching talent" over at U.S.S. Mariner. With that too-long introduction out of the way, let's dive right in ... JOHAN SANTANA: 121.0 IP, 2.75 ERAAlready one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers in baseball, Johan Santana has induced even fewer ground balls this season. Fly balls are typically easier to convert into outs than ground balls, which is why his batting average on balls in play has improved from .269 to .256. However, fly balls can also leave the ballpark, which is why he's served up a homer about 35 percent more often. The end result is that Santana has been slightly less effective, especially considering the league-wide drop in offense. However, his strikeout rate remains outstanding (only Erik Bedard can top it among AL starters) and Santana's tendency to thrive in the second half is obviously well documented. He's been one of the five best starters in the league during the first half and heads into the All-Star break having gone 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his last five outings. With a little better run support--the Twins scored three or fewer runs in 10 of his 18 starts--Santana could easily make a run at his third Cy Young award. BOOF BONSER: 103.1 IP, 4.70 ERAThe general perception seems to be that Boof Bonser has been a disappointment this season, but his overall performance has actually been better than last year in several key spots. For one thing, he's upped what was already a very good strikeout rate, whiffing 20.7 percent of the batters he faced in the first half to rank 13th in the league. Along with that, he's induced more ground balls and, in turn, done a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark. He's struggled with control, where a 50 percent increase in walks has often kept Bonser from working deep into games and feeds into the idea that he's taken a step backward. However, a big part of his quasi-struggles comes from a .321 batting average on balls in play, which is significantly worse than Bonser's .294 mark last season and suggests that he's likely been a bit unlucky. Bonser's 4.16 xFIP ranks 19th in the league, one spot behind Dan Haren and one spot ahead of Justin Verlander. CARLOS SILVA: 110.0 IP, 4.58 ERACarlos Silva has sliced his ERA from 5.94 to 4.58, but his xFIP suggests that the gap in his overall performance hasn't been quite that huge. However, there's little doubt that Silva has improved significantly this season, upping his strikeouts by 14 percent and keeping the ball on the ground eight percent more often, which has helped him cut the homers allowed in half. His walks have gone up nearly 30 percent, but Silva's walk rate still ranks ninth among AL starters. He's still not even close to an extreme ground-ball pitcher (despite what Bert Blyleven repeats a dozen times during each of Silva's starts), but Silva has at least gotten back to having an above-average ground-ball percentage after spending last season as a fly-ball pitcher. Silva has statistically been somewhat lucky when it comes to fly balls not leaving the ballpark, but if yesterday's outing against the White Sox is any indication that could quickly even out in the second half. SCOTT BAKER: 52.0 IP, 5.71 ERALast season, Scott Baker was about as extreme a fly-ball pitcher as there is and because of that it's not surprising that he served up 17 homers in 83.1 innings. He's still very much a fly-ball pitcher, but Baker has induced 17 percent more ground balls this year while slicing his home-run rate by 20 percent. In other words, for all the talk of needing to "keep the ball down," he's done exactly that. Along with his typically solid strikeout and walk rates, that adds up to a very good pitcher in terms of xFIP. Why doesn't his 5.71 ERA match his 3.96 xFIP? For one thing, Baker's .323 batting average on balls in play is higher than you'd expect from an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Beyond that, his percentage of fly balls that have turned into homers is very high and his percentage of runners stranded on base is very low, both of which figure to improve. Baker's first half has been filled with great starts and horrible starts, and the inconsistency could play a part in his mismatched numbers given the small sample size. JOE NATHAN: 37.1 IP, 2.17 ERAWith a 2.17 ERA and 16 saves in 18 chances, Joe Nathan had a fantastic first half. However, his strikeout rate is down 25 percent and his walks have risen 30 percent. Those are concerning signs for a 32-year-old closer, although he still ranked ninth among AL relievers in strikeout rate and the lone "homer" he gave up was courtesy of a Lew Ford misplay. Despite not serving up a single legitimate homer in 37 innings, opponents have hit .250 off Nathan after batting just .158 against him last year. The reason is a .340 batting average on balls in play, which is a very high number to begin with and becomes even more amazing when you consider that he allowed a measly .238 batting average on balls in play last season. The good news is that a .340 average on balls in play isn't likely to last very long (just like a .238 average on balls in play wasn't sustainable long term), so many of the bloopers and choppers that went for hits in the first half should begin to dry up. PAT NESHEK: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERABeginning with a 1.70 ERA and .129 opponent's batting average, Pat Neshek's first half was filled with amazing numbers. On a staff with extreme fly-ball pitchers like Santana, Baker, and Nathan, Neshek stood out because only seven AL pitchers with at least 25 innings had a lower ground-ball percentage. He also ranked third in strikeout rate, behind only Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez, and led all of baseball with a ridiculously good .149 batting average on balls in play. Fly balls and strikeouts is a combination that leads to a low average on balls in play, but .149 is completely unsustainable. Even with regression coming, Neshek is clearly among baseball's elite relievers. As a side-arming right-hander with extreme fly-ball tendencies he's relatively vulnerable to left-handed bats and homers, but those vulnerabilities have been vastly overstated. He's allowed 11 homers in 79 career innings, which is far from an alarming rate, and has held lefties to .176/.245/.353. MATT GUERRIER: 53.0 IP, 1.70 ERAOnce the Twins' long reliever, Matt Guerrier has claimed a prominent late-inning role this season thanks to Jesse Crain's injury, Juan Rincon's struggles, and a 1.70 ERA. No pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings turned in a lower first-half ERA and Guerrier has shown major improvement in the form of a 48-percent increase in strikeouts, along with fewer walks and more ground balls. However, Guerrier's underlying numbers suggest that he's also been quite lucky. For starters, a .216 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable long term and sticks out like a sore thumb when compared to his .290 average on balls in play heading into this season. Beyond that, he's sliced 67 percent off his home-run rate after being somewhat homer-prone in the past, which is due to just 4.2 percent of his fly balls going over the fence. The league average is about 11 percent, which is why Guerrier's xFIP is more than double his ERA. JUAN RINCON: 31.2 IP, 3.98 ERARincon's performance has steadily declined on an annual basis since 2004 and this season's deterioration has made it clear that he's no longer an elite setup man. Rincon's strikeouts are down, his walks are way up, and he served up five homers in 31.2 first-half innings after allowing a grand total of four homers in 151.1 innings between 2005 and 2006. Not only has Neshek taken over his former role as Nathan's primary setup man, Guerrier has also passed him on the late-inning hierarchy. Given his decline, it says a lot about how dominant Rincon once was that he still misses enough bats and gets enough ground balls to avoid being a liability. With that said, if the Twins decide to trade some pitching for a much-needed upgrade offensively, Rincon is seemingly the first guy to shop. At 28 years old and with three straight seasons of decline a major bounceback isn't likely, and the Twins aren't lacking in capable middle-relief options. His yearly xFIP beginning in 2004: 3.15, 3.32, 3.73, 4.66. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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