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Friday, July 20, 2007
Link-O-RamaBut feel free to decide for yourself, if you can get through it (I had a tough time and the entire show was about me). The whole thing reminds me of some sort of insane cross between the famous "boom goes the dynamite" clip and Will Ferrell's "I drive a Dodge Stratus!" skit on Saturday Night Live. You stay classy, Jeff. UPDATE: After noticing that Straub's podcast had been removed by the site hosting it, I sent an e-mail requesting that they put it back up so that everyone could listen to it. They agreed to do so, although it was apparently done under protest: This podcast had been temporarily pulled down, but it's back up now at the request of Aaron Gleeman. Mr. Gleeman asked that his readers have a chance to hear Jeff Straub's take, and that seems very fair.As both the person being criticized and the person fighting to keep the criticism available to the public, I'm confident that this must be what it's like to live in a bizarro world. Also, in the future anyone who suggests that I don't welcome criticism should be the subject of Straub's next podcast. WPA WPAUgly. In sweeping Oakland, the Twins received positive contributions from 13 players and negative contributions from eight players. In being swept by Detroit, the Twins received positive contributions from six players and negative contributions from 14 players. The pitchers combined for a solid .337 WPA, but of the 13 hitters who came to the plate against the Tigers only Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel added to the Twins' chances of winning. The other 11 hitters dragged the team down and most of them did so in a big way. Torii Hunter, Mike Redmond, Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Garrett Jones were all awful, but the two best hitters on the team, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, combined for an astounding -.617 WPA. The two of them were essentially twice as bad as the Twins' pitchers were good, combining to go 5-for-24 (.208) with eight strikeouts while leaving 17 runners on base in a series of three straight one-run losses. I couldn't care less if he walks again all year. I don't want him worrying about that. The biggest mistake that players make is they start focusing so much on their weaknesses that they don't maintain their strengths.Pena is an outstanding defensive shortstop and it's obviously vital that he "maintain" that "strength," but would trying to draw a walk once every month or so really keep him from doing that? In 130 big-league games, Pena has hit .272/.289/.367 with a 62-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so in terms of hitting there aren't a whole lot of strengths to worry about maintaining. The fine folks at NBCSports.com had me on today for some good old fashioned fantasy baseball talk. Got to chat with legendary Twins blogger/Rotoworld.com writer Aaron Gleeman, which was as close to an honor as a baseball blogger can get.If that's truly "as close to an honor as a baseball blogger can get," then we should all just quit now and move out of our parents' basements. Most of what Gardenhire said was off base. KSTP pays good money for the Twins' rights and on-air talent has no obligation to be cheerleaders for the team. If this had been a criteria, the club would have kept its games on WCCO. Not only was Thompson well within his right to broach the subject, but it's an interesting point.While the Twins may be used to the rose-colored coverage they receive from FSN and MLB.com, it's sad that so many people are resigned to the idea that media outlets working closely with who they cover should preclude them from being at all critical. Rincon was suspended for violating baseball's performance-enhancing drug policy two years ago and his performance has consistently declined in the time since then. Those are facts and commenting on them is perfectly reasonable. The loss of Shinders, known equally well for comic books, pornography, magazines, baseball cards and sports memorabilia, hit some customers hard on Monday. They compared the store to such other longtime Minneapolis originals as First Avenue and the Electric Fetus.I'll let you guess which of those things brought me to the store in my teens. Previous experience with WhatIfSports, and especially Hardball Dynasty, is a plus, but not necessarily required. If you're interested in claiming a spot and aren't worried about real-life responsibilities getting in the way of managing a fake baseball team, drop me an e-mail. And if you're curious, my team, the Minnesota Fatboys, has won three straight division titles and 91, 95, and 95 games, but have yet to make it to the World Series. I suppose we're sort of like the Twins. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Twins Notes: Tough Guys, Censors, and Little ThingsI think some people take pain in different ways. Some people have to play at 100 percent, and Joe may be one of those guys. I've seen it happen. Joe is a good player, and he wants to perform at 100 percent, not at 80 percent. Me, I grew up in a different time. I'm ready to play no matter what--broken toe, hamstring, groin, back--and that's the mentality I've grown to have.I criticized Hunter for those comments last month and was met with the usual assortment of outrage from the subset of fans who aren't being ironic when they call him the "face of the franchise" and think that he can do no wrong on or off the field. That wasn't the first time Hunter has bragged about being a tough guy and he's predictably convinced people like Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven that he's indeed "ready to play no matter what." In fact, last night Bremer launched into one of his trademark breathless monologues about how incredibly tough and durable Hunter is ... after he left the game with a strained hamstring. Hunter has missed just two games this season, but he's exited early with an injury no fewer than four times and sat out 103 games over the previous three years. To be very clear, I have absolutely zero interest in criticizing Hunter for missing time with injuries, because doing so would be absurd.  Injuries are simply a part of baseball and missing time with them rarely says anything about a player's toughness or character. With that said, for a player who's missed significant time with injuries to put forth a tough-guy act to the media at the expense of a teammate is laughable and should be noted somewhere in the midst of the continuous praise heaped on Hunter for his supposed leadership skills, self-proclaimed toughness, and sparkling personality.If you want to be an actual leader instead of merely a good player whose willingness to provide quotes has made friends in the media, don't accuse teammates of lacking the toughness to play through injuries when you've missed over 100 games in the past three years. Similarly, don't act as if the inability to play through injuries is a character flaw when, if it was, you'd be plenty flawed. Regardless of someone's "mentality," injuries happen. Fortunately for Hunter, Mauer isn't a quote machine. Here's what Ron Gardenhire had to say about the situation: It's been talked about and it's being addressed. We've had our say with our president, and he's going to take care of it. He's going to talk to them. They're supposed to be with us. And some of the things that were said were uncalled for and wrong.If you're keeping track, three of the five media outlets that offer the most Twins coverage fit Gardenhire's "they're supposed to be with us" label. No wonder people read blogs. - He keeps the clubhouse loose with jokes, entertains (and sometimes scares) teammates and coaches with his headfirst slides into first base and helps Minnesota secure victories with seemingly impossible plays in the field.Difficult as it may be to believe, Parker's job title is "associate reporter." It also helped that the Twins didn't do the little things well that they usually do. For instance, after a leadoff four-pitch walk to Lew Ford from Macay McBride in the eighth, Nick Punto failed to get a bunt down and ended up flying out to right instead. After that, Luis Castillo hit into an inning-ending double play.Given the number of times that they've failed to get a bunt down, run into an easy out on the bases, or been unable to simply make contact in a key spot, it seems that many people have a difficult time differentiating between a team that doesn't hit for any power and a team that actually "does the little things well." For instance, in leaving 14 runners on base in last night's 3-2 loss, the Twins didn't hit for any power and they didn't "do the little thing well." Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
WPA Update: Through 92 GamesWin Probability Added (WPA) is a stat that attempts to measure how much impact each play had on the outcome of a game and assigns that value to the players responsible. In other words, hitting a grand slam in the seventh inning when the score is 10-2 has considerably less WPA value than drawing a walk to lead off the ninth inning when the score is 2-2. The grand slam didn't have much impact on the likely outcome of the game, whereas the walk had a major impact on each team's chances of winning. There are much better and longer explanations of WPA than that one, of course. If you're interested in learning more about it, Dave Studeman's WPA primer at The Hardball Times is a good place to start, and both Fan Graphs and Wikipedia offer tons of good information on the subject. It's far from a perfect stat and is not meant to definitively prove how valuable each player has been, but WPA is an interesting tool to use in looking back at what has already taken place. It's important to note than WPA doesn't measure any defensive contributions, which means that strong defenders don't receive full credit for their value. Beyond that, WPA doesn't place offensive contributions in the context of position, so an .850 OPS from a catcher or shortstop is treated the same as an .850 OPS from a designated hitter or left fielder. There's nothing that can be done about measuring defense via WPA, but it's relatively easy to put the numbers in better context by using positional adjustments. With the help of David Gassko from The Hardball Times, I've taken the overall WPA totals found at Fan Graphs and adjusted them for position. Many of the adjustments are minimal, but starting pitchers are given a boost relative to relief pitchers and hitters who play up-the-middle positions are given a boost relative to hitters who man corner spots. The end result is a sort of adjusted WPA (adjWPA), which you can find below: adjWPA adjWPABetween his Babe Ruth-like heroics at the plate and a 2.60 ERA in 128 innings, Johan Santana is the clear-cut adjWPA leader through 92 games. Seeing Pat Neshek's name in the second spot might be surprising, but it probably shouldn't be. Not only does Neshek have a 1.59 ERA and .127 opponent's batting average in 45.1 high-leverage innings, he's put out tons of fires for both starters and relievers by stranding 87 percent of the baserunners he's inherited. That's the type of thing that WPA accounts for. Joe Nathan has been more hittable than last season, but has a 2.03 ERA while throwing 40 innings in almost exclusively high-leverage situations and has converted 18-of-20 save chances. Justin Morneau holds a huge lead over the rest of the position players in raw WPA, but Joe Mauer closes almost all of that gap thanks to the difference between first basemen and catchers. In other words, a .312/.405/.455 hitting line with 40 RBIs and 44 runs scored in 60 games from a catcher is pretty damn valuable. Mauer ranking fifth in adjWPA is pretty amazing given that he's missed one-third of the games and his value would be even higher than that if defensive contributions were included. Also amazing is that two-thirds of Luis Castillo's sixth-ranked adjWPA total comes from the recently completed four-game series against the A's. Castillo had a .31 adjWPA coming into the series, but racked up a .62 adjWPA in four games against Oakland. Like Mauer, his value would rise even further with defense factored in. Torii Hunter's adjWPA pales in comparison to his overall numbers, which was also the case last season. He's hit just .229/.264/.271 in close-and-late situations, which is among the worst production in the league in those spots, but has batted .333/.370/.549 when the margin is at least four runs either way. WPA reflects the fact that he's struggled in high-leverage situations while piling up a large portion of his impressive totals in spots where the outcome wasn't necessarily in doubt. Of course, a .45 adjWPA is still plenty good. It ranks seventh among MLB center fielders, whereas Hunter ranks fifth among MLB center fielders in VORP, which treats all hits equal regardless of impact. By comparison, Mauer and Morneau both rank fourth in adjWPA at their position, while Castillo ranks 12th among MLB second basemen. Similar to Hunter, Michael Cuddyer perhaps ranks lower than expected thanks to mediocre numbers in high-leverage spots and a team-high 11 double plays. Switching to the bottom of the rankings, adjWPA shows Jason Kubel as the clear least-valuable player. Not only has he hit just .241/.294/.390 overall, which is horrible for a corner outfielder, Kubel has batted .200/.238/.375 in close-and-late situations and .200/.231/.400 with two outs and runners in scoring position. Nick Punto, Sidney Ponson, Jason Tyner, Luis Rodriguez, and Ramon Ortiz round out the rest of the least-valuable group, which should come as no surprise. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Big Willow and the Other TwinsWhile the Twins swept a four-game series against the A's in what may very well prove to be the turning point of their season, I spent the weekend traveling between St. Louis Park and Elk River to watch my cousins play in state tournaments. Molly and Amy manned (or perhaps womanned) the left side of the infield for their 14-and-under traveling softball team, while Josh pitched and played shortstop for his 11-and-under traveling baseball team. As my ridiculously burnt face makes abundantly clear, I spent a total of about 20 hours watching them play in double-elimination tournaments, with the only Twins updates coming via my trusty Blackberry. For someone lucky enough to call watching Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Johan Santana a "job," comparing 14- and 15-year-old softball players with 11- and 12-year-old baseball players was quite an experience. Almost business-like in their approach at times, the girls' team had a seemingly never-ending supply of highly choreographed chants that they complimented with a constant stream of encouraging chatter. Not only had they clearly put some time and energy into what they should shout when in need of a two-out rally, they had entire routines worked out for special occasions like, say, someone leading off an inning. Amy made all the plays at shortstop and ripped line drives all over the field as the team's leadoff hitter. She went 3-for-3 in Game 1 and started what was almost a game-tying rally with a double down the left-field line in Game 3. Molly looked like Brooks Robinson vacuuming up grounders and charging in to make plays on bunts at third base, and dropped down two Rod Carew-like bunts of her own that amazingly drove in four runs in the type of small-ball that even Ron Gardenhire and I can agree on. Meanwhile, Josh's team mimicked those same chants that they've heard their older sisters do, but couldn't quite pull them off, sort of like the subtle yet massive difference between Sylvester Stallone and Frank Stallone (or, if you prefer, Jason Giambi and Jeremy Giambi). The boys also created chants mid-inning that involved random nicknames (Mr. Honeycutt, Robby Bobby Boo, Hot Pockets) and altered lyrics to songs Harry Belafonte made famous 50 years earlier. Their pregame ritual was like a high-pitched Under Armour commercial, with Josh screaming "we must protect this house!" and "all the dogs in the house" saying "woowoowoo!" as he displayed what I imagine to be the best Ray Lewis impression ever turned in by a 12-year-old boy from Minnesota. The team played well and they were plenty disciplined, but rarely did they appear to be aware that the game wasn't being played in someone's backyard, let alone nervous. Along with leading the pregame festivities, at various points Sunday afternoon Josh was dominating hitters with an overpowering fastball, rushing back to the dugout to eat a sandwich between innings, launching line drives into the right-center field gap, rallying his teammates by walking around with a bucket on his head, and shaking his hips, Willie Mays Hayes-style, as he stepped to the plate (apparently you don't get a nickname like "Hot Pockets" for nothing). In between all the bucket-wearing and house protecting, the boys from Big Willow finished runner-up in the state tournament after needing an amazing comeback earlier this summer just to get there:  Ryland Dorshow, Quinn Rohweder, Matt Magaard, Eli Cooper, Eli Badower Since I caught very little of the Twins-A's series, I tried to get at least some feel for what went on under the sunless Metrodome roof by looking at the cumulative Win Probability Added (WPA) totals for all four games via Fan Graphs. While not as interesting as figuring out what the WPA totals for my cousins' games would have been, it'll have to do: WPA WPAComing into the series, Luis Castillo had a .02 WPA in 71 games this season. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |