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Friday, August 17, 2007
Link-O-RamaWe also got a chance to chat with the Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, who called in midway through the show. I asked LEN3 about his blogging experience, we got him to take off his reporter hat to share some opinions on Terry Ryan, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Silva, and I even got in a subtle jab at Jim Souhan. The good people over at KFAN were kind enough to send me audio clips of the show, which you can listen to via the following links: - Twins Weekly on KFAN: Clip 1 (Intro, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Juan Rincon) - Twins Weekly on KFAN: Clip 2 (More on Rincon, Scott Baker) - Twins Weekly on KFAN: Clip 3 (LEN3 calls in) - Twins Weekly on KFAN: Clip 4 (More with LEN3) - Twins Weekly on KFAN: Clip 5 (Offensive struggles, Boof Bonser, Alexi Casilla, pending free agents) Things started out a little rocky when Doogie decided to lead off by telling everyone that he used to babysit me and then followed that up by discussing my lack of a girlfriend, but we ended up having some good discussions about a wide variety of topics. I was a little more serious than I would have liked (although I did make a Gleeman-versus-Bonser beer-gut comparison at one point), but for the most part I was just trying to avoid a Jeff Straub-like disaster, which was definitely accomplished. Thanks to KFAN and Doogie for allowing a complete radio novice to co-host the show. I had a lot of fun and it went much better than my talk-phobic mind expected, so hopefully I'll get a chance to do it again in the near future. I've always been a huge fan of talk radio and now that I know the whole experience can be so laid back and enjoyable, I'll be a lot more open to trying it. Take a listen to the five clips and let me know what you think (while keeping in mind that it was my first time in front of a microphone). The Rays fashion show scheduled for Sunday at the International Plaza in Tampa has been canceled because of slow ticket sales. The team is exploring other ways to help St. Joseph's Children's Hospital, the organization that was scheduled to benefit from the show.The Devil Rays are headed for their 10th straight 90-loss season, but that might be the most pathetic news in franchise history. Fortunately for them, the sexiest man in baseball is wasting away at Triple-A. - #18 Rick Aguilera - #19 Dave Goltz - #20 Camilo Pascual - #21 Gary Gaetti - #22 Zoilo Versalles - #23 Cesar Tovar - #24 Shane Mack - #25 Brian Harper - #26 Eddie Guardado - #27 Larry Hisle - #28 Tom Brunansky - #29 Kevin Tapani - #30 Jacque Jones - #31 Butch Wynegar - #32 Al Worthington - #33 Greg Gagne - #34 Matt Lawton - #35 Steve Braun - #36 Dave Boswell - #37 Jimmie Hall - #38 Eric Milton - #39 Scott Erickson - #40 Randy Bush I'm working on No. 17 right now, which means it should be done in six months. Or maybe Monday. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Twins Notes: Sexy LeCroy, Doppelgangers, and MacriThere are actually two more clips like that one, but there's a limit to how much sexiness one blog entry can handle. Bloomquist was racing up the line as [Johan] Santana ran to the bag to take the throw from first baseman Justin Morneau. It looked like Bloomquist would beat the play out for an infield hit--until he dove into the bag and was called out by an eyelash.Not only can't the 29-year-old doppelgangers help themselves when it comes to stupidly sliding into first base, for their careers Punto has hit .247/.317/.324 and Bloomquist has hit .261/.314/.334. Scary. Signing Ortiz and handing him a spot in the rotation coming out of spring training was a misguided move that went every bit as poorly as should have been expected, but recouping some of the money wasted on him doesn't help much at this point. The best-case scenario is that the Twins take the $3.5 million that's been saved by dumping Castillo, Cirillo, and Ortiz, and put it towards actually improving the team this winter. The most likely scenario is that it simply goes in Carl Pohlad's wallet. Asked to repeat Double-A, Macri has bounced back by hitting .298/.349/.502 with 11 homers, 34 total extra-base hits, and a 58-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 79 games. His strike-zone control needs work and his numbers aren't that impressive from a 25-year-old repeating Double-A, but he immediately becomes one of the better upper-minors hitting prospects in an incredibly weak system. Reportedly a capable defender at third base and second base, he's at least worth watching. Ron Gardenhire has thankfully learned to use Nathan at home once a save situation is no longer possible, but on the road he continues to hold him back in the bullpen for save chances that often never come (and some people say I give too much weight to statistics). The result is not using your best reliever in the tightest spots, which leads to 24 percent of Nathan's appearances coming in games that aren't within three runs either way while numerous close games end without him pitching. The Twins typically draft on a budget, going for players who're likely to sign and likely to accept relatively small bonuses in doing so. On the other hand, the Tigers take advantage of small-payroll teams passing on elite prospects over money by snatching them up and getting them signed. Porcello was considered the top high-school pitcher available this year and the Tigers also used their free-spending ways to snag elite prospects Andrew Miller in 2006 and Cameron Maybin in 2005. Porcello, Miller, and Maybin shouldn't have been available to the Tigers based strictly on talent, but their willingness to spend money has allowed them to stockpile elite prospects. Revere is off to a good start as a pro and Porcello may never pan out, but Miller (already in the majors) and Maybin (doing well at Double-A) both look like potential stars down the road. Compared to one of their primary rivals, the draft is now another area where the Twins face a disadvantage because of money. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #18 Rick AguileraRICHARD WARREN AGUILERA | RP/SP | 1989-1999 | CAREER STATS Working strictly as a starter, Aguilera had a 3.47 ERA and 256-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 259.1 combined innings between Single-A and Double-A. After posting a 2.51 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A to begin the 1985 season, the Mets called Aguilera up in June. He debuted on June 12 against the Phillies, tossing two scoreless innings in relief of Ron Darling and Jesse Orosco to pick up the win in an extra-inning game. Not yet 24 years old, Aguilera was in the majors for good. After debuting as a reliever, Aguilera moved into the Mets' rotation and went 9-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 19 starts. While a very solid rookie season, Aguilera was completely overshadowed by 20-year-old rotation-mate and 1984 Rookie of the Year Dwight Gooden, who went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA to win the NL Cy Young and pitching triple crown. Also on that 1985 Mets team was a 27-year-old utility infielder named Ron Gardenhire, who batted .179 in what would be his final big-league season. Aguilera began the 1986 season alongside Gooden, Darling, Sid Fernandez, and Bob Ojeda in the Mets' impressive young rotation. However, after three poor outings he was moved to the bullpen, where he tossed 19.2 innings with a 3.20 ERA to reclaim his rotation spot. Aguilera finished the season 10-7 with a 3.88 ERA in 141.2 innings for a 108-win team that will go down as one of the best in baseball history, spending the Mets' World Series run working out of the bullpen. Game 6 of the 1986 World Series is one of the most famous games of all time and will forever be linked to Bill Buckner, Mookie Wilson, Calvin Schiraldi, Bob Stanley, and Ray Knight. Despite that, you can usually stump someone by asking who the winning pitcher was. The answer? Aguilera. With the game tied at 3-3 in the ninth inning, Aguilera relieved Orosco and set the Red Sox down in order. When the Mets failed to score in their half of the inning, Aguilera stayed in for the 10th. Dave Henderson led off the inning by homering off Aguilera and after Wade Boggs doubled with two outs, Marty Barrett singled him in to put the Red Sox up 5-3. We all know what happened in the bottom of the inning, but it's amazing to think that Aguilera was nearly the goat of the game and then became the winning pitcher, yet almost no one remembers him even being involved. In fact, in a 1,400-word story about the game that ran in the Boston Globe the next morning, Aguilera is mentioned just once. While the Twins were winning a World Series of their own in 1987, Aguilera remained in the Mets' rotation and went 11-3 with a 3.60 ERA, but was limited to just 17 starts because of an elbow injury that eventually required surgery. He missed most of the 1988 season and then came back as a long reliever in 1989 after David Cone took his spot in the rotation, but was unhappy in a low-leverage bullpen role and asked to be traded. Before that could happen, Aguilera thrived as a reliever. He threw 69 innings with a 2.34 ERA and 80-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio through July and the success, combined with a more important late-inning role, caused Aguilera to tell The Sporting News: "The most amazing thing is that I'm actually learning to like being a reliever." Despite the slight change of heart, with the Mets clinging to contention and the Twins already out of it on the eve of the trading deadline, the teams completed a blockbuster trade. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Frank Viola went from Minnesota to New York for a five-player package of Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage. West was considered a premiere prospect at the time, but it turned out to be Tapani and especially Aguilera who made it one of the best swaps in Twins history. Aguilera got his wish by moving into the rotation following the trade, starting 11 games with a 3.21 ERA as Jeff Reardon finished up his third straight 30-save season. However, plans changed when Reardon left via free agency in December, signing a then-massive three-year contract with the Red Sox worth $6.8 million. Armed with a low-90s fastball, a hard-breaking slider, and a forkball that dropped off the table, Aguilera was the obvious choice to replace Reardon. "He's the most experienced we've got, the most capable strikeout pitcher," pitching coach Dick Such told the Associated Press in March of 1990. "He fits the bill." When it became clear during spring training that Aguilera would be taking over as closer, he told the Associated Press that he "was a little disappointed at first" because "I was really excited about being able to start," but added that "I'll do it for the team." Things got off to a rough start when Aguilera blew his third save chance, serving up a walk-off three-run homer to Dante Bichette on April 14, 1990, but he recovered to convert 32-of-38 save chances while posting a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings. Aguilera made the first of three straight All-Star teams in 1991, tying Reardon's team record with 42 saves while posting a 2.35 ERA and 61-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings as the Twins made their second World Series run in five seasons. A career .201 hitter with three homers in 139 at-bats, Aguilera became the first pitcher since Don Drysdale in 1965 to pinch-hit in the World Series when he came off the bench with two outs in the 12th inning of Game 3, flying out with the bases loaded. Moments later, Aguilera took the loss by giving up a walk-off single to Mark Lemke, but that was the lone postseason run he allowed while saving five of the team's eight playoff victories. He followed up the marvelous 1991 season by ranking second in the league with 41 saves in 1992, and then saved 57 of the team's 124 wins between 1993 and 1994. When baseball returned after the strike in mid-1995, Aguilera was a pending free agent and the highest paid pitcher on baseball's worst team. He posted a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 innings through early July, saving a dozen games despite the team's 19-44 start. On July 6, with Aguilera on the verge of becoming a 10-and-5 player who could veto any trades, the Twins sent him to the Red Sox for Frankie Rodriguez, a 22-year-old right-hander who Baseball America ranked as the No. 36 prospect in baseball. Rodriguez was a bust, going 25-32 with a 5.20 ERA in 509.1 innings spread over four seasons in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Aguilera picked up his first Red Sox save the next day, pitching a scoreless ninth inning against the Twins, at the Metrodome. He ended up converting 20-of-21 saves to help the Red Sox win the AL East, but saw his only playoff action in Game 1 of the ALDS, serving up a game-tying homer to Albert Belle in the 11th inning as a 100-win Indians team blitzed through the Red Sox on their way to the World Series. Aguilera hit the open market that winter, but decided to return to Minnesota on a multi-year deal with an annual salary that was less than he made the previous season. Unsatisfied with a shaky rotation that was led by a pair of 23-year-olds in Rodriguez and Brad Radke, manager Tom Kelly made Aguilera a starter again. Kelly had every reason to worry about the rotation, as Twins starters combined for a 5.48 ERA, but changing a 34-year-old Aguilera's role turned out to be a mistake. An arm injury allegedly suffered while lifting a suitcase limited Aguilera to one start in the team's first 60 games, and he went just 8-6 with a 5.42 ERA before a hamstring injury ended his season in early September. Aguilera moved back to the bullpen in 1997 and saved 64 games for a pair of sub-.500 teams over the next two seasons, but blew 18 saves and saw his ERA rise to 4.04 after compiling a 2.86 ERA during his first six seasons as Twins closer. Now 37 years old, Aguilera began the 1999 season pitching as well as ever, going 3-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21.1 innings. However, the Twins were once again the league's worst team and Aguilera was handed just eight save chances through 40 games. With the Twins sitting at 13-27 on May 21, Aguilera was traded to the Cubs along with Scott Downs for minor-league pitchers Kyle Lohse and Jason Ryan. He was gone for good this time, saving 37 games with a 4.31 ERA in two seasons with the Cubs to finish his 16-year career. Ryan appeared in a total of 24 games for the Twins, going 1-5 with a 5.94 ERA in 66.2 innings, but Lohse developed into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who went 51-57 with a 4.88 ERA before eventually wearing out his welcome midway through last season. Unlikely as it seemed at the time of each trade, the haul for Aguilera was better the second time around. Aguilera became the Twins' all-time leader in saves when he notched No. 109 in September of 1992 and is in no danger of losing the top spot any time soon after finishing with 254. He blew at least a half-dozen saves in each of his seven full seasons as Twins closer and converted 81.4 percent of his save chances in Minnesota, which is mediocre by today's standards. By comparison, current closer Joe Nathan has converted 91.9 percent of his save chances with the Twins. However, it's important to note that Kelly used Aguilera much differently than Gardenhire has used Nathan. Nathan has inherited a grand total of 30 runners in four seasons with the Twins, which works out to one inherited runner for every nine innings. Aguilera faced 38 inherited runners in his first season as Twins closer, and then saw 37 and 40 more in the next two years. In all, Aguilera inherited 207 runners during his time in Minnesota, which works out to one every 2.5 relief innings. In other words, the vast majority of Nathan's saves have come when he began an inning with a clean slate, whereas Aguilera's saves often came when he entered a game with runners on base. That goes a long way towards explaining his seemingly mediocre save percentage, and Aguilera also deserves credit for stranding over three-fourths of the runners he inherited. For a guy who never wanted to be a reliever, Aguilera's 318 career saves ranked eighth in baseball history at the time of his retirement. TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS: Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Nothing Here, But Something ThereSorry, given the state of the team right now, I couldn't bring myself to write about last night's loss. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Wait Til Next YearRather than hand rotation spots to Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, or Glen Perkins coming out of spring training, the Twins chose expensive veteran mediocrity over cheap young talent, spending about $4.5 million of their limited payroll on Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Ortiz was last effective in 2004 and posted a 5.47 ERA in 362 innings since then. Ponson was last effective in 2003 and posted a 5.76 ERA in 431 innings since then. Yet despite the presence of several talented, minimum-salaried starters and multiple weaknesses to address offensively, the Twins felt it necessary to devote an extra $4 million in payroll to fill two-fifths of the rotation with a pair of washed up veterans. Both Ortiz and Ponson predictably bombed, combining for a 6.22 ERA in 17 starts, at which point the Twins pushed them aside for the aforementioned young, inexpensive talent. Considering how things played out last season with Juan Castro and Tony Batista, it was nice that the Twins realized their mistake relatively quickly this time around, letting Ortiz and Ponson start "only" 17 games. However, they also wasted $4.5 million on 17 bad starts when they could have spent $650,000 to achieve at worst the same result, and cost themselves multiple wins in the process. Plus, they never did address those weaknesses offensively. When Nick Punto predictably turned back into a pumpkin following his career-year in 2006, Terry Ryan failed to provide a capable alternative at third base and Ron Gardenhire continued to write Punto's name into the lineup (often at the top) nearly every day. Punto ranks fifth on the team with nearly 400 plate appearances despite his awful .206/.296/.269 hitting line making him arguably the worst hitter in all of baseball this season. Rondell White was re-signed following a year in which he hit .246/.276/.365 while sitting out 63 games, which wasn't a horrible move given how well he hit down the stretch. However, not having a capable backup plan in place for when his inevitable injuries knocked him out of the lineup was inexcusable. White made it through three games before heading to the disabled list, at which point the Twins filled his spot in the lineup with the likes of Lew Ford, Jason Tyner, Josh Rabe, and Mike Redmond. Tyner is one of the worst-hitting outfielders of the past half-decade, yet he's racked up over 225 plate appearances while often starting at designated hitter and leading off against left-handed pitching. Seriously. Despite a .319 career slugging percentage, Tyner has started at designated hitter 14 times (while manning an outfield corner another 30 times). And despite a putrid .257/.299/.265 career hitting line against lefties, he led off against a southpaw three times in a four-game stretch two weeks ago.Ford began the year on the disabled list following knee surgery and hasn't been an effective hitter since 2004, yet racked up 123 plate appearances in less than three months while hitting .232/.301/.366. Redmond is a fine backup catcher whose solid work against southpaws makes him a perfect caddy for Joe Mauer. Unfortunately, he's slugged .368 for his career, including .272/.328/.332 against righties, which makes him horribly miscast as a designated hitter, a role he's filled 14 times. Along with Punto dragging the offense down at third base, the infield has also featured Luis Rodriguez coming to the plate 119 times despite showing over the past two years that he offers almost nothing offensively or defensively. Rodriguez has hit a Punto-like .196/.271/.280 after batting .235/.315/.322 last season and is stretched defensively as a middle infielder, yet the Twins chose to keep him around when they jettisoned Jeff Cirillo and his .293/.348/.466 line against lefties last weekend. None of these things are going to crush a team on their own, but taken collectively they quickly begin to add up. If they avoid wasting time, money, and wins on Ortiz and Ponson, perhaps they find some semblance of depth offensively. If they add some moderately capable bats, perhaps they don't give over 1,000 plate appearances to Punto, Tyner, Ford, Rodriguez, and Redmond (plus another hundred or so to Rabe, Darnell McDonald, Garrett Jones, and Tommy Watkins). Instead, the depth-starved offense ranks 12th among AL teams in runs scored thanks largely to a league-worst .393 slugging percentage and has averaged an MLB-worst 3.1 runs per game since the All-Star break. And that comes despite the foursome of Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Michael Cuddyer combining to bat .288/.353/.492 with 66 homers in 1,738 plate appearances. The rest of the team has hit a combined .249/.309/.331 with 23 homers in 2,708 plate appearances.In the past Ryan's inability to improve the margins of his roster to push the team over the top has perhaps kept the Twins from following up their division titles with corresponding deep playoff runs, but this year it may lead to essentially a wasted season that simply didn't have to be wasted. With Hunter on the verge of free agency and Johan Santana one year closer to the open market himself, the Twins have failed to live up to their reputation for "doing the little things" so well, both on and off the field. With an eye that's clearly pointed toward the future and a mindset that's always locked at conservative, Ryan failed to adequately prepare this team by wasting money on misguided attempts to fill spots that didn't need filling and simultaneously neglecting spots that were screaming for help. It now seems likely that the Twins will wind up a handful of games out of the playoffs in a year when Hunter, Mauer, Cuddyer, and Morneau have been outstanding and the pitching staff is among the league's best. If that happens, Ryan's inability to provide offensive depth while putting the team in another early hole behind more veteran mediocrity will prove to be the difference. Many people will no doubt see a young team that was within striking distance of making the playoffs and simply write this off as a rebuilding year, but somewhere between Ortiz, Ponson, and the never-ending stream of plate appearances being wasted on weak bats are those handful of wins that could have put the Twins back into the playoffs. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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E-Mail: aarongleeman@gmail.com Twitter: twitter.com/aarongleeman Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Kelsie Smith Kelly Thesier Seth Stohs Stick and Ball Guy Nick Nelson Parker Hageman Phil Mackey John Bonnes Edward Thoma Josh Johnson Howard Sinker Twinkie Town Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Hardball Talk Rotoworld Fan Graphs Baseball-Reference.com The Hardball Times Baseball America Baseball Think Factory Bill Simmons Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Big League Stew The Big Lead Deadspin Fanhouse Baseball Prospectus U.S.S. Mariner Al's Ramblings Sports By Brooks Baseball Musings MLB Trade Rumors Non-Sports Stuff MinnPost Alan Sepinwall David Brauer Adam Carolla Poker Road Gorilla Mask Wicked Chops Poker WWTDD? Popoholic The Superficial Steve Silver Tao of Poker Discount Sporting Goods ![]() Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |