|
|
Friday, September 28, 2007
Link-O-Rama[The MVP] would be a cool award to get but that's not something I think about besides the fact my dad never did it. If I do get it, that shuts him up again. ... That's what drives me. People said I was too big and all this, and the only reason I got drafted was because of the name. That's why I'm so passionate about playing. I don't mind people comparing me to him but I'm a completely different player. One day I want people to mention my name and not have to mention his.Like Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. before him, Prince is well on his way to making sure that Cecil goes down as "Prince Fielder's father." Of course, given the well-known drama between them and the fact that he's quoted as calling his dad "not really the brightest guy" in the same article that produced the above quotes, even that might not make Prince happy. He's definitely someone to root for (and not just because he looks like me in a uniform). YEAR SO SO%Kazmir struck out 26.9 percent of his batters faced for a total of 239. As for the streak of 123 straight five-inning starts, it's the third-longest of the past 50 years behind Curt Schilling (147) and David Cone (145). Between the lost strikeout crown, snapped streak, career-high 13 losses, league-leading 33 homers allowed, and a 3.33 ERA that's his worst since 2001, much will likely be made of Santana having an "off year." While true to some extent, Santana's xFIP shows that it wasn't off by much: YEAR xFIPSantana's 3.56 xFIP is his worst in four seasons as a full-time starter, but it still ranks third among AL pitchers, behind only Erik Bedard (3.14) and Felix Hernandez (3.49). He ranks ahead of every other starter in the league, including popular Cy Young candidates like Josh Beckett (3.60), C.C. Sabathia (3.63), Fausto Carmona (4.00), Dan Haren (4.00), John Lackey (4.10), Kelvim Escobar (4.32), and Chien-Ming Wang (4.36). If for some reason you can only waste your day watching one 51-second video of an incredibly startled guy making a ridiculous face while his friends laugh at his expense, make it that one. Enjoy the final weekend of the Twins' season and come back Monday for the first entry of a too-long offseason that I have some (hopefully) interesting Twins-related projects planned for. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Twins Notes: Retirement, Targets, Changes, and LawsWhether simply healthy or motivated by the quasi-demotion, White returned to bat .321/.354/.538 in 45 games after the All-Star break and then went 5-for-12 (.417) with a homer in the three-game playoff series loss against the A's. That amazing turnaround was enough to convince the Twins that White's horrendous first half was behind him, so they bought out his 2007 option for $750,000 and re-signed him to a new one-year deal worth $2.75 million. Nicknamed "RonDL" for having played as many as 140 games just once in 15 major-league seasons, White made it through three games before going down with a calf injury. He missed the next 96 games before returning in mid-July and has batted .163/.220/.293 in 32 games since then, saying Monday that there's a "99-percent chance" that he'll retire at season's end. "My body hurts," White said. "There's a good chance this is it." I liked the decision to sign White as a free agent two years ago and thought that re-signing him was a decent gamble given how well he hit in the second half, but there's no spinning the fact that he's been an unmitigated disaster. Cash-strapped and hurting for offense, the Twins have paid White $6 million to split time between designated hitter and left field while hitting .226/.264/.346 and playing 42 percent of the team's games.White falling apart shouldn't have come as a huge shock given his lengthy injury history and advanced age, but he hit .289/.341/.476 in the three seasons prior to signing with the Twins and had an OPS between .790 and .900 in eight of the previous nine years. There was no reason for the Twins to expect the two worst seasons of his career and he seemed like a perfect low-risk pickup. Instead, no Twins player has contributed less while having more words devoted to him in the Minneapolis Star Tribune. I've always loved hitting in the Metrodome. If I'm not playing in Kansas City, I'd love to play on a winning team, and Minnesota's been that for a long time. I don't know. We'll pray about my future and see which door God opens. I know there will be one that will be wide open, and that's the one I'll walk through, whether it's here in Kansas City or someplace else.Sweeney was one of baseball's most underrated hitters during his prime, batting .313/.383/.521 from 1999-2005 while posting an OPS of at least .850 every year. Unfortunately, he's 33 now and injuries have kept him off the field while turning him into a shell of his former self, as he's hit just .261/.333/.427 while playing 41 percent of the Royals' games over the past two seasons. A one-year investment similar to White's original deal wouldn't be a bad gamble, but anything beyond that is a mistake. YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPS It's just going to depend on how everything breaks down and how his health is, with his arm, and what our needs are. If we're in dire need of starting pitching, he'll go into the rotation. If we need him to come out of the bullpen, that's where he'll go. It just depends on how everything else breaks down. There are a lot of arguments as to whether he should be a starter or a reliever. What it comes down to is that he's a young pitcher with a great arm.I ranked Perkins as the Twins' third-best prospect coming into the season and wrote that he "has No. 2 starter potential," so it'd be nice to see him given an extended chance to start before being pigeonholed into a bullpen role based on some arm problems and 32.2 good relief innings. Either way, Perkins is one of many reasons to think that the Twins' pitching staff is in excellent shape long term whether or not Johan Santana sticks around. He's giving himself an opportunity to come into spring training and fight for a job. He'll be an option for second base, at least be in the mix for it, and I think that's all he expects.That's quite a change. Last week Punto "would have a head up" for the job and "has got a lead going into spring training." Now Punto will "come into spring training and fight for a job" and "will be an option for second base" who will "at least be in the mix for it." Either someone in the front office talked to Gardenhire, the criticism reached him, or he's simply at the point where he amuses himself by tossing out ever-changing quotes that he knows fans will be confused by. His noodle arm was on full display as the Tigers went 3-for-3 stealing bases, but LeCroy showed the soft hands and solid pitch-calling ability that have allowed him to compile a 4.63 career catcher's ERA. Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense states that "a catcher's defensive reputation is inversely proportional to their offensive abilities," so LeCroy being washed up as a hitter probably made it more likely that the Twins would give him time at catcher in his return to the team. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Player XEarlier this season Torii Hunter suggested publicly that Joe Mauer needed to be more willing to play through injuries despite the fact that Hunter himself had missed 103 games over the previous three seasons, with Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan later jumping on the bandwagon by first opining that Mauer should move to a less-demanding position defensively and then essentially accusing Mauer of inventing injuries. Mauer has largely remained silent despite the various criticisms thrown his way, but Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com LaVelle E. Neal III reported Sunday that he's been playing through a hernia since midseason and may require surgery. Along with the apparent hernia, Mauer was briefly shut down in spring training because of a stress reaction in his leg, missed a month with a strained quadriceps, and was sidelined for two weeks with a strained hamstring. He's clearly been playing at less than 100 percent while gingerly jogging around the bases since returning from the hamstring injury earlier this month, but that doesn't seem to have done much to lessen the perception that he's fragile, injury prone, and lacks toughness. Meanwhile, Mauer has fought through the various injuries to log almost 800 innings at baseball's most physically demanding position after catching 1,000 innings in 2005 and 1,059 innings in 2006. Mauer ranks 12th among AL catchers in innings behind the plate this season and combined over the past three years only 10 catchers in all of baseball have logged more innings defensively. During that three-year span, he's caught essentially the same number of innings as Yadier Molina, has been behind the plate more often than Bengie Molina, Ramon Hernandez, Johnny Estrada, Michael Barrett, John Buck, and Miguel Olivo, and is within about 100 innings of Jason Varitek and Brian Schneider. Mauer ranks first in all of baseball with a 54.5 caught-stealing percentage this season and combined over the past three years has gunned down 44.2 percent of would-be base-stealers. He also ranks fourth among all MLB catchers in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) this season and combined over the past three years only Victor Martinez (154.4) and Jorge Posada (135.8) boast a higher VORP total than Mauer's 129.6.Mauer suffers from ridiculously high expectations, a focus on the few things he can't do instead of the many things he thrives at, and a lack of understanding about the difference between catcher and other positions. He's been among the best handful of catchers in baseball this year despite the fact that his season is often treated as a huge disappointment and over the past three years he's logged nearly 3,000 innings behind the plate while arguably being the single most valuable catcher in all of baseball. Part of Mauer's "problem" is that hitting .347 as a 23-year-old catcher tends to raise expectations to unreachable levels. It sounds absurd now, but at this time last year the comments section here held heated arguments about whether or not Mauer should be "expected" to hit .347 again. The notion is ridiculous and most people surely realize that now, but at the time there were a shocking number of people who felt that Mauer should be counted on to make history on an annual basis. Instead, what he's done this season is essentially duplicate his 2005 campaign: YEAR AVG OBP SLG IsoP IsoD BB% SO% BIPThose seasons are amazingly similar, especially considering that they surround a year in which he hit .347. Mauer drew a non-intentional walk in 9.5 percent of his plate appearances while batting .347 in 2006, which fits between his 2005 and 2007 walk rates, but the big differences came in strikeouts and batting average on balls in play. In 2005 and 2007, Mauer struck out 11.3 percent of the time and batted .318 on balls in play. In 2006, Mauer struck out 8.8 percent of the time and batted .364 on balls in play. When you put 20 percent more balls in play and see them fall for hits 15 percent more often, that adds up to a huge increase in batting average. Mauer also had 28 percent more power in 2006, but was far from a power hitter, so the big difference in performance came from making more contact and seeing an unsustainably high percentage of balls in play drop for hits. Not only was counting on a repeat of 2006 silly, a career filled with his 2005 and 2007 seasons would be Hall of Fame-caliber for a catcher. One of my favorite stats to look at when comparing hitters from different points in baseball history is OPS+, which adjusts for the often sizable differences in ballparks, eras, and leagues. A hitter playing his home games at Coors Field in 2007 is compiling numbers in a significantly different environment for offense than a hitter playing his home games at Dodger Stadium in 1968, and OPS+ attempts to adjust for that so fair comparisons can be made.An OPS+ of 100 is exactly average. For their careers, Neifi Perez is at 63 and Albert Pujols is at 169. As a 24-year-old catcher finishing up his fourth big-league season, Mauer has compiled an OPS+ of 124, which coincidentally is the same OPS+ that Kirby Puckett finished his career with. To put that in further context, here's a complete list of all the catchers in baseball history with at least 1,000 games behind the plate who can boast a career OPS+ equal to or better than Mauer's: OPS+Mauer has a long way to go before he reaches 1,000 games at catcher, but that's impressive company given that he's still several seasons from his assumed prime. So far, few catchers in baseball history have been as good offensively as Mauer. If you're curious, the average MLB catcher has posted an 88 OPS+ this season, whereas the average third baseman and designated hitter are at 107 and 110. Lastly, take a look at the following comparison of two well-known players and their career numbers: AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+Both guys are active players who man up-the-middle positions defensively, but they're perceived much differently. Player X gets picked apart by fans and criticized constantly by the local media, while Player Z is perhaps the most fawned-upon player in baseball and has national media members asserting that he's "the best player of my lifetime" and "the best baseball player I ever saw." Oh, and between the two mystery men, only Player X has won a batting title. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Hunter's Home FarewellSaturday afternoon was the inaugural Stick and Ball Guy Convention, so I headed downtown for some breakfast at Hubert's before taking in the Twins-White Sox game at the Metrodome with a dozen other citizens of SBG Nation. A good time was had by all despite the fact that we saw Scott Baker exit early with an injury, Boof Bonser cough up five runs in relief, and Nick Punto go 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in an 8-3 loss that dropped the Twins to 75-79. While ugly, the game was probably fitting given the group's collective disappointment and frustration. Will Young and Kyle Eliason booed Punto several dozen times, Bonser's stock continued to plummet, Jim Thome's 504th career homer was one of the cheapest that you'll ever see, Darin Erstad hit a ball into the upper deck as SBG speculated that he'll be Torii Hunter's replacement next year, and we got to see a lineup that featured Punto, Chris Heintz, Luis Rodriguez, and Jason Tyner. If we weren't going to see a good game, it was certainly the right kind of bad game. Of course, Sunday afternoon's game would have been slightly more enjoyable, with Kevin Slowey setting a career-high by striking out nine batters over seven innings of one-run ball, Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla making a rare appearance in the same lineup together, and Hunter playing what seems likely to be the final home game of his Twins career. Seeing his Twins career wind down is sad, but the fact that Hunter turned down a chance to remain in Minnesota makes it a little easier to take. I don't think Hunter handled his pending free agency very well publicly, but I don't blame him one bit for wanting to maximize his earning potential. Still, at the end of the day he's choosing money over remaining with the Twins. Rather than take $45 or maybe even $60 million to stay in Minnesota, he'll likely be getting $75 or $90 million to leave. That's obviously a huge difference, but if Hunter truly had his heart set on staying with the Twins he could do so while still making a huge amount of money. I'm of the opinion that the difference between $45 or $60 million and $75 or $90 million is a lot smaller than it looks, but a) that's easy for me to say when I'll never come close to making that type of money, and b) I have no idea whether or not Hunter actually wants to stay with the Twins regardless of the money involved. If he does, then my guess is that he'll regret leaving over money. However, it's very possible that he's simply ready to move on or at least willing to move on enough that he values maximizing his salary over remaining in Minnesota, in which case my only beef is with the way he tried to spin the situation in the media. I'd love to see Hunter return, but committing $75 or $90 million to a 32-year-old center fielder with a .271/.325/.470 career hitting line just isn't something that makes sense of the Twins. Hunter has been the Twins' second-best player this season and if he leaves it will come following what is arguably the most-valuable season of his nine-year career. He's been so good, in fact, that by procrastinating with my "Top 40 Minnesota Twins" series I've given Hunter enough time to move up several spots. You'll have to wait a while to find out exactly where he ends up in the rankings, but for now suffice it to say that he's one of the elite players in team history.If he leaves, Hunter will make what's already a weak offense significantly weaker while opening up a huge hole in center field that the organization has no strong internal options to fill. Outside of the organization there are plenty of quality options to replace him, which I'll discuss in the coming weeks, but I'm nervous about the Twins' ability to identify and pursue those options given their reluctance to trade young pitching for young hitting and their frustrating preference for washed-up veterans. The thought of Erstad or Tyner or Lew Ford or Denard Span attempting to fill Hunter's shoes is a scary one, but faults and all the Twins should be able to uncover a better solution. If they can't, then their problems go far beyond what happens with Hunter. Replacing him is just one of several key decisions that the Twins will have to make soon and they'll need to avoid some of their recent mistakes in order to begin another success cycle like the one that Hunter was a big part of from 2001-2006. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
|
E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com Fat-O-Meter Twins Wins: 41 Pounds Lost: 30.5 Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Stick and Ball Guy Seth Stohs Nick Nelson Over The Baggy Howard Sinker Twinkie Town John Bonnes Phil Miller Jim Mandelaro Josh Johnson Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Rotoworld NBC Sports Dead Spin The Big Lead AOL Fanhouse The Hardball Times Baseball Prospectus Baseball Think Factory Baseball America U.S.S. Mariner Baseball Musings Minor League Ball Al's Ramblings 6-4-2 Bill Simmons Shyster Ball Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Gregg Rosenthal MLB Trade Rumors Sports By Brooks Baseball-Reference.com Fan Graphs Non-Sports Stuff MinnPost Alan Sepinwall Gorilla Mask WWTDD? Buzz Machine Egotastic A Socialite's Life Popoholic Hollywood Rag Splash News Online Hollywood Tuna IDLYITW The Superficial TMZ.com Perez Hilton Steve Silver David Brauer Tony Pierce Wicked Chops Poker Shelley Rants Away Adam Carolla Poker Road Guinness and Poker Tao of Poker Site Sponsors Chicago Cubs Merchandise Purchase MLB baseball tickets, New York Yankees tickets, Boston Red Sox tickets, Chicago Cubs tickets and San Francisco Giants tickets from Neco.com. ![]() Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Ben Revere, CF 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Angel Morales, CF 5. Shooter Hunt, SP 6. Danny Valencia, 3B 7. Anthony Swarzak, SP 8. Tyler Robertson, SP 9. Jeff Manship, SP 10. Jose Mijares, RP 11. Chris Parmelee, RF 12. Kevin Mulvey, SP 13. Carlos Gutierrez, SP 14. David Bromberg, SP 15. Deolis Guerra, SP 16. Michael McCardell, SP 17. Luke Hughes, 3B 18. Robert Delaney, RP 19. Anthony Slama, SP 20. Steven Tolleson, SS 21. Joe Benson, CF 22. Alex Burnett, SP 23. Trevor Plouffe, SS 24. Deibinson Romero, 3B 25. Brian Duensing, SP 26. Rene Tosoni, RF 27. Dustin Martin, CF 28. David Winfree, RF 29. Jason Pridie, CF 30. Philip Humber, SP 31. Jonathan Waltenbury, 1B 32. Tyler Ladendorf, SS 33. Steve Singleton, 2B 34. Oswaldo Sosa, SP 35. Bobby Lanigan, SP 36. Reggie Williams, 2B 37. Daniel Ortiz, RF 38. Danny Rams, C 39. Dan Osterbrock, SP 40. Charles Nolte, RP |