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Friday, October 19, 2007
Link-O-RamaIf the Twins can't re-sign free agent Torii Hunter, plans are to trade, sign a free agent or go in-house to find his center field replacement.In other words, Walters has confirmed that the team plans to put a player in center field next season. I think people were saying [Gale] Sayers and [Eric] Dickerson, kind of a combination there. That's what he looks like to me. He's got that shift of gears like Sayers had and of course he has that tremendous speed that Dickerson had; somewhere in there. I was there George Rogers' rookie year and I was there Earl Campbell's rookie year and those guys were amazing and had great years and this guy is right up there with them.In terms of running style and immediate impact, the Eric Dickerson comparison is a pretty good one. Aaron Gleeman mocks a writer at the Star-Tribune for his "lame" pop culture remarks in the writer's column yet clearly adores Simmons. In five years if Simmons has been unable to make a transition will Gleeman still be complimentary?Similar sentiments have occasionally been posted in the comments section here and the randomness of bringing my name up in the Simmons thread makes me think that they came from the same person. Anyway, it's often difficult to explain your feelings about something as subjective as writing or comedy, but the short version is that Simmons strikes me as funny, entertaining, and likable. Souhan is, to me at least, none of the above. In baseball terms, it's the same reason that not all .250 hitters are equal. If a designated hitter bats .250 with zero power and no plate discipline, he's a whole lot less valuable than a Gold Glove shortstop who bats .250 with 50 homers and 100 walks. To me Souhan is like the .250-hitting DH in that he brings very little to the table along with his hit-or-miss pop-culture references and attempts at humor. He's not consistently funny or capable of particularly good analysis, and he's not the world's greatest story-teller. Souhan hits an empty .250. Meanwhile, Simmons also fills his columns with pop-culture references and attempts at humor, but the difference is that he's actually funny, entertaining, and likable. Whether the question is how I can like Simmons and not Souhan or how I can praise one .250 hitter while criticizing another, the answer basically boils down to "one is good and the other isn't." I won't delve any further into my oft-stated dislike of Souhan, but I will point to this video of Simmons doing ... well, just watch: Perhaps it's projected feelings about myself, but it's my experience that many writers are disappointing outside of writing. As I've said many times, I got into writing partly because it doesn't involve talking, and I'm guessing that I'm not alone. Simmons' massive popularity means that he could no doubt do tons of radio and television if he chose to, so the fact that he doesn't suggests that he might feel similarly. In fact, the above video begins with him saying, "I'm terrible at TV, why did you make me do this?" Of course, the video actually shows Simmons coming across almost exactly as he does in print--funny, quick-witted, personable--and his weekly podcasts on ESPN.com are fantastic for the same reasons. That might not seem so remarkable, but for many and perhaps even most writers it is. All of which is to say that Simmons is far from perfect and open to criticism, but strikes me and a huge number of people as funny, entertaining, and likable in print, on radio, and now in videos. Souhan? Not so much. Hitting .365 in 2000 was a massive fluke in the context of his entire career, but Barnes likely deserved more of a chance to sink or swim in the majors given that he hit .303/.364/.448 in 960 minor-league games spread over a decade. Now 31 years old he's given up on becoming a major-league outfielder again, but is trying to get back to the big leagues as a knuckleball pitcher. Here are Barnes' combined numbers since moving to the mound two seasons ago: G GS IP ERA SO BB HR OAVGA 153-to-153 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 187.2 innings is obviously ugly (and Barnes also plunked 27 batters), but his .225 opponent's batting average shows that he's plenty tough to hit and knuckleballers can't be judged like traditional pitching prospects. For instance, during his minor-league career Tim Wakefield posted a 4.83 ERA and 204-to-180 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 393 innings, which isn't the sort of performance that would normally portend a 15-year, 168-win (and counting) career in the majors. Grabbing LeBron James is fun, but grabbing LeBron James and then watching as essentially every star or quasi-star comes off the board long before it gets back around to you is slightly less fun. You can follow along with the snail-like draft on CBSSports.com and once the season begins you'll be able to see just how out-classed I am when going up against guys who actually write and talk about basketball for a living. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Twins Notes: More Targets, Fewer Homers, and Love LettersNote: Before I get to today's batch of Twins-related bullet points, a reminder that the floor remains open for the reader-submitted questions that I'll be answering here next week. If you missed it the first time around, yesterday's entry has details. YEAR AVG OBP SLG OPSFor their careers Floyd and Jenkins have hit similarly against righties, but Jenkins fared better recently. He's also younger, healthier, better defensively, and appears to have more left in the tank, but Floyd figures to be available at a reasonable price after playing this season for $3 million. Given that he didn't put up especially big numbers and totaled just 322 plate appearances as a 34-year-old, he might be willing to accept even less than that if it came along with the promise of regular playing time. Clark is 35 years old and his numbers in Arizona weren't great considering the hitter-friendly ballpark and low on-base percentages, but he made just $1 million in each of the past two seasons. He's a switch-hitter with a good shot at providing 20-plus homers and a .450 slugging percentage, which wouldn't look bad in the Twins' lineup at a similar price. Of course, until free agency officially begins and the list of available hitters is set, names like Jenkins, Floyd, and Clark and just food for thought. If Pineiro can shake off those ERAs to get $13 million based on a couple good months in an inferior league, it seems clear that Silva can do more than double that coming off a 202-inning, 4.19-ERA year. As I wrote last month, my guess is that Silva's next contract is likely to be worth closer to $40 million than $20 million. If that's the case, then hopefully the Twins aren't the team that gives it to him, because they definitely shouldn't be paying a premium for good-but-not-great starting pitching at this point.  Similarly, Jason Bay is far from anyone's idea of a wall-climbing outfielder, but the low left-field fence in Pittsburgh enabled him to rank just behind Hunter with six "robbed homers" since 2004. Meanwhile, with their low walls center field and left field at the Metrodome are good setups for erasing homers. In addition to Hunter wiping away eight homers over the past four seasons, occasional fill-in Lew Ford ranks fourth in all of baseball with five "robbed homers" over that same stretch.Interestingly, a friend of AG.com who knows new Reds manager Dusty Baker well and talks with him regularly recently suggested to me that Cincinnati could make a strong play for Hunter. That makes sense, both because the Reds could use a center fielder and because their general manager is former Terry Ryan assistant Wayne Krivsky. The Rangers also seem like an obvious fit given their need for center-field help and the fact that Hunter lives in Texas during the offseason.  Jones himself hit just five homers in 135 games this season, but according to Wittenmyer that's "an aberration" caused by "stress." He also notes that Jones "plays the game the way the Diamondbacks do," although it's unclear what that actually means. He suggests that "the biggest reason to keep Jones" is that "the next time he takes a play off will be the first" and he "runs out every grounder and pop-up." That seems like an odd No. 1 reason to keep someone on the team for $5 million.Of course, as he explains, not hustling is "far more damaging to a team ... than an honest, aggressive effort ... that falls short." Coincidentally, Jones was criticized for many honest, aggressive efforts that fell short. According to Wittenmyer that's no big deal as long as he runs hard down the first-base line in the two-thirds of his trips to the plate that end in outs. There's plenty more where that came from, as the entire piece reads like something put together by a public-relations firm that was hired by Jones. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Any Questions?I hosted a "live chat" on Rotoworld yesterday afternoon that lasted over two hours, which reminded me that every few months it's a good idea to open the floor for reader-submitted questions here. If you have something to ask me on any (somewhat reasonable) topic, please post it in the comments section or e-mail it to me. I'll go through the questions and then answer them here at some point next week. I'm certainly open to answering Twins-related questions, but don't feel that you're limited to that subject. In fact, the other times that we've done this in the past there were more than enough questions to split my responses into two entries, with one devoted to "baseball questions" and one devoted to "random questions." In other words, not everything has to be about Johan Santana and Nick Punto. If there's some pressing issue that you want my opinion on or some random thing that you've been wondering about me or this blog, fire away. Think of it as a low-tech version of my weekly Rotoworld chats. And ... go! Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
My 2007 Awards BallotEarlier this month I laid out my ballot for Twins MVP, going through the various metrics that I use to form an opinion on player value. Today I'll make my picks for MLB-wide awards using those same player-evaluation methods. Rather than repeat everything that I said then about the tools being used to come up with the following ballots, I'll simply link to the aforementioned entry from earlier this month and encourage anyone with questions to read it. The short version is that I came up a system that blends together Value Over Replacement Player, Win Probability Added, and Linear Weights for hitting and pitching, plus the defensive rankings from The Hardball Times, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Baseball Prospectus. The general idea is to collective and synthesize as much objective information as possible in a sort of wisdom-of-crowds approach, rather than relying upon a single statistic or gut feel. And away we go ... AL MVP PA AVG OBP SLG RBI RUNThere's a pretty good chance that a silly voter or two will put someone other than Alex Rodriguez atop their ballot, but it's really not even a question. He put together an incredibly good season offensively, came to the plate over 700 times while appearing in all but four games, and logged 1,330 innings at a relatively important defensive position. Rodriguez didn't have one of the greatest seasons of all time, but it was certainly among the best handful of non-Barry Bonds seasons from the past decade. Those who worship at the idol of batting average or have some sort of bias against Rodriguez may choose to favor Magglio Ordonez, but he was less outstanding offensively while playing a significantly less important defensive spot. In some years Ordonez would be a deserving MVP, but this isn't one of them. In fact, I narrowly prefer the fantastic season that Jorge Posada quietly turned in, because he was close enough to Ordonez offensively that 1,100 innings behind the plate pushes him ahead. Unlike the actual voters, who often drool over homers and RBIs without looking beyond raw numbers, I tend to think that an up-the-middle defender providing very good offense is typically more valuable than a no-defense slugger providing great offense. It's easy to see that Ordonez batted .363 and drove in 139 runs, but it's also important to realize that he was about 27 percent better than the average right fielder offensively, compared to Posada being about 35 percent better than the average catcher. Ordonez makes up for that by coming to the plate 89 more times, but the difference in defensive value is huge. Posada over Ordonez is a good example of my thought process when it comes to assessing player value, as is Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson over David Ortiz. It's also why the final four spots on my ballot are filled by up-the-middle defenders rather than guys like Carlos Pena or Vladimir Guerrero, although both of them certainly have a strong case for belonging in the top 10. NL MVP PA AVG OBP SLG RBI RUNThe NL lacks a no-brainer choice like Rodriguez, but David Wright gets my vote after finishing 10th on my ballot last season. This year Wright set new career-highs in nearly every important category while batting .325/.416/.546 with 30 homers, 73 total extra-base hits, 94 walks, 107 RBIs, and 113 runs in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. It was a tremendous all-around season from a 24-year-old who played all but two games, logged over 1,400 innings at third base, and went 34-for-39 stealing bases. I'm confident in Wright as my pick, but the middle-infield trio of Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Chase Utley aren't very far behind him. Based purely on hitting Ramirez was superior to Rollins, but Rollins came to the plate an additional 72 times and is a vastly superior defensive shortstop. Utley would likely have the best argument for topping Wright had he not missed 30 games with injuries, and even still there's a case to be made for his being the NL's second-best player. Matt Holliday has become a popular MVP pick, which is understandable given his huge raw numbers and the Rockies' success, but I just don't see it. His offense was less spectacular than it appears given that he played half his games at baseball's most hitter-friendly ballpark and batted .301/.374/.485 on the road. Holliday is a left fielder and wasn't clearly better offensively than first basemen Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, let alone several guys who manned more important defensive positions. PA AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RBI RUNHolliday has a slight edge in raw numbers, but the vast differences in home ballparks and defensive values push Wright clearly ahead. The same is true for Ramirez, Utley, Chipper Jones, and Miguel Cabrera, although perhaps to lesser extents. Placing Russell Martin ahead of Holliday is similar to picking Posada over Ordonez. Holliday was about 22 percent better than the average left fielder, but Martin was about 18 percent better than the average catcher and adds a ton of value defensively. AL CYA IP ERA SO BB HR OAVG OOPSJohan Santana had a far better season than most people seem to think and was among the league's best handful of pitchers, but as much as it pains me to admit it for the first time since 2003 he's not deserving of the AL Cy Young. C.C. Sabathia narrowly gets my vote over rotation-mate Fausto Carmona and John Lackey thanks in large part to his league-leading 241 innings. My guess is that Josh Beckett represents Sabathia's main competition in the actual voting, but that seems misguided: GS IP ERA xFIP AVG OBP SLGBeckett deserves credit for essentially staying even with Sabathia in ERA given that Jacobs Field was friendlier toward pitchers than Fenway Park this season. However, the difference between the two ballparks wasn't huge and Sabathia started four more games while tossing 40 additional innings. Given two pitchers who were basically equally as effective, I'll take the guy who worked 20 percent more innings every time. NL CYA IP ERA SO BB HR OAVG OOPSIt looks like a Rodriguez-style blowout, but the NL Cy Young race is closer than it appears. Jake Peavy was the best pitcher in baseball, but also benefited from MLB's most pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Meanwhile, reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb pitched his home games at one of MLB's most hitter-friendly ballparks. The huge difference in offensive environments wasn't quite enough for Webb to close the gap on Peavy, but it made me take a much closer look before picking Peavy. AL ROY PA AVG OBP SLG RBI RUNDelmon Young will wind up on actual ballots thanks to 93 RBIs, but he wasn't close to being the AL's best rookie while hitting a sub par .288/.316/.408 as a corner outfielder. That honor goes to Dustin Pedroia, who easily topped him in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while playing 1,140 innings of good up-the-middle defense. Teammates Brendan Harris and Akinori Iwamura were better rookie hitters than Young, as were Reggie Willits, Travis Buck, and others. Picking the league's best rookie pitcher is a little tougher. With Joakim Soria (69.0 IP, 2.48 ERA), Hideki Okajima (69.0 IP, 2.22 ERA), Rafael Perez (60.2 IP, 1.78 ERA), and the Twins' own Pet Neshek (70.1 IP, 2.94 ERA) the AL had four outstanding rookie relievers, but I'll give a slight nod to starters Jeremy Guthrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Brian Bannister. My preseason pick, Alex Gordon of the Royals, got off to a brutal start and could only recover enough to hit a Young-like .247/.314/.411 overall. NL ROY PA AVG OBP SLG RBI RUNWhile Pedroia had an excellent rookie season, he likely wouldn't have cracked my ballot had he been in the NL. On a rate basis no rookie can compare to Ryan Braun, who batted .324/.370/.634 for one of the greatest offensive displays ever by a rookie. However, Braun's defensive at third base was well below par and he batted under 500 times, while Troy Tulowitzki was fantastic at shortstop while hitting .291/.359/.479 in 682 plate appearances. Like Holliday, Tulowitzki's hitting got a huge boost from Coors Field. However, even accounting for that he still managed to be about 11 percent better than the average shortstop offensively and logged 1,375 innings of strong defense at shortstop. Braun was about 21 percent better than the average third baseman offensively, but that came along with what was at best shaky defense. It's very close, but I'll take the massive difference defensively and extra 190 plate appearances. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |