AaronGleeman.com

Friday, November 09, 2007

Link-O-Rama

If you think that the Twins potentially replacing Torii Hunter with Jason Tyner or Denard Span would be a major downgrade, consider the massive dropoff involved in going from former Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com Elisha Cuthbert to Mary Kate Olsen.

Some might say that the most embarrassing aspect of the following clip is the cheerleader being trampled by a high-school football team, but it's actually the post-clip banter between newscasters:

"We'll be right back."

Amazingly, the above video actually isn't the best small-town football clip of the week. And there wasn't even a band involved.

Here's an exhaustive "where are they now?" breakdown of various Seinfeld characters, including my personal favorite and one of the greatest comedic minds of all time, Kenny Bania.

With quite a few old-school guys stepping down recently and their replacements getting increasingly younger, being a general manager and hanging out with your counterparts sounds like a lot more fun than it did just a few years ago:

Boston General Manager Theo Epstein, who helped organize this year's GM meetings, had the hotel set aside a private lounge area for the general managers to gather daily and nightly to talk shop away from the prying eyes of reporters and fans. In the past, general managers did some of their business out in the open, tipping off the media to possible trades.

"It's worked out well," said Yankees GM Brian Cashman. On the first day of the meetings, Epstein had each general manager stand up and state what he was looking for and what he was willing to trade. "That's the first time I've ever done that," said GM Mark Shapiro.

"Hi everyone, my name is Bill Smith and I'm looking to acquire some hitters who aren't Nick Punto."

It sounds like the Pirates have hired themselves a stat-head general manager in Neal Huntington, which makes the fact that longtime Twins assistant Larry Corrigan resigned from his post of 20 years to join him in Pittsburgh all the more intriguing.

Two months ago Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan accused Joe Mauer of making up a knee injury, writing that he'd "spoken with trainers in other sports who have told me there is no such thing" as a "stress reaction." It turns out that even a minimal amount of research would have shown Souhan that those "trainers in other sports" were feeding him lies, but research isn't needed when you fill columns with baseless accusations, decade-old pop-culture references, and unfunny one-liners.

Why am I bringing this topic up again? For starters, because I never get sick of pointing out what a hack Souhan is, especially after one of his colleagues jokingly suggested to me earlier this week that I should "maybe let up on Souhan just a little bit." Beyond that, Timberwolves guard Randy Foye is currently sidelined indefinitely with, you guessed it, "a stress reaction in his left knee cap." Apparently Foye didn't hear the news that "there is no such thing."

Steve Nash is one of my favorite NBA players despite the fact that I don't think he deserved either of his MVP awards and for whatever reason I never tire of reading about him. I passed the time during my 45-minute flight back from Milwaukee last weekend by reading Chip Brown's excellent feature article about Nash in the New York Times' sports magazine, Play.

In addition to reading about Nash on the plane and dining at some great restaurants, I also saw American Gangster while in Milwaukee. It was definitely a good film, but it'd probably be difficult to avoid making a good movie given the people and subject matter involved. I'd call it "interesting" and "well done" rather than "great," although it did lead to solid post-movie conversation. Denzel Washington is getting Oscar buzz, but I felt like he essentially played the same character that he did in Training Day.

Grade: B-plus.

One nice part of the movie was spotting one of my favorite musicians, Anthony Hamilton, singing "Do You Feel Me" during a club scene:

On a semi-related note, RZA had a relatively big part as a police officer and was pretty good, but seeing his Wu-Tang Clan tattoo featured prominently sort of ruined the whole 1970s vibe.

The Star Tribune recently ran well-done articles about the off-field lives of two local first-round picks, with Kevin Seifert profiling Adrian Peterson and Jerry Zgoda profiling Corey Brewer. Brewer has struggled in limited playing time through three games, while Peterson is on pace to become just the sixth 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history and is on track to break Marshall Faulk's all-time record of 2,429 total yards from scrimmage.

It's a good thing that the NFL draft doesn't offer do-overs, because while "Purple Jesus" is an excellent nickname, something tells me that "Brown Jesus" wouldn't work quite as well.

Quotes like this one are part of why Jessica Alba is a former Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com:

I will never do a nude scene in a movie, not ever. I can act sexy and I can wear sexy clothes, but I can't go naked. I think I was always very uncomfortable about the way my body developed. I come from a Catholic family and it wasn't seen as good to flaunt yourself. I can handle being sexy with clothes on, but not with them off.

It's ironic for Alba to say that she's "very uncomfortable about the way my body developed," because her fame is due almost entirely to the fact that nearly everyone else has the opposite feeling.

I'd definitely be in favor of giving Joe Buck a time machine as long as he'd agree to stay at least 50 years away from me.

Mila Kunis would be a legitimate OFGoAG.com candidate if she wasn't married Macaulay Culkin and she's becoming increasingly difficult ignore even with him in the picture.

Here's a new blog to check out: Seamheads.com

Last but not least, this week's AG.com-approved music video is The Rolling Stones doing a live, black-and-white version of "Under My Thumb" from the mid-1960s:

Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Twins Notes: Surveys, Splits, and Bud Light

Last month I mentioned Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com as one of my favorite mainstream writers and he's been producing a ton of good hot-stove content while at the annual general manager meetings in Florida. He surveyed front-office personnel from various teams about "five key offseason questions" and three of them involved the Twins, which makes the article a must-read even if you're sick of hearing about Alex Rodriguez at this point.

Of 15 insiders surveyed by Crasnick, 14 responded that they expect Johan Santana to be the Twins' Opening Day starter. Crasnick suggests that "the folks at the players' union would love to see Santana go the distance and send starting pitchers' salaries into the stratosphere" after Carlos Zambrano settled for $91.5 million from the Cubs. He also notes that "if Barry Zito's seven-year, $126 million deal set the standard, it's hard to imagine what Santana might fetch once he's available to 29 other clubs."

Most observers think Smith might as well wait until July to assess his options, because teams still will be lining up to make a run at Santana if he's out there at the non-waiver trade deadline.

"Zito was riding a little off reputation, and there were some clubs that just weren't in on him," an AL executive said. "There isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't be in on Santana if it had the opportunity. There's a big difference."

Asked whether they'd rather have Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones in center field, 14 of 15 respondents chose Hunter. That initially struck me as surprising because in addition to being younger, Jones has a 5-to-2 edge in All-Star appearances and a 10-to-7 advantage in Gold Glove awards. Of course, Hunter is coming off what was arguably the best season of his career, while Jones is coming off what was arguably the worst of his. Still, there's little doubt that Jones was the superior hitter prior to 2007:

2006        G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Jones     156     .262     .363     .531     .894     41     129
Hunter    147     .278     .336     .490     .826     31      98
 
2005        G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Jones     160     .263     .347     .575     .922     51     128
Hunter     98     .269     .337     .452     .789     14      56
 
2004        G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Jones     154     .261     .345     .488     .833     29      91
Hunter    138     .271     .330     .475     .805     23      81
 
2003        G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Jones     156     .277     .338     .513     .851     36     116
Hunter    154     .250     .312     .451     .763     26     102
 
2002        G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     HR     RBI
Jones     154     .264     .366     .513     .879     35      94
Hunter    148     .289     .334     .524     .858     29      94

Hunter was far better than Jones in 2007, but in each of the previous five seasons Jones played more games, hit more homers, got on base at a better clip, and posted a higher OPS, often by wide margins. Jones' .263/.342/.497 career hitting line is clearly superior to Hunter's .271/.324/.469. It's human nature to place more value on what's happened recently and perhaps Jones' sub par showing in 2007 is a sign of things to come, but I'd bet on the long-term track records holding true going forward.

Lastly, Crasnick asked which free-agent starter was most desirable. That Carlos Silva tied for the most votes isn't surprising, because I've suggested several times over the past month that he'll end up with a much bigger contract than most people seem to think given the incredibly weak market for starting pitcher. However, that he tied with Kyle Lohse is somewhat surprising given that he's been dealt for a mid-level prospect twice in the past 18 months (including once by the Twins).

I'd expect Silva to end up getting a four- or five-year deal worth $40 or $50 million, in which case Terry Ryan's decision to hold onto him at the trading deadline will look like a major mistake. Unlike Hunter the Twins will receive no draft-pick compensation for losing Silva, so Ryan essentially chose keeping him for a final dozen starts over whatever prospects he could have fetched. Of course, perhaps Silva began looking good only after general managers saw the pathetic list of free-agent starters.

After posting a lengthy entry earlier this week breaking down 25 potential replacements for Hunter, there were several e-mails and comments asking why Jason Bay wasn't included. The answer is that Bay isn't a viable option in center field defensively, playing just 274 career innings there, including zero innings over the past two seasons. With that said, the Pirates are rumored to be shopping Bay and he's someone who the Twins would be smart to target as a left fielder.

YEAR       G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     IsoP     IsoD      BIP
2004     120     .282     .358     .550     .908     .268     .076     .345
2005     162     .306     .402     .559     .961     .253     .096     .350
2006     159     .286     .386     .532     .928     .246     .100     .330
2007     145     .247     .327     .418     .745     .171     .080     .292

Bay had a tremendously disappointing 2007 season, but much like with Jones I'd trust his outstanding track record. He's a 29-year-old career .281/.375/.515 hitter with good power and plate discipline who figures to see a rise in batting average if his ball-in-play numbers return to previous norms. Bay has been a better hitter than Justin Morneau during their respective careers, his right-handed bat would fit nicely in a lefty-heavy lineup, and he's signed for a reasonable $13.25 million over the next two years.

While looking up some other numbers I stumbled upon Joe Mauer's career home-road splits:

           AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     BIP
Home      .294     .374     .410     .784    .316
Road      .332     .414     .509     .923    .353

Mauer's career is 1,756 plate appearances long, so it's still a relatively small sample, but the numbers are extreme. He's been about 16 more effective away from the Metrodome, which includes 53 percent more Isolated Power. Mauer has also hit 38 points higher on the road, which is due largely to a .353 batting average on balls in play that's 12 percent higher than at home. I'm not sure what to make of his splits, but I am sure that Dan Barreiro would use them as evidence that Mauer should be traded.

Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune suggested in one of his columns last week that the Twins should trade Santana to the Yankees for Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and Jose Tabata, which is exactly the sort of far-fetched notion that makes me shy away from specific trade suggestions in this space. You'll find no bigger fan of Santana than me, but that's vastly overstating the value of a player who's eligible for free agency in 11 months.

Why would the Yankees part with their 22-year-old starting center fielder, arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, and two other top-50 prospects for a pitcher who has 33 starts left before hitting the open market and will then perhaps allow them to pay him $25 million per season beginning in 2009? I'm not necessarily in favor of trading Santana at this point, but if Bill Smith is getting offers that are even remotely close to the deal that Reusse suggested, he'd be a fool to pass on them.

Along those same lines, Reusse also suggested that the Twins trade Joe Nathan to the Yankees "and get bullet-throwing Joba Chamberlain." Much like Reusse's proposed Santana package that would be a no-brainer move for the Twins, but at some point you have to consider why in the world the Yankees would ever consider that trade. Nathan is an elite closer, but he's also 32 years old and becomes a free agent after one more season.

After posting a 2.00 ERA and 169-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112.1 innings during his pro debut, including a 0.38 ERA in New York, Chamberlain also looks capable of being a dominant late-inning reliever. The difference is that he's 21 years old, will be making the minimum for several seasons, and is under the Yankees' control through 2012. Age, salary, and service time are all things that warrant a lot more attention from message-board posters, radio-show callers, and newspaper columnists.

Back when Andy MacPhail was the Twins' general manager, his three right-hand men were Ryan, Smith, and Larry Corrigan. Earlier this week Corrigan resigned after 20 years with the organization and quickly found a job with the Pirates. I don't know the official story on Corrigan's decision--although I've heard some interesting off-the-record rumblings--but it seems obvious that either working under Smith or working without Ryan didn't agree with him.

Landon Evanson over at Bugs and Cranks recently posted interviews with Nathan and Boof Bonser. Aside from "I'd love to finish my career in Minnesota" Nathan didn't say much of note in his interview, but Bonser's interview contained a few interesting tidbits:

Evanson: This past season, what area of your game improved the most and what will you be working on for next spring?

Bonser: Actually, the mental game was the big part for me. Having a full year in and learning from our veteran guys, Santana and Silva. As far as things I'm working on, there are a couple things; the thing they don't like was how heavy I was. I was a little bit heavier than I was last year, so that's one of the biggest keys that they want me to work on so that's what I'm going to try to do.

[...]

Evanson: Beer of choice?

Bonser: Who says I drink beer? I like drinkin' Bud Light. That's my beer of choice.

I'd imagine that there's some sort of correlation.

Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Searching for Hunter's Replacement

With Torii Hunter's chances of returning to the Twins sitting somewhere between slim and none at this point, it's time to start examining the team's options for replacing him in center field. In-house choices are basically limited to Jason Tyner or Denard Span, which seemingly guarantees that new general manager Bill Smith will be going outside of the organization to fill Hunter's shoes. A strong defender with a .271/.324/.469 career hitting line is very difficult to replace, but this is the year to do it.

This offseason's free-agent market is filled with big-name center fielders and there are a number of other quality center fielders rumored to be available via trades. While free agents like Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Aaron Rowand figure to be well out of the Twins' price range, once trades are thrown into the mix the center-field market essentially becomes a big game of musical chairs and there should be opportunities to acquire a quality player at a reasonable cost in one form or another.

The question is whether the Twins can identify those opportunities and pursue the right players. In an effort to set the table for that process, I've put together a list of 25 potential free-agent and trade targets. I'm not in favor of all 25 and the cost to acquire them--in terms of money or players--varies greatly, but these are all guys who should be available to some degree. In other words, when Smith sat down with the rest of the front office to discuss the post-Hunter options, many of these names likely came up.

ANDRUW JONES, 31-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A nine-time Gold Glover and five-time All-Star with 368 homers and a .263/.342/.497 hitting line through the age of 30, he's been a superior player to Hunter during their respective careers.

CONS: Coming off the worst offensive season of his career (.222/.311/.413) and no longer the defender that he once was, yet will no doubt get a massive long-term contract.

AARON ROWAND, 30-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: An underrated defender who owns a better career hitting line than Hunter at .286/.343/.462 in seven MLB seasons, including .309/.374/.515 with 27 homers and 45 doubles in 161 games this year.

CONS: Batted just .270/.329/.407 in 2005 and .262/.321/.425 in 2006, and figures to be significantly out of the Twins' price range.

MIKE CAMERON, 35-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: An all-time great defender who batted .255/.341/.456 over the past two seasons while playing in baseball's most extreme pitcher's ballpark and figures to be far less expensive than Jones or Rowand.

CONS: Has either lost a step or is likely to soon lose a step defensively at the age of 35 and has been suspended for the first 25 games of next season after testing positive for a banned stimulant.

KOSUKE FUKODOME, 31-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A superstar in Japan who hit .305/.397/.543 in nine seasons, he won the Central League MVP in 2006 by hitting .351/.438/.653 and followed it up by hitting .294/.443/.520 in 2007.

CONS: Missed 50 games with an elbow injury in 2007, might be stretched defensively in center field, and figures to be out of the Twins' price range.

ROCCO BALDELLI, 26-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A toolsy former No. 6 overall pick with a .282/.324/.443 hitting line in four big-league seasons, he's a strong defender with good speed who's set to make $2.25 million in 2008 and has reasonable team options through 2011.

CONS: Can't stay healthy, missing 197 games over the past two seasons because of leg and shoulder injuries, and would likely require parting with at least one top-notch pitching prospect.

DAVID DEJESUS, 28-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A good defender and .282/.358/.415 hitter in 506 career games, he's signed through 2011 for a total of $16.8 million over four seasons.

CONS: Like Baldelli, under-30 center fielders who're assets on offense and defense tend to cost quite a bit in trade, so the Twins would likely have to part with at least one top-level pitching prospect.

KENNY LOFTON, 41-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: Showing no signs of slowing down while playing on a never-ending string of one-year deals and has posted an above average on-base percentage for six straight seasons, including batting .296/.367/.414 between Texas and Cleveland in 2007.

CONS: Noodle-armed and no longer a great defender at the age of 41, he should be platooned at this stage of his career and can't be counted on for more than one year.

MATT KEMP, 23-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Long one of the best outfield prospects in baseball, he batted .312/.344/.496 in his first 477 big-league plate appearances after hitting .311/.359/.519 in 405 minor-league games.

CONS: Has been mentioned in various Johan Santana rumors, which might be the only way that the Twins could get the Dodgers to part with him.

LASTINGS MILLEDGE, 23-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Relatively similar to Kemp, but somewhat stuck behind Carlos Beltran and has been linked to countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons while batting .306/.380/.480 in 307 minor-league games and holding his own (.257/.326/.414) with the Mets.

CONS: Whether it's Kemp or Milledge, young, pre-arbitration center fielders with upside on offense and defense simply don't come cheap.

COCO CRISP, 28-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A switch-hitter who's batted .280/.329/.409 in six MLB seasons while improving defensively with more experience in center field, he's relatively young and somewhat reasonably priced at $4.75 million in 2008 and $5.75 million in 2009.

CONS: The combination of his contract and likely cost via trade figures to dwarf his modest production (.266/.324/.383) in two seasons with the Red Sox.

JACQUE JONES, 33-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Would have been the Twins' center fielder from 1999-2005 if not for Hunter's presence and remains a solid defender with a good bat against right-handers who's set to make $5 million in 2008.

CONS: Coming off the worst season of his career (.285/.335/.400) and if his first stint in Minnesota was any indication there's little chance that he'd be platooned.

JOHNNY DAMON, 34-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Has posted an above average on-base percentage in six straight seasons and even in a down year hit .270/.351/.396, with the Yankees rumored to be shopping him.

CONS: May not be an asset defensively at this point, spending most of the season split between left field and designated hitter while Melky Cabrera started in center field, and is set to make $13 million in both 2008 and 2009.

REGGIE WILLITS, 26-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Posted a .397 on-base percentage in four minor-league seasons before batting .293/.391/.344 with 27 steals and an MLB-leading 4.44 pitches per plate appearance as a 26-year-old rookie.

CONS: A strong defender who's young, cheap, and fast, Willits seems like a prototypical Angels player and might be tough to pry away.

MILTON BRADLEY, 30-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A switch-hitter who batted .288/.372/.484 over the past three seasons, including .306/.402/.545 between Oakland and San Diego in 2007, and figures to be available for a one-year commitment.

CONS: Missed 254 games over the past three seasons, hasn't played center field regularly since 2005, and has a personality that makes him one of the game's biggest headaches.

COREY PATTERSON, 28-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A strong defender and the youngest of the position's free agents, he's hit .273/.309/.415 with 82 steals over the past two seasons.

CONS: A former top prospect, he's turned tremendous raw talent into a horrible .298 career on-base percentage and equally hideous 711-to-153 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

JEREMY REED, 27-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A former top prospect who the Mariners have given up on after 856 plate appearances, he's a strong defender with a .295/.358/.445 hitting line in 269 games at Triple-A and figures to come cheaply.

CONS: Batted just .253/.314/.366 in those 856 big-league plate appearances, including .241/.301/.358 since hitting .397 during his 18-game MLB debut in 2004.

DARIN ERSTAD, 34-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A career .284/.339/.411 hitter in a dozen major-league seasons who at one time was arguably the most underrated defender in baseball, he played this season on a one-year, $750,000 deal.

CONS: Missed 197 games with injuries over the past two years, has been an asset offensively in one season since 2000, and would make my head explode from the local media's constant mentions of his punting career at Nebraska, supposed "gamer" status, and North Dakota upbringing.

JAY PAYTON, 35-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A right-handed hitting, poor man's version of Jacque Jones down to his $5 million salary for 2008, he's a career .281/.325/.432 hitter who could split time with Tyner.

CONS: Batted just .256/.292/.376 as a 34-year-old, hasn't had an above average on-base percentage since 2002, and is probably stretched defensively in center field.

BRAD WILKERSON, 31-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A career .250/.354/.451 hitter in seven MLB seasons who figures to be relatively cheap and won't cost a draft pick to sign.

CONS: He's an oft-injured 31-year-old who hasn't played center field regularly since 2005 and batted just .228/.312/.445 over the past two seasons with the Rangers.

DAVE ROBERTS, 36-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A career .268/.342/.370 hitter in nine big-league seasons who remains a strong defender with excellent speed in his mid-30s.

CONS: Batted just .260/.331/.364 while missing one-third of the season as a 35-year-old and is set to make $6.5 million in each of the next two seasons.

RAJAI DAVIS, 27-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: One of baseball's fastest players and part of the reason why Roberts might be available, he's hit .305/.373/.407 with 251 steals in 625 career minor-league games and .270/.353/.363 with 23 steals in 236 big-league plate appearances.

CONS: Acquired by the Giants at this season's trading deadline and one of their few relatively young position players, he might be overpriced via trade.

FRED LEWIS, 27-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Stuck behind both Roberts and Davis on the Giants' depth chart, he's a .281/.375/.480 hitter in 168 Triple-A games and has batted .298/.379/.408 in 191 big-league plate appearances.

CONS: Might be stretched defensively in center field and the Giants may have the former second-round pick in their long-term plans as a corner outfielder, so he might not come cheaply.

MARK KOTSAY, 32-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: A career .282/.337/.415 hitter in 11 MLB seasons played in mostly pitcher-friendly ballparks, he was once among the game's most underrated defenders and the A's would likely be willing to eat some of his $8 million salary for 2008.

CONS: Now a shell of his former self both offensively and defensively, he missed all but 56 games this season following back surgery and hit just .214/.279/.296.

BRIAN BARTON, 26-YEAR-OLD TRADE TARGET

PROS: Hit .326/.442/.506, .323/.412/.511, and .305/.402/.420 in three minor-league seasons, but stuck behind Grady Sizemore and has yet to make his big-league debut despite turning 26 years old soon.

CONS: Barton is a perfect low-cost, diamond-in-the-rough target, but might be stretched defensively and the Indians are unlikely to deal within their division.

JEFF DAVANON, 34-YEAR-OLD FREE AGENT

PROS: A switch-hitter with a .302/.405/.468 hitting line in 625 career minor-league games, he's batted .259/.349/.400 in 1,505 big-league plate appearances spread over eight seasons.

CONS: Even minor-league veterans with strong track records who're deserving of a chance in the majors get old, and at 34 he might be stretched as a starter both offensively and defensively.

Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com

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OFGoAG.com Timeline:
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