Friend of AG.com and Baseball Think Factory editor-in-chief Dan Szymborski began publishing his team-by-team ZiPS projections for 2008 just hours after the regular season concluded and posted the Twins' numbers last week. For those of you who're unfamiliar with ZiPS, it's Szymborski's own system and holds its own against various other sets of projections on an annual basis. As an added bonus, the information is available for free and gets posted publicly much earlier than most other projections.

Plus, Szymborski can be convinced to add projections for players who he'd skipped initially, which is what happened when I bugged him for numbers on guys like Jeff Manship, Ryan Mullins, and Jay Sawatski. The end result is an accurate, early projection that includes nearly every player in the organization who could conceivably see big-league playing time in 2008, which is the sort of thing that can hold my mid-November interest until what figures to be a busy offseason gets going.

I looked at the good news earlier this week, going through the pitching projections for next season, so today I'll cover the bad news that is the team's lack of impact bats. ZiPS projects the 2008 Twins to be similar to the 2007 version, with a strong pitching staff and a lineup that struggles mightily to score runs. In fact, with several young pitchers expected to emerge and Torii Hunter leaving as a free agent, ZiPS' outlook for the Twins in 2008 is even more extreme.

Led by Joe Nathan, Johan Santana, and Francisco Liriano, ZiPS projects 10 different Twins pitchers to be better than the MLB average in 2008, but ignoring Hunter only four Twins hitters are projected to be above average in 2008. Toss in the fact that none of those four hitters clears the "average" bar by anything close to the same distance that Nathan, Santana, and Liriano do and it's easy to see why things are looking extremely ugly offensively.

Of course, comparing all hitters to the same overall MLB average is misleading. For instance, a first baseman can be an above-average hitter compared to all of MLB while being a below-average hitter at the position. Meanwhile, a catcher can be well below the MLB average while being well above average for the position. With that in mind, I've grouped Twins hitters into catchers, infielders, and outfielders while including the MLB average for each position to make putting numbers into context easier.

CATCHERS             AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Joe Mauer           .315     .404     .458     .296
Mike Redmond        .299     .342     .362     .244
AVERAGE C           .256     .317     .395     .241
Jose Morales        .257     .311     .347     .227
Chris Heintz        .261     .303     .337     .221

In terms of good news within the bad news, this is it. Joe Mauer projects to be about 23 percent above average offensively for a catcher, while Mike Redmond also checks in at slightly above par. Redmond would dip below average if given a higher percentage of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which is why he's in a perfect spot backing up a left-handed hitter like Mauer who's capable of being an asset at designated hitter on days when he's not catching.

ZiPS sees Jose Morales and Chris Heintz posting ugly numbers, but even those projections would make them somewhat serviceable backups offensively given that catcher is by far the worst-hitting position (which is something that I've discussed in this space many times in relation to Mauer's value). With Mauer and Redmond in the majors and Morales waiting at Triple-A, the Twins have perhaps the best catching setup of any team in baseball and the position is arguably the team's biggest strength.

INFIELDERS           AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Justin Morneau      .283     .355     .527     .292
AVERAGE 1B          .275     .354     .462     .275
AVERAGE 3B          .271     .339     .440     .263
AVERAGE 2B          .273     .333     .406     .251
Ken Harvey          .274     .328     .406     .249
Jason Bartlett      .275     .341     .367     .246
AVERAGE SS          .271     .326     .399     .246
Brock Peterson      .253     .318     .404     .244
Chris Basak         .242     .317     .393     .241
Erik Lis            .249     .294     .399     .232
Garrett Jones       .235     .289     .401     .230
Brian Buscher       .251     .309     .361     .229
Matt Tolbert        .255     .306     .363     .228
Matt Macri          .231     .302     .359     .226
Tommy Watkins       .246     .310     .344     .226
Alexi Casilla       .260     .311     .319     .220
Nick Punto          .235     .311     .306     .216
Alejandro Machado   .245     .307     .304     .214
Trevor Plouffe      .240     .290     .328     .213
Matt Moses          .214     .263     .305     .195

Mauer and Justin Morneau are essentially projected to be equal offensively in 2008, but that would give Morneau just a six-percent edge over the average first baseman compared to Mauer being 23 percent above average for a catcher. Of course, six percent above average for a first baseman is still plenty good and the infield also has Jason Bartlett, who's projected to be almost exactly average offensively for a shortstop. Unfortunately, it gets pretty ugly after that.

No second baseman or third baseman in the entire organization is projected to be average offensively for their position. In fact, only minor-league veteran Chris Basak--a potential utility man who was claimed off waivers near the end of the season--even falls into the category of "slightly below average." For 2008 at least, ZiPS doesn't think much of Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert, Matt Macri, Tommy Watkins, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, or Alejandro Machado, and for the most part it's tough to disagree.

Of that group, Buscher has the best chance to significantly out-hit his 2008 projection, because ZiPS views his out-of-nowhere breakout season along with the rest of his sub par minor-league career. Projection systems are supposed to work that way--taking multi-year track records into account rather than focusing on one season--but there's a chance that Buscher has legitimately turned a corner in his development.

Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2007, Buscher had the best offensive season of anyone in the Twins' minor-league system, posting a context-adjusted hitting line of .316/.388/.540 between Double-A and Triple-A. That performance was way out of line with the rest of his pro career, so either it was a fluke or he's a better long-term bet than ZiPS projects. Time will obviously tell (assuming that the Twins actually give him a chance to play), but I'd take the over on his ZiPS projection.

In the past I've tried to dispel the notion that Garrett Jones is a legitimate prospect and his horrendous ZiPS projection certainly agrees with me, yet he'll no doubt see far more playing time than he deserves in 2008. ZiPS projects Brock Peterson to be about six percent better than Jones in 2008--the same edge that Morneau has over the average first baseman--despite the fact that Peterson is three years younger and has yet to play above Double-A.

Peterson's .290/.383/.505 context-adjusted hitting line as a 23-year-old at Double-A ranked second to only Buscher among the organization's minor-league hitters with at least 350 plate appearances in 2007. As you can see by the above ZiPS projections the Twins are severely lacking in good-hitting first basemen and designated hitters, so Peterson is someone to watch as a long-term DH option (or potential replacement for Morneau, I suppose). On an unrelated note: Matt Moses is horrible.

OUTFIELDERS          AVG      OBP      SLG      GPA
Torii Hunter        .276     .339     .462     .268
AVERAGE LF          .274     .345     .448     .267
AVERAGE RF          .273     .342     .450     .266
Michael Cuddyer     .269     .352     .427     .265
Jason Kubel         .268     .332     .436     .258
AVERAGE CF          .268     .332     .418     .254
Rashad Eldridge     .249     .315     .381     .237
Jason Tyner         .280     .330     .325     .230
Craig Monroe        .236     .286     .402     .229
Darnell McDonald    .256     .310     .357     .229
Rondell White       .250     .291     .370     .223
Denard Span         .257     .305     .326     .219

I've lumped all outfielders together, but grouping them into "corner outfielders" and "center fielders" might be more accurate given the gap between the positions' MLB-wide production. All of which is what makes Hunter such a valuable player. He's not only above average offensively for a center fielder, he'd also be above average for a left fielder or right fielder. Like Morneau compared to first basemen, ZiPS projects Hunter to be about six percent better than the average center fielder offensively in 2008.

That's going to be nearly impossible to replace unless the Twins swing a major trade, but the good news is that ZiPS sees Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel essentially being average offensively for corner outfielders despite relatively conservative projections. Cuddyer is projected for a .426 slugging percentage that's slightly below his .433 mark in 2007, but he's slugged .450 for his career. Kubel's projection suffers because ZiPS doesn't know why he missed all of 2005 and then struggled in 2006.

In other words, ZiPS just assumes that Kubel didn't play in 2005 and played horribly in 2006 because he wasn't very good in those years, but in reality a severe knee injury was to blame. That's obviously not a good thing and the missed development time is damaging, but Kubel finally appears to be healthy and batted .303/.379/.511 after the All-Star break. Given that he hit .273/.335/.450 as a 25-year-old who was healthy for the first time since 2004, I'd bet on Kubel topping his .268/.332/.436 projection.

Like the infield with Morneau and Bartlett, once you get past Cuddyer and Kubel in the outfield it gets ugly. ZiPS doesn't see the newly acquired Craig Monroe bouncing back much from a dismal season, which is something that I warned about while discussing him at great length yesterday in this space. ZiPS sees Jason Tyner essentially being Jason Tyner and rightfully doesn't think that Denard Span is anywhere close to a legitimate option to replace Hunter in center field.

As things stand right now, the big picture for the Twins offensively isn't very good. They figure to get significantly above-average production from catcher, above average production from first base, and at least average production from shortstop, left field, and right field. Normally that would be the makings of a solid lineup, but unfortunately they currently have no one who's projected to be anywhere near average for the gaping holes at second base, third base, center field, and designated hitter.

Once upon a time, Craig Monroe was exactly the type of player that the Twins should be targeting. A minor-league veteran who didn't get his first extended chance in the majors until the age of 26, Monroe was claimed off waivers by the Tigers in 2002 and showed that his strong track record was no fluke by providing them with productive, low-cost seasons from 2003-2006. He's an example of the overlooked talent that's often available if you trust a player's minor-league performance.

Unfortunately, rather than go after a low-cost, mid-20s minor leaguer of their own who fits the Monroe mold, the Twins traded for the original version yesterday afternoon, sending a conditional player to be named later to the Cubs for his rights. Five years ago Monroe was in his prime and cost little, making him a good value. Now he's on the wrong side of 30 with production that has declined sharply over the past two seasons and is set to make around $5 million in 2008 via arbitration.

With that said, even after acquiring him the Twins aren't obligated to actually take Monroe to arbitration and hopefully the reasoning behind the trade was to simply give the Twins an exclusive negotiating window with him. The Cubs were going to non-tender him and the Twins could still do the same next month, so Monroe might be willing to accept a pay cut from last season's $4.8 million salary given that he's unlikely to get much interest on the open market.

In other words, by conditionally trading what figures to be at most a marginal prospect to the Cubs the Twins gave themselves a chance to talk privately with Monroe about accepting a lesser salary for 2008. If he agrees, then they pick up a useful role player for a reasonable price and lose the prospect. If he declines, then they can simply non-tender him next month at no monetary cost and be done with him while not giving the Cubs anything.

Indications are that the Twins have little interest in retaining Monroe for $5 million, which is good news considering that would be a mistake. Bill Smith no doubt wants to acquire a right-handed bat capable of adding power to a punchless, primarily left-handed lineup. Monroe fits that bill, with an average of 22 homers per 550 plate appearances during his career, but focusing on homers while overlooking the rest of his all-around game is the same error that they made with Tony Batista two offseasons ago.

To be clear, trading for and signing Monroe isn't akin to signing Batista, although it's interesting to note that his .256/.303/.446 career hitting line is nearly identical to Batista's .251/.299/.453 career mark. Monroe is a better player than Batista was when he signed with the Twins in 2006, but they're not totally dissimilar in that they both have low on-base percentages and mediocre defense that wipe away much of the value that comes from their power. Here are Monroe's season-by-season numbers:

YEAR       G      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     IsoP     IsoD
2003     128     .240     .287     .449     .736     .209     .047
2004     128     .293     .337     .488     .825     .195     .044
2005     157     .277     .322     .446     .768     .169     .045
2006     147     .255     .301     .482     .783     .227     .046
2007     122     .219     .268     .370     .638     .151     .049

Major-league left fielders as a whole batted .277/.347/.453 in 2007, which means that Monroe has been above average for his position offensively exactly once, back in 2004. In the three years since then he's hit just .254/.300/.439, including a career-worst .219/.268/.370 this season, which looks an awful lot like the ugly .246/.276/.365 hitting line that Rondell White posted for the Twins in 2006. Quite simply, Monroe is overmatched as an everyday player.

As a part-time player who's limited to starting against left-handers, Monroe has plenty of value to a team. For his career he's hit .273/.319/.495 versus southpaws, including .271/.309/.496 against them in 2007. On the other hand, he's hit just .249/.296/.425 against right-handers, including .194/.247/.308 against them in 2007. However, the Twins aren't (or at least shouldn't be) in a position to pay $5 million for someone who plays 2-3 times per week.

Even if Monroe bounces back to his pre-2007 level of performance--when he hit .263/.310/.461 prior to a career-worst season--the best-case scenario is essentially getting slightly below-average offensive production from a mediocre defender in left field. That's not worth $5 million to begin with for a team with a $75 million payroll and Monroe's secondary numbers suggest that the odds may be against that bounce back taking place.

YEAR      SO%     BB%
2003     19.4     5.5
2004     16.4     5.8
2005     15.3     5.8
2006     21.5     5.8
2007     25.1     6.1

Monroe has been swinging at everything dating back to his minor-league days and his walk rate has essentially remained unchanged from year to year. He draws a non-intentional walk about six percent of the time, which is basically the same walk rate that the free-swinging Torii Hunter posted during his 11 seasons in Minnesota. Monroe once managed a high enough batting average to somewhat make up for the lack of plate discipline, but that hasn't been the case over the past two years.

From 2001-2005, Monroe batted .266 while striking out in 17 percent of his plate appearances. Since then he's batted just .240 while striking out in 23 percent of his plate appearances. Increasing your strikeouts by 35 percent is a good way to go about lowering your batting average and his recent lack of contact is also perhaps a sign that Monroe isn't aging especially well upon entering his thirties. In other words, his decline looks real.

As a .270 hitter, Monroe's power is enough to make him a relatively valuable player despite little plate discipline or defensive value. As a .240 hitter, he eats up far too many outs for a corner outfielder who's mediocre defensively and can't make up for it by simply smacking 20 balls over the fence. As a fourth outfielder asked to hit against left-handers, Monroe is a good role player. As a starting outfielder asked to hit against everyone, Monroe is overmatched.

All of which is why Twins fans should hope that Smith made the trade with an eye toward getting Monroe to accept a pay cut for 2008. If the Twins can get him to agree to that--for example, let's say a one-year deal worth $2.5 million plus some incentives--then he's a solid bench bat capable of giving the lineup some much-needed right-handed pop against lefties. If instead the Twins intend to keep Monroe around at full price, then there are two options and neither of them are very good.

The first option is that the Twins plan to use Monroe as a platoon corner outfielder who'll play primarily against lefties, in which case they'll be utilizing him optimally while paying $5 million to fill a part-time role that can be filled rather easily for far less. The second option is that the Twins plan to use Monroe as an everyday player, in which case they'll be trotting out a starting left fielder who's well below par offensively about two-thirds of the time.

Whether it's significantly overpaying for a part-time player or sticking a sub par hitter in the lineup against right-handers, neither option is especially appealing. For now though, there's reason to believe that Smith wants nothing to do with Monroe at $5 million. "It gives us an opportunity to meet with his agent and talk about it by ourselves," Smith said of the trade. "I think that's a plus for us." Monroe can also be a "plus" for the Twins, but not at $5 million or as an everyday player.

Friend of AG.com and Baseball Think Factory editor-in-chief Dan Szymborski began publishing his team-by-team ZiPS projections for 2008 just hours after the regular season concluded and posted the Twins' numbers last week. For those of you who're unfamiliar with ZiPS, it's Szymborski's own system and holds its own against various other sets of projections on an annual basis. As an added bonus, the information is available for free and gets posted publicly much earlier than most other projections.

Plus, Szymborski can be convinced to add projections for players who he'd skipped initially, which is what happened when I bugged him for numbers on guys like Brock Peterson, Tommy Watkins, and Matt Tolbert. The end result is an accurate, early projection that includes nearly every player in the organization who could conceivably see big-league playing time in 2008, which is the sort of thing that can hold my mid-November interest until what figures to be a busy offseason gets going.

ZiPS projects the 2008 Twins to be similar to the 2007 version, with a strong pitching staff and a lineup that struggles mightily to score runs. In fact, with several young pitchers expected to emerge and Torii Hunter leaving as a free agent, ZiPS' outlook for the Twins in 2008 is even more extreme. I'll look at the good news today, going through the pitching projections for next season, and later this week I'll cover the bad news that is the team's lack of impact bats.

STARTERS             ERA        RELIEVERS            ERA
Johan Santana       3.21        Joe Nathan          2.19
Francisco Liriano   3.42        Dennys Reyes        3.45
Kevin Slowey        3.93        Matt Guerrier       3.49
Matt Garza          4.21        Pat Neshek          3.62
LEAGUE AVERAGE      4.39        Juan Rincon         3.68
Scott Baker         4.50        Jesse Crain         3.80
Jeff Manship        4.64        LEAGUE AVERAGE      4.04
Carlos Silva        4.83        Yohan Pino          4.46
Nick Blackburn      4.86        Eduardo Morlan      5.01
Anthony Swarzak     4.90        Bobby Korecky       5.08
Boof Bonser         4.98        Jay Sawatski        5.19
Oswaldo Sosa        5.01        Carmen Cali         5.38
Brian Duensing      5.23        Julio DePaula       5.44
Glen Perkins        5.42        Ricky Barrett       5.82
Ryan Mullins        5.77        Jose Mijares        6.78

In short, the Twins' pitching projects to be fantastic next season. Between Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan few teams in baseball can even come close to their elite-level talent and with a total of 10 pitchers projected to be better than average in 2008 their overall depth is also tough to compete with. Right off the bat, you'll notice that Carlos Silva projects to be the team's seventh-best starter in 2008, which is why the Twins would be foolish to pay a premium for him on the open market.

According to ZiPS, a Silva-less 2008 rotation of Santana, Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Matt Garza, and Scott Baker would feature four above-average starters and one slightly below-average starter. ZiPS projects that fivesome to include a pair of No. 1 starters, a No. 2 starter, a No. 3 starter, and a No. 4 starter, which would easily be among the best rotations in baseball. And that still leaves Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, Jeff Manship, and Anthony Swarzak, who each project to be about as effective as Silva.

Projected ERAs of 4.60 for Manship and 4.90 for Swarzak don't look especially impressive in 2008, but it's important to note that they have 86.1 innings above Single-A between them. That ZiPS sees a 22-year-old and a 23-year-old as being essentially MLB-ready right now bodes extremely well for their futures given that neither pitcher figures to see significant action in Minnesota before 2009. On the other hand, ZiPS projecting a 5.42 ERA for a 25-year-old Glen Perkins is discouraging.

Most of the rumors and speculation regarding the Twins' offseason plans center around trading young pitchers for young hitters, which is something that I've been in favor of for years. ZiPS sees Perkins, Bonser, and Blackburn as the young starters to shop, although obviously the potential return on that trio may not be overwhelming. If teams require more for an impact bat, then ZiPS sees Baker as more expendable than Garza and Garza as more expendable as Slowey (although I'd disagree on the latter).

Over in the bullpen, ZiPS sees the Twins as having six above-average relievers for 2008, led by closer Joe Nathan and his amazing 2.16 projected ERA. Nathan has had a sub-2.00 ERA in three of his four seasons with the Twins, but given all the regressing to the mean involved in projections a 2.16 ERA is as good as it gets. I'm surprised to see Dennys Reyes projected to have the bullpen's second-best ERA, but perhaps I shouldn't be given his 2.02 ERA in 80 career innings with the Twins.

I'm also surprised to see Matt Guerrier project slightly better than Pat Neshek and shocked to see that ZiPS thinks Juan Rincon is still a good setup man. ZiPS looks beyond Rincon's 5.13 ERA in 2007 to see ERAs of 2.91, 2.45, and 2.63 during the previous three seasons, but Rincon's decline has been steady and significant. Given his loss of velocity/movement and the drop in his strikeout rate, I'd peg Rincon as the reliever who the Twins should be actively shopping. Some Rincon numbers:

YEAR     xFIP      SO%     K/BB
2004     3.15     32.4     3.31
2005     3.32     26.3     2.80
2006     3.73     20.6     2.71
2007     4.67     18.0     1.75

Like Manship and Swarzak, ZiPS projecting Eduardo Morlan for a 5.01 ERA as a 22-year-old is actually a good thing, because he's pitched all of four career innings above Single-A. Last offseason I ranked Morlan as the team's No. 8 prospect for 2007 and he projects as a dominant late-inning reliever. Bobby Korecky, Jay Sawatski, and Julio DePaula don't project nearly as well for 2008 or the future, but they'd be middle-relief options for teams that don't have an entire bullpen full of sub-4.00 ERA projections.

Assuming that Santana isn't traded and both Liriano and Jesse Crain are healthy enough following season-ending arm surgeries to have an impact in 2008, the Twins could part with as many as 4-5 of the pitchers who're currently in the team's 2008 plans to some degree and still have a deep pitching staff with plenty of available reinforcements for both the rotation and bullpen. For instance, here's what the staff could look like if they dealt all four of Perkins, Bonser, Rincon, and Blackburn for lineup help:

SP1  Johan Santana       3.21        CL   Joe Nathan          2.19
SP2  Francisco Liriano   3.42        SET  Pat Neshek          3.62
SP3  Kevin Slowey        3.93        SET  Matt Guerrier       3.49
SP4  Matt Garza          4.21        RH   Jesse Crain         3.80
SP5  Scott Baker         4.50        LH   Dennys Reyes        3.45

That's only 10 pitchers and they'll go with at least 11, but filling out low-leverage bullpen spots will be easy given the many options to pick from. That 10-man core would be among the best in baseball and trading Perkins, Bonser, Rincon, and Blackburn would certainly allow the Twins to address some of their offensive problems. If that foursome isn't drawing tons of interest in trades, the Twins could keep Perkins or Bonser while parting with Baker, or perhaps even swap Garza or Slowey for a big bat.

More important than the specific scenarios and names is that the Twins have an incredible collection of young, MLB-ready pitching depth with yet another wave of promising arms set to arrive in 2009 or 2010. Young pitching has always been at a premium in baseball, but that's perhaps the case now more than ever given the incredibly weak crop of free-agent starters that pitching-starved teams have to pick from this winter.

The Twins hurt themselves in the past by refusing to part with some of their abundance of young pitching, but now appear committed to the idea that swapping pitching for hitting is needed. Their timing is actually quite good, because they should have the ability to get good value in this market whether it's shopping 2007 disappointments like Bonser and Rincon, parting with lesser long-term options like Perkins and Blackburn, or pulling the trigger on a blockbuster deal for Slowey or Garza.