|
|
Friday, February 08, 2008
Link-O-RamaAll of which is especially interesting to me because Schur/Tremendous is an AG.com fan who joined me on NBCSports.com's "Fantasy Fix" show last year. Afterward, he wrote on FJM that getting to "chat with legendary Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman ... was as close to an honor as a baseball blogger can get." Beyond the ego boost from someone behind one of my favorite shows, I'm now closer than ever to creepily informing Jenna Fischer of her long-time Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com candidacy. "Well, congratulations." It was every bit as surreal as the previous sentence suggests, and she sadly displayed poor grammar and had absolutely no clue who Monk is. On the other hand, the Sports Illustrated swimsuit model still managed to be absolutely fascinating (at least to me, Russo, and Dukes) thanks to a sheer white t-shirt and ridiculously done-up hair. I'm jealous that NBCSports.com sent Gregg to the Super Bowl, if only because there weren't many people who looked like this hanging around the winter meetings.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2008: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26Previous Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2008: 31-35, 36-40 30. Zach Ward | Starter | DOB: 1/84 | Throws: Right | Trade: RedsZach Ward provided an example of the uselessness of minor-league win-loss records while at high Single-A in 2007, going 5-17 despite a 4.08 ERA and 107-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130 innings. He threw strikes while missing plenty of bats, kept the ball on the ground in allowing just five homers, and had an ERA right around league average, yet led the Florida State League in losses thanks to shoddy defense behind him and little run support from an offense that combined to bat .241/.316/.346. Of course, Ward's horrible record at high Single-A has nothing to do with his long-term potential, which remains good. Originally taken by the Reds in the third round of the 2005 draft, Ward was traded to the Twins for Kyle Lohse in mid-2006. Despite beginning his pro career as a 22-year-old with college experience, the Twins had Ward spend full seasons at both low Single-A and high Single-A, which means that he'll turn 24 years old before taking the mound at Double-A for the first time. That diminishes his performance somewhat, but as a ground-ball machine with good control who has a 3.55 ERA and 225 strikeouts in 274 total pro innings he's still plenty promising. Ward projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, although there are some concerns about his durability and he spent the beginning of last season working in relief. If a permanent move to the bullpen is needed, Ward's 3-to-1 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and above-average stuff could make him a late-inning setup man. 29. Erik Lis | Left Field | DOB: 3/84 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2005-9Taken by the Twins in the ninth round of the 2005 draft after hitting .342 with 25 homers, 49 doubles, and 147 RBIs during his 165-game college career at the University of Evansville, Erik Lis continued to put up huge numbers during his first two pro seasons. He led the low Single-A Midwest League in batting average (.326), on-base percentage (.402), and slugging percentage (.547) in 2006, producing a monstrous .350/.420/.650 hitting line after adjusting for the extremely pitcher-friendly environment. Of course, a 22-year-old with three seasons of college experience should destroy low Single-A, so Lis' big year was less impressive than it looks on paper. In ranking him as the Twins' 15th-best prospect last year, I wrote: "The big test will come this year, when Lis either holds his own at high Single-A and makes it to Double-A during the second half of his age-23 season or becomes just another guy who beat up on young pitching to begin his career." Or somewhere in between, it turns out. He didn't make it to Double-A, but did hit .274/.334/.470 with 18 homers, 56 total extra-base hits, and a 109-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 132 games at high Single-A. Deteriorating strike-zone control and plate discipline are concerns and he was again old for the level, but Lis led the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in RBIs while ranking among the top 10 in homers, doubles, and slugging percentage. His bat is for real, but the Twins refuse to push him and Lis will be 24 when he debuts at Double-A. 28. Jay Rainville | Starter | DOB: 10/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2004-1Armed with a handful of first-round picks in the 2004 draft thanks to losing Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins to free agency, the Twins used the final one on Jay Rainville, a big right-hander from a Rhode Island high school. He immediately thrived, posting a 1.83 ERA and 38-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 34.1 innings in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League after signing, and then went 12-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 112-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 142.1 innings between two levels of Single-A in 2005. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury halted Rainville's rapid climb up the organizational ladder and surgery wiped away his entire 2006 season. Rainville returned to the mound in 2007 and his first season back was a tremendous success, as he posted a 3.29 ERA and 110-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio at high Single-A while coincidentally matching his exact pre-injury workload from 2005 with 142.1 innings. Still just 22 years old despite losing a full season to injury, Rainville figures to begin 2008 at Double-A. Shoulder surgery still clouds Rainville's future somewhat even after a fantastic comeback season, but the fact that he was able to immediately regain his outstanding control is an excellent sign. Mediocre strikeout rates and extreme fly-ball tendencies limit Rainville's long-term potential somewhat, but he has better raw stuff than your typical strike-throwing machine, has yet to struggle at any level, and projects as a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter who could be ready as soon as 2009. 27. David Winfree | First Base | DOB: 8/85 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2003-13Taken out of a Virginia high school by the Twins in the 13th round of the 2003 draft, David Winfree was the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2005 after hitting .294/.329/.452 while leading the low Single-A Midwest League in hits and RBIs. He raised eyebrows that spring by walking away from baseball and questioning his long-term commitment to the sport following shoulder problems, but returned at midseason to hit .276/.328/.490 with 13 homers in 67 games at high Single-A. Winfree moved up to Double-A last season and played 123 games, but saw his performance sag in all areas. Power potential has long been his biggest asset, but he managed just a dozen homers and 44 total extra-base hits for a .159 Isolated Power that's modest even after adjusting for the pitcher-friendly environment. He also continued to show almost zero plate discipline and struggled to control the strike zone, posting a dismal 106-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio while watching his batting average dip to .267. Considered sub par defensively at third base, Winfree spent the bulk of his time at New Britain as a first baseman and figures to remain near the bottom of the defensive spectrum long term. Because of that his lack of improvement offensively is especially concerning, although somewhat expected given that the Twins have pushed him through the system so aggressively that he played most of last season as a 21-year-old at Double-A. The potential remains, but Winfree's stock has dropped. 26. Nick Blackburn | Starter | DOB: 2/82 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2001-29Taken by the Rays in the 34th round out of an Oklahoma high school in 2000, Nick Blackburn chose junior college over signing and was drafted by the Twins 28 rounds after Joe Mauer in 2001. He was inconsistent and had modest success through three pro seasons, failing to make it past Single-A while posting a 4.42 ERA that was due to trouble missing bats and an inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Beginning in 2005 something clicked for Blackburn and he's been a different pitcher since. Blackburn didn't miss many bats in the low minors and his strikeouts fell even further at Double-A and Triple-A. That's normally a very bad thing, but in Blackburn's case the drop in strikeouts also came with far fewer homers and improved control. Few pitchers are able to succeed in the majors after striking out only 4-5 batters per nine innings in the high minors, but the ones who do are strike-throwing machines who keep the ball on the ground and Blackburn has turned himself into just that. He's not nearly as good as his 44-inning scoreless streak and 2.36 ERA overall last season suggest. Beyond that, Baseball America's surprising decision to rank him as the Twins' No. 1 prospect prior to the Johan Santana trade seems absolutely absurd given that he's 26 years old and managed just 75 strikeouts in 148.2 innings last season. With that said, Blackburn is likely MLB-ready and should soon be able to carve out a niche as either a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2008: 35, 34, 33, 32, 31Note: Prospects 31-40 in this series were actually posted already last month, but the Twins acquiring four good prospects in exchange for Johan Santana last week caused a shift in the rankings and made the original version out of date. The least-confusing option for proceeding seems to be restarting the whole series, with the four new prospects included and the four lowest-ranked prospects from the original version (Jose Morales, Steven Tolleson, Brandon Roberts, Denard Span) bumped off the list. Previous Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2008: 36-40 35. Dustin Martin | Center Field | DOB: 4/84 | Bats: Left | Trade: MetsDustin Martin led the Southland Conference with a .389 batting average during his senior season at Sam Houston State and was selected by the Mets in the 26th round of the 2006 draft. As a little-known college senior with no leverage, he agreed to a $1,000 bonus and reported to low Single-A, where he batted .315/.399/.454 in 72 games. Martin moved to high Single-A in 2007, batting .287/.358/.412 in 93 games before being traded to the Twins along with non-prospect Drew Butera for Luis Castillo in July. Martin remained in the Florida State League after the deal, hitting .294/.366/.437 in 32 games at Fort Myers to finish the year with an overall line of .290/.361/.426 in a very pitcher-friendly environment, which included eight homers, 44 total extra-base hits, and a 118-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 games. While he's shown decent plate discipline with solid gap power and good speed, Martin strikes out an awful lot for a hitter who's managed just 10 homers in 845 career plate appearances. Martin has spent the bulk of his pro career in center field and is considered an above-average defender there, but likely profiles more as a fourth outfielder long term. Terry Ryan's decision to unload Castillo at midseason was criticized heavily at the time and looks even more questionable given that the Twins would have ended up with a supplemental first-round pick if they'd simply let him walk as a free agent, but Martin's an intriguing player who gives them a chance to at least get some value out of the deal. 34. Michael Tarsi | Starter | DOB: 8/86 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2007-12Michael Tarsi went 12-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 122-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 143 innings during three years at the University of Connecticut before the Twins selected him in the 12th round of June's draft. Tarsi signed quickly and the 6-foot-8 left-hander predictably fared very well against inexperienced competition during his pro debut at rookie-level Elizabethton, serving up zero homers in 52.2 innings while posting a 2.22 ERA and 59-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Tarsi doesn't throw especially hard, even for a southpaw, but uses his height and fastball movement to keep the ball on the ground. He induced three ground balls for every fly ball while at Elizabethton, which helps explain how he was able to avoid giving up even a single homer in 238 plate appearances. Of course, dominating rookie-ball hitters ultimately means little for a pitcher who had three seasons of experience playing in the Big East conference. However, Tarsi is pretty refined as far as 21-year-old, 6-foot-8 lefties go and has a chance to move quickly through the Twins' system. His control has been relatively good dating back to college despite his size and his secondary pitches are considered solid enough for him to potentially develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Tarsi likely doesn't have the raw stuff to become much more than that, but ground-ball machines who throw strikes are always worth watching. 33. David Bromberg | Starter | DOB: 9/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2005-32Taken by the Twins out of a California high school with a 32nd-round pick in 2005, David Bromberg was a "draft-and-follow" selection who signed nearly a year later after spending one season pitching for a local junior college. Assigned to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League for his pro debut in 2006, Bromberg posted a sub par 31-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.2 innings, but proved difficult to hit while serving up just two homers and allowing a .230 opponent's batting average. Bromberg moved up one rung on the organizational ladder to the rookie-level Appalachian League in 2007 and was named the short-season league's Pitcher of the Year. Still a teenager, Bromberg led the league in strikeouts and wins while holding opponents to a .211 batting average, posting a 2.78 ERA and 81-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58.1 innings. Primarily a fastball-curveball pitcher, he works with low-90s velocity coming from a sturdy 6-foot-5 frame and induces plenty of ground balls. This year will be a big test for Bromberg, because he'll be facing full-season competition for the first time after posting a 2.72 ERA, 112-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .219 opponent's batting average over 109 innings of rookie-ball. His control definitely needs work and he's a long way from the majors, but Bromberg was dominant at times last season after an uneven pro debut and possesses far more long-term upside than most of the pitchers who're surrounding him in this section of the rankings. 32. Kyle Waldrop | Starter | DOB: 10/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2004-1Drafted out of a Tennessee high school with the compensatory first-round pick that the Twins received for losing LaTroy Hawkins via free agency in 2004, Kyle Waldrop agreed to a $1 million bonus and got off to a fast start. Splitting his debut season between two levels of rookie-ball, he combined to post a 2.15 ERA and 55-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 63 innings. Unfortunately, Waldrop has struggled to miss bats as he's advanced through the Twins' system and has become increasingly easy to hit. Waldrop had 7.9 strikeouts for every walk in rookie-ball and 4.3 strikeouts per walk at low Single-A, but that number dropped to 2.0 at high Single-A and 1.7 at Double-A (where he was knocked around to the tune of a .306 batting average in 11 starts last season). When the Twins drafted Waldrop he was very advanced for a high-school pitcher and thrived against similarly inexperienced competition in the low minors because he threw strikes and had decent raw stuff. However, the closer he's gotten to the majors the more difficult it's been for Waldrop to succeed on that mediocre stuff, which is evident by his sub par strikeout rates and the deterioration of his once-great control. With that said, it's important to note that he's only 22 years old despite logging over 500 pro innings already and has induced two ground balls for every fly ball over the past two seasons, which shows that he's still capable of having a solid big-league career as a fourth or fifth starter. 31. Danny Rams | Catcher | DOB: 12/88 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2007-2Baseball America rated Danny Rams as the best power hitter in the 2007 high-school draft class and the Twins used their second-round pick and a $375,000 bonus to talk him out of attending Arizona State University. Drafted as a catcher, Rams worked there for most of his debut season and his arm is considered excellent for the position. However, as a 6-foot-2, 230-pound teenager who's struggled with his weight in the past, there are questions about his ability to remain behind the plate long term. There are also some questions about his bat after Rams hit just .258/.311/.361 with zero homers and a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his 27-game debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Even as an 18-year-old Rams looked like a big-league cleanup hitter and the pre-draft hype surrounding his power potential was tremendous. Despite his homerless debut, Rams' .103 Isolated Power actually showed average pop for the low-scoring GCL, suggesting that the long balls should arrive soon. However, the rest of his game requires plenty of refinement. Rams is slow now and likely only going to get slower, his strike-zone control was horrible during his debut, and he simply may not have enough athleticism and mobility to be long for catching. As a big, rocket-armed catcher Rams' power could carry him to stardom and makes him a very intriguing prospect, but a position switch would limit him to first base or designated hitter and significantly reduce his upside. He's a boom-or-bust prospect.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2008: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36Note: Prospects 31-40 in this series were actually posted already last month, but the Twins acquiring four good prospects in exchange for Johan Santana last week caused a shift in the rankings and made the original version out of date. The least-confusing option for proceeding seems to be restarting the whole series, with the four new prospects included and the four lowest-ranked prospects from the original version (Jose Morales, Steven Tolleson, Brandon Roberts, Denard Span) bumped off the list. 40. Matt Tolbert | Second Base | DOB: 5/82 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2004-16A four-year starter at the University of Mississippi, the Twins selected Matt Tolbert in the 16th round of the 2004 draft despite a modest .288/.365/.394 career hitting line. He signed quickly and made his pro debut at rookie-level Elizabethton, batting .308/.376/.500 in 33 games, and then skipped low Single-A while making the jump to high Single-A during his first full season. Tolbert struggled at Fort Myers, batting just .266/.326/.365 in 111 games, but was promoted to Double-A in 2006. Tolbert again struggled and was demoted back to Fort Myers, but hit .303/.360/.458 in 40 games there to earn a trip back up to New Britain. He hit just .255/.339/.360 in 72 total games at Double-A, but rather than ask a 25-year-old to take another crack at the level the Twins pushed Tolbert up to Triple-A last season. He hit .340 in April and .370 in May before eventually crashing back down to earth, hitting just .267/.323/.396 in the second half to finish the season at .293/.353/.427 in 121 games overall. Despite an amazing start that got fans who didn't know better way too excited, Tolbert's "breakout" season actually blends in with the rest of his career. He's hit just .280/.345/.405 in 377 minor-league games and turns 26 years old in May, which adds up to a low ceiling. However, as a switch-hitter who controls the strike zone reasonably well, has solid speed, and can handle second base or third base defensively, Tolbert could carve out a decent major-league career as a utility man. 39. Brian Dinkelman | Second Base | DOB: 11/83 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2006-8The NAIA's all-time leader in hits, doubles, runs scored, and total bases after his four-year career at McKendree College, Brian Dinkelman won the 2006 NAIA Player of the Year by batting .462 during his senior season. A college shortstop, Dinkelman moved to second base after being drafted by the Twins in the eighth round and debuted at rookie-level Elizabethton, batting .298/.338/.420 with four homers, 15 total extra-base hits, and a 29-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 46 games. Dinkelman moved up to low Single-A last season and thrived, batting .283/.373/.488 with 10 steals in 67 games. His production dropped off after a midseason promotion to high Single-A, but he held his own by hitting .255/.361/.389 with eight steals in 64 games. His overall raw numbers aren't especially eye-popping, but a young middle infielder smacking 46 extra-base hits and drawing 66 walks between a pair of extremely low-scoring environments is impressive. In fact, if you adjust Dinkelman's 2007 performance to account for the pitcher-friendly leagues that he played in, his hitting line goes from .269/.367/.437 to .280/.378/.493. A 23-year-old second baseman with a context-adjusted Isolated Power of .213 is worth keeping an eye on, although Dinkelman saw about one-fourth of his action in left field last season and may not remain at second base long term. As an outfielder he's a marginal player, but as an infielder his bat and speed could have an impact. 38. Brian Buscher | Third Base | DOB: 4/81 | Bats: Left | Rule 5: GiantsAfter two years at a Florida junior college Brian Buscher transferred to the University of South Carolina, where he batted .393/.453/.644 as a senior and became the Giants' third-round pick in the 2003 draft. Buscher received a $215,000 bonus and began his career at low Single-A, but hit just .278/.310/.320 with zero homers in 54 games. Over the next two seasons he experienced modest success at high Single-A, batting .288/.359/.413 in 143 games, but hit just .265/.336/.378 in 257 games at Double-A. A 25-year-old with a .359 career slugging percentage, Buscher fell out of the Giants' plans and was taken by the Twins in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft in December of 2006. Expected to be little more than roster filler, Buscher instead had the best season of any hitter in the Twins' system, hitting .309/.385/.493 with 14 homers, 41 total extra-base hits, and a 41-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 103 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He then hit .244/.323/.329 in 33 games with the Twins. Buscher has three major strikes against him in that he's old for a prospect, has a poor track record that makes his breakout year look like a fluke, and appeared to be an awful defensive third baseman in his time with the Twins. On the other hand, his already strong hitting line from last season jumps to .316/.388/.540 after adjusting for the pitcher-friendly environments he called home and included vastly improved strike-zone control, which is at least enough to think that he may have turned the corner. 37. Matt Macri | Third Base | DOB: 5/82 | Bats: Right | Trade: RockiesOriginally taken out of an Iowa high school by the Twins in the 17th round of the 2001 draft, Matt Macri opted for college instead of signing and played three seasons at Notre Dame, batting .367/.465/.667 in his final year. Selected by the Rockies in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, Macri hit well between two levels of Single-A to begin his minor-league career before batting just .232/.293/.370 with a 66-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 84 games at Double-A in 2006. Asked to repeat Double-A last season, Macri bounced back by hitting .298/.349/.502 with 11 homers, 34 total extra-base hits, and a 58-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 79 games. Traded to the Twins in August for Ramon Ortiz, Macri moved up to Triple-A and finished the season by hitting .286/.322/.554 with four homers in 17 games. Macri now carries a .282/.350/.467 hitting line in 296 career games, with solid numbers everywhere except for the season at Double-A in 2006. He's played all over the infield defensively and is considered a solid glove at third base, so it's easy to see Macri emerging with a major-league job at some point. On the other hand, he turns 26 years old in May, doesn't have much plate discipline, and has struck out in 21 percent of his career trips to the plate. He might be stretched as an everyday player, but being productive platooning against left-handed pitching is doable and the Twins' system lacks good bats, let alone infielders with power. 36. Daniel Berlind | Starter | DOB: 12/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2007-7Selected out of high school by the Cubs in the 44th round of the 2006 draft, Daniel Berlind opted for college instead of signing, enrolling at California Polytechnic State University before transferring to a junior college that was also in California. The decisions paid off for Berlind, who was taken by the Twins in the seventh round of June's draft and received an $80,000 signing bonus before making his pro debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. A 6-foot-7 right-hander who works primarily with a low-90s fastball and slider combination, Berlind held GCL hitters to a measly .186 batting average while posting a 1.93 ERA and 52-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 56 innings. While his batting average against and ERA were undeniably fantastic, Berlind's strikeout and walk rates are less impressive than they initially appear given the GCL's pitcher-friendly environment and the fact that he was facing slightly less experienced competition. A dozen starting pitchers in the 16-team GCL had better strikeout-to-walk ratios than Berlind and even his minuscule 1.93 ERA ranked just third in the league. Of course, all of that is picking nits somewhat and Berlind certainly had a very strong debut that plants him firmly on the prospect map just six months after being a seventh-round pick. If he buys into the Twins' organization-wide emphasis on throwing strikes, Berlind has a chance to rank much higher on this list next year.
|
E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com www.myspace.com/aarongleeman Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Fat-O-Meter First Time: 92.5 pounds This Time: Still fat Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Stick and Ball Guy Seth Stohs Nick Nelson Will Young Over The Baggy Howard Sinker Twinkie Town John Bonnes Phil Miller Jim Mandelaro Twins Territory Mike Decaire Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Dead Spin The Big Lead AOL Fanhouse The Hardball Times Baseball Prospectus Baseball Think Factory Baseball America U.S.S. Mariner Baseball Toaster Baseball Musings Minor League Ball Al's Ramblings 6-4-2 Bill Simmons Fire Joe Morgan Shyster Ball Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Gregg Rosenthal MLB Trade Rumors Sports By Brooks MMA Mania Five Ounces of Pain Fan Graphs Non-Sports Stuff Gorilla Mask WWTDD? Buzz Machine Alan Sepinwall Egotastic A Socialite's Life Popoholic Hollywood Rag Splash News Online Hollywood Tuna IDLYITW The Superficial TMZ.com Perez Hilton Steve Silver Tony Pierce Wicked Chops Poker Shelley Rants Away Poker Road Film Drunk Guinness and Poker Tao of Poker Site Sponsors Chicago Cubs Merchandise Purchase MLB baseball tickets, New York Yankees tickets, Boston Red Sox tickets, Chicago Cubs tickets and San Francisco Giants tickets from Neco.com. ![]() Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert |