As you may have noticed, the look of this site has changed slightly over the past few days. The basic layout and color scheme remain the same, but the sidebar has shifted from the left side to the right side while expanding in size and the entire site is now centered (depending on your monitor settings). I'm not much for change, generally speaking, and my initial reaction to anything I'm fond of changing at all is typically negative, so I understand if many of you feel the same way about the new look.

With that said, my primary goal with the layout here has always been to keep the site looking simple and clean, and I think that remains true. The site hasn't changed much visually for several years, so it seemed like a good time for a fresh coat of paint. Plus, the expanded sidebar seems less intrusive on the right side than it would have on the left side. Of course, my "design" skills rival Nick Punto's "hitting" skills, so I'm certainly open to suggestions for ways to improve the site's look.

Feel free to voice your opinion about the changes, although this setup will probably be staying for at least a little while. For nearly six years this site was designed for monitors that were 800 pixels wide and apparently that ceased being the standard size a couple years ago without me getting the memo, so the new layout attempts to make a little better use of the available space. With that incredibly boring bit of "news" out of the way, let's get to the links ...

Francisco Liriano made his first minor-league rehab start yesterday at high Single-A, turning in the following pitching line:

 IP     H     R     ER     SO     BB     HR
5.1     6     4      4      8      2      0

Four runs on six hits over 5.1 innings against Single-A hitters is obviously far from good news, but the eight strikeouts are nice and Liriano kept the ball in the ballpark while showing decent control. Kevin Slowey suffering a biceps strain yesterday afternoon potentially opened the door for the Twins to push Liriano's timetable up, but it sounds like they've smartly decided against that.

Marko Jaric may not be the world's smartest backup point guard, but it was still only a matter of time before he did the math.

The following video is only two minutes long, but it's a jam-packed 120 seconds. First there's Jeff Brantley stressing the importance of giving away an out down two runs in the ninth inning, as if bunting in that spot is anything but a horrible bit of strategy. Then there's Brantley loudly proclaiming that Edwin Encarnacion is "not a clutch hitter" seconds after an on-screen graphic shows his .360 batting average with runners in scoring position. And then there's Encarnacion making Brantley look very, very silly:


I'm normally not much of a Thom Brennaman fan, but he at least does his best to combat the incredibly aggressive stream of stupidity that's flowing from his broadcast partner.

This seems like a dream job, but I'm told that the benefits package is lacking.

After sitting through an angry, anti-blogger diatribe by recently bought-out New York Times columnist Murray Chass, Jon Weisman penned a fantastic piece attempting to make sense of the whole thing.

Christina Aguilera's neighbors are reportedly upset because she likes to go skinny dipping in her pool at night while "making sexy noises" with her husband. Seriously. My favorite quote: "There are a lot of old people who live around here and they don't like noise after the dinner hour." Meanwhile, I've lived in my "new" place for over a year now and couldn't pick my neighbors out of a police lineup.

If you thought it was strange living in a world where Forbes names Kevin McHale the best general manager in sports and the Wall Street Journal names Ron Gardenhire the best manager in baseball, try wrapping your head around the idea of the Associated Press Sports Editors naming Bill Plaschke the best newspaper sports columnist in the country ... for the third time in four years.

On a related note:

U.S. newspapers suffered their worst drop in print advertising sales since industry record-keeping began 57 years ago, hammered by the housing-market slump and competition from the Internet.

Last month it was reported that the country's top 20 newspapers have collectively lost about 10 percent of their overall print readership during the past four years, which works out to around 1.4 million copies in daily circulation, so it only makes sense that advertising revenue would follow.

Every once in a while it's nice to remember the good old days.

This week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show features me talking with Tiffany Simons and Gregg Rosenthal about early season injuries and players who won jobs during spring training:


Near the end of the video, you can hear me fawn over Carlos Gomez's Opening Night performance.

In the lineup Wednesday despite being hit on the elbow by a Juan Rincon fastball the night before, Torii Hunter took the opportunity to inform a new group of media members that he's a tough guy:

I'm the ironman. I'm old-school. I play no matter what, unless I can't move.

When he wasn't busy publicly criticizing teammates for not playing through injuries, the self-proclaimed "ironman" who supposedly "plays no matter what" missed an average of 20 games per season from 2001-2007, including years with 64, 24, 15, 14, and 14 missed games. Just saying.

Jim Mandelaro of the Rochester Democract and Chronicle wrote an article examining what figures to be a strong Triple-A team that will likely send plenty of players to Minnesota throughout the season.

Earlier this week Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune provided an update on Corey Koskie's ongoing health problems.

Carlos Silva spent four seasons with the Twins, making a total 124 starts, and never once threw as many as 115 pitches in any of them. Then he departed this winter as a free agent, signing with Seattle, and threw 116 pitches in his very first start with the Mariners.

With baseball starting up this week, I'm back to writing my "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Jason Mraz doing a live, acoustic version of "Geek in the Pink" at some tiny venue in Paris:

Jason Kubel split the 2004 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .351 with 22 homers, 42 doubles, 16 steals, and a 59-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 127 total games. That performance earned Kubel a September call-up to Minnesota, where he batted .300/.358/.433 in 23 games with the Twins. Just 22 years old, Kubel had dominated two levels of the minors and experienced immediate success in the majors, establishing himself as one of baseball's premier hitting prospects.

Following the breakout season Kubel headed to the Arizona Fall League and his career took a horrible turn. While chasing after a fly ball in the outfield, Kubel collided with AFL teammate Ryan Raburn and suffered extensive ligament damage in his left knee, including a torn ACL and meniscus. Some reports described the injury as Kubel's knee "exploding" and then-general manager Terry Ryan made it clear immediately that Kubel would be facing a long road back:

It's a bad deal. It's going to be a long ordeal. It's a shame. This is a serious injury. I feel bad for Jason. He had a tremendous year for us. Jason was going to be battling for playing time in right field next year

Instead of "battling for playing time in right field next year" Kubel missed the entire 2005 season while recovering from the career-threatening injury. He returned in 2006 and hit .291/.324/.485 in the first half to seemingly replant himself firmly on the prospect map, but his surgically repaired knee let him down in the second half. Clearly hobbled, Kubel often struggled just to make it down the first-base line and hit just .163 after the All-Star break, ending the season with an ugly .241/.279/.386 hitting line overall.

When Kubel batted just .237/.287/.301 through his first 100 trips to the plate last season, questions naturally began to swirl about whether the knee injury had completely sapped his potential. Fortunately, something finally clicked for Kubel in mid-May and he hit .283/.349/.492 over his final 100 games. His breakout was hidden by the awful start and many fans had already given up on him by that point, but from May 10 through the end of the season Kubel was arguably the Twins' best hitter:

                     PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
Jason Kubel         365     .283     .349     .492     .841
Justin Morneau      523     .272     .338     .485     .823
Torii Hunter        524     .274     .324     .477     .801
Michael Cuddyer     502     .275     .363     .435     .798
Joe Mauer           348     .273     .359     .408     .767

For nearly five months and a span of 129 total games, Kubel led the Twins in both slugging percentage and OPS. And he got stronger as the year went on, producing a .303/.379/.511 hitting line in the second half that included batting .364 in August and .325 in September. Even with the slow start included, Kubel's .273/.335/.450 overall hitting line for the season was very solid for a 25-year-old and made him one of the team's best hitters:

                     PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
Torii Hunter        650     .287     .334     .505     .839
Justin Morneau      668     .271     .343     .492     .834
Joe Mauer           471     .293     .382     .426     .808
Michael Cuddyer     623     .276     .356     .433     .790
Jason Kubel         466     .273     .335     .450     .785

For the entire season he was among the team's five top hitters, basically matching Michael Cuddyer's overall production. For the final five months of the season Kubel was arguably the team's best hitter, topping Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Joe Mauer in both slugging percentage and OPS. And for the final two-plus months of the season he was inarguably the team's best hitter and one of the best hitters in the entire league.

It would have been tough to finish last year any better than Kubel did and it seemed clear that he was finally healthy again after the severe knee injury essentially wiped away two seasons. Cuddyer posted a .790 OPS as a 28-year-old and parlayed it into a $24 million contract extension this offseason. Kubel posted a .785 OPS as a 25-year-old, emerging as the Twins' top hitter for a huge chunk of the season, and apparently somehow managed to lose his job during the winter.

From the moment that the Twins traded for Craig Monroe and signed him to a one-year contract worth $3.82 million, Ron Gardenhire began dropping hints that Kubel's playing time was in serious jeopardy. At first it was assumed that the right-handed hitting Monroe would simply platoon with the left-handed hitting Kubel, working his way into the lineup against southpaws. However, once spring training arrived it became clear that Gardenhire had much bigger plans for Monroe.

A career .256/.303/.446 hitter, Monroe hit just .219/.268/.370 last year--including a ghastly .194 against right-handers--yet Gardenhire acted as if the Twins had acquired a big-time weapon and treated him accordingly. He repeatedly stressed that Kubel and Monroe weren't in a straight platoon, suggesting that he'd choose which player started at designated hitter on a game-by-game basis. Asked what would influence his decision, Gardenhire said: "I think we'll probably look at success against pitchers."

Looking at "success against pitchers" is essentially how every hitter is evaluated all the time, but what Gardenhire meant specifically was how Kubel and Monroe have fared against each day's starter. After quoting Gardenhire's plan, the Minneapolis Star Tribune was quick to point out that Kubel was 1-for-5 during his career against Angels Opening Night starter Jered Weaver, while Monroe was 0-for-3. The first problem with those numbers is that they're completely and utterly meaningless.

Even with a large sample of at-bats it's unlikely that a hitter's past numbers against a pitcher will have significant predictive ability and when the "sample" is a handful of trips to the plate spread over multiple seasons it's beyond useless. Of course, Gardenhire didn't actually use those numbers. Instead, he merely offered them up as a preemptive strike and potential excuse, knowing full well that he'd be giving Monroe the Opening Night nod over Kubel. Either that or Monroe's 0-for-3 was really impressive.

What's especially frustrating about Gardenhire's decision to start Monroe against Weaver on Opening Night--and his likely decision to give Monroe regular playing time against right-handed pitchers at Kubel's expense all season--is that looking at some truly meaningful numbers shows how clearly wrong the move was. For one thing, Weaver is a right-handed pitcher who has been significantly worse against left-handed hitters during his career:

                 PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
vs RHB          608     .228     .276     .349     .625
vs LHB          577     .275     .329     .441     .770

Platooning is a viable strategy because nearly all pitchers are worse against opposite-handed hitters, but Weaver's splits are even more extreme than usual. He's dominated righties, holding them to a .228/.276/.349 hitting line that looks eerily similar to the .219/.268/.370 that Monroe hit overall last year. Meanwhile, lefties have had plenty of success against Weaver, batting .275/.329/.441 to nearly match the .273/.338/.450 overall mark that Kubel posted last season.

During his career lefties have been about 23 percent more effective than righties against Weaver, with a 145-point gap in OPS. To put that in some context, the difference in OPS between Morneau (.835) and Jason Tyner (.686) last season was 149 points. Weaver's extreme split alone would make starting Monroe over Kubel a bad decision, but that's just the beginning. Next, take a look at how Monroe and Kubel fared against right-handed pitching last season:

                AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
Kubel          .280     .336     .474     .810
Monroe         .194     .247     .308     .555

Kubel was 46 percent more effective against right-handers than Monroe last season, with a massive 255-point gap in OPS. For comparison, the difference in OPS between Hunter (.839) and Nick Punto (.562) last season was 277 points. Of course, Gardenhire is surely ignoring Monroe's struggles last year and remembering the success that he had in the past with the Tigers. With that in mind, here's how Monroe and Kubel fared against right-handed pitching over their past three seasons:

                AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
Kubel          .269     .321     .443     .764
Monroe         .244     .289     .425     .714

Kubel is again clearly superior, although this time it's "only" 50 points of OPS. The point here is simple and unavoidable if you're willing to take any sort of meaningful look at performance-based evidence. Lefties have been 23 percent more effective than righties against Weaver and Kubel was 46 percent more effective than Monroe against righties last season. All of which should have made starting Kubel at designated hitter against Weaver an obvious decision.

Instead, Gardenhire went out of his way to bench a left-handed hitter for an inferior right-handed hitter against a right-handed pitcher who has one of the most extreme splits in baseball. My guess is that Monroe will steal plenty of Kubel's at-bats against righties all year, but that it happened on Opening Night is maddening. It's also a direct slap in the face for Kubel, who finally got healthy last season following a major injury and was arguably the Twins' best hitter over the final five months.

Kubel hit .273/.338/.450 overall as a 25-year-old, including .283/.349/.492 from May 10 to the end of the season, 303/.379/.511 after the All-Star break, and .341/.418/.553 over the final two months. On most teams that sort of performance from a young hitter would be celebrated, but on the Twins it's ignored because of the presence of a 31-year-old veteran who hit .219 last season, has zero long-term upside, and is clearly a worse option than Kubel against right-handed pitching.

Monroe went 0-for-3 against Weaver, but Gardenhire struck out before the game even started. Say it with me: Free Jason Kubel!

Little darling, it's been a long, cold, lonely winter
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say, it's all right

Little darling, the smiles are returning to the faces
Little darling, it seems like years since they've been there
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say, it's all right

Little darling, I see the ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it's been clear
There goes the sun
Here comes the sun
And I say, it's all right

- "Here Comes the Sun"

After a long, cold, lonely winter the best day of the year is finally here, but for the first time in the nearly six-year history of this blog Opening Day has arrived without the Twins being viewed as serious playoff contenders. A 79-win season followed by the departures of Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Carlos Silva, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and general manager Terry Ryan mean that the Twins will begin the year without significant expectations for the first time since 2001.

This blog was born on August 1, 2002, as the Twins and first-year manager Ron Gardenhire embarked on a stretch run that led to their first playoff appearance since 1991. I've trotted out "Here Comes the Sun" to celebrate Opening Day a half-dozen times since then, but today is the first time that the lyrics come without expectations of a 90-win season and playoff run. In fact, you'll find more people picking the Twins for last place than first place this year.

I've never blogged about a team that wasn't supposed to win and Gardenhire has never managed a team that wasn't being counted on to contend, so I'm not sure what to expect this season. There are still plenty of intriguing story lines to follow, of course, from Francisco Liriano's comeback and Delmon Young's arrival to Carlos Gomez attempting to replace Hunter and an assortment of young pitchers trying to ease the loss of Santana while working in front of a three-fourths new infield.

From the names and faces to the front office and expectations these aren't your older brother's Twins, but it's also not a bad team. If Gomez bucks the odds by holding his own at the plate, Young lives up to even a fraction of the hype, Joe Mauer stays healthy, and Gardenhire avoids the temptation of playing Craig Monroe and Nick Punto over Jason Kubel and Brendan Harris, the lineup will surprise people and the Twins' offense has a chance to be average for just the second time since 1994.

Led by Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek, the bullpen remains the team's biggest strength and could prove to be among the league's elite if Jesse Crain regains his stuff following shoulder surgery or Juan Rincon reverses his multi-year decline. And while conventional wisdom would suggest that the bullpen has to carry the entire the pitching staff because the young rotation figures to be a mess, Twins fans should know by now that lack of experience is not synonymous with lack of ability.

Replacing Santana will be impossible, but 25 starts from the Liriano who finished spring training with back-to-back strong outings would give the Twins' rotation an edge over most teams in the league and between Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Philip Humber, Brian Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, and Anthony Swarzak there's no shortage of quality young arms ready to pitch alongside him. I'll take youth and talent over experience and mediocrity every time.

An awful lot of things would need to break right for the Twins to make another playoff push and given the strength of both the Tigers and Indians fourth or fifth place may indeed be more likely than first or second place. With that said, the team is perfectly capable of being more successful than last year's version despite vastly different expectations and if nothing else this season figures to be an interesting one regardless of where the Twins end up in the standings.

The ice may not be completely melted here in Minnesota yet, but the smile has definitely returned to my face because today marks the beginning of seven straight months of baseball. It's like opening a big present on Christmas morning and then spotting 161 more presents under the tree. Before things get rolling, here are 25 specific predictions about the Twins, followed by my guess as to how the 2008 season will play out across baseball:

- Mauer will top 1,000 innings behind the plate while leading AL catchers in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and caught-stealing percentage.

- Justin Morneau's power will not vanish in the second half on the way to his first 40-homer season.

- Livan Hernandez will lead the team in innings, but will have the worst ERA among pitchers who make at least 15 starts.

- Bonser will lead the team in strikeouts and Baker will lead the team in wins.

- Slowey will lead the team in strikeout-to-walk ratio despite his supposed lack of an "out-pitch."

- Gomez will have at least 50 percent more steals than walks.

- Liriano will stay healthy, but won't be the dominant force that he was as a rookie.

- Kubel won't get more plate appearances than last season and will start fewer than a dozen games against left-handed pitchers.

- Monroe will get the bulk of the playing time against southpaws and start at least 25 games against right-handed pitchers despite clearly being inferior to Kubel.

- Long one of the elite defensive players in baseball, Adam Everett will finally win his first Gold Glove.

- Young will be praised constantly for his RBI total, but his OPS will be below average for a left fielder.

- Between Cuddyer, Young, and Gomez the Twins will lead the league in outfield assists.

- Cuddyer and Young will both rank among the AL leaders in double plays and the Twins will lead the league at being doubled up despite a mediocre team on-base percentage.

- People will misguidedly keep questioning Neshek's ability to get left-handers out as he holds them to a sub-.200 batting average for the second straight season.

- Punto's number of plate appearances will be higher than his batting average.

- Harris' OPS will be at least 100 points higher than Punto's, but he'll never start 10 straight games.

- Mike Lamb will be one of the team's top five hitters, but will lose playing time because of his defense.

- Blackburn will show why Baseball America ranking him as the Twins' top prospect was silly.

- Brian Buscher and Randy Ruiz will both be among the International League leaders in OPS while at Rochester, but will combine for fewer than 150 plate appearances in Minnesota.

- Denard Span will complain publicly that the Twins haven't called him up from Triple-A and none of the local writers reporting the story will focus on the fact that he has a .700 OPS at Rochester.

- Julio DePaula will emerge as a reliable middle reliever in the second half.

- Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan will make the All-Star team.

- Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven will force me to wear out my mute button.

- The Twins will win at least as many games as they did last season.

- Many of these predictions will look silly by June and most of them will look silly by September.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEST                       CENTRAL                     EAST
Los Angeles Angels         Detroit Tigers              Boston Red Sox
Oakland A's                Cleveland Indians           New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners           Minnesota Twins             Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers              Chicago White Sox           Tampa Bay Rays
                           Kansas City Royals          Baltimore Orioles

MVP: Alex Rodriguez        CY: C.C. Sabathia           ROY: Joba Chamberlain
ALDS: BOS over LAA         ALDS: NYY over DET          ALCS: BOS over NYY

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEST                       CENTRAL                     EAST
Arizona Diamondbacks       Chicago Cubs                New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers        Milwaukee Brewers           Atlanta Braves
Colorado Rockies           Cincinnati Reds             Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres           St. Louis Cardinals         Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants       Houston Astros              Florida Marlins
                           Pittsburgh Pirates

MVP: David Wright          CY: Johan Santana           ROY: Kosuke Fukudome
NLDS: NYM over ARI         NLDS: ATL over CHC          NLCS: NYM over ATL

WORLD SERIES: NYM over BOS          WORLD SERIES MVP: Johan Santana

Finally, here's Richie Havens doing my favorite version of "Here Comes the Sun":