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Friday, May 30, 2008
Link-O-RamaAmazingly, Carey's predictably forgettable performance still made her look like Joe Nathan compared to Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory's historic effort at a Reds game last season: Eric Davis' reaction to Mallory's "pitch" is one of my favorite things in the history of the world. Wait, it gets better. Explaining why Guillen was benched altogether Wednesday, Leyland noted that he planned to "stand him for two days," because of course sitting him wouldn't be very helpful. Aside from professional athlete, is there another job where having medical problems like hemorrhoids (Guillen) or anal fissures (Kaz Matsui) more or less requires a person's employer to give daily status updates to reporters? If so, hopefully that gig pays $10 million too. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Quarterly Questions: Fire AwayIn the past I've tried to open the floor up for reader-submitted questions every three months or so, but while watching the Twins' dramatic comeback last night it occurred to me that the last Q&A session here took place way back in mid-January. Not only was that pre-spring training and two months prior to Opening Day, it was a week before the Johan Santana trade, so we're obviously beyond overdue and should have plenty of new ground to cover. If you're unfamiliar with how this works, it's basically a poor man's version of an online chat session. You ask questions, either via the comments section or e-mail, and then I answer them in this space at some point in the near future. Typically there are well over a hundred submissions, with enough topic variety to devote separate entries to answering "baseball questions" and "random questions," which means that you're free to ask things that have nothing to do with the Twins. In fact, it's encouraged. Twins-related questions are certainly also encouraged, but if there's some pressing issue that you've wanted my opinion on or some random thing that you've been wondering about me or this blog, here's your chance. As always, please make sure to double-check spelling and grammar while trying to keep the questions as concise and readable as possible, because what you type may appear soon on other people's computer screens. Before stepping aside for the questions, one quick programming note: I'll be appearing on KFAN radio at around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow to talk Twins and other baseball stuff on "The Power Trip Morning Show" with Mike Morris. I'm fairly certain that we'll be taking a bunch of calls from the audience, so feel free to pick up the phone and chime in. Or just listen online. With that bit of self-promotion out of the way, the floor is now open for questions. Fire away! Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Twins Notes: Boof, Bert, More Nathan, and Oh-For-ThrivasBonser's peripheral numbers suggest that he's pitched quite a bit better than his ERA, but at some point it becomes tough to trot him out there with other capable rotation options available. Dating back to last year, Bonser is 6-17 with a 6.02 ERA over his last 30 starts. Bad run support is partly responsible for that win-loss record, but he has a 6.02 ERA with a mediocre 108-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .293 opponent's batting average in 172 innings spread over basically one full season's worth of starts. In a recent interview with David Brown over at Big League Stew, Blyleven discussed the photo: Blyleven: I LOVE to fart.Over the years Blyleven's announcing has increasingly annoyed me and my FSN watching often occurs with the television on mute because it's painful to hear his same tired routine every night, but despite that it's nearly impossible not to like him personally. I've long supported his Hall of Fame candidacy and Blyleven seems like a great guy, so it'd be nice if his announcing had more humor and meaningful analysis rather than being dominated by repetitive cliches, odd grammatical ticks, and fan circling. Quibbling about Mauer's home run total is like quibbling about a top point guard's lack of dunking skills. Chris Paul, for example. Mauer is good at everything else. He is superb defensively at catcher, the most demanding position on the field. Entering Monday, he led the American League in batting at .338 and was third in on-base percentage at .416.If that sounds familiar, it's probably because you read the following in this space last week: After collecting multiple hits in each of the past three games, Joe Mauer now leads the AL with a .336 batting average. He also ranks fourth in the league with a .406 on-base percentage and only Kurt Suzuki has logged more innings behind the plate. For all the silly, Dan Barreiro-style talk about Mauer not coming through in the clutch or not making a huge impact because of a lack of power, Mauer ranks third among AL hitters in Win Probability Added, trailing only Manny Ramirez and Josh Hamilton.As always, it's nice to see the local mainstream media picking up on some of the things that I've been harping on here--no, that's not a plagiarism accusation--and it's nice to see Christensen stretching his writing legs a bit with some analysis and opinion. Some readers have questioned why Mauer gets a free pass here for his lack of power while Delmon Young draws plenty of criticism for the same thing, but the difference between them is huge and goes well beyond their nonexistent homer totals. Mauer has tremendous defensive value and stands out from the rest of the pack offensively at catcher, hitting .329 with a .414 on-base percentage and .816 OPS that ranks second in the AL among players at his position. Young has marginal defensive value and lags behind the rest of the pack offensively in left field, hitting just .262 with a .318 on-base percentage and .651 OPS that ranks dead last in the AL among players at his position. Both players have yet to homer, but that's where the comparison ends. Nathan then proceeded to induce a looping fly ball down the left-field line that narrowly fell fair. It would have been a run-scoring double, except Young attempted a sliding catch that came up short and took his sweet time jogging after the ball once it bounced past him, leading to a game-tying inside-the-park homer that saddled Nathan with his first blown save of the season and left Blackburn with a tough-luck no-decision. (Blyleven laughably commented: "There's not much Young could do there.") Nathan quickly retired the next two hitters and finished the inning having thrown just 10 pitches while facing only three batters. When the Twins failed to score in the top of the 10th inning it seemed like a no-brainer that Nathan would be allowed to come back out for another frame, but instead the team's best, highest-paid pitcher called it a night after recording two outs and making all of 10 throws. Dennys Reyes and Jesse Crain then each worked an inning while throwing more pitches than Nathan.Asking lesser relievers to pitch in crucial, game-deciding spots while barely using Nathan is exactly the sort of backwards workload distribution that has cost the Twins plenty of times in the past. It didn't hurt them last night, as Reyes and Crain both managed scoreless innings before the lineup broke through in the top of the 12th, but that doesn't make the decision any better. Oh, and after Gardenhire yanked Nathan following 10 pitches, Royals closer Joakim Soria threw 31 pitches in two scoreless innings. Tiffee hit just .226/.273/.351 in 256 plate appearances spread over 91 games with the Twins and was removed from the 40-man roster following the 2006 season. He signed a minor-league deal with the Orioles, hit a measly .272/.307/.394 in 124 games at Triple-A last season, and then latched on with the Dodgers via another minor-league deal this year. As a 29-year-old with little defensive value and an OPS below .750 in eight minor-league seasons Tiffee seemed unlikely to ever reach the majors again. Instead, he began this season by hitting .422 in 46 games at Triple-A Las Vegas and was called up to Los Angeles over the weekend to replace Andruw Jones on the roster. Tiffee provides a good example of two key things. One is that perseverance is a fantastic trait to have and can occasionally even trump talent. The other is that when it comes to baseball players just about anything can happen over the course of a hundred-something at-bats. Denard Span should probably take note of both lessons. Rivas debuted shortly after his 21st birthday and was a full-time starter in the majors the next season, so Twins management, media members, and plenty of fans always pointed to his youth as evidence of long-term potential despite the fact that he never actually performed well in the minors or majors. After 2,000 replacement-level trips to the plate and 4,000 innings of sub par defense the Twins finally gave up on Rivas and he spent the next two seasons playing at Triple-A for the Rays and Indians. He was no better in the minors, hitting just .218/.252/.288 in 2006 and .263/.341/.400 in 2007, yet the Pirates gave Rivas an Opening Day roster spot. Even after Sunday's two-homer game Rivas is hitting just .221/.247/.325 in 82 plate appearances, with the only real difference in his performance being that the Pirates have allowed him to play bad defense at shortstop in addition to second base. Hopefully Young can avoid the Rivas career path by adding some "performance" to his "youth" soon. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Joe Nathan and the Modern CloserOnce upon a time teams would utilize the bullpen's best pitcher most often, calling on their top reliever whenever crucial, game-changing situations arose and frequently leaving them in for multiple innings. Throughout the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and even into the 1980s elite relievers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm, Kent Tekulve, Sparky Lyle, Mike Marshall, Gene Garber, Tug McGraw, and Dan Quisenberry regularly threw more than 100 innings per season. That group of 10 relievers combined to throw 100-plus innings out of the bullpen 63 times, with each of them doing so in at least four seasons. Fingers averaged 110 innings per season over a dozen-year span. Quisenberry topped 120 innings in five of his first six seasons as a closer. Gossage topped 130 innings in each of his first three seasons as a closer. Tekulve had 100-inning seasons in his 20s, 30s, and 40s. Marshall amazingly threw 179 and 203 innings out of the bullpen in back-to-back seasons. There are plenty of other examples beyond those 10 pitchers, but the point is that great relievers used to frequently work multiple innings per appearance and top 100 innings per season. That all began to change in the 1980s thanks in large part to Dennis Eckersley's success as a one-inning closer and the shift was essentially complete by early 1990s. These days nearly all closers are held back strictly for "save" situations and asked to work just one inning in the vast majority of their appearances. Whereas for many years the best relievers threw the most innings, the current standard for bullpen management often calls for many of the best relievers to throw the fewest innings because of strict usage patterns that revolve around a statistic. Baseball's all-time leader in saves, Trevor Hoffman, has never thrown 100 innings in a season and hasn't topped 80 innings since 1997. It's no coincidence that his career high of 90 innings, set in 1993, came in the only season that he wasn't a closer. Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, Roberto Hernandez, Jose Mesa, Todd Jones, Jason Isringhausen, Armando Benitez, and Bob Wickman are the "active" relievers with at least 250 career saves. Those 10 relievers have combined for a grand total of one 100-inning season, and that came from Rivera when he was a setup man for closer John Wetteland (64 innings) in 1996. Not only don't current closers throw 100 innings, they rarely even get to 80. Joe Nathan has been as good as any reliever in baseball since joining the Twins in 2004, but threw just 72, 70, 68, and 72 innings during his first four years as closer and is on pace to log a career-low 65 innings this season. His usage is almost entirely dependent on how many times the Twins lead by one, two, or three runs in the ninth inning, because Ron Gardenhire holds him back for one-inning save situations except for the rarest of circumstances.In years past the strength and depth of the Twins' bullpen made Nathan's strict usage more annoyance than hindrance, because there were typically several quality setup men to put out fires in non-save situations. However, with the relief corps now struggling following Pat Neshek's season-ending injury Gardenhire's refusal to use his best reliever in crucial non-save situations has already hurt the team and will continue to do so. We've seen Nathan left unused in the bullpen in tie games while lesser relievers take losses, because Gardenhire was holding him back for a "save situation" that never arrived. We've seen Nathan used for just a dozen or so pitches before several lesser relievers were called upon to throw multiple innings, eventually coughing up runs. And we've seen Nathan used in mop-up situations because he "needed work" after not being used in crucial, non-save spots during the previous few games. Not only have Matt Guerrier and Brian Bass each thrown 50 percent more innings than Nathan, Juan Rincon has gotten about 10 percent more work. Even Jesse Crain has essentially gotten the same workload as Nathan despite coming back from significant shoulder surgery and not being effective since 2006. Beyond the seemingly counter-intuitive innings distribution, Nathan has also been allowed to throw just 16 pitches per appearance: P/GExcept for situational left-hander Dennys Reyes, every reliever on the team has been allowed to throw more pitches per appearance than Nathan. Meanwhile, he's by far the best reliever on the team and makes more money than the rest of the bullpen combined. So why is the team's best, highest-paid reliever used the least? Because while Gardenhire likely would take pride in replying "no" if asked whether he manages by numbers and stats, in reality he does just that. There's no indication that Nathan is incapable of throwing more than 70 innings per year or 16 pitches per appearance, but because his role revolves around the "save" Gardenhire refuses to use him in non-save situations. Not only is that letting stats impact the way you manage, it's letting the wrong stats impact the way you manage. If not for the fact that one counts as a "save" and the other doesn't, would a three-run lead in the ninth inning be seen as more important than a tie game in the eighth inning? For better or worse limiting closers to 60-70 innings has become the standard throughout baseball, so Gardenhire certainly shouldn't be expected to completely buck that trend by having Nathan throw 100 or 120 innings. However, there's no reason why Nathan should be lifted after five pitches when the game is still in doubt (as was the case last week versus the Rangers) or go unused altogether while Crain, Guerrier, Rincon, Korecky, and Bass work multiple innings when one run can lose the game. Nathan has converted 13-of-13 save chances this season, but has pitched in just seven of Twins' other 37 games. Beyond that, he's thrown more than 20 pitches in just four of the team's 50 games overall. Pushed into more prominent roles following Neshek's injury, the non-Nathan relievers have combined for a 5.40 ERA and 29-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 48 innings without Neshek around to put out non-save fires. All of which was my fear when analyzing the impact of Neshek's injury three weeks ago: Neshek was clearly second only to Nathan in terms of importance to the bullpen and was probably a lot closer to Nathan than most people think. His injury pushes Guerrier, Rincon, Crain, and Reyes into expanded roles and the danger is that it may expose several of them by taking them out of comfort zones and stretching their ability.Non-Nathan relievers won't continue to post a 5.40 ERA all year, but Rincon has gotten progressively worse each season since 2004, Crain is struggling following shoulder surgery, Reyes has fallen apart when asked to face more right-handed batters, and Korecky and Bass are marginal major leaguers. In other words, without Neshek around the Twins' bullpen is far from a strength except for the fact that they still have one of the best relievers in all of baseball. It'd be nice if they used him. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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