AaronGleeman.com
Friday, June 20, 2008

Link-O-Rama

  • After 18 months with the throne vacant, the prestigious Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com title was put up for grabs via reader vote earlier this week. A total of 1,617 ballots were cast between six candidates, with Keeley Hazell narrowly edging Marisa Miller for the crown. Hazell received 25 percent of the votes, compared to 23 percent for Miller, and follows in the footsteps of Heidi Klum, Jessica Alba, and Elisha Cuthbert as the fourth Official Fantasy Girl in AG.com history.

    Hazell has been the favorite to claim the title for quite a while now and likely should have been handed the crown months ago, but her tendency to be photographed sans clothing oddly hurt her candidacy because many of the people who read this blog do so from work and another fraction of the audience is under the age of 18. In the end her qualifications were simply too impressive to ignore, as both the people who read this blog and the creepy loser who runs it agreed that she's the correct choice.

    After Hazell and Miller, Jenna Fischer made a strong showing by finishing third with 18 percent of the vote, followed by Kate Beckinsale at 15 percent, Mila Kunis at 12 percent, and Cuthbert at 8 percent. Cuthbert had an especially poor showing given that she's the only one of the six candidates to have held the title previously, showing that AG.com readers are either against the notion of a repeat winner or too disappointed with her post-Girl Next Door career to still take her seriously as a contender.

    As you can see, the new title-holder looks quite fetching in the OFGoAG.com crown and was graciously willing to put on some clothes to attend the star-studded OFGoAG.com banquet that was held in my mind earlier this week. Congratulations to Keeley and thanks to everyone who voted (and to everyone else who put up with this nonsense competition).


  • Clearly distraught after finishing fourth in the voting, Beckinsale is beginning to doubt herself.


  • On the other hand, Miller appears to have taken the second-place finish in stride and will clearly do her best to remain ready in case something were to happen to the title-holder. Plus, she's now decided to take over college basketball.


  • Had Kunis' secret talent been discovered prior to the voting, things may have gone much differently (unfortunately YouTube removed the video, so that screen shot will have to due.)


  • As a Timberwolves fan who always felt that Kevin Garnett was never fully appreciated in Minnesota, seeing him win a championship in Boston was pretty damn exciting. Garnett has long been criticized for not taking over games offensively, but there's far more to greatness than scoring points and it was fitting that moments after winning the championship he embraced the player who perhaps epitomizes that more than any other in NBA history, Bill Russell.

    Garnett's arrival helped turn the Celtics into the NBA's best defensive team and produced the biggest one-season turnaround in NBA history, all while he quietly led the team in scoring during the playoffs. Sure, he went a little crazy after winning the title, but showing emotion, flirting with old friend Michelle Tafoya, and then dressing up like a 13-year-old boy at his Bar Mitzvah party the next night alongside Ray Allen on Late Show With David Letterman is all part of what makes Garnett so special.


    Garnett averaged 20 points while shooting 50 percent from the field and 81 percent from the line in 26 playoff games, but as usual it was his 10.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks that went overlooked by people who equate "points" with "value." Guys like Dan Barreiro and Patrick Reusse may never see it, but hopefully most of the basketball-watching world has a better grasp of Garnett's greatness now, even if it hasn't changed from his time in Minnesota. Congrats, Kevin.


  • Along with front-office staffer Paul DePodesta blogging, the Padres are considering opening up the Petco Park press box to bloggers. During a recent interview with longtime blogger Geoff Young, Padres chief executive officer Sandy Alderson said: "We've been toying around with allowing people like yourself into the press box. I know there's a lot of controversy about that among mainstream media and so forth, but our attitude is, the more access the better." Buzz Bissinger was unavailable for comment.


  • Next time someone like Bissinger slags blogs while touting the superior standards of newspapers, point him to this news.


  • On a related note, as The Big Lead examined and followed up on, save for a select few big names even the country's top-earning sportswriters make less than the MLB, NFL, or NBA minimum.


  • The always entertaining "Batting Stance Guy" finally got around to covering the Twins:


    My favorite is the three stages of Kent Hrbek, but the whole video is pretty amusing.


  • When he's not making his living betting on basketball games, Haralabos Voulgaris is a part-time poker player who co-hosts an outstanding podcast over at Poker Road. In the wake of the NBA's recent officiating scandal, he did a fascinating two-part interview with ESPN blogger Henry Abbott about Tim Donaghy, sports betting, and basketball analysis.


  • As always on Friday mornings, you can listen to me on KFAN radio at around eight o'clock talking Twins on "The Power Trip Morning Show" with Mike Morris, Cory Cove, and Chris Hawkey. Click here to listen online and feel free to call in with a question.


  • This week's NBCSports.com "Fantasy Fix" show features me chatting Yankees with Tiffany Simons:


    Even if you're not very interested in my take on Mike Mussina and Jorge Posada, the video is worth watching if only to see how my spectacular beard compares to Jason Giambi's amazing mustache. Speaking of Tiffany, Will Carroll is apparently a big fan.


  • As a relatively popular blogger and humongous fan of Adam Carolla who gets asked to promote all sorts of worthless things here, my feelings are hurt by not being targeted to give away something that I'd actually be thrilled to support. Definitely not "good times."


  • Esquire is jumping on the bandwagon now, but Carolla fans know that he's been advocating the use of "nozzle" rather than "bag" for years now.


  • A pair of blogs to check out: Style and Sports and Twins Territory.


  • Finally, in honor of the new Official Fantasy Girl this week's AG.com-approved music video is John Legend singing a live version of "Number One":

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    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

    Wednesday, June 18, 2008

    Twins Notes: Liriano, Rincon, Guerra, Lamb, and Buscher

  • Francisco Liriano turned in another encouraging outing Sunday at Triple-A, allowing two runs on five hits over 7.1 innings. With five strikeouts and more fly balls than ground balls he's still not dominating, but Liriano handed out zero walks and has now issued a grand total of 11 free passes over his last eight starts. He walked 13 batters in three starts with the Twins, so that's a huge improvement. During that eight-start stretch Liriano posted a 3.38 ERA and 42-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53.1 innings.


  • Removed from the roster last week, Juan Rincon declined an assignment to Triple-A and will soon be a free agent unless the Twins can make an unlikely trade in the next few days. Rincon is owed $2.5 million either way and clearly feels that his career will be more easily salvaged elsewhere, saying: "I've got to go do something, find another team to make it back to the big leagues." Rincon's steady decline has been chronicled here repeatedly over the past two years, but for anyone who's missed it:
    YEAR      SO%     K/BB     OAVG     xFIP
    2004     32.4      3.4     .181     3.15
    2005     26.3      3.1     .224     3.32
    2006     20.6      3.0     .270     3.73
    2007     18.1      2.0     .273     4.67
    2008     15.0      1.3     .292     5.34
    Rincon's performance has declined across the board each year since 2004, including annual drops in strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, opponent's batting average, and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. Beyond that, his fastball and slider are both down 3-4 miles per hour compared to his prime. He's only 29 years old, but there's little chance of the decision to release Rincon coming back to haunt the Twins in a meaningful way. Agreeing to pay him $2.5 million for this season was the mistake.

    After posting mediocre numbers as a full-time starter in the minors, Rincon shifted to the bullpen with the Twins and ended up making just three starts in 386 total appearances. He struggled initially, but emerged as one of the AL's elite setup men as a 24-year-old in 2003. In 2004 he had a career-year, going 11-6 with a 2.63 ERA, 106-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .181 opponent's batting average over 82 innings.

    He remained an elite reliever in 2005, was still fairly good in 2006, and then struggled in 2007 before completely falling apart this season. For his Twins career Rincon went 30-26 with a 3.69 ERA over 441 innings, including a four-year stretch that saw him appear in 44 percent of the team's games while posting a 2.93 ERA with 318 strikeouts in 319 innings. Rincon's time in Minnesota came to an ugly end, but his run from 2003-2006 ranks among the best by a reliever in Twins history.


  • J.J. Cooper of Baseball America talked to an unnamed scout about teenage right-hander Deolis Guerra, who was acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana deal. According to the scout, Guerra's velocity being down significantly compared to last season may be due to mechanical changes:
    He's throwing from a higher arm slot than last year. I really think he'll be fine, but I think he has a couple of mechanical things. I think he tried to create some angle to the plate instead of just relying on his changeup being his best pitch. He's trying to be a different guy. I only saw flashes of the changeup I saw last year. It's not as good as it was.

    [...]

    Long-term, he'll be fine. A lot of times a team will wait to make changes with a player they pick up in a trade. They'll do the right things and get him going again. I'll be interested to see the difference between his first-half and second-half splits.
    Guerra was considered by many to be the centerpiece of the Santana deal from the Twins' point of view and prior to the trade BA ranked him as the Mets' top prospect ahead of the trade's other three pieces, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber. Guerra spent last year playing at high Single-A in the Florida State League and is back there again this season. Along with missing 4-5 miles per hour on his fastball, here's how his numbers compare:
    YEAR       IP      ERA      SO%      BB%     K/BB     OAVG     GB/FB
    2007     89.2     4.01     17.8      6.7     2.64     .240      1.42
    2008     63.1     4.83     12.1     10.6     1.13     .266      0.64
    He's still only 19 years old, but that's pretty ugly for someone repeating a level. His strikeouts are down 32 percent, his walks are up 58 percent, and he's shifted from ground-ball pitcher to a fly-ball pitcher. Mulvey and Humber haven't fared much better together at Triple-A. Mulvey has a 3.82 ERA and 64-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71 innings, while Humber has a 5.52 ERA and 39-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 60 innings. Without Gomez's flashes of brilliance, the trade's early returns would be pretty rough.


  • When the Twins signed Mike Lamb to a two-year deal this offseason the hope was that he'd provide enough of an upgrade offensively to make up for sub par defense. He's predictably shown the lack of range that made the Twins one of only a few teams interested in him as a starting third baseman, but surprisingly has also hit just .224/.263/.302 after batting .281/.342/.464 in four seasons with the Astros. In terms of all-around performance, Lamb has been every bit as bad as Tony Batista was in 2006.

    Batista was mercifully let go after 50 games, but the Twins' investment in him was just $1.25 million. Lamb is owed $3.5 million this season and $3 million next season, and the Twins hold a $3.5 million option for 2010 (with a $100,000 buyout), so he'll almost surely stick around. Beyond the contractual differences, Lamb's track record shows that he's capable of far better production offensively, whereas Batista's track record matched his putrid offense and defense.

    There's still hope for Lamb to turn things around offensively, but it sounds like the Twins will give Brian Buscher a chance to supplant him against most right-handers, with Matt Macri taking over against left-handers. As a left-handed hitter who potentially offers a good batting average, solid on-base skills, and mediocre power with a poor glove, Buscher profiles as very similar to Lamb. Interestingly, that same Buscher-Macri platoon was suggested in this space a month prior to the Lamb signing:
    If the Twins were somehow willing to go with unproven players and perhaps take a hit defensively, a Macri-Brian Buscher platoon at third base could be pretty productive for about $650,000.
    It took $6.6 million and 58 bad games from Lamb for the Twins to give it a try, but the Buscher-Macri platoon remains very capable of being productive offensively at a low cost and it'd be tough for them to be any worse than Lamb defensively. Buscher didn't do much for the first four seasons of his pro career and at 27 years old he doesn't possess much long-term upside, but he's been fantastic since coming to the Twins last year.

    Buscher hit .309/.385/.493 in 103 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and .319/.402/.514 in 50 games at Triple-A this year. He's shown decent power during that time with 22 homers and 61 total extra-base hits in 645 plate appearances, and has done a great job controlling the strike zone with a 62-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go with a .312 average. His age and pre-2007 struggles make him far from a sure thing, but if given a chance he could hit much like the Twins hoped Lamb would.


  • First-round pick Aaron Hicks agreed to a $1.78 million signing bonus and will begin his pro career in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Fellow first-round picks Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt have yet to sign, but they're expected to do so eventually and it looks like the Twins will end up agreeing to terms with each of their first six selections. That may not sound newsworthy, but the Twins (and other teams) have lost quite a few high-round picks and future major leaguers because they didn't sign.

    Among the prominent players who were drafted by the Twins from 1990-2003 and declined to sign: J.J. Putz, Jason Varitek, Jeff Clement, Gary Matthews Jr., Aaron Heilman, Paul Maholm, Steve Pearce, Travis Lee, Adam Lind, Emil Brown, Danny Kolb, Brian Lawrence, Josh Bard, and Alex Cora. In fact, during that 14-year stretch the Twins drafted and failed to sign over 30 players who ended up in the big leagues (including multiple All-Stars and several current top prospects).


  • Lamb, Macri, and Nick Punto were also originally drafted by the Twins and failed to sign, but ended up in Minnesota eventually anyway via trades and free agency. Coming out of high school Pat Neshek was drafted by the Twins in the 45th round, but chose Butler University instead of signing and was taken again by the Twins three years later, this time in the sixth round. Along with moving up 39 rounds, Neshek went from a marginal signing bonus to a nice chunk of change.

    Adam Johnson was taken by the Twins in the 25th round coming out of high school in 1997, but chose Cal-State Fullerton over signing. Three years later the Twins selected him with the No. 2 overall pick in the entire draft, but unfortunately Johnson proved to be a complete bust almost immediately. After putting up mediocre numbers in the minors, he posted a hideous 10.25 ERA in just 26.1 innings with the Twins and was released at the age of 25.


  • Over at his Minneapolis Star Tribune blog, Joe Christensen passed along an interesting note from the Twins' recent road trip to Milwaukee:
    They are closing the roof here, as another storm is on its way. ... Think about this: The Brewers have kept the roof open for only six of their first 30 home games. That's a harrowing stat for the Twins, with an open-air ballpark being built for 2010.
    There's a group of "ballpark defenders" who come out of the woodwork whenever someone like me opines that it's a mistake to build an open-air venue in Minnesota, but the above stat about Milwaukee seems more relevant than the "average" temperatures and rainfalls that are often quoted to argue that Minneapolis isn't much different than other cities where teams play without roofs. Whatever the case, the Twins will be canceling multiple games or playing in some ugly weather come 2010.


  • In what may prove to be a rare bright spot on the otherwise execrable St. Paul Pioneer Press site, news editor Mike Decaire has started up a new blog called "The Curse of Big Papi." So far it serves mostly as a clearinghouse for Twins content in other places, with Decaire occasionally adding in a few thoughts of his own alongside various links. One good sign: Decaire liberally links to blogs rather than focusing on mainstream sources, which is a must for anyone diving into the vast Twins blogosphere.
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    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

    Monday, June 16, 2008

    Vote: Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com

    Heidi Klum, Jessica Alba, and Elisha Cuthbert each had lengthy stints as title-holders, but the Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com throne has been vacant since Cuthbert was stripped of her crown in November of 2006. Since then she's reemerged as a potential candidate to reclaim the title, along with five other first-time candidates. I've been trying to decide on the new OFGoAG.com for 18 months now without being able to definitively make a decision, so let's put it to a vote. First, a refresher on the candidates:

    Or if you'd like to do further research:

    - Keeley Hazell: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    - Elisha Cuthbert: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    - Jenna Fischer: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    - Kate Beckinsale: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    - Mila Kunis: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    - Marisa Miller: Wikipedia ... Google Images ... YouTube Video

    Note: After over 1,600 votes the polls are now closed. Check back Friday for the results.


    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.

    E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com


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    Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com

    OFGoAG.com Timeline:
    Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003)
    Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004)
    Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006)
    Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008)
    Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present)

    OFGoAG.com Candidates:
    Marisa Miller
    Jenna Fischer
    Kate Beckinsale
    Mila Kunis
    Elisha Cuthbert