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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #18 Rick Aguilera

Note: The following entry originally ran on August 15, 2007. I'm currently in Cleveland at the annual Society for American Baseball Research convention and the Twins inducted Rick Aguilera into their Hall of Fame over the weekend, so it seemed like a good time for a re-run. I was in attendance for the induction ceremony Saturday night at the Metrodome and was sporting my best attempt at duplicating Aguilera's trademark beard, but sadly he apparently shaved for the event.

RICHARD WARREN AGUILERA | RP/SP | 1989-1999 | CAREER STATS

G GS IP W L ERA ERA+ WARP WS
490 30 694.0 40 47 3.50 130 43.9 101
Originally taken as a third baseman out of high school by the Cardinals in the 37th round of the 1980 draft, Rick Aguilera opted instead for college and became a pitcher. After three years at Brigham Young University, the California native was selected by the Mets in the third round of the 1983 draft and agreed to sign. Aguilera moved quickly through the minors, reporting to low Single-A after signing and finding himself at Triple-A to begin his third pro season.

Working strictly as a starter, Aguilera had a 3.47 ERA and 256-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 259.1 combined innings between Single-A and Double-A. After posting a 2.51 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A to begin the 1985 season, the Mets called him up in June. He debuted on June 12 against the Phillies, tossing two scoreless innings in relief of Ron Darling and Jesse Orosco to pick up the win in an extra-inning game. Not yet 24 years old, Aguilera was in the majors for good.

After debuting as a reliever, Aguilera moved into the Mets' rotation and went 9-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 19 starts. While a very solid rookie season, Aguilera was completely overshadowed by 20-year-old rotation-mate and 1984 Rookie of the Year Dwight Gooden, who went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA to win the NL Cy Young and pitching triple crown. Also on that 1985 Mets team was a 27-year-old utility infielder named Ron Gardenhire, who batted .179 in what would be his final big-league season.

Aguilera began the 1986 season alongside Gooden, Darling, Sid Fernandez, and Bob Ojeda in the Mets' impressive young rotation. However, after three poor outings he was moved to the bullpen, where he tossed 19.2 innings with a 3.20 ERA to reclaim his rotation spot. Aguilera finished the season 10-7 with a 3.88 ERA in 141.2 innings for a 108-win team that will go down as one of the best in baseball history, spending the Mets' World Series run working out of the bullpen.

Game 6 of the 1986 World Series is one of the most famous games of all time and will forever be linked to Bill Buckner, Mookie Wilson, Calvin Schiraldi, Bob Stanley, and Ray Knight. Despite that, you can usually stump someone by asking who the winning pitcher was. The answer? Aguilera. With the game tied at 3-3 in the ninth inning, Aguilera relieved Orosco and set the Red Sox down in order. When the Mets failed to score in their half of the inning, Aguilera stayed in for the 10th.

Dave Henderson led off the inning by homering off Aguilera and after Wade Boggs doubled with two outs, Marty Barrett singled him in to put the Red Sox up 5-3. We all know what happened in the bottom of the inning, but it's amazing to think that Aguilera was nearly the goat of the game and then became the winning pitcher, yet almost no one remembers him even being involved. In fact, in a 1,400-word story about the game that ran in the Boston Globe the next morning, Aguilera is mentioned just once.

While the Twins were winning a World Series of their own in 1987, Aguilera remained in the Mets' rotation and went 11-3 with a 3.60 ERA, but was limited to just 17 starts because of an elbow injury that eventually required surgery. He missed most of the 1988 season and then came back as a long reliever in 1989 after David Cone took his spot in the rotation, but was unhappy in a low-leverage bullpen role and asked to be traded. Before that could happen, Aguilera thrived as a reliever.

He threw 69 innings with a 2.34 ERA and 80-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio through July and the success, combined with a more important late-inning role, caused Aguilera to tell The Sporting News: "The most amazing thing is that I'm actually learning to like being a reliever." Despite the slight change of heart, with the Mets clinging to contention and the Twins already out of it on the eve of the trading deadline, the teams completed a blockbuster trade.

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Frank Viola went from Minnesota to New York for a five-player package of Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage. West was considered a premier prospect at the time, but it turned out to be Tapani and especially Aguilera who made it one of the best swaps in Twins history. Aguilera got his wish by moving into the rotation following the trade, starting 11 games with a 3.21 ERA as Jeff Reardon finished up his third straight 30-save season.

However, plans changed when Reardon left via free agency in December, signing a then-massive three-year contract with the Red Sox worth $6.8 million. Armed with a low-90s fastball, a hard-breaking slider, and a forkball that dropped off the table, Aguilera was the obvious choice to replace Reardon. "He's the most experienced we've got, the most capable strikeout pitcher," pitching coach Dick Such told the Associated Press in March of 1990. "He fits the bill."

When it became clear during spring training that Aguilera would be taking over as closer, he told the Associated Press that he "was a little disappointed at first" because "I was really excited about being able to start," but added that "I'll do it for the team." Things got off to a rough start when Aguilera blew his third save chance, serving up a walk-off three-run homer to Dante Bichette on April 14, 1990, but he recovered to convert 32-of-38 save chances while posting a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings.

Aguilera made the first of three straight All-Star teams in 1991, tying Reardon's team record with 42 saves while posting a 2.35 ERA and 61-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings as the Twins made their second World Series run in five seasons. A career .201 hitter with three homers in 139 at-bats, Aguilera became the first pitcher since Don Drysdale in 1965 to pinch-hit in the World Series when he came off the bench with two outs in the 12th inning of Game 3, flying out with the bases loaded.

Moments later, Aguilera took the loss by giving up a walk-off single to Mark Lemke, but that was the lone postseason run he allowed while saving five of the team's eight playoff victories. He followed up the marvelous 1991 season by ranking second in the league with 41 saves in 1992, and then saved 57 of the team's 124 wins between 1993 and 1994. When baseball returned after the strike in mid-1995, Aguilera was an impending free agent and the highest paid pitcher on baseball's worst team.

He posted a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 innings through early July, saving a dozen games despite the team's 19-44 start. On July 6, with Aguilera on the verge of becoming a 10-and-5 player who could veto any trades, the Twins sent him to the Red Sox for Frankie Rodriguez, a 22-year-old right-hander who Baseball America ranked as the No. 36 prospect in baseball. Rodriguez was a bust, going 25-32 with a 5.20 ERA in 509.1 innings spread over four seasons in Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Aguilera picked up his first Red Sox save the next day, pitching a scoreless ninth inning against the Twins, at the Metrodome. He ended up converting 20-of-21 saves to help the Red Sox win the AL East, but saw his only playoff action in Game 1 of the ALDS, serving up a game-tying homer to Albert Belle in the 11th inning as a 100-win Indians team blitzed through the Red Sox on their way to the World Series.

Aguilera hit the open market that winter, but decided to return to Minnesota on a multi-year deal with an annual salary that was less than he made the previous season. Unsatisfied with a shaky rotation that was led by a pair of 23-year-olds in Rodriguez and Brad Radke, manager Tom Kelly made Aguilera a starter again. Kelly had every reason to worry about the rotation, as Twins starters combined for a 5.48 ERA, but changing a 34-year-old Aguilera's role turned out to be a mistake.

An arm injury allegedly suffered while lifting a suitcase limited Aguilera to one start in the team's first 60 games, and he went just 8-6 with a 5.42 ERA before a hamstring injury ended his season in early September. Aguilera moved back to the bullpen in 1997 and saved 64 games for a pair of sub-.500 teams over the next two seasons, but blew 18 saves and saw his ERA rise to 4.04 after compiling a 2.86 ERA during his first six seasons as Twins closer.

Now 37 years old, Aguilera began the 1999 season pitching as well as ever, going 3-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21.1 innings. However, the Twins were once again the league's worst team and Aguilera was handed just eight save chances through 40 games. With the Twins sitting at 13-27 on May 21, Aguilera was traded to the Cubs along with Scott Downs for minor-league pitchers Kyle Lohse and Jason Ryan.

He was gone for good this time, saving 37 games with a 4.31 ERA in two seasons with the Cubs to finish his 16-year career. Ryan appeared in a total of 24 games for the Twins, going 1-5 with a 5.94 ERA in 66.2 innings, but Lohse developed into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who went 51-57 with a 4.88 ERA before eventually wearing out his welcome midway through the 2006 season. Unlikely as it seemed at the time of each trade, the haul for Aguilera was better the second time around.

Aguilera became the Twins' all-time leader in saves when he notched No. 109 in September of 1992 and with a total of 254 he remains a couple years away from potentially giving up the top spot to current closer Joe Nathan. He blew at least a half-dozen saves in each of his seven full seasons as Twins closer and converted 81.4 percent of his save chances in Minnesota, which is mediocre by today's standards. By comparison, Nathan has converted 91.8 percent of his save chances with the Twins.

However, it's important to note that Kelly used Aguilera much differently than Gardenhire has used Nathan. Nathan has inherited a grand total of 35 runners in five seasons with the Twins, which works out to one inherited runner for every nine innings. Aguilera faced 38 inherited runners in his first season as Twins closer, and then saw 37 and 40 more in the next two years. In all, Aguilera inherited 207 runners during his time in Minnesota, which works out to one every 2.5 relief innings.

In other words, the vast majority of Nathan's saves have come when he began an inning with a clean slate, whereas Aguilera's saves often came when he entered a game with runners on base. That goes a long way towards explaining his seemingly mediocre save percentage, and Aguilera also deserves credit for stranding over three-fourths of the runners he inherited. For a guy who never wanted to be a reliever, Aguilera's 318 career saves ranked eighth in baseball history at the time of his retirement.
TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:

Saves 254 1st
Games 490 2nd
ERA 3.50 12th
Strikeouts 586 13th
Wins 40 22nd
Innings 694 23rd


Wednesday, June 25, 2008

WPA in the Gardenhire Era

Win Probability Added (WPA) measures how much impact specific plays had on the outcome of each game and assigns that value to the individual players responsible. For example, when evaluated by WPA within the context of each game hitting a grand slam in the fifth inning when the score is 10-2 has less value than drawing a walk in the eighth inning when the score is 5-5. Similarly, striking out to lead off a game is seen as less damaging than striking out down a run in the bottom of the ninth inning.

There are much better and longer explanations of WPA than that one, of course. If you're interested in learning more, Dave Studeman's WPA primer at The Hardball Times is a good place to start, and both Fan Graphs and Baseball-Reference.com offer tons of information on the subject. It's far from a perfect stat and isn't meant to predict how valuable a player will be or even definitely prove how valuable each player has been, but WPA is an interesting tool to use in looking back at what has already taken place.

In the past my looks at WPA have focused on current seasons, using the stat to break down monthly totals, examine player contributions within a particular stretch of games, or delve into how a specific game was won or lost. However, thanks to Fan Graphs recently releasing historical WPA numbers we can now use the data for bigger questions. For instance, how does WPA distribute the credit for the team's 574-473 (.548) record since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager in 2002?

Before tackling that, it's important to note than WPA doesn't measure defensive contributions, so strong defenders don't receive full credit for their value. Beyond that, WPA doesn't place offensive contributions in the context of position, so an .850 OPS from a catcher or shortstop is treated the same as an .850 OPS from a designated hitter or left fielder. Nothing can be done about measuring defense via WPA, but it's relatively easy to put the numbers in better context by using positional adjustments.

With the help of Fan Graphs creator David Appelman, I've taken the Twins' raw WPA totals from 2002 through the present and adjusted them based on the MLB average at each position. Most adjustments are minimal, but starters are given a boost relative to relievers and hitters who play up-the-middle positions are given a boost relative to hitters who man corner spots. The end result is an adjusted WPA that shows how much a player has contributed either below or above average for his position.

In six-plus seasons under Gardenhire, the Twins have used a total of 70 hitters and 60 pitchers. Many of those players failed to accumulate 100 plate appearances, so listing everyone would probably be a waste of space (even on the internet). Instead, let's break everyone down into three groups: 1,000-plus plate appearances, 400-999 plate appearances, and 100-399 plate appearances. First up, here are all the guys who either batted at least 1,000 times or faced at least 1,000 hitters under Gardenhire:
ADJUSTED WPA ABOVE AVERAGE: 1,000+ PLATE APPEARANCES

HITTERS adjWPA PITCHERS adjWPA
Joe Mauer 9.88 Johan Santana 21.97
Shannon Stewart 2.76 Joe Nathan 18.23
Corey Koskie 2.66 J.C. Romero 5.12
Jacque Jones 2.53 Brad Radke 4.02
Justin Morneau 1.97 Carlos Silva 3.25
A.J. Pierzynski 1.38 Juan Rincon 2.29
Torii Hunter 1.22 Scott Baker 2.28
Lew Ford 1.15 Kyle Lohse 1.60
Jason Bartlett -0.13 Matt Guerrier 1.17
Doug Mientkiewicz -0.74 Rick Reed 0.72
Michael Cuddyer -0.82 Boof Bonser -1.45
Luis Castillo -0.87 Joe Mays -4.83
Matthew LeCroy -1.16
Jason Kubel -1.46
Cristian Guzman -2.10
Luis Rivas -3.91
Nick Punto -6.96
Johan Santana and Joe Nathan blow away the rest of the competition, which perhaps shouldn't be much of a surprise. Santana emerged as an elite pitcher midway through Gardenhire's first season as manager, winning two Cy Young awards and two ERA titles while going 90-41 (.687) with a 2.92 ERA and 1,289 strikeouts over 1,179 innings. WPA pegs him as 21.97 wins better than an average pitcher from 2002-2007.

Nathan didn't join the Twins until Gardenhire's third year as manager, but has gone 19-8 with a 1.90 ERA and 388 strikeouts over 313 innings while converting 179-of-195 save chances for an amazing 91.8 percent success rate. WPA shows Nathan as 18.23 wins better than an average reliever, meaning that the Santana-Nathan combo was worth 40.2 games above .500 while the Twins as a whole were 101 games above .500.

Joe Mauer leads the hitters with 9.88 wins above average and his ranking significantly ahead of Justin Morneau shows the impact that positional adjustments have. Mauer (6.00) and Morneau (6.04) sport nearly identical raw WPA totals. However, given Mauer's playing time the average catcher produced -3.88 WPA, whereas given Morneau's playing time the average first baseman produced 4.07 WPA. Both players have been great, but compared to other catchers Mauer has been absolutely amazing.

Another spot where positional adjustments made a big impact is Torii Hunter. Many Twins fans would probably name Hunter as the team MVP during Gardenhire's time as manager, but his raw WPA was actually -0.18. That's not as bad as it looks, because zero WPA is equivalent to average and "average" equals a .500 record. In other words, according to WPA his offensive contribution was almost exactly average under Gardenhire. Still, Hunter being merely average is surprising.

He batted .274/.330/.480 with Gardenhire as manager, compared to the MLB average of .270/.335/.430. That puts him about five percent above average, but WPA docks him for grounding into a high number of double plays and having a poor stolen-base percentage while showing that he often failed to come through in crucial, game-changing spots. However, once you add in my positional adjustment, Hunter climbs to 1.22 wins better than the average center fielder even without his defensive value thrown in.

Joe Mays is the only pitcher with 1,000-plus plate appearances to post a truly horrendous WPA under Gardenhire, which makes sense given that his long-term contract kept him safe when most pitchers who performed as poorly as he did would have been dumped from the pitching staff. Nick Punto and Luis Rivas rate as the worst position players and combine for 10.87 wins below average, which makes sense given that Gardenhire loves middle infielders who can't hit.
ADJUSTED WPA ABOVE AVERAGE: 400-999 PLATE APPEARANCES

HITTERS adjWPA PITCHERS adjWPA
Bobby Kielty 2.04 LaTroy Hawkins 5.55
Mike Redmond 1.22 Pat Neshek 3.44
David Ortiz 0.24 Eddie Guardado 3.32
Jason Tyner -0.87 Francisco Liriano 2.28
Denny Hocking -1.44 Tony Fiore 1.48
Juan Castro -1.87 Jesse Crain 1.42
Luis Rodriguez -2.40 Dennys Reyes 1.04
Rondell White -2.46 Eric Milton 0.62
Dustan Mohr -2.54 Nick Blackburn 0.59
Kevin Slowey 0.46
Matt Garza -0.12
Ramon Ortiz -0.49
Livan Hernandez -0.97
Kenny Rogers -1.17
Terry Mulholland -2.04
Whereas the 1,000-plus plate appearances group was the place to find longtime lineup regulars and key starting pitchers, the 400-999 plate appearances group is home to lots of part-time players and relievers. LaTroy Hawkins, Pat Neshek, and Eddie Guardado were each fantastic out of the bullpen under Gardenhire--much like J.C. Romero in the previous grouping--while Bobby Kielty was so good in limited action that he had me freaking out when the Twins dealt him for Shannon Stewart.

Mike Redmond has been extremely productive considering his relatively minor role backing up Mauer, making for an amazing catching duo. David Ortiz was human in his lone season under Gardenhire, ranking 0.24 wins above an average designated hitter before racking up 26.2 WPA (and counting) over the next six seasons in Boston. Livan Hernandez has already posted the eighth-worst adjusted WPA among all Gardenhire pitchers, although Sidney Ponson's brief stint last season was still worse.
ADJUSTED WPA ABOVE AVERAGE: 100-399 PLATE APPEARANCES

HITTERS adjWPA PITCHERS adjWPA
Jose Offerman 1.10 Mike Jackson 1.27
Brian Buscher 0.05 Glen Perkins 0.39
Craig Monroe -0.14 Grant Balfour 0.27
Michael Restovich -0.14 Bob Wells 0.15
Brian Buchanan -0.26 Brian Bass 0.01
Chris Gomez -0.31 Joe Roa -0.03
Brendan Harris -0.53 Willie Eyre -0.19
Jeff Cirillo -0.71 Carmen Cali -0.34
Mike Lamb -0.75 Carlos Pulido -0.51
Tom Prince -0.80 Jack Cressend -0.51
Jay Canizaro -0.83 Matt Kinney -0.94
Michael Ryan -1.04 Sidney Ponson -1.02
Tony Batista -1.10 Seth Greisinger -1.03
Carlos Gomez -1.18 Aaron Fultz -1.22
Delmon Young -1.55
Henry Blanco -1.72
Terry Tiffee -1.74
Alexi Casilla -2.16
This group is where you'll find some young current Twins mixed in with one-season castoffs, mop-up men, pre-Redmond backup catchers, and failed prospects. Jose Offerman and Mike Jackson lead the way as the only significantly positive contributors in the 100-399 plate appearances bunch, as a 35-year-old Offerman batted .256/.363/.395 while coming up with several keys hit off the bench in 2004 and a 37-year-old Jackson posted a 3.27 ERA over 55 innings of relief in 2002.

At the other end of the spectrum, Alexi Casilla, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez have posted horrible WPA totals early in their Twins career, although Casilla has actually been slightly above average for a second baseman this year after being a complete mess last season. Oh, and the much-maligned Tony Batista managed to be 1.1 wins worse than an average third baseman despite playing just 50 games, and that's without factoring in his awful defense.


Monday, June 23, 2008

1.5 Back

When the Twins arrived in Chicago on June 6 to begin a pivotal four-game series with the White Sox, they were 2.5 games back in the AL Central. A sweep followed, during which the White Sox out-scored the Twins 40-15 and plated double-digit runs in three games. With the pitching staff demolished, the Twins traveled to Cleveland the next day and received a great start from Scott Baker, only to have C.C. Sabathia render the lineup helpless in a complete-game shutout.

Suddenly the Twins were three games below .500 and 6.5 games behind a White Sox team that had won seven out of eight, and any thoughts of contending this season appeared to be slipping away. Instead, the Twins responded by putting together their most impressive stretch of the season, splitting the next two games against the Indians, winning two out of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee, and sweeping both the last-place Nationals and first-place Diamondbacks at the Metrodome.

While the Twins were going 9-2 the White Sox went 4-7, and just like that the Twins are now only 1.5 games back in the division with 86 games left to play. Both the offense and defense thrived during that stretch, with the lineup scoring 6.5 runs per game (compared to 4.5 runs per game previously) and the pitching staff allowing 3.5 runs per game (compared to 5.1 runs per game previously). In particular, the rotation bounced back in a huge way following the disastrous series in Chicago:
                      DATE     OPP      IP     ER
Nick Blackburn 6/11 CLE 6.0 2
Livan Hernandez 6/12 CLE 3.0 7
Kevin Slowey 6/13 MIL 8.0 2
Glen Perkins 6/14 MIL 6.0 3
Scott Baker 6/15 MIL 6.0 3
Livan Hernandez 6/17 WAS 7.0 1
Kevin Slowey 6/18 WAS 6.0 1
Glen Perkins 6/19 WAS 8.0 3
Scott Baker 6/20 ARI 6.0 1
Nick Blackburn 6/21 ARI 7.0 1
Livan Hernandez 6/22 ARI 7.0 1
Livan Hernandez's clunker against the Indians on June 12 was the lone outing that didn't qualify as a Quality Start during that 11-game stretch, which along with six-plus runs per game from the lineup is a pretty dependable recipe for success. Hernandez, Baker Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins each turned in a pair of Quality Starts, combining for a 3.08 ERA over 70 innings. Faced with a lighter workload, the bullpen also got on track after struggling following the loss of Pat Neshek.

There were seemingly multiple runners on base each time Justin Morneau stepped to the plate and he went 16-for-45 (.356) with 15 RBIs over 11 games. Win Probability Added pegs Morneau's hitting as the biggest driving force behind the team going 9-2, which isn't surprising given that he was repeatedly given a chance to bat in crucial, game-changing spots and more often than not came through. Here's how WPA distributes the credit for the Twins' past 11 games:
                      WPA                              WPA
Justin Morneau 1.14 Glen Perkins -0.03
Brian Buscher 0.54 Mike Redmond -0.06
Jesse Crain 0.53 Boof Bonser -0.09
Kevin Slowey 0.52 Mike Lamb -0.14
Nick Blackburn 0.36 Craig Monroe -0.16
Joe Mauer 0.30 Dennys Reyes -0.18
Matt Guerrier 0.28 Alexi Casilla -0.25
Michael Cuddyer 0.27 Carlos Gomez -0.52
Jason Kubel 0.20
Brian Bass 0.20
Brendan Harris 0.18
Delmon Young 0.08
Livan Hernandez 0.05
Matt Macri 0.05
Craig Breslow 0.04
Scott Baker 0.02
Joe Nathan 0.01
What's remarkable is that the Twins got positive contributions from 17 of 25 players and even a few of the negative contributions were minimal. In particular, Hernandez, Delmon Young, and Brendan Harris combined for 0.31 WPA, which doesn't seem like much until you consider their -3.45 WPA through 65 games. While nowhere near as noticeable as Morneau driving in 15 runs in 11 games, getting slightly above average production from three players who previously dragged the team down is huge.

Calling up Brian Buscher from Triple-A and installing him as the starting third baseman also had a big impact. Despite not taking over from Mike Lamb until Game 4 of the 11-game stretch, his 0.54 WPA ranked second to only Morneau. Joe Mauer ranked third among the team's hitters with 0.30 WPA and his batting .351 while getting on base at a .468 clip was a big part of how Morneau was able to come up with so many runners to potentially knock in.

After totaling -0.68 WPA through 65 games, Jesse Crain tossed 5.1 scoreless, one-hit innings while racking up 0.53 WPA and taking on much of the late-inning setup work that was left by Neshek's injury. Toss in two good starts apiece from Slowey and Blackburn, the usual solid work from Matt Guerrier, continued power from Jason Kubel, and some much needed production from Michael Cuddyer, and you can see how the Twins quickly jumped back into the AL Central race.

Carlos Gomez and to a lesser extent Alexi Casilla accounted for the only hugely negative impacts over the past 11 games, which is interesting given the credit they've been given for jump-starting the lineup. Gomez hit .224/.250/.245 with a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while Casilla batted .244/.298/.268. That the Twins still scored 6.5 runs per game despite such poor production atop the lineup is important, because Gomez has been streaky all year and Casilla was playing way above his head initially.

With a trip to San Diego to face the last-place Padres next on the schedule and a homestand against the Brewers, Tigers, and Indians following that, the Twins have a great opportunity to climb past the suddenly struggling White Sox. Of course, as the White Sox and Twins have both shown over the past few weeks, the beauty of baseball is that for all the talk about the importance of "momentum" it often proves to be as meaningful as sprinting midway through a marathon.



Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.