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Friday, July 25, 2008
Link-O-RamaThis is a site for baseball columns, not for baseball blogs. The proprietor of the site is not a fan of blogs. He made that abundantly clear on a radio show with Charley Steiner when Steiner asked him what he thought of blogs and he replied, "I hate blogs." He later heartily applauded Buzz Bissinger when the best-selling author denounced bloggers on a Bob Costas HBO show.Welcome to the blogosphere, Murray.  That'd be Maria Menounos doing her best "pretty girl pose" on the left and David Ortiz doing his best "Captain Morgan pose" on the right. Not seen is me doing my best "jealous loser in his underpants with chip crumbs on his t-shirt pose" while watching the game from a couch in my living room . Howard Stern wack packer High Pitch Erik stepped up. The longtime Stern character didn't get a picture taken with Andrews. He just asked her who she was and if she wanted to go on Stern's show. When Andrews told him that the show should go through ESPN to book her as a guest, he then asked her for her phone number. Seriously.They plan to wed in the spring. Mrs. Erin High Pitch has a certain ring to it, you've got to admit. For some reason, after watching that debacle I feel sorry for Bill Laimbeer and Rick Mahorn. Never before has news from England been so fascinating. Not surprisingly, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated notes that Angels general manager Tony Reagins "understandably laughed off the absurd report from a Minnesota paper ... as the babble of bloggers." Apparently not seeing the disconnect between something simultaneously coming from "a Minnesota paper" and being "the babble of bloggers," Heyman writes: "Good line, though some bloggers actually do great work." Gee, thanks. Walters being mistaken for one of us is a low point for all bloggers. The bad news for Tiffany Simons fans is that she's not co-hosting the video this week, so you're stuck looking only at me. The good news for fans of my beard is that it's become even more spectacular than last week. Actually, I'm giving some serious thought to shaving, because how long can someone really walk around with something completely ridiculous attached to their face before it's totally absurd? I'll obviously keep everyone constantly updated on the status of my horrible facial hair, so stay tuned. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Flipping The Leadoff SwitchOnce it became clear at the end of spring training that Carlos Gomez would be the Twins' everyday center fielder and leadoff man, here was my take: I'm as excited as anyone about Gomez's future, ranking him as the Twins' top prospect, but it's likely a mistake to put him in a position to receive the most plate appearances of anyone on the team while batting directly in front of the lineup's most dangerous hitters. There'll no doubt be flashes of brilliance while Gomez shows off his amazing speed on the bases and in center field, but leading off should primarily be about getting on base and at 22 years old he doesn't figure to do that especially well.That was March 27, so it only took Ron Gardenhire four months, 99 games, and 418 poorly divvied up plate appearances to come to that same conclusion. Of course, correctly predicting that Gomez would be woefully ill-suited to hit atop the lineup--and spending four months campaigning for a switch--hardly qualifies as genius on my part. In fact, it should have been obvious to anyone focusing on his on-field performance and minor-league track record rather than getting caught up in his speed and potential. Baseball Prospectus projected Gomez to hit .249/.301/.361 this season. Baseball Think Factory had him at .241/.299/.346. The Hardball Times pegged him at .247/.293/.337. In other words, three of the top performance-based projection systems around combined to predict that he'd produce an average hitting line of .246/.298/.348. When Gardenhire finally pulled the plug on Gomez leading off prior to last night's game, he was hitting a near-perfect match for the projections at .247/.281/.345. Gomez's track record suggested that he'd hit around .250 with horrible plate discipline and little power, and that's exactly what he's done thus far. If the Twins are aware of such projections they certainly didn't pay any attention to them, choosing to hand their raw, 22-year-old center field a job that set him up for likely failure. It took a 5-for-57 (.088) slump to finally convince Gardenhire that it was time to reverse a decision that never should have been made in the first place.  For now Denard Span replaces Gomez atop the lineup while trying to prove that his breakout is more legit improvement than sample-size fluke. He carried a 283/.348/.348 career line in the minors into this season and batted just .267/.323/.355 at Triple-A last year, which is a performance that would make him as ill-suited for the leadoff spot as Gomez. However, unlike Gomez he's shattered all projections by hitting .340/.434/.481 in 40 games at Triple-A and .341/.437/.466 in 30 games with the Twins.DENARD SPAN PA AVG OBP SLG BB% SO% IsoPPrior to this season Span looked like a No. 9 hitter at best, but whether because of laser-eye surgery or good, old-fashioned development by way of maturation he's looked like a prototypical leadoff man for the past four months. Lots of weird things can happen in 289 plate appearances and the 60-point jump in batting average obviously won't last very long, but Span has upped his walk rate by 70 percent while producing 108 percent more power. He's been a completely different player. If Span maintained his performance so far this season he'd be one of the best players in baseball, but even if his batting average dips back to .280 or so while his current rate walk rate and Isolated Power both decline by 15 percent, he'd end up hitting around .280/.360/.395. Toss in some good speed and that version of Span would be an ideal leadoff man. With that said, following six mediocre years with four good months leaves plenty of reason to be skeptical and Span may yet turn back into a pumpkin. Beyond that, even if the new and improved Span is here to stay he seemingly won't have anywhere to play once Michael Cuddyer returns from the disabled list. Between signing a long-term extension this winter and hitting just .252/.324/.376 between hand injuries Cuddyer isn't going anywhere whether the Twins want him to or not. Delmon Young was acquired at a huge cost this offseason and has turned things around recently after a brutal start. And Jason Kubel has been the team's third-best hitter.  That leaves Span as a fourth outfielder unless the Twins are willing to take Gomez's demotion a step further by platooning him in center field or several steps further by sending him down to Triple-A. Given how long it took just to bump him from the leadoff spot my guess is that sending Gomez to Rochester would require a 5-for-500 slump, give or take a couple of bunt hits, but a Gomez-Span platoon would seemingly be a good fit considering their complimentary handedness.Whatever the case, after finally making the correct decision regarding Gomez's spot in the lineup the Twins could face an even tougher call once Cuddyer comes off the shelf at some point next month. Assuming that Cuddyer, Young, and Kubel are more or less locked into the lineup, can the Twins really bench Span if he continues to hit anywhere close to this well with Gomez looking totally overmatched at the plate while making an out 70 percent of the time? Gomez has swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone than anyone in the AL save for freak of nature Vladimir Guerrero, and among the league's 82 hitters who qualify for the batting title he ranks 71st in batting average, 81st in on-base percentage, 78th in slugging percentage, 79th in pitches per plate appearance, 74th in Isolated Power, 80th in walk rate, and last in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's the worst-hitting regular in the league overall and is batting .207/.244/.271 in 43 games since June 1. Prior to the season my stated preference was for Gomez to begin the year at Rochester while a place-holder manned center field, with the idea being that he could use additional minor-league seasoning after being rushed to the majors and using up a year of his team-controlled, pre-free agency service time made little sense given that he was likely to struggle. At the time my choice for that place-holder was a low-cost veteran free agent, but Span's emergence has made him the obvious choice. If Cuddyer gets healthy and the clock doesn't strike midnight on Span, it should become obvious (or perhaps more obvious) that Gomez's performance doesn't warrant a starting job. If that time comes, will the Twins stick with him at Span's expense? Will they move Gomez into a part-time role, platooning with Span? Will they make Span the full-time center fielder and send Gomez down to Triple-A? Moving Gomez from the leadoff spot is a start, but once Cuddyer returns something else has to give. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Twins Notes: Service Time, The New Jacque, and RumorsUltimately Liriano has chosen to be represented by his agent and should certainly be held accountable for statements made on his behalf, but it sounds like Liriano expressed frustration with still being at Rochester--understandable given that he's 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA over his last 10 starts there--and his agent fanned the flames by making a formal complaint. Luckily for Liriano it appears as though both Ron Gardenhire and Bill Smith have directed most of their vitriol at his agent. Here's Liriano's take: I don't know why they're keeping me down here. I don't know why. I'm a much better pitcher now than I was. My velocity is coming back, I'm throwing more sliders, everything is coming together. It's not frustrating. I've got to be patient and do my job. Just keep on doing what I'm doing now.Those certainly don't sound like the words of someone who's the driving force behind a grievance alleging a serious offense, so Liriano should probably be cut some slack. It seems unlikely to me that service time has played the biggest factor in the Twins' handling of Liriano. Instead, it's probable that they feel guilty about the way he was rushed to the majors in April and because of that are going out of their way to avoid bringing him back before he's completely ready this time around. In April the Twins called up Liriano from Triple-A despite both his on-field performance and advice from the Rochester coaching staff suggesting that he was far from ready. He predictably bombed, going 0-3 with an 11.32 ERA before being sent back down with all sorts of confidence issues and new questions about his long-term outlook. As recently as three weeks ago he turned in back-to-back poor outings at Rochester, so it's tough to argue that they've kept him at Triple-A significantly longer than necessary. Toss in the fact that Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins are all pitching well and Livan Hernandez's horrible ERA apparently doesn't bother any of the team's decision-makers, and it's easy to see an explanation for why Liriano remains at Triple-A that has little to do with service time. Plus, if the Twins were so concerned about managing his service time at all costs they never would have given Liriano a rotation spot in April to begin with. Keeping Santana in the bullpen years after he'd shown himself to be the team's most dominant pitcher was overkill. Letting Bartlett beat up on Triple-A pitching for a third straight season while Castro stunk at shortstop was overkill. Asking Liriano to make a few extra starts at Rochester to instill confidence that he won't be a mess if the Twins call him up this time is totally different. Plus, would you rather have Liriano in the Twins' rotation for the past few weeks or for all of 2012? You won't find anyone more eager to dump Hernandez from the rotation than me and no one cries louder for young players to be given fair shakes, but being overly cautious with Liriano is a no-brainer and if keeping him at Triple-A for a few extra weeks means delaying his free agency an extra year, that's an easy call to make whether the Twins did it on purpose or not. Hopefully his agent's grievance will be deemed spurious and Liriano will be called up soon, so the focus can shift to his improving stuff. So far the same is true of Kubel, which is why despite being one of his biggest supporters you'll never see me complain about Craig Monroe starting over him against a left-hander. With that said, it's worth noting that Gardenhire played Jones every day despite his complete inability to hit lefties, while Kubel has basically always been a platoon player. In seven years with the Twins, 23 percent of Jones' playing time came versus lefties, whereas Kubel has batted against a southpaw just 16 percent of the time. In addition to their nearly identical struggles against lefties, Jones and Kubel have also posted similar career numbers against righties. Jones has hit .290/.340/.476 in 3,897 plate appearances, while Kubel has hit .275/.328/.463 in 887 plate appearances. My guess it that Kubel will surpass Jones' numbers against righties, because he's still just 26 years old (Jones had his two best seasons at 27 and 28) and is improving the further away he gets from knee surgery, but so far they've been very close. Elite left-handed batters tend to be good enough overall that they remain strong options against lefties despite the big drop in production. However, when it comes to non-elite left-handed batters like Jones or Kubel teams can usually get better production against lefties from even a mediocre right-handed batter. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are certainly elite left-handed batters, yet even they've been mediocre at best versus lefties during their careers. Mauer has hit .326/.419/.504 against righties and .291/.352/.367 against lefties, which is a 20-percent drop in production. Morneau has hit .296/.369/.534 versus righties and .258/.304/.437 versus lefties, which is an 18-percent drop in production. Kubel and Jones are similar in that they've been 17 percent and 22 percent worse against lefties, respectively, but the difference with Morneau and Mauer is that they're good enough overall that they remain relatively productive after the versus-lefties drop. You don't want to devastate him any more than he already is because he's fighting it pretty hard. If I have to move him down, I have to move him down. I'm just giving him every opportunity, and we'll see. ... You only lead off as the No. 1 hitter of the game once, and then it rolls around. I always find that amazing how much emphasis gets put on that.Gardenhire is correct in the sense that the physical act of "leading off" tends to be vastly overrated in terms of importance, but the much bigger issues are that Gomez a) makes a tremendous amount of outs and rarely gets on base in front of the Twins' best hitters, and b) is on pace for 125-150 more plate appearances than he'd get batting ninth. Gardenhire has ignored those issues because Gomez runs very fast, but to steal his own line: "I always find that amazing how much emphasis gets put on that." Trade WindsNext, here's a follow-up note from July 14: Twins ask Seattle about BeltreAnd finally, here's the latest tidbit from yesterday: Beltre trade doesn't appear likelyTo recap: First the Twins talked amongst themselves and decided that they'd be interested in acquiring one of the AL's better all-around third basemen. Then they actually contacted the Mariners to discuss a potential trade for Beltre. And finally they realized that the Mariners weren't going to trade him cheaply, thus ending the potential for a deal. Throughout all of that my e-mailbox and the comments section here were filled with the same question: "Why aren't you talking about the Beltre rumors?!" That's why. I'll take the wins. Who do you want, a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA or a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA? I'll take the 16-8.My hope is that Smith was just sticking up for Hernandez and being literal with his response, because certainly at the most basic level 16 wins are far better than 10 wins. If instead the man in charge of running the team honestly believes that "a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA" has out-performed "a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA" ... well, then the Twins may not be in the greatest hands (and Smith may not think much of Bert Blyleven's Hall of Fame case or Scott Baker's "loss" yesterday afternoon). Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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E-Mail: AaronGleeman@Gmail.com 
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