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Friday, August 01, 2008
Link-O-RamaToday marks the sixth anniversary of this blog, which seems unfathomable to me. Seriously, six years. When this blog debuted on August 1, 2002 the guy writing it was a teenager home from college for the summer, searching for any kind of way to write for some sort of audience after failing to grab a spot on the school newspaper. Six years, 1,458 entries, 8,471 links to Elisha Cuthbert pictures, and 4.3 million visitors later I'm a 25-year-old quasi-adult with a full-time job and 30-year mortgage. It's scary, really. Like a child actor on a long-running sitcom, I've grown up on this blog. Or at least whatever growing up I've done has been chronicled here. If you'd told me back in 2002 that this blog would be around six months later, I'd have been surprised. If you'd told me back in 2002 that this blog would be around six years later and would be largely responsible for most good things in my life ... well, I'd have stared blankly at you like people back in 2002 stared blankly at me when I tried to explain what a "blog" was. Whether this is your first day here or you've been around for all six years (hi mom!), thanks for stopping by. My dream has always been to write about sports for a living and while this isn't quite the path that was stuck in my head growing up, it's been an amazing experience full of wonderful opportunities and I couldn't be happier with how the ride has gone so far. And none of it would have been possible without this blog and the people who read it, so thank you. While my head tries to wrap itself around the fact that I've been doing this for six years, here's the usual assortment of Friday links ... They'd blow up a half-dozen balls, smack them around the section for a few minutes, and then watch as one particular female usher would angrily grab them and pop each one while scolding everyone. And then 15 minutes later another half-dozen beach balls would be flying around the section. It was oddly pretty fascinating and there must have been at least 25 balls involved, which made life miserable (or perhaps more miserable) for the usher. Near the end of the game Will grabbed hold of a beach ball and popped it with the pen he'd been using to keep score, which incensed everyone around us. A fairly loud chant of "a**-hole, a**-hole, a**-hole" immediately started--which Greg and I giddily took part in--and throughout the last couple innings Will was heckled from all sides by some legitimately furious people. Among the many things that angry fans called Will was "ball-point pen guy," which is a nickname that I'm really hoping sticks. "Wear black and wear layers." You can look at all the bogus sabremetric stats you want, and twist any stat to say what you want it to say really. Sabremetric stats are a terrible representation of a player's effectiveness. Everyone seems to worship a guy like Joe Mauer. I'm sure those sabremetric stats you lend so much credence in say he's great. However, when I watch him play, I see a powerless black hole in the #3 spot in the order. I see a mediocre game caller and a guy who lets way too many balls go between his legs. I see a giant rally killer in the middle of the lineup that always finds a way to ground into a double play when the Twins need runs the most.A few things. First, the guy's initial e-mail led off with: "Usually your blogs are great. They make a lot of sense. I agree with the majority of them." Seriously. Things were going smoothly until "however" and then it fell apart in a hurry. Beyond that, someone suggesting that "all you do is kiss Ron Gardenhire's ass" is spectacularly amusing to me and probably to anyone who's read this blog for any length of time. As you might guess, our e-mailer began reading the blog last week after hearing me on KFAN. Brian Bannister feels nervous over breakfast. And when Bannister feels nervous, he goes to the numbers. In rough times, he has always found comfort in numbers. "Look at my xFIP," he is saying as he pulls out a few pages he printed off the Internet site, "The Hardball Times." ... At the moment--it is Thursday morning, just 36 hours before what might be the most important start of Brian Bannister's still budding career--he is dying to understand what the heck has happened to him.Brian Bannister has gone 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA against the Twins, but one of my rules is that whenever a stat-head pitcher uses a website co-created by me to analyze his performance via one of my go-to stats and gets an article written about his doing so by always awesome Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski, I'm willing to overlook his beating my favorite team. Pat Neshek and Bannister really ought to hang out. As someone who grew up wanting to write for a newspaper and ended up making a living online, I've been fascinated with the rapidly changing media landscape. Because of that fascination it wasn't so long ago that this space was regularly filled with news of the latest print-to-web switches taking place across the country, but over the past couple years newspaper departures have become so common that it now hardly seems like news at all. Good luck, Roch. Paul Byrd ... credited former major leaguer and current Twins broadcaster Bert Blyleven for a new grip on his slider that resulted in added effectiveness against left-handers. Blyleven's advice pertained to the curveball he threw in his long career, but Byrd applied it to a slider because he doesn't throw a curve. "I struck out three left-handers with it," he said.Interestingly, the new-and-improved Paul Byrd is scheduled to face the Twins this weekend. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Open Chat: Trade Deadline DayThere are a few Twins rumors swirling around as this afternoon's trade deadline approaches, and for anyone interested in keeping up with the moves and endless speculation my advice is to abandon work and spend your day hitting "reload" on Rotoworld's constantly updated player news page and the blogs run by Joe Christensen and LaVelle E. Neal III (whom I spotted toting a notebook, wearing a suit, and literally running away from the Metrodome while attending last night's game. LEN3, on the move!). Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Twins Notes: Casilla, Slowey, Hawkins, Ruiz, and MorneauAfter a forgettable 2007 season and putrid 32-game stretch at Triple-A to begin this year, Casilla was called up from Rochester in mid-May and quickly took over as the everyday second baseman while helping to jump-start the offense. He provided the lineup with a speedy, patient, switch-hitting on-base threat in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, batting .313/.351/.424 with 19 extra-base hits and a 25-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio while driving in or scoring 77 runs in 62 games.  With Casilla out indefinitely the Twins will make Nick Punto the starting second baseman while playing Brendan Harris at shortstop. That's backward in the sense that Punto has significantly more range and is simply a better defensive shortstop, but Ron Gardenhire feels that Harris' inability to consistently turn double plays as a second baseman makes him a better option at shortstop, poor range and all. To fill Casilla's spot on the roster, the Twins have activated Adam Everett from the DL.Everett has been out since mid-May with a shoulder injury and was on the verge of being designated for assignment before news of Casilla's injury hit. Now he'll rejoin the team as a reserve while trying to show that his shoulder is healthy after the once-elite defender struggled to make even routine throws early this season. A healthy Everett can make up for his awful bat with his great glove and be a decent option at shortstop, but he's useless at less than full strength. Casilla will definitely be missed.  Slowey also tossed a complete-game shutout against the Brewers on June 29 and is now tied for the league lead as one of just five AL pitchers to have two such outings this season. If you're curious, Scott Baker has one complete-game shutout in 64 career starts, Livan Hernandez hasn't had one since July 30, 2004, and Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, and Boof Bonser have zero in 97 starts between them. Here's how Slowey's numbers in the majors compare to his time at Double-A and Triple-A:PA SO% BB% HR% BIPSlowey made a name for himself in the minors with pinpoint control and amazing strikeout-to-walk ratios, and for all the reactionary talk of his supposed lack of an "out-pitch" that's exactly what he's done in the majors. With just 27 walks in 163.1 innings his control has actually been even better than it was in the high minors and while his strikeout rate has fallen 20 percent, it remains above the AL average. A huge increase in homers allowed is the biggest change for Slowey, but that was to be expected. Monday's ground-ball fest against the White Sox not withstanding, he's always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher and warning-track outs in the minors tend to become homers in the majors. From Brad Radke, Johan Santana, and Eric Milton to Slowey, Baker, and Perkins, the Twins' rotation has long been filled with fly-ball pitchers who in turn struggle to keep the ball in the ballpark. Homers are Slowey's biggest weakness, but the many fly balls also help account for his low batting average on balls in play. The Twins are interested in former teammate LaTroy Hawkins to help shore up their bullpen, according to two persons familiar with the situation. Hawkins was designated for assignment Saturday by the Yankees, after they landed reliever Damaso Marte from the Pirates, and the Yankees have 10 days either to trade him or send him through waivers.As noted Monday, Hawkins' ugly ERA this season overstates how poorly he's pitched. A deeper look at his performance shows that he's essentially been Jesse Crain's equal, both this season and for the past four years. Crain is currently the Twins' secondary setup man and has been handed quite a bit of high-leverage work since Pat Neshek's season-ending injury, which suggests that the team could use a similarly effective reliever. He's nowhere near the pitcher he once was, but Hawkins could help. After breaking free from his track record by hitting .340/.434/.481 with 15 extra-base hits and a 36-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 games at Triple-A to begin this year, Span has hit .313/.403/.446 with 10 extra-base hits and a 19-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 36 games in the majors. His trip back to earth likely isn't done yet, but with each game he looks more like a legit leadoff man and less like a fourth outfielder. With Casilla out, the Twins desperately need him to keep getting on base. A 30-year-old veteran of nine seasons and over 3,600 trips to the plate in the minors, Ruiz has yet to get even a sniff of the big leagues despite a .300/.370/.522 career hitting line. ... He has a lengthy track record of success in the minors and looks capable of filling a specific niche in the majors as a right-handed platoon bat, but unfortunately for Ruiz he picked the wrong year to make the Twins.Monroe has hit .202/.274/.405 in 179 plate appearances with the Twins. Ruiz has hit .313/.360/.514 in 442 plate appearances at Triple-A. He's far from a potential star and has plenty of flaws, but Ruiz is on track for his 10th straight season with an OPS above .800 in the minors and would have been a fine fit as a right-handed platoon partner for Jason Kubel at designated hitter. Instead, the Twins spent an extra $3.5 million on Monroe, who's now hit .234/.285/.431 over his last 1,200 plate appearances. Beyond that, Morneau continues to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a remarkably consistent rate. From 2006-2008, he swung at non-strikes 30.7, 31.1, and 30.4 percent of the time. While walking like crazy over the past month, he's swung at pitches outside the strike zone 30.9 percent of the time. Morneau isn't suddenly laying off more non-strikes. Instead, he's being thrown more non-strikes and because he's always avoided swinging at them 70 percent of the time, he's drawing more walks.  Over the past three seasons, 49.1 percent of the pitches thrown to Morneau have been inside the strike zone, but during the past month that number has dropped to just 41.7 percent. One area where he's definitely improved in July is making contact on pitches both inside and outside the strike zone. This month he's connected on 96.0 percent of his zone swings and 70.4 percent of his non-zone swings, both of which are up considerably from his pre-July rates this year and for his career.Morneau has hit .320/.393/.526 with 17 homers, 26 doubles, 48 walks, 64 runs, and 82 RBIs in 106 games. At this same point during his MVP-winning 2006 season, he was hitting .319/.367/.596 with 28 homers, 20 doubles, 30 walks, 62 runs, and 88 RBIs. Given that offense is down seven percent across the league this year compared to 2006--a difference that equals 30 points of OPS or one-third of a run per team, per game--a good argument can be made for his current run being even more impressive. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, July 28, 2008
One More ArmMuch has been made, both here and elsewhere, about how losing Pat Neshek has hurt the Twins' bullpen tremendously. Without Neshek around to put out fires and with Ron Gardenhire choosing not to change his strict usage of Joe Nathan, the rest of the bullpen has taken on added responsibility with mixed results. Since Neshek went down in mid-May, the non-Nathan relievers in the Twins' bullpen have a 4.53 ERA and 137-to-70 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 201 hits in 184.2 innings. Even with Nathan's brilliant work thrown into the mix, the bullpen has a 4.09 ERA in 213 post-Neshek innings. That's certainly not disastrous, but Twins relievers had a 3.42 ERA when Neshek was part of the bullpen and AL relievers as a whole have a 3.92 ERA this season. In other words, without Neshek around the bullpen has declined significantly while being worse than the AL average. That's obviously not a good sign and it's also not something the Twins have had to deal with recently. A huge part of the Twins' success this decade has come from outstanding, deep bullpens featuring an excellent closer and multiple quality setup men. Because of that they haven't had a bullpen ERA above 3.99 since 2001, posting an average ERA of 3.59 during the past six seasons. Unfortunately, since losing Neshek nearly three months ago the bullpen has been mediocre at best and ranks as arguably the Twins' worst relief corps since Gardenhire took over as manager. Ideally the Twins would acquire a top-notch setup man to replace Neshek, pushing the other relievers back into their previous, lower-leverage roles. That's a possibility with a few days remaining prior to the July 31 trading deadline, but Jon Rauch and Damaso Marte are already off the market and it's unlikely that the Twins will meet the asking prices for someone like Huston Street or Brian Fuentes. Instead, the Twins figure to stand pat, call up a reliever from Triple-A, or go after an inexpensive veteran.  Standing pat would leave Nathan closing, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain as the primary setup men, and Dennys Reyes as the situational left-hander, with Craig Breslow, Brian Bass, and Boof Bonser in low-leverage roles. No bullpen with Nathan in the ninth inning can be that bad, Guerrier is a solid setup man, and Bonser still has a chance to be useful in relief, but that's not really a confidence-inspiring group and doesn't look particularly capable of being an elite bullpen down the stretch.A call-up from Triple-A would seemingly point to Francisco Liriano, who racked up nine strikeouts last night and has been screaming for a promotion via his recent performance. He's 10-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 80-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71 innings spread over his last 11 starts, but the Twins have indicated that they don't want to use him as a reliever. Instead, if Liriano rejoins the rotation that would likely lead to the Twins shifting Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, or Livan Hernandez to the bullpen. Hernandez hasn't worked in relief since his MLB debut in 1996 and opponents have clobbered him to the tune of .336/.363/.500, so he wouldn't be any more bullpen help than Bass. Blackburn has more bullpen experience than Hernandez and would obviously be a better bet, but pitching to contact isn't a great fit in the late innings. Perkins' first 24 big-league appearances came out of the bullpen after he was strictly a starter in the minors, but Reyes and Breslow have been solid getting lefties out anyway. Beyond calling up Liriano to start while moving Hernandez, Blackburn, or Perkins to relief, the staff at Rochester includes quite a few potential bullpen candidates in Bobby Korecky, Philip Humber, Danny Graves, Tim Lahey, Mariano Gomez, Ricky Barrett, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Casey Daigle. Neshek showed two years ago that a reliever can come up from Triple-A and immediately thrive in a high-leverage role, but unfortunately there's no Neshek at Rochester this season: PA FIP SO% BB%If you're curious, Neshek had a 1.95 ERA and 87-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 60 innings at Triple-A when the Twins called him up in mid-2006. That adds up to a 2.48 FIP, which is 13 percent better than anyone on the above list has managed this season. Of course, there's no shame in a Triple-A reliever being worse than Neshek and Korecky's 2.85 FIP at Rochester is still plenty solid. Korecky has a 3.35 ERA and 51-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53.2 innings as Rochester's closer.  He also has a similarly strong minor-league track record in previous seasons and held his own in nine games with the Twins earlier this year, so if they want to add a bullpen arm from Triple-A it should be Korecky. With that said, he's more middle man than setup man, so there likely won't be any filling of Neshek's shoes. Gomez and Barrett would be options as situational left-handers if the Twins didn't already have Reyes and Breslow, and Lahey doesn't project as more than a decent middle reliever.Cali and Daigle have ugly stats in brief MLB stints and are pretty standard organizational filler at this point, DePaula has fallen apart after previously looking like a decent relief prospect, and Humber has been a huge disappointment since coming over in the Johan Santana trade. Graves is a recognizable name because of his two All-Star appearances as the Reds' closer, but he's now 33 years old, hasn't had success in the majors since 2004, and has been anything but impressive at Rochester. Rochester is home to no shortage of potential middle relievers and mop-up men--which is yet another reason why hanging onto Bass all season makes such little sense--but unless the Twins change their mind about Liriano's short-term role Korecky is probably the only option there for adding a potential impact bullpen arm for the stretch run (and it's debatable if he even qualifies). Similarly, while dealing for Street or Fuentes is likely too expensive, acquiring a useful veteran arm shouldn't be too difficult. Whether via call-up or trade it'll be very tough to bring in someone dependable and durable enough to supplant Guerrier as the primary setup man, but adding someone serviceable enough to be a viable alternative to Crain as the secondary setup man is very much doable. Crain has a 4.21 career FIP and his 4.00 mark this season ranks 90th among MLB relievers with at least 30 innings. His xFIP, which takes FIP a step further by normalizing home-run rate, is even higher at 4.48. While useful, relievers with a 4.00-4.50 FIP simply aren't all that difficult to find. For instance, LaTroy Hawkins was designated for assignment by the Yankees this weekend. During his final two seasons with the Twins and first season with the Cubs, Hawkins was one of the best relievers in baseball, with a 2.22 ERA and 207-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 239.2 innings. Since then he's been merely a decent middle reliever, with a 4.27 ERA and 122-to-72 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 213 innings. YEARS PA ERA FIP SO% BB%Hawkins is a 35-year-old shell of his former self--his strikeouts have fallen 38 percent and his walks have risen 79 percent--but over the past four seasons he's still been Crain's equal. Even now, while posting a 5.71 ERA that convinced the Yankees to cut him loose, Hawkins has 4.11 FIP (compared to 4.00 for Crain) and 4.49 xFIP (compared to 4.48 from Crain). Contending teams cutting relievers whose secondary numbers are nearly identical to your No. 2 setup man is a sign that an upgrade is doable: PA FIP xFIP SO% BB% GB% FBMPHThey both issue a walk eight percent of the time while working with an average fastball of 92-94 miles per hour. Crain misses about 30 percent more bats, Hawkins induces about 25 percent more ground balls, and the end result (if you're smart enough to look beyond ERA) is almost identical. The point here isn't necessarily that the Twins should try to bring Hawkins back--although it's not a bad idea--but rather that finding another competent arm for the bullpen could be plenty helpful and is very feasible. LATROY HAWKINSHawkins can be had for next-to-nothing, relievers like him are readily available, Korecky is waiting at Triple-A for his next chance, and Perkins or Blackburn could be added to the bullpen if the Twins get around to calling up Liriano. Replacing Neshek will be impossible without busting the bank for a guy like Street and even adding a true late-inning arm probably isn't doable unless they decide to let Liriano relieve, but the bullpen could use another serviceable, non-Bass option and that's not too hard to find. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Ben Revere, CF 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Angel Morales, CF 5. Shooter Hunt, SP 6. Danny Valencia, 3B 7. Anthony Swarzak, SP 8. Tyler Robertson, SP 9. Jeff Manship, SP 10. Jose Mijares, RP 11. Chris Parmelee, RF 12. Kevin Mulvey, SP 13. Carlos Gutierrez, SP 14. David Bromberg, SP 15. Deolis Guerra, SP 16. Michael McCardell, SP 17. Luke Hughes, 3B 18. Robert Delaney, RP 19. Anthony Slama, SP 20. Steven Tolleson, SS 21. Joe Benson, CF 22. Alex Burnett, SP 23. Trevor Plouffe, SS 24. Deibinson Romero, 3B 25. Brian Duensing, SP 26. Rene Tosoni, RF 27. Dustin Martin, CF 28. David Winfree, RF 29. Jason Pridie, CF 30. Philip Humber, SP 31. Jonathan Waltenbury, 1B 32. Tyler Ladendorf, SS 33. Steve Singleton, 2B 34. Oswaldo Sosa, SP 35. Bobby Lanigan, SP 36. Reggie Williams, 2B 37. Daniel Ortiz, RF 38. Danny Rams, C 39. Dan Osterbrock, SP 40. Charles Nolte, RP |