AaronGleeman.com
Friday, August 08, 2008

Link-O-Rama

  • My first attempt at publicly shaming myself into re-starting a weight-loss plan failed, as displaying my complete lack of progress via the sidebar's Fat-O-Meter apparently wasn't sufficiently motivating. Sadly I'm still way too fat after gaining back a big chunk of the 90-plus pounds that were shed a couple years ago, so it's time to give the public humiliation angle a second chance. My current plan is to update the Fat-O-Meter every morning, which will hopefully provide the extra push needed to keep me on track.

    My latest weight-loss effort kicked off Monday and I'm already down a half-dozen pounds, so for now at least my spirits are high enough to be optimistic. My kitchen is once again filled with relatively healthy food and the dust has been removed from my elliptical machine, so we'll see. Unfortunately having lost 90 pounds previously may actually work against me now, because it's incredibly depressing to know that you ate away all that hard work and must climb the mountain all over again.

    Those of you who couldn't possibly care less about my weight can avoid the topic by averting your gaze from the relatively small area on the sidebar. Those of you who are interested in my progress can keep updated daily and are encouraged to send me tersely worded e-mails if the Fat-O-Meter stalls or starts going in the wrong direction. Oh, and if you have any low-calorie food recommendations that a person completely incapable of cooking can handle, feel free to pass them along.


  • Evidence of being artificially enhanced seems to run in the Bonds family.


  • If you've ever wanted to see Joe Mauer wearing a top hat and bow-tie while standing next to the guy who sings "The Joe Mauer Theme" song ... well, it's your lucky day.


  • Comment of the Week, courtesy of a guy named "Niko" from the comments section of a LaVelle E. Neal III blog entry asking his readers at the Minneapolis Star Tribune's website to suggest other sites that should be added to his blogroll:
    get rid of Gleeman's, he's the biggest waste of space in blogging. the guy thinks he knows it all, but his lack of knowledge is ridiculous, and the press he gets around the twin cities is appalling.
    Amen.


  • Tom Froemming is attempting to put together a comprehensive directory of Minnesota sports blogs, which should come in handy for the people who e-mail me asking to recommend Timberwolves and Vikings blogs. So far there are 77, 29 of which focus on the Twins and one of which focuses half on the Twins and half on Keeley Hazell (although not this week, as my Hazell scouts failed to send in a single link). Once LEN3 rids himself of the scourge that is a link here, he should check out Froemming's list.


  • As the St. Paul Pioneer Press notes--"reports" seemed like way too strong a word--one of the Vikings "estimates that he is one of the top 100 Guitar Hero players in the world." You get exactly one guess which position he plays:


    "Amazing! He hits every note, doesn't miss."


  • One week after failing to acquire LaTroy Hawkins for what likely would have been little more than a marginal prospect, the Twins watched yesterday as an even better veteran reliever switched teams at a reasonable cost. Chad Bradford was sent from the Orioles to the Rays for a player to be named later, and because Tampa Bay has the AL's second-best record that means the Twins failed to even submit a waiver claim for him despite obvious bullpen problems.

    A side-arming right-hander who induces an extreme number of ground balls, Bradford has a 3.31 ERA in 486.1 career innings, including a 2.45 mark this year. He's owed $1.2 million for the rest of 2008 (about what the Twins saved by dumping Livan Hernandez) and will make a very palatable $3.5 million next season. Over the past three years, Bradford has a 2.96 ERA and 3.14 FIP. During that same span, Matt Guerrier has a 3.19 ERA and 4.25 FIP, while Jesse Crain has a 3.70 ERA and 3.87 FIP.


  • Suffice it to say that Jim Caple of ESPN.com (and formerly the Pioneer Press) agrees with me about what the save statistic has done to bullpens.


  • Shockingly, no one from the comments section here was featured in this article.


  • After months of extremely careful consideration my spectacular(ly awful) beard has been shaved into a thoroughly mediocre goatee, although this look might be next on the agenda.


  • Yesterday afternoon the Mets' bullpen continued their season-long habit of blowing leads for Johan Santana. Scott Schoeneweis serving up a mammoth homer to Jody Gerut marked the sixth time in 24 starts that Santana has seen a potential victory wiped away by the bullpen, with five of those would-be wins vanishing in the ninth inning. Santana is just 9-7 despite a 2.85 ERA that ranks fifth in the NL, thanks largely to getting stuck with seven no-decisions in starts where he's allowed two runs or fewer.


  • Given the current state of the newspaper world, for some reason it amuses me that the Star Tribune felt the need to send Jim Souhan to China to cover the Olympics. After all, what would the Olympics be without poultry humor and decade-old pop-culture references. Thankfully, Souhan's colleague Patrick Reusse has remained stateside in order to write his 50th consecutive column on golf.


  • It may not seem like it based on this gorgeous photo of him, but Artie Lange and rehab go together like peanut butter and jelly (or bloggers and parents' basements). "Fiyah!"


  • For those of you who are up early this morning, consider tuning into KFAN radio at around 8:00 a.m. to hear my weekly segment on "The Power Trip Morning Show" with Mike Morris, Cory Cove, and Chris Hawkey. You can listen online by clicking here and we usually take a bunch of phone-in questions.

    UPDATE: That was interesting. My segment on KFAN got pushed back 25 minutes or so because Joe Rogan of UFC, News Radio, Fear Factor, and stand-up comedy fame showed up at the studio early to talk about Brock Lesnar's fight Saturday night. I'm a big Rogan fan and he was fantastic on the air, so it was an honor (relatively speaking) to get bumped for him.



  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Eric Hutchinson doing an acoustic version of "Rock & Roll" while standing by himself against a wall at some radio station:




  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Thursday, August 07, 2008

    Twins Notes: Washed Up, Called Up, and Used Up

  • Mercifully designated for assignment last week after posting a 5.48 ERA in 23 starts with the Twins, Livan Hernandez was claimed off waivers by the Rockies yesterday. After trying unsuccessfully to get something in return for Hernandez, the Twins decided to simply let the Rockies assume the remaining $1.7 million on his contract. Unfortunately the Twins weren't able to keep Hernandez in the AL, where they could have potentially faced him down the stretch.

    On the other hand, dumping a washed-up veteran right-hander on the Rockies is quickly becoming an annual tradition. Last August the Twins pawned Ramon Ortiz off on the Rockies, somehow managing to get Matt Macri in return before Ortiz predictably posted a 7.62 ERA in Colorado. Ortiz fetching a fairly useful player in Macri would seemingly suggest that Hernandez could bring back a marginal prospect, but ditching him and getting a rebate is certainly return enough. Good luck on Planet Coors, Livan.


  • After signing one-year deals that drew tons of criticism in this space Hernandez and Ortiz had eerily similar Twins careers, getting off to solid starts that briefly made me look silly before completely falling apart. Ortiz signed for $3.1 million and posted a 3.80 ERA through seven starts, but had a 6.75 ERA over his next 46 innings and was dumped on August 15. Hernandez signed for $5 million and posted a 3.88 ERA through 10 starts, but had a 6.87 ERA over his next 75 innings and was dumped on August 1.

    If there's a lesson to be learned it's that you can only out-run your track record for so long before being a horrible pitcher catches up to you. In both cases a veteran pitcher had seen his performance decline significantly over the course of multiple seasons and was a poor bet to be successful for the Twins. In both cases the Twins ignored that and signed them anyway, wasting millions of dollars and dozens of starts before realizing their mistake and cutting bait.

    Perhaps more than any other team the Twins should know that talent trumps experience, yet they go for the washed-up veteran route every season. This year it was spending $9 million on Hernandez and Craig Monroe, who both struck me as poor bets and obvious mistakes. Last year it was Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Rondell White, and Jeff Cirillo, each of whom worked out poorly. In 2006 it was Tony Batista and Juan Castro, who were predictably disasters. At some point it'd be nice to see a lesson learned.


  • Hoping that Hernandez stayed in the AL to face the Twins was mostly a joke, but maybe not totally. Released by the Twins in June, Juan Rincon signed a minor-league deal with the Indians two weeks later, was called up from Triple-A shortly after that, and served up a homer to Denard Span in the eighth inning Sunday. Some might say that was the first time Rincon has helped the Twins since 2006 and he has a 7.45 ERA in eight appearances with the Indians.


  • It took five months longer than it probably should have and involved paying Monroe over $21,000 per plate appearance to hit .202/.274/.405, but the Twins finally followed my advice from way back in spring training and gave Randy Ruiz an opportunity. Part of my objection to handing Monroe $3.82 million was that guys like Ruiz are freely available and capable of filling the same role for $3.5 million less. Here was my take when Ruiz failed to make the Opening Day roster despite a strong spring:
    A 30-year-old veteran of nine seasons and over 3,600 trips to the plate in the minors, Ruiz has yet to get even a sniff of the big leagues despite a .300/.370/.522 career hitting line. ... He has a lengthy track record of success in the minors and looks capable of filling a specific niche in the majors as a right-handed platoon bat, but unfortunately for Ruiz he picked the wrong year to make the Twins.

    I'd argue that signing a scrap-heap bat like Ruiz for $350,000 makes more sense than handing $3.8 million to Monroe, but that ship sailed months ago. ... Strictly in terms of hitting ability the only real difference between Monroe and Ruiz is that the Tigers gave Monroe a chance in 2003 after he put up a string of impressive seasons in the minors. Ruiz has yet to get that chance and probably won't.
    On one hand it's frustrating that the Twins ignored Monroe's recent track record and basically wasted $3.5 million on another mediocre veteran who was so obviously washed up that even a lowly blogger could spot it. On the other hand, the Twins deserve at least some credit for eventually realizing their mistake with Monroe and cutting him loose while giving Ruiz his first chance in the big leagues after a decade of putting up big numbers in the minors.

    At 30 years old Ruiz is far from a potential star and his considerable flaws have conspired to keep him from the majors, but when the role simply requires platooning at designated hitter against left-handers and providing a decent bat off the bench, he's been capable of filling it for years now. Ruiz has spent a decade in the minors, posting an OPS above .800 every single year, and has hit .302/.369/.524 in over 4,000 career plate appearances, including .320/.366/.536 in 111 games at Triple-A this season.


  • It's been clear for a while now that the Twins' bullpen is shaky at best, but back-to-back implosions against the worst team in the league likely hammered the point home for a lot of people. Pat Neshek's season-ending elbow injury has proven to be a huge blow to the Twins and the bullpen has gradually been unraveling since he went down in mid-May. Ron Gardenhire pleaded for a 12- and even 13-man pitching staff, but fixing a bullpen is something that can't be done with quantity over quality.

    In theory a seven-man bullpen makes sense when a relief corps is struggling, but having two different mop-up men and a pair of situational left-handers doesn't keep Gardenhire from running the most reliable setup man into the ground. Instead, Matt Guerrier gets constant work and Craig Breslow sees action once per week, leaving the Twins' bullpen simultaneously overcrowded and lacking depth as multiple spots are filled with guys who aren't trusted in anything resembling a key spot.

    Things have gotten so bad for the bullpen that starters are now being asked to remain in games longer than they normally would and Gardenhire is finally willing to use closer Joe Nathan is a less rigid role. Both of those changes make plenty of sense despite backfiring in the back-to-back meltdowns against the Mariners, and in fact utilizing Nathan outside of the ninth inning and in more non-save situations is something that I've long been campaigning for in this space. Here's Gardenhire on his new approach:
    I'll take my chances with Nathan. We're going to have to be able to do those things. We're struggling. Nathan is going to have to come in and get some outs in the eighth. That's the way it is going to be from here on out.
    If there's one thing that you'll never see me complain about--and some might suggest that there's truly only one thing--it's the Twins using their best, highest-paid pitcher in the most important spots.


  • Guerrier is clearly showing signs of wearing down, which makes sense given that he's on track to log 85 innings and has appeared in 40 of the team's 78 games since Neshek went down, including working 10 of the past 15 games. Meanwhile, Nathan was used in the eighth inning Tuesday night for just the third time this season, has thrown as many as 20 pitches just three times in the team's last 75 games, and is on pace for a career-low 65 innings.

    Gardenhire has long deserved criticism for failing to take full advantage of Nathan by holding him back for save chances that never materialize no matter how many leads are blown before the ninth inning, which is why it's encouraging to see his mind changing about Nathan's usage even if that change was brought about by the bullpen's struggles. Giving Nathan the occasional five-out save opportunity and letting him pitch in crucial non-save situations is the easiest, most effective way to improve the bullpen.

    Unfortunately, it may also be the only way to avoid Guerrier joining Neshek to the disabled list. Dennys Reyes is only effective against lefties and has been used for an average of 1.8 outs per appearance. Given his lack of workload a backup situational southpaw is usually overkill, which is why Breslow has appeared in just eight games during the past six weeks. Boof Bonser rightfully hasn't earned anyone's trust yet as a reliever, so his workload is sporadic at best and involves primarily mopping up.

    All of which means that if Gardenhire doesn't loosen the reigns on Nathan, he's more or less left to choose between Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Brian Bass for every crucial, non-save situation. And Crain can only be ridden so hard coming off shoulder surgery, which is why Guerrier pitches in nearly every close game and Bass inexplicably leads the league in relief innings while repeatedly being allowed to fail miserably in high-leverage situations that he has no business in.


  • Giving Nathan a longer leash has the potential to make a huge impact while lessening some of the mounting pressure on Guerrier, but even if Gardenhire shocks me by following through on his plans to extend Nathan's usage the Twins are still at least one reliable arm short of a quality bullpen and miles away from matching the outstanding, deep relief corps that they've leaned on so heavily over the past half-dozen seasons.

    My suggestion last week that the Twins should go after LaTroy Hawkins didn't pan out because they were apparently unwilling to part with a marginal prospect for him despite being interested. Hawkins would have helped, but there are plenty of mediocre relievers like him who're readily available and could at least give the Twins another decent arm to rely on. If nothing else Bobby Korecky deserves another chance after posting a 3.38 ERA and 61-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.1 innings at Triple-A.


  • Lost in the back-to-back ugly games from the pitching staff is that the lineup churned out 20 runs in three games against the Mariners. Since scoring just 3.8 runs per game in April to rank as the league's second-worst offense, the Twins have averaged 5.5 runs in May, 5.1 runs in June, 5.5 runs in July, and 5.2 runs so far in August. Here are the individual hitting numbers for players who've batted at least 100 times since May 1 (sorted by OPS):
                           PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS
    Justin Morneau 378 .328 .405 .532 .937
    Denard Span 129 .318 .411 .505 .916
    Joe Mauer 327 .324 .425 .471 .896
    Jason Kubel 253 .282 .360 .518 .878
    Nick Punto 131 .291 .341 .470 .811
    Alexi Casilla 273 .313 .351 .424 .775
    Delmon Young 326 .300 .347 .417 .764
    Brian Buscher 126 .308 .333 .419 .752
    Brendan Harris 294 .258 .315 .390 .705
    Michael Cuddyer 219 .244 .320 .371 .691
    Craig Monroe 129 .181 .264 .397 .661
    Mike Lamb 165 .253 .291 .353 .644
    Carlos Gomez 347 .257 .296 .346 .642
    Seeing that type of production from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer should come as no surprise and Span has rightfully received a ton of credit for his emergence over the past month, but Jason Kubel has sort of flown under the radar. Or at least he did until going 4-for-5 with a pair of homers and a double Tuesday night. Together they've given the Twins four hitters with an OPS between .878 and .937, which goes a long way toward explaining the lineup's extended breakout.

    Since May 1 there are 15 hitters in the AL who've posted an OPS above .875 while coming to the plate at least 250 times, and the Twins have three of them batting 3-4-5 in the lineup behind a rookie with a .400 on-base percentage who keeps proving me wrong by showing no signs of slowing down. Hell, even Nick Punto is back to hitting like it's 2006 again and Michael Cuddyer is finally nearing a return. Between the strong lineup and shaky bullpen, this definitely isn't your older brother's Twins team.



  • Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.


    Wednesday, August 06, 2008

    Ick

    Sorry, but there's just no way I'm writing about that. Or that.

    Blogging will resume when the Twins' streak of making me throw up at midnight stops. Or tomorrow. Whichever comes first. Oh, and this didn't help any either. Yuck. Here, listen to this. You'll feel better.


    Monday, August 04, 2008

    Liriano's Return: Take Two

    "I was really nervous. I don't know why. It's been a long time." - Francisco Liriano

    When Francisco Liriano returned from Tommy John surgery on April 13 to take the mound against the Royals for his first MLB start since September of 2006, he predictably struggled with both velocity and command. His average fastball clocked in at just 90.2 miles per hour and failed to crack 90 one-third of the time. His once-unhittable slider never registered higher than 82 miles per hour on MLB.com's radar gun and averaged just 80.7.

    Liriano also struggled to find the plate against Kansas City, throwing just 51 of 90 pitches for strikes, walking a career-high five of the 25 batters he faced, and allowing five runs while failing to make it out of the fifth inning. He had better results while showing the same decreased velocity and shaky control against the Indians on April 18, but when a disastrous start against the A's followed on April 24 he was demoted back to Triple-A with an ugly 0-3 record, 11.32 ERA, and .366 opponent's batting average.

    Liriano's first few outings at Rochester weren't particularly encouraging, but he eventually got on track about 18 months after surgery. In 11 starts between June and July, Liriano went 10-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 80-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 70.2 innings. Amid complaints that the Twins were keeping him at Rochester longer than necessary and gnashing of teeth over when the team would dump Livan Hernandez from the rotation, Liriano returned to the majors yesterday afternoon against the Indians.

    Six shutout innings later and it looks like Liriano is back for good this time, although he was far from as dominant as the scoreless boxscore line suggests. He struggled to consistently find the plate, tossing first-pitch strikes to just eight of 24 batters, running the count to 3-0 four times, and throwing just 56 of 96 pitches for strikes overall. He also labored after a quick first two innings, using 77 pitches in his last four frames and failing to strike out any of the final 10 batters he faced.

    While six shutout innings and a victory that propelled the Twins into first place for the first time since May 13 are results that could have been lifted straight from the middle of Liriano's amazing 2006 run, in truth he barely resembled the pitcher who overpowered the league as a rookie. Of course, Liriano also barely resembled the pitcher who was a complete mess in April and there's no doubt that he's made tremendous strides in the months since.

    In his first post-surgery outing, MLB.com's pitch-tracking system clocked Liriano's average fastball at 90.2 miles per hour and showed that every third fastball was in the 80s. Yesterday his average fastball was 91.0 miles per hour and just seven of 59 fastballs failed to touch at least 90. An increase of 0.8 miles per hour on his average fastball may not seem like much and made it clear that recent reports about his velocity were obviously exaggerated.

    Two weeks ago LaVelle E. Neal III reported that his "fastball averaged 93 miles per hour and topped out at 95" in a start at Triple-A. He also quoted Rochester manager Stu Cliburn as saying that he "hit 99 on the gun" on one pitch. Meanwhile, yesterday Liriano averaged 91 miles per hour, topped out at 93, and came nowhere near 99. Sadly that's nothing new, as this winter was filled with reports of Liriano supposedly throwing in the mid-90s before he arrived at spring training working in the high-80s.

    No longer having to rely on reports filled with hype and jacked-up velocity readings, we now know that Liriano's fastball has improved 0.8 miles per hour since April while remaining 3.7 MPH off compared to his 2006 heater. As Ron Gardenhire put it after watching Liriano work between 87-93 miles per hour yesterday: "This first year [after surgery] is kind of hit and miss. Maybe next year you're going to see everything step up even more. Right now, I think [he's missing] velocity more than anything."

    If nothing else he's had a tangible change in velocity heading in the right direction, however minimal. Plus, more encouraging than the relatively modest gains on his fastball is that Liriano's slider looked much different than the curve-like breaking ball that he shied away from using in April. On April 13 his slider averaged 80.7 miles per hour and had very little bite to it, but yesterday's version averaged 83.6 miles per hour while diving out of the strike zone often enough to bring back memories of 2006.

    At his peak Liriano's slider averaged 87.7 MPH, leaving yesterday's version even further away from his 2006 levels than his fastball. However, as with the fastball Liriano is clearly moving in the right direction with his slider and even 4.1 MPH less than his 2006 velocity the pitch was tough to hit. Four of his five strikeouts came on sliders, as he got one left-handed hitter (Grady Sizemore) and three right-handed hitters (Ben Francisco, Kelly Shoppach, Andy Gonzalez) to swing over the pitch with two strikes.

    With that said, a depleted Indians lineup featuring the likes of Gonzalez, Shoppach, and Jamey Carroll instead of Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Casey Blake is hardly a tough test at this point. "As we go along, we're going to see some veteran teams that don't swing," Gardenhire said. "They're going to take pitches, and those are going to be challenges for him to throw more pitches over the plate." While true, he'll get another favorable matchup against an even lesser lineup Saturday versus the Royals.

    The good news is that Liriano's second return to the majors was a massive improvement over his first attempt and the pitcher who took the mound yesterday afternoon is clearly capable of having long-term success. The bad news is that pitchers often return from Tommy John surgery throwing even harder than before and by the 20-month mark many of them have regained their pre-surgery form, but Liriano has done neither and now has question marks attached to his future upside.

    Compared to the pitcher who was rushed back in April he was hugely improved and compared to the washed-up veteran who was bumped from the rotation he represents a sizable upgrade. However, compared to the guy who was arguably baseball's best pitcher in 2006 he still has a very long way to go even after taking a big first (or second) step yesterday. As Nick Punto put it after watching Liriano's first win since July 23, 2006: "Liriano at 80 percent is better than a lot of pitchers in the big leagues."



    Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.