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Friday, August 15, 2008
Link-O-RamaOn a sun-dappled Friday on the baseball field behind Brookfield East High School, Braun took on what even he admitted beforehand might be a more daunting task: trading lines with supermodel and magazine cover girl Marisa Miller in a viral video for a new Remington men's hair-care product.Rather than make some sort of snide comment, here's a photo from the commercial shoot:  Cute dog. Also, there's this one: Mazel tov.HAZEL PARK, MI--In a statement made to reporters earlier this afternoon, local idiot Brandon Mylenek, 26, announced that at approximately 2:30 a.m. tonight, he plans to post an idiotic comment beneath a video on an Internet website.Not mentioned in the above excerpt is that Brandon Mylenek believes the Twins should trade Brian Bass and Adam Everett for Albert Pujols, and thinks "this blog used to be good, but now it sucks." "Tell them who that is. That's Marty Cordova, 1995 American League Rookie of the Year. Woo hoo!" Sadly, Mac died over the weekend at the age of 50. For an interesting look at Mac's life, check out Alan Sepinwall's well-done 2002 article about him in the Newark Star-Ledger. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.     
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Twins Notes: Breakouts, Overuse, Upgrades, and No Such ThingYoung failed to homer in the Twins' first 61 games and spent most of the first 118 games coming up empty in crucial spots, compiling -1.44 Win Probability Added to rank third-worst in the league among outfielders behind only Carlos Gomez and Melky Cabrera. Not only do a pair of game-changing blasts against the Yankees go a long way toward wiping away those memories--Young couldn't hold back a huge smile while rounding the bases Tuesday night--it also wiped away much of that negative WPA.  In two games Young went from -1.44 WPA to -0.73 WPA, making half of his negative contribution for the entire season vanish. Of course, his improved performance goes well beyond the past two games. Through the Twins' first 61 games he hit .270/.321/.349 with zero homers in 249 plate appearances. In the team's 59 games since then he's hit .315/.355/.477 with seven homers in 212 plate appearances. His overall numbers (.290/.336/.407) remain mediocre, but Young's turnaround has been dramatic:PA AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoP SO% BB%Young has upped his batting average by 45 points while doubling his power and improving his overall production by 25 percent. Interestingly, his strikeout rate has stayed identical during the improvement while his walk rate has fallen through the floor. When he was struggling overall Young showed vastly improved plate discipline compared to his hacktastic rookie season in Tampa Bay, but he's drawn a grand total of five non-intentional walks in 212 plate appearances while thriving. It's been a tale of two seasons for Young and certainly it'd be nice to think that what he's shown over the past 10 weeks is more indicative of what the Twins will get in the future than what he showed during the first 10 weeks. However, 59 good games is still a very small sample of playing time in the grand scheme of things and Young's overall performance this season has been eerily similar to the numbers that he posted for the Rays last year: YEAR PA AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoP SO% BB% GB%There's plenty of reason to get excited about Young's recent play and certainly as a 22-year-old who many people feel has significant long-term upside it's easy to view what he's done over the past 59 games as sustainable improvement. On the other hand, at the end of the day a season is 162 games full of ups and downs, and Young's overall production this year hasn't really been meaningfully different than his overall production last year. Either way, it's very nice to see him hitting and hitting for power. Prior to getting a much-needed day off yesterday Guerrier had worked 43 of the team's 84 games since Neshek went down, including 13 of the past 21 games. That's an 85-appearance pace since Neshek's injury and a 100-appearance pace over the past month. Short of some kind of crazy, Mike Marshall-like usage, that's what "overuse" looks like for a reliever. Ron Gardenhire ran Guerrier into the ground once he couldn't lean on Neshek and now the struggling bullpen's best remaining setup man is a mess. At this point the Twins' bullpen struggles have become so obvious that Patrick Reusse actually took a break from writing 50 consecutive columns about golf to chime in on the subject, yet Nathan is on pace for a career-low 68 innings, has averaged just 15 pitches per appearance, and has gone five weeks since throwing even 20 pitches in a game. Underusing Nathan has led to overusing Guerrier and that combination has played a big part in the bullpen's collapse. 2005-2007 PA ERA FIP 2008 PA ERA FIPAt worst Bradford has been every bit as effective as the Twins' two main setup men, and based on FIP he's been better than both of them from 2005-2007 and this year. He's arguably an upgrade over Crain and Guerrier, let alone Brian Bass and Boof Bonser. What makes the decision to pass on Bradford even more frustrating is that the Twins reportedly claimed Alan Embree off waivers this week. Embree is five years older and far less effective than Bradford, in addition to being left-handed. 2005-2007 PA ERA FIP 2008 PA ERA FIPNot only has Bradford been significantly better than Embree this season and during the previous three years, over the past eight seasons few relievers have consistently posted lower ERA or FIP totals than the side-arming ground-ball machine. It's a moot point because the A's pulled Embree back off waivers rather than send him to the Twins, but passing up a very good right-handed reliever while making a play for a mediocre left-handed reliever is misguided to say the least. Everett said his goal upon returning to the team was to prove that he finally was healthy. His shoulder had bothered him from the get-go. He called it a "stress reaction" in his right shoulder. That means it was this close to being a stress fracture, which is a very bad thing.Apparently Tom Powers doesn't speak to those same "trainers in other sports" that Souhan does. And sadly Everett's throwing problems haven't gone away even though "there's no such thing" as his injury. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Won't Get Fooled Again (Kielty for Stewart, Revisited)I'll tip my hat to the new constitution - The Who, "Won't Get Fooled Again"News of the Twins inking Bobby Kielty to a minor-league contract brings back all sorts of memories for me and this blog. Five years ago, in the early days of this blog, Kielty was the subject of perhaps my very first campaign for freedom. A switch-hitter with good power, excellent plate discipline, and a strong minor-league resume, he hit .269/.375/.444 with 23 homers, 61 total extra-base hits, and a 147-to-102 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 750 plate appearances as a part-time player for the Twins. That's my kind of player and so this blog featured regular calls for the Twins to "Free Bobby Kielty!" They eventually did in July of 2003, trading him to the Blue Jays for Shannon Stewart in a deal that struck me at the time as "horrible." Kielty was a 26-year-old switch-hitter with a .269/.375/.444 career line who played solid defense in all three outfield spots and cost little. To a 20-year-old blogger who loved young hitters who got on base and hit homers, he seemed like someone to build around, not trade away. Plus, Stewart was a 29-year-old impending free agent whose .299/.365/.447 career line was so close to Kielty's .269/.375/.444 mark that an upgrade seemed unlikely, let alone an upgrade big enough to warrant giving up Kielty's entire career for a half-season rental. Why trade a good, young, cheap player for a veteran version who doesn't appear to be any better, makes far more money, and can become a free agent at season's end? It seemed to me five years ago like "a horrendously awful trade" and five years later the logic involved in coming to that admittedly hyperbolic conclusion still strikes me as fairly sound. Of course, logical or not my reaction (or perhaps overreaction) to the Kielty-Stewart trade is something that longtime fans (and critics) of this blog can point to as a moment where my analysis turned out to be completely wrong. The first of many, some might say.  Stewart indeed supplied a short-term upgrade over Kielty, hitting .322/.384/.470 in 65 games to help lead the Twins to their second straight division title. He was rightfully credited with jump-starting the lineup from the leadoff spot and wrongfully viewed by some misguided voters as a "good story" MVP candidate based on a strong but unspectacular half-season for a playoff-bound team. Meanwhile in Toronto, Kielty hit just .233/.342/.376 in 62 games with the Blue Jays.After hitting the open market that winter Stewart ended up staying in Minnesota, signing a three-year, $18 million contract that ultimately didn't work out all that well for the Twins. He hit just .287/.347/.405 while missing 200 of the team's 486 games (41 percent) with injuries, seeing his stock drop so much that he had to settle for a one-year, $1 million deal from the A's once free agency rolled around for the second time. One very good half-season followed by three mediocre, injury filled years at a total cost of around $20 million wasn't especially good value for a small-payroll team, yet the trade still didn't come back to bite the Twins long term because Kielty never turned into even half the player that he seemed destined to become. Actually, that's not true: Kielty turned into almost exactly half that player. It turns out that while Kielty was a switch-hitter, his bat proved everyday-caliber from only the right side of the plate. PA AVG OBP SLG OPSBatting from the left side against right-handed pitchers, he's hit like Nick Punto. Batting from the right side against left-handed pitchers, he's hit like Justin Morneau. Unfortunately for Kielty that's the recipe for a career spent as a part-time player and so despite my optimistic view of his potential five years ago the 509 plate appearances that he got between Minnesota and Toronto in 2003 remains a career-high. And it'll stay that way for good, because Kielty is now fighting just to reclaim a part-time gig. Kielty has yet to stop knocking around southpaws, but he's now 32 years old and injuries limited him to just 101 plate appearances last season before relegating him to the minors this year. Cut by the Red Sox after an uninspiring 28-game stint at Triple-A--despite hitting .333/.485/.625 against lefties--Kielty sat around for a month before hooking back on with the Twins. He'll report to Triple-A and likely just replace Randy Ruiz in the Rochester lineup, but could find himself back in Minnesota. Ruiz is perfectly capable of filling the role of Jason Kubel's platoon partner, but if the Twins decide to add another right-handed bat and Michael Cuddyer's latest injury keeps him sidelined Kielty would be the obvious choice. Either that or they could bring back Stewart again, because in an odd twist of fate on the same day that Kielty re-signed with his original organization Stewart was released by the Blue Jays following an unsuccessful second stint with his original team. SINCE THE JULY 16, 2003 TRADE:Who'd have thought that just five years later the Twins could have both and perhaps want neither. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Twins Notes: Cuddyer, Casilla, Liriano, Everett, and KoreckyCuddyer hasn't ruled himself out for the remainder of the year, optimistically saying over the weekend that he's "expecting to be back" and wants to "contribute in some capacity" even if it means returning for just a handful of September games and a potential playoff run. Of course, when he landed on the DL with a finger injury in June the hope was that Cuddyer could come back within a few weeks, but instead he was on track to return six weeks later before Jones' line drive found him. His impending return had set up Ron Gardenhire for a decision, but now instead of having to squeeze Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez into four lineup spots he'll continue to give the healthy foursome each everyday playing time. It would've been interesting to see who lost at-bats to Cuddyer, because while benching Gomez or even demoting him to Triple-A briefly may have been the obvious move there's a good chance that it wouldn't have been Gardenhire's move. Given his poor pre-injury offense and the huge defensive upgrade that came from replacing him with Span in right field, not getting Cuddyer back perhaps isn't as big a blow as it seems. Waiting for him likely kept the Twins from adding a right-handed bat via trade and his .283/.370/.443 career line versus left-handers definitely would've come in handy, but Randy Ruiz can do a solid job against southpaws anyway and despite his big contract Cuddyer just isn't that great an all-around player against righties. Interestingly, Joe Christensen notes that if Liriano remains on his current schedule 10 of his 11 starts will come against the AL's six worst offenses, with three matchups against Kansas City and two each versus Seattle, Oakland, and Cleveland. Christensen writes that he's "not sure if the Twins purposely planned it this way," but whatever the case it's probably a good thing for Liriano's short- and long-term success. He's definitely setup to thrive. Rather than actually using the team's best, highest-paid pitcher in a crucial eighth-inning jam or in the extra innings of a tie game, Gardenhire let Craig Breslow lose the game in his third inning of work. If you're curious, Nathan last pitched on Friday, when he threw 14 pitches, and threw a grand total of 50 pitches during the first nine days of August. Once again, Gardenhire held him back for a save situation that depending on your point of view either never materialized or emerged full force in the eighth inning. Nathan was all set for his usual three-out, ninth-inning save when two hits off Matt Guerrier, a Dennys Reyes wild pitch, and Adam Everett's two-out throwing error let the lead slip away in the eighth. "I just threw it away," Everett said. "You can slice it and dice it and word it anyway you want, but it cost us the game. You know we got Nathan coming in right there ... so I'll take that one for the team. It stinks, but that's the way it is." Despite a two-month DL stint, Everett's shoulder pretty clearly still isn't right. Of course, Hernandez had a 6.87 ERA since mid-May and failed to make it out of the fifth inning four times in his last 10 starts with the Twins. As the typically criticism-free Associated Press game recap pointed out: "Hernandez had allowed a major league-high 199 hits and .341 opponent batting average before he was waived. A move to Coors Field, coupled with nearly two weeks off, wasn't the antidote to those problems." Shockingly, there really isn't an antidote for "being a horrible pitcher." Righthander Bobby Korecky has been solid as the closer, entering Friday 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 19 saves. He was called up to the Twins briefly in May and pitched 10 1/3 innings--earning a victory over Texas on May 19. The Twins want him to work on his changeup, which he will need in the majors, but it's hard for him to work on the pitch in closing situations.In other words, the bullpen is struggling and Korecky has a 3.29 ERA with a 63-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 63 innings at Triple-A, but he's still there because the Twins want a 29-year-old in his seventh pro season "to work on his changeup." Apparently Brian Bass has mastered his changeup despite using it on just 4.9 percent of his pitches while amassing a 5.01 ERA. Remember when Jason Bartlett got stuck at Rochester supposedly "working on his infield leadership"? Same thing. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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