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Friday, September 26, 2008
First Place!Wow. The lineup with the league's fewest homers goes deep three times in Game 1. The bullpen that's been so shaky for the past four months tosses 10 scoreless innings between Game 2 and Game 3. Carlos Gomez, who came into Game 3 with the AL's lowest OPS, goes 4-for-5 with two triples and a double, and Alexi Casilla, who'd been 29-for-126 (.230) since coming off the disabled list, delivers a walk-off hit in the 10th inning to complete a three-game sweep. And just like that, the Twins are in sole possession of first place for the first time since August 23. When three defensive miscues led to a six-run fourth inning for the White Sox and Kevin Slowey exited after taking a line drive off his wrist, it looked like the Twins were following their unfortunate year-long pattern of slipping up immediately after experiencing tremendous success. Instead, the bullpen locked down the White Sox's lineup and the Twins battled back from a 6-1 deficit, responding with two runs of their own in the bottom of the fourth frame and one more in the sixth to set up the late-inning drama.Up 6-4 with six outs to get, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen turned the game over to his most reliable bullpen duo of setup man Matt Thornton and closer Bobby Jenks, who'd combined for a 2.59 ERA and .211 opponent's batting average in 121.1 innings this year. Brendan Harris led off with a double down the third-base line and Nick Punto advanced him to third base with a ground out, at which point Guillen pulled Thornton for Jenks, who hadn't blown a save since June 4. Gomez greeted Jenks by driving in Harris with a bloop single and then came around to score the tying run in spectacularly thrilling fashion when Denard Span yanked a triple down the first-base line. Gomez looked like Usain Bolt flying around the bases, unleashing the full scope of his amazing wheels before diving into the plate with a completely unnecessary yet somehow fitting slide as the 43,000 fans at the Metrodome exploded. Casilla and Joe Mauer momentarily killed the huge buzz by both failing to knock in Gomez from third base--including a fouled off suicide-squeeze attempt from Casilla--and the game advanced to the ninth tied at 6-6. With no save chance possible, Ron Gardenhire smartly brought in closer Joe Nathan, who shook off his recent shakiness to set down six straight batters in two perfect frames, recording more than three outs for just the fourth time this year and completing two innings for just the second time.With Nathan apparently done despite throwing only 26 pitches and rookie Jose Mijares warming up in the Twins' bullpen, Guillen did what Gardenhire was seemingly unwilling to do and sent Jenks out for a third inning. He retired Harris on a ground out, but walked Punto on four straight pitches. Gomez moved him to second base with a ground out and Punto alertly scampered to third on a wild pitch, putting the game-winning run 90 feet away with two outs. Guillen ordered an intentional walk of Span, which made plenty of sense given that he was 3-for-4 with a pair of extra-base hits on the night to boost his batting average to .299. Plus, Casilla was on deck after striking out against Jenks in an ugly at-bat that left the go-ahead run stranded on third base two innings earlier, making him 2-for-12 with four strikeouts in the series and 18-for-79 (.228) this month. Casilla took a first-pitch fastball right down the middle and then laced a line drive to center field. W L WIN% GB FRIDAY MATCHUP W L ERA xFIPOver the past six years this blog has rarely featured Saturday or Sunday content, but my guess is that tradition will probably be broken this weekend with a new entry or two, so feel free to stop by. You can also check out my weekly Friday morning appearance on KFAN at around eight o'clock to hear me talk Twins with Mike Morris, Cory Cove, and Chris Hawkey on "The Power Trip Morning Show." And come Monday hopefully it'll be time break down the playoff roster and preview the Twins' first-round series. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Twins Take Round 2Lack of power and shoddy bullpen work have been two of the Twins' weaknesses. They rank dead last among AL teams in homers and since Pat Neshek suffered a season-ending arm injury the non-Joe Nathan members of the bullpen have combined for a 4.54 ERA. So naturally in the season's biggest series they hit three homers Tuesday night and got four shutout innings of relief last night. Baseball can be a funny game, but with the Twins now a half-game back in the AL Central you knew that already. Nick Blackburn wriggled out of jams last night despite allowing eight hits and two walks to 23 batters, leaving after five innings with just two runs on the board. For most of the past few months a five-inning start would have preceded a bullpen breakdown, but instead the unlikely trio of Craig Breslow, Boof Bonser, and Jose Mijares each tossed a scoreless frame with a one-run lead to set up Joe Nathan for his 200th career save. Mijares working a 1-2-3 eighth inning was particularly impressive given that he's been in the majors for less than two weeks after making the jump from Double-A and was up against 1,445 career homers in Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Ken Griffey Jr. One bad pitch and the game is tied, yet the 23-year-old rookie who spent half the season rehabbing a broken elbow got Thome to fly out and then induced a pair of ground balls to preserve the 3-2 lead. Nathan looked somewhat shaky in the ninth inning, which has uncharacteristically been the case quite a bit lately, but thanks to Carlos Gomez's sprinting catch of an A.J. Pierzynski drive in the left-center gap he closed out the 86th victory of the season. Facing long odds down 2.5 games with six games to play, the Twins are now one win away from overtaking the White Sox and jumping into the driver's seat for a playoff spot heading into the final weekend. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher facing baseball's most powerful lineup keeping the ball in the ballpark will be a struggle for Slowey, but he's a smart, calm, strike-throwing machine who's been the rotation's second-best starter all season. A victory tonight would be huge, giving the Twins a half-game lead with the Royals coming to town and the White Sox hosting an Indians team that's quietly gone 30-15 since early August. W L WIN% GB Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Twins Take Round 1Prior to last night's series opener, the national media joined local scribes from Chicago and Minnesota in focusing on the power disparity between the White Sox and Twins, and as usual Ozzie Guillen talked about needing to "get those piranhas in a big net" and "put some poison in the water to make their teeth fall out." And rightfully so, because Guillen's team arrived at the Metrodome with an MLB-leading 223 homers, yet had been out-scored by a Twins lineup that boasted the league's fewest long balls. Billed as a matchup pitting speed versus power, Game 1 instead saw the Twins do a good White Sox impression with three homers and six extra-base hits. As the Metrodome crowd of 35,000 used chants to cast their MVP vote for Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel went 3-for-4 with a pair of homers, a triple, and three RBIs to provide more than enough support for Scott Baker's seven innings of one-run ball. For Kubel it was a signature moment in what has been an outstanding, underappreciated season. MVP-caliber years from Morneau and Joe Mauer have carried what is now the highest-scoring Twins offense since 1996 and Denard Span's emergence over the past three months has also been hugely important, but Kubel has quietly been the team's third-best hitter all year. He's hit .276/.340/.480 with 20 homers and 78 RBIs in 499 plate appearances to give the power-starved lineup a second home-run threat alongside (and recently behind) Morneau. Morneau and Kubel have combined for 39 percent of the Twins' homers, going deep 43 times in 1,185 plate appearances while the rest of the team has managed just 68 homers in 4,921 trips to the plate. Leading the league with a .280 batting average overall and hitting .310 with runners in scoring position for the league's highest RISP mark in over three decades go a long way toward explaining the Twins' surprising run production this season, but oddly enough smacking the ball over the fence works too.Baker's effort may get lost in Kubel's big night, but he was fantastic against a team he'd struggled with previously. Baker came into the game sporting a 7.99 ERA in seven career starts versus the White Sox, which perhaps isn't shocking given his extreme fly-ball tendencies and their power. Yet he kept the ball in the ballpark, limiting the White Sox to just five singles and one walk in 26 plate appearances before handing a 9-1 lead over to the bullpen. He's now 10-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 27 starts overall. As the Twins have shown all year momentum in baseball tends not to mean as much as most people would like to believe, but they couldn't have scripted a better way to begin the series and now have just a smidgen of breathing room in case Nick Blackburn's recent struggles continue tonight. If instead he follows Baker's lead with a strong outing and the Twins' bats do some damage against Mark Buehrle, then suddenly the division landscape shifts dramatically heading into Thursday night's series finale. W L WIN% GB Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Setting The StageI've seen Minnesota clinch in our ballpark once. I hope we can clinch in theirs. I like the way they play, but we've got to make sure we're mean and show them we're going to kick their ass as soon as we walk in. Make sure you grab a big net and get those piranhas and put some poison in the water to make their teeth fall out. - Ozzie GuillenBy splitting the four-game set in Tampa Bay the Twins are 2.5 games back in the division heading into the three-game series with the White Sox that begins Tuesday. Once that series is over the Twins have three games left against the Royals, while the White Sox have three games left against the Indians and one makeup game remaining against the Tigers. In other words, to have a realistic shot at the playoffs the Twins need to either win two out of three games from the White Sox or sweep the series. A sweep gives the Twins a half-game lead in the division and makes them clear favorites to win the AL Central, because finishing up with the Royals is easier than facing the Indians and Tigers. Of course, even after winning yesterday the Twins are just 10-18 over the past month, so talking about a potential sweep probably goes beyond wishful thinking. Fortunately, taking two of three games versus Chicago would still leave the Twins with a decent shot at the playoffs. By winning two out of three games against the White Sox the Twins would be 1.5 games back heading into the season's final weekend. If they then sweep the Royals and the Indians sweep the White Sox, the Twins win the division. If they instead sweep the Royals and the Indians take two out of three from the White Sox, then the Tigers-White Sox makeup game is huge. If the Tigers win, the Twins take the division. If the White Sox win, there's a one-game playoff. If the Twins take two out of three from both the White Sox and Royals, they win the division outright if the White Sox lose their final four games and there's a one-game playoff if the White Sox lose three of their final four games. All of that is overly complicated and there are still a ton of different scenarios despite a limited number of remaining games, but for any of it to matter the Twins first need to win at least two out of three games versus the White Sox, at the Metrodome. TUESDAY MATCHUP W L ERA xFIPBoth teams have struggled recently, although over the last 30 games the White Sox are 15-15 while the Twins are just 12-18. However, the Twins are 49-26 (.653) at home this year while the White Sox are just 35-43 (.448) on the road. Thanks to the absence of a dominant or horrible starter in the bunch, the three pitching matchups are all pretty even. As Justin Morneau put it: "This is the chance we wanted. Anything can happen. Now it's up to us. It's going to be a lot of fun, especially if we win all three." Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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