AaronGleeman.com
Friday, December 19, 2008

Link-O-Rama

  • Seth Stohs' self-published Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is now shipping. No one is more devoted to covering the Twins' minor-league system than Seth and there's zero doubt in my mind that anyone who enjoys this blog will enjoy his book, which includes a foreword by Pat Neshek and nearly 200 profiles featuring every significant Twins prospect. Not only is buying the book a great way to learn about Twins prospects, doing so supports the work of someone who's blogged for free since 2003.

    Seriously, for just $12.95 you can get a great book and support a great cause, so please go buy it.


  • If you're ever wondered what Cash Warren sees when he comes home following a long, hard day of doing whatever it is he does, here's your chance. Bastard.


  • Kevin McHale has finally figured out who's responsible for the Timberwolves' awfulness: Bloggers.


  • If you're curious what the oft-mentioned "media room" at the winter meetings looks like, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times snapped the following picture that shows me hard at work (or something):

    You can click on the photo to see a full-sized version and then actually zoom in even further from there, at point you should be able to easily identify me and spot a mid-conversation Peter Gammons chatting away on the opposite side of the room. Baker must have taken that photo early in the morning or late at night, because there were usually at least five times that many reporters in the room filling literally every other chair.


  • Joe Posnanski has fallen even deeper in love with Ron Gardenhire after sitting next to him at lunch.


  • Emily Blunt appears to be a perfectly lovely woman, but it must be rough for John Krasinski to break character after a long day of being paid to flirt with the world's cutest receptionist.


  • In what is sure to be a trend-setting move within the struggling newspaper industry, both the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press announced this week that they will shift resources to the "digital delivery of news" while delivering physical, ink-on-a-page newspapers on just Thursday, Friday, and Sunday:
    [Detroit Media Partnership CEO Dave] Hunke said the moves would allow both papers to maintain their news-gathering forces, shift resources to their Web sites, develop new ways to deliver information digitally, enhance multimedia offerings--and, for the foreseeable future, keep Detroit one of the nation’s few remaining two-newspaper towns.

    The strategy contrasts with significant across-the-board cuts, including sharp newsroom reductions and outsourcing of jobs, at many newspapers struggling to maintain traditional delivery. "There is a day of reckoning coming for newspapers, which in my mind don't change and change rapidly," Hunke said. "That is a way of life that is going to disappear [for some newspapers] as early as this coming year."
    It remains to be seen whether the newspapers in Detroit will be successful with their changes, but they deserve credit for at least attempting to keep up with the rapidly shifting media landscape rather than following in the footsteps of most newspapers by simply clinging to the old way of doing things until it dies completely. Fewer and fewer people are interested in having the previous day's news printed on paper alongside tons of advertisements and dropped on their doorstep, and that trend isn't changing.


  • Charles Barkley is now officially prepared for his upcoming political career:


    And those aren't your average-sized shoes, either.


  • Apparently referring to a former Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com as "sloppy seconds" will cause you to be blackballed from your chosen field of employment, which is an important lesson for everyone.


  • If you've ever wondered what it would look like if four reporters from the Chicago Sun Times dressed up as old-time gangsters for no apparent reason, it's your lucky day. I'd gladly pledge five bucks toward funding a similarly ridiculous photo shoot featuring the Minneapolis Star Tribune sports department, so perhaps newspapers have stumbled upon a much-needed new source of revenue.


  • Some all-time greats like Barry Sanders, Sandy Koufax, and Jim Brown walk away too soon, while others unfortunately stick around well past their prime.


  • Last week the Pittsburgh Post Gazette ran a fairly lengthy article about Baseball Prospectus naming the Pirates medical staff the best in baseball for 2008. The article carried a "Magazine names Pirates medical staff best in MLB" headline and referred to Baseball Prospectus as "the magazine" four times in a dozen paragraphs, which is odd given that Baseball Prospectus is a hugely popular website that publishes several books each year and is also not a magazine. Is having editors really all that helpful?


  • Friend of AG.com Joe Mulder has started up a new site that's ... well, let's just say devoted to articles that can be read while sitting on the toilet. Fear not, however, because the site's motto is: "Don't worry, it's classy." Not only is Mulder a big Twins fan, he unnecessarily tried to coax me into plugging his new site by sending along this photo:

    Adam Carolla on the left and Bill Simmons on the right, with a guy in a Twins jersey in the middle. You could find a picture of some guy eating Chinese food and watching baseball on television while in bed next to Keeley Hazell, Marisa Miller, Elisha Cuthbert, Jenna Fischer, Kate Beckinsale, and Mila Kunis, and I'd be marginally less jealous (depending on how good the Chinese food looked).


  • Right back at you, Marisa. Oh, and there are a ton more where that came from.


  • I'd never seen a single episode of How I Met Your Mother before stumbling across the show Monday night, which wouldn't be noteworthy except for the fact that the title of the episode was "Little Minnesota" and the scene stumbled across revolved around people in New York hanging out at a Vikings bar. CBS will be sad to know that even tailoring programming specifically to me couldn't stop a channel change.


  • Friend of AG.com Steve Treder recently penned a good article over at The Hardball Times about the most interesting Rule 5 picks of the past three decades and a familiar name sits atop the list.


  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is T.I. performing "Whatever You Like" on Jimmy Kimmel Live:




  • Thursday, December 18, 2008

    My Week In Las Vegas: Poker At The Bellagio

    I'd never played no-limit hold 'em live before and the $2-$5 game at the Bellagio is a pretty intimidating place to start, but with the winter meetings essentially ending Thursday afternoon and my flight home departing at 1:00 a.m. it seemed like the correct way to spend my final night in Las Vegas. I'm thankful that my nerves didn't keep me from taking the plunge, because the game was incredibly juicy and the night was extremely fun.

    As a poker nut perhaps the best part of my $2-$5 no-limit table was the location right next to Bobby's Room, which allowed me to watch the most famous high-stakes game in the world and rub elbows with big-name pros like Doyle Brunson, Howard Lederer, Jennifer Harman (and her husband Marco Traniello), John Hennigan, David Oppenheim, Eli Elezra, Abe Mosseri, David Levi, Minh Ly, and even Men "The Master" Nguyen, who came about as close to anteing up in Bobby's Room as me.

    That probably doesn't sound all that exciting to most people, but the odds are that anyone with enough of a poker obsession to immediately recognize cash-game players like Mosseri and Oppenheim who haven't made a ton of televised tournament appearances will get a pretty huge thrill from the Bobby's Room experience. Brunson hobbling past to get to his table and Harman having a lengthy conversation while standing about two feet away definitely makes a $2-$5 no-limit game seem a lot more exciting.

    As for the actual $2-$5 no-limit game, it was very beatable. My table was almost as loose as they were talkative and several players seemed capable of basically giving away money after the flop, which had me convinced that the proper plan was to avoid big pre-flop coin flips and force them to make as many decisions as possible on every street. Of course, no battle plan survives contact with the enemy and all my small-ball tactics couldn't keep me from being forced into a big pre-flop pot almost immediately.

    After a couple of people limped into the pot from early position a very loose, aggressive player with tons of money in front of him raised to $30 from middle position. Dealt ace-king suited one off the button my first thought was to bump it to $100 or so, but rather than risk playing a huge pot before the flop I simply called in position. Unfortunately, the button and small blind also called right behind me, at which point the big blind thought for a few moments before shoving all-in for $225.

    For whatever reason it seemed obvious to me that the all-in didn't come from a monster hand and was simply a "squeeze play" attempting to pick up all the money already in the pot. It also seemed unlikely that the button or small blind would have called behind me if they had monster hands, so when the original raiser folded my decision basically became a math problem. There was $355 in the pot and it was $195 more for me to call.

    As long as the all-in raiser didn't have aces or kings I was facing a coin flip at worst and I'd be a pretty solid favorite in the fairly likely event that he had anything with an ace. Committing $225 before the flop with ace-king was the exact opposite of my plan, but giving up 1.8-to-1 odds in that spot seemed like it would have been a horrible decision. I called and thankfully my reads were correct, because both the button and small blind quickly folded and the all-in guy turned over queen-ten off-suit for a pure bluff.

    Being laid 1.8-to-1 odds on the call when ace-king suited actually has a 67-percent chance of beating queen-ten off-suit made me feel good about how things played out ... until the door card was a queen and he added a ten on the river for two-pair. Despite losing a $550 pot when I was a 2-to-1 favorite an hour into the session I still managed to leave with double my buy-in and did so without playing another big pot, which no doubt would have made Daniel Negreanu proud.

    Interestingly, my ace-king losing to queen-ten wasn't even close to the worst beat that ace-king took at the table. A couple hours after the aforementioned $550 pot, a guy in his late 20s wearing a hoodie sat down directly to my right with a ton of money and immediately began picking on the other players while seemingly trying to convince everyone that he was a pro. He quickly got into a huge pot with the nattily dressed middle-aged businessman sitting directly to my left, at which point the fun began.

    I'm not certain what they had because neither player ended up showing their hand, but it seemed to me that the wannabe pro flopped a set and the middle-aged guy rivered a straight on a paint-filled, four-line board. As he made the laydown against a big raise, the wannabe pro began berating the middle-aged guy, telling him "you were so behind that you didn't even know it" while calling him names like "a stupid tourist fish stick."

    That went on for several minutes and was definitely out of line, but the table remained silent and to his credit the middle-aged guy took it in stride (while raking in the big pot). Clearly upset and still mumbling insults under his breath, the wannabe pro took three hundred-dollar bills out of his backpack to reload. No more than five minutes later, with a few early position limpers in the pot, the wannabe pro put in an oversized raise to around $50 or so.

    At that point a quiet, seemingly tight player in his mid-20s re-raised all-in for about $250. The wannabe pro called immediately and slammed ace-king down on the table, angrily asking, "You got that beat?!" The other guy sheepishly turned over four-five off-suit for a ridiculous bluff and said, "Not yet, but you're gonna be really upset when this hand beats you." Because the poker gods have a sense of humor, the flop's door card was an ace ... followed by a deuce and a three to turn four-five into a flopped straight.

    As the guy with four-five raked the pot worth over $500, the wannabe pro remained surprisingly calm, grabbed a pack of cigarettes from his bag, and excused himself. As soon as he was out of sight the entire table broke out laughing in unison and the "stupid tourist fish stick" who hadn't uttered a single word since being berated during the previous big hand, said: "Is that what they call karma?" For some reason his ace-king losing was a lot more amusing than my ace-king losing, karma or not.



    Tuesday, December 16, 2008

    AG.com Live Chat Today at 2:00

    This week's Wednesday chat will be a couple hours later than usual due to work-related obligations, but as always I'll open the doors 15-20 minutes early and keep going until the questions stop rolling in.



    Monday, December 15, 2008

    My Week In Las Vegas: Interviewing Gardenhire

    During the winter meetings last week in Las Vegas each of the 30 big-league managers were ushered into the media room two at a time to hold informal, half-hour press conferences that were open to any media members interested in attending. Managers of large-market teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox draw huge crowds consisting of dozens of newspaper reporters and several television crews, but for small-market managers the gathering is usually single digits.

    Ron Gardenhire's session Tuesday afternoon was well-attended for a small-market team, especially given that the Twins weren't really involved in many juicy rumors that would have drawn reporters from other cities. LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Phil Miller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and Kelly Thesier of MLB.com were in attendance, along with Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune, a woman from Japan, and two other non-Minnesota writers. Oh, and me.

    At my first winter meetings two years ago in Orlando, Gardenhire's press conference probably featured more questions posed by me than by everyone else combined. Unlike the real reporters who speak to Gardenhire a hundred times per season, sitting across from him for a half-hour at the winter meetings likely represents my only interaction with the Twins' manager, so my plan was to once again dominate the question-asking load this year.

    Just like last time my notebook was filled with questions, but one by one they were asked by Neal and Miller. In fact, by the end of the session probably three-fourths of my prepared questions were posed by someone else, which suggests that either I've become more mainstream or the local beat writers have become more blogger-like. Or maybe a little bit of both. Whatever the case, each of my questions were posed to Gardenhire one way or another. And he even answered some of them.

    One of the great things about the manager press conferences at the winter meetings is that there is a stenographer on hand to provide a word-for-word transcript, which in Gardenhire's case included 37 questions and six pages of dialogue. Most of the other manager sessions were only 3-4 pages, so we definitely asked a lot of questions for a small group. Reprinting the entire session would be a bit much, even for a blog, so instead I'll go over some of the highlights.

    Prior to arriving at the winter meetings Gardenhire was in North Dakota attending an agricultural trade show and made headlines for indicating to a local reporter that Delmon Young was the odd man out in the Twins' crowded outfield. Gardenhire said that Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, and Michael Cuddyer "need to play every day" and "those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there." That caused a big stir back in the Twin Cities and led to all sorts of speculation about Young's future.

    Not surprisingly, before the winter meetings press conference officially began Gardenhire tried to make light of his comments about Young, joking that he "got it all stirred up in Fargo ... talking to farmers." He went on to say that the Twins "are pretty blessed to have four very good outfielders" and did plenty of backpedaling on the topic, but also stated that his original comments were not taken out of context and dropped more hints that Young remains the odd man out if "somebody came after us strong" via trade.

    Gardenhire expressed remorse for creating a situation where Young had to answer questions about his status on the team and also defended him by saying that he "played the last two months with a bad ankle and came to the ballpark every day." However, Gardenhire went on to say that Young "is a little more stubborn than some of the guys" while "we want him to flow into our program." He then went into further detail about Young's stubbornness:
    You have to understand, Delmon is one of these kids that's come up and has been the best player from when he was probably this little all the way up. And the two people that have been probably the biggest people in his life, his father and his brother, pretty talented, pretty knowledgeable baseball people. That's who he listened to, and our goal was to try to break into that and get him to understand what we are about.
    Gardenhire noted that he "got along fine all year" with Young and "liked the heck out of the young man" while calling him "a very talented young player." However, in reading between the lines and comparing how Gardenhire talked about Young to how he talks about most other players, it seems fairly clear to me that the Twins were less than thrilled with him both on and off the field. Whether that means they'll end up trading him remains to be seen, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's being shopped.

    At the time of the press conference the Twins hadn't yet re-signed Nick Punto, but Gardenhire made it very clear that they were trying to do so with the intention of handing him the starting job at shortstop. Gardenhire called Punto "a gamer" who "brings a lot to our baseball team" because "he can catch the ball, he can run the bases, and all of those things that I like to see." In fact, asked specifically about trading for Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson, Gardenhire replied: "We have a shortstop in Punto."

    I've always been curious about Gardenhire's assessment of defense and all the Punto talk gave me a chance to ask him about how the various shortstop options compared with the glove. Gardenhire said that Brendan Harris "is very consistent catching the ball" but "his range isn't as good as other guys." Matt Tolbert is "kind of a good range guy" with "a little erratic arm" but "is a young player still learning and probably the hardest worker." Not surprisingly, he praised Punto most:
    We have talented people that can play, but none of them are as solid as Nick Punto out there playing every day and knowing what to do and knowing how to control the game from shortstop, which is what I did. I ask my shortstop to do a lot, and that's control the game. I want him to take charge in the infield and that's why Nicky does a pretty good job, because he takes charge.
    I've long suggested that Gardenhire likes light-hitting middle infielders because he was one, so it was interesting to hear him note that Punto does "what I did" at shortstop. Also noteworthy is that he didn't mention Alexi Casilla when discussing the shortstops defensively. Asked if using Casilla at shortstop would be an option if the Twins failed to re-sign Punto, Gardenhire explained "that could happen" but "the way it was going along when we had Casilla playing healthy at second base" was his preference.

    Gardenhire was asked several questions about Jose Mijares' role for next year and refused to say that he has a bullpen job locked up despite emerging as the team's top setup man down the stretch. With that said, when asked if Mijares needed more time in the minors Gardenhire explained that "he had command of three pitches" and "took the ball in some very big situations" because he "didn't back off an inch" and "showed no fear." In other words, expect Mijares to be on the Opening Day roster.

    Asked about Boof Bonser's status Gardenhire indicated that he's penciled into the bullpen, but would still be an option to start if needed. My feeling is that Bonser has the stuff to succeed as a reliever long term despite his 5.88 ERA in 35 bullpen appearances, so it was good to hear that Gardenhire agrees. "Boof wanted to be a starter, but in the end he enjoyed taking the ball and blowing some people away," Gardenhire said. "Hopefully he'll accept that, because that's where he's at right now. He's valuable."

    Gardenhire said that Philip Humber is in the "same situation" as Bonser, because he's a career starter who is out of minor-league options and will probably be working in a "long relief, spot starter" role if he makes the Opening Day roster. "We know these guys are out of options," Gardenhire said. "Going to have to make a lot of tough decisions." Simple math suggests that if the Twins add a reliever between now and then Bonser and Humber may be battling for the final bullpen spot, with a trade for the loser.