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Friday, March 20, 2009
Link-O-RamaSantiago Casilla told me a few weeks ago when I asked if he'd seen Ynoa this winter that Ynoa has "beautiful eyes," which made me laugh, since I'd been asking about his pitching. (Casilla hadn't seen him pitch, as it turned out.) But Casilla wasn't just cracking a joke: Ynoa does have extraordinary eyes--aquamarine or sea green, something like that. Striking.Slusser may be on to something, as looking back at the Twins' biggest prospect busts of the past two decades shows a clear lack of beautiful eyes. If nothing else, that was clearly Willie Banks' problem. Our scouts saw him in the WBC and were very aggressive in their recommendation that we need to bring him in here so we could evaluate him ourselves. We've got several scouts who have seen him pitch who are convinced this guy needs to be part of our rotation competition.Obviously it's safe to bump the Royals up into fourth place now. Also, the above Kansas City Star article is worth reading, if only to see this picture of Ponson and his Ynoa-like eyes.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
5,000,000 Visitors and a Live ChatAt some point today this blog will surpass five million total visitors, which is even more impressive than it appears when you consider that at least 100,000 of those visits came from people who are not in my immediate family. Probably. I've spent this week trying to think of ways to retroactively charge everyone, say, a nickel per visit, but realistically that plan is flawed because my mom likely doesn't have that kind of cash lying around and collecting $5,000 from my 85-year-old grandfather seems excessive. Getting rich off this blog will sadly have to wait for another day, but I'm happy to say that the traffic here has risen every year since AG.com launched on August 1, 2002. It took over 30 months for this blog to reach one million visitors and at the time that total boggled my 21-year-old mind, but the second million arrived 17 months later and the third million showed up 12 months after that. Going from three million to four million was accomplished in 11 months and the most recent million took about 10 months. Quite a few people have suggested to me lately that reaching the five-million mark warrants some sort of celebration, but unfortunately laziness and lack of creativity have conspired to keep me from coming up with any good ideas. Instead, you merely get two incredibly boring paragraphs about blog traffic and a live chat at noon. Sorry. As always the live chat will open 15-20 minutes beforehand for pre-submitted questions and I'll keep going until you're too distracted by the NCAA tournament to keep asking stuff.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Dreams to RememberWhether due to the completion of my annual top-40 prospects series or last week's mention of David McCarty, several readers have inquired recently about the Twins' biggest prospect busts. There are two ways to look at that question, because there are basically two ways for a prospect to be considered a bust. One way is failing to pan out after being a first-round pick and the other way is failing to live up to the hype after being a highly ranked prospect. And some busts fit into both categories, of course. Researching the biggest busts in the Twins' five-decade history is a more difficult and time-consuming project than I'm ready for, but examining the past 15-20 years is pretty simple with the help of Baseball America's archived prospect rankings and Baseball-Reference.com's draft database. Because the jury is still out on most recent draft picks and prospects, let's focus on 1990-2003. Here are my choices for the Twins' biggest first-round busts during that time: YEAR PICKMcCarty might be considered the biggest draft bust in team history after going third overall in 1991 and using three straight top-six picks on Ryan Mills, B.J. Garbe, and Adam Johnson was a brutal stretch for the Twins that was thankfully snapped when they selected Joe Mauer first overall in 2001. Now here's a look at the players who failed to have much big-league success after being ranked among baseball's top 100 prospects by BA from 1990-2003: YEAR RANK YEAR RANKWillie Banks missed the 1990-2003 cutoff for draft busts listed above because he was picked in 1987, but just like McCarty he went No. 3 overall and then ranked as a top-20 prospect in back-to-back years. Luis Rivas was never a top-20 prospect, but he placed among BA's top 100 in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 before becoming the Official Whipping Boy of AG.com in mid-2002. Michael Restovich was a top-50 prospect in three straight seasons and ranked 68th in a fourth year. Also worth noting is that while he was never actually ranked by BA as Twins property, Frank Rodriguez ranked ninth in 1992, 25th in 1993, and 39th in 1994 before coming to Minnesota in the mid-1995 trade for Rick Aguilera. If you count Rodriguez as a Twins prospect, then he joins Mauer (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005), Francisco Liriano (2006), and Todd Walker (1997) as the team's top-10 prospects since 1990. Based on draft position and BA rankings, here are the 10 biggest Twins prospect busts in that time: 1. David McCarty .676 OPS in 1,647 PAIf you're curious, Delmon Young was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft and BA's prospect rankings pegged him No. 3 in 2004, No. 3 in 2005, No. 1 in 2006, and No. 3 in 2007.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: System OverviewPrevious Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2009: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 My annual series ranking and profiling the Twins' top 40 prospects concluded last month, so here's the complete list, along with links to each individual write-up and an overview of the whole system: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 21. Joe Benson, CFCarlos Gomez, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Brian Buscher, and Denard Span graduated to the big leagues after being included on this same list last year and Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, and Pat Neshek moved from this list to the majors in 2007, yet the Twins' farm system is stronger now than it was two years ago. Getting four prospects from the Mets for Johan Santana last winter played a part in the improvement, but Gomez is in the majors and the other three rank just 12th, 15th, and 30th. More than the haul for Santana, the Twins have improved the farm system with back-to-back drafts that so far at least look highly successful. Ben Revere was the Twins' first-round pick in 2007 and Aaron Hicks was their first rounder last year, and those two players now rank one-two on my list of the team's top prospects. Beyond that, losing Torii Hunter to free agency gave the Twins a pair of compensatory first-round picks that were used on Shooter Hunt and Carlos Gutierrez, who rank No. 5 and No. 13. Having essentially four first-round picks in the span of two years does an awful lot to restock a system and the Twins helped themselves even further in 2007 by landing Angel Morales in the third round and Michael McCardell in the sixth round. Add it all up and exactly half of the Twins' top 16 prospects came from the past two drafts or the Santana trade, including four of their top five. Despite the recent influx of talent the Twins' system is still far from elite and instead likely ranks right around average. Hicks, Revere, Morales, and Wilson Ramos give the Twins four high-upside position players, but none of them have played an inning above Single-A and aside from Danny Valencia or maybe Luke Hughes there's nothing in the system in terms of MLB-ready impact bats. Pitching is sort of the opposite story, as the Twins lack truly high-upside arms while guys like Kevin Mulvey, Jose Mijares, Robert Delaney, Brian Duensing, and Philip Humber are knocking on the door to the majors. Not so long ago outfield was a system-wide area of weakness for the Twins, but adding Gomez, Hicks, Revere, Morales, and Delmon Young during the past two years while watching Span seemingly turn his career around has changed that in a huge way. Toss in Jason Kubel's development and the presence of prospects Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Dustin Martin, David Winfree, Jason Pridie, and Daniel Ortiz, and the Twins boast as much young outfield talent as any organization in baseball. Unfortunately the Twins' long-standing lack of quality middle-infield prospects remains, although with Casilla perhaps emerging as the long-term second baseman the system's lack of standout shortstops is the bigger issue with Nick Punto currently holding down the fort. Trevor Plouffe hasn't developed as expected since being a 2004 first-round pick, Steven Tolleson looks more like a future utility man than starter, and 2008 second-round pick Tyler Ladendorf debuted by batting .204 at rookie-ball. While the Twins' farm system is likely right in the middle of the pack, the biggest problem with making team-to-team comparisons is that young non-prospects are totally ignored. Prospects are technically only "prospects" until they play regularly in the big leagues, at which point they simply become "young major leaguers." There aren't quite as many lists ranking those guys, but the future of a team is clearly about more than which youngsters retain prospect status by not using up rookie-of-the-year eligibility. For instance, had the Twins sent Gomez to Triple-A last year instead of making him their Opening Day center fielder or waited another two months to promote Span, their collection of "prospects" would look better without actually improving the team's long-term outlook much. With that in mind, here's a rough organization-wide view of key Twins players who are 29 years old or younger, including both prospects and non-prospects: CATCHER: FIRST BASE: SECOND BASE:Plenty of players aren't listed above, but that should provide an outline of the Twins' depth at each spot.
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E-Mail: aarongleeman@gmail.com Twitter: twitter.com/aarongleeman Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Kelsie Smith Kelly Thesier Seth Stohs Stick and Ball Guy Nick Nelson Parker Hageman Phil Mackey John Bonnes Edward Thoma Josh Johnson Howard Sinker Twinkie Town Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Circling the Bases Rotoworld Fan Graphs Baseball-Reference.com The Hardball Times Baseball America Baseball Think Factory Bill Simmons Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Big League Stew The Big Lead Deadspin Fanhouse Baseball Prospectus U.S.S. Mariner Al's Ramblings Sports By Brooks Baseball Musings MLB Trade Rumors Non-Sports Stuff MinnPost Alan Sepinwall David Brauer Adam Carolla Poker Road Gorilla Mask Wicked Chops Poker WWTDD? Popoholic The Superficial Steve Silver Tao of Poker ![]() Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Mila Kunis Elisha Cuthbert Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |