Between showing up to spring training out of shape and coughing up 10 runs in eight innings, Jose Mijares has done just about everything he can to wipe away an impressive September debut. All winter Ron Gardenhire and Bill Smith insisted that Mijares was hardly a lock to make the Opening Day roster, and he now looks likely to begin the year at Triple-A. Mijares' big-league debut certainly made it seem like he was ready to thrive, but prior to last year his minor-league track record was far from spectacular.

In fact, based on his multi-year track record Mijares is projected by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Think Factory to have ERAs of 5.51 and 6.23 this year. He's a pretty good bet to beat those projections, but Mijares has thrown 19 career innings above Double-A and giving him six weeks at Triple-A makes sense if the Twins think it would help him shed 20 pounds or start throwing strikes again. Meanwhile, as Mijares pitches and eats his way off the roster Brian Duensing is emerging as a bullpen alternative.

Duensing has made all of five relief appearances in four seasons as a pro and projects as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter long term, ranking 25th on my annual list of the Twins' top prospects. On the other hand he's already 26 years old, took a big step backward at Triple-A last season, and seemingly has little chance of claiming a rotation spot in the near future, so if the Twins think he has the potential to be an effective middle reliever that may be the best path for Duensing at this point.

However, his high-80s fastball doesn't figure to play a whole lot better as a setup man and left-handed batters hit .283 against Duensing last year, so he doesn't profile as a situational southpaw. Of course, baseball history is littered with mediocre starter prospects who had something click after a move to the bullpen and for better or worse Duensing is likely about as close to MLB ready as he ever will be. If the Twins go with 12 pitchers, it will come down to Duensing, Mijares, Jason Jones, or R.A. Dickey.

Gavin Floyd and the White Sox recently agreed to a four-year, $15.5 million deal that includes a team option for 2013, which is extremely similar to the four-year, $15.25 million contract that the Twins inked Scott Baker to earlier this month:

YEAR     SERVICE TIME              BAKER        FLOYD
2009     Pre-Arbitration           $0.75        $0.75
2010     Arbitration Year 1        $3.00        $2.75
2011     Arbitration Year 2        $5.00        $5.00
2012     Arbitration Year 3        $6.50        $7.00
2013     Free Agent Year 1         $9.25        $9.50

Both deals cover one year of pre-arbitration and three years of arbitration with a team option for the first year of free agency, and the money is essentially identical. Floyd is 16 months younger than Baker, so he may have more room to improve, and on the surface their 2008 seasons were comparable. Baker had a 3.45 ERA over 28 starts in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, while Floyd had a 3.87 ERA over 33 starts in a hitter-friendly ballpark. However, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) tells a much different story:

FIP                 2008     2007     CAREER
Scott Baker         3.79     3.89      4.05
Gavin Floyd         4.77     6.07      5.40

Floyd won 17 games last year and tossed 206 innings with a 3.87 ERA, but he also walked 70 batters while allowing the AL's most homers (30) and unearned runs (19). FIP suggests that his performance was more in line with an ERA a full run higher and his pre-2008 track record is even worse. Meanwhile, Baker has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in back-to-back seasons and has a career mark of 4.05 compared to his actual 4.23 ERA.

Floyd showed some definite signs of improvement after the All-Star break and could easily prove to be worth $25 million over the next five seasons, so the deal is hardly a bad one for the White Sox. With that said, Baker has clearly been the superior pitcher and from the Twins' point of view his deal now looks even better than it did three weeks ago. Interestingly, the White Sox also offered the Baker-Floyd deal to John Danks, who has the same service time, and he turned it down. Danks had a 3.44 FIP last year.

After nearly three years of struggling through post-concussion syndrome, Corey Koskie's comeback attempt with the Cubs unfortunately lasted all of three games. Koskie felt "weird" after diving for a ball at third base last week and decided to end his comeback rather than risk his health any further:

I really have no doubt in my mind that I would have made this team. The guys over here were impressed. I don't feel my skills were diminished. I don't feel there was much of a rust factor at all. It actually made it harder, but I know that was the right thing to do.

I kind of decided, after every play, do I want to be looking over my shoulder, [wondering] how do I feel? And with everything I've gone through the last 2 1/2 years, I know I don't want to go back there.

For the last 2 1/2 years, I've been talking to kids, talking to parents, telling all those people, "Is it really worth it, sending their kids back out to play?" I made the decision that this time it wasn't worth it. The risks outweighed the rewards of the situation.

A favorite of teammates and reporters alike who is one of the best, most underrated position players in Twins history, Koskie finishes his nine-year career as a .275/.367/.458 hitter and All-Star prankster.

LaVelle E. Neal III reports that shortstop prospect Paul Kelly has suffered yet another setback in his recovery from 2006 knee surgery. Kelly twice cracked my list of the Twins' top prospects, ranking 14th in 2007 and 24th in 2008, but has played a grand total of just nine games during the past two seasons and has now been "sent home for 2-3 months" after doctors determined that his knee still "is not ready for action." The only good news is that despite the lost seasons he won't be 23 years old until October.

This site was initially called Aaron's Baseball Blog before becoming AaronGleeman.com, so clearly my blog-naming skills aren't the world's greatest. Because of that I'm looking for some help in coming up with a solid name for a new baseball blog that's launching soon on NBCSports.com and MSNBC.com. My best idea so far is probably "Circling the Bases," but I'm pretty sure that you guys can come up with several hundred better options.

If we end up using your suggestion, you'll get a free one-year subscription to AaronGleeman.com along with my undying gratitude (both valued at $0.00). You can either e-mail me your blog name suggestion or post it via the comments section. Oh, and please try to come up with names that are free of profanity (or basically anything offensive) and have nothing to do with the Twins, difficult as that may be.

After meeting with various doctors about his back injury, Joe Mauer admitted Friday that he's unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and general manager Bill Smith explained that "there's not a timetable right now to say when he is going to be on the field." Being without Mauer for a significant chunk of the year would be a massive blow to the Twins' playoff chances, but if he's able to return after sitting out weeks rather than months the team is relatively well-equipped to handle his absence.

Mike Redmond will take over as the starter behind the plate, with either Jose Morales or Drew Butera (or perhaps both) serving as his backup. Redmond has hit .327/.382/.426 against left-handers over his career, including .350/.398/.439 from 2006-2008, so being without Mauer versus southpaws won't be a major downgrade for the Twins' lineup. Mauer posted flukishly big numbers versus lefties last year, but from 2006-2008 hit .329/.393/.432 against southpaws to nearly duplicate Redmond's career mark.

However, replacing Mauer against right-handers is a much different story. Mauer has hit .326/.417/.493 against righties over his career, including .324/.419/.481 during the past three years. Redmond has hit .273/.329/.332 against righties over his career, including .280/.313/.322 during the past three seasons. The gap from Mauer to Redmond versus righties figures to be about 100 points of on-base percentage and 160 points of slugging percentage, which would obviously cost the Twins a ton of runs.

To put those numbers into some context, consider that Justin Morneau is a career .281/.348/.498 hitter overall. Take away 100 points of on-base percentage and 160 points of slugging percentage, and you get a near-perfect fit for Juan Castro's career .228/.268/.331 line. Morales is a switch-hitter and batted .318/.373/.421 in 475 plate appearances against righties during two seasons at Triple-A, so whatever playing time he gets in place of Redmond should definitely come with a right-hander on the mound.

As for Butera, he's a right-handed batter with a Castro-like .215/.287/.324 line over 528 trips to the plate at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A, so he figures to be pretty awful regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher is throwing with and realistically should be viewed as little more than a defensive replacement. Being without Mauer will cost the Twins a significant number of runs, but determining an exact number is difficult without knowing specifically how Ron Gardenhire plans to replace him.

For instance, if Redmond starts against all lefties and splits starts verus righties with Morales, the duo is capable of matching and perhaps even slightly bettering the .257/.325/.390 line that MLB catchers as a whole produced last year. In that case, the dropoff from Mauer should be around one run each week. That may not sound like much, but one run per week represents a difference of 35-40 runs per season and each 10-run change is typically worth about one win. One run per week adds up in a hurry.

In other words, even if the Redmond-Morales platoon is utilized properly and both players perform well in their roles, being without Mauer would likely cost the Twins approximately one win every two months and 3-4 wins over the course of an entire season. Utilizing a Redmond-Morales platoon improperly by playing Redmond against most righties would increase the number of runs lost and pairing Redmond with Butera instead of Morales would magnify the dropoff even further.

All of which is a long way of saying that being without Mauer for a few weeks would cost runs, but being without Mauer for a few months would cost wins. Redmond is among baseball's best backup catchers and Morales has hit well enough at Triple-A to suggest that he's a capable backup too, so the Twins are as well-equipped to weather the loss of an MVP-caliber backstop as could be expected. Still, Mauer is so much better than the average catcher that well-equipped or not his absence is a huge blow.