AaronGleeman.com
Friday, April 03, 2009

Link-O-Rama

As if Opening Day wasn't enough to make for an exciting Monday, I've got a big announcement coming next week that smart readers can probably figure out on their own before then. In the meantime, here's the usual end-of-week linkage ...

  • If you asked me to make a list of the people most likely to be arrested for assaulting a prostitute who was trying to bite their tongue off, the creepy guy from the ShamWow! commercials would definitely be in the top five.


  • If this University of Melbourne study is accurate, then I'm the greatest employee of all time.


  • Driveline Mechanics examines the AL Central's starting pitching and concludes that all five rotations are actually pretty close, although Scott Baker's season-opening stint on the disabled list unfortunately may change that analysis.


  • Obviously being without Baker for any significant stretch would be a huge blow to the Twins' playoff chances, but R.A. Dickey is stepping into the rotation for him and watching a knuckleballer will at least be interesting even if he's not all that good.


  • One of my favorite writers, Eric Neel, and one of my favorite coaches, Mike D'Antoni, got together for an interesting 12-minute video interview and lengthy profile article over at ESPN.com.


  • I'm not much for artwork--a framed Homer Hanky from 1987 and a couple photographs taken by my uncle are literally the only things hanging on my walls here at The House That Blog Built--but I'm willing to pay big bucks for a print of this beauty.


  • Joe Posnanski started up a blog devoted to "the future of newspapers" that recently ran a guest post from none other than Bill James. My favorite line is his opener: "I hate to be the rational doomsayer, but in the modern world it is unnecessary to cut down trees to spread ideas."


  • On a related note, the Minneapolis Star Tribune has decided to make some content print-only by not posting it on the website. I'm certain that the idea behind the move is to convince everyone that buying the actual newspaper remains worthwhile, but for people like me that ship sailed a long time ago and print-only content just means that I'll probably never see it. The more time newspapers waste trying to salvage the ink-on-paper version of their content the bigger hole they'll eventually have to dig out of.


  • I'm not really sure why Kelly Brock is famous, but clearly it's deserved.


  • Derrick J. Lang of the Associated Press penned a nice article about the success that Adam Carolla is having with his podcast, which I've listened to every day since it started six weeks ago.


  • It's been so long since I've regularly watched ER that half the characters on last night's series finale were strangers to me, but I'm in complete agreement with the top two places on this list of the "hottest" women in the show's 15-season run. I've had a crush on Linda Cardellini since Freaks and Geeks and for reasons not entirely clear even to me Maura Tierney is right in my wheelhouse. Most underrated? Kellie Martin, who was an awesome guest on the Carolla-hosted Loveline like 10 years ago.


  • Sometimes the jokes just write themselves.


  • Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune wrote a great piece earlier this week about defense, discussing why errors totals are often misleading and quoting The Fielding Bible author John Dewan. Not only is it the type of article that you never would've seen in a major newspaper just a few years ago, Christensen supplemented the already thorough article with an even lengthier blog entry that has tons of interesting tidbits about the Twins' gloves.


  • On a related note, Torii Hunter explained to Sports Illustrated how he's still a much better fielder than Carlos Gomez by saying: "Just look at his errors." Not surprisingly, Hunter also took the opportunity to use the media to a) inform everyone what a tough guy he is, and b) tear down others. Unlike his range in center field, some things never change. Setting aside Hunter's same old shtick, Albert Chen's article about the advancements in fielding analysis is well worth a read.


  • Friend of AG.com Keith Arnold interviewed SI.com writer Jeff Pearlman, who has a new book out on Roger Clemens.


  • A couple new blogs to check out: Twayn's World and Donny Puck.


  • Since losing 90 pounds a few years ago and then regaining most of it right back, I've unsuccessfully tried to restart my weight-loss effort by announcing it here in the hopes that public humiliation could be a good motivator. Unfortunately my fatness seems to be immune to such things, but I'm going to give it yet another try starting on Opening Day. In fact, my latest "what the hell, maybe this will work" idea is to compare my weight to the Twins' record, trying to keep my pounds lost ahead of their games won.

    Hopefully by season's end both numbers will be around 95, although the Twins winning 82 games and me gaining another five pounds is probably more likely. For now, the Fat-O-Meter has been reset.


  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Ben Harper singing a stripped-down version of "Fool For A Lonesome Train":




  • Wednesday, April 01, 2009

    Twins Choose Morales Over Butera, Cut Mijares

    The Twins made what will likely be their second-to-last round of cuts yesterday morning, sending down Jose Mijares, Drew Butera, and Alejando Machado. Recent reports suggested that Butera's defensive prowess gave him a leg up on the backup catcher job while Joe Mauer is sidelined, but ultimately the Twins decided to go with Jose Morales as Mike Redmond's caddy. It was the correct call and Morales deserves the opportunity after hitting .310/.357/.405 in 164 games at Triple-A.

    Despite what the nice-looking batting averages at Rochester may have you believe Morales is far from an outstanding hitter and likely won't even produce league-average offense for a catcher, but compared to Butera he looks like Mike Piazza. Everyone raves about Butera's defense and the Twins clearly view him as a viable backup option despite a putrid .215/.303/.324 line in the minors, but pairing someone with Redmond makes the ability to fare reasonably well against righties more vital than a good glove.

    Beyond that, Morales is already 26 years old and has spent the past two seasons starting at Triple-A, so if the Twins weren't going to give him a chance now it was never going to happen. If concerns about his defense prove legitimate they can always turn to Butera and lean far more heavily on Redmond, but the Twins' best chance to minimize the loss of Mauer involves starting Redmond versus all lefties and giving Morales about half the starts versus righties, against whom he hit .318/.373/.421 at Triple-A.

    Meanwhile, sending Mijares to Triple-A despite his strong September leaves Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey competing for a potential 12th spot on the pitching staff, assuming that Philip Humber gets the nod as the 11th man. Kelly Thesier of MLB.com appeared before me on Seth Stohs' podcast last night and speculated that the Twins will indeed go with a 12th pitcher rather than a 14th hitter, and LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune has all but guaranteed that arrangement.

    Ron Gardenhire noted yesterday that he disagrees with general manager Bill Smith when it comes to the final bench spot, which almost certainly means that Gardenhire wants to keep Matt Tolbert while Smith wants to keep Brendan Harris. Gardenhire has clearly fallen for Tolbert much like he fell for Nick Punto years ago, but hopefully Smith wins the argument. Tolbert is better defensively, but he's not good enough to be an asset at shortstop and Harris has a sizable edge offensively.

    Plus, with minor-league options remaining Tolbert would remain in the organization if he doesn't make the team, allowing the Twins to retain both players. Harris is out of options and probably wouldn't pass through waivers unclaimed, so if the Twins don't give him a spot on the 25-man roster he'll likely either be traded or lost for nothing. Tolbert is a useful enough bench player, but keeping him around as the 25th man isn't worth losing middle-infield depth in the form of an arguably superior player.

    Of course, my preference would be to keep both Harris and Tolbert while beginning the season with an 11-man pitching staff, but based on Gardenhire's comments and various reports that no longer seems like a possibility. Finding consistent work for 12 pitchers is difficult at best, and choosing Tolbert while parting with Harris in order to keep Dickey around as a second long reliever or Duensing as a second lefty could come back to bite the Twins if something happens to Punto, Alexi Casilla, or Joe Crede.



    Tuesday, March 31, 2009

    Me on Seth Stohs' Podcast Tonight

    I'm one of three guests scheduled to appear tonight on Seth Stohs' weekly podcast, along with No. 39 prospect Dan Osterbrock and MLB.com beat reporter Kelly Thesier. I'm slated to come on around 9:40 p.m. central time, but the show starts at 9:00 p.m. and it's definitely worth tuning in for the whole thing.


    Monday, March 30, 2009

    Twins Swap Nolte for Jones, Narrow Roster Decisions

    As expected Rule 5 pick Jason Jones did not crack the Opening Day roster, but rather than offer him back to the Yankees for half of the original $50,000 fee required to select him the Twins instead worked out a trade to keep him in the organization. Jones isn't totally without potential and may be a decent fifth starter or long reliever at some point, but he's already 26 years old and has a 3.77 ERA in the minors that includes poor peripheral numbers and all of two appearances above Double-A.

    All of which is why it was disappointing to see that the player sent to the Yankees to retain Jones was Charles Nolte, who ranked No. 40 on my annual list of the Twins' top prospects. Certainly trading away the 40th-best prospect in the system isn't something that's likely to haunt any team and minor-league relievers like Nolte who've yet to advance past Single-A have an especially low likelihood of making an impact in the majors, but swapping him for a low-upside 26-year-old like Jones seems questionable.

    Jones will head to Triple-A, where he'll join Rochester's rotation while taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Many teams would love to stash a 26-year-old potential fifth starter or long reliever at Triple-A, but the Twins have a rotation of 27-and-under starters who're superior to Jones and already had Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing, and Anthony Swarzak waiting in the wings. Jones isn't clearly better than any of those guys, now or in the future. Meanwhile, here's part of my write-up on Nolte:
    Nolte has served up a grand total of one homer while facing 417 batters, which is what happens when 71.3 percent of your balls in play are on the ground. To put that stat into some context, consider that no MLB pitcher had a ground-ball rate of even 70 percent last season and no Twins pitcher was above 60 percent. Nolte has induced over five ground balls for every fly ball as a pro and that alone would make him someone to watch even without the low-90s fastball and strong strikeout rate.

    Most relievers who dominate in the low minors eventually fail to pan out and Nolte is a long way from Minnesota, but his combination of velocity, missed bats, and ground balls is much tougher to find than just another sparkling ERA at low Single-A. His lack of college experience suggests that Nolte could be a late bloomer and also means that his arm hasn't accumulated much mileage since the surgery four years ago, so if healthy he has a chance to move pretty quickly through the Twins' system.
    Jones is much more likely than Nolte to reach the majors by virtue of the fact that he's 26 years old, will begin this season at Triple-A, and owns a spot on the 40-man roster. Despite that Nolte may be more likely to make a significant impact in the majors by virtue of being three years younger than Jones with a much higher ceiling. Plus, Nolte is years from requiring a spot on the 40-man roster, whereas Jones is there now and must remain there unless the Twins want to risk losing him like the Yankees did.

    Pitchers just like Jones are available to the Twins on waivers all the time if they're willing to stick them on the 40-man roster and giving up an intriguing 23-year-old like Nolte to add yet another name to the already lengthy list of potential fifth starters in their mid-20s seems like short-sighted overkill. Odds are that parting with Nolte won't come back to bite the Twins, but why even take that chance when the odds are also that Jones will never successfully fill a meaningful role in Minnesota?

    By retaining Jones and sending him to Triple-A the Twins have narrowed the competition for a potential 12th spot on the pitching staff to Duensing, Jose Mijares, and R.A. Dickey. Mijares or Duensing would be a second left-hander in the bullpen alongside Craig Breslow, while Dickey would be a second long reliever paired with Humber. Cutting all three of them while going with 11 pitchers is also an option, in which case the 25th spot on the roster would come down to keeping Matt Tolbert or a third catcher.

    My feeling has always been that a 12-man pitching staff is beyond overkill, so the switch-hitting Tolbert seems like the right choice. He offers defensive versatility and at 27 years old there's no development to stall in a little-used bench role, although considering Ron Gardenhire's love for the poor man's Nick Punto odds are that Tolbert would see plenty of playing time anyway. Keeping a third catcher while Joe Mauer is out also makes some sense, particularly if that means fewer at-bats for Drew Butera.