AaronGleeman.com
Friday, November 13, 2009

Twitter Mailbag: Any Questions?

I'm having some computer problems that rule out putting together a decent Link-O-Rama for this week, but it does give me the opportunity to try something new. I've been on Twitter for a few months now and it recently occurred to me that putting together an AG.com mailbag entry consisting entirely of questions submitted via Twitter could be interesting. Plus, one issue with the traditional mailbag columns that I've done here in the past is overly long questions that are difficult to re-print, and Twitter forces brevity.

Here's how it'll work: If you have a question (or questions) about the Twins or the blog or really anything that someone might find interesting or amusing, go to my Twitter page and send me @ replies. And if you're not on Twitter and have no clue what an @ reply is, this will give you a chance to check it out. Or you can just let everyone else ask questions via Twitter and wait to read the mailbag when it shows up here next week. Pretty simple, right? If there's a decent response we'll make it a regular thing, so try it.

To submit questions for the mailbag, send them to @aarongleeman on Twitter.


Thursday, November 12, 2009

Realistic Free Agent Options: Third Base

Projecting which free agents the Twins will go after is difficult because their pursuit of low-cost options depends upon how the market shakes out and who drops into their price range. In the past five years they've also wasted money on a lengthy list of washed-up veterans like Tony Batista, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Craig Monroe, Juan Castro, Sidney Ponson, and Luis Ayala (among others) with only an occasional worthwhile signing like Joe Crede or Dennys Reyes sprinkled in.

For the most part the Twins have targeted only bargain-basement options while far more often than not choosing badly, which makes it kind of pointless to predict which free agents they'll pursue. So, instead I'll focus on which free agents they should pursue. I'm trying to be realistic with the recommendations, highlighting guys who may actually sign modest one- or two-year deals rather than dreaming about the top-tier free agents. With that in mind, here are five third basemen the Twins should look into ...

Adrian Beltre: It makes sense for the Twins to go after Beltre as a free agent after trying to trade for him in the past, and missing 50 games while hitting .265/.304/.379 has his value lower than ever. Shoulder problems make Beltre a risk and he's seemingly been banged up constantly in recent years, but this season was actually the first time since 2001 that he failed to play at least 140 games. Despite being around forever Beltre won't be 31 years old until April, so if healthy he's capable of a nice bounce back.

He'll never repeat the monster 2004 season that got him a huge contract, but in five years with Seattle he hit .266/.317/.442 despite playing half his games in a ballpark that wreaks havoc on right-handed power hitters. Long one of the game's elite defensive third basemen, Beltre's glove has been as good as ever during the past two seasons. Despite this year's injuries and poor production Beltre may still be out of the Twins' price range, but he'd be an ideal target if the market proves lacking.

Mark DeRosa: After a career-year in 2008 the Cubs traded DeRosa to the Indians for a trio of mid-level prospects. He had a nice first half as Cleveland collapsed, hitting .270/.342/.457, and was then dealt to St. Louis for two nice relief prospects. Unfortunately for the Cardinals he suffered a wrist injury almost immediately and batted just .228/.291/.405 in 68 games while spending time on the disabled list, and DeRosa underwent surgery last week.

Between the wrist problems and turning 35 years old DeRosa is a risk, but he's hit .281/.356/.448 over the past four seasons while playing everywhere but center field and catcher defensively. His glove isn't particularly good anywhere, but if healthy DeRosa is passable at third base and plenty productive from the right side of the plate, offering solid batting averages, 20-homer power, and good plate discipline. If a rough finish to 2009 has dropped him into the Twins' price range, a two-year deal might work.

Troy Glaus: Struggles returning from offseason shoulder surgery followed by back problems left Glaus on the sidelines until September and he played just 14 games overall, basically making it a lost year for the four-time All-Star. His health remains a huge question mark, but Glaus hit .270/.372/.483 with 27 homers in 151 games for the Cardinals last year to top an .800 OPS in a ninth straight season. For the 2000s he leads all MLB third baseman with 274 homers and ranks third in adjusted OPS+.

Glaus' ability to play third base is certainly in doubt, because in addition to the shoulder problems he's 33 years old, stands 6-foot-5, and weighs around 250 pounds. However, he was originally a shortstop and his glove has graded out reasonably well at the hot corner, rating as a positive in 2007 and 2008. In terms of risk versus reward Glaus has the highest upside of any free agent third baseman, because if healthy he's an elite right-handed power hitter with good plate discipline and a decent glove.

Melvin Mora: Baltimore officially made him a free agent last week by declining an $8 million option for 2010 and Mora isn't likely to be very picky coming off a career-worst season. He'll also be 38 years old soon, so there's good reason for teams like the Twins to stay away, but Mora would be a worthwhile pickup on a one-year deal. Despite hitting just .260/.321/.358 this year he remained decent defensively at third base and Mora hit .285/.342/.483 with 23 homers as recently as last season.

In fact, this season was the first time since 2001 that Mora failed to post an above average on-base percentage and he's hit a combined .276/.340/.427 in the five years since his monster 2004 campaign. I'd hang up the phone as soon as his agent mentioned anything more than a one-year deal, but it'd be worth a few million bucks to see if Mora can hit .275 with 15 homers, a solid on-base percentage, and average defense while the Twins wait on prospect Danny Valencia to take a step forward.

Joe Crede: When he signed with the Twins last winter Crede was coming off a year in which he played just 97 games because of injuries and hit .248 with 17 homers and a bad on-base percentage. Now he's coming off a season in which he played just 90 games because of injuries and hit .225 with 15 homers and a bad on-base percentage. In other words Crede performed more or less like the Twins should have expected and was worth the incentive-laden investment with his great defense factored in.

So will the Twins offer him another one-year contract? Probably not, but he makes just about as much sense now as he did last offseason and may even be cheaper this time around. When healthy Crede hits in the low .200s with good power and plays excellent defense at third base, but he's missed 234 of a possible 488 games in the past three years. He clearly can't be counted on, but if the Twins don't feel that Valencia is quite ready and miss out on the aforementioned options Crede for $2 million isn't bad.



Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Twins Notes: Hardy, Gomez, Cabrera, Pavano, and Cuddyer

  • Before settling on Carlos Gomez the Brewers were apparently deep in J.J. Hardy trade talks with an assortment of teams. For example, the Boston Globe reports that they turned down the Red Sox's offer of Michael Bowden, insisting instead on either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. According to the Toronto Globe and Mail they requested either Adam Lind or Travis Snider from the Blue Jays, but new general manager Alex Anthopoulos wouldn't bite.

    Hardy is coming off arguably the worst season of his career, so there's no doubt that the Brewers sold low, but obviously he still had plenty of value around baseball and Milwaukee clearly wasn't just looking to dump him. Bowden is a solid pitching prospect, and guys like Buchholz, Lind, Bard, or Snider are all very promising young building blocks. Gomez got a bum rap in Minnesota and is underrated in terms of current value and future upside, but I'd probably have traded him for any of those four players.


  • As you'd expect, Ron Gardenhire had some good and some not-so-good things to say about Gomez following the trade:
    He irritates people. Sometimes me. We've been trying to get him to calm down and get him to control the situations, and sometimes the situation controls him. There are times when you're like, "Go-Go, you have to see what we're trying to do here." We just had a 25-pitch inning from our pitcher, and he goes up and falls down swinging on the first pitch.

    Those things get you irritated as a manager, because we want him to recognize what we're doing in a game. But he can play, and he's fun to watch. He's very, very talented and has a lot to learn, yes, but like I said, when you see him out there in center field covering all that ground and then some of the offensive things he can do that other people can't do, that's why the guy is in the big leagues.
    Sounds about right. I'd have loved to see how differently things may have turned out for Gomez had he spent 2008 and perhaps even part of this season at Triple-A, but thanks to the Mets rushing him to the majors and the Twins feeling like they needed something immediate to show from the Johan Santana trade we'll never know. Certainly many of those issues that Gardenhire brings up would've been worth working on against International League pitchers. Oh well.


  • One of the bonuses of trading for Hardy was seemingly that it would keep the Twins from re-signing Orlando Cabrera, but we may not be out of those woods quite yet. Sid Hartman's latest column quotes Gardenhire as saying that he'd still like to bring Cabrera back to play second base, with Nick Punto at third base. Seriously. Ideally the Twins would demote Punto to a backup role, but if Gardenhire intends to start him somewhere second base is the lesser of all evils. Punto and Cabrera is just a bad idea.


  • Yesterday the Elias Sports Bureau released the annual compensation rankings for free agents, with some potential points of interest for the Twins. Cabrera qualified as Type A, but under the terms of his contract the Twins can't offer him arbitration and thus aren't eligible to get draft picks if/when he signs elsewhere. Possible middle-infield targets Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, and Marco Scutaro are also Type A, which no doubt lessens whatever odds the Twins had of signing them.

    Carl Pavano ranked as Type B, which is good news. Based on reports that the Twins are interested in re-signing him they seem likely to offer Pavano arbitration if needed, in which case they'll receive a draft pick between the first and second round if he opts to leave. Possible infield targets Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, Ronnie Belliard, Troy Glaus, and Melvin Mora are all also Type B, so the Twins could potentially pursue them without putting their first-round pick at risk.


  • Michael Cuddyer's contract forced the Twins to make a decision on his 2011 status within five days of the World Series and as expected they exercised his $10.5 million option. He's unlikely to actually be worth $10.5 million as a 32-year-old in 2011, but if healthy he should be worth something reasonably close to that and either way there was zero chance of the Twins choosing a $1 million buyout instead. If you're curious, Fan Graphs pegs Cuddyer as being worth about $9 million this year.


  • Baltimore claimed Armando Gabino off waivers after the Twins dropped him from the 40-man roster. When the Twins added Gabino to the 40-man roster a year ago I wrote that it was "confusing" because he "doesn't induce tons of ground balls or miss tons of bats and his control is spotty, which makes him look like a potential middle reliever at best." Since then he put together a solid season at Triple-A as a 25-year-old, but he flopped in a spot start for the Twins and isn't worth protecting with a roster spot.

    Justin Huber was also removed from the 40-man roster, but unlike Gabino he passed through waivers unclaimed and may choose to remain with the Twins on a minor-league deal. Huber is a useful player to have around as organizational depth and hit .273/.356/.482 with 22 homers in 121 games at Triple-A this season, but players like him are readily available for the most part. He's more or less the definition of a replacement-level first baseman.


  • In addition to dropping Gabino and Huber the Twins added Juan Morillo to the 40-man roster, which is interesting given that they claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in April only to pass him through waivers unclaimed two weeks later. Morillo racked up 87 strikeouts in 67 innings at Rochester and has a rare legitimate high-90s fastball, but his career-long control problems led to 51 walks in those same 67 innings and teams have had plenty of chances to claim him already. He's intriguing, but a long shot.


  • Hardy and Joe Mauer have apparently been friends since playing together on a junior national team as 15-year-olds and he seems very happy to be coming to Minnesota. He'll have to change his uniform number, though.


  • Stumbling across this stuff is always fun: Six years ago I ranked the top 50 prospects in baseball for The Hardball Times, and Hardy and Delmon Young were back-to-back at 30 and 29. Also of interest to Twins fans from that list? Huber at 44, Jesse Crain at 34, Justin Morneau at 12, and Mauer in the top spot with a write-up that began: "This is what a great prospect looks like."



  • Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.